· 个股论点
涉及标的： $META
不明白为什么 FinX 对 $META 如此看空。他们给出的指引是 535 亿 -565 亿美元，高端意味着约 33.5% 的同比增长。这太疯狂了。人们曾引用 2026 年资本支出(Capex)指引 1150 亿 -1350 亿美元作为看空理由，而估算值约为 1100 亿美元。$META 即使在 1 万亿美元估值下，也再次像初创公司一样增长。很明显，无论资本支出花在哪里，都转化为了营收和未来自由现金流(FCF)的投资回报率，而非投入无底洞。我不惊讶于看到 Meta 在未来几周达到 800 美元以上。上次 BBB 财报（尽管同比增长 26% 并带来 100 多亿美元 FCF）纯粹是表面现象。而同样的 $META 叙事今天仍在被重复。当世界上有一半的人每天使用一家公司时，也许是时候重新思考你的头寸并做多(long)了。
Not sure why FinX is so bearish on $META. They’re guiding $53.5B – $56.5B.High end is ~33.5% y/y growth. This is insane. People were citing 2026 Capex Guide: $115B – $135B as a bear case Where est. ~$110B $META is growing like a startup again even at a $1T valuation. It’s clear wherever capex spend is going, it’s delivered in revenue and future FCF ROI, not going into a black hole. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Meta at $800+ in the upcoming weeks. This was pure optics last time around with BBB earnings (even though they grew 26% Y/Y and delivered $10B+ FCF). And that same $META narrative is still being parroted today. When you have half of the world using a company daily, maybe it’s time to rethink your position and go long.