白毛股神SERENITY · 中文档案

顺着供应链向上游走，
找到那个没人盯着的卡点。

Serenity（@aleabitoreddit）是 X 平台 66 万粉丝的美股博主， 从工程与产业链角度寻找 AI 时代的供应链瓶颈与"隐形冠军"， 中文财经社区因其形象与战绩称之为「白毛股神」。 本站将他的全部公开推文翻译成中文，按个股论点 / 供应链分析 / 方法论 / 业绩复盘四类归档， 每 30 分钟自动同步最新推文中文版。

代表案例：一条推文带火机器人谐波减速器龙头绿的谐波；光子学 $SIVE 三个月暴涨 1900%；早期判断 $AXTI InP 衬底产能瓶颈； CPO 共封装光学、InP 衬底、AI 数据中心光互联等核心赛道的全程记录。

已收录 6749 条推文 覆盖 1057 个标的 时间跨度 2025-07-02 → 2026-10-10

🇨🇳 博主提到的中国 A 股

共 43 条 · 含 A 股代码 / 上证创业板科创板 / 绿的谐波等关键词的推文 · 滚到底自动加载更多

  1. 方法论 $AAOI

    博主赞赏粉丝学习其研究框架而非照抄个股

    我觉得这种思路很好：借鉴我对 ESMT DDR2/DDR3 等老一代存储芯片的研究，举一反三。或者把我研究 $AAOI 时关于连续波(CW)激光器供需失衡的思路，应用到 A 股。很开心看到大家学习我的思考方式，而不是照抄具体的股票，并用这些思路去寻找自己看好的做多标的！

    英文原文

    我觉得这种思路很好：借鉴我对 ESMT DDR2/DDR3 等老一代存储芯片的研究, 举一反三. 或者把我研究 $AAOI 时关于 CW 激光器供需失衡的思路, 应用到 A 股. 很开心看到大家学习我的思考方式，而不是照抄具体的股票, 并用这些思路去寻找自己看好的做多标的！

    原推 ↗
  2. 个股论点 $AAOI$AVGO$COHR$LITE$SIVE

    批评 $SIVE 财报沟通保守，建议激进并购与双重上市以加速扩张。

    如果我要批评 $SIVE 的财报： 1. 管理层低估了两个最重要的披露事项。 -> 6 个可插拔模块(Pluggable)的合作项目 -> 晶圆代工产能(Foundry capacity)（正值行业瓶颈期） 这是电话会议最重要的部分，本应重点阐述其经济规模。但我们只听到了2-3句话。 而且，不应该让 X 上的动漫头像来主要谈论这些影响。 2. CFO 需要重新培训或换人。 作为股东，听到律师式的回答令人愤怒。连我都对这句话感到恼火： “我们将评估时机，并决定是否在条件成熟时推进。” 现在他们申请双重上市以逃离充满敌意的瑞典市场，这应该是板上钉钉的事。 股东资助一家未来增长型公司，不是为了听律师式的回答。 再次强调，这可能是 CFO 给出的最糟糕的回答之一，需要坚定的承诺和更快的时间表。 3. 7000万美元应用于并购和双重上市。 -> 坦白说，现阶段专注于混合制造(Hybrid manufacturing)是资本浪费，听到这个我很失望。 虽然最终需要，但已有2家晶圆代工供应商。 -> 你拥有大量新资本和庞大的市值。 利用它进行类似 $AVGO 风格的收购，获取 Cloud Light 类的可插拔模块或光引擎(Optical engines)知识产权。 Lumilens 在2年内从0增长到55亿美元，现在已与超大规模云服务商合作。 Sivers 应尽快摆脱激光瓶颈，不要只做组件供应商。 最重要的是，谁在乎与客户竞争？如果客户说：“如果你做可插拔模块，我们将转向其他供应商购买激光”， 谁会？$LITE / $COHR / $AAOI 将激光转向内部使用。许多亚洲玩家已分配完毕。 尽可能利用当前的瓶颈，因为几乎没有合格的替代选择。 我确信所有合作伙伴都试图向上垂直整合到激光层级并进行竞争。 如果在 Q2 期间尝试了新的光引擎/可插拔模块收购，情况会大不相同。 _ TLDR： $SIVE 应旨在成为下一个 $LITE，像硅谷公司一样闪电扩张。 利用那7000万美元资本在下半年(H2)加速，至少完成准备。并预计纳斯达克上市在 2027 年上半年完成。 而不是那个时间段的“评估”。 并利用资本+股权向下扩展到光引擎/ELS/光收发器，使用你的股权估值，收购 Celestial/Ayar/Cloud Lite 类初创公司。 至于电话会议的措辞，市场关心的是晶圆代工分配+6家可插拔模块玩家的经济价值，而不是其他业务部门。 $SIVE 迄今为止极其保守，但 他们需要加速并向面向未来的美国/国际股东沟通。 而不是面向关心 Q2/滚动十二个月(TTM)收入的当地瑞典受众。 否则他们将被视为亚洲组件供应商，并最终被估值为欧洲公司。

    英文原文

    If I had to be critical of $SIVE earnings: 1. Management underweighted the two disclosures that matter most. -> 6 pluggable engagements -> Foundry capacity (during an industry bottleneck) That's the most important part of the call and should have been the focus to provide economic scale of them. But we got 2-3 sentences about it. And it shouldn't take an Anime avatar on X to talk most about the implications of those. 2. CFO needs retraining or bring on a new one. The lawyer like answers were infuriating to listen to as a shareholder. Even I got pissed off with this statement: "we will evaluate the timing and decide whether the conditions are right to move forward at that particular time." It should be a 100% given by now they file for dual listing to escape hostile Swedish markets. Shareholders didn't fund a future growth type company to hear lawyer-like answers. Again, this was probably one of the worst answers the CFO could have gave and there needs to be firm commitment along with faster timelines. 3. $70M should have gone toward M&A and dual listing. -> Brutally honestly speaking, it's a waste of capital to focus on hybrid manufacturing at this stage and I was disappointed to hear this during this timeframe. It's eventually needed but with 2 foundry suppliers -> You have a ton of new capital and large marketcap. Use it to pull $AVGO style acquisitions of Cloud Light style IP for pluggables or optical engines. Lumilens went from 0 -> $5.5B in 2 years and now with hyperscaler engagements. Sivers should expand out of the laser chokepoint as fast as possible and not stay just a component vendor. And most of all, who cares about competing with customers? If a customer says: "if you do pluggables, we'll go with other players for lasers" who?? $LITE / $COHR / $AAOI reroutes their lasers to internal usage. Lot of your Asian players already allocated. Abuse the current bottleneck as much as possible because there's almost no qualified choices left. And I'm certain all the partners are trying to vertically integrate upward toward the laser level too and compete. If there was a new OE/pluggable accusation attempted during the Q2 time frame, things would have been a lot different. _ TLDR: $SIVE should aim to be the next $LITE and blitzscale like a Silicon Valley company. Use that $70m capital to move faster H2, and at the bare minimum finish readiness then. And expect NASDAQ listing to be finished H1 2027. Not "evaluation" at that timeframe. And use the capital + equity to expand downward into optical engines/ELS/optical transceivers using your equity valuation, and buy a Celestial/Ayar/Cloud Lite type startup. As for the wording of the call, markets care about economic value of the foundry allocation + 6 pluggable players, not other business segments. $SIVE has been extremely conservative to date, but they need to speed up and communicate to forward looking US/Int shareholders. Not geared toward local Swedish audiences who care about Q2/TTM revenue. Otherwise they'll be treated like an Asian component supplier and eventually be valued like an EU one.

    原推 ↗
  3. 供应链分析 $688836$AMZN$CCXI$NVDA$TSLA

    宇树科技上市估值533亿，显示人形机器人纯玩需求超预期。

    宇树科技(688836)现已上市。在上涨+492.18%后，其估值约为533亿美元。我们终于有了一个主要的人形机器人上市公司基准。作为参考，由$NVDA和$AMZN支持的Agility通过$CCXI预计将于第四季度以25亿美元投前估值上市。$TSLA市值超过1万亿美元，但Optimus被包裹在一个更大的公司内。但我认为宇树科技表明，市场对纯人形机器人玩家的需求比公开市场预期的要大得多……

    英文原文

    Unitree (688836) is now public. And is valued at ~$53.3B, after rising +492.18% We finally have a major public company benchmark for humanoids. For reference, Agility (backed by $NVDA, $AMZN) via $CCXI is expected to go public at $2.5B premoney valuation Q4. $TSLA is $1T+, but Optimus is wrapped inside a much larger company. But I think Unitree showed that the demand for pure play humanoid players is much larger… than people expected in public markets.

    原推 ↗
  4. 供应链分析 $VPG

    对比人形机器人零部件供应商的全球巨头与中国厂商的营收节奏。

    @kevs_World02 哈默纳科(Harmonic)/LeaderDrive/舍弗勒(Schaeffler)似乎无处不在。还有一些更小众的零部件供应商，比如 $VPG，可能用于 Optimus/Figure。但我觉得规模差异巨大，因为舍弗勒声称他们正与约45家人形机器人玩家合作。不过，向 Agibot/Unitree 供货的中国供应商可能会率先实现营收，我很快会对该领域做更多研究。

    英文原文

    @kevs_World02 Harmonic/LeaderDrive/Schaeffler seem to be in pretty much everywhere. There's some more niche component suppliers like $VPG for maybe Optimus/Figure. But I think the scale is vastly different since Schaeffler claimed they were wokring with ~45 humanoid players. Chinese suppliers to Agibot/Unitree probably hit revenue first though, I can do more research into that area soon.

    原推 ↗
  5. 供应链分析 $005930$6976

    MLCC交货期延长且扩产推迟，AI服务器瓶颈加剧。

    所以只是在追踪 MLCC（多层陶瓷电容器）周期： ComponentNews 将服务器 MLCC 归类为“严重”短缺阶段，ETNews 报道： - 根据 DigiKey 的出货数据，三星（$005930）部分高容量 MLCC 的交货期已达约 40 周。 今年早些时候，更广泛的报道约为 20 周，因此 AI 服务器 MLCC 瓶颈仍在扩大。 - 村田（$6976）6 月约为 24 周。 7 月约为 30 周。现在有些已达约 36 周。 这很有趣： “新产能扩张计划从 2026 年第四季度推迟至 2027 年” 未说明是哪项扩张……也许是村田？但如果产能扩张据报道受阻，短期瓶颈应该会收紧。 交货期是追踪供需失衡的好方法。

    英文原文

    So just tracking the MLCC cycle: ComponentNews classified server MLCCs as “severe” shortage stage, with ETNews reporting: - Samsung has reached ~40 week lead times for some high capacitance MLCCs per DigiKey’s shipment data. Earlier this year, broader reports were ~20 weeks, so the AI server MLCC bottleneck keeps growing. - Murata was ~24 weeks in June. July was ~30 weeks. And now some at ~36 weeks. This was interesting: “The expansion of new production capacity is being postponed from Q4 2026 to 2027” Doesn’t say which expansion… maybe Murata? But if capacity expansion reportedly gets stalled, the bottleneck should tighten short term. Lead times are a good way to track demand imbalances.

    原推 ↗
  6. 个股论点 $AMZN$CCXI$NVDA

    博主因无法买A股，通过CCXI布局人形机器人并看好Unitree。

    @tRbW6qAUT717891 我无法购买A股，所以我坚持投资美股市场。 通过 $CCXI（由 $NVDA、$AMZN、软银支持）的敏捷性是我个人对机器人(人形机器人)领域的敞口。 但我正在为所有中了 Unitree 股票彩票的人欢呼。

    英文原文

    @tRbW6qAUT717891 I can't buy A-Shares, so I'm sticking with US markets. Agility via $CCXI( $NVDA, $AMZN, Softbank backed) is my personal exposure to humanoids. But I'm cheering on everyone who won the lottery for Unitree shares.

    原推 ↗
  7. 供应链分析 $AAOI$AMD$AVGO$COHR$LITE$MTSI$NVDA$SIVE

    AAOI财报揭示CPO激光器产能瓶颈，利好少数西方厂商，中国技术落后数年。

    哇，$AAOI 的财报中对于 $SIVE 及其他激光器玩家来说，利好一个接一个。 1. $AAOI 并未实质性参与第一代共封装光学(CPO)部署。 “我们根本无法生产足够的[CPO激光器]来参与他们当前的一代[CPO]部署，因为产能根本不够。我们必须优先保障自有光模块的激光器供应。” 因此，第一代CPO激光器的部署范围可能会进一步缩小，仅限于$SIVE、$LITE、$AVGO和$COHR等西方厂商。 如果$AAOI不得不拒绝更多客户，独立的CPO连续波(CW)激光器产能将变得更有价值。 还要记得Trendforce曾提到$AMD签署了CW长期协议(LTA)？$COHR/$LITE已与$NVDA签署了产能协议…… 我原以为是$AAOI，但他们可能出局了。$MTSI在早期CPO参与中也不显眼（除了NPO外财报未提及，且从Ayar网站移除）。 所以我在想$AMD在Helios项目中会与谁合作（例如Sivers+Ayar现在更可能是候选者）？ 顺便说一句，这对$AAOI并非看空，因为他们光模块业务需求旺盛。只是对少数有产能的合格CPO激光器厂商更加看多。 2. 磷化铟(InP)激光器/光模块的需求失衡与瓶颈。 AOI CEO的话某种程度上证实了这一点：“客户需求比扩建后的产能高出20%-40%。” “我们几乎每周都从几家大客户那里收到这种需求。激光器目前是光模块业务最大的瓶颈。” 3. 中国在CPO波分复用(DWDM)规格激光器方面落后数年。 我之前在渠道调研CPO竞争时曾覆盖过这一点。 但$AAOI确认中国“至少落后两三年甚至更久”才能拥有CPO激光器，这极大地印证了西方激光器在CPO激光器卡脖子环节上的防御性地位。 总结： - CW激光器和光模块需求严重失衡。 - $AAOI因产能限制未进入第一代CPO（对$AAOI不算看空，因其光模块需求旺盛，但对$SIVE等少数有产能的独立厂商更是利好）。 - 中国在CPO激光器方面落后数年。

    英文原文

    Wow, there's gem after gem in $AAOI earnings for $SIVE + other laser player readthrough. 1. AAOI not meaningfully participating in CPO first-gen deployments. "We just can’t make enough of them [CPO lasers] to be involved in their current first-generation [CPO] deployments because there’s just not enough capacity. We have to prioritize our ability to make lasers for our own transceivers first" So first-gen CPO laser deployments, might even be narrowed down further for Western players like $SIVE, $LITE, $AVGO, and $COHR. And independent CPO CW laser capacity became more valuable if $AAOI had to turn away more customers... Also remember Trendforce was talking about $AMD singing CW LTAs? $COHR / $LITE have capacity signed with $NVDA ... I thought it would be $AAOI, but they might be out of the equation. $MTSI also doesn't look meaningful with early CPO participation (eg. no mention in ER aside from NPO, and removal from Ayar website). So I wonder who players like $AMD is going to go with for Helios (eg. Sivers + Ayar more likely candidate now)? Btw, this is not bearish AAOI because they have too much demand for optical transceiver business. Just more bullish on the existing few qualified CPO laser names that have capacity. 2. Demand imbalance and bottleneck for InP lasers / optical transceivers. AOI's CEO stated kinda supported that when they said: "The customer demand is 20%-40% higher" than expanded built out capacity. "We are getting this kind of demand from several big customers almost every week. Lasers are the biggest bottleneck right now for the transceiver business" 3. China being years away from having CPO DWDM specification lasers. I covered this earlier when looking at CPO competition from channel checks. But AAOI confirming that China is "easily at least two, three years or even longer from having CPO lasers is incredible tread through on defensibility Western laser positioning in the CPO laser chokepoint. TLDR: - High demand imbalance for CW lasers and optical transceivers. - $AAOI not in first-gen CPO due to capacity constraints (not exactly bearish AAOI because they have too much demand for their optical transciver business, but even better news for the few independent players with capacity coming online like $SIVE) - China years behind in CPO lasers.

    原推 ↗
  8. 方法论 $AAPL$PYPL

    主张优先长期增长而非短期现金流，以PayPal为例。

    @highonlifedeal2 确实，目前市场似乎只想要自由现金流(FCF) + 巨额现金储备或股息/回购，就像 $AAPL 那样。 我同意扎克伯格的观点，虽然这会压缩短期自由现金流，但他们将在长期增长中得到回报。 作为股东，我认为优先考虑长期增长优于低增长的自由现金流，然后再由公司进行回购，正如 $PYPL 的回报所显示的那样。

    英文原文

    @highonlifedeal2 True, right now markets just want FCF + large warchests or dividends/buybacks I guess, like $AAPL. I'd agree with Zuckerberg that although it compresses near term FCF, they'll be rewarded over time with long term growth. As a shareholder, probably better to prioritize long term growth over a low-growth FCF then buybacks company as seen with $PYPL's returns.

    原推 ↗
  9. 个股论点 $SKHY

    SKHY美股因ADR转换机制启动，套利将抹平20-50%溢价。

    @chengchushow - SK海力士主要在韩国交易 - $SKHY 在美国上市，流通盘有限，约占流通股的2.5%（这被称为美国存托凭证(ADR)） - 尽管SK海力士是同一家公司，但两地股票独立交易。 - 由于供应有限但美国需求旺盛，SK海力士美股较韩国上市价格存在20-50%的溢价。 -> ADR允许在韩国股票和美国股票之间进行转换，转换将于29日开始 - 如果将22.5%的韩国供应转换为美国供应，那20-50%的溢价很可能会下降 例如：如果芒果供应有限，有人出价3美元买芒果。 你以1美元买入同样的芒果。你不断买入1美元的芒果并以3美元卖出，直到芒果价格趋同。这被称为套利(arbitrage)，也是交易员可能会做的。

    英文原文

    @chengchushow - Sk Hynix mainly traded in Korea - $SKHY lists in the US with limited shares, ~2.5% of the float (this is called ADR) - Even though SK Hynix are the same company, the shares trade independently. - Sk Hynix US traded at a 20-50% premium to SK Hynix Korean listing due to limited supply, but lot of US demand. -> ADRs allow for conversion between Korea Shares to US Shares, and conversion will start on the 29th - If you convert 22.5% of the Korean supply to the US, that 20-50% premium is likely to go down eg. If there's limited mangos, and someone pays $3 for mangos. You buy the same mango for $1. You keep buying those $1 mangos and selling for $3 until the mangos pricing converge. That's called arbitrage and what likely traders would do.

    原推 ↗
  10. 供应链分析 $AAOI$LITE$SIVE$SOI$TSM

    高盛上调中际旭创目标价及盈利预测，看好硅光子及光模块产业链前景。

    谢谢，喜欢读评论！ 高盛将中际旭创(Innolight)的目标价上调至2581元人民币。较当前估值约有163.6%的上涨空间。 但最大亮点是其2026-2028年的盈利预测大幅上调，分别增长65%/108%/119%，基于： - 硅光子模块出货量大幅增加 - 扩展、扩容、跨领域出货量增长 - 1.6T/3.2T提升混合平均售价(ASP)和利润率 - AI资本支出增加 这通常对光通信板块有重大传导效应，因为： 我倾向于将中际旭创视为类似台积电($TSM)的半导体资本支出风向标，用以观察光子学领域的状况。 例如，硅光子渗透率提高意味着连续波激光器(如$SIVE)和SOI晶圆($SOI)的总可寻址市场(TAM)扩大。未来代际产品的ASP上涨对其他光模块厂商也是利好。 我认为报告之外的另一个要点是，中际旭创在12日的电话会议中表示，800G需求的增长比预期更显著。 这反过来预示着$AAOI和$LITE等公司在下一次财报季将面临更多需求。 简而言之：高盛在大幅回调期间给出了高盈利预测。 从根本上说，当财报季(ER)到来时，更广泛的光子学生态系统应该会感到高兴。

    英文原文

    Thanks, love reading the comments! Goldman Sachs raised Innolight PT to 2581 RMB. Roughly 163.6% upside from current valuations. But the largest thing is its 2026–2028 earnings est revision raised by a whopping 65%/108%/119%, based on: - Much higher silicon photonics module volumes - scale out, scale up, scale across volumes - 1.6T/3.2T lifting blended ASP + margins - increase in AI capex This is typically very material read through on the optical sector since: I tend to think of Innolight as a $TSM (semi capex) type read on how the photonics landscape is doing. Eg. Higher silicon photonics penetration means more TAM for cw lasers like $SIVE (cw) / SOI wafer demand for $SOI. ASP hikes for future gen is positive for the other optical markers too. Think my other takeaway outside the report was Innolight stating 800g demand was growing more significantly than expected from their transcript on the 12th. Which in turn signals more demand for names like $AAOI to $LITE next earnings. TLDR: GS gives high earnings projections during a time of massive corrections. Fundamentally, broader photonics ecosystem should be happy when it’s ER time.

    原推 ↗
个股论点2504 供应链分析1440 方法论668 业绩复盘488 杂谈1649

最新推文

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  1. 个股论点 $AXTI$COHR$IQE$LITE$SNDK

    AXTI InP衬底瓶颈论点获验证，估值重估取决于其提价能力。

    @StanleyShih8 我认为我2025年关于$AXTI的论点几乎都得到了验证？ 从AXT在磷化铟(InP)衬底瓶颈中的地位……有能力威胁超大规模建设（据路透社报道）…… $IQE一直将此标记为主要风险，VPEC和台湾外延晶圆代工厂一直在抱怨InP衬底瓶颈。 甚至AXT直接确认与$LITE和$COHR的合作伙伴关系，作为InP衬底供应商。AXT还表示2027年底InP季度收入产能达1.3亿美元（年化约5.2亿美元），这与之前相比是巨大的收入拐点。 现在……最大的问题是：AXT能提价多少？ 他们制造的衬底只是物料清单(BOM)中极小的一部分……但能以光学器件威胁超大规模建设。 所以如果他们能像$SNDK NAND那样提价（他们能做到），我认为AXT的估值可能会大幅重估。但如果他们最终像日本ABF供应商那样，不太愿意滥用其地位，那就是另一回事了。 需要做更多的渠道检查来了解进展。 但至少，我认为由于他们的重要性（例如上游精炼厂所有权、坩埚加工等）+ 无需提价即可实现的现有产能收入，应该有一个估值底线。 TLDR： - 瓶颈论点在市值约5亿美元时成立 - 上行空间现在来自双寡头地位+拥有InP衬底制造过程中上游瓶颈带来的提价。（由于InP衬底在总成本中占比低，他们可以做到） - 未知领域，我们拭目以待（也是地缘政治紧张局势的核心部分，因此始终存在风险）。

    英文原文

    @StanleyShih8 I think almost everything about my $AXTI thesis from 2025 was validated? From AXT's position in the InP substrate bottleneck... Being able to threaten the hyperscaler buildout (per Reuters)... $IQE has been flagging this as a major risk, VPEC and Taiwan epiwafer foundries have been crying over InP substrate bottlenecks. And there's even AXT direct confirmation of partnerships with $LITE and $COHR as the InP substrate supplier. AXT also stated $130m/quarter InP revenue capacity exiting 2027 (~$520m annualized) so that's a massive revenue inflection compared to previously. Now... the biggest question is: How much can AXT price hike? The substrates they make are just such a tiny part of the BOM... but can threaten hyperscaler buildouts with optics. So if they manage to price hike to $SNDK NAND degrees (which they can), then I think AXT could get re-rated a ton from here. But if they end up like Japanese ABF suppliers that are less willing to abuse their position, that's a different story. Will need to do more channel checks to see how that's coming along. But at the very least, I would argue there should be some valuation baseline just due to their critical importance (eg. upstream refinery ownerships, crucible processing, etc) + existing capacity revenue without hikes. TLDR: - Bottleneck thesis was at like ~$500m MC - Upside now comes from price hikes due to duopoly position + ownership of upstream bottlenecks in the InP substrate manufacturing process. (which they can due to low cost of InP substrates in overall costs) - Uncharted territory, we'll see (also a central part of geopolitical tensions so there's always risk there).

    原推 ↗
  2. 个股论点 $AAOI$AVGO$JBL$LITE$MTSI$SIVE

    分析SIVE在产能、资质及技术上的三大护城河，看好其长期竞争力。

    @Rian_2026 好问题！只是些非正式想法……看 $SIVE 有三个“护城河”： - 产能 - 资质认证（尤其是定制型分布反馈激光器(Custom DFB lasers)） - 技术 1. 产能方面，他们将于 2027 年 Q4 投产 1 亿+ 连续波(Continuous Wave) DFB 激光器（Trendforce 数据显示目前全球 EML/CW 激光器供应约 6.08 亿）。 显然到 2027 年全球产能将大幅增长，$AAOI、$AVGO（3 倍扩张）等将投产。 但如果按他们 2:1 的说法推算，意味着长期来自自有供应+外部代工厂的激光器达 3 亿/年。 这在被引述为 3-5 年的短缺期间极具价值，且 $LITE 称其需求可见度已至 2031 年…… 且当供应商因瓶颈开始认证更多厂商（如从早期的 2-3 家增至 5-7 家）时。 我确信他们实现这一惊人产量的关键在于制造工艺/良率（这是护城河）。 2. 资质方面，若看与中国厂商合作的 70mW/100mW 可插拔产品线，我认为这更通用，更多回归到产能和制造工艺以实现这些数字。 他们与 Ayar 合作的定制 DFB 阵列（2023 年曾暗示还有 Celestial 等 2-3 家）在光 I/O 相关领域需数年认证，若完成将是护城河。 所以 $MTSI 或其他公司很难轻易替换或设计绕过。当然共封装光学(CPO) 大规模量产在 2028 年，而我们还在 2026 年下半年。 3. 人们总可比较功率输出等原始规格，但这可能更微妙，所以最好指向客户声明。 关于 $JBL 1.6T 长距可插拔(LRO)：Jabil 执行副总裁称“我认为我们的 LRO 部件有形成相对显著护城河的潜力……”尤其涉及功耗。我猜 $SIVE 是该线唯一来源。 Jabil 可能是其激光器在明年 Q2 左右大规模生产场景中表现的最重要证明。 Ayar 也类似表示“没有 Sivers 我们做不到”针对定制方案。

    英文原文

    @Rian_2026 Good question! Just some informal thoughts... there's three "moats" to look at for $SIVE: - Capacity - Qualifications (especially for custom DFB lasers) - Technological 1. For capacity, they're coming online with 100M+ CW DFB lasers Q4 2027 (global supply is roughly ~608M EML/CW lasers currently per Trendforce). Obviously by 2027 global capacity is going to grow a lot, with $AAOI, $AVGO (3x expansion), and others coming online. But if you extrapolate their 2:1 statement, that implies 300m lasers/year long term coming from their own supply + external foundries. This is incredibly valuable during a shortage that was quoted to be 3-5 years, and $LITE stating they already have demand visibility into 2031... And when suppliers have started to qualify many more (eg. 5-7 vendors vs. 2-3 earlier) due to bottlenecks. I'm sure a lot of how they achieve that staggering amount is due to their manufacturing process/yields (which is a moat). 2. For qualifications, if you look at 70mW/100mW pluggable lines with Chinese players, I'd argue this is more generic and moreso reverting back to a capacity argument and manufacturing process to achieve those numbers. Custom DFB arrays that they've been working on with Ayar (they hinted at 2-3 others back in 2023 like Celestial) take years for optical i/o related things and would be a moat if they finish quals. So it's not quite something you can hot swap or design out really easily for $MTSI or another company. But of course cpo scale up and such is mass volume in 2028, and we're still H2 2026. 3. People can always compare raw specs like power output, but it's probably way way more nuanced so easier to just point toward customer statements. With $JBL 1.6T LRO: "I think that there's the potential for a relatively dramatic moat with our LRO part…" from Jabil's EVP, especially related to power consumption. And $SIVE is my guess sole source in this line. Jabil is probably the most important testament to how their lasers perform in mass production scenarios maybe around Q2 next year. Ayar said something similar along the lines of "we couldn't do it without Sivers" for custom implementations.

    原推 ↗
  3. 个股论点 $AAOI$LITE

    看好LITE订单及AAOI产能爬坡，称其为最大仓位之一。

    @HimarsoClock 有人问“Serenity 这次怎么样！”所以我挺开心的。 我个人对 $LITE 售罄至 2029 年及其对 $AAOI 等光学同行（Optical Peers）的影响感到兴奋。 非投资建议，但我个人认为市场尚未完全意识到 AOI 在 2027 年的产能爬坡（Ramp）规模以及当前瓶颈（Bottleneck）的严重性。这也是我目前最大仓位之一的原因！ 另外，我期待周末去户外走走（Touch Grass）。听说有个 OCP 圣何塞活动…… 如果有像 ICML 那样的 Kiss of Life 团体，我可能会去逛逛。

    英文原文

    @HimarsoClock Someone did ask “How is Serenity” this time around! So I’m happy. I’m just personally excited about $LITE selling out into 2029 and implications for optical peers like $AAOI. Not advice, but I personally think markets haven’t fully caught onto the scale of AOI’s ramp in 2027 + current bottleneck severity. It’s one of my largest positions right now for a reason! Also I’m looking forward to touching grass over the weekend. Apparently there was an OCP San Jose event… Maybe I’ll drop by if there’s a Kiss of Life group like at ICML.

    原推 ↗
  4. 个股论点 $AAOI$RDDT

    博主嘲笑看空AOI的观点，认为其激光业务有护城河且未来盈利可期。

    看起来你们中有人在 $RDDT WSB 上发帖……持有一百万美元的 $AAOI 仓位。 我在嘲笑那些评论，当我的名字出现时更是觉得好笑。 如果人们认为激光领域“没有护城河”且 AOI 不赚钱，那可能还为时过早。（等着看 2027 年 Q2 吧） https://t.co/vG6Zl4LZHf

    英文原文

    Looks like one of you posted on $RDDT WSB… with a $1M $AAOI position. I’m laughing at the comments, even more amusing when my name pops up Might still be early if people think there’s “no moat” in lasers and that AOI makes no money. (wait and see Q2 2027) https://t.co/vG6Zl4LZHf

    原推 ↗
  5. 供应链分析 $AAOI$AMD$LITE$NVDA$SIVE

    光组件短缺致供应链多元化，新产能厂商有望获资格。

    @wosa42 市场往往直到直接声明出现时，才会注意到二阶影响。 - 如果 $LITE 完全售罄……（很大程度上是因为 $NVDA 限制了其他所有人，例如锁定格林斯伯勒产能），那么像 $AMD / 超大规模云服务商 / 等其他公司从哪里获取供应采购？ - $SIVE 即将投产，其自身就拥有全球当前约 1/6 的激光器产能。（1 亿+ cw dfb 激光器 vs. 全球 6.08 亿 EML/CW，据 Trendforce 数据）。 这还不包括他们目标为 2:1 的合作伙伴晶圆厂。 - $AAOI 明年也将投产大量产能，足以生产 40 万 ELSFP + 每月 4.71 亿美元的收发器。 再结合 Lightcounting 等其他供应链声明，如“过去 2-3 家供应商是常态，现在则是 5-7 家”。 因此，只要你的产品实际上有效 + 可扩展，很难想象拥有产能的其他人不会进入你的供应链。 因为光组件短缺现在是一个巨大的瓶颈。

    英文原文

    @wosa42 Markets often miss second order implications until it shows up in direct statements. - If $LITE is completely sold out... (largely due to $NVDA bottlenecking everyone else, eg. securing Greensboro capacity), where else do your other companies like $AMD / hyperscalers / etc. get their supply procurement? - $SIVE is coming online with like 1/6th of the world's current laser capacity by themselves. (100M+ cw dfb lasers vs. 608M EML/CW globally per Trendforce). Not even including their partner foundries that they're targeting 2:1 for. - $AAOI is coming online with a ton of capacity too next year enough to produce 400k ELSFP + $471m/month of transceivers. Then combine that with other supply chain statements like "Having 2-3 suppliers used to be the norm, now it is 5-7" from Lightcounting. So as long as your products actually work + can scale, it's hard to see anyone else with capacity not get qualified into your supply chains. Since optical component shortages are a massive bottleneck now.

    原推 ↗
  6. 供应链分析 $AAOI$LITE$SIVE

    LITE产能售罄至2029年，光子学供应链瓶颈加剧。

    哇哦……$LITE 首席执行官今天在接受彭博社(Bloomberg)采访时称： Lumentum 的产能“实际上已销售至 2029 年”。 从我们的角度来看，“完全售罄，且看不到尽头”。超大规模云服务商(Hyperscalers)的需求可见度已延伸至 2030 年、2031 年。 这些声明对光子学(Photonics)行业以及其余正在释放产能的激光供应商（如 $SIVE、住友电气(Sumitomo Electric)到 $AAOI）的影响是巨大的。 正在展开的瓶颈真是疯狂。

    英文原文

    Woooow... $LITE CEO went out on Bloomberg today and stated: Lumentum is "effectively sold out through nearly 2029". From our perspective, "Completely Sold Out, there's no end in sight". With demand visibility from hyperscalers that carries them out into 2030, 2031. The implications of these statements are enormous for photonics and remaining laser suppliers with capacity coming online like $SIVE, Sumitomo Electric, to $AAOI. What a crazy bottleneck that's unfolding.

    原推 ↗
  7. 供应链分析 $AMZN$GOOGL$MSFT

    超大规模云商资金充裕且回报诱人，OpenAI巨额融资缓解了对交易对手风险的担忧。

    @ps_georg 超大规模云服务商(Hyperscalers)是最终为AI基础设施建设提供资金的一方。正如从$AMZN到$GOOGL的财报评论所见，投资回报率(ROI)被认为极具吸引力。甚至$MSFT也表示他们在建设期间将实现自由现金流(FCF)为正。在OpenAI最近筹集了约1680亿美元之前，我更担心交易对手风险。

    英文原文

    @ps_georg Hyperscalers are the ones ultimately funding the AI buildout. As seen with $AMZN to $GOOGL earnings commentary, the ROI is seen as wildly attractive. Even $MSFT said they’d be FCF positive during the buildout period. I was more worried about counterparty risk until OpenAI went out and raised like $168B recently.

    原推 ↗
  8. 供应链分析 $AAOI$SNAP

    VC私有公司估值泡沫化，AI供应链股因需求可见度高而被低估。

    @matttfoster 真正的泡沫在风险投资(VC)领域，像Instinct这样的私有公司……10万用户就估值100亿美元，而$SNAP拥有近10亿月活跃用户(MAU)却估值更低。 供应链股票并非泡沫，相反，像$AAOI等标的相对于未来增长而言被严重低估。 而且超大规模云服务商(Hyperscalers)的需求可见度已延伸至多年……

    英文原文

    @matttfoster Real bubble is in VC land with private companies like Instinct… $10B valuations off 100k users while $SNAP is worth less with close to 1 Billion MAU. Supply chain stocks aren’t a bubble though, if anything names like $AAOI and others are very undervalued relative to forward growth. And you have demand visibility from hyperscalers extending multiple years…

    原推 ↗
  9. 供应链分析 $AAOI$MU

    博主质疑媒体将 OpenAI 收入夸大解读为导致激光和内存长期短缺的逻辑。

    谁能解释一下，关于 OpenAI 约 500 亿美元年化经常性收入（ARR）（相较于与 Anthropic 错误会计对比得出的约 700 亿美元）的媒体头条， 是如何导致 $AAOI 出现 3-5 年的激光二极管短缺，或 $MU 出现内存短缺的？ 提示：事实并非如此。

    英文原文

    Can someone explain how media headlines about OpenAI’s ~$50B ARR… (vs. ~$70B from incorrect accounting comparisons with Anthropic) Somehow ends a 3-5 year laser shortage with $AAOI or memory shortage with $MU? Hint: it doesn’t. https://t.co/FiVsvg8I0G

    原推 ↗
  10. 个股论点 $CCXI$OKLO

    看好CCXI拟IPO及人形机器人前景，已建仓并期待上市。

    @UjenA93UTP63896 $CCXI 看起来将在 2026 年第四季度(Q4) 上市。我希望如果它能引发足够多的兴奋感，其走势能像 $OKLO 那样。前几天看了投资者演示文稿，正等待其尽快公开上市（我个人前几天已经买入了一些）。我是人形机器人(Humanoids) 的忠实粉丝，非常有信心物理 AI(Physical AI) 的转变即将到来。在它处于申报阶段时，我个人不太关注价格波动，通常在股票代码变更后的交易开始才更有趣。让我们看看会发生什么。

    英文原文

    @UjenA93UTP63896 $CCXI looks like it's going public Q4 2026. And my hope is that it sort of looks like $OKLO if they generate enough excitement. Watched the investor presentation the other day, just waiting for the public listing anytime soon (I personally added some the other day). Big fan of humanoids, pretty confident physical AI shift is coming next. I'm personally not looking too much about the price action while it's in its filing phase, fun usually begins after ticker change. We'll see what happens

    原推 ↗

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关于「白毛股神」Serenity

白毛股神（英文 White Hair Stock God）是中文财经社区给美股 X 博主 Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) 的称呼，源于他独特的银白发型与一系列在 AI 与半导体供应链上"提前看见瓶颈"的精准判断。

他的研究方法核心是从工程与产业链角度倒推：每一波 AI 算力扩张背后 必然有一个环节产能跟不上，谁卡在那里、谁就握有定价权——他称这些公司为"隐形冠军"。 代表作之一是 2026 年 6 月点名机器人谐波减速器龙头"绿的谐波"后该股迅速成为市场焦点； 光子学 $SIVE（Sivers Semiconductors）在他喊出后三个月内涨幅约 1900%； $AXTI 的 InP（磷化铟）衬底瓶颈、Coherent $COHR 的 CPO 共封装光学路径， 也是被他早期持续覆盖的代表案例。

本站收录他的全部公开英文推文并自动翻译为中文，按 个股论点、 供应链分析、 方法论、 业绩复盘 四类整理，方便中文读者学习其研究框架。 详细说明 →