供应链分析
产业链结构、上下游与瓶颈环节研究 · 共 1122 条 · 第 6 / 23 页
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光子链条整体都在涨
光子学起飞。 $MXL +76.2%（哈哈） $AAOI +15.03% $SIVE +12.69% $AEHR +7.07% $SOI +6.19% $LITE +4.96% 希望你没有卖掉以后去追别的卡点，匿名网友？ https://t.co/Ft2p94bDWR
英文原文
Photonics go brrr. $MXL +76.2% (lol) $AAOI +15.03% $SIVE +12.69% $AEHR +7.07% $SOI +6.19% $LITE +4.96% Hope you didn’t sell and try and chase other bottlenecks anon? https://t.co/Ft2p94bDWR
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光子与存储都在加速
谁会想到把 Tangerine Peel 风格公司给资金…… 然后去做空光子和存储里增长最快的名字？ $SNDK 和 $AAOI 最近都在疯狂上涨。 我也看到像 AAOI 这样的名字会继续增长，因为光模块和美国制造供应链都在扩张。
英文原文
Who thought it was a good idea to give Tangerine Peel inspired companies the funds… To short the fastest growing names in photonics and memory? $SNDK and $AAOI have been on a hyperbolic run. And I see names like AAOI continuing to grow as optical transceiver + Made in America supply chains grow.
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Rockley 退出后 SIVE 补位
@veggiepoultry @StormDirac Rockley 掉下去了，这很可能就是 $SIVE 成为 $AAPL 供应商的原因。
英文原文
@veggiepoultry @StormDirac Rockley went down, which is likely the reason why $SIVE became the $AAPL supplier.
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AAPL 是量产爬坡的暗示客户
@Embezzl3r 对，这么看确实合理，把 $AAPL 看成他们暗示过的量产爬坡超大规模云客户。
英文原文
@Embezzl3r Yeah makes sense about seeing their reactions to $AAPL as their hinted hyperscaler customer for volume ramp.
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META 可能是终端客户
@xm_build 这甚至都算不上泄密…… 你知道 $SIVE 在给 $JBL 的 1.6T LRO 供货，而当你指出 $META 很可能是最终终端客户时（因为 Meta 是 $INTC 的硅光客户，而 Jabil 已经收购了这个链条）， 人们就会生气，然后开始做空。这个文化挺有意思的。
英文原文
@xm_build It's not even leaks though... You know $SIVE is supplying to $JBL 1.6T LRO and when you point out $META is the likely end user (because Meta is the $INTC SiPH customer Jabil acquired). People get upset and start shorting. It's an amusing culture.
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把 SIVE 激光供应链映射到各家客户
我现在已经对瑞典文化感到很有趣了。 当有人把 $SIVE 激光的供应链映射到下面这些名字时，他们的散户 / 记者每天都在哭： -> $MRVL CPO -> $AMD CPO -> $JBL 1.6T LRO -> $NVDA -> $AMZN、$META、$GOOGL、$MSFT -> 腾讯、百度、阿里用于 ELS。 然后他们还会哭得更厉害…… 当别人展示 $AAPL 是 Sivers 激光器的秘密超大规模云客户时（因为苹果下一代 Apple Watch 开发需要每年 5000 万台产能）。 给超大规模云厂商供货……会让本地人难受成这样，甚至想自毁吗？ 有个“瑞典专业人士”出来说 CPO 没什么新东西、也没什么特别，所以 Sivers 也没什么特别，这真的很可笑。 与此同时，$NVDA 正在给从 $MRVL 到 $LITE、$COHR 的每个 CPO 项目都砸 20 亿美元。 X 最酷的地方在于，你每天和全球各地的人互动，都会学到新东西。
英文原文
I'm amused by Swedish culture at this point. That their retail/journalists are crying every day when someone posts a supply chain mapping of $SIVE lasers to: -> $MRVL CPO -> $AMD CPO -> $JBL 1.6T LRO -> $NVDA -> $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, $MSFT -> Tencent, Baidu, Alibaba for ELS. Then they go crying even further... When someone shows $AAPL is secret hyperscaler customer of Sivers lasers for their next-gen Apple Watch development (which requires 50,000,000 units annually). Does supplying to hyperscalers... Hurt locals's feelings that much to the point they try and self-destruct? It's hilarious that a "Swedish professional" went out and said CPO is nothing new and nothing special, so Sivers is nothing special. Meanwhile $NVDA is just funding every CPO program $2B from $MRVL to $LITE to $COHR left and right. Cool thing about X is you learn something new every day interacting with global audiences.
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AAPL 高概率也在用它们
@Matrix_B0SS $AAPL 高概率也在用它们做下一代 Apple Watch，所以这就是 7/7。
英文原文
@Matrix_B0SS $AAPL high certainty uses them too for next-gen apple watches, so that's 7/7.
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Ayar 的激光更贵
从我看到的情况来看，那是不同类型的激光。给 Ayar 用的更贵，因为 AI 数据中心要求更高，比如还要做光纤对准，所以成本也更高。 Apple 这边只需要推到大约 100mw 的组合功率，相比 AI 光子数据中心要简单得多，而且他们还能压缩激光尺寸。 另外，因为限制更宽松，晶圆良率也应该更高。 以 Apple 的规模来看，单位经济性也便宜得多。
英文原文
From what I’ve seen, it’s different lasers, ones for Ayar are more expensive since AI DCs have higher requirements, eg. there’s also fiber alignment involved, which hikes the cost. Apple should only push out 100 mw combined, compared to AI photonic DCs, and they can compress laser size. Also wafer yields should be higher since looser restrictions compared to AI DCs. Cost at Apple scale is also much much cheaper in terms of unit economics.
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TAM 扩张不只 Apple 一家
@Photonix1337 这已经低估了 TAM 的扩张，因为三星、华为、Google 以及其他公司都在复制 $AAPL。 Apple 还能把同样的技术用到其他产品线里。
英文原文
@Photonix1337 That’s underselling TAM expansion with Samsung, Huawei, Google, and others all copying $AAPL. Alongside the same technology for other product lines Apple offers.
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Win Semi 负责扩产
Win Semi 负责扩产……这也是我看多 $SIVE 的原因，这样他们就不用自己烧 capex 去处理这件事。 世界上能做这类事的公开上市公司没几家，而且它们都已经是几十亿美元市值了。 $JBL 专门选 Sivers 是有原因的。Ayar 也是。和 $LITE、$MTSI 等相比都一样。 只看市值就低估这家公司的人真的太多了。
英文原文
Win Semi handles expansion… that’s why I was bullish on $SIVE so they don’t need to burn through capex handling this. There’s only a few publicly traded companies in the world that can do this and they’re all in the tens of billions. There’s a reason $JBL selected Sivers in specific. Same with Ayar. Compared to $LITE, $MTSI and the others. People really underestimate the company just by looking at the MC.
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Win Semi 替 SIVE 做量产爬坡
@B_Funk_ Win Semi 负责给像 $SIVE 这样的公司做量产爬坡。Win 体量很大，而且是 SpaceX 供应链和 $AVGO 的代工厂。
英文原文
@B_Funk_ Win Semi hands volume ramp for companies like $SIVE. Win is massive and is the foundry for SpaceX supply chains and $AVGO.
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AAPL 使用 SIVE InP 激光阵列
秘密是，$AAPL 🍎 正在用 $SIVE 的 InP 激光阵列来大规模生产消费硬件（高置信度）。 按估计和图表来看，发布时间大概在 2027 年下半年。 想象一下 Apple 每年以 5000 万台以上的规模生产消费硬件…… 还是用一家市值 8.5 亿美元的激光供应商，哈哈。 然后 Apple 一旦这么做，$GOOGL、三星以及其他公司也会跟着上。
英文原文
The secret is that $AAPL 🍎 is using $SIVE InP laser arrays for mass production of consumer hardware (high confidence). Launch date around late H2 2027 from estimates and the graph provided. Imagine Apple mass producing consumer hardware with 50M+/units a year… Off a $850m MC laser supplier lol. Then with whatever Apple does, you’ll get $GOOGL, Samsung, and the others following along next.
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SIVE 正在对接 AAPL
@ashmyro 我已经知道 $SIVE 是下一个很可能的 $AAPL 供应商，这很重要。 我自己最关注的是它们给 AI 数据中心供货的 DFB 激光，因为那会是它们未来的核心营收驱动力。
英文原文
@ashmyro I'm already aware $SIVE is the next likely $AAPL supplier, which is huge. I've been focusing on their DFB lasers going to AI datacenters the most personally, since that's their core revenue drivers in the future.
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SIVE 终局映射很夸张
$SIVE 可能在 2027-2028 年映射到的所有超大规模云厂商，光按 9 亿美元市值来看就已经夸张了。 市场根本不懂接下来会发生什么。 从推测性映射来看： > $SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL -> 1. $AMZN（来自 Celestial 的光子 fabric 采购协议 / warrants） 2. $MSFT（maia） 3. $GOOGL（最近和 Marvell 的开发对话） $SIVE 为 Poet Starlight / 光学 interposer 提供激光，而且几天前 Poet 的 CFO 也确认他们正在给 Marvell 供货。 > $SIVE -> $POET -> “其他超大规模云供应商的 NDA” 1. 西方超大规模云厂商 > $SIVE -> $JBL（1.6T LRO）-> 1. $META（Jabil 承接了 $INTC 的硅光遗产，对应 Meta LRO 项目） 2. $NVDA（NVIDIA 可能把光模块 OEM 出去）-> $MSFT | AWS | 其他超大规模云厂商 $SIVE 是 $JBL 1.6T 光模块已确认的激光源。 > $SIVE -> Ayar（上个月为了量产爬坡融资 5 亿美元） -> 1. Alchip（联合 CPO） 2. Intel 3. GUC/Wiwynn -> $AMZN（Alchip） -> $AMD（来自 $GFS 合作的 CPO）也有可能。 $SIVE 已知是 Ayar 的激光供应商，而且 Ayar 最近把 $MTSI / $LITE 从网站上删掉了。现在只显示 $GFS + $SIVE，这很可能说明 Sivers 是主要激光供应商。 既然 $GFS x $AMD 最近合作了，那如果 AMD 走 Ayar 路线，Sivers 就可能成为其 CPO 项目的核心激光供应商。 > $SIVE -> Enablence -> O-Net（大型亚洲 OEM）-> 亚洲超大规模云厂商 1. $AVGO ELS（可能） 2. $META 和 $GOOGL ELS 3. ByteDance（可能）-> ELS 4. Tencent（可能）-> ELS 5. Alibaba（可能）-> ELS $SIVE 和 O-Net / Enablence 在 OFC 附近有 ELS 合作关系。 Sivers 激光由 Win Semi 之类的代工厂大规模生产……而且在最近的图片展示里，它们也验证在 $GFS 的 CPO 供应链中。 这不是在看 Sivers 今天靠认证收入能指引多少，而是未来每一个西方 / 亚洲超大规模云厂商在 2027、2028、2029 及以后对 CPO / 1.6T 的需求所对应的营收。 $SIVE 看起来是市场上最不被了解、但还没被真正反映出来的光子股票之一。
英文原文
All the hyperscalers $SIVE likely ends up in 2027-2028 is staggering at a $900m MC. Markets don't understand what's coming. From speculative mapping: > $SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL -> 1. $AMZN (purchase agreement/warrants with photonic fabric from celestial) 2. $MSFT (maia) 3. $GOOGL (recent development talks with Marvell) $SIVE powers Poet Starlight/optical interposers, and Poet's CFO confirmed they're supplying to Marvell few days ago. > $SIVE -> $POET -> "NDAs other hyperscaler suppliers" 1. Western Hyperscalers > $SIVE -> $JBL (1.6T LRO)-> 1. $META (Jabil $INTC SiPH inheritance, maps to Meta LRO program) 2. $NVDA (NVIDIA possibly OEMs optical transceivers) -> $MSFT | AWS | hyperscalers $SIVE is the confirmed laser source for $JBL 1.6T optical transceivers. > $SIVE -> Ayar ($500m fundraiser last month for volume ramp) -> 1. Alchip (Joint CPO) 2. Intel 3. GUC/Wiwynn -> $AMZN (Alchip) -> $AMD (CPO from $GFS partnership) possible. $SIVE is known laser supplier to Ayar, and Ayar removed $MTSI / $LITE from their website recently. Only showing $GFS + $SIVE, likely showing Sivers was primary laser supplier. As $GFS x $AMD partnered up recently, that makes Siver a possible core laser supplier for $AMD's CPO program if they go with Ayar. > $SIVE -> Enablence -> O-Net (massive Asian OEM)-> Asian Hyperscalers 1. $AVGO ELS (possible) 2. $META and $GOOGL ELS 3. ByteDance (possible) -> ELS 4. Tencent (possible) -> ELS 5. Alibaba (possible) -> ELS $SIVE ELS partnership with O-Net/Enablence around OFC. Sivers lasers is mass produced by foundries like Win Semi... and they're validated in $GFS CPO supply chains too from their recent image presentations. It's not about what Sivers is forecasting today from qualification revenue that everyone models off of. Alpha comes from future revenue proportional to demand from every Western/Asian hyperscaler for CPO/1.6T in 2027, 2028, 2029, and onward. $SIVE looks like one of the most unknown photonic stocks on the market that's yet to come.
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AMD 之外的主要受益者
@northyvt 我觉得除了 $AMD 之外，$TSM 和 OSAT / 先进封装合作伙伴会是主要受益者？ 也许 $AMAT、$LRCX、$KLAC、$ASML 以及其他公司也会受益？ $INTC 也有他们最近回购回来的自有工厂，所以也挺开心的。
英文原文
@northyvt I feel like $TSM and OSAT/advanced packaging partners are the main beneficiaries apart from $AMD? Maybe like $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC, $ASML and others too? $INTC also have their own fabs that they bought back recently so it's happy.
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CPU 开始像存储一样短缺
CPU “严重短缺” 现在看着 CPU 一天天变得越来越像存储，挺好笑的，像 $SNDK 那样不断涨价。 “自 3 月以来，服务器 CPU 已上涨 10% 到 20%” $INTC 和 $AMD 计划在 Q3 继续涨价。 “CPU 供应很可能在 2026 和 2027 年继续紧张”，其中“Intel 的服务器 CPU 短缺可能长达 6 个月，AMD 则为 8 到 12 周”。 $TSM 也在因这波短缺而增加 capex。 “恐慌的主要原因是 CPU 和 AI ASIC 需求同时爆发；目前库存包括 Intel、AMD 主流代际 CPU，以及 $NVDA 即将推出的 Vera CPU，全部都在 3nm 工艺上。” 看起来我们又绕回来了？
英文原文
CPU "serious supply shortage" It's still funny to see CPUs become more like memory day-by-day with the price hikes like $SNDK. "Server CPUs have jumped between 10% and 20% since March" with $INTC and $AMD planning to further price hikes Q3. "CPU supply is likely to remain tight through 2026 and 2027" with "server CPU shortages reaching up to six months for Intel and 8-12 weeks for AMD" $TSM is also increasing capex in response to this shortage. "The main reason behind the fear is the simultaneous outbreak of CPU and AI ASIC demand; inventory currently includes Intel, AMD mainstream generation CPU, and $NVDA's upcoming Vera CPU, all using 3nm process Looks like we've come full circle?
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Win 和 Shunsin 不会直线上涨
我觉得很多新朋友会惊讶地发现： 股票不会像 Win（3105）和 Shunsin（6451）今天这样直线上涨。 Win 未来 12 个月非常有吸引力，尽管短期会有波动。Shunsin 也是，它是富士康的光子封装 / 测试部门。 可能会有战争式波动，比如伊朗扣了两艘船…… 但我预计 CPO 相关名字会明显跑赢任何宏观环境，并带来更多历史新高。
英文原文
I think many newcomers will be surprised to learn: Stocks don’t move in a straight line up as seen with Win (3105) and Shunsin (6451) today. Win is very compelling over the next 12 months, despite short term volatility. Same with Shunsin as Foxconn’s photonics packaging/test arm. Probably going to be War volatility, with Iran seizing two ships… But I expect CPO related names to heavily outperform any macro climate and lead to more ATHs.
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AIXA 被挡住后会很糟
@R2Discovery 对，像这种也是另一个例子，如果美国没有阻止 $AIXA，这家公司对光子建设至关重要…… 那西方供应链的处境会糟透了。 但政府常常会漏掉一些利基的上游公司。
英文原文
@R2Discovery Yes stuff like this is another example, if US didn't block $AIXA, which is critical for photonics buildout... Western supply chains would be an absolutely horrible spot. But there's some niche upstream companies the governments miss.
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SOI 是硅光基板垄断
对，像这种就是最好的例子。$SOI 是硅光所需基板的垄断者。 法国监管机构已经注意到了。但欧洲很多国家都在配合把技术转移给中共。 唯一能阻止这件事的，就是足够的美国持股或者足够的公众认知。
英文原文
Yes stuff like this is the perfect example. $SOI is a monopoly over substrates needed for silicon photonics. French regulators caught on. But there's so many European nations that are complicit in technology transfer to the CCP. Only thing to prevent this is enough American ownership or awareness.
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欧盟小盘股是防卡点外溢
我有理由重点关注欧盟小盘股。 这是我还没公开讲过的投资 thesis。 我也希望大家愿意花时间读一下： 从 $ALRIB（量子 / MBE）、$LPK（玻璃基板）、$SIVE（DFB 激光），或者像 Nippon Chemical 这样的亚洲公司都包括在内。 这是为了防止敌对势力接管或破坏美国所需的关键卡点。 欧洲的 FiconTEC（虽然是私营公司）就是一个例子，被和中国中共有关联的公司收购了。 我甚至不确定这在法律上怎么会被允许，德国应该 100% 把它从中国手里收回来。 它们几乎垄断了 AI 和 LIDAR 所需的 CPO / SiPH 测试环节。客户里包括 $NVDA、$TSM、$AVGO 和 $INTC 这类最关键的 AI 和半导体公司。 随着时间推移，这种收购之后，大量知识产权和技术 IP 流向中国的可能性很高，而且他们会对美国供应链拥有更多控制。 如果有足够的美国持股和足够的关注，我们的处境会比现在好得多，也不会有隐藏的中共持股 / 接管问题。 否则，我们在美国供应链上就会有更多后门，就像 $AXTI 和 InP 基板那样（如果我们现在没有建立独立产能的话）。 欧盟允许上游供应链卡点（比如专门测试或基板制造）被地缘政治对手买走，或者把 IP 转移过去。 而美国可能还没有意识到这些脆弱性。 这已经是我作为散户能尽到的最大努力了。 未来政策制定者会注意到这些，并在这些草根（散户）自下而上的推动中，阻止这种事情发生。
英文原文
There's a reason I spotlight EU small caps. This my investment thesis that I haven't publicly stated yet. And I hope people spend the time to read: From $ALRIB (quantum/MBE), $LPK (glass substrate), or $SIVE (DFB Lasers). Or even Asian names like Nippon Chemical. It's to prevent hostile actors from taking over or disrupting critical chokepoints required by America. FiconTEC (Europe) as one example (though private) was acquired by Chinese CCP affiliated companies. Not even sure how this was legal and Germany should 100% seize it back from China. They were a quasi-monopoly over testing for CPO/SiPH needed for AI and LIDAR. It's clients include the most critical players in AI and semiconductors, such as $NVDA, $TSM, $AVGO, and $INTC. Over time, significant intellectual property and technological IP transfer to China is highly likely after these acquisitions and they'll have more control over US supply chains. With enough American ownership enough spotlight on these companies: we would be in a worse shape with hidden CCP ownership/takeovers. Or we would have more backdoors on American supply chains like with $AXTI and InP substrates (if we weren't building up independent capacity now). The EU has allowed upstream supply chain chokepoints (like specialized testing or substrate manufacturing) to be bought out or have their IP transferred by geopolitical rivals. While America still not might realize a lot of these vulnerabilities. This is the most I can do as a retail investor to prevent this from happening. Eventually policymakers will pay attention and prevent this from happening if all the movement happens from grassroots (retail) and bottom up.
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美国第一也包括海外供应链
我一直专注于让美国 #1。我确信国外不少人会因此不高兴。 这也包括加速台湾、欧洲和日本的供应链增长（这也是我整体的投资 thesis）。 以确保超大规模云厂商能拿到它们需要的材料，继续起飞。
英文原文
I’m always focused on making America #1. Im sure quite a few people outside the country might get upset though. Part of that includes accelerating supply chain growth overseas too in Taiwan, Europe, and Japan too (my overall investment thesis). To make sure hyperscalers get the materials they need to go brrrr.
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INTC 需要产业主权
@Adnan_M01 我现在看好 $INTC，而且这也是我工作的第一家公司。 美国需要在先进半导体供应链上确保主权。 其中一部分就是在盈利前先补贴 capex。
英文原文
@Adnan_M01 I’m a fan of $INTC now and that was the very first company I worked at. America needs to secure sovereignty over its advanced semiconductor supply chains. Part of that is subsidizing the capex until profitability.
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投资国安供应链是正和的
只是个洗澡时想到的点……投资美国国家安全和供应链，比如 $AMSC 或 $NVTS，真的非常爱国，而且是正和的。 很长时间里，对冲基金都在做空美国本土行业，比如能源和太阳能，直到这些行业被打到破产边缘…… 他们是在和中国的国家补贴下注。 多年之后，结果就是：相比中国，我们能用于 AI 的多余能源产能很少。 通过和白宫以及 $NVDA 一起，支持美国新兴公司的供应链安全…… 股票起飞？美国公司起飞？美国起飞？ （披露：我是美国人，而且非常偏向美国）
英文原文
Just a shower thought... it’s extremely patriotic and positive sum to be investing in American National Security and supply chains like $AMSC or $NVTS. For the longest time hedge funds shorted domestic American sectors like energy + Solar to the point of bankruptcy... By betting with China on their state subsidies. and many years later, as a result: we have little excess energy capacity needed for AI compared to China. By investing alongside the White House and $NVDA to securing US supply chains with up and coming American companies… Stocka goes brrr? US companies go brrr? And America goes brrr? (Disclosure: I’m American, and heavily biased toward US)
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评论美国产业政策倾向：资助非中国企业赴美建厂，实质是排除中国的供应链战略。
这就像给韩国锌业拨款在美国建精炼厂，或者给台积电($TSM)拨款在美国建晶圆厂一样。$HPS.A是北美最大的干式变压器(dry transformers)和开关设备(switchgear)供应商，他们在美国也有关键的生产设施，比如威斯康辛和加利福尼亚。我认为这基本上就是"什么都行，就是不要中国"。
英文原文
It's like giving grants to Korea Zinc to build refineries in the US or $TSM to build foundries in the US. $HPS.A is largest dry transformers -> switchgear in north america, and they have critical production facilities in US too like Wisconsin/California. I think it's basically "Anything but China"
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DPA 受益者清单
是的。总统在两天前援引了“国防生产法”。 这是为了扩张本土基础设施。 隐含受益者包括： 输电和先进导体： $AMSC - HTS 线材（先进导体）、电力电子 $PLPC - 先进导体 $ATKR - 输电组件 $VMI - 电网组件 电力电子 $AEIS - 电力控制电子 $VICR - 电力传输 电容组 $VSH - 电力电容和电容组 变电站和高压断路器 $POWL - 变电站 / 开关设备 $AZZ - 变电站 变压器 $HPS.A - 我最喜欢的变压器标的 $SPXC - 电力变压器 电工核心钢 $CLF - 美国唯一的电工钢生产商？ 这里面包括： - 变压器 - 输电组件 - 先进导体 - 电力电子 - 变电站 - 高压断路器 - 保护继电器、电容组 - 电工核心钢 TLDR：这项行政行动宣布了关于电网基础设施本土供应链的国家能源紧急状态。它授权联邦资金、采购承诺和加速措施，以迅速扩产。 受益者很多，我把 $AMSC、$CLF、$PLPC、还有 $HPS.A 组成了一个迷你 ETF；其他的我没持有。 我猜接下来 3 到 6 个月会有一堆 DOE 合同，比如“DoE 奖励 ___ 给 $POWL”之类的。
英文原文
Yes. The President invoked the "Defense Production Act" 2 days ago. To expand on domestic infra. Implicit beneficiaries were: Transmission & Advanced Conductors: $AMSC - HTS Wires (advanced conductors), power electronics $PLPC - advanced conductors $ATKR - transmission components $VMI - grid components Power Electronics $AEIS - power control electronics $VICR - power delivery Capacitor Banks $VSH - power capacitors and capacitor banks Substations & High-Voltage Circuit Breakers $POWL - substations/switchgear $AZZ - substations Transformers $HPS.A - My favorite for transformers $SPXC - power transformers Electrical Core Steel $CLF - Only producer of electrical steel in America? This included: -Transformers - transmission components - advanced conductors - power electronics - substations - high-voltage circuit breakers - protective relays, capacitor banks - electrical core steel TLDR: The executive action declared a national energy emergency regarding the domestic supply chain for grid infrastructure. Authorized federal funding, purchase commitments, and expedited actions to rapidly expand the manufacturing. Lot of beneficiaries, I made a mini ETF of with $AMSC, $CLF, $PLPC, and then $HPS.A; dont have any of the others. There's probably going to be a bunch of DOE contracts in the next 3-6 months like " DoE Awards ___ to $POWL " off this act is my guess.
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ASMC 也是 DPA 受益者
是的，我自己也持有一些 $ASMC。他们是昨天“国防生产法”的一个大受益者，因为他们和“先进导体”和“电力控制电子”有关。 我还找到了他们的 HTS 线材业务和 $MSFT 的联系。电网板块也应该会受益。
英文原文
Yeah I own some $ASMC. They're a large beneficiary of the "Defense Production Act" yesterday since they have links to "advanced conductors" and "power control electronics.". Found links to $MSFT for HTS technology for their HTS wire segment. Grid segment should be a beneficiary too.
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NVDA 推进 800V
$NVDA 正在积极推进 800V，这对今天来说是一个相当大的信号。 “2026 年 4 月 22 日，NVIDIA 已经与主要韩国电力设备公司展开讨论，探索基于约 800V 直流（DC）系统设计数据中心基础设施。” 之前提到的 Nvidia 合作伙伴包括：Infineon、$TXN、$STM、$NVTS、Delta、Flex、$ETN、Schneider 和 $VRT。 早就知道他们在往这个方向推了，但……看起来现在真的是 Nvidia 在主导。 我个人对 $NVTS 的敞口很小，因为它们在 800V DC 的 SiC / GaN IC 方面暴露很高。 我知道其他人更喜欢 $VICR 作为敞口。
英文原文
$NVDA actively pushing to 800V, and today was a pretty big signal. "On April 22, 2026, NVIDIA has initiated discussions with major South Korean power equipment companies to explore designing DC infra based on an approximately 800V direct current (DC) system" Previous named Nvidia partners include: Infineon, $TXN, $STM, $NVTS, Delta, Flex, $ETN, Schneider, and $VRT. It's been known they're been pushing for this but... looks like Nvidia is really driving it. Personally very small exposure to $NVTS since they're they have a high exposure for SiC/GaN ICs for 800V DCs. I know others really liked $VICR for exposure.
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欧洲 AI 受益名单
欧洲似乎正在从 AI 中获得一些乐子。 $LPK +20.69% -（玻璃核心基板） +20.69% $IQE - 12.22% -（InP 外延晶圆） $SOI +11.02% -（硅光基板） $ALRIB +5.8% -（MBE / 量子） 然后是 $SIVE，因一篇本地瑞典打击稿而下跌 -4.7%，而 $POET 在确认了 Marvell 供应商关系后上涨了 40%+。 不过我依然非常看多 $SIVE，因为市场还没有把它和 $POET、$MRVL 之间的联系拼起来。 不管怎样，欧洲从自己对美国超大规模云厂商的重要性上，还是有值得开心的地方。
英文原文
Europe seems to be having a fun time from AI. $LPK +20.69% - (glass core substrates) +20.69% $IQE - 12.22% - (InP epiwafers) $SOI +11.02% - (silicon photonics substrates) $ALRIB +5.8% - (MBE / Quantum) Then there’s $SIVE down -4.7% from a local Swedish hit piece, while $POET is up 40%+ after Marvell supplier confirmation. But I’m very bullish on $SIVE since markets haven’t pieced together the connection to $POET and $MRVL yet. Regardless, Europe has something to be happy about from being important to American hyperscalers.
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POET 直供 MRVL
哇……$POET 今天盘前涨了 20.5%，而此前还已经涨了 19.32%。 主要原因是 CFO 的采访确认他们是 $MRVL 的直接供应商。 我想知道市场是不是已经知道上游激光供应商是谁了？（提示：$SIVE）。 https://t.co/flfx9NVkxk
英文原文
Woah... $POET is up 20.5% premarket today after a 19.32% gain. Mainly after the CFO's interview confirming they're the direct supplier to $MRVL. I wonder if markets know who the upstream laser supplier is yet? (hint: $SIVE). https://t.co/flfx9NVkxk
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AMD 的 CPO 供应链
哇……如果 AMD 走 Ayar 路线，并在 $GFS 上推进，那么 Sivers 看起来就是 $AMD CPO 项目的主要激光供应商。 有意思的是：$LITE 和 $MTSI 曾经被悄悄地、按顺序从 Ayar 的网站上移除了。 （特别感谢我的一位关注者 Setian 发来私信。） 所以 $SIVE 很可能先成为 Ayar 一代产品的主要激光供应商……进而成为经由 Alchip 或其他 ASIC 设计公司流转的所有 Ayar 客户的供应商。 Ayar 上个月还为了量产融资 5 亿美元，而 $SIVE 已经被设计进去。 这个发现对 $SIVE 来说结构上非常重大，因为它削弱了 $LITE 等公司作为主要供应商的叙事。 尤其也削弱了市场对 $SIVE 在 CPO 里只占很小激光份额的说法，如果它们很可能就是主要激光供应商的话。
英文原文
Woah... Sivers looks like the primary laser supplier to $AMD's CPO program if AMD goes the Ayar route at $GFS. The interesting thing is: $LITE and $MTSI were silently removed from Ayar's website sequentially over time. (Special thanks to one of my followers Setian for the DM.) So $SIVE likely became the primary laser supplier for Ayar first-gen... and by extension for all of Ayar's customers routing through Alchip or other ASIC design firms. Ayar also raised $500M last month for VOLUME PRODUCTION, where $SIVE is designed in. This find looks structurally massive for $SIVE as it undercuts narratives about $LITE and others being primary suppliers. And especially about $SIVE having only a small % laser share for CPO if they're likely to be the primary laser supplier.
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瑞典媒体看不懂光子学
我真的笑了。这大概是我目前见过最搞笑的标题了，自从 $RPI 那次之后。 你会看到瑞典那些不懂技术的记者，对半导体 / 光子学一窍不通。 他们在分析 $SIVE，还告诉所有本地人（大多数持股者）赶紧卖掉，因为它只是个“meme”。 他们不懂围绕即将到来的 $JBL 1.6T 或 $MRVL CPO 放量的超大规模云厂商认证周期吗？ 也不懂它刚刚被验证为 $GFS 生态里的激光供应商，而且 $AMD 正在推动新的 CPO 需求吗？ > 一定是 meme。只能按 2025 年 TTM 资产负债表和旧营收预测来估值，对吧？ 至少这种波动有助于在明年 CPO / 1.6T 关键拐点之前，把控制权转给美国投资者 / 机构。
英文原文
I'm genuinely laughing. This is gotta be the funniest headline I've seen to date since $RPI. You have non-technical journalists in Sweden, with no understanding of semiconductors/photonics. Doing an analysis on $SIVE and telling all the locals (who hold majority) to sell, because it's a "meme". Don't understand hyperscaler qualification cycles from upcoming $JBL 1.6T or $MRVL CPO ramp? Or the fact they just got validated as the laser supplier in $GFS ecosystem with $AMD driving new CPO demand? > Must be a meme. It's only possible to value a company based on TTM 2025 balance sheets and old revenue projections right? At least this volatility helps transfer control over to US investors/institutions before CPO/1.6T inflection point next year.
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本地人抛售对机构有利
他们其实是在帮助美国机构，鼓励本地投资者卖出。 这原本是一只主要由本地散户持有的股票。它最终只会把控制权转给西方机构。 我不太明白“meme stock”怎么会去支撑 $JBL 1.6T、Ayar、$MRVL 以及其他 CPO / 光子项目，哈哈。
英文原文
They're actually doing good work for US institutions encouraging local investors to sell. It was a majority retail-locally owned stock. It will just transfer control over to institutions in the West. Not sure what "meme stock" powers $JBL 1.6T, Ayar, $MRVL, and other CPO/photonics programs lol.
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AMD/GFS 的 CPO 反而利好 SIVE
$AMD 和 $GFS 的 CPO 公告，对 $SIVE 的影响可能比市场预期更大。 在这个消息下，$SIVE 激光很可能会支持 AMD 的 CPO 项目。 可能有两条路径： 1. Enosemi（AMD 在收购后做的内部 PIC 设计）。Enosemi 的芯片小片由 GF 代工，但对于 ELS，$AMD 可能会从多家供应商采购，而 $SIVE 可能是底层多来源激光源。 2. Ayar（AMD 在 2026 年 3 月投资，Series E）。Ayar 的 SuperNova 光源已经和 $LITE 一起使用了 $SIVE 的 DFB 激光阵列。 由于时间线和上个月那次巨额融资，Ayar 的 SuperNova 很可能是 MI500 在 2027 年的第一代 CPO 路径。那条路径已经把 $SIVE 设计进去了，而且它和 $LITE 都出现在 $GFS 的幻灯片里。 Enosemi 也许会在 2028 年及以后几代里更重要？ 不管怎样，$AMD 通过 Enosemi / Ayar 还是需要激光器来支撑他们 2027 年的 MI500 上市…… 看起来 Sivers 很可能会作为光源，支持 AMD 的 CPO 项目，因为它已经被设计进 Ayar 了。 $AMD / $GFS 这条线对 Sivers 的重要性看起来很大。
英文原文
The $AMD and $GFS CPO announcement is probably bigger than markets expect for $SIVE. With the news, it's likely $SIVE lasers power $AMD's CPO program. Either through two potential paths: 1. Enosemi (AMD's in-house PIC design post-acquisition). Enosemi's chiplets are fabbed at GF but for the ELS, $AMD could source it from multiple players with $SIVE as the underlying multi-source laser source. 2. Ayar ( $AMD invested in March 2026, Series E). Ayar's SuperNova light source already uses $SIVE DFB laser arrays alongside $LITE. Ayar's SuperNova is the most likely first-gen CPO path for MI500 in 2027 given timelines and the enormous fundraise last month. That path already has $SIVE designed in alongside $LITE and they both appear with $GFS's slide. Enosemi becomes more relevant for 2028+ generations? Regardless, $AMD through Enosemi/Ayar needs lasers for their 2027 MI500 rollout... It seems likely Sivers ends up powering $AMD's CPO program as the light source since they're designed into Ayar. The $AMD / $GFS materiality looks large for Sivers.
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变压器瓶颈已成国家行动
哈哈，我之前说过变压器瓶颈和像 $HPS.A 这样的上游供应链吧？？ 今天新的总统行政行动： “国家设计、生产和部署大规模电网基础设施的能力，包括 TRANSFORMERS……已经非常受限” “根据第 14156 号行政令宣布国家紧急状态，以扩大本土电网基础设施的开发、制造和部署能力” 现在已经是美国为开发供应链、向这个领域倾注资金的国家紧急状态了。
英文原文
LOL what did i say about transformer bottlenecks and upstream supply chains like $HPS.A ??? New Presidential Action Today: "The Nation’s capacity to design, produce, and deploy large-scale grid infrastructure, including TRANSFORMERS ... is dangerously limited" "National emergency under Executive Order 14156 to expand the domestic capability to develop, manufacture, and deploy grid infrastructure" It's now a US National Emergency to develop supply chains and pour money into the sector for expansion.
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Win Semi 去风险 SIVE 扩产
@JerryOBrie16396 Win Semi 负责 $SIVE 的量产爬坡。 而 Win 早就是 $AVGO 和 SpaceX 供应链里一个很大的、成熟的代工厂，所以这部分扩产已经去风险了。
英文原文
@JerryOBrie16396 Win Semi handles volume ramp for $SIVE. And Win is a massive established foundry for $AVGO and SpaceX supply chains already. So that scaling is de-risked.
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AMD 进军 CPO 对 SIVE 很利好
什么疯狂时间线？ 今天，$AMD 宣布要进入 CPO，并和 $GFS 合作。 这对 $SIVE 非常利好，因为 CPO / SiPH 需要外部激光光源。 而且……猜猜 GlobalFoundries CPO 生态里那两家公开激光供应商是谁？ $SIVE（大约 9.35 亿美元）和 $LITE（大约 640 亿美元） Sivers 的激光现在看起来真的可能会出现在未来所有超大规模云厂商的 CPO / 1.6T 部署里。 所以……如果 Sivers 能拿下为 $AMD Instinct MI500 的 CPO 方案提供激光阵列的位置。 （这看起来很有可能，因为目前列出的激光名字只有三个，而且超大规模云厂商喜欢多来源） 这可能意味着 Sivers 会迎来市场还没定价进去的大规模高量产。
英文原文
What a crazy timeline? Today, $AMD announced it's pushing into CPO and collaborating with $GFS. This is highly bullish for $SIVE since for CPO/SiPH, it requires external laser light source. And... guess who are the two public laser suppliers in the GlobalFoundries CPO ecosystem? $SIVE (~$935m) and $LITE (~$64 billion) Sivers lasers feel like they could be everywhere now in upcoming hyperscaler CPO/1.6T deployments. So... if Sivers secures the spot to provide the laser arrays for the $AMD Instinct MI500's CPO solution in 2027. (Which seems highly possible given there’s only three laser names listed + hyperscalers like to multi-source) This might represent massive, high volume production for Sivers that markets haven't pricing in.
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GFS 光子/CPO 生态名单
Global Foundries 的光子 / CPO 生态名单： 1. $GFS - 305 亿美元 2. $CDNS - 859 亿美元 3. $SEIGY - 2172 亿美元 4. $SNPS - 840 亿美元 5. $KEYS - 573 亿美元 6. $ATEYY - 1304 亿美元 7. RoboTechnik（ficonTEC）- 114 亿美元 8. $GLW - 1412 亿美元 9. $LITE - 638 亿美元 10. $SIVE - 9.5 亿美元 11. $FN - 247 亿美元 12. $ASX - 633 亿美元 这些都是公开交易的名字。 按他们的演示材料做一个等权做多这个生态，可能也不是个坏主意？ 我还是觉得好笑，所有上市公司都在几十亿美元到几百亿美元市值，而这里却夹着一家小小的瑞典激光公司，和 $LITE 并排出现。
英文原文
Global Foundries photonics/CPO ecosystem list: 1. $GFS - $30.5B 2. $CDNS - $85.9B 3. $SEIGY - $217.2B 4. $SNPS - $84B 5. $KEYS - $57.3B 6. $ATEYY - $130.4B 7. RoboTechnik (ficonTEC) - $11.4B 8. $GLW - $141.2B 9. $LITE - $63.8B 10. $SIVE - $950m 11. $FN - $24.7B 12. $ASX - $63.3B For publicly traded names. Equal weighted long on the ecosystem from their presentation might not be a bad idea? I still find it funny how everything publicly listed is trading in the tens of billions. Then there's some small Swedish laser company there next to $LITE.
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GFS 首次直接确认 SIVE
$GFS 是不是第一次直接确认了 $SIVE…… 作为他们 CPO / 光子生态的激光供应商？ 这次是明确的激光架构纳入，而不是之前和 Ayar / Celestial 那种供应链映射。 你还能从这里看到一些其他主要玩家： - $FN / $ASX 负责组装 - $LITE / $SIVE 负责激光 - $ATEYY / $KEYS 负责测试。 目前还没有基于文字的新闻，因为这来自 $GFS 2026 年 3 月的网络研讨会图像式演示。 但在 $LITE 旁边那份很小的激光供应商名单里，竟然有一家市值不到 10 亿美元的公司…… 这确实很特别，对吧？
英文原文
Did $GFS give the first direct confirmation about $SIVE... As the laser supplier for their CPO / photonics ecosystem? This is explicit laser architectural inclusion vs. previous supply chain mapping with Ayar/Celestial. You get a hint of the other major players here: - $FN / $ASX for assembly - $LITE / $SIVE for lasers - $ATEYY / $KEYS for testing. There's no text-based news yet, since this was the $GFS March 2026 webinar image-based presentation. But having a <$1B company on the tiny list of laser providers next to $LITE... Quite special right?
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GLW 在玻璃基板上领跑
Digitimes：$GLW 领先 KCC 和 LX Glass 的玻璃核心基板业务。 “玻璃核心基板……是下一代先进半导体封装的关键。” 除了其结构性重要性之外，玻璃核心封装的商业化时间线似乎也在加速。我们已经接近 H2，2027 年大概就是拐点。 我在上游玻璃核心名字里确实有仓位，不过最近的新闻也确认了它的重要性。
英文原文
Digitimes: $GLW leads glass core substrate vs. KCC and LX Glass "Glass core substrates ... are key to next-generation advanced semiconductor packaging". On top of its structural importance, the commercialization timeline for glass core packaging seems to be accelerating as well. We're close to H2 and 2027 is probably the inflection point. I do have positions in the glass core names upstream, but recent news confirms the importance.
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欧洲半导体也在起飞
哇……欧洲股票也在起飞。 $SIVE +12.76% $SOI +11.33% $ALRIB +9.08% $IQE +6.3% 当像 Soitec 这种 40 多亿美元市值的公司一天涨 10%+，这大概率就是机构买盘，像 IQE 和 Point72 那样。 https://t.co/tjLBK9C766
英文原文
Woah... European stocks go brrr. $SIVE +12.76% $SOI +11.33% $ALRIB +9.08% $IQE +6.3% When $4B+ MC companies like Soitec go up 10%+ a day, this is likely institutional buying as seen with IQE and Point72. https://t.co/tjLBK9C766
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GOOGL ASIC 新闻对 SIVE 不够计价
我很惊讶 $SIVE 没有因为 $GOOGL 和 Marvell 的 ASIC 新闻而涨得更高。 甚至连 $MRVL 隔夜都涨了 6.24%+。 市场大概还不知道上游激光源到底来自哪里，对吧？ https://t.co/0Hgfo0dQLo
英文原文
Surprised $SIVE isn’t up higher from the $GOOGL ASIC news with Marvell. Even $MRVL is up 6.24%+ overnight. Markets still probably don’t know where the upstream laser source comes from yet? https://t.co/0Hgfo0dQLo
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Blue Origin发射失败导致积压，连锁延迟影响ASTS等公司未来收益增长，非无关紧要。
太空板块的$ASTS看起来正玩得开心。尽管Blue Origin遭遇了重大失败，X平台上却莫名乐观...(这对SpaceX来说是利好，顺便也利好$RKLB。)至于$ASTS，当他们的卫星还没上天时，确实会影响未来的收入确认。Blue Origin的发射大概会推迟好几个月，可能影响~400-700万美元？如果一家主要以未来增长定价的公司被推迟了，那问题就不只是一颗卫星，而是后续的一系列卫星也会跟着延后...这对未来收益增长的影响很大(因为看起来他们没能达到45颗的目标)。经过数月的调查，Blue Origin可能会被$AMZN亚马逊的Kuiper项目和国防部的有效载荷积压住。看来他们处于非常不利的境地，不得不依赖竞争对手SpaceX。这绝非一些人用那些弯弯扭扭的线图所声称的"无关紧要"，但我也不评价这是否是买入机会。
英文原文
Space sector with $ASTS looks like it’s having fun. Lot of optimism on X somehow, even after Blue Origin had a major failure... (positive for SpaceX and byproduct $RKLB.) As for $ASTS it does matter for future revenue recognition, when they dont have satellites in space. Blue Origin launches probably got delayed a ton of months, maybe like ~4-7M? If a company that is priced primarily by forward growth gets delayed. Then it's not just one satellite, but the subsequent ones ones as well... this hurts forward earnings growth a lot (since it doesn’t look like they hit 45 targets) After months of investigation Blue Origin will likely be backlogged from $AMZN Kuiper and DoD payloads too. Seems like in a pretty bad spot being dependent on their competitor SpaceX. Definitely not "immaterial" as others were claiming with their squiggly line charts, but no comment about buying opportunity.
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中美AI竞赛驱动半导体供应链全面增长，台积电、ASML数据验证繁荣。
不，继续全速前进。美国和中国两个国家正在竞速，看谁能先在递归自我改进中实现技术奇点。$TSM的财报显示大幅增长，供应链几乎未受干扰（如氦气）。$ASML显示创纪录的资本支出。OpenAI融资超过1200亿美元，因此蔓延恐慌至少还能再持续一年半。像Mythos这样的模型正以惊人的速度不断改进，从中国到美国，所有人都在抢购所有GPU来训练新模型并追赶。每个人都在抢购材料，供应链中那些以前很少使用的零件现在都有了来自AI的大幅增长机会。
英文原文
Nah, full steam ahead. Two nations in US/China are racing to see who can reach the singularity first in recursive self-improvement. $TSM earnings indicated massive growth + little disruption to supply chains (eg. helium). $ASML indicated record capex spending. OpenAI raised $120B+ so contagion fears are gone for another year and half. Models like Mythos keep improving at just astounding rates, and everyone from China to US are soaking up all the GPUs to train new models + catch up. Everyone is soaking up materials and little used parts in supply chains now have massive growth vectors from AI.
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上游供应链主要在海外
@MisterPariPassu 很多上游供应链并不在美国。 它们主要集中在日本、韩国、越南、台湾等等。通常在美国上市的股票，价格更偏向于按前瞻 12 个月计价。
英文原文
@MisterPariPassu A lot of the upstream supply chains are not in the US. Mostly concentrated in Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, etc. Normally US-listed equities more priced in at a certain point in time. It's just rarer to find an $AAOI, $AEHR, sitting around.
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在光子学超级周期中做多整条CPO/1.6T供应链，推荐SIVE/Shunsin/Win Semi/MRVL/HPS.A五只标的
在更广泛的光子学超级周期中，提前布局1.6T/共封装光学(CPO)对我来说是最具吸引力的投资。我对这个观点有很高的信心。这就是为什么我做多整条供应链（外加一个额外瓶颈）： 1. $SIVE - 他们的激光收入随着$JBL、$MRVL、Ayar、O-Net大幅增长。而且我确实认为CPO/1.6T将远超任何保守的分析师预期，因为$NVDA、$GOOGL等公司大力推动光子学架构。下行风险是多源采购，但Jabil选择Sivers是有原因的。当你比较$MTSI、$LITE、$COHR、古河电工等公司时，全球范围内真正强大的激光供应商屈指可数...它们的市值都超过100亿美元，然后你有这个类似小型芯片法案的瓶颈，市值还不到10亿美元。 2. Shunsin（6451）- 我不明白为什么Foxconn的光学代工厂（用于测试、封装和组装）的估值比$LWLG低15亿美元市值。考虑到他们通过Foxconn的光子学规模显得非常去风险化。$TSM的光学部门VisEra估值约50亿美元，但他们从第三代在2028年下半年才能扩大产能。Foxconn看起来明年就要开始提升产能。他们只是基于$NVDA CPO供应链在台湾的需求以低远期市盈率倍数增长，所有公开指标都指向产能扩张和极端需求。 3. Win Semi - 他们是Sivers扩大DFB激光生产的代工厂，以及$AVGO、SpaceX供应链等的代工厂。当我做供应链映射时，Win Semi在我看到的每个前沿供应链中都出现了。市场可能有一些东西没有定价。 4. $MRVL - 我觉得作为小型Broadcom真的很吸引人。他们今天与$GOOGL的潜在设计有助于2028年后的业务案例。但我关注的催化剂是$MSFT Maia的提升，发生时间是2026年下半年，并可能在2027、2028、2029年持续指数级增长。Celestial收购对他们来说可能是世界上最明智的决定。也许在下次回调或CSP时买入？ 5. $HPS.A - 变压器/开关设备是数据中心供应链中的商品和平淡的部件。然而，当瓶颈是2-5年，且订单积压增长超过100%...导致极端短缺时。自从我发帖以来只涨了20%以上，但我确实看到去风险化，考虑到大量订单积压的可见性（即使它是推断的，他们不给出确切数字）。我确实认为市场错过了一些东西，特别是如果他们成功实施价格上涨，潜在的毛利率扩张....同样，订单积压加需求只是为公司去风险，而且看起来像是去年设施扩张后的高增长复合器。 还有很多其他我非常喜欢的如$NBIS、$JBL、$RPI、$TSEM、$LITE、$ARM、$SOI、$AXTI、$IQE、$ALRIB、Fittech、PCL等，但我只是从脑海中随口提到5个从今天的价格...如果我要创建一个新投资组合。当然，与其他与AI供应链不相关的公司进行杠铃式配置是好的，但这些只是我喜欢的5个。
英文原文
Frontrunning 1.6T/CPO within the broader photonics supercycle is the most compelling investment to me. I have high conviction in that statement. Which is why I'm long the entire supply chain (+1 extra bottlenecK) 1. $SIVE - Their laser revenue scales aggressively with $JBL, $MRVL, Ayar, O-Net. And I do think CPO/1.6T will blow away any conservative analyst projections from how hard $NVDA, $GOOGL, and others have been pushing photonics architectures. Downside risk is multi-sourcing, but there's a reason Jabil chose Sivers. When you compare $MTSI, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and others. There's genuinely not many laser suppliers in the entire world... they're all $10B+, then you have this mini CHIPS act chokepoint trading at <$1B MC. 2. Shunsin (6451) - I don't see how it's possible Foxconn's optical foundry for testing, packaging, and assembly is valued at $1.5B MC less than $LWLG. When they look extremely derisked piggybacking off of Foxconn's photonics volume. $TSM's optical arm VisEra example is ~$5B, but they scale H2 2028 from Gen-3. Foxconn looks to be ramping up just next year. They're just scaling low fwd p/e multiples off of $NVDA CPO supply chain demand in Taiwan and all public indicators point to capacity expansion + extreme demand. 3. Win Semi - They're the foundry for Sivers to scale up DFB laser production. As well as $AVGO, SpaceX supply chains and others. When I do supply chain mapping and Win Semi pops up in every single frontier supply chain I see. There's probably something markets are not pricing in. 4. $MRVL - I find this genuinely compelling as a mini-Broadcomm. Their potential design with with $GOOGL today, helps the case past 2028. But the catalyst I was looking at was $MSFT Maia ramp, which happens H2 2026, and likely keep scaling up exponentially into 2027, 2028, 2029. Celestial acquisition was probably the smartest thing in the world for them. Maybe on next drop or CSP? 5. $HPS.A - Transformers/Switchgears are commodities + boring parts of the DC supply chain. However, when the bottleneck is 2-5 years, and you have backlog increasing 100%+... causing extreme shortages. It's only up 20%+ since my thesis post, but I do see this being de-risked given massive backlog visibility (even though it's inferred, they don't give exact #). I do think markets are missing something, especially with potential gross margin expansion from price hikes if they pull it off.... Again backlog + demand just de-risks this company, and it seems like a high growth compounder post facility expansion last year. There's many others like $NBIS, $JBL, $RPI, $TSEM, $LITE, $ARM, $SOI, $AXTI, $IQE, $ALRIB, Fittech, PCL, and others that I'm very fond of, but just mentioning 5 off the top of my head from today's prices... if I'm creating a new portfolio. Of course, it's good to barbell with other uncorrelated companies to AI supply chains, but these are just 5 I liked.
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Point72 才刚开始买 IQE
@marv_jones6 Point72 上周才刚开始买 $IQE。 这对机构来说还处在发现阶段。 之所以感觉像“晚了”，只是因为我很早就发过 thesis 帖。
英文原文
@marv_jones6 Point72 literally just started buying $IQE last week. It’s at the beginning of discovery stage to institutions. The only reason it feels “late” is because I pointed it out extremely early and it’s already up few hundred %. But no, it’s still early
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称$700M流入AI供应链股票，建议用基本面分析等待市值兑现。
哪有什么回调——$700M正流入$JBL、J($MRVL)、Ayar、O-Net和其他供应链。人们也忘了$SIVE是芯片法案(CHIPS Act)的受益者，后续很可能还有更多跟进。最好基于前瞻增长做基本面分析来推导市值(MC)，然后等待逻辑兑现，而不是盯着K线图。
英文原文
What pullback it’s $700M going into $JBL, $MRVl, Ayar, O-Net and other supply chains? People also forget $SIVE was a CHIPS act recipient with likely more follow-ups. Better to do fundamental analysis on forward growth to derive MC and just wait for it to play out, not look at swiggly lines.
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台湾不会主动伤自己
@miraclemaster07 不，我不认为中国会是台湾的问题。 因为美国会在军事上保卫台湾，而且也没人想跟特朗普陷入潜在的核冲突。 我们的目标应该是搞清楚这些上游供应链，而不是把自己绕进去。
英文原文
@miraclemaster07 No, I don't see China as an issue with Taiwan. Since US would defend Taiwan militarily, and nobody wants to get into a potential nuclear conflict with Trump. Our whole semi supply chains end up in Taiwan, the US won't just hand that over lol.
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Marvell与Google洽谈TPU开发，Sivers有望成为光子光源供应商
$MRVL正在洽谈为$GOOGL开发TPU（张量处理单元），涵盖两种不同的芯片型号。 如果谈判顺利，$SIVE很可能成为Google供应链的光源供应商。 尤其因为其定制ASIC（专用集成电路）可能推动Celestial IP在MPU（微处理器单元）架构中实现规模扩展（光子结构，Photonic Fabric）。这与$POET和Sivers两家公司的布局都相吻合。 定制ASIC需要数年时间，因此来自Google的实质性营收可能要等到2028年下半年。 供应商可能采用多元采购策略，但拥有Google作为潜在终端客户是一个超越2028年的结构性多年催化剂。 市场通常具有前瞻性。
英文原文
$MRVL in talks to develop $GOOGL TPU for two different chip models. High possibility $SIVE likely became the light source for Google's supply chains if talks go well. Especially as their custom ASIC likely pushes Celestial IP for scale up (Photonic Fabric) in the MPU's architecture. And this maps to both $POET and Sivers. Custom ASICs take years, so there's probably no material revenue from Google until H2 2028. Vendors are also probably multi-sourced, but having Google as a likely end user is a structural multi-year catalyst past 2028. Markets are typically forward looking.
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CPO 爬坡被 NVDA 提前
$NVDA 把整个生态都加速了，CPO 预期也因此提前了好几个月，就像 $ASX 看到的那样。 所以我预计 Celestial 的量产会比 $MRVL 自己的 2028 预期早得多。 我原本的 thesis 是，$SIVE 通过 $JBL 1.6T 这条桥梁，把量产订单从 2027 年以后往前推。 市场通常是前瞻性的。
英文原文
CPO expectations have been bumped up months with $NVDA accelerating everything in the ecosystem as seen with $ASX. So I expect Celestial to be delivering volume much earlier than $MRVL projections than 2028. Main thesis was $SIVE was $JBL 1.6T bridging the gap with Sivers into accelerating volume orders past 2027. Markets usually are forward looking