供应链分析
产业链结构、上下游与瓶颈环节研究 · 共 1413 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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Trendforce 预测 26H2 SLC NAND 大涨，华邦等小厂受益明显。
嗯，据 Trendforce 预测，2026 年下半年 SLC NAND（单级单元闪存）价格预计上涨 120-170%。 $MU（美光，21%）和 Kioxia（铠侠，20%）占据最大份额，但更清晰的受益者似乎是： 1. Winbond（华邦电子，2344）：约占 SLC NAND 市场 15% 2. Macronix（宏碁半导体，2337）：约 11% 市场份额 3. SkyHigh https://t.co/6F2Aszjd90
英文原文
Well, looks like SLC NAND is forcasted to rise up 120-170% for H2 2026 per Trendforce. There's $MU (21%), Kioxia (20%) as largest share, but clearer beneficiaries appears to be: 1. Winbond (2344): ~15% of the SLC NAND market 2. Macronix (2337): ~11% market share 3. SkyHigh https://t.co/6F2Aszjd90
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AEHR暗示硅光子学扩产，若明确CPO则Msscorps受益。
@JJJJJ_66666 情况很微妙，$AEHR 的暗示更多是指向更广泛的硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)相关产能爬坡。这可能包括 800G/1.6T 可插拔光模块，或共封装光学(CPO)。如果他们直接点名 CPO，Msscorps 将是一个非常清晰的受益标的。它最近因延迟说法遭受重创（即使...
英文原文
@JJJJJ_66666 It's nuanced, $AEHR implications was more toward broader silicon photonics related ramp. Which could include 800g/1.6T pluggables, or CPO. If they directly named CPO, Msscorps would be a very clean readthrough. It just got hit really hard recently from that delay claim (even
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NBIS签Reflection算力协议后股价反跌，博主暗示背后另有合作伙伴。
$NBIS 与 Reflection AI 签署超 10 亿美元算力协议，通过 2029 年获取 GB300 访问权。Reflection 此前也与 $SPCX 签署了数十亿美元协议。鉴于 $NBIS 今日闻讯下跌 5%，这至少可以说很有趣。此外……完成此事的合作伙伴 https://t.co/pYPZ5Bpo8E
英文原文
$NBIS signs $1B+ compute agreement with Reflection AI, for GB300 access through 2029. Reflection also signed a multi-billion dollar agreement with $SPCX earlier. Interesting to say the least, seeing Nebius drop -5% off the news today. Also... counterparty to get this done https://t.co/pYPZ5Bpo8E
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Tower Semi 获日政府支持扩产硅光子及先进封装，目标净利12亿。
今天 $TSEM 和 $AAOI 分别发布了不同的产能扩张公告。 在日本政府的支持下，Tower Semi 宣布扩大其 300mm 硅光子(SiPho)、硅锗(SiGe)以及先进封装产能。 目标净利润为 12 亿美元，https://t.co/M90OpVVUqE
英文原文
Two different capacity expansion announcements today across $TSEM and $AAOI. Tower Semi, supported by the Japanese government, announced expansion of its 300mm Silicon Photonics (SiPho), Silicon Germanium (SiGe), and advanced packaging capabilities. Targeting $1.2B net profit, https://t.co/M90OpVVUqE
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AAOI无CPO中标，MTSI商业化时间待定，CPO激光器进展不明。
@IrisWan39849142 $AAOI 的收入主要来自可插拔模块，他们正在开发/送样相关激光器，但没有共封装光学(CPO)的设计中标。其他像 $MTSI 这样的公司似乎在 CPO 激光器领域莫名消失了。CEO 表示商业化时间“待定”，目前正处于可靠性测试阶段。
英文原文
@IrisWan39849142 $AAOI mainly gets revenue from pluggable, they’re developing/sampling related lasers but have no CPO design wins. Others like $MTSI look like they fell off the map for some reason with cpo lasers. CEO says “TBD” with commercial timing and it’s in reliability work right now. And
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摩根士丹利研报梳理CPO产业链各环节关键参与者。
摩根士丹利今日发布关于共封装光学(CPO)的研报。关键参与者包括： - 激光供应：$SIVE、$COHR 和 $LITE - 交换平台：博通(Broadcom) 和英伟达(Nvidia) - 光学引擎与光子学：Lightmatter、Ayar Labs、Marvell/Celestial 和 POET - 硅光子学(Silicon Photonics)：$TSM、$GFS 和 $TSEM https://t.co/mmz6y0J3cp
英文原文
Morgan Stanley note on CPO today. Key participants include: - $SIVE, $COHR, and $LITE in laser supply - Broadcom and Nvidia in switch platforms - Lightmatter, Ayar Labs, Marvell/Celestial, and POET in optical engines and photonics, - $TSM, $GFS, and $TSEM in silicon photonics https://t.co/mmz6y0J3cp
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GLW短期难替代FAU；Starlink扩产或致CCL交换机产能瓶颈。
简要回顾 TLDR： - 据摩根士丹利，$GLW 玻璃桥接(glass bridge)有潜力，但短期内难以取代 FAU（如 FOCI）。 - $SPCX Starlink 第三代正扩展至 10 万台（是上一代的 10 倍），可能给转向覆铜板(CCL)的交换机供应商带来产能瓶颈。 - PCB
英文原文
Just a semi recap TLDR: - $GLW glass bridge per Morgan Stanley has potential, but hard to displace FAU (like FOCI) in short term - $SPCX Starlink Gen 3 is scaling to 100,000 units (10x prev gen) creating possible capacity constraints for suppliers of switches to CCL. - PCB
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博主正在深入研究日本化学工业。
刚才正在深入研究日本化学工业(Nippon Chemical)……
英文原文
Was just doing more research into Nippon Chemical …
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IBK报告梳理波士顿动力Atlas机器人供应链及主要零部件供应商。
上个月有一份 IBK Research 关于波士顿动力(Boston Dynamics)价值链的报告。简要总结如下：IBK 将这些公司映射为 Atlas 的供应商：Hwashin (010690) / 身体、手臂、腿部；LG Energy (373220) / 电池；Hyundai Autoever (307950) / 集成；Hyundai Mobis https://t.co/gzEABoVIQC
英文原文
So there's a IBK Research report on Boston Dynamics value chains from last month. Just a summary: IBK maps these companies to Atlas as suppliers: - Hwashin (010690) / body, arms, legs - LG Energy (373220) / battery - Hyundai Autoever (307950) / integration - Hyundai Mobis https://t.co/gzEABoVIQC
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4APR或已定价，鲑鱼DNA处理或成新瓶颈
@ANMcapital 4APR（4-氨基吡咯并[2,3-d]嘧啶）可能已被定价。但也许鲑鱼DNA处理（Salmon DNA processing）会成为新的瓶颈，因为女性将其用于面部乳液的量很大……
英文原文
@ANMcapital APR might be priced in. But maybe salmon DNA processing might be a new bottleneck from the amount women use for face lotion...
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分析某AI巨头通过融资博弈独立并建立万亿市值的路径
@SpongeQuant 如果没有完成所有这些操作，他不可能建立起一家万亿美元市值的公司。 - 获得埃隆的资助 -> 独立运营惹恼了 $TSLA - 获得 $MSFT 的资助 -> 通过引入其他超大规模云厂商注资稀释微软股份，惹恼了微软 - 获得 $NVDA 的资助 -> 为他们构建...
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@SpongeQuant He wouldn't have build a $1T company without pulling off all those moves. - Gets funding from Elon -> Pisses off $TSLA going independent - Gets funding from $MSFT -> Pisses of Microsoft by diluting them with other hyperscaler funding - Gets funding from $NVDA -> Builds their
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OpenAI构建独立生态激怒七巨头，被视为真正的颠覆者。
这是一个逆向观点，但如果 Sam Altman / OpenAI 能激怒包括 $AAPL 在内的所有“七巨头(Mag7)”，说明他们做对了什么。他们正在构建自己的生态系统，而不是被卷入另一个生态。自 $GOOGL、苹果、微软等公司以来，已经很久没有出现过真正的颠覆者了。
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Contrarian take, but Sam Altman / OpenAI is doing something right if he's pissing off every Mag7 like $AAPL. By building their own ecosystem instead of being sucked into another. It's been awhile since $GOOGL, Apple, Microsoft, and others had some genuine disruptors.
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SIVE采用多发射器DFB阵列实现CPO，其总功率与单激光器方案相当。
@siflower 它是架构无关的。超高功率(UHP)输出可以通过单个连续波激光器实现，也可以通过多发射器连续波DFB阵列实现，后者正是 $SIVE 在共封装光学(CPO)领域采用的方案。因为后者的总输出功率是可比的。
英文原文
@siflower It’s architecture neutral. UHP output can be achieved with a single cw laser or multi emitter cw dfb array which is what $SIVE is doing for CPO. Since the latter aggregate output is comparable.
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AMZN回应AAOI看空报告，称已对网络优化建模。
关于 $AMZN RNG 与 OpenAI 的 MRC 及 VCSEL 技术。这似乎是对 B. Riley 发布的 $AAOI 卖出报告的一种间接回应，该报告称优化措施“使网络扁平化并削减光收发器 TAM 40-50%”。Rosenblatt 的要点是：他们已对此建模，尽管每个 XPU...
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Regarding $AMZN RNG + OpenAI’s MRC and VCSELs. In what appears to be an indirect response on B. Riley's $AAOI sell report regarding optimizations that "flattens networks and cuts transceiver TAM 40-50%". Rosenblatt TLDR: They've already modeled for this, even though each XPU https://t.co/A41ceTqKwJ
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Rosenblatt认为光学板块短期疲软源于CPO延迟及产能恐慌，看空逻辑存疑。
Rosenblatt 关于近期从 $AAOI 到 $LITE 的光学板块疲软： “由于共封装光学(CPO)延迟报道和中国产能恐慌，光学板块股票在过去1-2个月表现不佳。” “我们认为空头……并不真正强烈相信这一看空逻辑。” 多个 https://t.co/C9QTiFOPlH
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Rosenblatt on recent optical sector weakness from $AAOI to $LITE: "Stocks in the Optical sector have traded poorly for the last 1-2 months" due to CPO delay reports and China capacity scares. "We think short sellers... do not actually strongly believe in the thesis." Multiple https://t.co/C9QTiFOPlH
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美资买盘或造成结构性影响，TSM溢价印证此观点。
@yuntungshieh 嗯，也许美国买盘的涌入可能会产生结构性影响？ 但我确信，正如 $TSM 所表现出的溢价那样，情况大概如此。
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@yuntungshieh Hmm, maybe the influx of US buying pressure might have have a structural impact though? But I'm sure that's probably the case with a premium as seen with $TSM.
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博主对SK海力士后续发展表示好奇
我其实非常好奇，当 SK 海力士(SK Hynix)……
英文原文
I'm actually very curious what happens when SK Hyn…
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预测人形机器人普及度将超汽车，成本与性能将类比计算机发展
@zhouyuan888 我猜测人形机器人(Humanoids)的普及程度将超过汽车。人们看到目前“5万-10万美元+”的物料清单(BOM)成本，认为人类能做得更好。但这关乎未来：我认为两者的普及度/成本最终会像计算机一样。在技术上，我们将看到人形机器人在...方面超越人类
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@zhouyuan888 My guess is humanoids will be more widespread then cars. People see the "50k-100k+" BOM cost now and think humans can do better. But it's about the future: I think both ubiquity/cost will end up like computers. And technologically, we'll see humanoids outperform humans in
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三菱汽车联手Highlanders，多家车企加速布局人形机器人供应链。
三菱汽车加入机器人竞赛，计划于 2027 年部署人形机器人工人。与日本机器人公司 Highlanders 合作。- Agility $CCXI x 富士康、丰田 - Apptronik x $JBL、梅赛德斯 - Highlanders x 三菱 - Figure x 宝马 - 波士顿动力 x 现代（子公司） https://t.co/jkG6RgNrjG
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Mitsubishi Motors joins robotics race to deploy humanoid workers by 2027. Pairing with Highlanders, a Japanese robotics company. - Agility $CCXI x Foxconn, Toyota - Apptronik x $JBL, Mercedes - Highlanders x Mitsubishi - Figure × BMW - Boston Dynamics x Hyundai (subsidiaries) https://t.co/jkG6RgNrjG
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澄清谣言后散户投降，光子学与英伟达路线图成焦点。
是的，目睹散户投降（retail capitulation）很有趣。在我们澄清了彭博社关于 Meta 计算（Meta compute）的文章（通过其内部备忘录）之后。以及英伟达（Nvidia）否认了两份关于延迟的报告之后。这两件事正是最初引发抛售的原因……所以，光子学（Photonics）/ 英伟达的路线图
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Yep, it’s interesting to witness retail capitulation. After we got Bloomberg Meta compute article cleared up by their internal memo. And the 2 reports on delays were denied by Nvidia. Both of which caused the selloff in the first place... So Photonics / Nvidia’s roadmap
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对比TSLA与CCXI在美产路径及供应链本土化程度的差异。
@NullContex1s 我认为情况很微妙： - $TSLA 拥有最清晰的缩小美中大规模生产差距的路径。但为了实现这一点，大多数组件似乎源自中国？ - $CCXI 目前拥有一座机器人制造工厂(RoboFab)，年产能为 1 万+ 台，且 75%+ 的组件源自美国。 所以
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@NullContex1s It's nuanced, IMO: - $TSLA has the clearest path to close the gap between US/China in mass production. But to get this done, majority of components seem sourced from China? - $CCXI right now has a RoboFab for 10K+ units/year, and 75%+ of components sourced from the US. So
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中国主导人形机器人出口，美国技术拐点或已至。
中国正在出口全球约 90% 的人形机器人。我们不能继续轻视他们。 埃隆的评论：“暂时如此”。 与此同时，1X 今天发布了一段最先进的机器人手的视频。 看来美国人形机器人项目的拐点已经到来？ 两者 https://t.co/IrYFokdIDq
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"China is shipping ~90% of the world's humanoid robots. We cannot keep taking them lightly." Elon's comment: "For now" Meanwhile, 1X today posts a video of the most advanced humanoid hand. Looks like the inflection point for American humanoid programs is here? Both https://t.co/IrYFokdIDq
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Meta内部备忘录显示AI算力及供应链投入加速，2027年翻倍。
没有什么比内部 $META 备忘录被公开更令人兴奋的了。 显示 AI 正在按常规加速： - 与三星和 $SNDK 签署长期协议(LTA)以采购内存 - 与住友电气签署长期协议(LTA)以采购光纤 - 预计今年部署 7GW 计算基础设施，2027 年翻倍。 - 高达 1450 亿美元 https://t.co/5GagBkPVNA
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Nothing like an internal $META memo getting published. Showing AI ramping as usual: - LTAs signed with Samsung and $SNDK for memory - LTAs signed with Sumitomo Electric for fiber optics - Expected to deploy 7GW compute infra this year, and doubling in 2027. - as much as $145B https://t.co/5GagBkPVNA
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xAI发布高效Grok 4.5，效仿中国厂商以性价比竞争。
哇，看来 Elon 和 xAI 在 $SPCX 上成功构建了具有 Anthropic Opus 级别能力的 Grok 4.5 大语言模型。而且成本效率更高……这有点像中国厂商为了在价格+采用率上竞争所采取的策略。（鉴于中国模型的增长，这确实是一件理想的事 https://t.co/8M5Yx3kbTg）
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Wow, looks like Elon + xAI at $SPCX managed to build an Anthropic Opus-level LLM with Grok 4.5. That’s much more cost efficient as well… Kinda emulating what Chinese vendors have been doing to compete on pricing + adoption. (Which is an ideal thing given Chinese model growth https://t.co/8M5Yx3kbTg
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建议通过合作伙伴JBL的LRO认证进度来映射SIVE的业务进展。
@Emre07465060084 对于这种与 $SIVE 相关的映射，查看其合作伙伴及其时间表是个好主意。 - $JBL 通过摩根大通(JPM)壁炉边访谈确认，他们在 1.6T 长距光模块(LRO)方面拥有相对显著的护城河，并且正在进行的资格认证将在未来 1-4 个月内完成（2 个月前）。所以应该是 https://t.co/t7xGHCeLTb
英文原文
@Emre07465060084 For this type of mapping with $SIVE, it's a good idea look at their partners and their timelines. - $JBL confirmed via JPM fireside chat they have a relatively dramatic moat with their 1.6T LRO and are getting qualified done over next 1-4 months (2 months ago). So should be https://t.co/t7xGHCeLTb
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西班牙资源可缓解美国对中国稀土依赖
@AlienMShroom 西班牙拥有美国所需的锂、钨和其他稀土元素。而中国恰好对这些实施出口管制……美国需要尽可能多的合作伙伴。
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@AlienMShroom Spain has lithium, tungsten, and other rare earths America needs. That China happens to be export controlling…The US needs all the partners it can keep.
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博主认为存储和AI股基本面强劲，当前下跌仅为去杠杆导致的短期波动。
@QiIris96081 我的意思是，鉴于它们拥有巨额的营业利润/增长，我对存储和AI概念股能够复苏相当有信心。 我认为基本面没有任何问题，尤其是在三星财报之后。 目前只是经历了一场相当剧烈的去杠杆/利润率级联反应。
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@QiIris96081 I mean I’m pretty confident memory and AI names recover just cause of the whopping amount of operating profit/growth they have. I don’t think there’s anything fundamentally wrong, especially after the Samsung earnings. Just a pretty wild deleveraging/margin cascade right now
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中国激光雷达若被禁，美企及上游光学商或受益，但博主质疑其实际影响。
@jey0316 基本上： > 主要中国激光雷达(LiDAR)厂商可能在西方被禁。 > $OUST、$AEVA 等通过填补真空受益。 > 为西方激光雷达厂商（如 Aeva）提供动力的光学厂商也因收入增加而受益。 鉴于此，我不确定这则新闻是否真的重要
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@jey0316 Basically: > major Chinese lidar player might be banned in West. > $OUST, $AEVA, and others benefit by filling in the vacuum > optical players players that power western lidar players like Aeva also benefit from increased revenue Not sure if this news really matters given
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禾赛遭美审查，西方激光雷达厂商因竞争减少而受益。
中国激光雷达制造商禾赛科技（Hesai Technology）因其与 $NVDA 的扩大合作及激光雷达传感器业务，正面临美国方面的国家安全审查。对于 $OUST、$AEVA 及西方激光雷达同行而言，若竞争对手因监管被清退，这总体上是利好消息。鉴于此前已有警告称：传感器可能 https://t.co/9ZmvOqIHrv
英文原文
Hesai Technology, a Chinese lidar maker faces US national scrutiny over its expanded partnership with $NVDA and lidar sensors. For $OUST, $AEVA, and Western lidar bros, this is generally positive if competitors get regulated out. Since there were warnings that: Sensors could https://t.co/9ZmvOqIHrv
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中美人形机器人产量差距巨大，呼吁美企追赶及政府补贴。
美国为何如此落后？ 新华社：中国的人形机器人(Humanoid Robots)产量预计今年将突破10万台。 即便摩根士丹利最初对2026年的预测也仅为1.4万台…… 真的需要埃隆的 $TSLA、$CCXI (Agility)、Apptronik 和 Figure 迎头赶上。并且需要更多的美国政府补贴给 https://t.co/y38EIhiUaB
英文原文
How is the US so far behind? Xinhua: China's output of humanoids are expected to hit 100,000+ this year. Even Morgan Stanley originally projected 14,000 for 2026... Really need Elon's $TSLA, $CCXI (Agility), Apptronik, and Figure to catchup. And for more US Gov. subsidies to https://t.co/y38EIhiUaB