个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2504 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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认为若 CPO 在 2026 年下半年到来，自己会继续持有 SIVE。
为什么每个 ticker 都有人一直问我同一个问题。 如果 CPO 的拐点会在 2026 年下半年到来，那我会继续拿着 $SIVE，因为我是在提前布局下一轮光子学变化。 考虑到它只有 2.8 亿美元市值，$AVGO 明天就能把它的光子业务 / IP 买下来，从而控制 $MRVL 的光子路线图……所以我个人除了稀释之外，几乎看不到多少下行风险。
英文原文
Why do people keep asking me this for every single ticker. If CPO inflection is coming in late 2026, I'm holding $SIVE, since I'm frontrunning the next photonics shift. Given it's a $280M MC, $AVGO can just buy their photonics division/IP tomorrow and control $MRVL's photonics roadmap... so I personally don't see much downside risk aside from dilution.
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认为如果 Shkreli 加入董事会，AXTI 可能会是 100 亿美元公司。
如果 Marin Shkreli 加入 $AXTI 董事会，我觉得它可能会成为一家 100 亿美元以上的公司。 否则的话，我觉得它在这个位置算是比较合理定价，但我个人还是持有的。 它在光子学上对 AI 行业拥有一个垄断性的瓶颈。问题更多是他们会不会通过提价把这种优势武器化？ 考虑到宏观环境，CSP 里卖看跌期权、选低执行价总是个不错的进场方式。
英文原文
If Marin Shkreli joined the board of $AXTI, I think it could be a $10B+ company. Otherwise, it's fairly valued I think around these levels, but I'm personally holding. They own a monopolistic chokepoint over the AI industry with photonics. It's more of a matter of they weaponize it or not with price hikes? Given macro climate, entry via CSP is always a good idea at lower strikes.
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指出 IREN 的稀释压力远高于 Nebius。
你们觉得 $IREN 还要再摊 56.5 亿美元的稀释吗？ 如果你看多 Neocloud，真的很意外还有人没转去 $NBIS 或其他名字。 一个已经确认拿到 $NVDA 资金和机构可转债支持。 另一个则很可能在通过公开市场持续卖新股，从散户身上筹钱。 残酷的现实是： $IREN 根本无法在不靠这个的情况下把剩余产能变现。这不是“可选性”。 在挑选谁能带来股权升值时，财务结构的细微差别非常重要。 Nebius 的融资结构明显更好，这一点已经反映在年初至今的回报里了。
英文原文
Do you guys think there’s only $5,650,000,000 dilution to go with $IREN? Very surprising that people haven’t switched to $NBIS or other names if you’re long Neoclouds. One already has confirmed funding with $NVDA + convertibles from institutions. The other is likely actively selling new shares on the open market to get funding off retail shareholders. The sad reality is: $IREN simply cannot monetize the rest of their capacity without using that. It’s not “optionality”. Financial structure nuance matters when you’re choosing winners for equity appreciation. Nebius is clearly has the better financing structure and this is already showing up in YTD returns.
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认为即使大盘再跌，AAOI 也可能跑赢。
@Ungrate11057544 就算 $SPY、$MSFT、$AMZN 再跌 20%，我也还是觉得 $AAOI 会跑赢市场。
英文原文
@Ungrate11057544 Let's just say even if $SPY, $MSFT, $AMZN crashes another 20% I expect $AAOI to outperform the market.
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称自己刚在 84 美元附近买了 AAOI，觉得 66 亿市值太便宜。
@mi20483980476 我刚刚在大概 84 美元附近买了不少 $AAOI。对我来说，66 亿美元市值实在太便宜了，尤其是在他们有新的 5 亿美元战备资金的情况下。
英文原文
@mi20483980476 I personally bought a decent amount of $AAOI at ~$84 just now, $6.6B MC feels way too cheap for me, especially with their new $500m warchest.
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认为 AAOI 在宏观不利时也能跑赢，因供给瓶颈和客户会付费。
我其实对大盘是看空的。 不过像 $AAOI 这种个股，我觉得即使宏观环境不好也会跑赢。 如果大家都缺货——即便超大规模客户削减 capex，你在瓶颈环节里还是会遇到同样的问题。 而且光收发器在 BOM 里的占比其实不算其他东西那么高，比如内存，所以他们会愿意付钱。 一句话总结就是挺复杂，但我个人确实觉得 $AAOI 会跑赢宏观环境。
英文原文
I'm actually bearish on the market. However, there's some individual stocks like $AAOI that I expect to outperform despite macro climate. If you're sold out because nobody can make enough... even if hyperscalers cut back capex, you have the same problem in the bottleneck. Also BOM share of optical transceivers is actually not that much compared to others like memory, so they'd happily pay. TLDR pretty nuanced, but I do think $AAOI outpetforms macro climate personally.
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不喜欢 Jane Street 持有和自己一样的 AAOI，因为他们会放大波动。
这就是为什么我不喜欢 Jane Street 持有和我一样的 $AAOI。 他们是做波动交易的，尤其喜欢搞散户最爱的名字，然后触发止损和恐慌。 但如果你知道自己持有什么： 一家美国公司，6.69 十亿美元市值，做的是整条收发器供应链： 从激光 -> 设计 -> 组装。 如果 $MSFT、$AMZN、$ORCL 这些公司真的会把他们能买的都买了，那对我个人来说，这个价格简直是捡漏。 对高 beta 股票来说，入场前把 conviction 和仓位管理好特别重要。 否则你就会一遍又一遍地在底部割肉、在顶部追高。
英文原文
And... this is why I don't like Jane Street owning the same stocks I do like $AAOI. They trade volatility, especially with retail favorite names and trigger stop losses/panic. If you know what you own though: $6.69B for a US company that makes the entire transceiver supply chain: From Laser -> Design -> Assembly. With likely $MSFT, $AMZN, $ORCL buying anything they can make, is a steal for me personally. With high beta stocks, it's really important to build conviction and manage sizing correctly before entering a trade. Otherwise you'll end up capitulating the bottom and buying the top over and over.
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认为 MRVL 是长期好票，但 SIVE 作为瓶颈环节会对其增长造成威胁。
@StocksAREnuts $MRVL 确实是一只很好的长期多头。 我只是想分享一下：某个竞争对手如果想卡住它的增长垂直业务线，只需要花 3.5 亿美元买下 $SIVE 这种级别的公司就行。
英文原文
@StocksAREnuts $MRVL is a really good long term long. I’m just sharing thought about how a competitor could potentially chokepoint their growth verticals for a rounding error of $350m with $SIVE
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认为 Marvell 也许可以用很小成本持有 SIVE 一部分。
@PerDahlstrm $MRVL 其实只要花 3000 万美元买下 $SIVE 的 10% 到 20%，就能把他们十亿美元级别的 CPO 项目稳住。
英文原文
@PerDahlstrm $MRVL can just buy 10-20% of $SIVE for $30m and secure their billion dollar CPO program
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认为 SIVE 不太可能被 ARM 并购。
@VJNCapital 不会。$SIVE Photonics 作为上游光学组件供应商规模太小了，所以大概率会被放行。 $ARM 的体量则太大，会引发反垄断问题。
英文原文
@VJNCapital Nope. $SIVE photonics is too small as an upstream optical component supplier so would likely pass. $ARM would raise antitrust due to size.
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Sivers作为稀缺独立cw激光供应商，战略价值远超当前市值估值。
我个人看到 $SIVE 下跌风险较小的原因： 像 $AVGO 这样 $MRVL 的竞争对手可以直接收购 Sivers，从而控制其近中期光子学路线图... 估值约 2.9 亿美元... 如果再便宜一点的话。 Gemini 的回应很有趣： "像 Broadcom 这样以约 2.9 亿美元收购 Sivers Photonics 来扼制 Marvell 新收购的 Celestial AI 路线图不仅仅是战略行为； 这是一场投资回报率高得离谱的供应链战争。" "花点小钱，竞争对手就能控制上游光源，把握直接的 IP 路线图，并让试图整合 Celestial AI 的 Marvell 付出数十亿美元的机会成本。" 对于 $MSFT, AlChip, $MRVL, $AMZN 等超大规模云服务商来说，投资 Sivers 来确保其共封装光学(CPO)供应链可能比让它被竞争对手收购更有利。 就像 $QLCM 与 Alphawave 针对 OpenLight 生态所做的操作一样。 我的观点是：$SIVE 作为全球少数保持独立运营的 cw 激光器供应商之一的关键瓶颈地位... 其固有的价值远超其市值。 对冲基金因「MC」和瑞典交易所上市限制无法投资从而压低估值... 对于收购方或散户投资者来说反而是一种因祸得福。
英文原文
The reason I personally see less downside risk with $SIVE: A competitor to $MRVL like $AVGO can just buy Sivers outright and their near-medium term photonics roadmap… At ~$290m… if it gets any cheaper. Gemini responses were interesting: “ A competitor like Broadcom buying Sivers Photonics for ~$290M to choke Marvell’s newly acquired Celestial AI roadmap isn't just strategic; It is supply chain warfare with an absurdly high ROI. “ “ For pocket change, a competitor could buy the upstream light source, control the immediate IP roadmap, and inflict billions of dollars worth of opportunity cost on Marvell right as they try to integrate Celestial AI “ It’s likely better for hyperscalers like $MSFT, AlChip, $MRVL, $AMZN to invest in Sivers to secure their CPO supply chain then have it being bought out by one of their competitors. Like what happened already with $QLCM and Alphawave for OpenLight. My opinion: $SIVE chokepoint as one of the few projects remaining independent cw laser suppliers in the world… Is inherently way more valuable than their marketcap. Hedge funds not being able to invest due to “MC” and Sweden listing to keep valuations depressed… is a blessing in disguise for both acquisitions or retail investors.
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只有一个股票代码。
@mi20483980476 $AAOI
英文原文
@mi20483980476 $AAOI
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虽然看多存储，但宏观和战争会盖过个股表现。
没错，我总体上还是看多存储，因为我觉得需求是结构性的。价格上涨不是结构性的，但未来 $MU 到 SK 海力士的毛利率会一直很高。 不过宏观 / 战争会压过 $EWY 和其他名字。 所以如果有全球能源危机，个股表现也就没那么重要了。
英文原文
No, I'm largely bullish on memory since I think demand is structural. Price hikes are not, but gross margins will be high for $MU to SK Hynix moving forward. However, Macro/War overshadows $EWY and other names. So individual performance won't matter as much if there's a global energy criss.
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警告$IREN的60亿美元ATM大规模稀释将清算散户股权，历史先例已证明结局惨烈
$IREN 提交了文件，计划以 117 亿美元市值稀释 60 亿美元。 这不是噪音。 这是 Iren 通过向公开市场发售所有新股来变现 4.5GW 容量的方式。 如果你想了解这类操作的历史结果： 看看 $BKKT 在 Mike 手下暴跌 99% 的先例，以及 $IREN 董事会过去大规模 ATM（按市价发行）的历史。或者他最近的公司 $ASST。 这对公司和高管是增值的：因为这清算了所有散户股东，而他们总可以发行 SBC（股权激励）。 所以他们实际上并不在乎股价需要达到什么水平才能发售。 完成之后，他们将拥有 60 亿美元新现金用于扩张，而无需支付利息。 但可转换票据附带利息、以及 $NVDA 资助资产负债表的模式对散户资金好得多的原因是： 因为它不需要清算散户股权就能实现这一点。因为目前看来 $IREN 像是数据中心版的 $AMC，拥有不断缩小的护城河，以及即将有 60 亿美元新股涌入公开市场。 我发帖讨论 $IREN 的原因是： - 人们将 60 亿美元 ATM 视为"噪音"而不予理会 - 它是最受散户欢迎的"抄底"标的之一，而这些散户正在买入一个 60 亿美元稀释机器 - 人们仍然完全不了解其中的风险 - 他们目前的资金量不足以支撑 GPU/GW 容量的货币化 - 他们很可能必须使用 ATM，这不是"选择性" 再次声明：我在这家公司零仓位。 我只是警告散户投资者，这个 ATM 的结构性机制如何通过 60 亿美元以上的 ATM 运作来从结构上抹杀你的股权增值。 因为 $IREN 可能需要在任何价格出售新股来变现他们的 GW，否则就没有必要提交这个文件。 高管们实际上不需要担心，因为他们可以通过发行 SBC 来弥补股价下跌，就像 $SNAP 一样。 如果你还在疑惑你的股权是否会被大规模 ATM 清算： 还有更好的做多选择，比 $IREN 更值得。
英文原文
$IREN filed to dilute $6,000,000,000 at a $11.7B MC. That is not noise. This is Iren's way to monetize their 4.5GW capacity by selling all those new shares onto the open market. If you want some history on how this turns out: Look at $BKKT that crashed 99% with Mike and $IREN board of directors history with excessive ATMs. Or his recent company $ASST. It’s accretive to the company and executives: Because it wipes out all retail shareholders and they can always issue SBC. So they don’t actually care what stock price it needs to be at to sell. After they’re finished, they have $6B in new cash to use for scaling without paying interest. But the reason why convertible notes with interest, and $NVDA funding balance sheets is much better for retail capital: Is because it doesn’t wipe out retail equity to achieve this. Because at this point $IREN looks like the $AMC of datacenters with a dwindling moat, and looming $6B in shares sold into the open market. Reason I post about $IREN is because - people dismiss a $6B ATM as “Noise” - it’s one of the most popular retail “buy the dip” companies that they’re buying into a $6B dilution machine - people still don’t understand the risk at all. - the amount they have now is not enough to finance GPUs/GW capacity monetization. - they likely will have to use the ATM, it’s not “optionality” Again: I have zero positions in the company. I’m just warning retail investors that this ATM structurally wipes out your equity appreciation by how structural mechanics of $6B+ ATMs work. Because $IREN likely needs to sell new shares at any price to monetize their GW, otherwise there would be zero need to file it. Executives actually don't need to care because they can make up for stock price dropping by issuing SBC like $SNAP. If you have to wonder if your equity gets wiped out from an excessive ATM: There are better longs out there than $IREN.
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补充说 GLNG 也是不错的选择。
@NishantChandra2 $GLNG 也是个不错的选择。
英文原文
@NishantChandra2 $GLNG is a good pick as well
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认为 RDDT 掌握用户信息后，定向广告收入会像 META 一样提升。
@SidG1293 如果他们 $RDDT 掌握了用户信息来做账号验证，那定向广告收入上升的现实就会像 $META 一样。
英文原文
@SidG1293 If they $RDDT knows people’s info for account verification. The sad reality is that their targeted ad revenue goes up like $META.
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认为战时最直接的做法可能是做多 LNG 和石油出口，而不是逆势抄底。
老实说……最明显的想法，比如做多 $LNG，或者做多 $CVX，可能就是最好的，而不是在战时去逆势做多别的东西？ 尤其是在 18-30 的低 IV 下，这些到现在本来都能轻松涨几百个百分点了。 如果局势继续升级，石油和 LNG 出口商大概率还有更多上涨空间。
英文原文
Honestly... the most obvious ideas like long $LNG. Or going long on $CVX. Are probably the best ones instead of contrarian longs in Wartime? Especially with low 18-30 IV, this would have easily been a few hundred percent gain by now. There’s probably a lot more for oil and LNG exporters to run if tensions escalate.
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看好 NEXT 的三到五年长期逻辑，LNG 出口商会受益于伊朗局势。
对 $NEXT 来说，这是一个极其扎实的 3 到 5 年长期多头，尤其是当产能已经卖光了的时候。 不过 LNG 的产量要到 2027 年上半年？ 但我确实认为整个板块都会受到关注。 伊朗事件的主要受益者就是像 $LNG 这样的 LNG 出口商，现在它们在为全球其他地区托底。
英文原文
Extremely solid multi-year long (eg. 3-5 years) for $NEXT, especially when capacity is sold out already. LNG production is first half of 2027 though? Though I do think the sector as a whole will get attention. The main beneficiaries of Iran are the LNG exporters like $LNG now backstopping the rest of the world though.
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认为 NOC、LMT 已提前计入冲突，油价也早已先跑，后续仍可能继续上涨。
$NOC、$LMT 在冲突发生前就已经先跑了，因为市场大体上早就预期到伊朗这件事。Lockheed 年初至今涨了 23%，即使回落后也已经非常夸张。 油价也提前交易过了，但伊朗把一切都炸开的二阶、三阶影响远超预期。 所以这些标的还在继续走强，因为如果局势进一步升级，前面可能会有一场巨大的危机。
英文原文
$NOC, $LMT already frontran ahead of conflict since Iran was largely expected. Lockheed up 23% YTD is enormous already, even after the drop. Oil was frontran as well, but the third order effects of Iran blowing everything up was way beyond expectations. So those kept going up, since there's a possibility of a massive crisis ahead if things escalate even more.
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说可以把 MU/SNDK 换成海力士，把 COHR 换成 LITE，强调自己偏好的标的。
@ajouannic 你可以把 $MU / $SNDK 换成海力士。或者把 $COHR 换成 $LITE。 我只是说说我个人更看好的替代选择。
英文原文
@ajouannic You can replace $MU / $SNDK with Sk Hynix. Or replace $COHR with $LITE. I'm just saying my personal preferences in what I expect to outperform.
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分享小账户分散化投资组合，涵盖AI半导体、光子学、机器人、加密等领域的高增长和杠铃策略标的
快速增长赛道： $AAOI - 光收发器2027年下半年收入增长10倍 $NBIS - 2026年第四季度收入增长10倍 $ARM - 全新AI CPU带来5倍收入增长 $MRVL - 来自$MSFT Maia芯片项目2-3倍收入增长 $AVGO - 长期持有超大规模云厂商ASIC $LITE - 长期持有OCS/谷歌TPU Win Semi - 对前沿行业的代工敞口 $TSEM - 长期持有光子业务，订单积压 SK Hynix - 存储业务敞口，极端营业利润增长 同时配置一些杠铃策略，远离超大规模云厂商资本支出（除亚马逊外）： $VNP - 长期持有西部供应链的稀土 $NEO (TCX) - 机器人供应链 $AMZN - 机器人/AI降低运营成本 $CRCL - 稳定币多头 $RDDT - 高得离谱的利润 $GLD - 安全对冲 $IBIT - 2028年减半 $CVX 看涨期权 - 石油对冲 也许还有长期配置（你知道迟早会来）： $INTC/$AMKR - 美国制造供应链 $SOI - 硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)基板 $RKLB - 对太空行业的长期看涨期权 然后挑选一两支小盘股博暴涨： $SIVE - CW激光关键点或$I QE - Landmark重组重估，这是我最喜欢的两个 还有其他我提过的，比如$AEHR用于测试或$VPG用于Optimus 我自己在$AXTI等股票上的主动管理模式与其他人应该做的完全不同风险敞口配置。 在这种宏观环境下全仓投入高贝塔标的不太是最佳选择。
英文原文
Faster compounds: $AAOI - 10x revenue ramp from optical transcivers h2 2027 $NBIS - 10x revenue ramp Q4 2026 $ARM - 5x revenue growth from their new AI CPU $MRVL - 2-3x revenue growth from $MSFT Maia Ramp. $AVGO - Long hyperscaler ASIC $LITE - Long OCS / Google TPU Win Semi - Foundry exposure to frontier industries $TSEM - Long photonics, backlogged SK Hynix - Memory exposure, extreme operating income ramp With some barbell exposure away from Hyperscaler capex aside from Amazon: $VNP - Long term rare earths for Western Supply chains $NEO (TCX) - Robotics Supply chains $AMZN - Robotics/AI cutting opex $CRCL - Stablecoin long $RDDT - Ridiculously high profit $GLD - Safe Hedge $IBIT - Halving 2028 $CVX Calls - Oil Hedge And maybe long term (you know it's coming): $INTC / $AMKR- Made in America supply chains $SOI - Silicon Photonics / CPO substrates. $RKLB - Long term call on Space industry Then pick one or two small cap moonshots: $SIVE - CW Laser Chokepoints or $IQE for Landmark rerating on restructuring were my two favorites. There's others I've mentioned like $AEHR for testing or $VPG for Optimus. How I actively manage my own stuff from $AXTI and others is a lot different risk profile than what others should do. Going full port into high-beta in this macro environment is not the best idea.
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说如果连 CRWV 都快撑不住了，市场上大概还有更好的多头。
@BelfortsTaxGuy 如果你已经开始想，$CRWV 几乎都要撑不住了……那市场上大概还有更好的多头，我只是说一下。
英文原文
@BelfortsTaxGuy If you have to think about almost not sinking for $CRWV... there's probably better longs out there in the market, just saying?
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对比IREN与SIVE稀释规模，认为SIVE风险回报更优
@Jornka329996 @gude57856 $IREN正在稀释超过60亿美元的股份，却无人关注。$SIVE可能需要稀释1500-2000万美元来扩大连续波(CW)激光业务板块，开始成长为下一个$LITE？风险回报特征对我而言更青睐像$SIVE这样的名字。
英文原文
@Jornka329996 @gude57856 $IREN is out there diluting $6B+ and nobody bats an eye. $SIVE could potentially dilute $15M-20M to scale up CW laser segments and start growing into the next $LITE? Risk reward profiles favor names like $SIVE for me.
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对比三只Neocloud股票，认为$NBIS是最佳选择，$CRWV融资结构致命，$IREN长期增值但短期散户不利
我对$NBIS、$IREN、$CRWV以及当前Neocloud市场的看法。 其中一家将在5年内成为下一个AWS： 我的猜测是Nebius。 这不是赢家通吃（DigitalOcean与亚马逊并存），但显然有更优越的结构和可能的赢家。 不利因素： ->伊朗冲突导致降息的可能性很低。 ->更广泛的市场似乎不愿意资助CapEx周期。但又想从中获益。 关于$IREN： 我们理解，4.5GW = X收入。但谁来资助GPU？ 无论谁现在买入$6,000,000,000的ATM。 赢家将是稀释完成后进入的任何人。 现实是，如果没有colo模式，他们没有足够的资金来通过GPU货币化其容量。 而且他们没有找到其他融资方式，因此由于一个会买入他们出售的任何东西的邪教社区，他们选择了ATM。 然而，我同意长期来看这是增值的。只是对现在买入的散户没那么有利。 关于$CRWV： 他们做对了一切... $NVDA支持。超大规模客户... 但他们融资完全错了。现在，超过$1.5B+的年度债务利息正在吞噬Coreweave的利润并侵蚀FCF。 就像信用卡债务一样，Coreweave找到工作来偿还债务，但最终债务利息太高，工作收入不足以覆盖债务和扩张。 如果有任何公司倒闭，$CRWV是第一个因巨额债务和利息而倒下的。 关于$NBIS： 他们正在尽可能做好... $NVDA提供$2B资助capex。 可转债发行（可转债做空对冲对短期价格上涨不利）。 但这是比Coreweave更好的融资结构，利息低得多。 他们现在有来自$META和$MSFT的约$460亿+订单积压，这两家是最盈利的超大规模云服务商之一，且没有像Coreweave那样直接关联OpenAI的风险传染。 与其他公司不同的是；他们的其他公司也有增值（Clickhouse股权增值：avride机器人出租车规模化；toloka三位数增长）。 从我来看：Nebius是明显的赢家。 然而，当前宏观环境不利于整个板块的短期持有者，指数下跌7%。 尤其是如果他们在ATM活跃时买入的话。 长期来看，当他们规模化后获益时（例如$NBIS 2026年Q4，是的，甚至$IREN），收益将是巨大的。
英文原文
My thoughts on $NBIS, $IREN, $CRWV and the current Neocloud market. One of them ends up as the next AWS in 5 years: My guess it’s Nebius. It's not winner takes all (DigitalOcean is there with Amazon), but there's clearly superior structures and likely winners. The downside: -> Low chance of rate cuts from Iran conflict. ->Broader market doesn't appear to want to fund the CapEx cycle. But want to reap the benefits With $IREN: We get it, 4.5GW = X revenue. But who is funding the GPUs? Whoever is buying into the $6,000,000,000 ATM right now. The winners will be whoever enters after holders get fully diluted. The reality is, they don't have enough funding to monetize their capacity through GPUs without colo models. And they didn't find other financing methods, so they went through ATMs because of a cult community that will buy into anything they sell. However, I agree it will be accretive long term. Just not as much for the retail buying in now. With $CRWV: They did everything right... $NVDA backing. Hyperscaler clients... But they financed completely wrong. Now, $1.5B+ yearly debt interest is eating Coreweave alive and cuts into FCF. Almost like credit card debt, Coreweave gets a job to pay off that debt, but eventually, the debt interest is too high that working doesn't really cover that and expansion too. If any company goes down, $CRWV is the first to go the massive debt load and interest. With $NBIS: They're doing as much as they can right... $NVDA funding $2B to fund capex. Convertible note offerings (convertible note short hedging is annoying for short term price appreciation). But this is the best way to do financing structures with much lower interest than Coreweave. They now have ~$46B+ in backlog from $META and $MSFT, two of the most profitable hyperscalers out there, without direct OpenAI linked contagion like Coreweave. And unlike others; there’s appreciation from their other companies (Clickhouse equity appreciation: avride robotaxi scale up; toloka triple digit growth) From my take: Nebius is the clear winner. However, current macro environments does not favor short term holders across the board with indexes dropping 7%. Especially so if they're buying into active ATMs. Long term, the benefits when they scale up eg. $NBIS Q4 2026 (yes, even $IREN), will be immense.
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SIVE作为CPO光源瓶颈被低估，2500万市值太低，坚信将成下一个AXTI
这就是为什么在进入交易前需要有信念。如果你了解$SIVE在CW激光领域为Jabil、$MRVL Celestial等共封装光学(CPO)供应，就会明白2.5亿美元市值作为光源瓶颈来说太低了。我们高度相信，一年后这会像$AXTI一样，因为这将是CPO规模化扩展的架构范式。在上涨过程中我不关心波动，因为我对光子学的发展如何演绎有坚定的信念。
英文原文
This is why you need to have conviction before entering a trade. If you knew $SIVE positioning in the CW laser space to Jabil, $MRVL Celestial, and others for CPO. $250M MC as the light source chokepoint would be a joke. High confidence we’ll see this end up like $AXTI in a years time since it this will be the architectural paradigm for cpo scale up. Don’t care about volatility in the way up because I have conviction in how this plays out with photonics.
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看多稳懋3105：位于LEO卫星/光学/人形机器人三大高增长领域垄断瓶颈点，战略价值被市场低估。
我在稳懋（Win Semi）(3105.TWO) 4.1B市值时做多。我认为市场忽略了这家全球最重要的晶圆厂之一（在台积电$TSM之外）。我认为他们的战略定位远超40亿美元市值。他们几乎位于所有主要瓶颈点：-> SpaceX Starlink 低轨卫星供应链。-> 作为$AVGO、$LITE、$MTSI、$SIVE的磷化铟(InP)光学收发器晶圆厂。-> 作为人形机器人的身体/眼睛，是用于飞行时间(TOF)激光器的砷化镓(GaAs)晶圆厂，可能用于Boston Dynamic Atlas。-> 来自之前与联发科(MediaTek)/高通(Qualcomm)/$AAPL的业务遗留。但稳懋似乎受到legacy业务的拖累（如$SOI），光学是其最大增长向量之一。然后...稳懋拥有几乎任何晶圆厂中最大的TAM扩张/收入加速：随着：LEO、人形机器人/连续波(CW)激光、800g、1.6t、3.2t光学收发器在未来几年大幅增长。特别是博通(Broadcom)作为其锚定客户（$AVGO持有约5%的稳懋股份）。$NVDA不在乎谁制造激光器，无论是$LITE还是$COHR。他们只在乎是否有足够的供应。供应不够。-> CW激光需求可能呈抛物线增长。（他们制造像$SIVE设计的激光器）-> LEO卫星需求（SpaceX Starlink）可能呈抛物线增长。-> 人形机器人需求可能呈抛物线增长。因为稳懋位于三个最前沿和增长最快行业的半垄断瓶颈点：光子学/AI、机器人/人形机器人和太空。特别是光学TAM爆发：稳懋2027年远期收益大约在35倍范围，我认为这是保守估计，远期估值最终会非常便宜。稳懋将大大受益于TAM扩张和加速的收入增长。当然：稳懋会赢。所以我做多稳懋。
英文原文
I am long Win Semi (3105.TWO) at $4.1B MC. I believe markets are sleeping on of the most important foundries in the world (aside from $TSM). IMO their strategic positioning exceeds far beyond $4B MC. They sit in almost every major chokepoints: -> In the SpaceX Starlink LEO supply chain. -> As $AVGO, $LITE, $MTSI, $SIVE InP foundries for optical transceivers -> then as the body/eyes of humanoids as the GaAs foundry for TOF lasers possibly mapping to Boston Dynamic Atlas -> With legacy from MediaTek / Qualcomm / $AAPL from their previous business. But Win appears to be bottom of the legacy drag (like with $SOI), with optical as one of their largest growth vectors. Then... Win has the largest TAM expansion/revenue acceleration out of almost any foundry: With: LEO, humanoids / CW laser, 800g, 1.6t, 3.2t optical transceiver massive ramp up over the next few years. Especially with Broadcom as their anchor client ( $AVGO owns ~5% of Win). $NVDA doesn't care who makes the lasers, whether it's $LITE or $COHR. They just care if there's enough. There's not enough. -> Demand for CW lasers will likely go parabolic. (they make the lasers that companies like $SIVE designs) -> Demand for LEO satellites (SpaceX Starlink) will likely go parabolic. -> Demand for humanoids will likely go parabolic. As, Win Semi sits as a semi-monopoly chokepoint in the three most frontier and fastest growing industries for photonics/AI, robotics/humanoids, and space. Especially with Optical TAM explosion: Win fwd earnings for 2027 roughly in ~35x range, I do think this is sandbagging it and forward multiples will end up dirt cheap. Win will largely benefit from TAM expansion and accelerated revenue growth. Of course: Win will win. So I am long Win.
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警示VCX ETF存在严重溢价泡沫，建议回避
关于$VCX的警告。 这是一只权重偏向Anthropic、Databricks、OpenAI、Anduril和SpaceX的热门ETF。 问问你自己：SpaceX的估值是$META的23倍，合理吗？ 该股本月上涨1288%：VCX目前交易价格约为其NAV的20倍。也就是说存在1500-2000%的溢价？ 这就相当于以34万亿美元的价格买入SpaceX。或以16万亿美元买入OpenAI。 你会做空它吗？ 不能：它的流通股极少，且缺乏对冲工具。 但你应该买入吗？ $VCX现在看起来就是"博傻理论"的典型案例，你只是在玩接鼓传花的游戏。
英文原文
Warning about $VCX. A very popular ETF with weighting toward (Anthropic, Databricks, OpenAI, Anduril, and SpaceX). Ask yourself this: Is SpaceX is worth 23 times $META valuation? With the stock going up 1288% this month: VCX is trading at roughly ~20x its NAV. So 1500-2000% premium? This is like buying SpaceX at 34 Trillion USD. Or OpenAI at 16 Trillion USD. Would you short it? No: It's extremely low float and lack of options for hedging. But should you buy into it? $VCX looks like greater fools theory right now and you’re playing hot potato.
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角川书店(Kadokawa)年内涨幅15.93%，用户戏称靠动漫品味跑赢科技大盘。
很多人问我最喜欢的三部动漫： 1）《路人女主的养成方法》（《路人女主的养成方法》）- 角川书店（TYO: 9468） 2）《欢迎来到实力至上主义教室》- 角川书店（TYO: 9468） 3）《Re:从零开始的异世界生活》- 角川书店（TYO: 9468） 角川书店年内至今涨幅：15.93% 经验教训： 如果你对动漫有好的品味，就能跑赢$GOOGL和$META以及大盘指数吗？
英文原文
Lot of people were asking about my top 3 anime: 1) Eminence in Shadow - Kadokawa (TYO: 9468) 2. Classroom of the Elite - Kadokawa (TYO: 9468) 3. Re:Zero - Kadokawa (TYO: 9468) Kadokawa YTD: 15.93% Lesson learned: You can outperform $GOOGL and $META + indexes if have good taste in anime?
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认为 VLN 低于账面价值，且市场对以色列相关股票偏冷，但估值仍显著低估。
关于 $VLN，我不觉得自己错了。但市场显然不同意我的看法。 我学到了两件事： - 一些股票，像日本股，确实会交易到远低于账面价值 - 市场不太喜欢以色列股票，比如 $ETOR，我在那上面也亏了不少。 我还是觉得它被低估了。净资产（2.926 亿美元纯现金）对比 1.32 亿美元市值。 净资产是 1.05 亿美元，而且零负债。 那企业价值不就大概 2700 万美元？对于一家 2025 财年营收 7060 万美元、GAAP 毛利率 60% 的成长公司来说。 所以估值看起来很离谱。但股票市场偏偏就是这么运作的。
英文原文
As for $VLN, I don't think I'm wrong. But markets clearly disagree with my opnion. I've learned two things: - Some stocks like Japanese ones can trade way under book value - Markets don't like stocks from Israel like $ETOR for some reason (lost a lot on that too). I still think it's undervalued. Net assets ($92.6M pure cash) vs. $132M MC. Net assets is $105M with zero debt. So EV is ~$27M? For a growing company with 60% GAAP gross margins on $70.6M FY 2025 revenue. So valuation looks stupid. But somehow stocks operate that way.
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认为 LASR 与无人机股不同，因定向能武器和金穹扩展带来新催化。
@frsinvesting $LASR 和无人机板块的股票不一样，因为定向能武器现在因为 Iron Beam 的实战使用，拥有巨大的应用场景。 关键问题是它们是不是金穹扩展项目的承包商。我现在就在等这方面的消息。
英文原文
@frsinvesting $LASR is different than drone sector stocks, since energy directed weapons have a massive use case now from Iron Beam live usage. The main question is if they're the contractor for golden dome expansion or not. I'm just waiting for news surrounding that.