个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2378 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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机构正涌入$AXTI，看好其InP垄断地位及产能爬坡带来的涨价预期。
这很可能全是机构资金在动，许多对冲基金正在意识到 $AXTI 在磷化铟(InP)领域的垄断地位，并试图在北陆(Northland)获得1亿美元注资后入场交易。 这也是一个完全新颖的发展，正在实时上演，99%以上的人甚至还不知道这个瓶颈/公司（我的X粉丝群是个信息茧泡）。 真正的乐趣将在几个月后开始，届时InP价格将飙升得更高，因为产能爬坡才刚刚开始1个半星期。
英文原文
This is likely all institutional movement, and a lot of hedge funds realizing $AXTI's InP monopoly position + trying to enter the trade following Northland $100m funding. This is completely novel development too playing out real time, and 99%+ of people aren't even aware of this bottleneck/company yet (my follower group on X is a bubble) The real fun starts in a few months when InP prices shoot up even higher, since it only stated to ramp 1 1/2 weeks ago.
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看好$AVAV，因获大额国防合同及无人机实战成功，小市值具上行潜力。
虽然算不上10倍股，但我真的很看好 $AVAV。去年12月他们赢得了一份8亿美元以上的合同，随后制造了成功瘫痪委内瑞拉防空系统的自杀式Switchblade无人机。鉴于其成功以及1.5万亿美元以上的国防开支，他们很可能成为巨大的赢家，且鉴于其市值较小，上行空间存在。
英文原文
It's not 10x but I really like $AVAV. They won a $800m+ contract earlier last Dec, and then made the kamikaze switchblade drones that successfully disabled Venezuelan air defenses. Given the success and $1.5T+ in defense spending, they'll likely be a huge winner, and upside is there given its small MC.
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AIRO估值远低于同行，重估至AVAV水平仍有3倍空间，继续持仓。
在我看来，$AIRO 还有很长的路要走，这也是我继续持仓的原因。其交易估值约为3倍远期市销率(Forward P/S)，而其他无人机股票则超过30倍。当然，由于存在来自其他垂直领域的混合收入，情况更为复杂。但即使重新估值至保守的航空航天公司如 $AVAV，其价格也将是当前价格的3倍。
英文原文
$AIRO has a long way to go in my opinion, which is why I’m still holding. Trading at ~3 frwd p/s while other drone stocks are 30+. Of course this is more nuanced since there’s blended revenue from other verticals. But even rerating to conservative aerospace companies like $AVAV would be 3x current prices.
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博主计划持有AIRO和OSS至年底，看好国防支出红利。
两股“战争部”股票的启示：$AIRO 和 $OSS。 如果你将信息发现与1.5万亿美元的国防支出顺风相结合，就能获得丰厚回报。 自几天前发帖以来，两者均上涨50%以上。我个人计划在我的10倍潜力篮子中持有它们直到年底。
英文原文
A tale of two Department of War stocks $AIRO | $OSS. Information discovery pays dividends if you couple that with the $1.5T Defense spending tailwinds. Both up 50%+ since posting a few days ago. I personally plan to hold them until EOY in my 10x potential basket. https://t.co/7N0ExxEq8c
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Bressner出售利好$OSS，市场将重估其高利润率防御业务，整体看涨。
微妙之处在于，Bressner 的出售极其积极。我最初没有买入 $OSS，因为其部门搞乱了综合利润率计算。但在发现其纯防御垂直领域的利润率后，我意识到它极其专业化。市场也会意识到这一点，并将其估值从大宗商品地位重估为高科技国防承包商溢价。算法可能会因营收变化而误解，但做多该股的投资者会认为这对他们持仓极为有利，因为这是一个高利润率、需求大于供给的垂直领域正在扩张。此外，还有 1.5 万亿美元的国防支出流向这家小型国防承包商以及像 $AIRO 这样的无人机公司，因此我对该股整体看涨（尤其是在向机器人领域过渡时）。
英文原文
Nuanced, the Bressner sale is extremely extremely positive. I didn’t enter $OSS originally because that division messed up blended margin calculations. But after discovering their pure play defense vertical and margins, I realized it was extraordinarily specialized. Market will realize that too and re-rate it from commodity status to a high tech dod contractor premium. Algorithmically they might misunderstand from revenue changes but the people who long the stock will see this as incredibly positive on their position scaling a high margin, demand > capacity vertical. Then there’s the $1.5T in defense spend following down to this small defense contractor and drone companies like $AIRO, so just bullish all around on the stock (esp as we transition to robotics)
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AXTI因光子学垄断地位及出口管制影响，估值远低于同行，增长空间巨大。
恕我直言，$AXTI 才刚刚起步。这仅仅是日本供应链遭受出口管制重击后，产能爬坡的开始。 这是西方部署光子学 AI 的单点故障环节，且处于垄断地位，相关市场价值为 13 亿美元。 你看那些随机的量子计算和能源公司估值都超过 100 亿美元了。我认为它还有很大的增长空间。
英文原文
$AXTI is just getting started imo. This is only beginning the ramp up after the export control nuke on Japan's supply chains. This is single point of failure and a monopoly for Western's AI deployment using photonics valued at $1.3B. You have random quantum and energy companies are valued at $10B+. I think there's room to grow.
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小盘股如OSS和AVA因规模限制无法进行股票回购。
@sjahmed08 对于较小的参与者来说，这并不重要。像 $OSS 或 $AVA 这样的公司，鉴于其规模，并没有能力进行股票回购。
英文原文
@sjahmed08 It's not material for smaller players. Players like $OSS or $AVA aren't in positions to do share buybacks given their size.
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尽管微软下调预期，仍看好AAOI长期必然性，建议等待。
@Motorphy @B38B37 $AAOI 与 $MSFT Maia 项目深度绑定，而微软刚刚大幅下调了预期（这就是为什么 $MRVL 今天跌了 4%）。 尽管如此，我依然非常看好它，因为这更多是必然趋势，只是存在执行层面的不确定性，只需等待一两年即可。
英文原文
@Motorphy @B38B37 $AAOI is heavily tethered to $MSFT Maia and they just heavily lowered estimates (hence why $MRVL went down 4% today). I still really like it regardless since it’s more of an inevitability minus execution uncertainty, just need to wait it out for a year or two.
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作者对$OSS持观望态度，若项目落地，预计6个月内市值可达10亿美元。
@bigbull_0410 是的，$OSS 对我来说属于“观望”类别，我想看看能否从中获得 1000%+ 的回报。 说实话，如果该奖项（award）顺利落地，我不惊讶于看到它在 6 个月内达到 10 亿美元市值（Market Cap）。
英文原文
@bigbull_0410 Yeah $OSS is one of those wait and see for me to see if I get a 1000%+ out of this. Honestly wouldn’t be surprised if I see this at $1B MC in 6 months if the award goes through.
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作者认为OSS相比KRKNF具有更高上涨空间，故选择前者。
@drakeondigital 我关注 $KRKNF 已有一段时间，确实挺看好它。但我个人觉得 $OSS 的上涨空间要大得多，这也是我选择 OSS 的原因。
英文原文
@drakeondigital I’ve known about $KRKNF for awhile and I do like it. But I personally think $OSS has a lot higher upside, which is why I chose OSS.
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看好$OSS，因其获美军使用、高毛利且需求旺盛。
@LawnChairCap $OSS 令人极度兴奋，当我看到这家市值仅 1.55 亿美元的公司正在做的事情时，简直不敢相信自己的眼睛。它已被美国军方在委内瑞拉使用，毛利率达 45%，手握 4000 多万美元现金，需求超过产能，处于极度火热的赛道，天哪。
英文原文
@LawnChairCap $OSS is incredibly exciting and I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw what they were doing at a $155m MC. Like already being used in Venezuela by US military, 45% gross margins with a $40m+ cash pile, demand exceeding capacity, extremely hot sector, jeez
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AXTI和AIRO短期暴涨，深入研究后对OSS持看多态度。
@B38B37 观察 $AXTI 和 $AIRO 的走势真是令人捧腹，两者在一周左右的时间里都上涨了50%以上。 不过，在深入研究该公司，特别是委内瑞拉入侵事件及其受益者后，我对 $OSS 相当看好。
英文原文
@B38B37 $AXTI and $AIRO have been hilarious to watch both are up 50%+ in a week or so. I’m pretty bullish on $OSS though after looking into company, esp. Venezuelan invasion and beneficiaries.
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建仓$OSS，认为其作为边缘AI国防承包商获实战验证，高毛利且被低估。
我建仓了 $OSS。 我通常不说这种话，但这只股票令人兴奋。 市场完全错过了这家市值1.55亿美元的无人机群、幽灵舰队、无人水面艇(USV)、边缘AI部署的美国国防部承包商。 他们尤其错过了 OSS 在委内瑞拉入侵行动中的参与，这给 $AVAV 等股票带来了溢价。 在我看来，这看起来像是一个“邪恶”的长线机会： 1. 4100万美元现金（预计）/ 1.55亿美元市值（下行风险低）。 2. 纯动能防御(Pure play Kinetic Defense)标的。 3. 供需比为 1:2.4（因需求旺盛而积压）。 4. 45%的毛利率。 主要兴趣点在于委内瑞拉作为其在美国军队中实际使用的证明： $OSS P-8 海神在委内瑞拉： - 飞行追踪数据证实，第40巡逻中队(VP-40)的 P-8A 海神飞机在突袭期间在委内瑞拉海岸附近，以监控委内瑞拉海军动向。 OSS 关联：2025年7月1日，OSS 宣布了一项500万美元的紧急订单，专门用于为 P-8A 海神交付“61台加固数据单元”。 SOCOM “抓捕小组”： - 抓捕领导层的突袭由美国特种作战司令部(USSOCOM)执行，具体使用了海上插入团队（可能是海豹突击队/SWCC）和第160特种作战航空团（直升机）。 OSS 关联：2025年5月29日，OSS 直接与 USSOCOM 签署了合作研发协议(CRADA)，为海洋环境制造边缘计算机。OSS 为潜入委内瑞拉海岸的隐形船只构建了战斗追踪服务器。 “幽灵舰队”封锁： - “南方长矛行动”目前正在使用无人水面艇（无人机船）封锁油轮。 OSS 关联：海军的“第59特遣队”（以及较新的第4舰队等效部队）在这些无人机上使用 $OSS Rigel 边缘超级计算机，因为它是少数能装入40英尺机器人船的小型AI服务器之一。 这字面意义上是委内瑞拉的实战验证。对于一家市值1.55亿美元的小公司而言。 在之前，每个人都把这家公司当作像 $SMCI 那样的大宗商品（包括我自己），但我完全错过了他们的国防垂直领域（在出售 Bressner 后现在是纯标的）拥有45.6%的毛利率。 直到我再次深入研究后，才意识到他们的另一个部门因为混合毛利率（仅转售国防装备）完全搞乱了毛利计算。 所以现在我们有一个： ~45%毛利率，估值1.55亿美元，拥有4100万美元现金，需求超出供应2.4倍的AI军事承包商。 去年晚些时候我做了一个分析，当时看起来 $OSS 是 Andruil 或 $PLTR 的供应商，并开始爬坡。 再次审视出售后的情况，45%的毛利率使他们进入极其卓越的领域（例如洛克希德·马丁，12-14%）或大宗商品卖家（例如 $SMCI，$DELL 8-14%）。 这是一个经过战争验证的专用防御AI纯标的，用于无人机群、幽灵舰队、USV等，具有极高的毛利率，市值1.55亿美元。 我发现这是一个令人兴奋的重新发现，所以我建仓了。
英文原文
I've initiated a position in $OSS. I usually never say this but, this one is exciting. Markets completely missed this 155M MC Drone Swarm, Ghost Fleet, USVs, Edge AI deploying US DoD contractor. And they especially missed OSS’s involvement in the Venezuela's invasion, that gave premiums to $AVAV and others. This looks like an unholy long to me: 1. $41M cash (pro forma ets.) / $155M MC (low downside risk). 2. Pure play Kinetic Defense 3. 1 : 2.4x supply/demand. (backlogged from high demand) 4. 45% gross margins. The main interest was Venezuela as proof they're actively being used in the US military: $OSS P-8 Poseidon in Venezuela: - Flight tracking data confirmed that P-8A Poseidon aircraft from Patrol Squadron 40 (VP-40) were off the coast of Venezuela during the raid to monitor Venezuelan naval movements. OSS Link: On July 1 2025, OSS announced a $5M urgent order specifically to deliver "61 Rugged Data Units" for the P-8A Poseidon. SOCOM "Capture Team": - The raid to capture leadership was executed by US Special Operations Command (USSOCOM), specifically using maritime insertion teams (likely SEALs/SWCC) and the 160th SOAR (helicopters). OSS Link: On May 29, 2025, OSS signed a (CRADA) directly with USSOCOM to build edge computers for Maritime Environments. OSS built the battle-tracking servers for the stealth boats used to slip into the Venezuelan coast. "Ghost Fleet" Blockade: - "Operation Southern Spear" is currently using unmanned surface vessels (drone boats) to block oil tankers. OSS Link: The Navy's "Task Force 59" (and the newer 4th Fleet equivalent) uses the $OSS Rigel Edge Supercomputer for these drones because it is one of the few AI servers small enough to fit on a 40-foot robot boat. This is literally combat validation in Venezuela. Of a small $155M stock. Before everyone treated this company as a commodity like $SMCI (myself included), but I completely missed that their defense vertical (which is pure-play now after the Bressner sale) has 45.6% gross margins. Only after I looked into it again after did I realize their other division was completely messing up margin calculations because of blended margins (from just re-selling defense gear). So now we have a: ~45% margins, AI military contractor valued at $155M business with $41m cash, with demand outstripping supply 2.4 to 1. I did an analysis later last year, which looked like $OSS was a supplier for Andruil or $PLTR, and was beginning their ramp up. Looking at it again post-sale, the 45% margin puts them into extremely stellar territory (compared to eg. Lockheed Martin, 12-14%) or commodity sellers (eg. $SMCI, $DELL 8-14%) This is a specialized war-validated defense AI pure-play for drone swarms, ghost fleets, USVs, and others, with extremely high margins, at $155M MC. I've found this to be an exciting re-discovery, so I've taken a position.
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CRDO为基于误传的波段交易，下跌或成做多良机
@LongInnovation $CRDO 对我来说不是一个大仓位。这更多是基于关于客户即将转向 $MRVL 的错误信息以及一些主题演讲的混乱情况而进行的波段交易。但这次下跌可能会为其他想做多的人提供一个有吸引力的入场点。
英文原文
@LongInnovation $CRDO is not a big position for me. More of a swing trade based off misinformation posted about customer about to $MRVL and some keynote shenanigans. But the drop might present an attractive entry point for others who want to go long.
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博主计划在当前价位买入CRDO，并通过光子学板块对冲风险。
如果我基于我的巫术技术分析图表进行交易，我会个人在 $CRDO 130美元水平（即当前价位）买入。上月财报后从210美元跌至130美元，尤其是受假新闻影响，这使得该价位成为一个有吸引力的入场点。Credo 可能会进一步下跌，但我目前通过光子学(Photonics)板块进行了很好的对冲。
英文原文
If I trade based off my voodoo TA charting, I'd be personally buying $CRDO at $130 level (which is around now). Dropping from $210 -> $130 post-earnings last month, especially from fake news, makes this an attractive entry. Credo could always drop further, but I'm hedged pretty well with photonics right now.
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澄清CES误导，认为$CRDO错杀，因内部线缆变更及光子学布局而加仓。
我在$CRDO下跌25.7%时加仓，利用了CES上的信息误导。 1. 最初的大幅下跌是因为投资者在$AMZN数据中心发现了橙色和蓝色线缆（暗示$CRDO失去客户）。 实际情况是亚马逊仅为内部物流要求更改颜色——由Mizuho的Vijay Rakesh证实。 2. CES 2026主题演讲——第二次下跌是因为黄仁勋提到Rubin NVL72机架的“无缆”设计。 “无缆”说法特指连接GPU与NVLink交换机的内部铜背板（盲插中板）。 $CRDO的主要产品是有源电缆(AEC)，用于机架外部连接服务器与网络交换机。Nvidia的“无缆”技术仅替换Credo未生产的内部部件。 黄仁勋确实提到了Spectrum-X以太网光子学，但$CRDO也在光子学领域运营，拥有“BlueBird”（光数字信号处理器）和“ZeroFlap”光模块。还有机架顶部连接，这是Credo的主营业务（也是未来2-3年能效最高的解决方案）。 正如我多次在$AXTI中指出的，人们对转向光子学存在更大担忧，但鉴于供应短缺，行业正走向混合模式（铜+光子学）。 总之，投资者只是不了解细微差别，并非故意散布虚假信息。 因此我个人加仓了$CRDO，因为其大部分市值因无关紧要且错误的消息被抹去。
英文原文
I've added $CRDO on the 25.7% drop, taking advantage of CES misinformation. 1. Large drop initially was because investors spotted orange and blue cables in $AMZN DCs (implying $CRDO customer loss). All that happened was Amazon requested a color change for internal logistics. - confirmed by Vijay Rakesh from Mizuho. 2. CES 2026 keynote - Second drop was Jensen Huang said "Cableless" design of Rubin NVL72 rack. The "cableless" claim refers specifically to the internal copper backplane (blind-mate midplane) that connects the GPUs to the NVLink switches within a single rack. $CRDO's main product is AEC, for outside of the racks that connect the entire server rack to the network switch. Nvidia's "Cableless" Tech only replaces internal parts Credo didn't make. Jensen did mention Spectrum-X Ethernet Photonics, but $CRDO is operating in the photonics space too with "BlueBird" (Optical DSPs) and "ZeroFlap" optics. And then there's Top of the Rack Connectivity, which is Credo's main business (which is the most power efficient solution for the next 2-3y). There are larger concerns over the shift to photonics (as I've pointed out with $AXTI multiple times), but industry is moving toward a hybrid model (copper + photonics) given the supply shortage. Again as an overview, investors just did not know the nuances, not intentional disinformation. So I ended up personally adding $CRDO since a large percent of its market cap got wiped from immaterial + incorrect news.
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AXTI因出口管制获垄断优势，虽今日大涨但真正波动或滞后，目前属早期入场。
考虑到今日的出口管制使 $AXTI 处于垄断地位，我认为今天超过+20%的涨幅本应更大！ 然而，真正的波动可能会像 $SNDK 或内存市场案例那样，在1-2个月后瓶颈出现时才会发生。 市值依然非常小，媒体也毫无报道。在座的各位仅仅是比市场更早入场罢了。
英文原文
本日の輸出規制により $AXTI が独占状態となったことを考えれば、今日の+20%を超える上昇はもっと大きくあるべきだったと考えていました！ しかし、本格的な変動は $SNDKやメモリ市場で起きた事例のように、1〜2ヶ月後にボトルネックが生じた際に起こるでしょう。 時価総額は依然として非常に小さく、メディアでの報道も皆無です。ここにいる皆さんは、単に市場より一足早く参入しているに過ぎません
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AXTI成InP衬底垄断瓶颈，估值偏低，建议关注其作为AI光学关键标的的投资价值。
$AXTI 在中国通过出口管制重创日本磷化铟(InP)衬底供应链后，实际上已成为一个单点故障垄断者。未来的AI基础设施建设依赖于光学技术。AXT目前的估值为11亿美元，考虑到其对$NVDA、$GOOGL、$MSFT、$META等公司的重要性，我觉得这个估值小得可笑。当然，如果中国限制AXT的出口，下游超大规模云服务商将面临更严重的问题。但是否值得买入这个瓶颈环节，由你决定。
英文原文
$AXTI is effectively a single point of failure monopoly after China crippled Japan’s InP substrates supply chains with export controls. The future AI buildout relies on optical. AXT is valued at $1.1B currently, which I find hilariously small given the importance to $NVDA, $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META and so on. Of course if China restricts exports from AXT there are bigger things to worry about since this flows downstream to hyperscalers. But I’ll let you decide if it’s worth buying into the bottleneck.
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批评$IREN董事阿尔弗雷德违规，建议其离任以维护公司形象。
是的，你做出了正确的决定。迈克·阿尔弗雷德(Mike Alfred)可能会在下一届政府换届时因所有的拉抬出货(pumping, dumping)和无尽的证券违规行为而入狱。我不明白为什么@danroberts0101还让他留在董事会，这对$IREN的形象非常糟糕。站在历史正确的一边，不利用追随者，这样更好。
英文原文
Yeah you made the right decision, Mike Alfred would probably go to jail next administration change for all the pumping, dumping and endless securities violations he’s breaking. Not sure why @danroberts0101 keeps him on the board since it’s a terrible image for $IREN. It’s better to stay on the right side of history and not take advantage of followers.
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澄清$AIRO因递延收入被误读导致抛售，下季将确认。
@Mr__Cause 那是递延收入(deferred revenue)，而非流失收入。$AIRO 将在下季度确认这笔收入，但由于市场误解，所谓的“大幅不及预期”引发了抛售。
英文原文
@Mr__Cause That was deferred revenue, not lost revenue. $AIRO will recognize it next quarter but that “huge miss” caused the selloff since it was misunderstood.
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博主预告将发布研究并澄清未持有CIEN。
@ManglaniAkshay @LogicalThesis 我稍后/明天会发布一些我的研究。你们就会明白我的意思了。我没有持有 $CIEN。
英文原文
@ManglaniAkshay @LogicalThesis I'll publish some of my research later today/tomorrow. You'll see what i mean Don't have $CIEN.
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作者卖出LITE转投COHR，认为其优于LITE但确信度不及NBIS。
@ManglaniAkshay @LogicalThesis 所以我目前其实更看好 $COHR 而非 $LITE，并在约 385 美元处卖出了我的 LITE 仓位。 前几天我做了一些内部研究，发现了一些潜在问题，但尚未发布。 话虽如此，它仍是一个不错的多头标的，但确信度不如 $NBIS。
英文原文
@ManglaniAkshay @LogicalThesis So I actually like $COHR more than $LITE right now and sold my LITE positions at ~$385. I did some internal research the other day and found some potential issues but didn't publish it yet. That being said it's still a good long but not as high conviction as $NBIS.
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建仓$AIRO，看好其低估值及国防无人机订单带来的反弹机会。
我在 $AIRO 上建立了一个头寸，自3天前发布该帖以来已上涨+23%。 尽管 $ONDS 备受炒作，市场似乎仍不了解这只航空航天与国防股票。 这是一家无人机股票，市值约3亿美元，2026年预估收入超1.2亿美元（约2.5倍远期市销率）。 其他同类公司交易倍数为30-40+倍，而像 $AVAV 这样的大公司交易倍数约为9.3倍市销率。 这源于其2025-2026年1.9亿美元的订单指引，减去预估的2025财年约8690万美元及增长部分。 该板块正迎来巨大顺风，来自委内瑞拉/乌克兰的军事冲突以及1万亿美元的国防部国防支出。 $AIRO 已拥有来自北约+乌克兰武装部队的订单积压，包括如 RQ-35 Heidrun 等无人机，专为GPS拒止环境设计（乌克兰-俄罗斯冲突）。 由于其高管团队的历史，存在很大的执行不确定性，但我喜欢以下几点： - 无人机+国防板块变得极其火热 - 该股市销率处于极低水平 - 他们构建的东西很酷，就像我15美元买入 $RKLB 时一样 + 在2025年第三季度，AIRO 因发货延迟严重未达收入预期（报告630万美元 vs 较高预期）。然而，这只是递延收入，股价从30美元跌至10美元，我认为这是一个独特的机会。 这只是一个“淋浴思考”帖，绝非深入尽职调查。关键在于执行，且该股似乎没有任何溢价。 所以，我建仓 $AIRO 只是为了看看它会走向何方。
英文原文
I’ve taken a position in $AIRO and it’s up +23% since this post 3 days ago. Markets still don’t know about this Aerospace & Defense stock, despite $ONDS hype. It’s a drone stock ~$300m MC, with $120m+ est. for 2026 (~2.5 fwd p/s) Others trade at 30-40+ multiples and bigger companies trade at ~9.3 p/s like $AVAV. This stems from their $190M guidance for 2025-2026 bookings subtracted by est. FY 2025 ~$86.9M + growth. There’s a huge tailwind for the sector coming from military conflicts in Venezuela/Ukraine and $1T DoD spending into defense. $AIRO already has order backlog from NATO + Ukraine armed forces for drones like RQ-35 Heidrun, designed for GPS-denied environments (Ukraine - Russia conflicts). There’s a lot of execution uncertainty due to their executive team history, but i like how: - Drone + Defense segment becoming extremely hot -this one trading at extremely low levels of P/S -what they’re building is cool like when I bought $RKLB at $15 + In Q3 2025, AIRO missed revenue expectations badly ($6.3M reported vs. higher expectations) due to shipment delays. However, this is just deferred revenue, the stock dropped from $30 -> $10, I thought this could be a unique opportunity. This is just a shower-thought post, by no means in-depth DD. Name of the game is execution, and this doesn’t seem to have any premiums. So, I’ve taken a position in $AIRO just to see where it goes.
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计划明日将持仓完全迁移至南亚科技。
@rwang07 我理解了你的指示，明天将完全迁移至南亚科技($NANY)。
英文原文
@rwang07 I understood your instructions, full porting Nanya tomorrow
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因风险考量，倾向持有获政府补贴的能源股，并警惕 Amber Energy 中标影响。
@FrontRangeHQ 我确实做过，但风险极高，因此鉴于美国政府为开发提供的补贴，$VLO、$AVAV 和 $CVX 目前看起来最安全。 我会对中标的 Amber Energy 59 亿美元报价保持警惕，因此我会在今天之后调整这些权重。
英文原文
@FrontRangeHQ I did but it’s extremely risky so $VLO, $AVAV, and $CVX look the safest right now given US gov subsidies for development. I’d be wary of the $5.9b amber energy bid that won so I’d change these weightings after today.
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美政府或补贴雪佛龙在委资本支出，利好其现金流。
这取决于你。不过 $CVX 是委内瑞拉仅剩的石油公司，基本掌控了该国的石油产能。市场此前定价认为雪佛龙需投入数十亿资本支出来实现委内瑞拉17万亿美元储量的价值。但现在美国政府很可能补贴所有这些支出，为公司去风险，使其无需投入即可获取利润并提升自由现金流（这对美国也是净利好，因为石油生产成本更低）。
英文原文
That’s up to you. $CVX however is the only one left in Venezuela and basically controls the oil production capacity of the country. Markets were pricing in Chevron spending billions of capex to realize the value of Venezuela's $17T reserves. But now the US government is likely to subsidize all of that, de-risking the company and just letting it reap in the profits + boost FCF without spend (which is net positive for the US too with cheaper oil production).
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特朗普拟补贴委内瑞拉石油项目，利好雪佛龙及炼油、服务公司。
突发消息： 1. 特朗普很可能补贴委内瑞拉的石油公司。 2. 特朗普目前正在会见美国石油公司领导人，讨论这些补贴并立即提升石油产量。 以下是可能获得资金和受益的公司： $CVX - 雪佛龙：美国补贴基本板上钉钉，因为它是目前唯一能立即部署这些补贴的美国主要公司。 炼油商 $VLO, $PSX 和 $MPC - 这些炼油厂专为处理委内瑞拉重质原油而建。补贴意味着石油流动更快，尽管由于参与者众多，具体分配更具投机性。 服务公司 $HAL, $BKR - 这些公司不拥有石油，但负责修复管道。随着美国修复极其老旧的管道，许多此类公司可能会收到补贴。 对于美国公司而言，无需承担自身资本风险即可利用委内瑞拉价值17万亿美元的石油储备“金矿”，这是极具回报的。 市场最初将高资本支出(Capex)计入其中几家公司的估值，现在随着对这些补贴的预期，我们可能会看到市场重新评级。 美国为石油公司支出提供资金改变了整体格局，对雪佛龙等石油公司构成利好。
英文原文
Just in: 1. Trump likely to Subsidize Oil Firms in Venezuela. 2. Trump is now currently meeting US Oil company leaders to discuss these subsidies and boosting Oil Production immediately Here’s what companies likely receives the funding and benefits: $CVX - Chevron US subsidies are basically guaranteed as they are the only U.S. major currently left that can use to immediately deploy these subsidies. Refiners $VLO, $PSX and $MPC - These refiners are built to process Venezuelan heavy crude. Subsidies mean the oil flows faster, albeit the exact allocations are more speculative due to multiple players. Service Companies $HAL, $BKR - These companies don't own the oil but they do fix the pipes. Many of these companies will likely receive subsidizes, as the US fixes extremely old pipelines. This is incredibly rewarding for US companies to capitalize on the $17T gold mine of Venezuelan oil reserves, without risking their own capital. Markets were initially pricing in high capex spend with a few of these, and now we might see a market re-rating in anticipation of these subsidies. US funding oil company spend changes the equation across the board and is bullish for oil firms like Chevron.
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CVX成委内瑞拉石油运营商，地缘溢价未充分定价。
我完全同意关于 $VLO 利润立即扩张的观点。然而，这涉及地缘政治角度：$CVX 基本上已成为美国政府在石油领域的非官方国家臂膀，类似于英特尔在半导体领域的地位。它是委内瑞拉唯一仍在运营的公司，鉴于特朗普希望开采石油并在中期选举前压低油价，其重要性至关重要。如果将其视为基本继承了一个国家的石油部门，5% 的涨幅并未完全反映这一价值。这不仅仅是雪佛龙发现了新垂直领域，更像是雪佛龙成为了委内瑞拉的石油运营商，仅凭这一角度就值得给予市盈率倍数溢价，因为其委内瑞拉资产已实现去风险化。
英文原文
So I definitely agree about $VLO with immediate profit expansion. However, this is is taking the geopolitical angle that $CVX has basically become unspoken US Gov national arm for Oil, similar to Intel for semis. It’s the only one standing in Venezuela, and is of critical importance given Trump wants to harvest the oil, and lower oil prices before midterm elections. If you look at it in the way it basically inherited a country’s oil sector a 5% bump is not quite pricing that in. It’s not quite Chevron found a new vertical, it’s more like Chevron became the oil operator of Venezuela and that angle alone deserves p/e multiple added given its Venezuelan assets are derisked
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推荐$AIRO，低市销率且订单积压充足，但非委内瑞拉事件直接受益者。
@init_malachi 如果你觉得错过了机会，还有像 $AIRO 这样的公司。它的市值为3亿美元，在无人机领域的2025/2026年订单积压约为2亿美元，且拥有6000多万美元的现金储备。与同行相比，其市销率(P/S)极低，但并未直接参与委内瑞拉的接管行动。
英文原文
@init_malachi There’s companies like $AIRO too if you feel you missed out, it’s $300m mc, with ~$200m or so order backlog for 2025/2026 in drones and $60m+ cashpile. P/S is extremely low compared to others, but not really directly involved in the Venezuela takeover
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分析GDRZF低市值及委内瑞拉未付索赔，决定继续持有。
@thgstar2 呃，它的市值只有3.6亿美元。而且他们实际上已经获得了一项11亿美元的索赔裁决，但委内瑞拉并未支付。 此外，还有另一项关于Siembra Minera（世界上最大的金/铜矿床之一）45%控制权的权益。 我想我会继续持有 $GDRZF，以防万一。
英文原文
@thgstar2 uhh, it's a $360M marketcap. And they literally have an awarded $1.1B claim already but Venezuela didn't pay. Then there's another one for 45% control over the Siembra Minera, one of the largest gold/copper deposits in the world. I think I'm holding $GDRZF, just in case.