· 个股论点

批评 $SIVE 财报沟通保守,建议激进并购与双重上市以加速扩张。

涉及标的:

相关概念: 隐形冠军Pluggable 可插拔光模块

中文翻译

如果我要批评 $SIVE 的财报: 1. 管理层低估了两个最重要的披露事项。 -> 6 个可插拔模块(Pluggable)的合作项目 -> 晶圆代工产能(Foundry capacity)(正值行业瓶颈期) 这是电话会议最重要的部分,本应重点阐述其经济规模。但我们只听到了2-3句话。 而且,不应该让 X 上的动漫头像来主要谈论这些影响。 2. CFO 需要重新培训或换人。 作为股东,听到律师式的回答令人愤怒。连我都对这句话感到恼火: “我们将评估时机,并决定是否在条件成熟时推进。” 现在他们申请双重上市以逃离充满敌意的瑞典市场,这应该是板上钉钉的事。 股东资助一家未来增长型公司,不是为了听律师式的回答。 再次强调,这可能是 CFO 给出的最糟糕的回答之一,需要坚定的承诺和更快的时间表。 3. 7000万美元应用于并购和双重上市。 -> 坦白说,现阶段专注于混合制造(Hybrid manufacturing)是资本浪费,听到这个我很失望。 虽然最终需要,但已有2家晶圆代工供应商。 -> 你拥有大量新资本和庞大的市值。 利用它进行类似 $AVGO 风格的收购,获取 Cloud Light 类的可插拔模块或光引擎(Optical engines)知识产权。 Lumilens 在2年内从0增长到55亿美元,现在已与超大规模云服务商合作。 Sivers 应尽快摆脱激光瓶颈,不要只做组件供应商。 最重要的是,谁在乎与客户竞争?如果客户说:“如果你做可插拔模块,我们将转向其他供应商购买激光”, 谁会?$LITE / $COHR / $AAOI 将激光转向内部使用。许多亚洲玩家已分配完毕。 尽可能利用当前的瓶颈,因为几乎没有合格的替代选择。 我确信所有合作伙伴都试图向上垂直整合到激光层级并进行竞争。 如果在 Q2 期间尝试了新的光引擎/可插拔模块收购,情况会大不相同。 _ TLDR: $SIVE 应旨在成为下一个 $LITE,像硅谷公司一样闪电扩张。 利用那7000万美元资本在下半年(H2)加速,至少完成准备。并预计纳斯达克上市在 2027 年上半年完成。 而不是那个时间段的“评估”。 并利用资本+股权向下扩展到光引擎/ELS/光收发器,使用你的股权估值,收购 Celestial/Ayar/Cloud Lite 类初创公司。 至于电话会议的措辞,市场关心的是晶圆代工分配+6家可插拔模块玩家的经济价值,而不是其他业务部门。 $SIVE 迄今为止极其保守,但 他们需要加速并向面向未来的美国/国际股东沟通。 而不是面向关心 Q2/滚动十二个月(TTM)收入的当地瑞典受众。 否则他们将被视为亚洲组件供应商,并最终被估值为欧洲公司。

英文原文

If I had to be critical of $SIVE earnings: 1. Management underweighted the two disclosures that matter most. -> 6 pluggable engagements -> Foundry capacity (during an industry bottleneck) That's the most important part of the call and should have been the focus to provide economic scale of them. But we got 2-3 sentences about it. And it shouldn't take an Anime avatar on X to talk most about the implications of those. 2. CFO needs retraining or bring on a new one. The lawyer like answers were infuriating to listen to as a shareholder. Even I got pissed off with this statement: "we will evaluate the timing and decide whether the conditions are right to move forward at that particular time." It should be a 100% given by now they file for dual listing to escape hostile Swedish markets. Shareholders didn't fund a future growth type company to hear lawyer-like answers. Again, this was probably one of the worst answers the CFO could have gave and there needs to be firm commitment along with faster timelines. 3. $70M should have gone toward M&A and dual listing. -> Brutally honestly speaking, it's a waste of capital to focus on hybrid manufacturing at this stage and I was disappointed to hear this during this timeframe. It's eventually needed but with 2 foundry suppliers -> You have a ton of new capital and large marketcap. Use it to pull $AVGO style acquisitions of Cloud Light style IP for pluggables or optical engines. Lumilens went from 0 -> $5.5B in 2 years and now with hyperscaler engagements. Sivers should expand out of the laser chokepoint as fast as possible and not stay just a component vendor. And most of all, who cares about competing with customers? If a customer says: "if you do pluggables, we'll go with other players for lasers" who?? $LITE / $COHR / $AAOI reroutes their lasers to internal usage. Lot of your Asian players already allocated. Abuse the current bottleneck as much as possible because there's almost no qualified choices left. And I'm certain all the partners are trying to vertically integrate upward toward the laser level too and compete. If there was a new OE/pluggable accusation attempted during the Q2 time frame, things would have been a lot different. _ TLDR: $SIVE should aim to be the next $LITE and blitzscale like a Silicon Valley company. Use that $70m capital to move faster H2, and at the bare minimum finish readiness then. And expect NASDAQ listing to be finished H1 2027. Not "evaluation" at that timeframe. And use the capital + equity to expand downward into optical engines/ELS/optical transceivers using your equity valuation, and buy a Celestial/Ayar/Cloud Lite type startup. As for the wording of the call, markets care about economic value of the foundry allocation + 6 pluggable players, not other business segments. $SIVE has been extremely conservative to date, but they need to speed up and communicate to forward looking US/Int shareholders. Not geared toward local Swedish audiences who care about Q2/TTM revenue. Otherwise they'll be treated like an Asian component supplier and eventually be valued like an EU one.

在 X 上查看原推 ↗