个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2208 条 · 第 23 / 45 页
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反驳对Meta的看空观点，认为其高增长和资本支出回报强劲，看好股价上涨。
不明白为什么 FinX 对 $META 如此看空。他们给出的指引是 535 亿 -565 亿美元，高端意味着约 33.5% 的同比增长。这太疯狂了。人们曾引用 2026 年资本支出(Capex)指引 1150 亿 -1350 亿美元作为看空理由，而估算值约为 1100 亿美元。$META 即使在 1 万亿美元估值下，也再次像初创公司一样增长。很明显，无论资本支出花在哪里，都转化为了营收和未来自由现金流(FCF)的投资回报率，而非投入无底洞。我不惊讶于看到 Meta 在未来几周达到 800 美元以上。上次 BBB 财报（尽管同比增长 26% 并带来 100 多亿美元 FCF）纯粹是表面现象。而同样的 $META 叙事今天仍在被重复。当世界上有一半的人每天使用一家公司时，也许是时候重新思考你的头寸并做多(long)了。
英文原文
Not sure why FinX is so bearish on $META. They’re guiding $53.5B – $56.5B.High end is ~33.5% y/y growth. This is insane. People were citing 2026 Capex Guide: $115B – $135B as a bear case Where est. ~$110B $META is growing like a startup again even at a $1T valuation. It’s clear wherever capex spend is going, it’s delivered in revenue and future FCF ROI, not going into a black hole. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Meta at $800+ in the upcoming weeks. This was pure optics last time around with BBB earnings (even though they grew 26% Y/Y and delivered $10B+ FCF). And that same $META narrative is still being parroted today. When you have half of the world using a company daily, maybe it’s time to rethink your position and go long.
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看好AVAV，但政府停摆在即，建议暂缓建仓。
@__visionxry__ 是的，我非常看好 $AVAV。话虽如此，明天就要发生政府停摆(government shutdown)了，所以对于政府承包商来说，今天可能不是最佳的建仓时机。
英文原文
@__visionxry__ Yeah I really like $AVAV. That being said there’s a government shutdown tomorrow so maybe not the best timing today for government contractors
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认同$AXTI看涨观点，受光子学扩产及出口管制影响，InP价格预计上涨。
@DanilSer33 $AXTI 观点一致，光子学(Photonics)产能正在爬坡，7纳米磷化铟(InP)价格看涨。中国对日本的出口管制将收紧库存。我们将观察未来一年的演变情况。
英文原文
@DanilSer33 $AXTI same view, photonics ramping up, 7n InP prices are going higher. China export controls on Japan will tighten inventory. We’ll see how it plays out over the next year
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博主回应算法反应，发布$CPSH作为潜在收益证据。
@DoctorMeltzer 是的……我在看成交量，现在的算法总是会对我的帖子做出反应，我也没办法。不过不用着急，因为等待 $CPSH 的时间还挺长的，我只是想发这条作为证据，以防万一结果很好（而且是在一个下跌日）。
英文原文
@DoctorMeltzer Yeah… I’m looking at the volume, the algorithms always react to my posts nowadays can’t help it. There’s no rush though since it’s a decently long wait for $CPSH but I did want just want to post this as proof in case it ends up well (and on a red day)
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建仓$CPSH，看好其作为西方AlSiC龙头在AI散热瓶颈中的潜力及国防业务提供的安全垫。
我已建仓 $CPSH，将其作为美国铝硅碳化物(AlSiC)纯题材的瓶颈环节标的。 他们占据了近期半导体级 AlSiC 市场约 25% 的份额。 他们的客户包括： - 美国海军（战争） - 美国陆军（战争） - 美国能源部（能源/核能） - 美国太空军/ NASA（太空） - 洛克希德·马丁 ( $LMT ) - 雷神 ( $RTX ) - 诺斯罗普·格鲁曼 - 通用动力 - 美国海军在最新航母（如杰拉尔德·R·福特号和亚伯拉罕·林肯号）的弹道防护系统中使用 $CPSH 的产品。此外，通过洛克希德·马丁，丹麦海军等舰队也在使用。 - 美国陆军在 40mm 钨弹头和 UH-60 黑鹰直升机中使用 $CPSH 的产品。 - 美国能源部在通过铁路运输核燃料 (SNF) 和高放射性废物时，使用 $CPSH 的产品作为冲击限制器。 - 美国太空军/ NASA 在 GPS 卫星中使用 $CPSH 的产品，且国际空间站的许多电子系统中也有应用。（这还不包括火星车任务） - 洛克希德、雷神、诺斯罗普和通用动力使用 $CPSH 的产品用于导弹热屏蔽组件、雷达系统的 AlSiC 外壳以及热管理材料。 AlSiC（铝硅碳化物）是一种众所周知的材料复合材料，适用于从太空到国防等众多极端热条件应用。 但随着 $NVDA Rubin 架构在 2027-2028 年扩展至 2300-2500W，由于热翘曲问题，同样的材料可能会被 AI 领域采用。 我的观点是，这种原本用于高超音速导弹到火箭鼻锥等极端热变化处理的微小 TAM（总可服务市场）材料，很可能被用于 AI 部署。 这类似于磷化铟(InP)（电信领域的利基 TAM）随着光子学扩展成为瓶颈，或者东陶(Toto)的精细陶瓷对内存至关重要。 随着 AI 向 Rubin 世代芯片升级，AlSiC（尤其是后处理环节）可能成为一个潜在的瓶颈。 全球大部分 AlSiC 产能仍源自东亚（Denka, Sumitomo, BYD, JFC）。 但 CPS 目前主要的“美国/西方对冲”标的，且 CPSH 表示他们占据了近期可用 AlSiC 市场的大约 25%（CPS Technologies AGM 演示文稿）。 而供应链中这一部分的市值目前仅约 1 亿美元。 他们的资产负债表： 1270 万 -1380 万美元（调整后）现金。几乎零债务。库存约 540 万美元，负债：约 506 万美元（例如 353 万美元用于铝和碳化硅）。 同比营收 880 万美元，增长 +107.29%。 同比净利润增长 20.796 万美元 (+119.94%)。 健康的资产负债表加上美国政府战略利益 + 国防承包商，使得 $CPSH 作为领先的西方 AlSiC 供应链，在 1 亿美元甚至 2 亿美元市值时下行风险较低。 有新合同，例如去年 10 月从领先的半导体公司（可能是 ~Infineon）获得的 1550 万美元订单，增加了营收上行空间的可见性。他们正在扩大产能（由 10 月 25 日的融资支持），这暗示需求更高。 “我们相信我们是 AlSiC 设计和制造的全球领导者……我们的许多产品专为单一客户应用设计，使我们成为这些组件的唯一来源供应商。”（10-K 文件） TLDR：AI 的上行空间完全取决于科技巨头的材料转向。类似于东陶马桶制造商对内存的作用，但 AI 的契合度似乎很强。 但好处是，其现有的美国国防部承包商名单使公司下行风险较低。 这只是我想分享的个人论点。 但个人而言，我已建仓 $CPSH 作为 AlSiC 题材（以及做多美国供应链），因为它可能在 2027-2028 年 AI 扩展至 2000W+ 时，在解决热翘曲方面发挥重要作用。
英文原文
I've initiated positions in $CPSH as a US AlSiC pure play chokepoint. They represent ~25% of the near-term semi-grade AlSiC market. Their customers: - U.S. Navy (War) - U.S. Army (War) - U.S. Dept. of Energy (Energy / Nuclear) - U.S. Space Force / NASA (Space) - Lockheed Martin ( $LMT ) - Raytheon ( $RTX ) - Northrop Grumman - General Dynamics - The U.S. Navy uses $CPSH for ballistic protection systems of the newest carriers (like the USS Gerald R. Ford and USS Abraham Lincoln). As well as other fleets like the Danish Navy through Lockheed. - US Army uses $CPSH for 40mm Tungsten Warheads and UH-60 Black Hawk Helicopters. - The US Dpt of Energy uses $CPSH for impact limiters when transferring nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste via rail. - U.S. Space Force / NASA uses $CPSH for GPS satellites and it sits in many electronic systems in the International Space Station. (Also not including Mars Rover missions) - Lockheed, Raytheon, Northrop, and General Dynamics uses $CPSH for missile heat-shielding components. AlSiC housings for radar systems, and thermal management materials. AlSiC or (aluminum silicon carbide) is a well known material composite that handles extreme thermal conditions for many applications above from space to defense. But as architectures from $NVDA Rubin to scale up to 2300-2500W in 2027-2028, that same material may be used AI due to heat warpage. My thoughts were that the tiny TAM material used to handle extreme changes in heat from hypersonic missiles to rocket nose cones may likely be used for AI deployments. This is similar to how InP (niche TAM for Telecom) became a bottleneck as photonics scaled up. Or how Toto's fine ceramics for toilets were critical to memory. AlSiC (esp. post-processing) may become a potential chokepoint as AI ramps up to Rubin generation chips. Majority of the world's AlSiC production still originates in East Asia (Denka,Sumitomo, BYD, JFC). But CPS is currently the primary "US/Western hedge" and CPSH states they represent roughly 25% of the near-term available AlSiC market (CPS Technologies AGM Presentation). And that percentage of the supply chain is only worth ~$100 MC right now. Their balance sheet: $12.7M – $13.8M (pro-forma) cash. Almost 0 debt. Inventory ~5.4M, Liabilities: ~$5.06M (eg. $3.53M for aluminum and silicon carbide) Y/Y revenue is 8.8M, up +107.29%. Y/Y Net income is up 207.96K (+119.94%). Healthy balance sheet and US Government strategic interest + Defense Contractors gives $CPSH low downside risk at $100M or even at $200M as the leading Western AlSiC supply chain. There were new contracts eg. $15.5M order from the leading Semi likely ~Infineon last October, that more visibility into revenue upside. And they are expanding production (funded by their Oct 25th raise), which hints to higher demand. "We believe we are the world leader in the design and manufacture of AlSiC... Many of our products are designed specifically for a single customer application, making us the sole-source provider for those components." (10-K filings) TLDR: The AI upside depends entirely on a material pivot by big tech. Similar to the Toto toilet maker for memory type but the AI fit seems strong. But the benefit is that its existing list of US DoD contractors gives the company lower downside risk. This is just my own personal thesis I wanted to share. But personally I've taken positions in $CPSH as an AlSiC play (and long US supply chains) as it may play an important role with thermal warpage with AI in 2027-2028 as we expand to 2000W+.
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能源部辟谣致 $UAMY 板块大跌。
@platochi @MPMaterials 在 $UAMY 上稍微复制粘贴一下也没什么大不了的。但能源部明确指出一篇文章是虚假的，这种情况极其罕见。不仅如此，该板块还抛售了 10-20%。
英文原文
@platochi @MPMaterials Nothing wrong with a little bit of copy pasta with $UAMY. But it's extremely rare the Department of Energy calls an article explicitly false. And on top of that, the sector sells off 10-20%.
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UAMY否认路透社负面报道，股价跌17%后或现买入机会。
$UAMY 在路透社文章发布后下跌 17%。 但最新消息： “路透社文章不准确且具误导性”——UAMY 新闻稿。 “昨日向公众发布的路透社文章完全不准确、具有误导性，且与事实不符。” “美国锑业(UAMY)与美国政府机构保持着具有约束力的长期关系和合同安排，这些安排依然完全有效。” “能源部在文章发布后向路透社发表声明，称该文章‘虚假，且依赖那些要么被误导要么故意误导的匿名消息源’。” 我想知道市场是否认为，在股价下跌 17% 后，一份不准确的新闻稿构成了良好的买入机会。
英文原文
$UAMY is now down 17% after the Reuter's article. But this just in: "Inaccurate and Misleading Reuters Article" - Press Release by UAMY. "Yesterday's Reuters article that was released to the public, is completely inaccurate, misleading, and inconsistent with the facts" "U.S. Antimony maintains binding, long-term relationships and contractual arrangements with U.S. government agencies that remain fully in effect" "The Energy Department told Reuters in a statement after the story was published that the article was "false and relies on unnamed sources that are either misinformed or deliberately misleading" I wonder if markets think a inaccurate press release presents a good buying opportunity after a 17% drop.
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看好$VPG作为人形机器人核心供应商，认为2026年是拐点并建立多头仓位。
@StocksSoccer 我确实持有仓位，这是我之前对 $VPG 的看法： $VPG 是最不为人知的机器人供应链股票之一。 然而，它可能是对机器人人形机器人（Humanoid）放量最不对称的单一敞口，涉及： - $TSLA Optimus - Figure AI 因为这家市值5.8亿美元的公司制造： 估计占每个人形机器人物料清单(BOM)成本的3-9%。 如果埃隆在2027年实现德州超级工厂1000万台的生产目标，仅来自 $TSLA 的收入可能每年达到85亿美元（850美元中位数 * 1000万台）。 这是基于 $VPG CEO 关于每机器人价值捕获500-1200美元（850美元中位数）的言论，以及埃隆雄心勃勃的生产目标预测。 再次强调，这种算法极具投机性，但埃隆称规模化后每机器人成本为2-3万美元，你可以推导出 $VPG 从每个特斯拉机器人中估计获得~3%-9%+的BOM份额（如果这真的发生）。 如果你考虑到埃隆·马斯克说“特斯拉最终约80%的价值可能来自Optimus机器人”：对于这家在机器人供应链中至关重要的小公司来说，这看起来是机器人放量的极佳敞口。 我认为市场还忽略了将低端企业利润率纳入混合利润率估算：~40%。 然而，规模化的人形机器人特定毛利率预计为50%至55%（随着当前机器人放量，混合利润率可能会显著增加）。 他们的集成执行器/传感器模块（传感器+外壳+电子元件）很可能直接与人形机器人敞口挂钩（包含这些复杂组件的测量系统部门），CEO在财报电话会议上表示该部门实现“55%左右”的利润率。 在埃隆于2028年实现1000万台人形机器人预测的牛市情景下（单一客户，不包括Figure、OpenAI或其他潜在客户） 85亿美元收入的55%利润率： - 20倍市盈率(P/E)将是476亿美元 - 30倍市盈率 833亿美元 从5.8亿美元市值起步。 听起来很愚蠢，但当我看到 $SMCI 服务器机架拉涨前（3美元->113美元）或 $SNDK 的拉涨（30美元->453美元）时，这看起来是可能的。 再次强调，这是投机性的最佳可能情景，但经营杠杆才是真正的主线故事。 所以我认为，如果机器人放量的星星排列得当，这家5.8亿美元的小公司很可能被强烈重估。 现在看下行风险： - 另一个主要的人形机器人提供商可能是Figure，因为时间线匹配。但这尚未确认。（不认领时间线匹配研究的功劳，那是其他分析师做的）。这些数字是基于Citron等第三方估计的假设建模，如果有竞争对手，毛利率可能会压缩，或者收入放量可能不会如期进行。 - $TSLA 可能自2022年以来就在使用 $VPG 并开始放量。始终存在他们内部掌握专利技术/材料并抛弃客户的风险。这种牛市情景与特斯拉Optimus放量挂钩，始终存在被抛弃的风险，市场可能会对此定价。 - 再次强调，这是一个规模化人形机器人博弈。如果埃隆的预测过于雄心勃勃并面临延迟，这可能会像2025年一样停滞（尽管2025年仍有~85%的回报）。 但总之(TLDR)： 我的观点是，像Citron这样的机构分析师太早了。 然而，鉴于OpenAI上周进军机器人领域： 我认为2026年是机器人的拐点，$VPG 很可能捕获对特斯拉和人形机器人放量的最佳敞口。 尤其是当一家小公司很可能占据每个部署机器人的高比例BOM成本和高毛利率时： 我已经建立多头仓位来看看这会走向何方。当然请自行研究(DYOR)，我只是想分享我是如何建立对这个多头的信念的。
英文原文
@StocksSoccer I do own positions, this was my take on $VPG earlier https://t.co/OE9toKfSbh
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澄清$EWY仅含SK海力士和三星，原帖指其他受益者。
@WaterFish2000 $EWY 用于获取 SK 海力士(SK Hynix)和三星电子(Samsung Electronics)的敞口。这条帖子是为了其他受益者，特别是除了它们之外的公司。
英文原文
@WaterFish2000 $EWY is for SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics exposure. This post was for other beneficiaries that are specifically not them.
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认同对VPG及收入确认的观点。
@willkyi 说得很对，我对 $VPG 和收入确认也有类似的看法。
英文原文
@willkyi Spot on, I share similar thoughts with $VPG and revenue recognition.
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重申对$META的预判：高资本支出无碍其强劲盈利能力。
@ShortsHoward 是的，这真是一次惊人的预判。通常我不给出具体的时间框架，但我说过 $META 是财报预期（earnings optics），结果应验了。资本支出（Capex）虽然更高，但这没关系，因为他们正在疯狂印钞。
英文原文
@ShortsHoward yeah this was an incredible call. Normally I don't give specific timeframes but I said $META was earnings optics and it hit. Capex is higher but it doesn't matter because they're printing so much money.
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重申两周前对$META的看涨观点，认为资本支出被夸大且盈利强劲。
顺便提一下，这个在 $625 价位对 $META 的看涨观点仅仅是两周前提出的。🎯 希望未来几周股价能进一步上涨，资本支出(capex)支出被夸大了，因为他们正在疯狂赚钱并以惊人的速度增长。
英文原文
Btw this $META call at $625 was only 2 weeks ago. 🎯 Hope it goes up even more over the next few weeks, capex spend was overblown since they’re printing money and growing at astounding rates. https://t.co/ElqIsW49al
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LEU作为美国唯一HALEU供应商，受政策利好但股价反应平淡。
哎呀 https://t.co/fMHZt9xncY ♻️ $LEU 是一家市值 58.3 亿美元的公司。 Centrus 也是最初瓶颈名单上的另一家公司。 他们是美国目前唯一能够将铀浓缩为用于小型模块化反应堆(SMR)核电站的高丰度低浓铀(HALEU)的公司。 美国能源部(DOE)表示，一个园区将从浓缩到回收吸引“500 亿美元的投资”。 消息公布后股价仅上涨 2%，这令人惊讶。 “特朗普政府已将核能作为其国家能源政策的基石”
英文原文
Whoops https://t.co/fMHZt9xncY
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ASPI具投机性，LEU为HALEU唯一生产商，两者均受益于供应链投资。
正如其他人所说，$ASPI 非常具有投机性，而 $LEU 是目前唯一能够生产高丰度低浓缩铀(HALEU)的公司。话虽如此，我相信它们都是美国能源部(DOE)和私人投资者在这条供应链投资中的潜在受益者，尤其是考虑到特朗普家族通过其子公司参与了该量子富集生产方法。
英文原文
As the others said $ASPI is very speculative and $LEU is the only one that can produce HALEU today. That being said I’m sure they’re a potential beneficiary of this supply chain investment by DOE and private investors, esp. since Trump family is involved with that quantum enrichment production method in their subsidiary
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指出DJT是TAE合并隐形赢家，并计划研究BWXT。
@NgineTrades 是的，还有其他受益者。我不得不承认，$DJT 可能是 TAE 合并后的隐形赢家之一。我会去研究一下 $BWXT。
英文原文
@NgineTrades Yeah there are other beneficiaries out there too. I can’t believe I have to say this but $DJT is probably one of silent winners after the TAE merger. I’ll take a look at $BWXT
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看好LEU，因其是HALEU唯一生产商且具瓶颈优势。
@stocktalkweekly 哇，太棒了！我同意，我最喜欢的是 $LEU，因为他们是默认的最佳选择（作为目前唯一能生产高丰度低浓缩铀(HALEU)的公司，而这是一个瓶颈环节）。
英文原文
@stocktalkweekly Wow nice! I agree, my favorite is $LEU since they’re the best one by default (as the only one that can currently produce HALEU, which is a bottleneck)
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LEU作为美国唯一HALEU供应商，受核能政策利好但股价反应平淡。
♻️ $LEU 是一家市值 58.3 亿美元的公司。 Centrus 是原始瓶颈清单上的另一家公司。 他们是目前美国唯一一家能够将铀浓缩为用于小型模块化反应堆(SMR)核电站的高丰度低浓铀(HALEU)的公司。 能源部(DOE)表示，一个园区将从浓缩到回收吸引“500 亿美元的投资”。 消息公布后股价仅上涨 2%，这令人惊讶。 “特朗普政府已将核能作为其国家能源政策的基石”
英文原文
♻️ $LEU is a $5.83B MC company. And Centrus was the another company on the original bottleneck list. They’re the only company in the US that can currently enrich uranium into HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium) for SMR nuclear power plants. DOE said one campus would attract “50 Billion in investments” from enrichment to recycling. It’s only up 2% on the news, which was surprising. “The Trump administration has made nuclear power a cornerstone of its national energy policy”
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IBKR因国际半导体投资受益，HOOD应优先拓展台日市场。
@hippygecko 有趣的是，$IBKR 是国际散户投资存储/半导体超级周期的二阶受益者。$HOOD 无法接入这类台湾或日本股票。我确信 @vladtenev 应该将此作为他的第一优先级。https://t.co/ne4ZdKaZYy
英文原文
@hippygecko It’s interesting that $IBKR is second order beneficiary of US retail investing internationally in the memory/semi supercycles. $HOOD doesn’t have access to these types of TW or JP stocks. Pretty sure @vladtenev should make this his #1 priority. https://t.co/ne4ZdKaZYy
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作者分享CRWV交易经历，指出其巨额债务偿付压力。
@Veganhippo21 我去年在 $34 买入 $CRWV，今年在 $70 做了波段交易。话虽如此，“你酸吗”这种论调无助于解决 Coreweave 每年 $12.5 亿+ 债务偿付的问题。 https://t.co/DrP4LIKpYm
英文原文
@Veganhippo21 I was buying $CRWV at $34 last year, and I swing traded it at $70 this year. That being said, "u mad" doesn't help Coreweave's issue with $1.25B+ yearly debt payments. https://t.co/DrP4LIKpYm
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对比美光与Nayna的风险收益，因市值差异调整持仓权重。
@ShortsHoward 风险特征和上行空间。鉴于地缘政治因素，$MU 的波动性低于 $NAYA，因此我对两者的投资组合权重配置不同。市值越小（例如 $NAYA 为 290 亿美元 vs $MU 为 4610 亿美元），通常上行空间越大。
英文原文
@ShortsHoward Both risk profile and upside. $MU is less volatile than Nanyna just given geopolitics so I do portfolio weightings differently. The smaller the MC (eg. $29B Nayna vs $461B Micron), the higher upside there is typically .
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内存涨价致MU等前向市盈率降低，厂商竞相提价。
取决于具体日期。根据近期涨价的估算预测，如果计入25日的NAND（闪存）价格涨幅，$MU 的前向市盈率（Forward P/E）可能在8.4-8.7左右。南亚科（Nanya）可能在9.5左右，但其增长速度更快。再次强调，这些公司不断上调内存价格，因此即使股价上涨，前向市盈率也会降低。之前的预测也难以跟上变化。目前它们只是在比拼谁涨价幅度更大。
英文原文
Depends on the day. Using est. projections from recent price hikes, $MU is probably sitting around 8.4-8.7-ish forward p/e if you account for NAND price hikes on the 25th. Nanya is maybe 9.5-ish but it's growing a lot faster. Again these companies keep raising memory prices, so forward p/e gets lower even as the stock prices increases. And previous projections can't keep up as well. They're just one-upping each other on who can hike prices the most at this point.
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南亚科因巨头退出成熟存储市场成唯一供应商，享稀缺溢价，股价低估。
南亚科(TPE: 2408)是我在存储领域的多头持仓之一，与$MU、SK海力士和三星并列。 但理由不同。 你可能在想，这种抛物线趋势（1年+972%）是否会停止？可能不会。 而且它每天还在上涨7%。 以下是简单的总结： 其远期市盈率仅为~13.62（随着涨价，现在可能更低）。 营收同比增长+357.7%/净利润同比增长+804.27%，其利润天文数字般巨大。 类似于美光上个月57.56%+的增速，且自从我首次提及以来已翻倍有余： 股价简直跟不上。 当巨头（三星、SK海力士和$MU）争夺高端AI市场时，南亚科专注于PC、计算机电子和工业领域的成熟及特种DRAM产品。（尽管他们也在做1b节点的先进芯片）。 存储公司留下了巨大的空白，而南亚科填补了它： 美光 - 完全退出消费级产品线 SK海力士 - 几乎完全专注于HBM4和服务器级DRAM。 三星 - 将30-40%的成熟产线重新分配给先进AI存储。 南亚科 - 最后的坚守者 需求保持稳定，但成熟DRAM供应突然断崖式下跌。且它仍被广泛使用于： - 消费级PC和笔记本电脑：2015至2023年间生产的数百万台电脑使用DDR4 - 智能手机：大多数中端和入门级智能手机使用LPDDR4 - 家庭电子产品：智能电视、游戏机（如旧款Nintendo Switch或PS4）使用这些。 基本上，它们仍需生产这些，但南亚科手握所有牌。 买家为旧内存支付“稀缺溢价”，因为他们无处可买，且在一个无聊的市场中看到了供应冲击。 南亚科本质上成了沙漠中卖水的人。他们可以不断抬高水的价格。 我做多这家在沙漠中卖水的公司。
英文原文
Nanyna (TPE: 2408) is one of my longs alongside $MU, SK Hynix, and Samsung for memory. But for a different reason. You might be thinking if this parabolic trend (+972% 1Y). is going to stop? Probably not. And it just keeps going up 7% a day. Here's a simple TLDR why: The forward P/E is only ~13.62 (likely lower now with price hikes). With +357.7% Revenue Growth/+804.27% Net Income Growth Y/Y, their profits are astronomical. Similar to Micron and their 57.56%+ last month, and more than doubling since I first mentioned it: The stock price literally can't keep up. While the giants (Samsung, SK Hynix, and $MU) are fighting over the high-end AI market, Nanya specialized in the legacy and specialty DRAM products from PCs, computer electronics, and industrial. (They are doing advanced chips though with 1b Nodes though). And the memory companies left a massive void Nanya filled: Micron - Total Exit from Consumer Lines SK Hynix - Focusing almost entirely on HBM4 and server-grade DRAM. Samsung - Reallocating 30–40% of legacy lines to advanced AI memory. Nanya - Last man standing Demand stayed steady but legacy DRAM supply suddenly fell off a cliff. And it's still widely used from: - Consumer PCs and Laptops: Millions of computers built between 2015 and 2023 use DDR4 - Smartphones: Most mid-range and budget smartphones use LPDDR4 - Home Electronics: Smart TVs, gaming consoles (like the older Nintendo Switch or PS4) use these. Basically, they still need to make these, but Nayna has all the cards. Buyers are paying a "scarcity premium" for older memory because they can't find it anywhere else and seeing a supply shock in a boring market. Nanya essentially became the guy selling water in a desert. And they can keep jacking up the price of water. I'm long on the cat sounding company selling water in the desert.
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看空CRWV因债务与折旧风险，建议多NBIS/CIFR空CRWV对冲。
$CRWV 可能是我能想到的唯一一家市值超 500 亿美元且很可能破产的公司。至少 $ORCL 拥有盈利的核心业务，并持有大量资产，例如 15% 的 TikTok 股份。 对我来说，做空 Coreweave 的理由很明确，纯粹因为其大部分收入将用于支付债务利息。再加上 GPU 折旧，情况更是雪上加霜。 但进行对冲是个好主意。我个人会做多 $NBIS、$CIFR，同时做空 $CRWV，这对长期投资来说似乎不错。Nvidia 目前仍在维持它们的生存。
英文原文
$CRWV is probably the only $50B+ company I can think of that is likely going to go bankrupt. At least $ORCL has a profitable core business and owns tons of assets like 15% of Tiktok. Coreweave is a clear short to me purely because a large part of their revenue will be used to pay off debt interest. Then you compound that with GPU depreciation. But it's a good idea to hedge. I would personally long $NBIS, $CIFR short $CRWV, seems decent for long term. Nvidia is keeping them alive for now.
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看好NBIS和CIFR，指出Coreweave高息债务侵蚀现金流。
我认为 $NBIS 目前极具吸引力。$CIFR（指其托管业务而非新云业务）等特定个股也是如此。相比之下，$CRWV 的说服力则稍逊一筹。 Nebius 的商业模式本质上是将五家年同比增长(Y/Y)达100%的公司合并而成。（包括与 $UBER 合作的自动驾驶公司 Avride、估值约150亿美元的 Clickhouse、AI 标注公司 Toloka 以及教育科技公司）。此外，还包括其核心业务部门，该部门已实现约70亿美元的年度经常性收入(ARR)。 因此，尽管我们需要通过实际产生的自由现金流(FCF)来仔细审视这些乐观的收入数据，但公司方面表示长期 EBIT 利润率有望达到20%~30%。 最关键的差异在于，Coreweave 超过12亿美元的债务利息正在侵蚀其自由现金流，而其他公司则获得了2~3%的低利率融资。
英文原文
저는 $NBIS 가 현재 매우 매력적이라고 생각합니다. $CIFR(네오클라우드가 아닌 코로케이션 부문) 같은 특정 종목들도 마찬가지입니다. 반면 $CRWV 는 그만큼 설득력이 있지는 않네요. 네비우스(Nebius)의 비즈니스 모델은 기본적으로 전년 대비(Y/Y) 100%씩 성장하는 5개의 회사가 하나로 합쳐진 형태입니다. ($UBER와 협력하는 자율주행 Avride, 약 150억 달러의 가치로 평가받는 Clickhouse, Toloka(AI 라벨링), 그리고 에듀테크). 여기에 약 70억 달러의 ARR(연간 반복 매출)을 기록한 주력 사업 부문이 포함됩니다. 따라서 이러한 낙관적인 매출 수치들은 실제 창출되는 FCF(잉여현금흐름)를 통해 면밀히 살펴봐야 하겠지만, 사측에서는 장기적으로 20%~30%의 EBIT 마진을 제시하고 있습니다. 가장 중요한 차이점은 코어위브(Coreweave)의 경우 12억 달러 이상의 부채 이자가 FCF를 잠식하고 있는 반면, 다른 기업들은 2~3% 수준의 저금리를 확보했다는 점입니다.
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建议押注英伟达而非高负债的Coreweave
考虑因为 $NVDA 的交易而买入 $CRWV 吗？ 你可以这样思考： 赌场给你更多资金，因此你可以利用抵押品承担更多债务去赌博。 然后所有额外的钱都流回了赌场（即 $NVDA）。 这并不意味着 Coreweave 是一个好的做多标的。 但这确实让英伟达成为了一个。 押注庄家，而不是那个背负 147 亿美元+债务且年利息支付超过 12 亿美元的人。
英文原文
Thinking about buying $CRWV on the $NVDA deal? Here's the way to think about it: A casino gives you more money, so you could take on more debt with collateral to gamble. Then all the extra money goes back to the Casino (aka. $NVDA). That doesn't make Coreweave a good long. But it does make Nvidia one. Bet on the house, not the one with $14.7B+ in debt with $1.2B+ in yearly interest payments.
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分析$BAER高负债导致自由现金流被锁定用于偿债。
我研究了 $BAER。正如你提到的，需要注意的有：2.029亿美元+的债务，4.003亿美元+的优先股负债（需计提利息），以及新的3.315亿美元融资方案。此外，你还需要在模型中计入每年约2400万美元+的债务利息，这会大幅削减自由现金流(FCF)。因此，保守估计自由现金流约为1300万-1900万美元。鉴于有2亿美元+的高级债务和4亿美元+的优先股，这1900万美元的自由现金流基本被“锁定”，用于偿还债务。话虽如此，这些只是我复核过的资产负债表计算，我尚未深入研究公司的业务（如果其盈利能力足够强，或许能随时间推移抵消负债影响）。
英文原文
I looked into $BAER. Something to look out for as you mentioned is that there's $202.9M+ debt, and $400.3 Million + preferred stock liabilities (which accrues interest), and that new $331.5 Million financing package. Then you need to model in that there's ~$24M+ debt interest a year, which does cut into any FCF a ton. So conservative FCF would be ~$13-19M or so, that ~$200M+ in senior debt and $400M+ in preferreds, that $19M in FCF is basically "trapped" and is being used to pay off debt. That being said these are just the balance sheet calculations that I double checked, I haven't looked much into what the company is doing (maybe it would overshadow liabilities over time if they're that profitable )
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博主表示重仓英特尔和Meta，关注后续表现。
@Neomeldir 不错！我个人重仓了 $INTC 和 $META，好奇看看这两只股票在接下来的几周表现如何。
英文原文
@Neomeldir Nice! I personally loaded up on $INTC and $META, curious to see how those two do in the upcoming weeks.
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高股息股暴跌警示：安全感源于成长股而非停滞的股息。
$UNH 刚刚暴跌 -19.48% 至 $283.31。股息投资者(Dividend investors)和巴菲特跟单者(Buffet copytraders)今年过得并不轻松。来自 $PYPL 的跌幅为 -37.8%（1年），$FISV 跌幅为 -72%（1年）。这是一个残酷的警钟：通过追逐 $UNH 约 2.85% 的“股息”或进行价值投资，单日 20% 的下跌（如今天）实际上抹去了 6.6 年的等待。安全感并非来自停滞和股息，而是来自像 $NVDA、$META 或 $TSM 这样最明显的成长型公司。
英文原文
$UNH has just crashed -19.48% to $283.31. Dividend investors and Buffet copytraders are not having a fun time this year. Others from $PYPL are down -37.8% 1Y with $FISV down -72% 1Y. This is a brutal wake-up call that by chasing a ~2.85% "dividends" with UNH or value investing, a single-day drop of 20% (like today) effectively wipes 6.6 years of waiting. Safety isn't found in stagnation and dividends. It's found in the most obvious growth companies like $NVDA, $META, or $TSM.
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看好美光因关税豁免和补贴优势，优于面临地缘压力的韩系厂商。
$MU 看起来是个很棒的做多标的！话虽如此，三星电子和 SK 海力士仍然是我最喜欢的持仓。看起来美国基本上是在利用强烈的关税威胁，迫使三星和 SK 海力士将下一代晶圆厂迁至美国本土（正如得克萨斯州 370 亿美元的三星工厂和印第安纳州 39 亿美元的 SK 海力士工厂所示）。但最近的新闻看起来像是关税逆风下的“TACO”局面（即关税行动取消操作）。相比之下，$MU 享有关税豁免 + 获得《芯片法案》补贴，且不会每天面临来自特朗普的地缘政治威胁。
英文原文
$MU looks like a great long! This being said Samsung Electronics and Sk Hynix are still two of my favorite positions. It looks like the US is essentially using strong tariff threats to force Samsung and SK Hynix to move their next generation of fabs to US soil (as seen with $37B Samsung plant in Texas and SK Hynix’s $3.9B Indiana). But recent news does look like a TACO situation with tariff headwinds. Whereas $MU is tariff-exempt + gets CHIPS Act subsidies, and doesn't have constant geopolitical threats from Trump every day.
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美光凭借美国制造护城河及存储超级周期，估值优于同业。
“美国制造”是美光($MU)和英特尔($INTC)拥有的最强大护城河(Moat)。 以下是美光的最新动态： 继25日NAND和DRAM涨价预期上调后： $MU的前向市盈率(Forward P/E)可能在~8.2-8.5倍左右，同时毛利率(Gross Margins)维持在75-77%。 随后是特朗普和卢特尼克的新评论： - “任何想建设存储芯片的企业只有两个选择：要么支付100%的关税，要么在美国本土建厂”——卢特尼克（在美光存储芯片工厂，1月17日） - “特朗普将对韩国进口商品关税提高至25%”——（1月27日） 这是一个非常有趣的动态，因为美光作为美国的冠军企业，仍能通过海外扩张获得税收优惠。而三星或SK海力士的类似扩张则被视为面临关税风险。 此外，今天的新消息显示美光正在新加坡以240亿美元的投资加速NAND生产。 所以大家都在问，为什么$MU的估值高于其他存储芯片制造商？ 我们正亲眼目睹美国“美国制造”护城河与“存储超级周期(Memory Supercycle)”中无休止的涨价改善利润表共同发挥作用。 白宫正在尽其所能确保其本土领导者取得成功。
英文原文
"Made in America" is the greatest moat $MU and $INTC have. Here's the recent developments with Micron: From NAND + DRAM hike est. on the 25th: $MU forward P/E would likely be ~8.2-8.5 with gross margins sitting at 75-77%. This is followed by new comments from Trump and Lutnick: - “Everyone who wants to build memory has two choices: They can pay a 100 per cent tariff, or they can build in America" - Lutnick (Micron Technology memory chip plant, Jan 17) - "Trump raises US tariffs on South Korea imports to 25%" - (Jan 27th) It's a fascinating dynamic as Micron still gets tax benefits through overseas expansion as America's champion. Whereas similar expansions by Samsung or SK Hynix are viewed through the lens of tariff risk. This is coupled with new news today that Micron was ramping up NAND production in Singapore with $24B. So everyone was wondering, why $MU was valued higher than other memory makers? We're seeing the the USA "Made in America" moat live in action together with "The Memory Supercycle" of endless price hikes improving bottom lines. The White House is doing everything it can to make its domestic leaders succeed.
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推荐关键材料ETF $REMX，认为其板块敞口良好。
@estcstfreedom $REXM 是一个不错的关键材料 ETF。我还没有仔细查看上述个股的持仓权重，但我相信它对板块的敞口（Exposure）非常好。
英文原文
@estcstfreedom $REMX is a good critical materials ETF. I haven’t looked at the portfolio weightings of the names above but I’m sure it’s great exposures to the sector
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稀土板块受消息刺激盘前大涨后回落，疑似利好出尽。
@u_wol_cos 受 $USAR 消息影响，$MP、$LPTH、$UAMY、$NB 等板块在盘前大幅上涨，但随后全线下跌 8-15% 以上。看来这是针对隔夜或盘前买入的散户的“利好出尽”（Sell the news）事件？不太确定。https://t.co/Pi2mAQ6zjg
英文原文
@u_wol_cos The sector from $MP, $LPTH, $UAMY, $NB and others rose a ton premarket on the $USAR news and now they're all down 8-15%+. Guess this is a sell the news event for retail who bought in overnight/premarket? Not sure. https://t.co/Pi2mAQ6zjg
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分析 $USAR 盘前暴涨、稀释风险及 $26 入场点。
我还没来得及完全理清交易结构，当时我在看 $USAR 的盘前走势，记得它一度涨到了 +55%？ 我注意到以 $21.5 的行权价存在大量稀释，不过我不担心美国政府（持股成本约 $17.17），因为他们不会卖出。现在 $26 的入场点看起来好多了！
英文原文
I didn't have time through the deal structure fully yet, I was watching $USAR pre-market and I think it hit +55% at one point? I did see that there was a lot of dilution with a strike at $21.5, not worried about US Gov at ~$17.17 since they're not selling. Entry point at $26 looks a lot better now though!
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关注$AREC作为关键矿物精炼商在多主题下的投资价值。
@ThematicTrader $AREC 看起来非常有意思，正如你所说，他们从钕(neodymium)、镓(gallium)、锗(germanium)和锂(lithium)中捕获价值。作为一家关键矿物精炼商，它是多个主题的净受益者，我需要仔细研究一下！
英文原文
@ThematicTrader $AREC seems very interesting since they capture value from neodymium, gallium, germanium, and lithium as you mentioned. It's a net beneficiary of multiple themes as a critical mineral refiner, I need to take a closer look!
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质疑IONQ被收购价格，建议SKYT股东避免持有。
@wallstengine 作为 $SKYT 的股东，我不希望以 $20 的价格持有 $IONQ。真不敢相信他们要被收购了。
英文原文
@wallstengine I would not want to hold $20 in $IONQ as a $SKYT shareholder. Can't believe they're getting bought
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作者认为$BBW五年回报超英伟达，讽刺热门赛道拥挤。
人们做多 $MU / $SNDK 押注“存储超级周期(Memory Supercycle)”。 或者因为需求做多“铜(Copper)”。 但显而易见的交易就在你面前吗？ $BBW - Build a Bear（泰迪熊工厂）。 5年回报率： 泰迪熊：1301.55% 英伟达(Nvidia)：+1,258.68% 当你在 GPU/存储/铜供应链中为残羹冷炙争斗时，你本可以像我一样买一只泰迪熊。
英文原文
People are long $MU / $SNDK for "The Memory Supercycle". Or "Copper" because of demand. But is obvious trade in front of you? $BBW - Build a Bear. 5y Return: Teddy Bear: 1301.55% Nvidia: +1,258.68% While you're fighting for crumbs in the GPU/Memory/Copper supply chains, you could have just bought a Teddy Bear like I did.
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美光涨价打破传统模型，估值难追股价。
@sarfatti_IR 是的，这对 $MU 来说太惊人了，而且所有这些涨价都打破了传统建模。我又做了一些计算，前瞻市盈率(Forward P/E)可能会压缩至约 8.2-8.5 倍，对应 77.2% 的毛利率。估值无法跟上股价的步伐。
英文原文
@sarfatti_IR Yeah this is incredible for $MU and all these price hikes break traditional modeling. I did some calculations again and forward p/e might compress to ~8.2-8.5 of 77.2% gross margins The valuation can’t keep up with the stock price
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美光涨价利好，前瞻PE降至8.9倍，股价滞后于基本面改善。
@TechEquityEng 随着这一疯狂的涨价，一些粗略估算(quick estimates)可能将 $MU 的前瞻市盈率(forward p/e)从之前的预期拉回到约 8.9 倍。 美光(Micron)的基本面每天都在变得更便宜，而股价却无法跟上。
英文原文
@TechEquityEng With this insane price hike, some napkin math calculations might bring $MU back to forward p/e ~8.9 from previous expectations. Micron fundamentally keeps getting cheaper every day and stock price can’t keep up.
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指出针对WOLF的可转债套利策略。
@foogleman1234 那可能是针对 $WOLF 的可转债套利(convertible note arbitrage)。
英文原文
@foogleman1234 That's probably convertible note arbitrage with $WOLF
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WOLF虽具300mm SiC垄断优势，但高债与稀释使其成财务陷阱。
$WOLF（市值4.64亿美元）是“看空-看多”悖论的典型代表。 Wolfspeed凭借碳化硅(SiC)晶圆被视为AI领域的圣杯。 这家晶圆代工厂上周刚刚制造出全球首片300mm单晶SiC晶圆。 $NVDA的Rubin架构及后续架构很可能需要300mm SiC中介层(interposers)，而Wolfspeed是目前全球唯一能实现这一点的公司。 他们获得了7.5亿美元以上的《芯片法案》拨款，对美国国家安全至关重要。 我将此列为一个瓶颈环节，但关键在于： 这是一个负企业价值(EV)陷阱： - 9.26亿美元现金，21亿美元债务，4.65亿美元市值 - EV约为16亿美元。 此外还有： -> 可转换票据#1 约3.314亿美元。基于10亿美元隐含股权价值转换为新股。 -> 瑞萨(Renesas)可转换票据#2 约2.04亿美元（占总股份的13.6%） 2025年12月15日，Wolfspeed提交招股书，注册1130万股供“出售股东”使用。 这些是破产期间以股权代替现金的前债权人。 所以... Wolfspeed是2027年SiC中介层论点的核心，因为它们在美国制造且拥有巨大护城河。 但在他们能实现大规模量产并掩盖可转换债券、债务和稀释影响之前，这看起来像个陷阱。 从纸面上看，由于拥有全球首片300mm SiC晶圆且作为美国公司具有垄断地位，这是AI愿景股中的圣杯。 但财务上这是一颗地雷。 披露：我未持有任何头寸，只是想分享我的研究结果。
英文原文
$WOLF ($464M) is the paradigm of the "Bear-Bull" Paradox. Wolfspeed is the holy grail of AI with SiC wafers. And this foundry just made the world’s first 300mm single-crystal SiC wafer last week. $NVDA Rubin + architectures likely need 300mm SiC interposers and Wolfspeed is the only company in the world currently that can do it. They're critical to US national security with $750M+ in chips act grants. I listed this as a bottleneck but here's the catch: This is a negative EV trap: - $926M cash, $2.1B debt, $465m MC Ev would be roughly ~$1.6B. Then you have -> Convertible Notes #1 ~$331.4 Million. Convertible into New Common Stock based on an implied equity value of $1.0 Billion. -> Renesas Convertible Notes #2 ~ $204 Million. (13.6% of the total shares) December 15, 2025, Wolfspeed filed a prospectus to register 11.3 million shares for "selling stockholders" These are the former creditors who took equity instead of cash during the bankruptcy. So... Wolfspeed is central to the SiC Interposer thesis for 2027 as they're made in America and are have a massive moat. But this just looks like a trap right unless they can get this to massive scale and overshadow any convertibles, debt, and dilution. This is on paper the holy grail of AI moonshots since they have the world's first 300mm SiC wafer and are a monopoly in as a US company. But financially this is a landmine. Disclosure: I own no positions, just wanted to post my findings.
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OPTT虽受Andruil概念炒作波动大，但高负债下稀释风险极高。
关于 $OPTT，我曾向他人评论称，由于 Andruil 相关的合同与合作伙伴关系炒作，该股极易出现大幅波动（因此有利可图）。但他们仅有 1100 万美元现金，却背负 1000 万美元债务和 1700 万美元负债，因此一旦有散户兴趣，稀释股本的可能性极高。除非我遗漏了某些超额收益(alpha)信息，否则资本稀释似乎迫在眉睫。
英文原文
For $OPTT, I made this comment to someone else where it's really susceptible to large movements (so profitable), bc there's hype on contracts like partnerships feeding into Andruil. But they have $11m cash and $10m debt with $17m liabilities so it seems incredibly likely they’ll dilute if there's any retail interest. Feels like capital dilution is imminent unless there's any alpha i missed
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看好AEHR作为HBM4等关键技术的收费亭角色。
@PhotonCap 同意！我特别喜欢 $AEHR，尤其是因为它是许多领域（如 HBM4、碳化硅(SiC)晶圆、光子学等）的“收费亭”。
英文原文
@PhotonCap Agreed! I really like $AEHR especially, since they're a toll booth for a lot of things like hbm4, SiC wafers, photonics, etc
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WLAC IPO延期至2026年中，但获1.27亿合同显利好。
@Sumojoe118 我看好 $WLAC，但他们从原定的2025年第四季度IPO严重延期，推迟到了2026年6月30日。因此，由于目前处于沉寂期，我此前并未过多评论，但最近获得的1.27亿美元FluidStack合同确实非常看涨。
英文原文
@Sumojoe118 I liked $WLAC, but they got heavily delayed from their Q4 2025 IPO, and extended it to June 30, 2026. So haven't really commented since it's in a lull state, but the $127m fluidstack contract recently is really bullish.
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长期看好RKLB，但因短期高估暂不纳入短中期名单。
@AstronautCoin 长期来看，$RKLB 可能是我最看多的股票。不过短期来看它被严重高估。所以我暂时将其排除在外。这更像是一份我的短中期观察名单。
英文原文
@AstronautCoin Long term, $RKLB is probably my most bullish stock. Short term though it's pretty overvalued. So I just leave them out. This is more like a short-med term list for me.
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提及无人机及战争板块个股机会，强调研究充分后再评论。
没问题！像 $RCAT、$PDYN 这样的无人机板块股票也有很多，从主题上看应该也是看涨的。只是需要关注的股票太多了，如果我对某只股票的研究还不够深入，我尽量不去评论。$OSS 未来应该会很有趣，因为有战争板块的顺风因素。
英文原文
No problem! There's a lot of drone sector stocks like $RCAT, $PDYN too that should be thematically bullish. There's just too many stocks to look at and I try not to comment if I didn't do enough research into them yet. $OSS should be interesting going forward with War sector tailwinds
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看好MRAM高上行空间，修正VELO资产负债表数据但仍认为其一般。
$MRAM 很有意思。资产负债表良好，且拥有极高的上行垂直空间。 另外需要纠正一下上面关于 $VELO 的说法，他们手头约有 4990 万美元现金 - 1100 万美元（第四季度支出），所以现在可能持有 3800 万美元，负债 2300 万美元 | 总负债 6400 万美元，看起来稍好一些。但资产负债表仍然不是最好的。
英文原文
$MRAM is interesting. Good balance sheet, and very high upside vertical. Also need to make a correction to $VELO above, they have around $49.9M in cash -$11m Q4, so they're probably sitting on $38m now with $23m debt | $64m in liabilities, which looks slightly better. But still not the best balance sheet.
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分析SHMD、COPX及UAMY的投资逻辑与潜力
我之前一直在研究 $SHMD，因为其客户据报包括 $AVGO。但我至今仍未理清做多该股的逻辑。 我将 $COPX 归类为铜板块。 $UAMY 是做多锑的绝佳标的，它是美国少数玩家之一。其 2.45 亿美元的独家供应合同对于战略储备而言规模巨大。
英文原文
I've been looking into $SHMD awhile back since one of their customers was reportedly $AVGO. But still can't wrap my head around taking a long position yet. I put $COPX up there as Copper. $UAMY is an amazing long for antimony one of the only US players. $245m sole source contract is huge too for stockpiles.
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Oracle因过度依赖OpenAI面临巨大交易对手风险，长期前景堪忧。
尽管$ORCL股价在300多美元时，我也曾表达过类似观点，当时他们预测资本支出(Capex)将在一年内从250亿美元激增至500亿美元以上。这是为了履行5000多亿美元的积压订单。但当客户是OpenAI（例如3000亿美元的Stargate项目）时，这些积压订单的意义就变了。他们借入巨额资金只为单一客户建设，而鉴于OpenAI的其他合同义务，这构成了最明显且极端的交易对手风险。加上在Gemini面前失去收入份额，他们最终违约的可能性越来越大。我高度怀疑Sam Altman能否维持1万亿美元以上的合同义务，即使进行IPO（他们前几天刚与Cerebras签署了另一项100多亿美元的合同）+ 他们只是在传播风险传染，试图在资金耗尽时获得美国政府的兜底。这种对可疑交易对手的债务扩张掩盖了其其他业务板块，我认为市场上有很多更好的做多标的，而不是去赌OpenAI。当然这只是我的观点，我们可能会看到因Softbank等近期对OpenAI的注资而带来的Oracle短期反弹，但我不认为这种势头能持续多年。
英文原文
I've been saying this about $ORCL in the 300's though too when they projected $25B capex to $50B+ in just 1 year time. This is to fulfill $500B+ in backlog. But that backlog doesn't matter when it's OpenAI (eg. $300B Stargate). They're borrowing so much to build out on a sole customer, which happens to be the most obvious + extreme counterparty risk given OpenAI's other contractual obligations. When you compound that with losing revenue share to Gemini, it looks increasingly likely they'll default at some point. I have high doubts Sam will find a way to sustain $1T+ in contractual obligations, even with an IPO (they just signed another $10B+ one with Cerebras the other day) + are just spreading contagion so they try and get backstopped by US government if they run out of funds. This type of debt buildout on a questionable counterparty overshadows their other business verticals, and my opnion is that there's a lot better longs out there than taking a risk on OpenAI. Just my opnion though, we might see a short term oracle recovery bc of openai's recent funding from softbank and others but I don't think it can be sustained over the years.
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发布1月25日美股评级，强烈看好AI、内存及美国供应链瓶颈股，回避高估值与稀释风险标的。
1月25日评级。欧盟关税及$INTC财报后更新。 强烈买入： $SNAP $META 三星电子 SK海力士 $MU 欣兴电子 $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL 买入： $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF 存疑 $VELO $SKYT 回避 $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ, RGTI, QBTS _ 强烈买入 Snapchat - 底部约在$7.4，我认为在此位置非常强劲。随着内存资本支出减少及内存变现进入2027年，自由现金流(FCF)增加。只需等待重估。 Meta - 营收同比增长26%极其强劲，上季度产生超$100亿自由现金流。预计下季度财报后走势将走强，此前因光学(环比EPS光学效应超700%)导致BBB抛售，现在应已消化。 三星电子 - 半导体领域的圣杯，三星同时提供高带宽内存(HBM)和代工(Fab)敞口。 SK海力士 - 内存超级周期 美光 - 内存超级周期，但有美国背景支持。 欣兴电子 - 针对HBM、IC载板、玻璃基板、CoWoS及其他所有瓶颈环节的“邪恶”长线持仓。 台积电 - 印钞机，字面意义上不会出错。 Circle - 预计降息2-3次可能会大幅损害Circle净利润，因此已被定价。但在$160亿市值时是极佳的长线标的，他们正在印钞，且应开始看到美元稳定币(USDC)的扩张。 AXTI - LPTH: 磷化铟(InP)/锗等瓶颈。将成为2026年的巨大主题。只需等待AXT的供应链中断或Lightpath的黑钻(Black Diamond)在美国制造。我认为由于产能爬坡->收入增加，下行风险极低，但类似HBM的“登月式”涨价可能存疑。 COPX - 锂：稀土/材料如铜、锂是2026年的极佳长线标的。与上述瓶颈类似，来自中国的供应链中断将导致资金流向确保供应+建设新供应链。 AEHR - 说实话，他们处于AI和机器人两个热门垂直领域。$550万索诺玛(Sonoma)订单可能与美光和碳化硅(SiC)测试有关。看起来是市值低于$10亿的极佳“登月”标的。 FORM - 由于涉及DRAM/HBM及代工/逻辑，可能在美国供应链中变得重要。良率在HBM4中尤为重要。 AMKR - 美国本土制造供应链及台积电->美国转移的极大受益者。 博通 - 财报后近期大幅回调。鉴于超大规模客户ASIC将继续爬坡（尽管有一些延迟），我认为在此位置强烈买入。 Marvell - 与博通故事相同，Marvell因微软Maia延迟传闻而抛售。只需等待2027年营收约翻倍，当市场开始定价这一点，以及在Celestial收购后，他们在互连等其他领域做得很好。 买入 Coinbase - 加密货币近期回调使Coinbase在$570亿市值下价值再次合理。我从未喜欢其交易所部分，但为贝莱德IBIT ETF提供基础设施+与Circle的USDC收入分成，赋予Coinbase相当不错的长期价值。 SMCI - 从$60+暴跌回$30+呈现了极具吸引力的机会。市场极度担忧毛利率->SMCI向海外扩张，特别是主权AI+购买低端Nvidia GPU。且SMCI在那里的毛利率应会提升。也可能因为与客户达成的交易变得“粘性”。他们的营收增长并未停滞，仍达$360亿+。 GOOGL - 此时Gemini可能会接管ChatGPT，所以我会继续做多谷歌。 Figma - 软件板块抛售为许多被重挫的标的如Figma提供了良好机会，其拥有极高的毛利率+稳健增长。 亚马逊 - 价格基本与去年持平，他们一直在增长，AWS表现良好，涉足机器人+太空低轨卫星(LEO)，看起来是未来极佳的长线标的。 比特币 - 始终是极具吸引力的长线标的 Reddit - 估值高，但毛利率极高且不会消失，因为每个人都在用Reddit。 TTD - 2025年的抛售再次呈现了极具吸引力的估值 HIMS - 说实话，在$29时对我极具吸引力，可能会再次放入强烈买入，但当然营收减速非常令人担忧。主要Alpha在于市场未定价Zava收购，仅凭庞大的客户群，他们就能从新客户中衍生大量营收。 Robinhood - 从$140抛售回$100再次为Robinhood提供了良好机会。他们不会消失，加上银行+其他新产品营收扩张，应带来积极顺风。 Coherent - 长线美国供应链，特别是光子学、InP等。 AMBA - 针对边缘AI推理用于机器人爬坡+边缘计算的“登月”长线标的。 POET - 现在基本是1/2现金，通过Celestial间接进入Marvell+超大规模客户。鉴于承销商在$7.25买入，$6.8的股价具有吸引力。 AAOI - 与微软Maia和AWS Trainium绑定的长线标的。两者都尚未真正起飞，所以只是等待游戏。 LASR - 定向能武器非常酷。我不太喜欢基本面如20%左右的营收增长，但技术实在太酷了。 VPG - 与Optimus爬坡绑定的长线标的。我们应在2026年底看到工业用例，2027年底看到消费用例，所以Optimus生产可能现在开始或Q2影响资产负债表。 OSS - 国防板块及边缘AI+$2亿合同的长线标的。 INTC - 做多美国政策，财报并未改变任何观点，只是短期价格。 UMAC - 在此水平上是美国无人机制造的极佳长线标的。 ONDS, Airo, DPRO - 与AIRO, DPRO相同，看多无人机板块。相比几周前美国入侵委内瑞拉并威胁格陵兰时，没有太多巨大的顺风，但主题上看多。 AVAV - 关于将研发类合同->长期合同的错误信息导致抛售，呈现了相当大的上行空间 BULL - 我喜欢像Robinhood, Webull等拥有大量零售用户的券商，因为一旦拥有客户群，就有无尽的变现方式。抛售回$8呈现了极具吸引力的上行空间 ETOR - 抛售过度，净利润同比高，基本50%现金，下行风险低。只需等待财报重估。他们表现也不错，AUM同比70%+，所以不明白为何这样定价。 VLN - 不再像以前那样接近1:1资产/净值，曾有一段时间他们有$1100万+投资(下跌63%)毛利率，$9300万现金，所以会更接近1.1-1.2亿 : $1.4亿市值，这说不通。话虽如此，仍有$8000万远期营收，毛利率从63%->69%，看起来重估机会相当大。市场似乎只是不喜欢与某国相关的公司如Etoro，我想 Nebius - $150亿Clickhouse估值仅显示了分部加总(SOTP)，我不惊讶他们的子公司如Avride最终会超越主营业务。话虽如此，由于$20亿+ ATM在公开市场出售，近期有卖压。随着他们在2026年底达到$70亿ARR目标，应会极速爬坡。 GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - 继续做多colo及其他新云板块标的。话虽如此，大多数自2025年以来已上涨30-40%+，所以它们不再是强烈的买入，因为已被定价。但仍有很多上行空间。 存疑 VELO - 很多人问我对此的看法，因为FinX喜欢这只股票。他们有很酷的客户如SpaceX，但基本面看起来糟糕。 ~$1180万现金 + $1750万发行 vs. ~$2300万债务。他们几乎没有剩余跑道，现在买入的人可能会被稀释。 Velo是拥有像IQE(欧洲InP供应链)这样极佳客户群但基本面糟糕的完美例子。 SKYT - 它是美国本土制造供应链的极佳标的，用于量子组件或边缘等酷东西。受益于芯片法案，但营收增长非常缓慢。它比Velo是更好的投机性长线，因为基本面更好。 24%左右的低毛利率，非常低的运营利润率，显然已计入市值，但美国纯代工应是一个溢价的好故事。底线是增长不够快。 回避 UAVS - 无尽的稀释机器，超过100%的市值已给予可将对市值25%以下的股份100%+转换为零售出售的套利投资者 BKKT - $3亿ATM稀释，而市值为$5.5亿。无尽的稀释机器 沃尔玛 - 43倍市盈率，不可能。 SLNH - 前方有大量稀释。 Palantir - 担忧估值P/E Coreweave - 担忧巨额债务，$10亿+债务利息严重损害自由现金流。然后是OpenAI的分配/建设，如果考虑到Gemini正在接管OpenAI的市场份额，对其能否履行合同义务存在极度、极度的担忧。 Oracle - 可能有技术性反弹，但说真的，他们为OpenAI(如Stargate)花费了太多资本支出，像Coreweave一样，OpenAI在能否履行合同义务方面存在极度担忧 BMNR - 无尽的稀释机器为愚蠢的项目融资，如$2亿投入Mr. Beast的公司。预期长期ETH质押ETF，做空BMNR，溢价将消失，例如$2亿现金投入Mr. Beast的公司流动性很差。 IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - 量子估值非常拉伸。 _ 总体想法： 我个人保持极度做多，这只是个人想法，非投资建议(NFI)。 许多小盘股和投机性公司自1月1日以来已经重估，我不认为许多50-100%的涨幅会持续（周五我们看到这些标的中有很多获利了结）。 话虽如此，特朗普正试图进一步降息（再降息2-3次），特别是因为中期选举即将到来。 SPY上涨 = 当选几率更大。所以我会保持极度做多直到中期选举后。 话虽如此，这有助于成长、投机性公司等。但我们已经看到这在很大程度上已被定价，如我最喜欢的长线标的之一Rocketlab，季度营收$1.55亿却达到$450亿+市值，所以我开始质疑估值->将许多头寸转向更多价值型（如软件下跌或内存超级周期）。 主题上我极度看多 - AI, 内存, 半导体 - 瓶颈 - 关键材料等。 非常看多 - 美国本土制造供应链 看多 - 国防板块 并会寻找软件到社交媒体公司等的波段交易/复苏/重估机会，鉴于近期的抛售。
英文原文
Jan 25th Ratings. Post EU Tariffs and $INTC ER. Strong Buy: $SNAP $META Samsung Electronics SK Hynix $MU Unimicron $TSM $CRCL $AXTI $LPTH $COPX $LIT $AEHR $FORM $AMKR $AVGO $MRVL Buy: $COIN $SMCI $GOOGL $FIG $AMZN $IBIT $RDDT $TTD $HIMS $HOOD $COHR $AMBA $IREN $POET $AAOI $LASR $VPG $OSS $INTC $UMAC $ONDS $AIRO $DPRO $AVAV $BULL $ETOR VLN NBIS GLXY CIFR HUT WULF Questionable $VELO $SKYT Avoid $UAVS $BKKT WLMT SLNH $PLTR CRWV $ORCL $BMNR $IONQ , RGTI, QBTS _ Strong Buy Snapchat - Bottomed around $7.4, imo very strong at this level. Increased FCF from memory opex reduction and memory monetization into 2027. Just a waiting game for re-rating. Meta - 26% Y/Y revenue growth is extremely strong, produced $10B+ FCF last quarter. Expect it to pick up after next quarter earnings due to optics (700%+ Q/Q EPS optics) that caused selloff last time from BBB. Samsung Electronics - Holy grail for semis, samsung provides exposure to both hbm and foundry. SK Hynix - memory supercycle Micron - memory supercycle, but with US backing. Unimicron - unholy long for hbm, ic substrates, glass core, cowos, and all other bottlenecks. TSM - money printer, literally can't go wrong with this. Circle - 2-3x projected rate cuts would likely hurt circle net income a lot, hence why it's being priced in. But amazing long at $16B as they print money and should start seeing expansion of USDC. AXTI - LPTH: Bottlenecks for InP / Germanium, etc. Will be a huge theme going into 2026. It's just a waiting game for both supply chain disruption (in AXT) or made in America w/ black diamond in Lightpath. Low downside risk imo due to capacity ramp -> revenue increase, but moonshot HBM type price increases might be questionable. COPX - LI: Rare Earths/Materials like Copper, Lithium are great longs for 2026. Similar with bottlenecks above, supply chain disruptions from China will cause money to flow into securing supply + buildout out new supply chains. AEHR - Honestly, they sit in two different hot verticals in AI and Robotics. $5.5m Sonoma order might be linked with Micron and SiC Testing. Seems like an extremely good moonshot sub $1B MC. FORM - Likely to be important in US supply chains since they do DRAM/HBM, and Foundry/Logic. & Yield is especailyl important w/ hbm4. AMKR - extreme beneficiary of made in america us supply chains and tsm -> US AVGO - Large correction recently post earnings. Strong buy IMO at these levels given hyperscaler ASICs will continue to ramp (even though there's been some delays). MRVL - Same story with Broadcom, marvell selloff after rumors of Microsoft maia delays. It's just a waiting game for ~2x revenue in 2027 and when markets start pricing that in, and after celestial acqusition, they're doing great stuff in other segments like interconnects. Buy Coinbase - Recent correction to Crypto makes Coinbase value decent again at $57B. Was never a fan of their exchange portion, but providing infra for Blackrock IBIT etfs + USDC revenue sharing with Circle, gives Coinbase pretty good long term value. SMCI - Extreme selloff from the $60's+ back to $30's presents attractive opportunity here. Markets are extremely concerned about gross margins -> SMCI expanding overseas, especially with soverign AI + buying lower end nvda gpus. and SMCI's margins should increase over there. Also likely due to deals to become sticky w/ customers. It's not like they're dying revenue growth to $36B+. GOOGL - Gemini at this point would likely take over chatgpt, so i'd remain long google. Figma - Software selloff provides good opportunity into a lot of the hammered names like Figma which extremely high gross margins + sturdy growth Amazon - Basically same price as last year, they've been growing, AWS is doing fine, they're in robotics + space LEOs, and just seems like a great long going forward Bitcoin - Always an attractive Long Reddit - High valuations, but extremely high gross margins and not going anywhere since everyone uses reddit. TTD - Selloff from 2025 presents attractive valuations again HIMS - Honestly extremely attractive for me at $29, might be put into strong buy again, but of course revenue deceleration is very worrysome. Main alpha is that markets arent pricing in Zava acqusition and just from sheer customer base, they can derive a lot of revenue from new customers. Robinhood - Selloff from $140 back to $100 presents a good opportunity for Robinhood again. They're not going anywere, plus new product revenue expansion from banking + others, should present positive tailwinds. Coherent - Long US supply chains, esp. for photonics, inp, etc. AMBA - Moonshot long for edge AI inference for robotic ramps + edge compute. POET - Basically 1/2 cash now, backdoor into marvell + hyperscalers through celestial. Attractive upside at $6.8 given underwriters bought at $7.25 AAOI - long play tethered to msft maia and aws trainium. both of them haven't really taken off yet so it's just a waiting agme LASR - energy directed weapons are super cool. i dont quite like the fundamentals like low 20% revenue growth, but the technology is just way too cool. VPG - Long play tethered to optimus ramp. we should see industrial use cases EOY 2026 and consumer EOY 2027, so maybe optimus productions starts hitting balance sheet now or q2. OSS - Long play on defense sector and edge AI + $200m contract. INTC - long on us policy, earnings didn't really change any perspective, just short term price. UMAC - Great long play at these levels on drone manufacturing in US. ONDS, Airo, DPRO - Same with AIRO, DPRO, bullish on drone sector. There's not much of a massive tailwind compared to a few weeks ago when US was invading venezuela and threatening greenland, but thematically bullish. AVAV - selloff from misinformation about converting r&D type contracts -> long term contract presents considerable upside BULL - I do like brokerages like robinhood, webull, etc. that have a ton of retail users since there's endless ways to monetize once you own the customer base. selloff back to $8 presents attractive upsdie ETOR - selloff way overblown, high net income y/y, basically 50% cash, low downside risk. just waiting for re-rating per earnings. they're doing well too, 70%+ Y/Y AUM, so not sure why they're being priced in like this. VLN - not quite the same anymore as close to 1:1 assets/nav, at one point they had $11m+ inv (off 63%) gross margins, $93M cash, so would have been closer to 110-120m : $140m MC, which made no sense. That being said still $80m fwd revenue off 63% -> 69% gross margins, seems like considerable opportunity for re-rating. Markets just don't seem to like companies eg. Etoro related to a certain country, I guess Nebius - $15B clickhouse valuation just goes to show Sum of Parts, where I wouldn't be surpirsed if their subsidaries like Avride ended up overtaking the main business. That being said, near term selling pressure due to $2B+ ATM being sold on open market. Should ramp up extremely fast as they meet their $7B ARR target EOY 2026. GLXY, CIFR, HUT, IREN, WULF - Remain long on the colo, and other neocloud sector plays. That being said most are up 30-40%+ since 2025, so they're not exactly a strong buy anymore as they've been priced in. But lot of upside remains. Questionable VELO - Lot of people asked my opinion on this since FinX loves this stock. They have really cool customers like SpaceX, but fundamentals look terrible. ~$11.8M cash + $17.5M offering vs. ~$23M. debt. They barely have any runway left and people buying now are likely to be diluted. Velo is the perfect example of amazing customer base like IQE (EU for inP supply chain), but terrible fundamentals. SKYT - It's a great made in america supply chain company for a lot of cool stuff like quantum components or edge. Benefits from CHIP act, but very slow revenue growth. It's a lot better speculative long than Velo since it has better fundamenatls. Lower gross margins like 24%, very low operating margins, is obviously priced into MC but U.S. pure-play foundry should be a good story for premium. Bottom line are not really growing too fast though. Avoid UAVS - Endless dilution machine with over 100%+ of marketcap given over to arbitrage investors that can convert 100%+ of the shares under 25% market value to sell on retail BKKT - $300m ATM dilution right now while MC is $550m. Endless dilution machine Walmart - 43 p/e, there's no way. SLNH - Lot of dilution ahead. Palantir - Concern over valuation P/E Coreweave - Concerns over large debt, $1B+ in debt interest hurts FCF a ton. Then there's allocation/buildout for OpenAI, which has extreme, extreme concerns if they can fulfill contract obligations, especially since gemini is taking over market share of openai. Oracle - There might be technical rebound, but seriously, they've spent so much capex just for openai (eg. stargate), and like coreweave, OpenAI, which has extreme concerns over if they can fufill contracts obligations BMNR - endless dilution machine to fund silly projects like $200m into mr. beast's company. Expect long eth staking etfs, short bmnr plays, and premium to go under as $200m cash into mr. beast's company for example is not very liquid. IONQ, RGTI, QBTS - Quantum valuations are very stretched. _ Overall Thoughts: I'm personally staying extremely long, this is just personal thoughts NFI. A lot of small caps and speculative companies have already been re-rated since Jan 1st and I don't expect many of the 50-100% moves to continue (we've seen a lot of profit taking Friday on some of these names). That being said, Trump is trying to cut rates even more (another 2-3x projected), esp. since Midterms is coming up. SPY Up = better chance of getting elected. So I'm staying very long until after Midterms. That being said a lot of this helps growth, speculative companies etc. But we're already seeing this largely priced in like Rocketlab, one of my favorite longs, reaching $45B+ MC off $155m quarterly revenue, so I'm questioning valuations a bit -> pivoting a lot of positions into more value (eg. software drop or memory supercycle). Thematically I'm extremely bullish on - AI, Memory, Semis - Bottlenecks - Critical Materials, etc. Very bullish on - Made in America supply chains Bullish on - Defense Sector And would look for swing trades/recovery/re-rating for stuff like software to social media companies around now given the recent selloff.
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LASR激光武器走红，但作者认为其非良好投资标的。
我只是说这是一家做“激光定向能武器”的很酷的公司，而且正在走红。但这并不意味着 $LASR 是一笔好的投资（我目前没有任何持仓）。但我确实看到，如果他们成功开发出能向下照射任何人或物的“死光”激光，那将具有令人捧腹的潜力。
英文原文
I'm just saying it's a really cool company that does these "laser directed energy weapons" that's going viral. But that doesn't mean $LASR is a good investment (I have no positions yet). But I do see there being hilarious potential if they successfully build out death ray lasers that can beam down anyone or anything.