个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2373 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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表示会长期持有 SIVE，因为它是 CPO / 硅光公司的激光供应商，正在等待放量时刻。
@AvalancheWealth 谢谢，我会长期持有 $SIVE，因为它是那些新兴 CPO / 硅光公司的激光供应商。 感觉就像是在等它到真正大规模下单、开始发光的时候。
英文原文
@AvalancheWealth Appreciate it, I'm long term holding $SIVE, since they're the laser supplier to up and coming CPO/silicon photonics companies. Just feels like waiting for its time to shine for mass order ramp.
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仍惊讶市场在 USDC 供应增长背景下，对 CRCL 的看空在 50 美元时就投降了。
@Sam_Badawi 我还是不敢相信，大家居然在 $50 的时候就对 $CRCL 投降了…… 而 USDC 的供应明明还在增长。
英文原文
@Sam_Badawi Still can’t believe everyone capitulated $CRCL back at $50… when USDC supply has only grown.
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$SIVE是硅光子/CPO架构转变中的InP CW DFB激光器核心供应商，可能复制$LITE的估值扩张路径。
$SIVE今天已上涨+73.78%（市值2.31亿美元）。 市场正在对下一个潜在的 photonics 瓶颈进行信息综合定价。 如果我必须解释区别： Lumentum的一个激光源主要受益于当前的光学瓶颈。 而$SIVE的激光源则面向即将到来的CPO/硅光子学(SiPh)瓶颈。 Lumentum目前主要从$NVDA和超大规模云服务商那里获益，这些公司正在确保EML激光器的产能，用于当前的可插拔(optical transceiver)光收发器周期。 从当前的EML瓶颈可以看出，超大规模云服务商正在抢购任何800G/1.6T光收发器及上游产能，从： -$AAOI（内部供应） -$COHR、$LITE（EML激光器+设计）-> $FN（组装） -$COHR、$LITE（EML激光器）-> Innolight / Eoptolink 下一步是什么？ 硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)和共封装光学(Co-Packaged Optics,CPO)。 向CPO的架构转变需要大规模的高功率连续波(CW) DFB激光器阵列。 而这可能引发一次完全的、突然的需求量范式转变。 $SIVE受益于用于SiPh和CPO的磷化铟(InP) CW DFB激光器： 即将崛起的公司如： $AYAR、$POET使用$SIVE的激光器，但主要做先进封装(advanced packaging)。 然后它们向上输送给更大的公司如$MRVL Celestial（后者购买$POET的interposers）。 然而，如果你追溯到上游，光源是$SIVE。 CW DFB激光器是光引擎($SIVE)；硅光子学封装($POET等)是传输方式。 CPO规模尚未达到。但我们知道它即将到来。 正如从当前光收发器周期所见： -$LITE和$COHR的光源需求获得的估值远高于$FN等专注先进封装的公司。 市场一直在关注$POET，但错过了它们获取Starlight实际$ITE型光源的地方。 风险是存在的，包括与$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO等公司面临多源竞争。所以再次强调，请务必做自己的研究。 但我对此的反驳： Sivers足够早地为$POET、Ayar和其他公司定制激光器以满足规格要求——早在这两家公司变得流行之前（类似于$POET与$MRVL Celestial的类比）。 也存在产量风险： 但Win Semi认证的潜在成功可以抵消这一点。 为扩大产能而稀释股权的风险，对于每个早期阶段的公司来说始终存在。 我去年做过$LITE的研究，仍看好这只股票用于Google TPU ramp/光电路开关(OCS)。 但今年，我专注于： $SIVE，作为新一轮光子学架构转变的个人CW DFB激光器敞口。 我分享自己对捕捉从当前EML周期向即将到来的CW DFB/硅光子学周期轮动的思考。
英文原文
$SIVE is now up +73.78% today ($231M MC). As markets price in information synthesis of the next potential $LITE of photonics. If I had to explain the difference: One laser source in Lumentum primarily benefits from current optical bottlenecks. The other in $SIVE is for the upcoming CPO/Silicon Photonic bottleneck. Lumentum is largely benefiting right now from $NVDA and hyperscalers securing capacity of EML lasers for current pluggable optical transceivers cycles. As seen with the current EML bottleneck, hyperscalers are buying out any 800G/1.6T transceiver + upstream capacity from: - $AAOI (in-house) - $COHR, $LITE (EML lasers + design) -> $FN (assembly) - $COHR, $LITE (EML lasers) -> Innolight / Eoptolink What's next? Silicon Photonics and Co-Packaged Optics. The architectural shift to CPO requires massive arrays of high-power CW DFB lasers. And this would likely trigger a complete, sudden paradigm shift in volume demand. $SIVE benefits from InP CW DFB lasers for SiPh and CPO: The up and coming companies like: $AYAR, $POET source $SIVE lasers, but primarily do advanced packaging. Then they feed up to larger companies like $MRVL Celestial (that buy $POET's interposers). However, if you go upstream, the light source is $SIVE. CW DFB lasers are light engine ( $SIVE ); the silicon photonics package ( $POET and others) is how it gets transmitted. CPO scale is not there yet. But we know it's coming. And as seen with current optical transceiver cycles: - Light sources from $LITE and $COHR demand much higher valuations than companies like $FN that focus on advanced packaging. Markets have been focusing on $POET, but missed where they get the actual $LITE type light source for Starlight. The risks are present including facing multi-source competition with $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, and others. So again, make sure to do your own research. But my argument against that: Sivers been early enough to tailor custom lasers to fit $POET, Ayar, and other specifications before they got popular (sort like the $POET to $MRVL Celestial analogy). There's volume risks as well: But the potential Win Semi qualification offsets that. Dilution risk to scale capacity, is always present with every early-stage company as well. I did my thesis on $LITE last year and still love the stock for Google TPU ramp/OCS. But this year, I'm focusing on: $SIVE, as my personal CW DFB laser exposure for the new photonics architectural shift. I’m sharing my own thoughts on capturing the rotation from the current EML cycle to the upcoming CW DFB/Silicon Photonics cycle.
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列出自己最看好的两个 CPO / 硅光标的，认为市场正重新给这些名字定价。
我对 CPO 和硅光最看好的两个名字： 1. $SOI 今天涨了 7.05% 2. $TSEM 今天涨了 11.03% 而且这还只是一天。 像 tower 这类公司是光子领域 150 亿美元以上的大型代工厂。 Soitec 这类名字则是多十亿美元级别的基板公司。 市场已经开始重新给这些东西定价了。
英文原文
My top two picks for CPO & Silicon Photonics: 1. $SOI is up 7.05% 2. $TSEM is up 11.03% In just one day. Names like tower are large $15 Billion+ foundries for photonics. While names like Soitec are multi-billion dollar substrate companies. Markets really seem to like my higher conviction individual photonic names.
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作者认为 $SIVE 作为 NVIDIA 硅光子/CPO 架构中的激光器瓶颈供应商，有望成为下一个 $LITE。
$SIVE 现在已上涨 50%+，市值达到 1.9 亿美元（约 18 亿瑞典克朗）。 然而，我真心相信这可能是硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)领域的下一个 $LITE。 我持有该股票，因为我的个人牛市预期是市值 100 亿美元+。 因为 Sivers 处于由 $NVDA 主导的新一代光子架构的硅光子 CW DFB 激光器瓶颈位置。 这与 $COHR/$LITE 的 EML 激光器是当前光收发器瓶颈的情况类似。 他们已经是 Ayar、$POET（购买 $SIVE 激光器→先进封装进光学中介层）以及可能其他硅光子/CPO 玩家的激光供应商。 Win Semi 正在进行中的认证是最大的牛市因素之一，因为这使他们能够扩大产能。 时间会证明这个论点是否正确，但我个人认为这只股票被广泛忽视了。 这是我自己的个人论点，我不建议任何人跟随。 但如果你 DYOR（自己做研究），也许你会得出和我一样的结论：$SIVE 看起来是下一个 $LITE。 TLDR: InP 激光器是当前光子学的瓶颈，这从 $LITE 的估值可以看出。 $SIVE 看起来是即将到来的 CPO/硅光子学浪潮中的迷你 $LITE。 我个人在 $SIVE 建立了多头仓位，因为我相信他们是即将到来的由 $NVDA（借助 GTC 催化剂）推动的硅光子/CPO 架构变革的主要受益者之一。 对我来说，这个上行空间作为下一个可能的 $LITE 实在太诱人了。
英文原文
$SIVE is now up 50%+, to a $190 million USD MC (~1.8B SEK -> USD). However, I genuinely believe this could be the next $LITE for silicon photonics/CPO. And I’m holding shares, as my personal bull case scenario is $10 billion+. As Sivers sits in the silicon photonics CW DFB laser bottleneck of the next gen photonic architectures spearheaded by $NVDA. This is compared to how $COHR / $LITE EML lasers are the current optical transceiver bottleneck. They’re already the laser supplier to Ayar, $POET (buys $SIVE lasers -> advanced packaging into optical interposers), and likely other silicon photonics/cpo players The Win semi ongoing qualification is one of the biggest bull cases, as this allows them to scale up capacity. Time will tell if this thesis turns out to be correct but I personally think this name is widely undiscovered. This is my own personal thesis and I’m not recommending anyone to tag along. But if you DYOR, maybe you’ll come to the same conclusion I did that $SIVE looks like the next $LITE.
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把 TSEM 和 SIVE 作为新选择，同时把 NBIS 视为自己最看好的 neocloud 多头。
@Ricky_Macchiato $TSEM 和 $SIVE 是我最近新选出来的两个名字。 $NBIS 则是我在 neocloud 赛道里最看多的标的。
英文原文
@Ricky_Macchiato $TSEM and $SIVE are my two new choices. $NBIS is my #1 Neocloud sector long.
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Soitec 的基板选择在 5 天内上涨 44.3%，说明市场正在重新定价光子关键玩家。
已经过了 5 天。 我选的 Soitec <$SOI> 基板，面向硅光和 CPO，现在已经上涨超过 44.3%。 这是市场正在实时重估光子下一位关键玩家。 Soitec 今天又涨了 7.03%。 https://t.co/kHSRZpCmiF
英文原文
It’s been 5 days. My Soitec < $SOI > substrate pick for silicon photonics and CPO is now up over +44.3%. This is markets re-rating the next critical player for photonics, live. Soitec is now up another 7.03% today. https://t.co/kHSRZpCmiF
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分享本周新关注的3只股票，定位为硅光子学产业链细分标的
@MattReno264555 我个人新关注的是 Soitec ($SOI) 作为硅光子学衬底，以及 $SIVE 作为下一个 $LITE，用于CPO/硅光子学。还有 $TSEM 作为光子学领域的 $TSM。这是这周的分享。
英文原文
@MattReno264555 My personal new ones were Soitec ( $SOI ) for silicon photonics substrates and $SIVE as the next $LITE for CPO/Silicon photonics. As well as $TSEM as the $TSM for photonics This past week.
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宣布 AXTI 已突破 50 美元，称自己最早识别出它是 AI 光子建构的关键瓶颈。
$AXTI 现在已经超过 50 美元了。 我当时是第一个把它识别成 AI 建设里、光子领域的下一个重大瓶颈的人。 你听了吗，匿名者？ https://t.co/pPkFqZXmuC
英文原文
$AXTI is now above $50+. I was the first to identify it as the next major bottleneck for the AI buildout with photonics. Did you listen anon? https://t.co/pPkFqZXmuC
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明确表示 NBIS 是下一家 hyperscaler。
@inversorBetico 不是。我认为 $NBIS 就是下一家超大规模云厂商。
英文原文
@inversorBetico No. I think $NBIS is the next hyperscaler
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澄清自己一直看好 Nebius，只是它是自己的第一只 neocloud 选择。
@Viv_Kumar_ 还是 Nebius。我只是说，它是我第一只 neocloud 选择，也是我最喜欢的 neocloud 选择。 我对 Weebius 的信念非常高。
英文原文
@Viv_Kumar_ Still is Nebius. I’m just saying it was my first Neocloud pick and my favorite Neocloud pick. I have high conviction in Weebius
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作者认为$SIVE是CPO时代的迷你$LITE，当前$140M估值严重低估，上涨空间巨大。
我做多$SIVE，成本$140M。 我认为这是下一个被市场和机构忽视的$LITE。 $SIVE生产磷化铟(InP) CW DFB激光器。 最接近的类比是当前EML激光器瓶颈中的$LITE。 但不是向Innolight/Eoptolink供应当前光模块的光源。 他们向$POET Starlight、Ayar SuperNova供应激光器。 以及为$NVDA主导的未来CPO/硅光子(silicon photonics)架构中的其他厂商供货。 就我个人而言，当前估值完全没有道理。 $POET是$SIVE这类激光器的先进封装...但$POET的估值是其激光器制造商本身的11倍多？ 这感觉就像把一个更先进的$FN（估值约$200亿）封测厂定价为$4000亿，而$LITE的估值才$400亿。 所以现在$130M的情况下： - 你拥有一个类似迷你$LITE的激光器供应商，通过$POET向Marvell Celestial + 超大规模云厂商供货。 - 向Ayar（$NVDA、$INTC）供应激光器，虽然他们也与$LITE、住友、$MTSI等多源采购。 以及其他潜在的新兴供应商，比如他们曾在财报中提及的Lightmatter（如2023年Q2财报）。这点未经证实，但供应链BOM是保密的。 此外，就收入而言，他们预计“未来几年”管道收入$453M。 而且，他们通过WIN（Win Semi）进行产能扩张：“Win Semi foundry正在认证中，为Sivers的激光器设计进行批量生产。” Sivers感觉就像是硅光子/CPO时代的$LITE，拥有Celestial（通过$POET）、Ayar等实际快速增长客户，未来还会有更多。 去年我可能不会喜欢它，但就在3周前，他们成功将所有债务再融资为$12M可转换贷款（10.85%）和$5M定期贷款（12%），理清了债务。 总计$17M，这在美股市场感觉不算什么，而$AAOI每隔一周就在做$5亿ATM增发。 最重要的是，这是他们面向硅光子/光子的纯正InP激光器业务。 他们的激光雷达(Lidar)业务正在爬坡，预计产生$53-138M的收入。 下行风险： - 执行力（老生常谈） - 为扩大产能与$LITE等竞争而导致的稀释 - $NVDA刚给他们$40亿后，$LITE、$COHR在规模上的竞争 - CPO上量延迟 我完全不明白，$LWLG这家零收入的概念股与$TSEM在一起，估值怎会达到$10亿以上。 也不明白$POET怎会比他激光器供应商的价值高出约9-10倍。 而$SIVE，作为CPO/硅光子的迷你$LITE等价物，估值才$140M。 我确实认为这在机构中基本未被发掘，因为这是一家OMX Nordic交易所的不知名公司（类似于我在开始发布关于InP衬底瓶颈之前的小市值$AXTI）。 但我确实认为，随着Celestial和Ayar规模扩大，他们会获得很多机构关注。 特别是如果$POET和$SIVE获得其他客户认证的话。 如果CPO在未来超大规模云厂商架构中完全取代可插拔光模块。 Sivers，如果通过WIN Semi认证并成为NVIDIA、Marvell、Intel和Broadcom架构的多元采购激光器供应商，就可能被大幅重新定价。 就像$LITE今天从$16涨到$622一样。 这只是我分享的个人逻辑，DYOR/NFI（非投资建议）。 TLDR： InP激光器是光子学中当前的瓶颈，从$LITE的估值可见一斑。 $SIVE看起来像是即将到来的CPO/硅光子爬坡中的迷你$LITE。 我个人在$SIVE建了多头，因为我认为他们是$NVDA即将到来的硅光子/CPO架构变革（加上GTC催化剂）的主要受益者。 对我来说，这里的上涨空间作为下一个可能的$LITE实在太过诱人了。
英文原文
I’m long $SIVE at $140M. I believe this is the next $LITE that markets and institutions missed. $SIVE makes InP CW DFB lasers. Closest comparison is $LITE in the current EML laser bottleneck. But instead of supplying to Innolight/Eoptolink for current optical transceivers cycles. They supply the lasers to $POET Starlight, Ayar SuperNova. And others for the future CPO/silicon photonics architectures spearheaded by $NVDA. Current valuations make 0 sense to me personally. $POET is advanced packaging for $SIVE type lasers… But $POET commands worth 11x+ more than the company making the laser itself? It’s feels like valuing a more advanced $FN (~$20B) packaging at $400B when $LITE is valued at $40B. So now at $130m: - - You have a likely mini $LITE like laser supplier to Marvell Celestial + hyperscalers through $POET. - Laser supplier to Ayar ( $NVDA, $INTC ), though they do multi source with $LITE, Sumitomo, $MTSI. And other potential up and coming suppliers potentially like Lightmatter that they’ve name dropped (eg. Q2 2023 earnings). This is unconfirmed but supply chain BOM is confidential. On top, for revenue, they expected $453M "pipeline next few years”. And, they have capacity expansion through WIN: “Win Semi foundry qualification in progress for volume production from Laser designs from Sivers." Sivers feels the silicon photonics/CPO version of $LITE, with actual rapidly growing customers like Celestial through $POET, Ayar, with more to come. I wouldn’t have liked it last year, but just 3 weeks ago, they refinanced all their debt successfully to $12M convertible loan (10.85%) and a $5M term loan (12%), which cleans up debt. It’s $17m total, which feels like nothing to US markets when $AAOI is doing a $500m ATMs every other week. Best of all, this is their pure play inp laser segment for silicon/photonics + cpo. Their Lidar segment is ramping up and they have $53-138M projected revenue coming in. Downside risk: - execution (as always) - dilution to scale up capacity to compete with $LITE and others. - $LITE, $COHR competition on scale after $NVDA just gave them $4B - CPO ramp gets delayed. I have no clue how, $LWLG, a pre-revenue science project with $TSEM, is valued at $1B+ MC. Or how $POET, is worth ~9-10x more than its laser supplier. When $SIVE, the mini $LITE equivalent for CPO/Silicon photonics, is valued at $140M. I do believe this is largely undiscovered by institutions, since this is some random company in OMX Nordic Exchange (similar to micro $AXTI before I started posting about the inp substrate bottleneck). But I do think it will get a lot of institutional attention as Celestial and Ayar scale up. Especially if $POET and $SIVE gets qualified with other customers. If CPO completely replaces pluggable transceivers in the next generation of hyperscaler architectures. Sivers, with possible WIN Semi qualifcation and if they become the multi-source lasers for NVIDIA, Marvell, Intel, and Broadcom architectures, can be strongly rerated. Just as how $LITE did today going from $16 -> $622. This is just my personal thesis I'm sharing, DYOR/NFI. TLDR: InP Lasers are the current bottleneck in photonics as seen with $LITE valuations. $SIVE looks like the mini $LITE for the upcoming CPO/Silicon Photonics ramp. I personally took long position in $SIVE, as I believe they’re a large beneficiary of the upcoming silicon photonic/CPO architectural changes by $NVDA (with GTC cataylst). The upside here just way too compelling for me personally as the next possible $LITE.
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把 IQE 看作光子领域的 IREN 版，认为它拥有产能，只需要重组和向 AI / 光子转型。
$IQE 就是我在光子领域里的 $IREN 等价物。 它们有反应器和产能。而且也不是什么无人知晓的公司，因为它们本来就是 $LITE 的已知供应商。 它们只需要彻底摆脱历史包袱，重新梳理债务（可以通过台湾资产出售来处理），然后把重心转向 AI 光子化。
英文原文
$IQE is my $IREN equivalent for photonics. They have the reactors and capacity. And they’re not some unknown company as they’re a known $LITE supplier. They just need to completely restructure away from legacy drag, restructure debt from Taiwan asset sales, and pivot to photonics for AI.
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认为 AAOI 正在按 1 亿美元级 ATM 稀释，当前 100 美元附近有压力。
@theburiedcity $AAOI 正在做 2.5 亿美元的稀释，并在接近 100 美元的位置卖股。 上一轮 ATM 被吸收得非常快。 在这个价位附近大概率会有一些阻力，直到这轮 ATM 被填完。然后如果它们停止稀释……那就完全看执行了，我个人觉得上行空间会非常大。
英文原文
@theburiedcity $AAOI is diluting $250m and selling around the $100 mark. The last ATM got absorbed extremely quickly. Probably going to have some resistance around that level until the ATM gets filled up. Then if they stop diluting… sky is the limit depending on execution imo
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明确表达做空 IREN、做多 NBIS。
@BTCSuperCycle 做空 $IREN，做多 $NBIS
英文原文
@BTCSuperCycle Short $IREN, long $NBIS
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认为 SOI 以约 1.3 倍账面价值交易，但作为硅光 / CPO 准垄断者仍有很长上行。
@gussyat $SOI 现在大概是按 1.3 倍账面价值交易，基本像个虚拟的硅光 / CPO 准垄断公司。 我个人觉得它还有很长的上涨空间。
英文原文
@gussyat $SOI is trading at like 1.3x book value as a virtual silicon photonics/cpo monopoly. I personally think it has a long way to run.
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认为 MRVL 太大，更偏向把它看作 MSFT Maia ASIC 扩产受益，而不是光子故事。
@kingcoinmatt $MRVL 太大了。 如果要买，我会买它的 $MSFT Maia ASIC 扩产逻辑，而不是像 Celestial 那样的光子逻辑。
英文原文
@kingcoinmatt $MRVL is too big. I would buy them for $MSFT Maia ASIC ramp not photonics like Celestial.
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表示自己做空 LWLG，因为这个 ticker 老在自己的帖子下刷屏。
@themissinglinks 我个人做空了 $LWLG，因为这个 ticker 一直在我每条帖子下面刷屏。
英文原文
@themissinglinks I personally shorted $LWLG because this ticker keeps getting spammed under all my posts.
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看好 AEHR 接近触发 hyperscaler 需求拐点。
@soup19152116 我已经覆盖过 $AEHR 了，而且我现在是多头，因为我觉得他们快接近 $AAOI 那种超大规模云需求拐点了。 过去两三个月里有不同的订单流，我觉得挺有希望。
英文原文
@soup19152116 I've covered $AEHR already and I'm long since I do think they be close to hitting their $AAOI-type hyperscaler demand inflection point. There were streams of different orders past two to three months, think it's promising.
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认为买 Sumitomo 比买 AXT 更像是在降低弹性；AVGO 的光学故事也不如 ASIC 逻辑直接。
这就像买住友而不是 $AXTI。 你买的是一个大巨头，但对这个行业增长的直接暴露更低。一个可能年初至今涨 15%，另一个可能涨 300%。 把 $AVGO 当成光学相关故事去买，而它很大一部分增长其实来自 ASIC，也不是个好主意。不过作为长期多头，它本身还是很不错的。
英文原文
Same as going long on Sumitomo instead of $AXTI. You're buying a big giant for lower direct exposure to the sector growth. Once might be up 15% YTD, the other might be up 300%. Buying $AVGO for optical related stuff when a large portion of their growth comes from ASICs is not a great idea. But as a long itself, it's solid.
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认为 AAOI 短期会受 2.5 亿美元 ATM 压制，100 美元附近或有阻力，但长期不重要。
短期看，$AAOI 正在以 100 美元的价格做 2.5 亿美元稀释，所以在一段时间内可能不会明显高于这个价位。 因为他们就是在这个价格卖给公开市场。上一个 ATM 他们很快就吸收完了。 中长期其实没那么重要。 如果我切换成日内交易员的眼镜来看，要是它再跌一次到 80 美元区间，我个人会很乐意买。
英文原文
Short term, $AAOI is diluting $250m at $100 so probably won’t go too high above that number for awhile. Cause they’re selling it but the open market at that price. They tapped into their last ATM ASAP. Mid-Long term doesn’t really matter. If I put on my day trading glasses, if it drops one more time to the $80s, strong yes imo.
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用 AI 供应链映射的梗调侃 Meta 的业绩波动
你说得对，算法确实从 AI 供应链映射里学到了一些东西。 肥料暴涨 -> $META 牛油果 -> 抛售。
英文原文
@Shabach17 You’re right, algorithms have been taking some lessons from AI supply chain mapping. fertilizer spike -> $META avocados -> selloff.
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认为 Meta 的增长指引说明投入开始见效
他们给出的指引是同比增长约 33.5%（535 亿到 565 亿美元），而这还是一家市值 1.5 万亿美元以上的公司。 看起来扎克在 $META 上砸的钱，似乎确实开始起作用了。
英文原文
@mktoperative They guided ~33.5% y/y growth ($53.5B- $56.5B) as a $1.5T+ company. Think whatever Zuck is spending on with $META seems to be working.
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认为 Meta 这波回撤有点过头
你们觉得市场不知道 $META 的收入全来自卖广告吗？ 又不是种牛油果？ 过去一个月总共跌了 16.92%，其中这次又跌了 4%，我觉得有点过头了。
英文原文
Do you think markets know $META makes all their revenue from selling ads? Not farming avocados? -4% selloff for a total of -16.92% this past month is a bit too much. https://t.co/wMkcrMaIhX
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提示 AAOI 在 100 美元附近会有 ATM 压力
@scarfo_leo $AAOI 有一个 5 亿美元的 ATM，行权/发行价在 100 美元附近，那个价位大概会有 2.5 亿美元的卖压，持续不了太久。
英文原文
@scarfo_leo $AAOI has a $500m ATM at $100, probably going to be $250m selling pressure at that level for a tiny bit
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称赞 Soitec 是下一只衬底概念股
@realstockfox 我之前喊过 Soitec 会成为下一个衬底主题股，现在 $SOI 已经涨了 44%+。
英文原文
@realstockfox I did shoutout Soitech as the next upcoming substrate play and $SOI is now up 44%+ https://t.co/qsuIf3cjNd
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把 TSEM 当稳健复合器，把 AXTI 当高弹性标的
有 $TSEM 这种更稳的光子复合器。 然后还有我那匹打了类固醇、装了火箭发动机的赛马：$AXTI。 我的仓位已经涨了 550%+。 而 AXT 今天又涨了 10.38%。 $NVDA 的回报都被甩在后面了；几个月前把 AXT 识别为 InP 瓶颈，很多人因此实现了代际财富。
英文原文
There’s $TSEM, my safer photonics compounder. Then there’s my race horse on steroids, with a rocket ship attached: $AXTI. My positions are up over 550%+. And AXT is up another 10.38% today. $NVDA returns got left in the dust, as identifying AXT as the InP bottleneck few months ago was generational wealth to many.
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继续看好 Tower Semiconductor 作为稳健光子复合股
$TSEM 根本不在乎市场其他部分。 Tower Semi 是我最喜欢的光子标的之一，像更稳健版的 $TSM 式复合器。 这是 AI 新范式的一部分。 今天又涨了 5.8%。
英文原文
$TSEM does not concern itself with the rest of the market. Tower semi is one of my favorite photonic names, as a safer $TSM like compounder. For the new paradigm of AI. Up 5.8% today. https://t.co/UcH1K6C4UI
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认为 Reddit 的内幕卖出不构成噪音
@NegativeConvex 不，$RDDT 的内幕减持不算什么噪音。
英文原文
@NegativeConvex No, insider sales are noise for $RDDT. https://t.co/4szrTTanbF
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给 PayPay 研究者的简短结论：估值不便宜
谢谢，想顺手替大家节省一点研究 $PAYP 的时间；之所以感兴趣，是因为我在日本也听过这个名字。 也许有一天它会在日本变得像 $HOOD 一样，但按现在的指标看，估值已经相当高了。所以我自己最后选择了放弃，不过希望这能给其他研究它的人提供一个不错的 TL;DR / 起点。
英文原文
Thanks, thought I'd save others some time with $PAYP, got interested since I've heard of the name before in Japan. Maybe it ends up like $HOOD one day in Japan, but already pretty richly valued from metrics. So I personally ended up passing, but hope it's a good TLDR/starting point for others researching.