个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2373 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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拆解 PayPay IPO 的基本面与估值
PayPay（$PAYP）是最新上市的公司。 如果你在想，要不要冲一下这家日本的“$PYPL / WeChat”公司，市值 118 亿美元？ 那我们来看看。 如果你去过日本，你就会知道 PayPay 到处都是。 它是日本版超级 App，涵盖支付、投资和银行业务。 下面拆一下： 2025 财年指标： 收入：2991 亿日元（约 19 亿美元） 增速：约 26.3% 净利润（GAAP）：392 亿日元（约 2.48 亿美元） 市盈率：约 44 倍 股权薪酬：几乎为 0，不像美国的 $SNAP 和 $DUOL。 看资产负债表： 合并会计让 $PAYP 的账目非常难读。 4.85 万亿日元（约 323 亿美元）的负债或客户存款被混在资产里。 但上市前净负债大约是 -4.8 亿美元，上市募资后约 4.96 亿美元。 所以资产负债表大致是净现金略偏正，但整体中性。 另外提醒一下：软银是大股东，锁定期到 2026 年 9 月才到期。 按 118 亿美元估值，它大约是 5.8 倍 PS，对一家以 26% 增速、利润率还在扩张、且几乎没有 SBC 的日本超级 App 来说，这算是正常估值，不算特别便宜，也不算离谱。 TL;DR：总体上看，$PAYP 按 118 亿美元估值并不差。 后面可能会有 IPO 热度，再叠加低流通盘效应；但如果股价再涨很多，我不会追。 也许它会像 $HOOD 一样，靠 TAM 扩张慢慢抬估值。 不过几个月后软银那类类似 ATM 的压制也会出现。 但眼下还有更便宜的错价机会，比如 $RDDT。
英文原文
PayPay ( $PAYP ) is the newest IPO. If you're wondering if you should fomo in the $PYPL / WeChat of Japan at an $11.8B MC? Let's find out. If you've ever been to Japan: PayPay is everywhere. It's the Japanese SuperApp for payments, investing, and banking. Here's a breakdown: FY 2025 metrics: Revenue: ¥299.1 billion (~$1.9 billion) Growth Rate: ~26.3% Net Income (GAAP): ¥39.2 billion (~$248 million) P/E: ~44x Stock Base Compensation: Virtually 0, unlike $SNAP and $DUOL in the US. If we look at balance sheet: Consolidated accounting makes things a nightmare when you see $PAYP ¥4.85 Trillion (~$32.3 Billion) in liabilities or customer deposits mixed into assets. But pre-IPO net debt is approximately -$480M, and post-IPO proceeds of ~$496M. So balance sheet looks roughly net cash slightly positive but neutral. Also PSA: Softbank is the majority owner, lockup expires September 2026. At $11B, it's roughly ~5.8x P/S and very profitable for a Japanese superapp growing at 26% with expanding margins and zero SBC. By US standards, this is normally valued, not exactly a screaming buy. TLDR: In general, $PAYP is not a terrible long at $11.8B. Might get some IPO hype + mixed with low float dynamics, but would not chase if it ends up a lot higher. Maybe there's some TAM expansion like $HOOD that prices it up over time. But Softbank ATM-like overhang in a few months. But there's a lot better mispriced choices out there like $RDDT right now.
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强调自己不受研究机构立场约束
和其他在研究机构或基金工作的人相比，我是独立的。 所以我可以直说：有人花几百万去把 $PLTR 这种国防承包商，和给小企业写博客的辅助工具硬做比较，我当然有资格吐槽。 更妙的是，跟着他的人也在市场里继续亏更多钱。
英文原文
I’m independent compared to others who work at research firms or funds. So I’m allowed to speak my mind about someone who charges millions to compare $PLTR, a defense contractor, with small business blogging helpers. Best of all, the following him are also losing more money on top in the market.
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讽刺 Burry 订阅费和 PLTR/ADBE 的比较
我是真挺震惊的： 人们居然每年合计给 Michael Burry 付 1000 万美元以上的订阅费， 就为了在 $PLTR 和 $ADBE 上一起亏钱。 这还不算他们自己每年 400 多美元的订阅费。 当初他们把 HubSpot 这种小企业博客工具的估值，拿去和 Palantir 那套用于入侵伊朗和委内瑞拉的黑箱 AI 程序做比较时，就已经露出苗头了。 当他们觉得有必要在 X 上把任何人都拉黑，因为自己的论点经不起公开辩论时…… 也许你跟错人了？
英文原文
I’m genuinely impressed: People are collectively paying Michael Burry $10 million + in yearly subscription fees. Just to lose money on both $PLTR and $ADBE. On top of their $400+ yearly sub fee. There were signs when they tried comparing Hubspot small business blogging valuations. To Palantir’s black box AI programs used to invade Iran and Venezuela. When they feel the need to block anyone on X because their arguments can’t hold up to public debate… Maybe you’re following the wrong person?
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提醒别在 AXT 底部投降
@Gubloinvestor 下次别在 $AXTI 见底的时候就直接投降了。
英文原文
@Gubloinvestor maybe don't capitulate at the bottom with $AXTI next time
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认为 LWLG 太投机，更偏好 Soitec
@demarscrypto 对我来说，$LWLG 太投机了，哪怕还有 $TSEM 的整合因素。 和 Soitec 这类名字相比，我发现后者的风险回报更好一些，而它们的市值区间也差不多（约 7 亿到 20 亿美元）。
英文原文
@demarscrypto $LWLG too speculative for me given MC, even with $TSEM integration. Found better risk reward to be with names like Soitec, which share similar MCs range ($700m-$2B range).
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回顾别人当年也拿 CEO 卖股说 AXT 不行
@FossilWhisperer 这些评论当年 $AXTI 还在 12 美元时我就听过。 “CEO 卖个不停，这说明他对业务没信心。” “现在盘前已经跌了 20%，经典走势。” 结果时间一拉长，股价直接翻了四倍。
英文原文
@FossilWhisperer These were the same comments back when $AXTI was $12 by the way. "the CEO can't stop selling, this is signaling lack of faith in the business" "it’s down 20% pre-market right now. classic." Fast forward, it's quadrupled in price. https://t.co/O1yZtR9etO
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短期会有更好的买点，但长期都看涨
@Jacktecau990 短期里总会有更好的买点，比如 $SOI、$AAOI 或 $AXTI。 但从长期看，我预计它们都会上涨，因为光子会成为 AI 的新架构范式。
英文原文
@Jacktecau990 There's always going to be better buying short term opportunities like with $SOI, $AAOI, or $AXTI. But long term I expect them all to go up as photonics becomes the new architectural paradigm for AI.
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用 NOL 税盾解释 Reddit 看起来被低估
$RDDT 过去大部分时间都处于亏损状态，并积累了： ~65 亿美元的美国联邦净经营亏损结转（NOL）。 ~44 亿美元的美国州级 NOL。 ~49 亿美元的英国 NOL。 ~10 亿美元的美国联邦研发税收抵免。 如果你按 Reddit 2025 年不考虑 NOL 的净利润来算，大概会是 4.19 亿美元。 但加上亏损结转后，它会被人为抬到大约 5.3 亿美元。 我之前一直在说，即便盈利因为这些 NOL 库存而被人为放大（而且 Reddit 到目前为止只用了那 65 亿美元中的一小部分），它依然非常便宜，因为它的 GAAP 盈利能力实在太强了。
英文原文
So $RDDT operated at a loss for most of time, and carried: ~$6.5 billion in U.S. federal NOL carryforwards. ~$4.4 billion in U.S. state NOL carryforwards. ~$4.9 billion in U.K. NOL carryforwards. ~$1.0 billion in U.S. federal research tax credits. If you're looking at Reddit 2025 net income without NOLs, it would be roughly: $419M. But with loss carry forwards, it gets artificially inflated to ~$530m. I was saying even if earnings were artificially inflated from NOL stockpiles (and Reddit only used a fraction of that $6.5B so far) -> it's still extremely undervalued given how gaap profitable they are
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猜测 AAOI 可能又在 100 美元附近卖 2.5 亿
这种事总会发生。我的猜测是，他们大概又会在 100 美元附近卖出 2.5 亿美元的股份，跟之前那次 ATM 类似。 短期偏空，但长期大概率还是增厚，除非 $AAOI 像之前那样在超出实际执行所需的情况下反复用 ATM。 我当时就是为这点对 $AAOI 管理层很不满，因为现在不确定性又多了；他们本来从一开始就应该把需要多少钱说清楚。
英文原文
It happens. My guess is they’re probably selling $250m worth around $100 again like their previous ATM. Short term bearish, long term likely accretive unless $AAOI repeat use ATM beyond what they actually need to execute. That was the overhang I was mad with $AAOI management about, because now there’s more uncertainty given they should have just announced what they needed from the start.
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仍把 Reddit 当核心多头，只是对成本线以下有点不爽
@RB1Patrick 是的，$RDDT 是我核心多头之一，成本大概在 137 美元附近。 我只是很不爽它跌到我的成本线下面了。
英文原文
@RB1Patrick Yes $RDDT is one of my core longs around $137. I’m just upset it went below my cost average.
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短期仍偏空 AAOI，但长期看更像被低估
通常长期持股、把它忘掉会更好。因为你永远不知道第二天会不会突然来一个超大客户合作。 不过，短期看这还是偏空的，因为 $AAOI 如果新的 2.5 亿美元 ATM 真成功了，心理压力会很重，甚至有点像 $POET 那样继续稀释。 但如果你是 28 美元买入，那在 100 美元附近每天 -20% 到 +20% 的波动，其实就不太需要在意了。
英文原文
It’s usually better to just hold stocks long term and forget about it. As you never know if there’s going to be a surprise hyperscaler deal the next day. However, this is net bearish near term with a PTSD overhang that $AAOI pulls a $POET and keeps diluting if the new $250m atm is successful. But if you bought at $28, you wouldn’t need to care about to short term -20% to 20% day to day changes happening around $100
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不该把 Reddit 和高稀释公司混为一谈
@MarkosAAIG 不能把 $RDDT 这种全球最受欢迎的平台之一，和那些 SBC 永无止境的 $SNAP 或 $DUOL 相提并论。 Reddit 去年的 GAAP 净利润是 5.3 亿美元（已经包含 SBC），而 Snapchat 的稀释性要强得多。
英文原文
@MarkosAAIG Would not compare one of the most popular platforms in the world $RDDT to the likes of endless SBC $SNAP or $DUOL. GAAP net income for Reddit last year was $530 million (including SBC), while Snapchat is heavily dilutive.
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认为 Reddit 可能还会横盘一阵再突然上冲
@jpainefrommaine 对，大致就是这样。 如果 $RDDT 接下来一个月还在 120 到 150 美元之间横着走，我一点都不会惊讶；等大家都投降之后，它又突然冲到 200 美元以上。
英文原文
@jpainefrommaine Yeah basically. I would not be surprised if $RDDT just sat around $120-$150 for another month, then when everyone capitulates it randomly goes to $200+
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评论$AAOI将ATM规模扩至5亿美元，认为市场已吸收首轮卖压，但对过度ATM融资模式整体看空。
$AAOI提交了额外2.5亿美元的市价股票发行协议(ATM)，将总额提升至5亿美元。积极的信号是：$AAOI已完成其首个ATM。市场吸收了2.5亿美元的卖压（可能在股价涨至120美元前卖出了约1亿美元），但股价仍然上涨。修正案显示，截至2026年3月12日，根据销售协议已出售2,476,307股，获得总收益约2.49999983亿美元。然而，当涉及像$IREN或$POET这样公司的过度ATM时，我持极度看空态度，这并非针对$AAOI。如果5亿美元用于产能扩张，相比其他公司60亿美元的ATM，可能更有增值空间，人们可以等待结果。尽管如此，我对此并不满意，如果他们需要5亿美元，一开始就应该这么做。
英文原文
$AAOI files for another $250 million USD ATM, upping the amount to $500 million. The positive note is: $AAOI has already finished their first ATM. Markets absorbed $250 million in selling pressure (likely ~$100 before the stock went to $120) and the stock increased anyway. “The amendment states that 2,476,307 shares have been sold for gross proceeds of approximately $249,999,983 under the sales agreement as of March 12, 2026” However, I’m extremely bearish when it comes to excessive ATMs for any company like $IREN or $POET, and it’s not inclusive to $AAOI. $500 million for capacity expansion is likely accretive compared to other $6 billion ATMs if people want to wait it out. That being said, not happy about it and if they needed $500 million, should have done it from the start.
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吐槽把 2.5 亿 ATM 直接抬到 5 亿的时机太差
@MichaelCla20642 把 ATM 从 2.5 亿直接抬到 5 亿美元，这时机实在糟透了。 他们本来应该在那笔 2 亿美元的超大客户订单之后立刻这么做。 不过，第一轮 2.5 亿已经做完这一点倒是偏多。
英文原文
@MichaelCla20642 Absolutely atrocious timing for to raise $250m -> $500M ATM. Should have been straight after the $200m hyperscaler deal. The fact they finished their first $250M ATM is bullish though
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认为 Reddit 被明显低估
$RDDT 现在已经有点离谱了。 看起来完全被错定价了。过去几个月已经跌了 40%。 如果把结转亏损剔除掉，它的净利润率约等于收入的 28%，这已经相当夸张。 而且它未来收入还在以 50%+ 同比增长，前面一年更是 70%+ 同比增长。 如果你看过 $META，就知道用户变现空间能有多大。Reddit 的变现上限非常高。 它在 IPO 之后其实已经去风险了，因为 Reddit 现在是市场上增长最快、利润率最高的公司之一。 有一天如果它像 $CRCL 财报后那样突然暴涨，我们会回头发现，原来它当时只有 240 亿美元市值。
英文原文
$RDDT is getting ridiculous. Looks completely mispriced. Now down 40% over the past few months. If you strip out carry-forward losses, their net profit is ~28% of revenue, which is absolutely enormous. And they’re growing forward revenues 50%+ Y/Y after 70%+ Y/Y growth. If you ever look at $META, you know how much revenue can be optimized/user. There’s an incredibly high ceiling for monetization with Reddit. It’s already derisked since IPO since Reddit is now one of the fastest growing and highest margin companies in the market. One day if it pulls a $CRCL post earnings, we’ll look back and wonder how this was valued at $24 billion MC.
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继续看好 AAOI，认为市场忽略其产能与链路价值
$AAOI 没有发生什么新变化，看起来反而是个买入机会。 我同意 Rosenblatt 分析师的说法： “这家公司不到 80 亿美元的市值，和它 2027 年可能达到 40 亿美元的收入相比，实在太低了。” 分析师可以对执行能力保持谨慎，而产能扩张从一开始就是核心问题。 我不觉得这里有什么新东西，这类争论只会一直持续到他们真正交付为止。 超大客户需求不是问题。 $GOOGL 和 $AVGO 也都发出了可插拔收发器生命周期延长的信号，但由于 $AAOI 覆盖了从激光到设计再到组装的整条供应链，它拥有很多人忽略的可选性。
英文原文
Nothings changed with $AAOI and it looks like a buying opportunity. I’d side with Rosenblatt analysts here where “The company’s sub-$8B market cap is too low when its 2027 revenue potential is $4B”. Analysts can be bearish on execution, and scaling capacity was always the focal question. Don’t think anything’s new around here and this will always be debated until they actually deliver. Hyperscaler demand is not a question. $GOOGL and $AVGO also signaled pluggable transceiver life extensions, but since $AAOI covers the supply chain from laser to design to assembly, they can have optionality that most people miss
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认为 Soitec 仍有很大上行空间
Soitec（$SOI / $SLOIF）现在已经涨了 45.58%。 考虑到它在硅光和 CPO 架构中的衬底级垄断，这只票离天花板还远得很。
英文原文
Soitec ( $SOI / $SLOIF ) is now up 45.58%. This has a long way to go given their substrate-level monopoly over the silicon photonics and CPO architectures. https://t.co/P1hDh8UL9q
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认为 upstream 供应商未必都已被定价
“都已经被定价了。” 但与此同时，$TSEM 年初至今还在 -1.89%。 很多散户其实比机构更早动手。 $AXTI 就是最好的例子——它在过去三个月里翻了 4 倍。 对于像 $SOI 和 $TSEM 这种利基上游供应商，我还是不太相信“已经定价”这个说法；但对 $LITE 和 $COHR，我大概率会认同。
英文原文
“Priced in”. Meanwhile $TSEM is chilling at -1.89% YTD. Lot of retail are earlier than institutions. $AXTI was the perfect example before it went up 4x in the past three months. Don’t quite think so with niche upstream suppliers like $SOI and $TSEM but likely yes to $LITE and $COHR
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认为诺和诺德撤诉并合作 HIMS 让很多人措手不及
@alc2022 这事说得通，不过 $NVO 撤诉并转而和 $HIMS 合作，对大多数人来说确实是个意外。 这一下明显打了很多人一个措手不及，尤其是那些没回补、还以为 $HIMS 会完蛋的做空者。
英文原文
@alc2022 Makes sense though given $NVO dropping the lawsuit and partnering with $HIMS was a surprise to majority of people. Definitely caught a lot of people off guard, especially short sellers that didn’t cover and thought $HIMS was going under
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认为 TSEM 比 TSM 更纯粹受益于光子起量
@zephyr_z9 没错，但和 $TSM 相比，$TSEM 对光子起量的纯度更高，而且估值只有它的 1/100。 可以说，这也意味着它有更快重估的潜力。
英文原文
@zephyr_z9 True, but $TSEM is more pure play to photonics ramp than $TSM, and at 1/100th the valuation. Arguably leads to faster re-rating potential
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Huberman 点名 HIMS，进一步强化多头叙事
斯坦福神经科学家 Andrew Huberman，也是健康领域最有影响力的人物之一，刚刚公开点名了 $HIMS。 他还说，在一个非常现实的情景下，它有望“腾飞”。 不是每天都能看到这种“行走的医学广告牌”隐性在给 $HIMS 站台做多。 我很好奇，那些还在做空 41%+ 流通盘的人到底在想什么？
英文原文
Andrew Huberman, the Stanford neuroscientist and one biggest voices in the health, just spotlighted $HIMS. And said it was set to “soar” in a very realistic scenario. Not everyday do you have the walking billboard of medicine implicitly pitching $HIMS as a long. Curious what short sellers were thinking selling 41%+ of the float short?
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等待财报看 openclaw 的消费需求能否拉动收入
@Andres17G 我还拿着仓位，等财报电话会议看看 openclaw 的消费端需求能不能把他们的总收入往上带一带。
英文原文
@Andres17G I’m still sitting on positions, waiting for earnings call to see if consumer demand segment from openclaw brings up their overall revenue
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认为 Soitec 的重估空间比别的名字更大
@zzzpw4a 分散投资当然能降低风险。 集中配置通常更容易拿到更高回报。 在我看来，$SOI 由于起点更低，重估空间还更大。
英文原文
@zzzpw4a Diversification is always good for lower risk. Concentration is better for higher returns. IMO $SOI has more room to be re-rated given its starting point.
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感谢媒体覆盖 Soitec，并确认自己的核心论点
这次终于感谢 MarketScreener 对 $SOI 的真实报道。 文章写道： “在专门讨论 Soitec 的帖子里，作者提出了几个论点。他认为，该集团可能受益于 CPO（共封装光学）的发展，而 CPO 是为伴随人工智能和数据中心崛起而设计的一种光子架构。根据他的说法，Soitec 在该技术所用的某些 SOI 衬底上拥有近乎垄断的地位，如果光子技术被大规模采用，这一优势可能变得具有战略意义。该投资者还提到，他认为估值水平偏低，并相信到 2027 年，市场可能会开始提前布局一个对光子技术有前景的周期。” 这其实就是我原来的 thesis，没有多余修饰。 上一次 FT 和 Bloomberg 报道我的 $RPI 论点时，他们莫名其妙给贴上“meme stock”的标签，还硬加了不少我根本没说过的话，直接带来负面情绪。 不过话说回来： $SOI 基本上是 CPO 衬底层上的虚拟垄断。 未来一两年我会继续持有，因为我预计它会成为 $NVDA 主导的下一轮架构起量中的最大受益者。
英文原文
Thank you MarketScreener for actual coverage of $SOI this time. The article writes: “In the post dedicated to Soitec, the author puts forward several arguments. He believes that the group could benefit from the development of CPO (co-packaged optics), a photonic architecture designed to accompany the rise of artificial intelligence and data centers. According to him, Soitec would have a quasi-monopolistic position on certain SOI substrates used in this technology, an advantage that could become strategic if photonics is adopted on a large scale. The investor also mentions a valuation level that he considers low and believes that the market could begin to position itself ahead of a promising cycle for photonics by 2027” This was exactly the thesis, no extra fluff. Last time media from FT and Bloomberg covered my thesis on $RPI, they labeled it a “meme-stock” out of nowhere. With many outlets straight up adding words never stated, which triggered negative sentiment. That being said: $SOI is a virtual monopoly over the substrate layer for CPO. I plan to hold my positions over the next year or two, as I expect it to be the largest beneficiary of the upcoming architectural ramp spearheaded by $NVDA.
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认为方向性做空已被可转债套利部分对冲
@r700cancer 大多数都是方向性做空，已经算进可转债套利里了。 而且利用率也有 80%。
英文原文
@r700cancer Most are directional shorts, factored in the convertible arbitrage. 80% utilized too. https://t.co/Mxj1QOsQny
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LWLG虽与TSEM整合重要，但从零收入和投机角度看风险较高
我已经研究过$LWLG了。对我个人来说，没有披露任何财务条款，而且这只是一个整合合作关系。所以从零收入角度来看太投机了，像Soitec这样的公司已经通过供应链把产品卖给$NVDA，价值也没比这高多少。但人们可以自由承担这个风险。不过话说回来，$TSEM的整合对他们的公司来说是非常重要的。
英文原文
Already looked into $LWLG. For me personally, there’s no disclosed financial terms and it’s an integration partnership. So too speculative off zero revenue, companies like Soitec already pass through supply to $NVDA and aren’t worth that much more. But people are free to take that risk. That being said the $TSEM integration is extremely material for their company.
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从基本面角度看 HIMS，但空头挤压风险很高
我一直想从基本面角度聊 $HIMS。 但有一点必须强调： $HIMS 的方向性空头现在像被困住了。 股价已经涨了 64.15%，到 26.5 美元了（虽然仍比 70 多美元的高点低）。 与此同时，空头持仓却增加到了创纪录的 41.6%。 这可能会形成剧烈的反馈回路，因为空头会越来越浮亏。 不过，这一切都取决于股价能否继续被买盘和基本面改善推高；只有这样，他们才会被迫平仓。 否则如果价格横盘，他们可以在很长时间里继续维持空头头寸（借券成本也低），然后慢慢回补。 话虽如此，我个人还是在场，挺期待看看 $HIMS 能交出什么： 一方面是最近类似 $META 的全球并购扩张； 另一方面是类似 $HOOD 的交叉销售潜在收入机会。 随着 $HIMS 在 $NVO 意外合作之后基本面快速改善，我个人真的觉得它有机会创造历史。
英文原文
I try to talk about $HIMS from a fundamental standpoint. But this cannot be understated: $HIMS directional shorts look trapped. The stock price is now up 64.15% to $26.5 (still down from highs of $70s). While short interest increased to record highs of 41.6%. There may be a violent feedback loop as short positions go more underwater. However; this is contingent on the underlying stock going up from buying pressure and increasing fundamentals. In order for their positions get liquidated. Otherwise, if prices stagnates, they can leave their short sales in for extended periods of time (low borrow rate) and slowly buy to cover. That being said, I'm personally along for the ride and looking forward to seeing what $HIMS can deliver: Both from their recent $META-like global acquisitions spree + $HOOD-like cross selling latent revenue opportunities. With $HIMS rapidly improving fundamentals, from the surprise $NVO partnership: I personally see a real opportunity for $HIMS to make history.
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认为 TSEM 可能重估到 350 亿美元市值
@PhotonCap 哦对，我很喜欢 $TSEM。 我觉得它有机会重估到 350 亿美元市值，大概是现在的 2.5 倍。 感觉只是时间问题，也许再过一年半左右？
英文原文
@PhotonCap Oh yeah I like $TSEM. I think it could get rerated to $35B MC which is like 2.5x from here. Feels like a matter of time, maybe another year and a half?
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更喜欢 SOI 的弹性，但也看好 TSEM 的去风险化
@AtlasShrug1 我也更偏好 $SOI，因为它的上行空间更大。 不过，$TSEM 体量更大，而且我觉得它因为产能积压和 $NVDA 的双重支撑，已经明显去风险了。 而且我也看到它未来两年会强劲复合增长，所以就在这个位置做多了。
英文原文
@AtlasShrug1 I prefer $SOI as well, much higher upside. However, $TSEM is much larger player but I see it being very de-risked from both backlogged capacity + $NVDA. And I do see this strongly compounding over the next two years so I went long around here.