供应链分析
产业链结构、上下游与瓶颈环节研究 · 共 1413 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
-
SIVE CEO称可插拔模块将长期存在，CPO为行业方向，激光器产能是瓶颈。
不完全适用于 $AAOI（他们也在研发共封装光学(CPO)，只是商业化进度稍落后）。 最近有一档名为“市场洞察：光子学与AI”的播客采访了 $SIVE 的CEO。 最有趣的观点是： “可插拔光模块在未来10年仍将存在”。 近期有很多关于CPO和RNG/MRC优化将蚕食可插拔模块总可寻址市场(TAM)的论点，但看来可插拔模块将长期存在。 而且未来会有多种架构路径并行（CEO也表示，除了CPO，非平面光学(NPO)在未来5年也是主要机会）。 至于挑战：Vickram表示，制造产能和原材料供应是主要瓶颈。这可能指的是上游连续波(CW)激光器扩产面临的现有瓶颈。 从播客来看，重点似乎放在可插拔市场，因为其短期TAM更大（考虑到 $JBL 和其他玩家，这可以理解），而CPO则是行业发展的北极星指标。 因此，如果 $SIVE 能通过并购获取更多可插拔光收发器IP（就像 $LITE 收购Cloud Light那样），可能会很有趣。 但简而言之： 未来路径多样，可插拔模块将长期存在，CPO似乎是行业发展的北极星方向。 感觉鉴于行业需求增长速度快于所有供应商的集体产能，合格的激光器供应商都有生存空间。
英文原文
Not exactly for $AAOI (they're working on CPO too, just a little further behind in commercialization). There's a podcast that featured the $SIVE CEO recently called: "Market Insights: Photonics & AI". Most interesting take was: "Pluggables will be around for the next 10 years". There's a lot of CPO + RNG/MRC optimization TAM cannablization arguments for pluggables recently, but looks like it's here to stay. And that there's going to be multiple architecture paths going forward (CEO also NPO alongside CPO as an major opportunity in the next 5 years). As for challenges: Vickram stated manufacturing capacity + availability of raw material is the main bottleneck. Likely referencing the existing bottlenecks with upstream CW laser ramp. From the podcast, seems like a large focus was on pluggable markets due to larger near-term TAM (which is understandable with $JBL + other players), with CPO being the north star. So it might be interesting if $SIVE M&A ambitions were to acquire more pluggable optical transceiver IP, like what $LITE did with Cloud Light. But TLDR: Lot of different paths moving forward, pluggable here to stay, CPO seems like North Star for where industry is heading. Feels like there's room for every qualified laser supplier given the industry demand is growing faster than what they can all collectively make.
-
调研反馈积极，看好AMD CPO路线及上游激光器供应商SIVE。
@88magalhaes 主要看点是高管对共封装光学(CPO)主题性的评论。涉及 $AMD 以及超大规模云服务商的采用情况和时间表。针对此前因延迟消息而抛售的 CPO 板块，调研反馈非常积极。对于该板块中的 $SIVE 反馈也非常积极，因为它是 Ayar 和 $GFS 的激光器供应商，而这两家公司都与 $AMD 可能的 CPO 路线有关。但由于保密原因，无法获得直接供应商的确认。
英文原文
@88magalhaes Main thing was executive commentary on CPO thematically. Regarding $AMD + hyperscaler adoption + timelines. Checks were very positive for the CPO segment that sold off on delay news. And very positive for $SIVE in that segment, since they're the laser supplier for Ayar, $GFS, that are both linked with possible $AMD CPO routes. But couldn't get direct supplier confirmation since that's confidential.
-
渠道称AMD将采用CPO，且供应链无延迟，反驳延迟报告。
来自 $AMD 推进 AI 的渠道调研： Helios 网络设备合作伙伴告诉我，他们预计 AMD 将在未来几代 Helios 扩展网络中采用共封装光学(CPO)。 并预计其他超大规模客户+行业也会走上 CPO 路线。 一位参与超大规模客户 CPO 项目的 AI 基础设施高管表示，他们未看到 CPO 扩展供应链有任何延迟迹象。 这反驳了近期第三方关于延迟的报道。 这是非正式评论，并非 AMD 或合作伙伴的官方指引。
英文原文
From $AMD Advancing AI, channel checks: Helios networking partners told me they expect AMD to pursue CPO for future generations of Helios scale up networking. And expects other hyperscalers + industry to go down the CPO route. One AI infra executive at a company involved in a hyperscaler CPO programs said they had seen no indication of CPO scale up supply chain delays. Pushing back on recent 3rd party delay reports. This was informal commentary, not official AMD or partner guidance.
-
博主确认演讲重点提及CPU市场总规模正在快速增长。
@Double0Capital 没错！她演讲的很大一部分内容也是关于华盛顿特区（DC）的中央处理器(CPU)总可寻址市场(TAM)正在飞速增长。 https://t.co/Apy09Bs6W1
英文原文
@Double0Capital Yep! Large part of her speech was DC CPU TAM going brrr too. https://t.co/Apy09Bs6W1
-
AI算力瓶颈从CPU扩展至全产业链，长期协议锁定需求，利好瓶颈环节投资。
$INTC 和 $AMD 将与中国客户签署针对 AI 数据中心 (AI DCs) 的 CPU 长期协议 (LTAs)（路透社）。据消息源称，年初以来部分 CPU 产品在中国的价格已上涨超过 40%。部分产品环比涨幅超过 10%。受 AI 推理 (AI inference) 的 CPU 配比影响，CPU 本身已是瓶颈。但更广泛的长期协议 (LTAs) 趋势似乎正从以下领域显现：内存方面，$MU、三星、$SNDK 和 SK 海力士签署 DRAM/NAND 长期协议；光子学方面，$LITE、$COHR 签署 EML 长期协议。且 Trendforce 近期报告称 $AMD 和超大规模云厂商正追求 CW 长期协议。我相信从 MLCC 到基板等更多领域也是如此。瓶颈投资者 +1……如果拥有跨越多年的“提货或付款”需求，很难成为“破裂的泡沫”。
英文原文
$INTC and $AMD to sign CPU LTAs with Chinese customers for AI DCs (Reuters). - Prices of some CPU products have risen more than 40% in China since the start of the year from sources. - Month-on-month increases topping 10% for some products CPUs were already a bottleneck, following CPU ratios due to AI inference... But the broader trend of LTAs seems to be appearing from: - Memory, with $MU, Samsung, $SNDK, and SK Hynix signing DRAM/NAND LTAs. - Photonics, with $LITE, $COHR signing EML LTAs. And recent Trendforce reports that $AMD and hyperscalers are now pursuing CW LTAs. And I'm sure there's many more from MLCCs to all the way to substrates. +1 for the bottleneck investors... hard to be a "bubble that pops" if you have take or pay demand spanning multiple years.
-
马斯克极度看好人形机器人，特斯拉正从零构建新供应链，利好上游供应商。
以下是来自 $TSLA 财报电话会议的一些笔记： 埃隆·马斯克在 Q2 财报中表示：“我认为 Optimus 将是史上最大的产品。” 早在 Q1，马斯克就说过：“我认为 Optimus 将是我们的最大产品。不仅是特斯拉有史以来最大的产品，可能也是史上最大的产品。我依然坚信这一结论。” 很难看到马斯克在方向性和总可寻址市场(TAM)上对人形机器人表现出如此高的确信度并反复重申。 在上游供应商机会方面，$TSLA 供应链副总裁 Karn Budhiraj 表示： “我们看到对存储器的投资力度相同，还有金属注射成型(MIM)部件、柔性印刷电路(FPC)以及各种非线性技术等新项目……” 并且他们不得不从零开始建立新的供应链。因此，除了已知的供应商外，寻找新的供应链供应商机会会很有趣。 我翻看了旧幻灯片，看起来 Fremont 工厂的产能目标是 100 万台，Giga Texas 是 1000 万台，所以从规模上看，$TSLA 似乎是美国明确的领导者。如果你关注 S 型曲线机会的爬坡。 顺便一提，马斯克也点名表扬了 $MU，鉴于他的声明，可能以合理价格签订了长期协议(LTA)： “我们非常感谢美光在未来几年为特斯拉腾出空间，并在当前内存价格极其疯狂的情况下，以非常合理的条款给予我们相当可观的配额。”（仅针对结构性内存需求）。 马斯克还点名表扬了松下，后者投资了数十亿美元增加电池电芯生产（之后需要对松下进行更深入的基本面研究 DD），以及三星和 $TSM。 特斯拉财报要点 TLDR： 马斯克在判断未来方向（如电动汽车或太空）时往往是对的。 他似乎对人形机器人极度看好。
英文原文
Just some notes from $TSLA transcripts: Elon Musk: "I think Optimus will be the biggest product ever" from Q2 earnings transcripts. Even from Q1, Elon Stated: "I think Optimus will be our biggest product. Not just Tesla's biggest product ever, but probably the biggest product ever. And I remain convinced of that conclusion". It's very rare to see such high conviction reiterated from Elon regarding humanoids both directionally and TAM-wise. In terms of upstream suppliers opportunities, Karn Budhiraj, VP of $TSLA supply chains stated: "We’re seeing the same level of investment going to memory and also new specific items like metal injection molded parts, flexible printed circuits, and all sorts of nonlinear technologies..." And that they had to build new supply chains from scratch. So would be interesting to look at for new supply chain supplier opportunities apart from the known ones. Just pulled older slides and it looks like capacity targets for Fremont are 1M and Giga Texas was 10M, so at scale, $TSLA seems to be the clear US leader. If you're looking at that S-Curve opportunity ramp. On a side note, Elon also gave a shoutout to $MU with likely reasonably priced LTAs, given his statement: "We really appreciate Micron making room for Tesla in the years to come and giving us actually a very significant allocation on reasonable terms given the pretty insane pricing of memory these days." (Just for structural memory demand). Elon also gave a shoutout to Panasonic which had invested many billions in increasing battery cell production (will need to do deeper DD into Panasonic after this), then Samsung and $TSM. Just takeaways from Tesla earnings TLDR: Elon tends to be directionally correct on where the future is heading, such as with EV or Space. He seems extremely bullish on humanoids.
-
AI资本支出利好上游半导体，但市场担忧谷歌自身支出。
@haranguetan_ 在评论之前，具备一点点阅读理解能力会有所帮助。 AI资本支出(Capex) -> 流向内存、光子学、晶圆代工厂等上游半导体领域。这些参与者乐在其中。 $GOOGL 本身正在花钱，所以市场可能不喜欢他们（指谷歌）这一点。 但对于接收这些资金的参与者来说，这是积极的。
英文原文
@haranguetan_ Having an iota of reading comphrension helps a bit before commenting. AI Capex -> goes to upstream semis from memory, photonics, foundries, and others. These players are happy. $GOOGL itself is spending the money, so markets might not like that for them in specific. But it's positive to the players that receive that capital.
-
超大规模云厂商上调AI资本支出，利好光网络板块财报表现。
@200pipss 超大规模云服务商上调人工智能资本支出指引，这一趋势尤其将在光网络（Optical Networking）板块的财报中体现出来。观察并学习……
英文原文
@200pipss Hyperscalers upping AI capex revisions is especially going to show up on optical networking earnings. Watch and learn...
-
GOOGL上调26财年资本支出指引，利好上游半导体供应链。
$GOOGL 更新 2026 财年资本支出(capex)指引： 上调至 1950 亿-2050 亿美元。此前为 1800 亿-1900 亿美元。 预计 Google 在 2027 年也将大幅增加资本支出。 这或许是超大规模云服务商对上游半导体最看多的解读。 https://t.co/dXiI0Ien8X
英文原文
$GOOGL updates FY 2026 capex guidance: To $195B-$205B. Up from $180B-$190B. Google is also expected to significantly increase capex in 2027. This is perhaps the most bullish read through on upstream semis from a hyperscaler. https://t.co/dXiI0Ien8X
-
AMD投资Anthropic并获巨额芯片订单，效仿英伟达模式
$AMD 将投资 50 亿美元于 Anthropic。Anthropic 反过来将签署一份价值数百亿美元的协议，购买 AMD 最新的芯片，规模为 2 GW。看起来他们是在效仿去年 $NVDA 与 Anthropic 的合作模式。
英文原文
$AMD to invest $5B in Anthropic. Anthropic in turn will sign a 2 GW deal to buy AMD’s latest chips, worth tens of billions of dollars. Looks like they’re copying the $NVDA playbook with Anthropic last year. https://t.co/SXBUq65u6P
-
传闻AMD洽谈成为AAOI客户，博主将实地求证。
@CarterChen18 据罗森布拉特(Rosenblatt)渠道调查显示，$AMD 曾洽谈成为 $AAOI 的客户。这可能是一个选项，我会在活动期间四处打听。 https://t.co/8eDrSw9tCe
英文原文
@CarterChen18 Think $AMD was in talks of being a customer of $AAOI, from Rosenblatt channel checks. Could be an option, I'll ask around in the event. https://t.co/8eDrSw9tCe
-
AMD活动或确认CPO路线，利好SIVE等上游光模块供应商。
情况稍显微妙。基本上，$AMD 的 SF 活动将在明天（周三/周四，7月22-23日）举行。根据杰富瑞(Jefferies)的客户笔记，AMD 预计将提供更多关于其可能的大规模扩展共封装光学(CPO)路线图及 MI500 的披露信息。如果他们确认 CPO 路线，这在主题上将是积极的，因为这意味着不仅仅是 $NVDA 在推动这一转型。至于 $SIVE，如果确认他们直接处于 AMD 供应链中，我们将获得更清晰的认知。目前，可以通过 $GFS（据报道参与 AMD MI500 CPO 工作）或 AYAR（AMD 投资的公司）进行映射，但尚无正式确认。因此，如果你正在交易：- CPO 主题利好：MI500 明确承诺采用 CPO/光互联 UALink。- AMD 披露使用 Ayar Labs 或 GF SCALE 用于 MI500 CPO：鉴于 $SIVE 是上游激光器供应商/参考激光器，这对他们将极其利好。目前，杰富瑞的 Blayne Curtis 预计 AMD 将与 $ALAB 合作 UAL，与 $AVGO 合作 ESUN……但关键细节如下：“我们关注 AMD 是否承诺基于 CPO 的大规模扩展解决方案，以及谁提供光引擎”。周三/周四我们将通过供应链获得更广泛的认知，今天尚早，难以定论。
英文原文
It's slightly more nuanced. Basically, $AMD SF event is tomorrow, Wed/Thurs (July 22, 23). From Jefferies client note, AMD is expected to provide additional disclosures around their likely scale-up CPO roadmap + MI500. If they confirm CPO route, would positive thematically since it's not just $NVDA forcing the transition. As for $SIVE, we'll get a better read if they're directly in AMD supply chains. Since right now, it's possible to map it through $GFS (reportedly involved in AMD MI500 CPO work) or AYAR (which AMD invested in). But no formal confirmations. So if you're turning in: - CPO thematic positive: MI500 explicitly commits to CPO/optical UALink. - AMD gives details using Ayar Labs or GF SCALE for MI500 CPO: That would be extremely positive for $SIVE, given they're the upstream laser supplier / reference laser. Currently, Blayne Curtis from Jefferies expect AMD to work with $ALAB on UAL and $AVGO on ESUN... but juicy details are here: "We are looking for whether AMD commits to a CPO based scale up solution and who supplies the optical engine" We'll get a broader read through on the supply chain come Wednesday/Thursday, too early to tell today.
-
AI全产业链普涨，博主质疑克莱默效应是否驱动整体行情。
铠侠(Kioxia)的存储板块收盘大涨17.18%。三星(Samsung)上涨6.15%。 来自 $SIVE、$LITE 和 $AAOI 的光网络板块显示出复苏迹象，均上涨4%以上。 从 $NBIS 到 $IREN 的“新云”(Neoclouds)板块盘前均上涨4%以上。 $INTC 到 $AMD 再到 $MRVL 均上涨4%以上。 “克莱默效应”(Cramer effect)对整个AI交易都有效吗？
英文原文
Memory names from Kioxia finished up a whopping +17.18%. Samsung up +6.15%. Optical networking from $SIVE, $LITE, and $AAOI are showing signs of recovery, all up 4%+. Neoclouds from $NBIS to $IREN all up 4%+ premarket. $INTC to $AMD to $MRVL all up 4%+. Does the Cramer effect work on the entire AI trade?
-
Neoclouds/Colo板块受新合同及算力短缺催化强劲复苏
$IREN 因将新 AI 云合同带来的 ARR 目标从此前水平上调至 40 亿美元以上，上涨 19.69%。其客户群现包括微软、英伟达、Perplexity 和 Figure。 $HUT 因一份 15 年期 98 亿美元的 AI 数据中心租赁协议上涨 10.45%。 $CIFR 上涨 16.76% $CLSK 上涨 13.7% $WYFI 上涨 9.18% $NBIS 和 $CRWV 还在慢慢磨（反应滞后）。 但看起来，随着 Kimi 算力短缺新闻和新合同等新催化剂的出现，Neoclouds/Colo 玩家正在强劲复苏。
英文原文
$IREN +19.69% after revising ARR target to $4B+ from new AI cloud contracts. Its customer base now includes Microsoft, Nvidia, Perplexity, and Figure. $HUT +10.45% off a 15Y $9.8B AI DC lease $CIFR +16.76% $CLSK +13.7% $WYFI +9.18% $NBIS and $CRWV are taking their time in the shower. But does look like Neoclouds/Colo players are sharply recovering following new catalysts, such as Kimi compute shortage news and new contracts.
-
梳理AI供应链各环节瓶颈周期及对应厂商，指出材料短缺现状。
关于瓶颈时间表的更新： - ABF基板：1年 / 例如味之素(2802)生产ABF膜，伊藤忠、欣兴电子、南电PCB等制造基板 - HDI板：超过6个月 / 胜宏科技(300476)、正崴(4958)、欣兴电子、康强电子(2313)、美科(6787) - 多层板：约6个月 / 胜宏科技、沪电股份(002463)、$TTMI、金电路电子(2368) - CCL(覆铜板)：超过6个月（材料严重短缺） / 台光电(2383)、生益科技(600183)、台光电子(6274)、ITEQ(6213)、南亚塑胶(1303)、Resonac(4004) 三井金属(5706) / HVLP(高垂直拉伸比)铜箔。日东纺 / 玻璃纤维/布 - MLCC(多层陶瓷电容器)、芯片电阻、钽电容、铝电解电容：15-20周至1年以上 MLCC：村田(6981)、三星电机、TDK(6762)、太阳诱电(6976)、国巨(2327)、华新科(2492) 芯片电阻：国巨、华新科、KOA(6999)、罗姆(6963)和$VSH 钽电容：京瓷/AVX、国巨/KEMET、再次提到$VSH 铝电解电容：日本化工(6997)、Nichicon(6996) | 时间表源自Digitimes，我负责补充了相关公司。 但这稍微更复杂，因为MLCC等混合了大宗商品类型与AI数据中心需求。 无论如何，这是一些有用的映射。
英文原文
Some updates on bottleneck timelines: - ABF substrates: 1 year / eg. Ajinomoto (2802) for ABF film, Ibiden, Unimicron, Nan Ya PCB, etc make the substrates - HDI Boards: Over 6 months / Victory Giant (300476), Zhen Ding (4958), Unimicron, Compeq (2313), Meiko (6787) - Multilayer boards: ~6 months / Victory Giant, WUS (002463), $TTMI, Gold Circuit Electronics (2368), - CCL: Over 6 months (severe shortages of materials) / Elite Material (2383), Shengyi (600183), TUC (6274), ITEQ (6213), Nan Ya Plastics (1303), Resonac (4004) Mitsui Kinzoku (5706) / HVLP copper foil. Nittobo / glass fiber/cloth - MLCCs, chip resistors, tantalum capacitors, aluminum electrolytic capacitors: 15-20 weeks to 1 year+ MLCC: Murata (6981), Samsung Electro-Mechanics, TDK (6762), Taiyo Yuden (6976), Yageo (2327), Walsin (2492) Chip Resistors: Yageo, Walsin, KOA (6999), Rohm (6963) and $VSH Tantalum capacitors: Kyocera/AVX, Yageo/KEMET, $VSH again Aluminum electrolytic capacitors: Nippon Chemi-Con (6997) Nichicon (6996) | Timelines sourced from Digitimes, did the honors of adding in related companies. But it's slightly more nuanced since MLCCs and others mix. in commodity types vs. AI DCs. Regardless, just some helpful mapping.
-
AI需求旺盛致模型产能不足，预示资本支出将持续增长。
周日闻到更多人工智能资本支出(AI capex)的气息，这种感觉无与伦比。如果领先的尖端模型(frontier models)因需求过旺而产能不足，可能还有很长的路要走。 https://t.co/d8mnuAQdLz
英文原文
There’s nothing quite like the scent of more AI capex on a Sunday. Probably some ways to go if leading frontier models are out of capacity from too much demand. https://t.co/d8mnuAQdLz
-
提醒关注SK海力士ADR转换及机构套利导致的溢价收敛。
@syl_52 我在这里不发布任何可操作的建议。只是给大家提个醒，关于 SK 海力士 (SK Hynix) 在 29 号的 ADR 时间线转换。如果机构决定进行套利，溢价可能会收敛。
英文原文
@syl_52 I'm not posting anything actionable here. Just giving people a heads up on about ADR timeline conversion for SK Hynix on the 29th. And that it's likely premiums might converge if institutions decide to arbitrage.
-
高盛上调中际旭创目标价及盈利预测，看好硅光子及光模块产业链前景。
谢谢，喜欢读评论！ 高盛将中际旭创(Innolight)的目标价上调至2581元人民币。较当前估值约有163.6%的上涨空间。 但最大亮点是其2026-2028年的盈利预测大幅上调，分别增长65%/108%/119%，基于： - 硅光子模块出货量大幅增加 - 扩展、扩容、跨领域出货量增长 - 1.6T/3.2T提升混合平均售价(ASP)和利润率 - AI资本支出增加 这通常对光通信板块有重大传导效应，因为： 我倾向于将中际旭创视为类似台积电($TSM)的半导体资本支出风向标，用以观察光子学领域的状况。 例如，硅光子渗透率提高意味着连续波激光器(如$SIVE)和SOI晶圆($SOI)的总可寻址市场(TAM)扩大。未来代际产品的ASP上涨对其他光模块厂商也是利好。 我认为报告之外的另一个要点是，中际旭创在12日的电话会议中表示，800G需求的增长比预期更显著。 这反过来预示着$AAOI和$LITE等公司在下一次财报季将面临更多需求。 简而言之：高盛在大幅回调期间给出了高盈利预测。 从根本上说，当财报季(ER)到来时，更广泛的光子学生态系统应该会感到高兴。
英文原文
Thanks, love reading the comments! Goldman Sachs raised Innolight PT to 2581 RMB. Roughly 163.6% upside from current valuations. But the largest thing is its 2026–2028 earnings est revision raised by a whopping 65%/108%/119%, based on: - Much higher silicon photonics module volumes - scale out, scale up, scale across volumes - 1.6T/3.2T lifting blended ASP + margins - increase in AI capex This is typically very material read through on the optical sector since: I tend to think of Innolight as a $TSM (semi capex) type read on how the photonics landscape is doing. Eg. Higher silicon photonics penetration means more TAM for cw lasers like $SIVE (cw) / SOI wafer demand for $SOI. ASP hikes for future gen is positive for the other optical markers too. Think my other takeaway outside the report was Innolight stating 800g demand was growing more significantly than expected from their transcript on the 12th. Which in turn signals more demand for names like $AAOI to $LITE next earnings. TLDR: GS gives high earnings projections during a time of massive corrections. Fundamentally, broader photonics ecosystem should be happy when it’s ER time.
-
META租赁算力验证Neocloud模式，超大规模云厂商在照搬作业。
$META 正在洽谈以 100 亿美元交易向 Anthropic 租赁算力。看来他们看到了 $SPCX 450 亿美元算力交易的盈利性。但这进一步验证了像 $NBIS、$IREN 等 Neocloud 商业模式的有效性，如果超大规模云服务商都在照搬他们的作业。来源：NYT https://t.co/3Mu3UXQtFT
英文原文
$META in talks to lease compute to Anthropic in a $10B dollar deal. Seems like they saw how profitable $SPCX $45B compute deal was. But just goes to validate Neocloud business models like $NBIS, $IREN, and co if hyperscalers are copying their homework. Source: NYT https://t.co/3Mu3UXQtFT
-
韩国散户遭强制平仓，证实近期崩盘由去杠杆而非基本面引发。
哇，据称韩国约 3.4% 的成年人口面临清算风险？ “截至 7 月 13 日，超过 120 万杠杆散户交易账户触及追保线，其中 32 万至 36 万账户被券商强制平仓。” （另有消息源称该数据来自高盛交易台，而非韩国金融监督服务机构数据） 无论如何，这仅仅是证据表明近期的崩盘是由清算级联/去杠杆加速的，而非基本面所致：
英文原文
Wow, apparently there’s claims ~3.4% of the adult population in Korea faces liquidation risk? “As of July 13, over 1.2 million leveraged retail traders' accounts hit margin call lines, with 320,000 to 360,000 accounts force-liquidated by brokers.” (There were other sources claiming this data came from Goldman Sachs desks rather than SK financial supervisory service data) Regardless, just evidence recent crash was accelerated by liquidation cascades/deleveraging rather than fundamentals:
-
CPO尚未规模化且存延迟风险，GLW玻璃桥接加剧不确定性。
@johnoao 共封装光学(CPO)尚未实现规模化量产。他们的大部分收益来自2028年FAU的总可寻址市场(TAM)。 由于CPO延迟报道和$GLW玻璃桥接技术，近期存在大量不确定性。 https://t.co/8kyWZ2x0Mw
英文原文
@johnoao CPO hasn’t scaled up yet. Lot of their earnings come from 2028 TAM for FAU. There’s just a lot of uncertainty recently due to CPO delay reports and $GLW glass bridge. https://t.co/8kyWZ2x0Mw
-
券商称DRAM短缺加剧，内存供需紧张将持续至2028年。
Meritz Securities的Kim Sunwoo：“现在不是抛售三星电子和$SKHY的时候。” 他们认为市场过度误解了半导体局势，且DRAM短缺将在今年下半年加剧。 - 2026年下半年：“供应商仅能满足75%–80%的DRAM需求”。 - 2027年：“满足率预计降至60%区间。” 文章中附带了市场预测，显示SK海力士2027年市盈率为3.5倍，三星为3.9倍。 认为$INTC CEO关于时间框架的言论最到位：“直到至少2028年，内存供应和价格都不会缓解”。 特别是在$MU签署16份有利的“提货或付款”长期协议后，内存需求似乎具有结构性。
英文原文
Kim Sunwoo of Meritz Securities: "This Is Not the Time to Sell Samsung Electronics and $SKHY" They claim markets are excessively misunderstanding the situation with semis. And that DRAM shortage will intensify in the second half of this year. - H2 2026: "suppliers can fulfill only 75%–80% of DRAM demand". - 2027: "fulfillment is expected to fall into the 60% range." In the article, they attached market forecasts that show SK Hynix with a 2027 3.5x P/E and Samsung a 3.9x P/E. Think the $INTC CEO said it best around timeframes with his quote "no relief in memory supply or pricing until at least 2028". Especially after $MU 16 LTAs with favorable take or pay volume contracts... memory demand seems structural.
-
博主认为半导体板块接近底部，Reddit散户爆仓是反向指标。
我猜测，从 $INTC 到 $LITE 的半导体板块已接近市场底部。一个很好的指标是，看看 $RDDT 上是否所有人都把投资组合亏到了 $0。
英文原文
My guess is we’re close to market bottom on semis from $INTC to $LITE. A good indicator is if everyone on $RDDT blew up their portfolios to $0. https://t.co/X1m9Yv1JuX
-
AI板块无差别大跌，高贝塔股波动剧烈，反弹亦具高波动性。
@blkslymn 我不确定你是否注意到，目前整个AI板块正在无差别下跌。像三星这样市值1万亿美元的公司本月下跌了26%。$MRVL 下跌了31%。因此，高贝塔值（High Beta）的标的往往波动更大，比如 $AAOI 和 $SIVE 下跌了50%。但随后的反弹往往也更具波动性，例如 $AEHR 在财报（ER）后单日上涨50%。
英文原文
@blkslymn I’m not sure if you’re aware but the entire AI sector is dropping indiscriminately right now. A $1T company like Samsung is down -26% this month. $MRVL is down -31%. So higher beta names tend to move a lot more like $AAOI and $SIVE with their 50% drops. But recoveries tend to be a lot more volatile like $AEHR 50% single day gain after ER.
-
摩根士丹利将SIVE列为CPO核心玩家，机构正利用其上市前的流动性错配。
@afasano23 摩根士丹利在3天前的研报中将 $SIVE 与 $LITE 和 $COHR 并列为三大核心共封装光学(CPO)激光器玩家。富达研究、摩根大通等机构已开始积极建仓。他们最近以57瑞典克朗的价格完成了一轮超额认购的机构融资。这一切都发生在美国纳斯达克上市之前。我个人认为，目前相对于远期收入存在短期流动性错配，我确信机构正在利用这一点。
英文原文
@afasano23 Morgan Stanley listed $SIVE as the three core CPO laser players alongside $LITE and $COHR in their note 3 days ago. Fidelity Research, JP Morgan and others have started to take active positions. They recently raised an oversubscribed institutional round at 57 SEK. This is all ahead of US NASDAQ listing. I personally see short term liquidity disconnects relative to forward revenue around now and I'm sure institutions are capitalizing on it.
-
美光签长协后股价反跌，博主认为这是去杠杆尾声而非基本面问题。
今天，$MU 宣布与 $QCOM 签署了存储长期协议(LTA)。有趣的是，美光随后立即下跌了 5.37%。鉴于签署了所有这些结构性协议，感觉存储或 AI 个股本身似乎并没有什么问题？这更像是去杠杆/利润率级联效应的尾声。
英文原文
Today, $MU announced it signed memory LTAs with $QCOM. Interesting reaction to see Micron proceeded to drop 5.37% right after. Doesn’t quite feel like there’s anything individually wrong with memory or AI names with all these structural agreements signed? More like the tail end of deleveraging / margin cascades.
-
存储与光模块基本面强劲，但市场反直觉抛售。
@michaelsikand 下季度DRAM涨价20%+，$SNDK与$META签长期协议，$MU签16+长期协议。市场：继续抛售存储股。800G光模块需求大幅上调？激光器售罄至2029年初？市场：抛售光电子和激光公司。
英文原文
@michaelsikand DRAM 20%+ hike for next quarter, $SNDK LTAs with $META, $MU 16+ LTAs. Market: proceeds to sell off memory. 800G transceiver revision sharply upward? Lasers completely sold out into early 2029? Market: sells off photonics and laser companies.
-
苹果或并购AI芯片公司并大幅上调资本支出，利好光网络及代工。
$AAPL 看起来打算收购 AI 芯片公司来运行 AI（来源：The Information）。目前，$MSFT、$META、Amazon、Google 正在承担 AI 资本支出。但如果苹果在并购后加入其他公司呢？一种可能的场景是，他们大幅上调资本支出以建设自己的 AI 基础设施。因为他们可能目睹了 Google 因算力限制切断 Meta 的情况……或者当你与 OpenAI 合作开发大语言模型时会发生什么。然后他们意识到拥有自己的基础设施有多么重要。从光学网络到晶圆代工厂，这一场景在主题上会相当看多，而且是市场意想不到的？让我们看看会发生什么。
英文原文
$AAPL looks to acquire AI chip companies for running AI (Source: The Information) Right now, $MSFT, $META, Amazon, Google are carrying AI capex spend. But what if Apple joined the others after M&A? A possible scenario is that they revise capex largely upward for their own AI buildout. Since they probably witnessed Google cutting off Meta from compute constraints... or what happens when you partner with OpenAI for LLMs. Then learned how important it is to have your own infrastructure. This scenario would be quite bullish thematically from optical networking to foundries and something markets would not expect? We'll see what happens.
-
转发 Rosenblatt 对光通信板块疲软的核查。
@avshushka 只是转发 Rosenblatt 频道关于光通信板块(CPO)疲软的核查： https://t.co/IhWhCqjZsD
英文原文
@avshushka Just forwarding the Rosenblatt channel check on optical sector weakness: https://t.co/IhWhCqjZsD
-
POET证实光学巨头遭抛售，预示市场将经历去杠杆回调。
@meikozz_2026 我认为基本面没有错。市场可能会不时出现大幅回调，以清洗掉杠杆和保证金，随后才会继续上涨。 而且这个月似乎就是这样的时间节点？ $POET 证实你们提到的大型光学巨头如 $LITE、$COHR 已被完全抛售。
英文原文
@meikozz_2026 I don't see any fundamentally wrong. There's probably going to be large corrections from time to time flush out margin/leverage before things move higher. And this month seems like that time of year? $POET confirmed your big optical giants like $LITE, $COHR are completely sold