个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2504 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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博主坦言难以抗拒将仓位全仓转入Meta的诱惑。
@CB3409 我确实睡觉，但当我想把仓位全部转入 $META 的诱惑袭来时，这很难做到。
英文原文
@CB3409 I do sleep, but it’s hard to when I get the temptation to just full port it into $META
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博主分享国防及半导体个股观点，计划加仓DPRO和SKYT。
@WaltzDisneyz @itachidata28 我之前发过关于 1) 供应链 2) 国防 3) 美国本土制造半导体 的帖子。但个人而言，$OSS 用于国防，$LPTH 因为那家伙特定跌了 5% 简直太蠢了。正打算加仓 $DPRO 和 $SKYT，因为它们都跌了 4-6%+。
英文原文
@WaltzDisneyz @itachidata28 I made a post about it earlier regarding 1) supply chains 2) defense 3) made in America semis But personally $OSS for defense, $LPTH since that one dropping 5% in specific just stupid. Was looking to scale up $DPRO and $SKYT since they’re both down 4-6%+
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分析AVAV、AIRO、DPRO在美军复制者计划中的角色及风险收益特征。
$AVAV 绝对是的。它是黄金标准，并且已经是“复制者”(Replicator) 计划的一部分。（因此与 $KTOS 一起已经取得了成功） $AIRO 用于反无人机“复制者”(Replicator)，具有最高的上行潜力和最低的下行风险。 我稍后会写一篇关于 $DPRO 的文章，但它让我想起了早期阶段的 $RKLB，上行空间非常具有投机性。
英文原文
$AVAV definitely. It’s the gold standard and is already part of replicator. (So already successful alongside $KTOS) $AIRO is for counter UAV replicator, highest potential for lowest downside risk. I’ll do a write up on $DPRO later but it reminds me of early stage $RKLB, very speculative upside.
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ONDS估值虽高，但作为独立标的仍具合理性。
@platochi @bennybigbull 与其他无人机公司如 $AIRO 相比，$ONDS 的估值（市销率）显得昂贵（28倍 vs 2.5倍）。我想表达的是，单看它本身，这是一个合理的选股标的。
英文原文
@platochi @bennybigbull $ONDS is richly priced compared to other drone companies like $AIRO (28 vs 2.5 p/s) Standalone it’s a justified pick, is what I’m trying to say.
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作者认为$ONDS估值过高，建议关注其他估值更低的无人机股。
个人而言，我觉得与其他无人机公司相比，$ONDS 的定价偏高。 我持有 $AVAV、$DPRO、$KTOS 和 $AIRO 以获取无人机领域的敞口。 （这只是我凭记忆随口一说，别太当真）Ondas 目前的前瞻性企业价值/收入倍数（Forward EV/revenue multiples）约为 28 倍以上。即使是 AVAV，作为“复制者”（Replicator）项目的一部分，其倍数也仅为 8-9 倍。 Airo 则是针对“复制者 2.0”的反无人机（Counter UAV）系统。 当我买入 $AIRO 时，其前瞻性市销率（Forward P/S）约为 2.5 倍（现在可能更高，也许是 3-4 倍）。 甚至 $DPRO 根据一些收入计算，可能也只有 2.8 倍左右。 所以在我看来，其他无人机公司有更高的上行空间。
英文原文
Personally speaking, I feel like $ONDS is richly priced compared to other drone companies. I have $AVAV, $DPRO, $KTOS, and $AIRO for drone exposure. (Just going off the top of my head, dont take this too literally) Fwd EV/revenue multiples was ~28s+ now for Ondas. Even AVAV was 8-9 and they were in the replicator program. Airo was for counter UAV for replicator 2. When I bought $AIRO was trading at ~2.5 fwd p/s (probably higher now, maybe 3-4's). Even $DPRO might even be potential 2.8 from some rev calculations. So IMO higher upside with other drone companies.
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建议买入错杀标的而非传统对冲，并认可CRML的稀土受益逻辑。
我想指出一些超额收益机会：买入因错误原因下跌8%的标的（例如用于国防的美国无人机），而非像 $GLD / $SLV 这样的已知对冲工具。不过，如果讨论受益者，你提到的 $CRML 很棒，因为 Tanbreez 及其稀土矿藏。
英文原文
I just wanted to point out some alpha regarding buying into things down 8% for the wrong reason (eg. US drones for defense) rather than known hedges like $GLD / $SLV. But yes, if we talked about beneficiaries, your mentions like $CRML, bc of Tanbreez and all its rare earth deposits are great!
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格陵兰关税引发恐慌，建议逢低买入美国防、关键材料及本土半导体股。
美股期货因格陵兰关税新闻下跌。 许多欧洲股市热门股现下跌： $ONDS (-8.55%) 或 $RKLB (-7.65%)。 以下是如何从该局势中潜在获利的方法： 第一层：供应链 这是与北约盟友的争端。这威胁到供应链。 许多美国国防系统依赖欧洲组件（德国光学器件、英国/荷兰芯片）。格陵兰是稀土元素(REEs)的巨大潜在来源。 格陵兰受阻意味着美国必须依赖国内来源。 与欧洲的贸易战给国防承包商和其他部门带来混乱。 如果下跌，美国关键材料供应商如 $MP 或瓶颈对冲如 $LPTH 将是良好的逢低买入机会。 第二层：美国直接冲突/战争 战争板块如 ($AVAV 或 $KTOS) 实际上极具韧性，因为从根本上说，争端涉及美国国家安全。 欧洲（莱茵金属、萨博）国防股正在反弹，而美国（如 $ONDS）遭抛售。美国代码被恐惧的欧洲散户投资者错误定价。 国防股可能在“避险”恐慌初期下跌，但它们实际上最终成为与北约盟友紧张关系的主要受益者。（特朗普的事你无法预知）。 如果隔夜或盘前出现大幅下跌，如果发生无差别抛售，这可能是一个良好的买入机会。 第三层：美国半导体供应链/晶圆厂 与欧洲（特别是荷兰/ASML 和德国/蔡司）的贸易战严重损害半导体供应链。 在所有这些痛苦中，垂直整合的“美国制造”硬件公司将受益最大。 如果下跌，像 $COHR、$AMKR 或美国晶圆厂如 $INTC、$GFS 这样的公司可能是良好的逢低买入机会。 这更微妙，因为市场认为它们仍然有风险，因为许多“国内”玩家仍依赖欧洲进口（ASML 光刻、蔡司光学）来运营。 然而，这是关于供应链主权的美国国家安全，这是对美国政府不会让这些公司失败（例如英特尔的国家安全豁免）的美国政策的非对称性赌注。 可能避免： 科技/SaaS 的接飞刀，因为它们被视为“风险资产”，通常被抛售最多，除非情况极端。 _ 鉴于流动性低，欧洲市场可能正在恐慌性抛售至真空。 套利机器人可能会迫使美国隔夜价格下跌以匹配欧洲/期货的“隐含价格”。 然而，如果实际受益于该局势的板块出现跳空低开，这可能是极好的机会。 方向上，市场可能会看跌。 但预计许多这些 -7% 或 -9% 的数字将恢复到合理水平如 -1.5%，有些甚至翻正。
英文原文
US Futures are down due to Greenland Tariff news. Many popular names on EU stock exchanges are now down: $ONDS (-8.55%) or $RKLB (-7.65%). Here's how to potentially profit off the situation: Tier 1: Supply Chains This is a dispute with NATO Allies. This threatens supply chains. Many US defense systems rely on European components (optics from Germany, chips from UK/Netherlands). Greenland is a massive potential source of Rare Earth Elements (REEs). The blockage of Greenland means the US must rely on domestic sources. A trade war with Europe creates chaos for defense contractors and other sectors. US Critical Material providers like $MP or bottleneck hedges like $LPTH would be a good dip buying opportunity if they drop. Tier 2: US Direct Conflict/War War sectors like ( $AVAV or $KTOS ) are actually extremely resilient since fundamentally, the dispute goes back to US National Security. EU (Rheinmetall, SAAB) defense stocks are rallying, while US ( eg. $ONDS ) got sold off. US tickers are being mispriced by fearful European retail investors. Defense stocks might drop initially during "risk-off" panic but they actually end up being the primary beneficiaries of the tension with NATO allies. (you never know with Trump). Any large drops (if they happen) overnight or pre-market, this might be a good buying opportunity if there's an indiscriminate selloff. Tier 3: US Semi Supply Chains/Foundry A trade war with Europe (specifically the Netherlands/ASML and Germany/Zeiss) hurts the semiconductor supply chain immensely. Through all this pain, the vertically integrated "Made in America" hardware companies would benefit the most. Companies like $COHR, $AMKR, or US foundries like $INTC, $GFS might be a good dip buy if they drop. This is more nuanced since markets think they're still risky because a lot of the "domestic" players still rely on European imports (ASML lithography, Zeiss optics) to operate. However, this is US national security for supply chain sovereignty and this is an asymmetrical bet on US policy that they won't let these companies fail (eg. National Security Exemptions for Intel). Probably avoid: Falling knives on Tech/SaaS since they're considered "risk assets" and usually get sold off the most, unless it goes extreme. _ European markets are likely panic-selling into a void, given low liquidity. The arbitrage bots might force US overnight prices down to match the "implied prices" of European/Futures. However, this might be the excellent opportunity if there's a gap-down on names on sectors that actually benefit from the situation. Directionality, markets are likely going to see red. But expect many of these -7% or -9% numbers to recover to reasonable levels like -1.5%, with some flipping positive.
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POET虽受散户追捧，但被视为未来互连瓶颈的替代方案。
@train9898 $POET 不幸的是，它是 WSB/X 上散户最喜爱的十大股票之一，所以并不算是低调。但它们是未来 1-2 年内解决互连瓶颈(interconnect bottleneck)的替代方案之一。
英文原文
@train9898 $POET unfortunately is retail’s top 10 favorite stocks on WSB/X so not exactly under the radar. But they’re one of the workarounds to inp in 1-2 years time
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看好格陵兰局势利好国防及稀土，认为对AI交易仅为噪音。
我是一个看好格陵兰贸易紧张局势的看多者。 美国国防股如 $UAVS 和 $DPRO 可能会受益。稀土/关键材料也是如此。 但无法对 $NVO 的制药看多者、欧洲奢侈品如 $LVMH，或者可能的大科技股说同样的话。 正如你提到的，我同意这对 AI 交易来说只是噪音。
英文原文
I'm a bull that's excited about Greenland trade tensions. US defense like $UAVS and $DPRO are likely to benefit. Same with rare earth/critical materials. Can't say the same about the pharma bulls in $NVO, European luxury like $LVMH, or possibly big tech. As you mentioned, I agree it's just noise to the AI trade.
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澄清LEU指HALEU，指出Centrus是美国唯一获此许可的公司。
@hrtflutter 哎呀，$LEU 指的是 HALEU（高丰度低浓缩铀）。Centrus Energy 目前是美国唯一一家拥有将铀浓缩至 HALEU 水平许可证的公司。
英文原文
@hrtflutter Whoops, $LEU for HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium). Centrus Energy is currently the only company in the U.S. with a license to enrich uranium to HALEU levels.
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警告勿盲目买入PLSR，因氦3分离技术未成熟且成本不明。
特朗普的关税政策对我来说是个谜。 另外提醒一下那些认为应该无脑冲入 $PLSR 的人： - 没人知道储层中氦-3（Helium-3）的储量 - 从氦-4（Helium-4）中分离氦-3 的成本可能高得离谱（没人知道成本结构），甚至可能根本不值得尝试 他们实际上说过“目前不存在大规模分离氦-3 和氦-4 的商业技术”。 这就好比从海水中分离盐分来制造纯净水并出售。 因此，尽管坐拥潜在的金矿，其市值仍仅为 1.4 亿美元（如果他们真的尝试，预计会有大量稀释）。
英文原文
Trump's tariff policies are an engima to me. Also just a heads up for people who think they should ape into $PLSR - Nobody knows the volume of helium-3 in the reservoir - separating helium-3 from helium-4 might be insanely expensive (nobody knows cost structure) and it might be worthless to attempt They've actually said "no commercial technology currently exists to separate He-3 from He-4 at scale" For example separating salt from the ocean to make purified water and selling that. Hence why it's still $140m MC despite sitting on a potential gold mine (and if they do attempt it expect a TON of dilution).
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探讨氦-3对量子国防的重要性，关注$PLSR的氦气储层潜力。
它们之所以被称为瓶颈，是因为对各自垂直领域至关重要。但氦-3(He-3)对美国量子/国防产业确实如此。 $PLSR 看起来相当有趣，因为他们在明尼苏达州发现了一个氦气储层。 据说其中可能含有大量的氦-3，但我不太确定这是否属实。
英文原文
They're all called bottlenecks because they're critical for their specific vertical. But helium-3 definitely is for US quantum/defense industry. $PLSR seems quite interesting since they discovered a helium reservoir in Minnesota. Apparently it's possible that it contains significant amounts of Helium-3 but I'm not quite sure if it's true.
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分析$FEIM因太空业务瓶颈受益，虽涨幅巨大但属小众领域。
鉴于其太空业务敞口，我相信你会喜欢 $FEIM。 今年它已经上涨了 241%，所以我相信市场已经开始慢慢意识到瓶颈所在。 它们被 NASA 和 $LMT 大量使用。我猜测它们也被用于 SpaceX 的 Starshield，作为原子钟和时间源，以防 GPS 被干扰或摧毁。 但在我看来，这仍然是一个非常小众的领域。
英文原文
I'm sure you would like $FEIM given its space exposure. It's already up 241% this year so I'm sure markets have slowly started to realize the bottleneck They're heavily used for Nasa, $LMT. And my guess was SpaceX's Starshield for atomic clocks and time if GPS is jammed/destroyed. But again very niche imo.
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看好$LPTH，认为美军将弃用中国锗并锁定其黑钻石材料。
$LPTH 令人惊叹。我的核心论点是，大多数美国公司将脱离中国锗（Germanium）供应链（尤其是国防领域），并在未来两年内（大部分催化剂在此期间）采用 Lightpath 的黑钻石材料。他们拥有四年的窗口期，直到韩国 Zinc 在 2030 年开始扩产。但到那时，我假设许多供应商（如从洛克希德·马丁的“毒刺”导弹到 Andruil Ghost）的生产已锁定 Lightpath 的材料。
英文原文
$LPTH is incredible. My thesis is most US companies will move off China germanium supply chains (especially for defense) and use Lightpath black diamond in the next 2 years (most of the catalysts). They have a 4 year window until Korea Zinc starts ramping up in 2030. But by that time I'd assume many vendors like Lockheed Stingers to Andruil Ghost are locked into Lightpath's material for production.
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借皮尔斯·摩根骨折事件，推荐做多骨科器械股SYK和ZBH。
皮尔斯·摩根（Piers Morgan）股骨骨折： 你可能想知道如何从中获利？ $SYK 生产 Gamma Nail，这是修复股骨骨折最常用的髓内钉（Intramedullary Nails）之一。 $ZBH 也生产 Natural Nail 系统以及各种用于重建粉碎性股骨骨折的接骨板系统（Plating Systems）。 鉴于收入可能增长，这些可能是不错的做多标的。
英文原文
Piers Morgan fractured their femur: You might be wondering how to profit off this? $SYK produces Gamma Nail, which is one of the most commonly used intramedullary nails for fixing femur fractures. $ZBH also produce the Natural Nail system and various plating systems used to reconstruct shattered femurs. These might be good longs from an uptick in revenue
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指出Lightpath($LPTH)有9000万积压订单，但DoD不管理其估值。
我只是在这里指出关键瓶颈以及身处其中的参与者。 不幸的是，我完全不知道美国国防部(DoD)的人心里在想什么。 我认为他们并不主动关心或管理市场给 $LPTH 定价的估值，因为他们不是对冲基金。Lightpath 确实有 9000 万美元的积压订单，所以他们正在接受长期订单。
英文原文
I'm just here to point out critical bottlenecks and the players that sit inside them. Unfortunately, I have no idea what goes on in the minds of people at DoD. I don't think they actively care or manage what valuations markets price $LPTH at since they're not a hedge fund. Lightpath does have a $90M backlog, so they are taking in longer term orders.
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LPTH因独家锗替代技术成美军关键单一来源供应商，具极高战略价值。
$LPTH 不仅仅重要。 Lightpath 是美国国防部（战部）的关键故障点。 “锗”是 AI 领域的磷化铟(InP)，也是洛克希德“毒刺”导弹和 Anduril Ghost / $ONDS 无人机的关键材料。 锗的价格已翻三倍（2025/26年约 $4,150/公斤+）。 美国面临需求冲击，因为美国拥有量为零： 美国有零产能（是的，韩国 Zinc 在田纳西州有项目，但直到 2030 年才投产）。 美国开采锗矿石（阿拉斯加的 Red Dog 矿），但我们没有大规模将其精炼成金属的工业能力。 60-70% 的精炼锗来自中国，其余来自加拿大（Teck）、比利时（Umicore）和俄罗斯（也被禁运）。 而且中国禁止向美国军事项目出口。 从现在（2026年1月）到 2029/2030 年，实际上没有新的国内产能上线。 需求冲击： 就在供应切断的那一刻，三个领域的需求爆炸式增长： - AI 数据中心：锗是高速光纤电缆的必需品。 - 太空：它是卫星太阳能电池（如 Starlink 等）的主要材料。 - 国防（最大的）：每个 Anduril 无人机、夜视仪和导弹导引头传统上都使用锗透镜。 $LPTH 目前对五角大楼 + 美国国家安全具有生存级关键意义。你可能认为其他公司可以制造“无锗”玻璃，但这很难。 Lightpath 使用的特定材料 Black Diamond，是由美国海军研究实验室发明的。Lightpath 拥有商业化 Black Diamond 的独家许可。 如果洛克希德或雷神想要制造使用这种特定军用级锗替代品的导弹导引头，他们依法必须从 Lightpath 购买。 没有第二来源。 $LPTH 是许多先进武器的单一来源供应商。 示例 1）盟友正在囤积短程拦截器，例如“毒刺”导弹。盟友现在需要建造数千枚，但我们无法获得中国锗来制造导引头。 Lightpath 是洛克希德等公司的光学组件“单一来源”供应商。 示例 2）无人机公司制造“蓝色 UAS”（政府批准的无人机）。为了不被列入黑名单，他们必须移除中国部件。 像 $ONDS 或 $UMAC 这样的公司可能已将热成像相机供应单一来源给 Lightpath，以避免在无人机组件中使用中国供应链。 2026年（现在）：中国禁止出口。美国库存极低。 2030年（最早）：田纳西州的新“超级冶炼厂”（韩国 Zinc 交易）投产，实现国内锗精炼。 缺口：未来 4 年，美国没有国内金属供应。 这种情况看似荒谬，但由于美国关闭了大多数锌冶炼厂，我们意外地也关闭了锗供应。30年来，将矿石运往中国/加拿大比在这里处理 EPA 法规更便宜。 美国军方目前的处境是：拥有阿拉斯加的原始矿石，但必须请求加拿大或等待一家韩国公司（2030年）将其转化为导弹导引头。 人们认为 $LPTH 是某种廉价仙股。但它实际上现在是美国国家安全的中心。 Lightpath 是西方国家绕过锗瓶颈的主要方式，市值仅 $6.7 亿。
英文原文
$LPTH isn't just important. Lighpath is a critical point of failure for the US Dpt of War. "Germanium" is the AI's InP for Lockheed Stinger Missiles and Anduril Ghost / $ONDS Drones. Germanium's price tripled (~$4,150/kg+ in 2025/26). There is a demand shock since US has 0: The US has zero (Yes Korea Zinc in TN, but not until 2030). US mines germanium ore (Red Dog mine in Alaska), but we do not have the industrial capacity to refine it into metal at scale. 60-70% of refined Germanium comes from China and the rest elsewhere like Canada (Teck), Belgium (Umicore), and Russia (also banned). And China banned exports to US military programs. There is effectively no new domestic capacity coming online between now (Jan 2026) and 2029/2030. The Demand Shock: At the exact moment supply was cut, demand exploded from three sectors: - AI Data Centers: Germanium is essential for high-speed fiber optic cables. - Space: It is the primary material for satellite solar cells (Starlink, etc.). - Defense (The Big One): Every thermal Andruil drone, night vision goggle, and missile seeker head traditionally uses a Germanium lens. $LPTH Is existentially critical to the Pentagon + US National Security right now. You might think other companies can just make "germanium-free" glass, but it's hard. The specific material Lightpath uses called Black Diamond, was invented by the US Naval Research Lab. Lightpath holds the exclusive license to commercialize BLack Diamond. If Lockheed or Raytheon wants to build a missile seeker that uses this specific, military-grade germanium replacement, they legally have to buy it from Lightpath. There is no second source. $LPTH is the Sole Source supplier of many advanced weapons. Example 1) Allies are stockpiling Short Range Interceptor, eg. Stinger Missiles. Allies need to build thousands more now, but we can't get the Chinese germanium to build the seekers. Lightpath is the "sole source" supplier for the optical assembly for companies like Lockheed. Example 2) Drone companies build "Blue UAS" (government-approved drones). To stay off the blacklist, they must remove Chinese parts. Companies like $ONDS or $UMAC have likely sole-sourced their thermal camera supply to Lightpath to not use Chinese supply chains in their drone components. 2026 (Now): China bans exports. US stockpiles are critically low. 2030 (Earliest): The new "Super Smelter" in Tennessee (Korea Zinc deal) comes online to refine germanium domestically. The Gap: For the next 4 years, the US has no domestic metal. This situation seems absurd, but since the US closed most of its Zinc smelters, so we accidentally closed our Germanium supply with them. And for 30 years, it was cheaper to ship the ore to China/Canada than to deal with EPA regulations to refine it here. The US military is currently in a position where it has the raw ore in Alaska but has to ask Canada or wait for a Korean company (in 2030) to turn it into a missile seeker. People think $LPTH some cheap penny stock. But it's actually central to US national security now. Lightpath it's the main way around the Germanium chokepoint for Western countries at a small $670M MC.
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看好SpaceX创始人埃隆推动公司市值达万亿。
@RKLBMan 埃隆正不惜一切代价试图让市值达到1万亿美元！ 我很想看到这一幕成真，他是我们这一代的爱迪生。
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@RKLBMan Elon is trying to hit $1T by any means necessary! I’d be interested in seeing it happen, the guy is the modern Edison of our generation
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英特尔因涉国家安全获两党支持，政策利好预期持续。
@traderofstox 我认为关于 $INTC 的问题在于，确保美国本土制造能力（如《芯片法案》）是两党共识。而采取持有10%股份等方式则不然。无论如何，鉴于英特尔已成为国家安全问题，预计其支持将在任何政府任期内持续。
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@traderofstox I think the issue regarding $INTC is bipartisan ensuring American domestic capability like CHIPS act. Other ways like taking a 10% stake, not so much. Either way support is expected to continue in any administration since Intel is now a national security issue.
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看好三星、台积电和英特尔，认为2026年三者均将大幅跑赢大盘。
我持有三星、$TSM 和 $INTC 的敞口。它们就像火、水和草系初始宝可梦，选哪个都不会错。- 三星：在存储和代工领域拥有高上行空间，正在承接台积电的溢出订单。- $TSM：拥有惊人的盈利能力/增长，且被广泛使用，产能已满载。- $INTC：基本上由美国政府兜底下行风险，一旦完成建设，相对于 $TSM 有巨大的上行空间。我相信它们在2026年都会大幅跑赢大盘。
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I have Samsung, $TSM, and $INTC exposure. They're like Fire, Water, and Grass starter Pokemon, can't go wrong with any. - Samsung you have high upside with memory + foundry capturing overflow from TSM. - $TSM, has insane profitability/growth + everyone uses them and they're maxed out. - $INTC is basically US gov capping downside risk + large upside to $TSM once they finish buildout. I'm sure they'll all strong outperform 2026.
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基于美国政策补贴和高确信度，看好Intel长期追赶台积电的7倍回报潜力。
$INTC 基本上就是半导体界的 $RKLB（对应 SpaceX），也是我最大的持仓之一。 众所周知，随着 Nvidia 到 Apple 等巨头的支持，它终将赶上 TSM，成为美国政府事实上的半导体臂膀。 这只是时间问题。 在 $2340 亿美元市值（$TSM 为 1.5 万亿美元）下，仅凭等待就能获得约 7 倍回报。 无论是 2 年还是 10 年，我坚信 Intel 是市场中罕见的机会：你可以投资白宫，以及用无限印钞机补贴现金消耗型晶圆厂开发。 半导体市场并非赢家通吃，总可寻址市场 (TAM) 将持续增长，$TSM 是很好的长线标的，但当 Intel 产能可用时，从 Google 到 Nvidia 的美国超大规模云服务商将承受使用 Intel 的压力。 美国不会让 Intel 失败，这是基于美国政策的高确信度长线投资。
英文原文
$INTC is basically the $RKLB to SpaceX and is one of my biggest positions. Everyone knows it will catch up to TSM as the de-facto semi arm of the US government with Nvidia to Apple backing it. It’s more of a matter of time. At a $234B MC ( $TSM is $1.5T), ~7X return just for waiting. Whether it’s in 2 years or 10 years, I strongly believe Intel is one of the rare opportunities in the market where you can invest in the White House and infinite money printer subsidizing the cash burning foundry development. It’s not winner takes all, the TAM of semis will keep going up, $TSM is a great long, but US hyperscalers from Google to Nvidia would be pressured to use Intel when available. United States won’t let Intel fail, this is a high conviction long on US policy.
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AAOI作为垂直整合玩家，受益于美国制造及云厂商扩张。
@yianisz 同意，$AAOI 是少数几家美国垂直整合玩家之一。显然，主要挑战在于实现规模化，但它极大地受益于“美国制造”的顺风——即 $MSFT、$AMZN 等超大规模云服务商的产能扩张。
英文原文
@yianisz Agreed, $AAOI is one of the rare US vertical integration players. Obviously with this, main challenge is getting it to scale, but it benefits a lot from Made in America tailwinds -> $MSFT, $AMZN hyperscaler ramps.
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AXTI获买入评级及政策利好，验证其在AI基建中的关键地位。
这是一个中性进展。Craig-Hallum 对 $AXTI 给出 $26 目标价“买入”评级，以及特朗普关于磷化铟(InP)供应控制的行政令，只是再次确认了投资逻辑。大多数人一个月前在 $14 时认为 AXT 只是一只被炒作后抛售的 $600m 仙股，因为当时我是少数提及它的人。这类后续新闻进一步验证了 InP 和 AXT 在 AI 基础设施建设中扮演的关键角色。
英文原文
It's a neutral development. Craig-Hallum's $AXTI $26 PT "Buy" analyst report and Trump's executive order for InP supply control is just reaffirming the thesis. Majority of people thought AXT was just a pump/dump $600m penny stock a month ago at $14 since I was one of the only people to mention it. Follow-up news like this just validates how critical of a role both InP and AXT plays in the AI buildout.
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指出对WULF和APLD的关注多为套利而非真实做空。
@Mr_Derivatives 提醒一下其他人，其中很多细节很微妙。对于像 $WULF 或 $APLD 这样的数据中心公司，大量的关注仅仅是为了对冲/可转换票据套利，而非真正的做空。
英文原文
@Mr_Derivatives Just a heads up to the others, a lot of it is nuanced. With data centers like $WULF or $APLD, a lot of interest is just hedging / convertible note arbitrate and not actual shorts
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因AI供应链机会成本高而不看好Adobe等，认为逆趋势难且非其偏好。
个人而言，我并不看好！这并非因为估值（即使打折后）问题，主要是机会成本，因为国防（如无人机）以及从存储到材料的AI供应链都有太多顺风因素。 我认为未来十年很难再看到像今年这样的一年，随机商品材料如磷化铟(Indium Phosphide)竟成为AI/光子学关键材料，且总地址市场(TAM)增长4000%+。 我认为如果分析师能比其他人更早识别出这些机会，这就好比现代淘金热。 话虽如此，像$ADBE、$CRM等公司可能会看到20%的反弹（你可以用期权来加杠杆），但很难逆趋势而行，这也不是我的菜。
英文原文
Personally, not really! It’s not due to valuations (even if discounted) but mainly opportunity cost since there’s so many tailwinds with defense like drones as well as AI supply chains from memory to materials. I don’t think we’ll see another year like this in a decade where random commodity materials like Indium Phopshide end up becoming critical for AI/photonics and TAM goes up 4000%+. I think if analysts are able to identify them before others due, it’s like the modern gold rush. That being said sure companies like $ADBE, $CRM and others might see a 20% rebound (and you can play options for leverage) but harder to fight the trend + not my cup of tea.
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软件板块恐慌性抛售中，$FIG等公司因AI增效仍具价值。
是的，这次抛售确实令人印象深刻。但由于软件板块正遭受无差别的抛售，恐惧中蕴藏着大量机会。即便有AI，我确信人们仍会使用像$FIG（3个月跌幅53.3%）这样的公司，AI只是让它们的工作效率更高。其他一些公司更有投资逻辑，关键在于在广泛抛售中识别出哪些受影响、哪些未受影响。
英文原文
Yeah the selloff is impressive. But there’s a ton of opportunities on fear since software is being sold off indiscriminately. Even with AI, I’m pretty sure people will still use companies like $FIG (-53.3% 3M), it just makes them more productive on there. Others make more sense, just need to identify what’s impacted and what’s not during the broad selloff
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重申NBIS和VLN的投资逻辑，认为市值将回归基本面。
我的投资逻辑应该能自行验证，无需我发帖。我对 $NBIS 在 2026 年的观点与去年完全一致。 $VLN 也是如此，目前市值约 2 亿美元，对应 8000 万美元远期营收，毛利率 63%，基本处于 1.2 亿美元的估值水平。 一旦做市商停止因今日全市场期权大规模到期而进行的操纵小动作，市值应该会回归基本面。
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Thesis should play out by itself without me posting. My thesis with $NBIS for 2026 hasn't changed at all since last year. Same with $VLN, it's basically sitting on $120m off $200m MC right now doing $80m forward revenue, 63% gross margins. MC should catch up to fundamentals once market makers stop with their shenanigans from mass OI expiry today across the board.
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看好自杀式无人机板块，认为市值将追随技术演进。
@Nerd_0ne 从 $AVAV 到 $AIRO 的自杀式无人机真的酷毙了。我认为市值最终会跟随技术路线，就像 $RKLB 那样！
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@Nerd_0ne Kamikaze drones from $AVAV to $AIRO are really cool. I think the marketcaps follow the tech eventually like $RKLB!
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$AIRO因五角大楼“复制者”计划中拦截无人机需求激增而受益，看好其大规模生产潜力。
$AIRO 现已上涨 76.07%。 自最初发帖以来，我认为它几乎没有出现过超过 1 天的下跌（红盘）。 简单论点 TLDR：它是五角大楼“复制者(Replicator)”计划的核心，该计划旨在部署数千架低成本、可消耗无人机。 他们的“子弹无人机”基本上用于拦截无人机或巡航导弹。 并将其摧毁。 鉴于战争正转向无人机，$AIRO 仅仅因为拦截和摧毁其他大规模生产无人机所需的“子弹无人机”的巨大数量而受益。 大家都在大规模生产无人机？ -> 你需要有人大规模生产能摧毁那些无人机的无人机。 大规模生产 = 更高的收入，因此做多 $AIRO
英文原文
$AIRO is now up 76.07%. Don’t think it’s had more than 1 red day since the original posts. Simple thesis TLDR: central to Pentagon "Replicator", which aims to field thousands of low-cost, disposable drones. Their “bullet drone” basically intercepts drones or cruise missiles. And destroys them. Given warfare is moving to drones, $AIRO just benefits from the sheer, sheer amount of bullet drones needed to intercept and destroy the mass production of other drones. Everyone mass producing drones? -> You need someone to mass produce drones that destroy those drones. Mass production = higher revenue, hence long $AIRO
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因现代汽车机器人业务敞口间接，博主选择$SSYS作为替代。
@ChiefLiquidity 我非常非常喜欢波士顿动力(Boston Dynamics)。然而现代汽车(Hyundai)是一家庞大的公司，你无法通过它获得对其机器人业务板块的最直接敞口。因此我选择了 $SSYS。不过我确实通过韩国ETF间接持有了现代汽车。
英文原文
@ChiefLiquidity So I really really like Boston dynamics. However Hyundai is a massive company and you aren’t getting the most direct exposure to their robotics vertical. Hence why I opted with $SSYS. I do have indirect exposure to them through Korean ETFs though