个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2504 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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警告散户远离$UAVS，揭露其融资结构旨在向套利者转移财富。
警告散户投资者： 在22日的投票结果出来之前，远离 $UAVS。 我在研究无人机股票推荐时，发现了SEC文件，其中显示不透明的董事会投票决定将财富从散户转移给套利者。 这是一家无人机公司，因为被美国陆军工程兵团(USACE)、北约(KFOR)和其他武装部队使用，且最近有大量新闻报道，从而获得了散户的关注。 我原本对这个市值7500万美元的公司作为多头标的感到非常兴奋，因为他们将农业应用场景转型为无人机国防承包商。 然而，2025年11月7日的文件是一次巨大的稀释核弹。 基本上，他们在去年的G轮融资中，将整个公司卖给了套利投资者，赋予这些人以1.23美元（比当前市价低75%）的价格购买1亿美元股份的权利。 早在2021年，同一批G轮投资者散布了关于与 $AMZN 合作的虚假信息，诱使散户买入 -> 然后向这些投资者抛售股份（Bonitas Research指出该新闻是假的）。现在整个公司由Alpha Capital Anstalt等相同的套利投资者控制。 这些公司也控制着股价（可以轻松将市值推高至3亿，然后在散户看到价格上涨并买入时进行稀释）。 凭借这一条款，他们现在有效地控制了100%以上的整个公司，他们可以发行新股 -> 获利50%以上 -> 重复。我在研究无人机股票时差点就掉进这个陷阱。 简而言之：买入这只股票实际上是在向套利投资者捐款。董事会投票支持这种结构令人警觉。 股票长期来看是正和博弈，如果论点方向正确，每个人都能受益。在这种情况下，由于当前的融资结构，每个散户投资者都会输。
英文原文
Warning to retail investors: Stay away from $UAVS until the result of the vote on the 22nd. I was researching drone stock recs, and found SEC filings where the shady board voted for a wealth transfer from retail to arbitrage. It's a drone company that's been getting retail attention because it's used by: US Army USACE, NATO (KFOR), and other armed forces with a lot of news published recently. I was super excited about this potential long for a $75M company, since they pivoted their agricultural use case to drone defense contractor. However, the November 7, 2025 Filing was a massive dilution nuke. Basically they sold their entire company to arbitrage investors last year in their Series G round, giving these guys the right to buy $100M shares at $1.23 or 75% under market price current is. Back in 2021, the same Series G investors put out false information about an $AMZN partnership to get retail to buy -> dump shares on them (Bonitas Research pointed out this news was fake). The entire company is now controlled by the same arbitrage investors like Alpha Capital Anstalt. These companies control the price too (can easily make this $300M then dilute when retail sees price go up and buys in) With this clause, they have effective control of 100%+ of the entire company now where they can issue new shares -> profit 50%+ -> repeat. I almost fell for it while looking into drone stocks. TLDR: Buying this stock is effectively donating money to the arbitrage investors. The fact the board voted for this structure is alarming. Stocks positive sum game long term where everyone benefits if the thesis is directionally right. In this case, with the current financing structure, every retail investor loses.
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批评$UAVS董事会授权套利者控盘以欺诈散户。
我措辞稍显强硬，但请等到22日再看$1亿授权结果。但$UAVS董事会投票通过此事，通过赋予套利投资者对整个公司的控制权并无限期出售其股票以免费获取当前价值25%（即1.23美元）来欺诈散户投资者，这简直太有毒了。
英文原文
I worded this a bit strongly, but wait until 22nd for $100m authorization outcome. But the fact the $UAVS board voted for this sht to scam retail investors by giving arbitrage investors control of the entire company and endlessly sell their sales for a free 25% of current value or $1.23 is just so toxic.
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警告远离某股，指其通过认股权证向套利者让渡控制权，严重损害散户利益。
天哪，快远离！我之前仅从科技/金融角度（这确实非常强劲）来看待它，而非稀释效应。这家公司简直是在诈骗散户投资者。他们基本上将公司的控制权（超过8800万美元的认股权证）交给了套利投资者，后者可以随时以低于市场价25%的价格买入。散户投资者将被套利，直到他们向这家公司注入8800万美元。
英文原文
HOLY CRAP STAY AWAY, I was only looking at it from tech/financials angle (Which is extremely strong) rather than dilution. This company is just scamming retail investors. They basically gave control of their entire company (over $88M USD+ in warrants) to arbitrage investors who can buy any time 25% below market size. Retail investors will just get arbitraged until they pile $88M into this company.
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博主认为$UAVS是隐藏宝石并计划建仓。
@KAnalyser1 哇，$UAVS 是一颗隐藏的宝石。我会建仓，谢谢。
英文原文
@KAnalyser1 Woah $UAVS is a hidden gem. I’ll take positions thanks
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博主强烈看好LPTH，建议超配做多。
@WaltzDisneyz $LPTH 的表现令人难以置信，我很少这么说。我会对此进行超重的多头配置。
英文原文
@WaltzDisneyz $LPTH is incredible, I don’t say this often. I would go super long on this.
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认为$VLN受做市商算法操控，短期价格无关紧要，市场终将修正。
我对 $VLN 的看法是，这很可能是做市商(MM)算法在 $2.5 进行的打击防御(strike defense)，因为期权链上只有 $2.5 和 $5 的合约。（你可以看到上周五该价格被锁定数小时）。 短期价格并不重要，因为市场最终会自我修正，尤其是在做市商完成对冲、伽马(Gamma)解除或如果数据来源在下一次财报中修正从而停止做空之后。
英文原文
My thoughts on $VLN is that it’s probably MM algo strike defense at $2.5 since option chain is only $2.5 and $5. (You can see it pinned to that price last Friday for hours). Short term price doesn’t matter because markets correct itself over time, esp after MMs finish hedging, gamma unwinds, or we stop seeing shorting if data source corrects next earnings.
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暂无苹果投资英特尔公开消息，但特朗普或知情。
@TheEEInvestor 目前没有任何关于 $APPL 投资 $INTC 的公开披露或新闻。但我认为特朗普作为现任总统可能比其他人知道得更多，而且他在直播采访中倾向于说出一些不该说的话。
英文原文
@TheEEInvestor There's no public disclosures or news at all regarding $APPL investments in $INTC yet. But I'd say Trump probably knows a bit more than others as the sitting President and is prone to say more things than he should in his live interviews.
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特朗普泄露苹果投资英特尔，致INTC盘后暴涨
如果你想知道为什么 $INTC 盘后暴涨： 特朗普在一次采访中意外泄露了 $APPL 已投资的消息。https://t.co/1B8JMOc5BV
英文原文
If you’re wondering why $INTC is flying after hours: Trump accidentally leaked in an interview that $APPL invested. https://t.co/1B8JMOc5BV
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SOUN 估值已充分反映，虽基本面稳健但上行空间有限。
我对 $SOUN 的看法是，在 45 亿美元市值下，其极端溢价已 largely priced in（大幅反映在股价中）。 2.69 亿美元现金，无债务。但季度亏损 1450 万美元（1.05 亿美元只是 optics（表面现象/会计处理）），基于 1.7 亿美元远期营收（fw revenue）实现 68% 的同比增长表现尚可。 这是一个稳健的做多标的，但在 23 倍远期市盈率下上行空间有限。谁知道呢，我可能错了。
英文原文
My opinion on $SOUN is that it’s already largely priced in with extreme premiums at $4.5b. $269m cash, debt free. But $14.5M loss q/q ($105m is just optics), growing revenue 68% y/y off $170m fw revenue is decent. It’s a solid long but upside is more limited with 23x fwd sales. Who knows I could be wrong
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POET/ALMU因周期极早需等待，建议6个月后建仓POET。
我对 $POET 和 $ALMU 的看法是，输入光互连(InP)的替代方案时间框架在2-3年，即2028-2029年。它们没有超大规模数据中心供应商(hyperscaler)的资质，也不在现代专用集成电路(ASIC)架构中，所以 $POET 提前了6个月，$ALMU 提前了1年。像 $RKLB 这样的散户宠儿通常也提前一年，但如果你等得够久，方向是对的。我可能会在6个月后买入 $POET，$ALMU 则更晚一些，但如果 $AXTI 的情况变得严重，它们可能会加速。所以两者都是很好的多头标的，只是由于处于周期极早期，这是一场等待游戏。
英文原文
My opinion around $POET and $ALMU is that inp workaround is 2-3 year timeframe in 2028-2029. They dont have hyperscaler qualifications and aren’t in modern ASIC architectures, so Poet is 6 months early, $ALMU is 1 year early. Retail favorites like $RKLB are often a year ahead of time but they’re directionally right if you wait long enough. I’d probably enter $POET in 6 months and $ALMU further out, but if $AXTI situation becomes severe maybe they get fastracked. So both great longs, it’s just a waiting game since it’s extremely extremely early into the cycle
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分析UMAC基本面优势，对比AIRO，认为两者均有上行空间。
很棒的选择。$UMAC 是一个很好的长线标的。我之前研究时选择了 $AIRO，但很难得有一家市值 5.2 亿美元、拥有 1.33 亿美元现金且无债务、毛利率 40%、同比增长 55%+ 的制造商。它是通过 $RCAT 向 $AVAV 供货的供应商。类似于 $POET 和 $MRVL 的情况。因此上行空间很大，我个人仍然更喜欢 $AIRO，但各有所好！
英文原文
Great choice. $UMAC is a great long. I ended up going with $AIRO when I looked into it earlier but it’s rare you have a $520m mc manufacturer that has - $133m cash, no debt - 40% gross margins - growing 55%+ y/y As a supplier to $AVAV through $RCAT. Similar to $POET $MRVL situation. So lot of upside, I still like $AIRO a lot more personally but to each their own!
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分析$VVX估值偏低但增长慢，适合长线持有，作者因缺乏耐心未选。
研究了 $VVX，看起来是个扎实的价值投资标的，但我的观点是它并非那种爆发力极强的“火箭股”选择。 - 8.5% 的毛利率（大宗商品属性），营收达 44.2 亿美元。但净利率仅为 1.8%。 - 鉴于其债务状况，10-11 倍的前瞻市盈率（Forward P/E）属于正常水平，因为其增长率约为 3%。 - 由于合并原因，净现金为 -9.8 亿美元。 所以超额收益（Alpha）来自于每股收益（EPS）的增长，我对此进行了研究，部分分析师预测其同比增长 24%。今年再降息 2-3 次带来的低利率环境也将对其大有帮助。 因此，如果你有两年的等待耐心，它似乎被低估了，但我更没耐心！
英文原文
Looked into $VVX, seems like a solid value invest but my option is that it’s not exactly a moonshot type pick - 8.5% gross margin (commodity status) but off $4.42B rev. But with 1.8% net margin - 10-11x fwd earnings is standard given its debt, since its growing ~3% - net cash is -$980m bc of their merger So the alpha comes in if it grows EPS which I’ve looked into and some analysts are projecting 24% y/y. Lower interest rates from another 2-3x rate cuts this year also helps them a lot. So seems undervalued if you have a 2 year waiting horizon but I’m more impatient!
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作者持有MSTR多头，认为其估值修复且风险降低，但指出直接投资比特币更安全。
是的，我持有多头 $MSTR。自从其市值接近净资产价值(mnav) 1倍以来表现不错。而且由于比特币国库公司最近未被从 MSCI 指数中剔除，风险已降低。 我从 $156 就开始持有，目前仍比高点下跌 60-70%+，在我看来是不错的反弹标的。但当然，直接投资比特币更安全，因为国库公司存在大幅低于 mnav 的风险，就像当年的 Grayscale 一样。
英文原文
Yeah I’m long $MSTR. It’s great since mnav went closer to 1 again. And it got derisked since Bitcoin treasury companies weren’t delisted from MSCI recently. I’ve been in it since $156, it’s still down 60-70%+ from highs and a good recovery play imo. But of course Bitcoin directly is a lot safer since risks are always there from treasury companies going way under mnav like Grayscale back in the day.
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作者买入SMCI并看多，认为高盛报告低估了其利润率扩张潜力。
我也在$28.3美元买入了一些$SMCI。一直在做波段交易。高盛(Goldman Sachs)的分析师报告充其量极其懒惰。SMCI将2026年的营收预期上调至360亿美元，同比增长超过50%+。这部分源于升级周期带来的硬件成本增加。但他们似乎不理解短期定价策略以锁定初始数字租赁承诺(DLC)周期，利润率会随时间扩张。他们认为预测的9.5%左右的毛利率是永久性的，但实际上它们应该会随时间增加。在我看来，这是一个很好的长线机会，我不同意其他分析师的观点。SMCI看起来定价错误。
英文原文
I bought $SMCI as well at $28.3 as well. Have been swing trading it. Goldman Sachs's analyst report extremely lazy at best. SMCI raised revenue growth over 50%+ to $36B revenue 2026. Part of that is increased hardware costs from upgrade cycle. But they don't seem to understand short term margin pricing to lock in initial DLC cycles, where margins expand over time. They think the forecasted gross margins like 9.5% is permanent, but they should increase over time. Great long here IMO, disagree with the other analysts. SMCI looks mispriced.
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对比META与WMT估值，指出市场存在定价错误。
他们的广告业务正在增长 -> 自由现金流(FCF)足以支付任何资本支出(Capex)。上季度FCF超过100亿美元，但所有人却对支出感到恐慌。 $META 同比增长26%，远期市盈率(Forward P/E)为18.9倍。 $WMT 的增长与通胀持平，远期市盈率却超过40倍。 目前市场存在一些定价错误。
英文原文
They're growing ads -> FCF would pay for any capex. FCF was $10B+ Last quarter yet everyone was scared for their lives on spend. $META is growing 26% Y/Y and their forward P/E is 18.9X. $WMT is growing in line with inflation with a forward P/E of 40x+. There's just some mispricing in the market right now
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Meta 资本支出叙事被高估，AI 投资回报率高，预期利润增长将扭转市场看法。
我的观点是，在财报发布后的最初几秒内，$META 的下跌是一场算法闪崩，原因是 BBB 未被标准化（尽管 Meta 在所有方面都超预期）。 抛售发生后的几分钟内，新闻开始铺天盖地地报道 Meta 因资本支出“担忧”而下跌，而不是报道其业绩超预期。这成为了市场叙事。但事实上，即使有“疯狂”的支出，Meta 上季度仍产生了 106 亿美元的自由现金流(FCF)。 你说得对，分析师们忽略了这一点。但自那以后，维持 META 当前股价的是叙事/表象，而非数字（186 亿美元净利润）。 但我会说，这次的情况类似于当时所有人都说 $GOOGL 搜索业务正在消亡的时候。我记得在 145 美元时做多 Google，因为数据表明事实并非如此。 如果我们看现在的数据，所有人都在声称 $META 的资本支出(CapEx)失控（2025 年 720 亿美元，2026 年约 1000 亿美元），并将吞噬所有利润。 然而，$META 上季度以惊人的 26% 速度增长，因为他们自己的 AI 基础设施优化广告收入的回报率目前高于地球上几乎任何其他投资，所以我不认为他们需要给出其他答案。只需指向营收增长/净利润即可。 当每股收益(EPS)从 1.05 美元增长到预计的约 8.30 美元（季度跳跃 690%）时，我认为叙事将转变为他们的利润 > 资本支出。 分析师（Cantor Fitzgerald, Rosenblatt, Wedbush）一直给出 2026 年 800–1,100 美元的目标价(PT)，有时只需要下一次财报带来的叙事转变。但我们将看看这是否正确。
英文原文
So my thesis was that during first few seconds, $META post-ER was an algorithmic flash crash from BBB not being normalized (despite Meta beating on all fronts). Minutes around the selloff, news started posting everywhere Meta was dropping due to capex "fears", rather than posting their earnings beats. And that became the narrative. But in reality, even with the "insane" spending, Meta generated $10.6B in FCF last quarter. You're right analysts look past that. But ever since then it became narrative/optics rather than numbers ($18.6B net profit) that kept META where it;s at now. But I'd say this time is similar to when everyone was saying $GOOGL search was dying. I remember entering Google longs at $145 because the numbers were saying otherwise. If we look at the numbers now, everyone is claiming $META CapEx is out of control ($72B in 2025, ~$100B in 2026) and will eat all the profits. Yet $META grew at astounding rates with 26% last quarter because the ROI on their own AI infra for optimizing ad revenue is currently higher than almost any other investment on earth, so I don't quite think they need an answer. Just point to revenue growth/net profit. And when they go from a $1.05 EPS to a projected ~$8.30 EPS (690% quarterly jump), I think the narrative will change that their profits > capex. Analysts (Cantor Fitzgerald, Rosenblatt, Wedbush) have are been giving $800–$1,100 PTs for 2026, sometimes all it takes is a narrative shift from their next er. But we'll see if this is right or not.
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META基本面强劲，当前低估值源于会计处理导致的表象问题，极具买入价值。
$META 对我来说看起来是一个极具吸引力的买入机会，因为这似乎是一个光学（市场情绪/表象）问题，而非基本面问题。上个季度，他们实现了高达 186 亿美元的净利润，但由于一次性会计处理（BBB），报告的收益仅为 27.1 亿美元。尽管人们因 AI 资本支出（Capex）而对自由现金流（FCF）感到担忧，但从数字上看，他们依然拥有惊人的盈利能力。当人们看到在不进行税收正常化（Tax Normalization）的情况下，收入环比增长超过 700% 时，这种市场情绪应该会反向发挥作用。
英文原文
$META seems like a screaming buy to me, as this looks like an optics issue rather than fundamentals. Last quarter, they had a whopping $18.6B in net profit but reported $2.71B from BBB one time accounting. Everyone was fearful of FCF due AI capex but numbers wise they’re still wildly profitable. Should work in reverse with optics when people see a 700%+ q/q income growth when they don’t do tax normalization.
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认为$META盈利强劲，且走势与去年相似，核心在于市场对会计表象的反应。
我认为这很大程度上是由于自由现金流(FCF)/盈利能力的会计表象，但 $META 简直是在印钞。 另外，如果我们看去年的“巫毒图表”（一种非正统的技术分析图表），它与去年10月至11月的下跌以及1月15日之后的反弹惊人地相似。当然，趋势图表分析都是假的，但有时确实有效。 但核心论点仅仅是市场如何对会计表象做出反应。
英文原文
It is, i believe it’s largely due to accounting optics regarding FCF/profitability but $META is just printing money. Also if we voodoo chart from last year, it looks shockingly similar with a drop from oct-> Nov and rally Jan 15th onward last year. Again, trend charting is all fake but they do work out sometimes. But main thesis is just how markets react to accounting optics.
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Meta盈利被会计手段掩盖，预计下季叙事反转。
$META 的盈利能力简直惊人。但这只是叙事。 当我在 145 美元买入 $GOOGL 多头时，尽管数据表明事实并非如此，但所有人都说搜索业务正在消亡。 在 Meta 的案例中，他们正在疯狂印钞，而这只是表面现象。上个季度的净利润本应为 186 亿美元（大幅超预期），但由于“美好法案”（big beautiful bill）的影响，报告值仅为 27.1 亿美元。 我猜测，当他们在下个季度通过会计手段进行反向操作（reverse uno）以优化表面数据时，市场叙事将再次改变。 只是想发个帖子看看我的预测是否正确。
英文原文
$META is insanely profitable. That’s just narrative. When I bought $GOOGL longs at $145 everyone was saying search was dying even though numbers say otherwise. In Meta’s case they’re printing money and this is just optics. Net income last quarter would be $18.6B (large beat) but reported was $2.71B from big beautiful bill. My guess is when they play reverse uno, with accounting optics next quarter the narrative changes again. Just wanted to post to see if it turns out right
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因算法对EPS波动的反应及Q4季节性利好，在625美元加仓META。
我在 $META 625美元处加仓了。 我的理论是： 《大而美法案》(Big beautiful bill) 搞砸了他们上次财报，尽管业绩超预期。 这引发了投机性的算法抛售，因为每股收益(EPS)看起来人为偏低（环比下降80%）。 下一次财报将反向运作。 第四季度(Q4)财报 -> EPS看起来人为偏高（例如环比增长700%+）-> 高频交易(HFT)算法买入股票。 Meta 同比增长26%，尽管资本支出(capex)巨大，但盈利能力极强。 第四季度的季节性因素（例如假日广告收入）也应该是一个助推器。 鉴于16日有大量未平仓合约(open interest)以及潜在的美伊冲突，很难精准抄底，但这里看起来是一个很好的多头(long)机会。特别是如果我想交易算法对会计因素(accounting alpha)反应带来的阿尔法收益。 听起来很蠢，但市场有时就是这样运作的，看重表象(optics)。我们看看是否正确。
英文原文
I added positions in $META at $625 My theory: Big beautiful bill wrecked their last earnings despite record beat. This caused an speculated algorithmic selloff from artificially low looking EPS (-80% drop) This works in reverse for next earnings. Q4 earnings -> EPS looks artificially high (eg. 700%+ q/q growth)-> HFT algorithms buy stock. Meta grew 26% Y/Y and is stupidly profitable despite any capex spend. Seasonality from Q4 (eg. Ad revenue from holidays) should also be a booster. Hard to bottom time given large open interest on 16th and potential Iran US conflicts, but looks like a great long here. Especially if I want to trade the accounting alpha in how algorithms react. Sounds really stupid but markets work that way sometime with optics. We’ll see if it’s right or not.
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看好$AIRO，认为其具备更高上行潜力
@__visionxry__ $AIRO 具有更高的上行空间
英文原文
@__visionxry__ $AIRO for higher upside
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看好$OSS在美军装备中的广泛应用及供不应求的高增长前景。
@B38B37 $OSS 很棒！ 他们的身影已经遍布美国军队的部署，从艾布拉姆斯/布雷德利坦克到配备宙斯盾(Aegis)系统的美国海军战舰，再到战术无人机。凭借高利润率、极具粘性的技术，以及供不应求的需求。 很期待看到它在未来一年的发展走向。
英文原文
@B38B37 $OSS is great! They’re already everywhere across US army deployments from Abrams/Bradley Tanks to US Navy Warships for Aegis, and tactical drones. With both high margins, incredibly sticky tech, and demand outstripping supply. Excited to see where it heads over the next year
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地缘冲突与巨额军费推动高超音速导弹及无人机板块。
@Under10Sniper 这就是那个“通过高超音速导弹和无人机打击实现和平”的投资组合。该板块的催化剂实在太多了，从1.5万亿美元的战争部(Department of War)拨款，到委内瑞拉、乌克兰、伊朗甚至可能包括格陵兰岛在内的各地冲突。
英文原文
@Under10Sniper This is the peace through hypersonic missiles and drone strikes portfolio. There’s just way too many catalysts going on for this sector from $1.5T Department of War funding to conflicts going on everywhere from Venezuela, Ukraine, Iran, and even maybe Greenland.
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计划研究VVX，已买入AIRO替代ONDS，承认研究存在遗漏。
@Rachel308649775 提到 $VVX 这个名字很有趣，我稍后会去研究一下。 是的，我最终买入了 $AIRO，因为它比 $ONDS 便宜得多，但我确信在我的研究中肯定还漏掉了其他标的。
英文原文
@Rachel308649775 Interesting name drop with $VVX I’ll take a look soon. Yeah I ended up buying $AIRO since it was much cheaper than $ONDS but I’m sure there was others I missed in my research
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美政府警告撤离伊朗，推荐布局战争相关概念股。
紧急：美国政府：“立即离开伊朗”。 这暗示美国将直接干预。 上一次事件涉及GBU-57A/B钻地弹(MOPs)。 以下是如何从美国入侵伊朗中获利。 战争部门股票： $OSS - 边缘AI(Edge AI) $AVAV - 无人机打击 $BA, $NOC, $RTX - 钻地弹 $KTOS - 用于吸引敌方火力、干扰雷达并引导F-35和B-21的瓦尔基里无人机 这很简单。尤其是在美国入侵委内瑞拉之后。 市场可能会有很大波动，但最大的受益者是纯战争垂直领域的股票。
英文原文
Urgent: US Government: “Leave Iran Now”. This implies direct US intervention. The last event was with GBU-57A/B MOPs. Here’s how to profit off US invading Iran. Department of War stocks: $OSS - Edge AI $AVAV - Drone Strikes $BA, $NOC, $RTX - Bunker Bombs $KTOS - Valkyries for drawing enemy fire, jam radars, and lead F-35s and B-21s It’s pretty simple. Especially following US invasion of Venezuela. There’s likely a lot of market volatility but the largest beneficiaries are pure play War verticals.
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反驳对英特尔的悲观定价，强调其国家安全地位及政府支持。
抱歉，但Stacy如果在用标准财务模型对$INTC进行建模，并将其定价为一家烧钱的代工厂，那简直是在开玩笑。从国家安全的角度来看，它现在已是美国政府事实上的半导体臂膀。无限的印钞机不会让它失败。如果$NVDA或其他公司有任何机会，他们也会受到压力去帮助英特尔。看清这一现实绝非退化。如果Bernstein想给出准确的预测，他们需要审视所有角度，而不是因为特朗普而忽略最大的顺风因素。
英文原文
Sorry but Stacy is trolling if they are applying standard financial modeling to $INTC and pricing it like a cash burning foundry. It’s the unspoken de facto semi arm of the US government for national security at this point. The infinite money printer won’t let it fail. And any chance $NVDA or others get, they’ll be pressured to help Intel. It’s not degenerate at all to see that reality. If Bernstein wants to give an accurate projection they need to look at all the angles instead of ignoring the biggest tailwind because of Trump.
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看好$FLY因诺斯罗普合作，但执行风险高于$RKLB。
$FLY 是我 2026 年多头持仓的一部分，鉴于其与诺斯罗普·格鲁曼(Northrop)合作的中程有效载荷发射项目。我确实看好它，但显然最大的风险在于执行层面，而 $RKLB 在此方面历来拥有较高的成功率。我实际上曾发布过关于它的投资论点，只是不像 $SNAP 或其他股票那样经常提及。
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$FLY is part of my longs for 2026 given medium lift payload launch with Northrop. I do like it but obviously the biggest risk is execution related where $RKLB historically had high success. I actually posted a thesis about it, I just don’t post often about it like $SNAP or others.
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质疑$SIDU财务风险，但看好其高超音速导弹探测卫星业务。
是的，鉴于其疯狂的稀释效应和未盈利状态，我认为 $SIDU 是上面唯一存疑的标的。 但他们正在做的事情真的很酷：为“金穹顶”项目构建用于探测高超音速导弹的卫星。 虽然官方没有明确这么说，但这一点是可以推断出来的。
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Yeah I think $SIDU is the only questionable one up there given insane dilution and unprofitability. But what they're doing is really cool building out satellites for detecting hypersonic missile for the golden dome program. I dont think it's explicitly said that way but it's pretty inferred
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作者分享挖掘OSS合同信息先于市场发现价值
@_stockResearch @amitisinvesting 市场最终无论如何都会将 $OSS 纳入定价。我只是碰巧在其他人之前，通过挖掘合同并从公开信息中综合出了一些战斗验证(combat validation)。
英文原文
@_stockResearch @amitisinvesting Markets would have priced $OSS in with or without me eventually. I just happened to do a bit of digging into contracts and discovered some combat validation from public information synthesis before others did.
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$OSS 转型为高毛利军用AI硬件商，预期受巨额军费支出推动重估。
感谢分享，$OSS 已广泛应用于美国军事部署，并在委内瑞拉完成了使用验证。 市场此前大多忽视了它，因为其混合利润率（blended margins）较低，被误认为是大宗商品转售商。且未能将其早期合同拼凑起来看。 在剥离部分业务后，$OSS 现在看起来更像是一家为 AI 和边缘军事部署提供专用、高利润率、加固硬件（ruggedized hardware）的供应商。 话虽如此，小盘股确实存在风险，但我预计鉴于拟议中 1.5 万亿美元战争部门支出的顺风，其估值将得到重估。
英文原文
Thanks for sharing, $OSS is used across many US military deployments already with usage validation in Venezuela. Markets largely ignored this one earlier because of blended margins (thought to be a commodity reseller). And not putting the pieces together from their earlier contracts. After selling off some segments, $OSS now starts to like a specialized, high margin, ruggedized hardware provider for AI and edge military deployments. That being said smaller caps do carry risk but I do expect this to be re-rated given the tailwinds from the proposed $1.5T department of war spend.