个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2378 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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作者主张AXTI因磷化铟瓶颈及短期供应短缺而具投资价值。
@_stockResearch 谢谢，我想把关于 $AXTI 的论点归功于我，因为我是最早公开发布该论点的人之一。这仅仅是机构对非常保守的目标价(PT)的认可，但我主要的论点围绕的是磷化铟(InP)瓶颈以及将在2-3个月内发生的巨大供应短缺。
英文原文
@_stockResearch Thanks, I'd like to take credit as one of the first ones to publicly post the thesis around $AXTI. This is just institutional validation regarding very conservative PTs, but my main thesis is around the InP bottleneck and massive supply shortage that happens in 2-3 months.
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博主确认其关于AXTI因磷化铟瓶颈导致供应短缺的核心论点。
@_stockResearch 谢谢，我想把作为最早公开发布关于 $AXTI 投资论点的人之一这一功劳归于自己。这仅仅是初步验证，但我核心的论点围绕的是磷化铟(InP)瓶颈以及将在2-3个月内发生的巨大供应短缺。
英文原文
@_stockResearch Thanks, I'd like to take credit as one of the first ones to publicly post the thesis around $AXTI. This is just validation at start, but my main thesis is around the InP bottleneck and massive supply shortage that happens in 2-3 months.
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Craig-Hallum上调AXTI评级至买入，看好其InP垄断地位带来的重估潜力。
最新消息：Craig-Hallum 将 $AXTI 评级上调至“买入”，目标价 $26，涨幅 160%。 他们指出 AXT 受益于“三重动态”，即： - 限制竞争对手（住友、JX） - 同时在 Northland 融资后增加产能。 被《华尔街日报》评为第一的半导体分析师 Shannon 预计 AXT 2028 年每股收益为 $0.75，假设 AXT 是“正常”成长股，给予 30 倍估值。 关键国防/AI 供应链（如 Heico 或专业芯片公司）通常交易在 50-60 倍，这将使 $AXTI 目标价达到 $37.50（作为成长股）。 然而，如果“供应冲击”论点成立且 $AXT 成为战略垄断者，其估值逻辑将像 $MU 或 Sandisk 一样彻底重构，我们可能会看到大幅重估。 这是一种“阶梯式”估值，分析师通常会逐步上调目标价。如果 $AXTI 下周涨至 $28，他可能会发布新报告将其上调至 $32。 机构正在验证这一论点，但在价格和 X 上的 alpha 上均落后。
英文原文
Just in: Craig-Hallum re-rates $AXTI to "Buy" with a $26 price target, a 160% increase. They stated AXT benefits from a "trifecta of dynamics" that put: - constraints on competitors (Sumitomo, JX) - while increasing capacity after Northland's Capital raise. Shannon, ranked as the #1 Semiconductor Analyst on WSJ, pegs AXT at $0.75 EPS by 2028, applying a 30x multiple by assuming AXT is a "normal" growth company. Critical defense/AI supply chains (like Heico or specialized chip firms) can easily trade at 50x-60x, which would set $AXTI at a $37.50 PT (for a growth company). However, if the "Supply Shock" thesis holds and $AXT becomes a strategic monopoly, the math completely breaks like $MU or Sandisk, and we might see a massive re-rating upward. This is a "Step-Ladder" valuation, analysts typically walk the target up. If $AXTI goes to $28 next week, he will likely issue a new note raising it to $32. Institutions are validating the thesis, but are trailing both the price and alpha on X.
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ULBI财务恶化且毛利低，预计将大幅稀释，建议避开。
@_gautam94 @KawzInvests 提醒一下，$ULBI 负债 -5030 万美元，累计应计费用 -8480 万美元，仅剩 930 万美元现金。其毛利率仅为 22%，处于大宗商品地位。这就是其市销率(P/S)偏低的原因，预计未来会有大幅稀释。我可能会避开。
英文原文
@_gautam94 @KawzInvests Just a heads up $ULBI has -50.3M in debt, -84.8M total accrued expenses, with $9.3M left. They're also commodity status as 22% gross margin. That's the reason for low P/S number, there is likely heavy dilution ahead. I'd likely stay away
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澄清身份混淆，重申对AXTI的看好。
@Skypioneer11 我觉得你把我和 @zephyr_z9 搞混了，我一直都很看好 $AXTI。
英文原文
@Skypioneer11 I think you're confusing me with @zephyr_z9, I've always liked $AXTI
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说明自己买入 VLN 的估值逻辑
你们自己对 $VLN 下结论吧！ 我个人买入，是因为我觉得它不应该接近按资产/市值 1:1 的水平交易。 即使经历了周五之后，它的 EV/收入也接近 2 倍，而其他公司是 14-18 倍；考虑到它毛利率接近 70%（混合毛利率会干扰计算），这个估值仍然很低。 这只是我个人的 thesis，不适合所有人。
英文原文
Come to your own conclusion on $VLN! I personally bought because I thought it shouldn’t trade close to 1:1 with assets/MC. And even after Friday it’s close to 2 EV/revenue while others trade 14-18, given its gross margins are close to 70% (blended margins messes up calculations) So that’s just my own personal thesis, it’s not for everyone
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继续加仓 AVAV，同时持有 AIRO 覆盖无人机攻防
@SayNoToTrading 对，我一直在向上摊高 $AVAV 的成本！我的 $AIRO 仓位表现也很好。 我把两边都覆盖了： $AIRO 做拦截无人机，用来反制无人机攻击（子弹拦截器）。 $AVAV 负责无人机打击。 两个都很酷。
英文原文
@SayNoToTrading Yeah I’ve been cost averaging up on $AVAV! My $AIRO positions have been doing great as well. I’ve got all the grounds covered: $AIRO interceptor drones to counter drone strikes (bullet interceptor) $AVAV does the drone striking Both are super cool
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认为 VLN 是高毛利 fabless 半导体的疯狂低估值
这篇 $VLN thesis 很不错！我的想法类似：一家拥有一级客户、毛利率极高的 fabless 半导体公司，竟然只按荒谬的约 2 倍 EV/收入交易。 我觉得大家还没理解：一家没有债务、8000 万美元前瞻收入、63% 毛利率、机器人/工业垂直业务毛利率 69.1%（占收入 75%+，同比增长 40%）的公司，不应该接近市值、现金/资产 1:1 的水平交易。 人们只是拿“内幕卖出”或“以色列公司”当空头理由，却不看财务。 这个估值太疯狂了。
英文原文
Nice thesis on $VLN! Similar thoughts where you have an extremely high margin fabless semi trading (with t1 customers) trading close to a ridiculous 2 ev/revenue. Don’t think people quite understand that you don’t have companies trading close to 1:1 marketcap, cash/assets if they have no debt, $80m fwd revenue off 63% gross margins, 69.1% on their robotics/industrial vertical (75%+ of revenue growing 40% y/y). People are just citing “insider sales” or “Israeli company” as bear cases without looking at the financials. This is a crazy valuation
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极度看多 AVAV，认为其是军事无人机打击核心标的
我对 $AVAV 是 omega long。 这可能是“委内瑞拉入侵组合”里最酷的公司。 如果你想要一个 TLDR pitch：他们制造了委内瑞拉主要使用的神风无人机。 -> 美国入侵格陵兰？受益 -> 美国用无人机打击墨西哥贩毒集团？受益 40 亿美元 backlog，最近 8.87 亿美元合同，收入同比增长 150%（对军工承包商来说离谱得不正常），而且后面还会从 1.5 万亿美元的战争部资金里拿到更多。 如果你想要一家像《使命召唤》五杀连杀奖励那样、被战争部用于每次军事行动的无人机打击公司，$AVAV 就是多头。
英文原文
I’m omega long on $AVAV. This is probably the coolest company in the “Venezuela Invasion port” If you want a TLDR pitch: they made the Kamikaze drones primarily used in Venezuela. -> US invasion of Greenland? Profit -> US drone striking Mexican Cartels? Profit $4b backlog, $887m contract recently, 150% y/y revenue growth (which is unholy for a military contractor), and a lot more coming from the $1.5T Department of War funding. If you want a 5 kill streak Call of Duty style Drone Strike company used in every military engagement by the Department of War, $AVAV is long.
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调侃 Target 和 Walmart 的估值
@LongInnovation $TGT 的市盈率是 12 倍，对一个平底锅转卖商来说算合理估值。 主要区别是，有些 $WMT 门店里面还有 Taco Bell。
英文原文
@LongInnovation $TGT has a P/E of 12, which is fair value for a frying pan reseller. The main difference is some $WMT stores have Taco Bell inside.
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认为纸巾转卖商增长不能和 MRVL 相比
@RickyFrogFrog 对……大家确实还需要卫生纸。 话虽如此，我不认为转卖纸巾能获得和 $MRVL（29 倍 PE）一样的增长估值；后者两年内收入会翻倍。
英文原文
@RickyFrogFrog yeah.. everyone still needs toilet paper. That being said, don't think reselling tissue paper commands the same growth as $MRVL (29 p/e), which are doubling their revenues in 2 years.
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讽刺零售商估值不该接近 Nvidia
@SatrialesSnacks 他们真的只是转卖便宜袜子。 $NVDA 是整个 AI 热潮的中心，却和一个钓鱼竿转卖商差不多的 PE，这不合逻辑。
英文原文
@SatrialesSnacks They literally resell cheap socks. It's not logical that $NVDA, the center of the entire AI boom, has about the same P/E as a fishing rod reseller.
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质疑沃尔玛40倍市盈率的合理性，认为其增速不及台积电和美光。
谁能告诉我为什么沃尔玛(WMT)的市盈率(P/E)高达40？ 这个宝可梦卡牌和毛巾的倒卖商，难道应该比$TSM (33)和$MU (32)增长得更快吗？ https://t.co/kR3v3PQP13
英文原文
Can anyone tell me why Walmart has a P/E of 40? Is this Pokemon Card and Towel reseller supposed to be growing faster than $TSM (33) and $MU (32)? https://t.co/kR3v3PQP13
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询问其他博主对INV的投资逻辑。
@stonksamiam @joceyreyes209 @AccelsiusATX 澄清一下，你们对 $INV 的投资逻辑是什么？
英文原文
@stonksamiam @joceyreyes209 @AccelsiusATX Just to clarify, what was your thesis on $INV?
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暗示CRDO在野村研报中频繁出现，但未给出具体预测。
@Potato___Dragon 我不会对 $CRDO 给出预测，但只能说它出现的频率很高。（来源：野村证券股票研究）https://t.co/JvNh7wpCsx
英文原文
@Potato___Dragon I’m not giving projections on $CRDO but let’s just say it shows up a lot. (Credit: Nomura Equity Research) https://t.co/JvNh7wpCsx
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反驳VLN拉高出货论，强调其基本面重定价及数据污染问题。
这是一次重定价事件，基于一家拥有三星、LG、奔驰等客户的正规半导体公司的资产负债表，模型显示其价值从-8200万美元开始调整。 如果你认为 $VLN 是“拉高出货(pump and dump)”，那你完全误解了，因为目前所有算法和大语言模型(LLM)仍在使用受污染的数据。 这纯粹是信息发现过程，市场正在对此进行定价。 如果你想了解财务状况而不仅仅是看市值，我建议你阅读我的置顶帖子。
英文原文
This is a repricing event from -$82 Million modeled off the balance sheet of a legitimate semiconductor that has Samsung, LG, Mercedes and others as customers. You’re completely misunderstanding if you think $VLN a pump and dump when every algorithm and LLM still use contaminated data. This is purely information discovery and markets pricing it in. I’d suggest you read my pinned post if you want to understand the financials rather than just looking at marketcap.
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指出算法误判$VLN财务数据导致做空，散户提前发现真相。
$VLN 零债务，持有 $9350 万现金和 $1100 万库存。几乎所有基于 $VLN 筛选器和数据网站污染数据建模的算法或大语言模型(LLM)都误以为其因 -$8200 万库存消耗导致的 $1 亿成本将在一年内破产。这一错误至今未纠正，因此周五出现了大量算法做空。只有 X 上的散户(Retail)早期发现了这一点。
英文原文
$VLN has 0 debt, $93.5M cash and $11M in inventory. Almost every algorithm or LLM modeled off of contaminated data from $VLN screeners and data sites thinking they will go under in 1 year from $100m in costs from -$82m inventory burn. This is still not corrected yet so we saw a ton of algorithmic shorts on Friday. Only retail on X found out about this early
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CRDO因市场误读亚马逊线缆颜色大跌后反弹，作者批评市场逻辑幼稚。
$CRDO 现已回升 15.47%+。 有趣的是，仅仅因为 $AMZN 不喜欢紫色线缆，Credo 的市值就被抹去了数十亿美元。 Credo：“我们同比增长了 272%，每股收益超出预期 35%。” 市场：“是啊，但那些线缆是紫色的吗？” 有时市场很愚蠢，用幼儿园级别的逻辑进行交易。 https://t.co/L2RjbB04GM
英文原文
$CRDO is now back up 15.47%+. It's funny billions were wiped from Credo just because $AMZN doesn't like Purple. Credo: "We grew 272% Y/Y and beat earnings by 35%." Market: "Yeah, but are the cables Purple?" Sometimes markets are stupid and trade off Kindergarten logic. https://t.co/L2RjbB04GM
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澄清 $VLN 基本面，反驳 Reddit 误解，指出其财务健康及机器人业务增长。
哈哈，Reddit 大概是我互动的最蠢的群体。如果你读过我在 Reddit 的帖子，我会故意关闭大脑去和社区互动。 不幸的是，你现在在 X 上。 你们唯一说对的就是他们是以色列公司。除此之外，他们确实制造芯片组。名字里就有“半导体”这个词。 他们的信息在公开文件中，因为这是纽约证券交易所监管的半导体公司，我不知道你们指的“缺失信息”是什么。这不是那种拉高出货的中国仙股，而是一家拥有从三星到梅赛德斯等一线客户的真正半导体公司。 公司现金为 9350 万美元，不是 3000 万。他们零债务。任何“投资”可能只是让人混淆的存入国债的现金。 你们看到的一些负债是行权价为 11.5 美元的认股权证、运营支出或以股票形式支付的股权激励。第三季度每股收益为 -0.04 美元，而在 2026 年底转为正数，如果他们刚刚为机器人领域推出新芯片并以 40% 的年增长率扩张，这是极好的事情。 直接去看他们的实际财报，而不是像 MarketWatch 这样的扫描器。帖子的部分重点就是他们混淆了纽约证券交易所的 $VLN 和多伦多的 $VLN。
英文原文
lol Reddit is perhaps the dumbest group i interact with. If you read my Reddit posts I turn off my brain on purpose to interact with the community. Unfortunately you’re on X now. The only thing you got right was that they’re from Israel. Aside from that they literally make chipsets. There’s the word Semiconductor in its name. Their information is in public filings since it’s a regulated semiconductor on NYSE, I don’t know what “missing information you’re referring to”. This is not a pump and dump Chinese penny, it’s an actual semiconductor firm with t1 customers from Samsung to Mercedes. The company has $93.5 million in cash not $30 million. They have 0 debt. Any “investments” might just be confusing cash deposited in treasuries. Some of liabilities you see are $11.5 strike warrants, opex, or equity bonuses paid out in shares. -.04 EPS q3 earnings while shifting to positive late 2026 is a extremely good thing if they just created a new chip for the robotics sector and are growing it 40% y/y Go directly to their actual earnings, not scanners like market watch which was paetly the point of the post was that they’re conflating $VLN NYSE with $VLN Toronto.
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看好$VLN长期持有，认为其估值仍有翻倍空间且机器人业务前景广阔。
是的，我研究得越深入就越喜欢它。我个人持有 $VLN 股票超过1年。其他人可以随意使用这些信息。我的思路是，市场可能需要一些时间才能将14-18倍市销率(EV/Revenue)这样的溢价计入股价。但即使短期来看，5-7倍市销率也更有可能，这仍然大约是当前股价的两倍。此外，其增长最快的业务板块利润率极高，我预计机器人(Robotics)将成为2026年及2027年的巨大主题。
英文原文
Yeah the more I look into it the more I like it. I’m holding personally holding my $VLN shares 1Y+. Others can do whatever they want with the information. My thought process is that it would likely take some time to price in premiums like 14-18 ev/revenue anyway. But even short term something like 5-7 is more likely, which is still around double current prices. Also it’s extremely high margin too for their fastest growing segments, and I expect robotics to be a huge theme in 2026 and into 2027.
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VLN估值严重偏低，基本面显示其存在巨大重估空间。
你拥有一家拥有8000万美元远期营收、英伟达($NVDA)级别毛利率的无晶圆厂机器人半导体公司，其现金/库存与市值之比接近1:1。即便在上涨60%后，$VLN的市值/营收(EV/revenue)比率仅为2.4倍，而同类公司的交易区间在14-18倍之间。若重估至标准的10倍EV/revenue，其价格将是当前价格的3倍以上。这就是为什么自己进行基本面估值计算比看百分比变化要好，因为这看起来像是算法幻觉导致的极端错误定价。
英文原文
You had a $80m forward revenue, $NVDA-margin fabless robotics semi trading close to 1:1 cash/inventory to marketcap. Even after 60% run $VLN literally sits at 2.4 EV/revenue, while similar companies trade between 14-18. Re-rating to a standard 10 EV/revenue would be over 3 times+ current prices. This is why it's good to do the fundamental valuation math yourself rather than looking at percentage changes since this looks to be extreme mispricing from algorithm hallucination.
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发现机器人供应链标的$VLN估值极低，认为其严重被低估。
谢谢，$VLN 是我在研究机器人供应链时的一项惊人发现。我无法相信一家拥有 8000 万美元以上远期收入、且其增长的机器人业务毛利率高达 69% 的公司，其交易价格几乎与现金和库存余额 1:1 持平。即使在周五之后，$VLN 2.4 倍的 EV/Revenue（企业价值/收入）倍数看起来也完全不合理，因为相关公司的交易倍数为 14-18 倍，若有溢价甚至超过 30 倍。
英文原文
Thanks, $VLN was just an incredible discovery when I was looking through robotics supply chains. I'm in disbelief that a company with $80M+ forward revenue with 69% gross margins from their growing robotics segments was trading almost 1:1 with their cash and inventory balance. Even after Friday, 2.4x EV/revenue on $VLN just looks completely off when related companies trade at 14-18 multiples, or even 30+ if there's premiums.
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VLN转型高毛利AI业务，巨额现金消耗压制当前估值。
-8200万美元的现金消耗产生了极其巨大的实质性影响。 我来回顾一下历史： 去年，$VLN 还是一家低毛利（毛利率仅40%出头）、单一客户依赖梅赛德斯-奔驰的汽车芯片制造商，且该业务板块下滑了37.9%。 自那以来发生了许多实质性变化，他们成功将核心知识产权转型为适用于机器视觉机器人到医疗垂直领域等广泛应用的新型芯片组，实现了类似 $NVDA 69-70%的高毛利率。 该新业务板块目前占其收入的75%以上（同比增长40%+），而其汽车板块则下降了37%+。 如果模型中没有计入这-8200万美元的现金消耗，鉴于机器人和AI领域的估值溢价，Valens 今天的股价可能已超过10美元以上，对应10-12倍的EV倍数（即便这仍偏低）。 但你可以基于上述财务数据自行得出估值结论。
英文原文
-$82M burn made a extremely, extremely big material difference. I'll give you some history: $VLN last year was a low margin, automotive chipmaker (low 40's gross margin) and single supplier dependent on Mercedes, with this segment declining -37.9%. There's been a lot of material changes since then, and they were able to pivot their core IP to a new chipset for broad applications from machine vision in robotics to medical verticals, with $NVDA like 69-70% gross margins. That vertical now makes up 75%+ of their revenue (growing 40%+ Y/Y), while their automotive segment decreased 37%+. If there was no -$82M burn modeled, Valens might be trading above $10+ today with 10-12x EV Multiple (on the low end still) given to robotics and AI segments. But feel free to come up with your own valuation metric based on the financials above.
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指出$VLN因数据错误被算法低估，实为高毛利AI芯片股，建议手动建模验证。
Valens 在 $2.5 的价格看起来存在极端的错误定价。 所谓的 -8200 万美元库存消耗（Inventory Burn）是一个巨大的数据错误，很可能是由于 $VLN 和 $VLN 多伦多股票代码冲突（Ticker Collision）导致的。 散户投资者已经提前发现了这个 Alpha（超额收益机会）。 然而，算法尚未察觉，因为它们仍在基于 -8200 万美元的消耗建模负企业价值（Negative EV）（这需要人工修正）。 鼓励大家从 Stonegate、Streetwise 和扫描器上发布的财务数据中，对以下所有信息进行事实核查，特别是关于 -8200 万美元的错误。 $VLN 因其 2.55 亿美元的市场规模而被严重误解。 这并非因为公司质量，也绝对不是某种“拉高出货”的中国仙股。而是由于算法定价在 -8200 万美元消耗导致的一年内跑道（Runway）不足而受到的人为压制。 这是一家被极度错误定价的 AI 和机器人无晶圆厂（Fabless）芯片制造商，拥有： - 梅赛德斯 - 三星 - Mobileye (EyeQ6) - 西门子 - Logitech 以及许多其他领先的 OEM 和机器人公司作为客户。 $VLN 拥有： - 零债务。 - 9350 万美元现金和 1100 万美元以上的库存。 - 1100 万美元以上的库存。 - 约 8000 万美元以上的预计远期收入。 - 其机器人/机器视觉/工业垂直领域的毛利率为 69.1%（同比增长 40%）。汽车板块的混合毛利率将其拉低至 63.0%。 如果你想比较类似的公司： - Lattice $LSCC 交易在约 19 倍和 23 倍 EV/Revenue（企业价值/收入比）。 - Macom $MTSI，交易在约 13 倍和 16.5 倍 EV/Revenue。 Valens 的交易价格为： 2.4 倍。这看起来像是一个故障（Glitch）。 即使是非溢价、毛利率 20-30% 的公司，交易倍数也在 4-5 倍。 我们现在看到一家拥有 $NVDA 级别毛利率的无晶圆厂芯片制造商，在机器人机器视觉到 AI 汽车领域存在极端的错误定价。 最后一点： 我鼓励每个人根据财务数据自己做估值建模。 然后对 -8200 万美元的错误进行尽职调查。 也许你会得出与我相同的结论，即在 $2.5 时存在极端的错误定价。 你拥有一家无债务、拥有 $NVDA 级别毛利率的机器人/AI 领域无晶圆厂芯片制造商，拥有 Tier-1 客户，但由于技术报告错误而以困境倍数交易。 这可能是历史上散户发现的最罕见时刻之一。
英文原文
Valens looks like extreme mispricing at $2.5. The -$82M inventory burn was a massive data error, likely from ticker collision between $VLN and $VLN Toronto. Retail has found out about the alpha early. Yet algorithms have not caught on yet, as they're still modeling negative EV from -$82M burn (this requires manual correction). Everyone is encouraged to fact check everything below from financials posted to -$82M error on Stonegate, Streetwise, and scanners. $VLN is heavily misunderstood due to its $255M market cap size. This is not due to company quality and it's definitely not some pump and dump Chinese penny stock. But an artificial suppression from algorithmic pricing in <1Y runway from $82m burn. This is a extremely mispriced AI & Robotics fabless chipmaker with: - Mercedes - Samsung - Mobileye (EyeQ6) - Siemens - Logitch and many other leading OEMs and Robotics companies as customers. $VLN has - Zero Debt. - $93.5 Million Cash and $11M+ in Inventory - $11 Million + in inventory. - ~$80M+ est. forward revenue - 69.1% gross margins on their robotics/machine vision/industrial vertical (growing 40% Y/Y). Blended margins from their automotive segment brings it down to 63.0%. If you want to compare similar companies: - Lattice $LSCC trades around 19x and 23x EV/Revenue. - Macom $MTSI, trades around 13x and 16.5x. EV/Revenue. Valens trades at: 2.4x. Which looks like a glitch. Even non-premium, 20-30% gross margin, companies trade at 4-5x. We now see an extreme mispricing of a $NVDA-margin fabless chipmaker in verticals for machine vision in robotics to AI automotive sectors. Final Point: I encourage everyone to do valuation modeling themselves from the financial data. And then do due diligence on the -$82M error. Maybe you'll come to the same conclusion that I did regarding the extreme mispricing at $2.5. You have a debt-free, $NVDA-margin fabless chipmaker in the robotics/AI space with Tier-1 customers, trading at a distressed multiples likely due to a technical reporting error. This might be one of the rarest moments in history retail has discovered.
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更正某公司现金及库存数据。
@illyquid 更正* 手头现金 $9350 万 + 库存 $1100 万。
英文原文
@illyquid correction* $93.5m cash on hand + $11m inventory.
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作者驳斥对$VLN的误解，基于高毛利、大客户及低估值论证其做多逻辑。
我认为这很大程度上源于极度的认知缺失。欢迎人们核实所有信息，从财报数据到 Stonegate、Streetwise 和扫描器发布的 -8200 万美元技术故障。$VLN 并非随机的中国仙股炒作，其机器人垂直领域（主要收入来源）拥有 8000 万美元以上的远期营收，且毛利率类似 $NVDA 达 69-70%，同时持有 9500 万美元现金和 1100 万美元库存。它也并非无名之辈，三星、Mobileye、梅赛德斯、罗技、西门子等众多 OEM 及机器人+AI 公司均为 $VLN 的客户。$VLN 在 2.5 美元时交易估值约为 2.5 倍 EV/Revenue，而 Lattice、Macom 等类似公司交易估值为 14-18 倍。我只是在发布关于真实定价错误的观点以及我做多（Long）的原因。市场可以随意定价，我强烈建议大家自行研究。此外，最重要的是，这种信息发现有助于这家被压制的芯片制造商的员工在市场开始纠正关于库存消耗的错误信息时重新成长。
英文原文
I think a lot of it comes from an extreme lack of understanding. People are welcome to fact check everything from financials posted to the -$82m technical glitch that Stonegate, Streetwise, and scanners all posted. $VLN isn't some random pump and dump Chinese penny stock, they have $80m+ forward revenue off 69-70% $NVDA like margins for their robotics vertical (majority of revenue) and $95M cash + $11m Inventory. It's not unknown either, Samsung, Mobileye, Mercedes, Logitech, Siemens, and many other OEMs and robotics + AI companies are $VLN's customers. VLN trades at ~2.5 EV/revenue at $2.5 while Lattice, Macom, and similar companies they all trade at 14-18x. It's just me posting about the genuine mispricing and why I'm long. Markets can price it in however they want and I really encourage people to do the research themselves. Also most of all, this information discovery helps all the employees at this suppressed chipmaker start to grow again if markets start to make corrections based on misinformation about the inventory burn.
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分享$VLN财务数据，指出其机器人业务高增长且高毛利，估值具吸引力。
你可以自行进行公允价值计算并做出自己的决定。 我在之前的帖子中提供了关于 $VLN 的指标，但我会在那里重新发布它们： 一家无晶圆厂半导体(fabless semiconductor)公司，市销率(Sales)为2.1倍，市值(MC)为2.53亿美元，拥有： 9355万美元现金，1097万美元库存，零债务 综合毛利率为63%（GAAP）/ 66.7%（Non-GAAP）。 - CIB（企业互联网业务）毛利率：69.1% - 汽车业务毛利率：43.2% 3. 远期营收约8000万美元（同比增长20%以上） 4. 76.3%的营收来自机器人业务板块，其毛利率像 $NVDA 一样达到69%-70% 5. 机器人业务板块营收增长40.4%，而汽车业务萎缩37.9%。增长中的业务（机器人）盈利能力几乎是萎缩业务（汽车）的两倍。
英文原文
You can do fair value calculations yourself and make your own decision. I provided metrics in the earlier post about $VLN but I’ll just repost them there fabless semiconductor at 2.1x Sales, $253m MC with: $93.55M Cash, $10.97M in Inventory, Zero Debt Blended Margins of 63% (GAAP) / 66.7% (Non-GAAP). - CIB Gross Margin: 69.1% - Automotive Gross Margin: 43.2% 3. Fwd revenue ~$80M (20%+Y/Y growth) 4. 76.3% of their revenue coming from Robotics segments with $NVDA like 69%-70% gross margins 5. Revenue segments from robotics growing +40.4% while automotive are shrinking 37.9%. The growing part of the business (robotics) is almost two times as profitable as the shrinking part (automotive).
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指出$VLN因数据错误被算法压价，建议自行建模评估其真实价值。
这是算法压价，源于吸收了那笔8200万美元的笔误数据。否则 $VLN 现在可能已经是7美元的股票了。我建议你们自己建模测算一下：一家AI无晶圆厂半导体公司，拥有9300万美元现金、1100万美元库存、7000-8000万美元的年营收、60%以上的综合毛利率，在自动驾驶和机器人计算机视觉领域实现20-30%的同比增长，其估值应该是多少。
英文原文
It’s algorithmic price suppression due to ingesting data from the $82m typo. Otherwise $VLN might be a $7 stock by now. I’d suggest you try modeling yourself what a AI fabless semi would be valued at with $93m cash, $11m in inventory, $70-80m yearly revenue with 60%+ blended gross margins, 20-30% y/y growth, in automotive and robotics computer vision segments.
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澄清$VLN无息债，区分负债与债务概念。
@Dexsa18929428 没有债务是正确的。你误解了负债(Liabilities)与债务(Debt)的区别。 $VLN 没有债务，拥有 9350 万美元现金和 1100 万美元库存。债务是指需支付利息的款项。而负债是指运营支出(Opex)成本，或像行权价为 11.5 美元的认股权证(Warrants)以及以股票结算的员工奖金等。
英文原文
@Dexsa18929428 No debt is correct. You’re misunderstanding liabilities vs. debt. $VLN has no debt, $93.5M in cash, and $11m in inventory.Debt is interest bearing. Liabilities are opex costs or stuff like $11.5 strike warrants or employee bonuses that are settled in shares.
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作者建模 $VLN 目标价 7.3 美元，认为算法误做空是额外利好。
我的意思是，我建模得出的股价约为 7.30 美元（当前为 2.5 美元）。基于 2027 年远期数据，1.3 亿美元营收乘以 5 倍市销率(EV/Sales)，加上 9350 万美元净现金。我认为算法因混淆股票代码而大量做空 $VLN 只是锦上添花。话虽如此，我只是在分享信息发现，市场将决定如何对此进行定价。
英文原文
I mean I modeled for ~$7.30 (from $2.5 currently) share price. From forward 2027, $130M 5x EV/Sales + $93.5M net cash. I think algorithms piling in to short sell $VLN because they mixed up tickers is just a cherry on top. That being said I’m just posting info discovery, markets will decide how to price that in