个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2373 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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认为住友太大且不是纯标的。
@SlumberMD 住友太大了，而且也不是纯标的。
英文原文
@SlumberMD Sumitomo is too large of a company and not pure play.
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半开玩笑说自己的光子股每个月都涨几百个百分点，AXTI 也快 1000% 回报了。
@__visionxry__ 是啊，不知道为什么我那些光子股都在每个月涨几百个百分点。 $AXTI 马上就要做到 1000% 回报了。
英文原文
@__visionxry__ Yeah not sure why all my photonics picks are going up hundreds of percent a month. $AXTI gonna be 1000% return soon
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$SIVE激光供应商市值仅3亿，却对标百亿级$LITE，上涨空间巨大
$SIVE 正在重演我的 $AXTI 论点第十版吗？ 现在已上涨三倍。 说真的，市场怎么会错过这个？ -> 作为 Jabil 的激光供应商……用于当前超级周期中的 1.6T 可插拔光收发器。 -> 作为 Ayar / $MRVL Celestial 的激光供应商……用于即将到来的 CPO 超级周期。 从 $MTSI 到 $LITE，你们所有的激光供应商都是 170-450 亿美元的公司。 $SIVE？ 现在市值只有约 3.1 亿美元。 高确信度做多。
英文原文
$SIVE is starting to play out like my $AXTI thesis round 10? Up triple digits now. Really not sure how markets missed this one tbh? -> Laser supplier to Jabil… for 1.6T pluggable transceivers in the current supercycle. -> Laser supplier to Ayar / $MRVL celestial for CPO, in the upcoming supercycle. Literally all your laser suppliers from $MTSI to $LITE are $17-45B companies. $SIVE? Now only at ~$310M. High conviction long.
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说 VNP 年初至今涨 62%，现在是选股者市场。
@finlithium $VNP 年初至今涨 62%？现在就是一个个股选手的市场，不是每个名字在大盘跌的时候都能是绿色。 你得挑赢家，而不是去做多整个板块。
英文原文
@finlithium $VNP is up 62% YTD? It's an individual stock picker's market, not every name is green while the market is falling. Need to choose the winners rather than going long on the broader sectors.
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认为还有很多好机会，SMCI、AAOI、AEHR 等都不错。
@DegnFarmer 哦我在看。市场上现在还有很多不错的机会，比如 $SMCI 18.5 美元、$AAOI 86 美元、$AEHR 等等。
英文原文
@DegnFarmer Oh I am. There's a ton of good opportunities ON, $SMCI at $18.5, $AAOI at $86, $AEHR, etc.
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推荐在当前价位买入AAOI和SIVE，认为估值有吸引力
$AAOI 和 $SIVE 目前估值都极具吸引力，我个人会在这两个价位买入。
英文原文
@Jornka329996 Both $AAOI and $SIVE are extremely compelling valuations right now and id personally buy both at these levels
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建议用低 IV 的 JETS 和航空 ETF 对冲油价冲击。
@orrdavid 我会做多 $JETS 和航空 ETF，而不是单个名字，因为它们 IV 更低。 年初至今跌了 15%，隐含波动率很低，大概 28-30，2028 年合约都很低，而且它们通常和油价走势相反，正如你提到的。
英文原文
@orrdavid Long $JETS and airliner ETFs for lower IV over individual names. Down 15% YTD, very low IV ~28-30 2028, moves inverse to oil as you’ve mentioned.
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Sivers以2.5亿美元估值复制LITE/COHR模式，成为CPO/ELS时代的光源核心供应商，被严重低估。
估值约2.5亿美元的$SIVE|$SIVEF看起来是光通信半导体市场中结构性错误定价最严重的标的之一。 $LITE和$COHR目前拥有450亿美元以上的估值，主要因为它们控制了外部腔体激光器(EML)和垂直腔面发射激光器(VCSEL)的出货——这些器件流向-> InnoLight和Eoptolink，用于当前可插拔光收发器(supercycle)。 我会一直强调这个观点，直到市场理解： Sivers已经为下一个技术范式复制了这一高度盈利的Merchant Supplier（商业代工）模式： -> 共封装光学(CPO)和外部光源(ELS)。 同时还有： -> 激光器，某大型制造商如Jabil正在用于当前的1.6T升级周期。 Sivers预见到架构正在从EML转型，并成为连续波(CW)激光器的纯Play供应商。 当前周期（可插拔光模块）：LITE/COHR供应EML -> InnoLight/Eoptolink制造模块 -> $GOOGL、$META、$MSFT、$AMZN购买。 下一个周期（CPO/ELS）：Sivers供应CW DFB激光器 -> $POET、Ayar Labs -> 流向超大规模数据中心商如$AMZN、$META、$MSFT等。 但与建设大型晶圆厂、承担良率/产能爬坡风险不同： 他们转型为无晶圆厂模式，通过Win Semi外包生产大批量CW激光器，有效降低了规模扩张风险。 那为什么在光电子supercycle期间估值只有2.5亿美元？ 我的观点： 1. 没人知道这家公司。 2. 许多基金的投资限制阻止它们购买瑞典的小盘股。 然而，当你开始关注超大规模数据中心光供应链中那些不知名的上游标的时： 光源领域最顶层的公司是$SIVE。 一家2.5亿美元的小公司，置身于$MTSI、$LITE、$COHR、住友电工以及百亿至数百亿美元市值的现有巨头之间。 再说一遍…… 一家2.5亿美元的公司： 为Jabil的1.6T LRO光收发器模块提供核心光源。 Jabil是巨头。 同时还为Ayar、$POET、Enablence/$ONET以及许多其他名字（尚未公开披露）提供多元化供应。 $SIVE已成功打入超大规模数据中心商的供应链，成为未来光电子架构的核心光源供应商。 相对于未来市场空间扩张和产能爬坡来看，估值被严重低估了。
英文原文
< $SIVE | $SIVEF > at a ~$250M valuation looks like one of the most severe structural mispricing in the optical semi market. $LITE and $COHR, have $45B+ valuations today: Largely because of their control over EMLs and VCSELs that they ship to -> InnoLight and Eoptolink. For current pluggable transceiver supercycles. I will keep hammering this home until markets understand: Sivers has replicated this exact, highly lucrative merchant-supplier model for the next paradigm: -> CPO and ELS. And also: -> Lasers that a massive manufacturer like Jabil is using for the current 1.6T upgrade cycle. Sivers saw architectures shifting away from EML and became the pure play supplier for CW. Current Cycle (Pluggables): LITE/COHR supply EML -> InnoLight/Eoptolink build modules -> $GOOGL, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN buy them. Next Cycle (CPO / ELS): Sivers supplies CW DFB -> $POET, Ayar Labs -> flows to hyperscalers like $AMZN, $META, $MSFT and others. However, instead of building up mega fabs with yield/capacity ramp risk: They transitioned to an outsourced, fabless model for high-volume CW Lasers with Win Semi and effectively de-risked scaling. So why does it have a $250M valuation during the photonics supercycle? My opinion: 1. Nobody knows about it yet. 2. Many fund mandates prevents them from buying small caps in Sweden However, when you start looking at obscure upstream names in hyperscaler light supply chain: At the top for the light source sits $SIVE. A small $250M company among $MTSI, $LITE, $COHR, Sumitomo and the $10B-$40B+ incumbents. Again... A $250M company: Powers Jabil's 1.6T LRO optical transceivers modules. Jabil is massive. As well as Ayar, $POET, Enablence/ $ONET and many other names now (that are not disclosed) for diversification. $SIVE found their way to scale as the lightsource of hyperscaler supply chains for future photonic architectures. And looks incredibly undervalued, relative to forward TAM expansion and ramp.
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认为 SMCI 光学业务很差，但按约 120 亿美元市值看，业务本身仍可能被低估。
@afgmantu 听我说……$SMCI 的光学业务烂得不行。 但它本身的业务按大约 120 亿美元市值看，似乎又被低估了。所以这里也许值得冒点风险。
英文原文
@afgmantu Hear me out... $SMCI optics are trash. But business itself looks undervalued at ~$12B MC. So might be worth taking the risk here.
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认为 AXTI 三个月涨 5 倍已经够传奇，并希望 SIVE 成为下一个类似标的。
@KonradJaku11615 我觉得 $AXTI 三个月涨 5 倍已经够传奇了吧？ 不过还是希望 $SIVE 成为下一个，真心感觉它是那种一年才会出现一次的机会。
英文原文
@KonradJaku11615 I feel like $AXTI going up 5x in 3 months was legendary enough? But hope $SIVE is the next, genuinely feels like a once a year type spot.
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认为 MU 之所以今年仍跑赢大盘，是因为利润太强；若没有宏观冲击，本应更高。
@Indomitable912 是的，你的直觉是对的。$MU 今年到现在还涨了 34%+，而整个市场在下跌，原因就是他们利润实在太强。 如果不是伊朗战争、而市场又在定价降息，它现在可能已经涨到 60%+ 了。
英文原文
@Indomitable912 Yes your intuition is correct. The reason why $MU is still up 34%+ YTD while the entire market is tanking. Is exactly because they're making so much profit. If there weren't a War in Iran and markets were pricing in rate cuts, it would might be up 60%+ by now.
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回顾父亲最看好的 PL，以及自己后来转向 RKLB 的经历和遗憾。
我爸最看多的股票？ $PL，3 美元时买的，现在 18 个月涨了 996.5% 以上。 我自己也为了好玩买过 1 股。 因为我当时并不觉得 Planet Labs 的营收能真正增长。 后来我转而重仓了 $RKLB。 现在 Planet Labs 已经涨了 10 倍以上，而我只剩下一堆懊悔。 顺带一提：他当年 35-40 美元时也很看好 $COIN，早期 $TSLA 他也看得很准，我一个都没听。 教训是： 有时候，你爸可能比你更会选股。尤其当你本来就跟他很像的时候。
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My dad’s most bullish stock? $PL at $3, which is up over 996.5% in 18 months. I bought 1 single share for fun. Because I didn’t think Planet Labs would grow revenue. I ended up long $RKLB instead. Planet Labs is now up over 10 times, and now I‘n left with a lot of regrets. FYI: They liked $COIN at $35-40 and early $TSLA as well, I didn’t listen to any of them. Lesson learned: Sometimes your parents are better investors than you are. Especially when you’re a mirror of them.
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认为 SMCI 约 130 亿美元估值具备买点，即使短期波动也不太可能跌破 100 亿美元。
@gofallingknife 同意，我也觉得 $SMCI 130 亿美元的估值看起来像个买点。 短期围绕这个价位可能还会有波动，但从基本面看，很难想象它会跌破 100 亿美元。
英文原文
@gofallingknife Agreed, $13B valuation for $SMCI looks like a buying opportunity to me as well. Could be near term fluctuations around the level but hard to see it going below $10B given fundamentals
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看好 SIVE 的非对称性，并比较其轻资产模式与 IQE 的债务压力。
我个人并不觉得它长期有太多下行风险，除了稀释之外。因为 $SIVE 是很多客户（比如 $POET、$JBL、Ayar、O-Net 等）的关键材料来源，而不是只押单一客户。 而且和 $IQE 相比，他们通过 Win Semi 这条链条更偏无晶圆厂模式，所以资本开支更轻。 反过来，$IQE 有很多债务，但也有大量资产，想要被市场强力重估，需要先重组。 这两边的风险画像完全不同，$SIVE 明显更有非对称性。 $IQE 也许有可能因为台湾出售成功而在一天内涨 2.5 倍，长期也可能像 Landmark 那样，如果他们变得更纯粹地做 InP 外延片，股价会更好看。当然，债务悬在头顶也是事实。 但我不会把所有鸡蛋放在一个篮子里，我更喜欢押多匹有机会赢的马。
英文原文
I personally don’t see much downside risk in the long run aside from dilution since $SIVE is the light for many customers like $POET, $JBL, Ayar, O-Net, and others rather than one. And compared to $IQE they’re fabless through win semi so capex is more lightweight. $IQE on the other hand has a lot of debt, but a huge amount of assets, and requires restructuring to be strongly rerated. Risk profiles are extremely different, $SIVE definitely more assymetrical. $IQE can possibly 2.5x in a day based on a successful Taiwan sale, and over the long run like Landmark if they become more pure play inp epiwafer. But of course lot of debt overhang But I don’t put all my eggs in one basket and like to pick multiple horses that can win the race
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认为 AAOI 在 100 美元附近受 ATM 发行压制，但长期营收潜力下依然被低估。
@Jornka329996 这说得通，因为它现在还在以 100 美元做 ATM 融资。 我一直说，$AAOI 短期的天花板就在这里，因为他们正按这个价格卖出 2.5 亿美元的股票。 但等这轮结束后，我个人觉得它按长期营收潜力看还是严重低估。
英文原文
@Jornka329996 It makes sense, since there is an ongoing ATM at $100. I've been saying this is the ceiling for short term $AAOI since they're selling $250m worth of shares at that price. But once that finishes, I personally it's very undervalued given long term revenue potential.
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解释 AAOI 的 ATM 发行节奏，以及股价通常在 100 美元附近受压的原因。
他们已经完成了那轮 2.5 亿美元的 ATM，而 $AAOI 最近又启动了另一轮 2.5 亿美元融资。 通常它在碰到 ATM 发行时会从 100 美元附近回落，今天就是这样。 上次他们做完后，股价一度涨到约 125 美元，然后又开始新的发行。 所以如果你看到它直接冲破 100 美元而且不再回落，那大概就说明 5 亿美元的 ATM 已经完成了。不过正式确认还得看文件或者财报。
英文原文
They finished their $250m ATM, and $AAOI launched another $250M recently. Typically it bounces off $100 whenever they tap into their ATM as seen with today. Last time they finished, it rallied to ~$125 before they offered another one. So if you see it blowing past $100+ and not dropping again, that's probably the sign they finished the $500m ATM. But you'll get formal confirmation of it either with filings or earnings.
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回应 AXTI 财报后大跌，提醒大家要自己做尽调，不要只看价格波动。
我猜也是这样。我之所以发这种内容，是因为 $AXTI 财报后一下跌了 30%，跌到 17 美元。 有时候，有些东西对我来说很明显，但我也能理解别人看到大跌时会害怕。 我可能花了更多时间去做尽调，也更早建立了自己对 $SIVE 的信念。但我一直鼓励大家，在自己下单前先建立自己的判断。 不然，人很容易只盯着价格波动，而忽略了基本面的变化。
英文原文
I guess that's true. I had to post something like this after $AXTI dropped 30% to $17 after their earnings report. Sometimes, things feel obvious to me, but I can see why others see a large drop but might be fearful. I probably had a lot more time to do DD and build my own conviction on $SIVE. But I always encourage people to build their own before entering any trade themselves. Otherwise, they might react to prices over fundamental shifts.
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分析SIVE预收入仅$250M却或是超大规模数据中心未来光源，低估值蕴含巨大潜力。
今天关于 $SIVE 的一些想法，市值约 $250M： Sivers 是未来可能的共封装光学(CPO) + 激光阵列光源，为 $AMZN、$META 和 $MSFT 等超大规模数据中心提供动力。 以约 $250m 的市值... 从已确认的客户来看，估计映射如下： 1. Jabil ($JBL) LRO 光收发器（前身为 $INTC 的硅光子学业务）-> $AMZN、$META 及其他超大规模数据中心。 2. Ayar -> AIChip/GUC -> $AMZN 及其他超大规模数据中心。 3. Enablence -> O-Net -> 亚洲超大规模数据中心。 4. 以及其他未确认的客户。 人们一直在问关于今天波动性的无尽问题：如果一只股票能上涨 20%，它也能下跌 20%。 $AXTI 经常出现 +30%、-30% 这样的波动（例如财报 -30% 至 $20，现在在 $60）。 就像 AXT 一样，正如你所见，重要的是它有长期跑赢大盘的潜力。 这就是为什么在进入任何交易之前形成自己的信念很重要，这样你就不需要每天问我问题了，如果你自己做了这笔交易的话。 我个人持有长仓，我真的认为 Sivers 有潜力成为市值 $5B+ 的公司，尤其是获得 Win qualification 的话。 尤其是在今天一些分析师告诉人们卖出 $SIVE 获利之后： - 如果你看 $COHR、$LITE 和其他光源公司的估值，它们现在是 $40B+。 - $SIVE 预收入先进封装 counterparties 都是 $1B-$4B+。 - 而我们有 $SIVE 作为超大规模数据中心供应链的未来光源和 Jabil 光收发器： 市值约 $250M。 这只是我的个人意见，但将信念锚定在市值（$250M）——作为超大规模数据中心供应链的光源——比锚定在价格波动上更好... 尤其是当机构（约 14.1% 持有）能够通过震荡多数持股的股票来建仓时。 这就是为什么我早早分享了我关于 $AXTI 或 $SIVE 的想法，因为我相信散户投资者有可能抢先机构一步，抓住 AI 供应链中即将出现的瓶颈环节。 以及为什么我分享了 $SIVE 的超大规模数据中心供应链映射，这样人们可以基于未来光源增长形成自己的信念。
英文原文
My thoughts today on $SIVE, at a ~$250M MC: Sivers is the future likely CW + laser array light source powering hyperscalers from $AMZN, $META, and $MSFT. At ~$250m... From confirmed clients, est. mapping: 1. Jabil ( $JBL ) LRO Transceivers (Former SiPH $INTC) -> $AMZN, $META, and other Hyperscalers. 2. Ayar -> AIChip/GUC -> $AMZN and other hyperscalers. 3. Enablence -> O-Net -> Asian Hyperscalers 4. And other unconfirmed customers. People have been asking me endless questions about today's volatility: If a stock can go up 20% it can do up 20% too. $AXTI had those +30%, -30% movements all the time (eg. Earnings -30% to $20, now at $60). And like AXT as you've seen, what matters is it has the likely potential to outperform long term. That's why it's important to develop your own conviction before entering any trade, so you don't need to ask me questions every day if you take it yourself. I personally have a long position and I do think Sivers has the potential to be a $5B+ company with Win qualification. Especially amid some analysts post today telling people to take profits on $SIVE: - If you just look at $COHR, $LITE and other light source valuations today, they're $40B+. - $SIVE pre-revenue advanced packaging counterparties are all $1B-$4B+. - And we have $SIVE as the future light source for hyperscaler supply chains and Jabil transceivers: At ~$250M. Just my personal opinion, but it's better to anchor conviction to the marketcap ($250M) as the light source for hyperscaler supply chains, than price fluctuations... Especially when institutions (~14.1% owned) are able to to shake the tree of a majority owned stock to build a position. This is why I've shared my thoughts about $AXTI or $SIVE early since I think it's possible for retail investors to frontrun institutions for the up and coming chokepoints in AI supply chains. And why I've shared hyperscaler supply chain mapping for $SIVE so people can build their own conviction on future light-source growth.
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回忆自己很早就买过 HOOD。
@ptyagi79 @pepemoonboy 我好像 18 美元左右就买过 $HOOD？
英文原文
@ptyagi79 @pepemoonboy I bought $HOOD at like $18?
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看好 IQE 若转向 InP epiwafers 仍有产能潜力，但债务和重组是主要压制。
@BobbaPaddop 只看潜在产能的话，我其实挺喜欢 $IQE，如果他们把业务重构到 InP epiwafers 方向的话…… 现在其实也没什么别的进展，就只是等重组公告，因为债务才是主要压制因素（而且如果台湾资产出售能落地，也会缓解这个问题）。
英文原文
@BobbaPaddop I really like $IQE just given latent capacity if they refactor toward InP epiwafers... There's not really much going on, just waiting for any restructuring announcements, since that's debt is the main overhang (and Taiwan asset sales would clear it)
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愿意在 7B 市值附近买 AAOI，但当前 AXT 估值偏高，暂时不加仓。
如果 $AAOI 的市值在大约 70 亿美元，我会考虑买入。 $AXTI 现在 32 亿美元的估值就有点偏高了，因为 SMM 上并没有出现 7N 铟的重大非标上涨。我还在拿着现有仓位，但出于时机考虑，可能不会继续加仓。 长期看其实影响也没那么大。
英文原文
I'd be a buyer at $AAOI here at a ~$7B MC. $AXTI $3.2B is a tad more elevated now, given there wasn't any major spike of 7N indium nonstandard on SMM. I'm holding existing positions, but probably not adding here just for timing-purposes. In the long run, doesn't really matter much.
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认为不要只盯价格波动，$AXT 和 $SIVE 的长期价值仍可能非常高。
什么都没有？如果有人愿意在限价买单很少的情况下，把给 $JBL、Ayar、$MRVL Celestial 等客户供光源的公司按 2.5 亿美元市值去市价砸盘或者止损，他们当然可以这么做。 我第一次发 $AXT 时，它从 15 美元跌了 20% 到 12 美元，现在已经大概 60 美元了。 最好的办法是看市值，而不是看中途的百分比波动，因为沿途一定会有很多波动。 $SIVE 可能是我现在最喜欢的光子板块机会之一，我个人觉得如果大家 6 个月后回头看，现在的估值一定会让人拍桌子。
英文原文
Nothing? If people want to market sell/stop loss the laser supplier to $JBL, Ayar, $MRVL Celestial and others at a $250m, when there's low limit buys, they're free too. $AXT dropped 20% to $12 when I first posted it at $15 and now it's ~$60. Best thing to do is look at market cap and not the % fluctuations, since there's going to be a lot of volatility along the way. $SIVE is probably one of my favorite photonic sector opportunity right now given valuation. And I personally think if people looked back 6 months later, they'll be pounding the table at current valuations.
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认为 DELL 是 AI 基建的重要受益者，年内涨幅已经不错。
@ScroogeCap 对，$DELL 是一个大受益者！他们的股价年初至今已经涨了 22%。
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@ScroogeCap Yep, $DELL is a large beneficiary! Their stock price is already up 22% YTD.
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认为市场上围绕 SMCI 的噪音很多，但当前更重要的是估值和公司本身的美国属性。
@StrategicParry 同意，外面显然还有更好的机会。 我只是看到很多关于 $SMCI 的新闻，但没人把自己到底是什么立场说清楚。 不过话说回来，$SMCI 实际上是一家美国公司，只是和台湾有很深的渊源，并不是中国公司。
英文原文
@StrategicParry Agreed, there's clearly better opportunities out there. I'm just seeing a lot of news around $SMCI, but nobody stating any clear positions they have. That being said $SMCI is actual an American company with deep roots to Taiwan, not a Chinese one.
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认为若 SMCI 继续下跌，基本面可能会压过监管压力，且很多风险早已被市场消化。
我个人的看法是，如果 $SMCI 继续跌下去，基本面很可能会压过监管层面的压力。 很大一部分风险其实在 2024 年就已经差不多被知道了，并随着时间被逐步计价。今天只是对这些内容以及其规模的确认。 不过话说回来，显然还有更好的机会。
英文原文
This is just my personal view that if $SMCI drops further than here, fundamentals probably outweigh regulatory overhang. Large part of it was already kinda known from 2024, and priced in over time. Today was just confirmation of it, along with the scale. That being said, there's clearly better opportunities out there.
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$SMCI监管风险或致买入机会，剥离噪音后估值约10-11倍PE。
所有人都在关注$SMCI向中国走私价值数十亿美元AI芯片的事。 但没有人回答这个问题： 我如何从中赚钱，这是否是买入机会？ 我的答案是： 如果$SMCI跌破约$24很多，甚至更低。在约$140亿市值时就像是买入机会。 所有人看美国司法部(DOJ)的案子都觉得超微电脑完蛋了。 但有两点： 1. 到目前为止公司本身似乎被隔离了（未被列为被告） 2. $SMCI向中国国有机构销售芯片早已是公开的（只是程度没达到$25亿以上），通过2024年浑水做空报告(Hindenburg short seller reports)。 所以中国收入的这部分有相当一部分已经被定价了，这就是为什么$SMCI从$100以上暴跌到现在交易价$24。 现在如果我们剥离表象和一些实质收入： -> $SMCI GAAP净收入去年为$10.5亿，2026财年估计约为$12.5亿，部分估计高达$15亿。 然后我们剔除约$1.5亿走私利润从财务报表中：$10.5亿 -> ~$9亿？ 按市盈率(P/E)计算，作为成长型公司仍然相对便宜，大约10-11倍？ 现在看跌的风险： -> 舆论形象仍然很糟糕。你可以往垃圾堆里再加垃圾。 但反正还是垃圾，没什么大变化？ -> $NVDA疏远$SMCI？（他们2024年已经这么做了）。 -> $SMCI未被列为被告，但如果美国证券交易委员会(SEC)/美国司法部(DOJ)起诉他们，那么会有大量监管费用和可能的罚款。 -> 也许会有订单取消，但如果2024年面临问题时他们没有取消订单，现在应该也没问题？ 现在...有没有比承担这个监管风险更好的机会？ 100%有。 恐慌时会有更多下行空间吗？ 是的。 但如果剥离噪音，$SMCI作为一家公司在约$140亿市值、按10-11倍远期盈利计算看起来很便宜。
英文原文
Everyone is looking at $SMCI smuggling billions of dollars of AI chips to China. But nobody is answering the question: How do I make money off this, and is it a good buying opportunity? My answer: If $SMCI drops much lower than ~$24 overnight. It like a buying opportunity at a ~$14B MC. Everyone looks at the DOJ case and thinks Super Micro are cooked. But two things: 1. The company itself looks insulated, so far (not named a defendant) 2. $SMCI chip sales to China state actors was already known (just not to the $2.5B+ extent), by Hindenburg short seller reports in 2024. So a decent part of the China revenue stuff was already priced in, which is why $SMCI crashed from $100+ and is now trading at $24. Now if we strip away optics and some material revenue: -> $SMCI GAAP net income was $1.05B last year, and FY 2026 is estimated to be around ~$1.25B with some estimates going to $1.5B. And then we rip away an est ~$150M in smuggled in profit out of financials: ~$1.05 billion -> ~$900M? On a P/E basis, still looks relatively cheap as a growing company, maybe ~10-11x? Now the downside: -> Optics are still trash. You can add more trash to trash. But it's still trash regardless, doesn't change much? -> $NVDA distancing itself with $SMCI? (They already did in 2024). -> $SMCI not named a defendant, but in the case SEC/DOJ goes after them, then lot of regulatory fees and possibly fines. -> Maybe order cancellations, but if they didn't cancel orders for the problems they had in 2024, it looks fine now? Now... Are there a lot better opportunities than taking this regulatory leap of faith? 100%. Is there potential more downside from panicking? Yes. But if you strip away the noise, $SMCI as a company looks cheap ~$14B at roughly 10-11x forward earnings.
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说 AEHR 是自己最喜欢的多头标的之一。
@mi20483980476 @moderndayvenom $AEHR 是我最喜欢的多头标的之一。不幸的是，对方只让我选五只。
英文原文
@mi20483980476 @moderndayvenom $AEHR is one of my favorite longs. Unfortunately the question asked me to pick 5 only
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@Bheafey97 $SIVE 会成为硅光 / CPO 转型里的激光源。
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@Bheafey97 $SIVE as the laser source for silicon photonics/CPO shift.
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说 SIVE 是自己最近一次的看法，短期目标市值 20-30 亿美元，而当前市值仍很低。
@ecomTrevor $SIVE 是我最近一次的看法！我个人的短期目标市值是 20-30 亿美元，而它现在的市值才 3 亿美元。 不过话说回来，很多这些已有标的还有很长的路要走。
英文原文
@ecomTrevor $SIVE was my latest call! My personal short term PT was $2-3B, and it sits at a $300M MC now. That being said a lot of these existingnames still have a long way to go.
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提醒不要把自己提到的票满仓押注，但认为 TSEM 适合长期持有两年以上。
@Kevin1151268 哈哈，拜托别把你所有仓位都压到我提到的这些名字上。 不过话说回来，$TSEM 长期信念很高，我个人很舒服拿两年以上，然后就当它不存在。 我觉得这大概是更好的策略。
英文原文
@Kevin1151268 LOL, pls don’t full port it into names I mention. That being said $TSEM is high conviction long term, I’m personally comfortable holding over two years and just forgetting about it. That’s probably a better strategy imo