全部推文
共 6386 条 · 第 17 / 213 页 · 滚到底自动加载更多
-
LPK会议纪要显示其计划纳斯达克上市且目标激进，博主认为其被严重低估。
哇，我完全错过了 $LPK 会议纪要中的这一点。我认为市场也错过了。我最大的收获： - 纳斯达克上市已在其积极考虑范围内，且正在讨论中。 - 目标市场份额为 70%，这是一个极其激进的目标。 - 总可寻址市场(TAM)远超此前预测。 - 预计今年将有 4-5 家基准玩家获得订单。 - 行业已准备好进行大规模量产爬坡。 基于这些讨论，我认为 $LPK 被严重低估（披露：持有仓位）。
英文原文
Wow, I completely missed this with $LPK meeting notes. And I think markets did too. My biggest takeaway: - NASDAQ listing is actively on their radar and are in discussions. - 70% market share targeted, unholy target. - TAM greatly exceeds former projections. - See a 4-5 base case of players this year with orders. - Industry is ready for high volume ramps. I do think LPK is very undervalued based on these discussions (disclosure: own positions).
-
博主反思未买入MLCC瓶颈受益股，错失大幅涨幅。
提醒我，每当我指出一个瓶颈时，我自己都应该做多。我之前刚提出过关于 MLCC（多层陶瓷电容器）瓶颈的想法。太诱电（Taiyo Yuden）上涨 211.38%，$VSH 上涨 146.15%，村田（Murata）上涨 155.43%。就在过去两个月内……感觉真糟。
英文原文
Remind me whenever I call out a bottleneck, I should go long myself. Just floated this idea out around MLCC bottlenecks awhile back. Taiyo Yuden up 211.38% $VSH up 146.15% Murata up 155.43% Within the last 2 months... Feels bad.
-
博主复盘持仓：核心主题盈利丰厚，但CPO及韩国股短期亏损，强调中期视角。
我想强调的一点是，并非我所有的观点都是盈利的，尤其是在短期时间框架内！ 我的核心三大主题是：新云（能源）、存储和光子学。 我很高兴我从每个细分领域选择了字面意义上的顶级表现者，从 $NBIS 到 $EWY，再到 $SIVE。 然而，由于一份关于共封装光学(CPO)延迟的虚假分析师报告（$NVDA 已驳斥），我仍然承受着相当大的亏损： 这摧毁了我3个台湾CPO多头头寸，包括 Foci、Msscorp、Xintec 等（目前大幅亏损）。不过，Shunsin 和 Win Semi 的表现要好得多。 我之前提到的一些日本公司，如 Towa、Harmonic Drive、NCI 等，在短期波动后表现要好得多。 至于韩国，是的，我对 Auros 和现在的 Foosung 都有创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)，两者都亏损（我并没有持有 093370，只是看着价格走势感到 PTSD）。 我不知道是否还会再碰韩国，波动性太大了。但我仍然认为，随着 SK 海力士/三星的资格认证 + 大规模量产(HVM) 以及未来日本供应链的关闭，这些最终会转为盈利。 我也改变了一些之前的多头观点，比如 $XLU，因为伊朗战争将降息预期从3-4次降至0次，这并没有很好地兑现。我之前提到的三家软件公司 $TTD、$META 最终都亏损了。对于 $SNAP，我在注意到其无尽的基于股票的薪酬(SBC)会计方法后也改变了论点。$RDDT 的观点在很长一段时间内终于从 $130 涨到 $170 转为盈利。 但我想，我绝大多数的观点，如 $MRVL、$NBIS、$ARM、$INTC、$MU、$LITE、SK 海力士、三星（针对大盘股）。 一直到 $AXTI、$LITE、$AAOI、$RPI、$IQE 等（针对小盘股）的方向性表现都相当不错。 像 $SIMO、$HPS.A、$TSEM、$AEHR、$LPK、$SOI、$ALRIB 等随机标的也都表现尚可。 由于我大多数的多头观点今年至今(YTD)都是三位数的收益，混合平均收益可以说是压倒性的绿色（盈利）。 但我确实错过了一些。 入场点也很重要……我提到 $AAOI 在 $30 或 $AXTI 在 ~$13 时，但并非每个人都有相同的入场点。所以如果有人在 $220 买入 AOI 然后跌到 $160，我会感到抱歉。 但无论如何，我更倾向于在几个月的中期时间框架内，而不是几周的时间框架内，来评判观点的兑现情况。
英文原文
I think something to highlight also is not all my ideas are green, especially on short term timeframes! My core three themes are Neoclouds (Energy), Memory, and Photonics. And I'm glad I chose the literal top performers for each segment from $NBIS to $EWY leaps to $SIVE. However, I still have pretty large losses following the false analyst report on CPO delays that $NVDA refuted: That nuked 3 of my TW CPO longs from Foci, Msscorp, Xintec and others. (which are heavily red). Shunsin / Win Semi are holding up much better though. Some of the other ones in Japan that I've mentioned like Towa, Harmonic Drive, NCI, etc. are performing much better following short-term volatility. As for Korea yes I have PTSD for from Auros and now Foosung that are both both red (I didn't own 093370 though, just got PTSD watching price action). Idk if I'll touch Korea again, just way too volatile. But I still think those will end up green eventually following Sk hynix/samsung qualifications + HVM, and the future japanese supply chain shutdown. I also did change some of my previous long ideas like $XLU following the Iran War nuking all chances of rate cuts from 3-4 down to 0, and that didn't play out too well. Three software names I mentioned previously like $TTD , $META ended up red. $SNAP , I also changed my thesis after noticing the endless SBC accounting methods. $RDDT idea was finally in the green from $130 -> $170 after a long time. But I think the vast majority of my ideas like $MRVL , $NBIS , $ARM , $INTC , $MU , $LITE , SK Hynix, Samsung, for larger cap. Down to $AXTI , $LITE , $AAOI , $RPI, $IQE, and others for smaller cap positions directionally play out pretty well. With random stuff like $SIMO , $HPS.A, $TSEM , $AEHR , $LPK, $SOI, $ALRIB, and so on all ended up turning out aight too. The blended average is kinda overwhelmingly green since majority of my long ideas are triple digit YTD. But I've definitely missed a few. Also entry point is really important too... I mentioned $AAOI at $30 or $AXTI at ~$13, but not everyone has the same entry point. So if someone bought AOI at $220 and it dropped to $160, I'd feel bad. But regardless, I'd prefer to judge how ideas play out on medium term timeframes over a few months rather than a few weeks.
-
警示散户勿盲从机构研报，以Kioxia暴涨为例证伪Bernstein看空。
Bernstein 基本上就是机构版的 Jim Cramer：告诉散户 Kioxia 看起来要崩盘，给出 -50% 的目标价。一堆散户卖出。股价随后直接飙升，今天又涨了 +12%。
英文原文
Bernstein is basically the institutional version of Jim Cramer: Tells retail Kioxia looks like it’s going to crash, gives a -50% PT. Bunch of retail sells. Stock proceeds to skyrocket right after, with another +12% today.
-
AI垃圾内容污染大模型检索，形成低质信息反馈循环。
只是一个随机想法，也许有人能创办一家初创公司来解决这个问题： 我观察到一个有趣的趋势，即人类可识别的内容农场垃圾网站，如“Ad Hoc News”。 它们每天针对特定公司发布大量旧的/重复的误导性AI新闻以获取流量。 但这些内容被AI检索视为高权重且新鲜。因此，Gemini等大语言模型(LLM)在引用这些数据时受到污染。 接着，像大学生这样没有技术背景的人使用AI撰写他们并不理解的报告。 然后LLM在训练/检索中也被这些内容污染，导致人们混淆错误的技术细节，例如将连续波分布反馈激光器(cw dfb laser)阵列的单通道与单高功率激光器的输出进行比较。 因此，低阶AI反馈进入前沿AI，形成循环。模型检索受到污染。
英文原文
Just a random thought, maybe someone can do a startup to solve this: Interesting trend I’m seeing is human-recognized content farm spam sites like “Ad Hoc News”. Flooding tens of old/repeated misleading AI news every day on specific companies for views. But it’s treated highly + fresh to AI retrieval. So LLMs like Gemini get polluted citing that data. Then you have people without technical backgrounds like college students making writeups on things they don’t understand, using AI. Then LLMs get polluted in training/retrieval with that too, so you see people conflating the wrong technical nuance like comparing single channels of a cw dfb laser array vs. single high power lasers outputs. So you have a feedback loop of low tier AI feeding into frontier AI. With model retrieval getting contaminated.
-
质疑中国如何从ASML走私大型设备。
中国究竟是如何从 $ASML 走私进一辆校车大小的东西的？这才是真正的问题。
英文原文
How does China manage to smuggle in something the size of a school bus from $ASML ? Is the real question.
-
博主寻求具备AI增长潜力的最大NAV折价标的以拓展研究
有人有最大净资产价值(NAV)折价清单或想法吗？但独立具备人工智能(AI)增长潜力？ 像 $ACMR 和 WUS (2316) 相比 SK Square 这样更极端的标的。 我持有上述标的，只是想研究更多机会。 最近似乎开始受到关注
英文原文
Anyone got a list or ideas of the biggest NAV discounts. But independently has AI growth? Stuff more extreme end like $ACMR and WUS (2316) compared to SK Square. Have exposure to the ones above, just wanted to research more opportunities. Seems to be getting noticed recently
-
特朗普宣布苹果英特尔合作，博主调侃其硬扛英特尔股价。
特朗普宣布英特尔(Intel)与苹果(Apple)达成合作，今日 $INTC 股价上涨 8%。据报道，英特尔高管对特朗普宣布的 $AAPL 合作感到惊讶。说实话，总统现在应该领导英特尔的市场团队。感觉是他一个人在硬扛这支股票。
英文原文
Trump announced Intel + Apple partnership, sending $INTC up 8% today. Intel execs were reportedly surprised by the $AAPL announcement by Donald Trump. TBH, the President should lead Intel's marketing team at this point. Feel's like he's hard carrying the stock.
-
回顾存储暴涨，警示光通信预测过热，但看好光子学处于超周期早期。
提醒一下：3个月前，99%的X用户看空存储芯片... 自那以来：$MU $380 -> $1122 (+195.26%) $SNDK $565 -> $2155 (+281.42%) $EWY $132 -> $219 (+65.91%) SK海力士 849K -> 2.685M KRW (+215.5%) 三星 172K -> 362K KRW (+110.7%) 如果你看到大量预测称三星等存储公司在2028年将成为全球最赚钱的公司。 也许现在应该独立思考，跳出当时的叙事如“石油、LNG、氦气、伊朗等”。 现在对光通信(optical)及其2027、2028年的预测可能也是如此。 但我确实认为光子学(photonics)和存储是两大顶级主题，且光通信正处于超级周期的非常早期阶段。
英文原文
Just a reminder: 99% of X was bearish on memory 3 months ago... Since then: $MU $380 -> $1122 (+195.26%) $SNDK $565 -> $2155 (+281.42%) $EWY $132 -> $219 (+65.91%) SK Hynix 849K -> 2.685M KRW (+215.5%) Samsung 172K -> 362K KRW (+110.7%) If you see a bunch of projections on memory names like Samsung becoming the most profitable company in the world in 2028. Might be a good idea to think independently outside of the narratives at the time like "Oil, LNG, Helium, Iran, etc." Probably same thing now with optical names and their projections into 2027, 2028. I do think photonics and memory are the 2 top themes though, with optics being very early into the supercycle.
-
调侃克拉默定律，称SPCX无法承受其推荐。
我认为吉姆·克拉默（Jim Cramer）的定律值得被写进历史书里。就连 $SPCX 也承受不住他的“祝福”。
英文原文
I think Jim Cramer’s law needs to be studied in history books. Even $SPCX can’t withstand his blessing.
-
感谢中文社区支持，重申对激光及光子学板块的长期看好。
我衷心感谢中文社区对我最看好股票的投资理念进行的深入分析！ 总体而言，像 $AAOI 和 $SIVE 这样的激光公司是我的个人最爱，因为它们拥有巨大的营收扩张空间。它们不仅可以销售激光器，还能制造完整的光模块，以及各种光引擎或 ELS（外部光源）组件。 或者，像 $COHR 那样，它们甚至可以向上游延伸至基板制造，从而实现垂直整合，并持续提升其毛利率和总潜在市场 TAM。 这里的关键部分在于率先准确锁定主要投资主题——毕竟，去年许多人甚至不认为“光子学”能成为一个真正热门的概念。 我认为最让大多数人惊讶的是，我们现在仍处于极其早期的阶段。绝大部分的营收增长直到明年，即 2027 年上半年甚至下半年才会真正启动！ 话虽如此，看到中文社区持续且坚定的支持真的让我感觉很棒。我将竭尽全力不辜负大家给我的绰号：“白发股神”。
英文原文
I'm deeply grateful to the Chinese community for the in-depth analysis of my investment ideas on my most favored stocks! Overall, laser companies like $AAOI and $SIVE are my personal favorites, because they have tremendous room for revenue expansion. They can go beyond just selling lasers to manufacturing complete optical modules, as well as various optical engines or ELS (external light source) components. Or, like $COHR, they can even extend upstream into substrate manufacturing, thereby achieving vertical integration and continuously boosting their gross margins and total addressable market TAM. A big part of the key here lies in being the first to accurately pinpoint the main investment theme—after all, last year many people didn't even think "photonics" could become a truly hot concept. And I think what will surprise most people the most is that we're still in an extremely early stage right now. The vast majority of revenue ramp-up won't truly kick off until next year, in the first half or even second half of 2027! That said, seeing the ongoing and unwavering support from the Chinese community really makes me feel great. I'll do my utmost not to let down the nickname everyone gave me: "White-Haired Stock God."
-
Riber交付量子计算系统并获微软关注，MBE双寡头地位受肯定。
$ALRIB 股东大会纪要今日发布。 - 第二套 ROSIE 系统预计将很快交付给美国一家领先的量子计算玩家。 - 他们还在加强其用于光子学 BTO/STO 产品的商务拓展(BD)，并记录了强烈的兴趣。 - 仅作背景补充：他们是与 Veeco 并存的分子束外延(MBE)双寡头之一，Veeco 近期因量子计算曝光度而大幅重估（披露：我持有 Riber 股票）。 - 整体上是积极的发展。
英文原文
$ALRIB general meeting notes came out today. -2nd ROSIE System expected to be delivered shortly to a leading quantum computing player” in the US. - They’re also intensifying BD for their products used for BTO/STO on photonics and recorded strong interest. Just for background, they’re the MBE duopoly with Veeco, which got re-rated heavily recently (Disclosure own Riber), with exposure to Quantum. Positive development overall.
-
X 财经用户净资产调查显示超 20% 拥有百万美元以上资产。
第一项关于 X 平台股市净资产的大规模研究已完成！ 基于 6000 多名活跃于 X 财经领域的用户回复，结果如下： 5.8% - $10M+ 15% - $1m - $10M 35.9% - $100k - $1M 43.3% - 低于 $100k 这可能更能代表活跃粉丝的情况。 每 100 人中约有 20.8 人拥有超过 100 万美元。 每 100 人中有 5.8 人拥有超过 1000 万美元。 43.3% 的人群可能比其他人更幸福。 只是出于好奇，数据令人着迷。 这肯定不能代表总人口，仅指那些在财经 X 上活跃的人。
英文原文
The 1st large scale X study on stock market net worth has finished! From the 6000+ responses of those active on X finance, here's the results: 5.8% - $10M+ 15% - $1m - $10M 35.9% - $100k - $1M 43.3% - under $100k This is probably more representative of active followers. Where 20.8 out of every 100 people have over $1,000,000+. And 5.8 out of 100 have over $10,000,000. And 43.3% of the population are probably happier in life than the rest. Was just curious, fascinating figures. Definitely not representative of the total population, but just those active on Finance X.
-
WUS 持有高值子公司股份却市值极低，建议管理层减持以释放价值。
我同意 Palliser Capital 的观点。作为股东，WUS（2316 TW）市值仅约 10 亿美元简直太愚蠢了。尽管他们持有昆山 WUS 11.26% 的股份，而后者是一家市值 393 亿美元（2820 亿人民币）的公司……其税前价值达 44.2 亿美元。只需出售四分之一或类似比例的股份？你还能额外获得约 11 亿美元，用于处于 AI 需求拐点的 PCB 增长。这纯粹以现金计算，就已超过你当前的税前市值。此外还有 33 亿美元的资产 + 市场可能会因为愿意减持受限资产而重新评估你的公司。没人要求你减持所有资产，但净资产价值（NAV）的脱节简直是疯狂。WUS TW 管理层真的应该重新考虑。
英文原文
I agree with Palliser Capital here. As a shareholder, it’s just so stupid how WUS (2316 TW) MC can be ~$1B MC. While they own a 11.26% stake of WUS Kunshan, a $39.3B (¥282B CNY) company… Which is worth $4.42B pre-tax. Just sell 1/4th or something? And you get an extra ~$1.1B for PCB growth at the inflection point with AI demand. Which is more than your current MC pre-tax, purely in cash. And there’s still $3.3B in assets + markets might revalue your company because of willingness to trim locked up assets. Nobody is asking you to trim everything, but the NAV disconnect is insanity. WUS TW management should really reconsider.
-
吉姆·克拉默为SPCX背书，暗示其看涨。
吉姆·克拉默(Jim Cramer)为 $SPCX 背书。
英文原文
Jim Cramer gave $SPCX his blessing.
-
AEHR获硅光子客户后续订单，股价两月内从30涨至116美元。
$AEHR 收到主要硅光子(Silicon Photoning)客户关于晶圆级老化(wafer level burn in)系统的后续生产订单。 今日股价上涨 11.29% 至 $116。 就在两个月前它还只有 30 多美元，真是好时光。
英文原文
$AEHR receives follow up production order from major Silicon Photonics Customer for wafer level burn in systems. Now up 11.29% today to $116. Only 2 months ago it was in the $30's, good times.
-
NBIS创新高而IREN套牢，证明NBIS优于IREN。
七个月后…… $NBIS 创下历史新高。 而 $IREN 的套牢盘仍在为 60 亿美元的自动取款机(ATM)融资买单，股价仍停留在 11 月的水平。 看来这场争论到此为止了？
英文原文
And 7 months later... $NBIS is all time highs. While $IREN bagholders are still funding the $6,000,000,000 ATM and stuck at the same price back in November. Guess this settles the debate?
-
XFAB 被低估为主权 AI 受益者，作者好奇市场反应
我觉得 $XFAB 没什么新消息。不过他们的公司确实该在营销材料上做得更好。毕竟没人认为他们算是光学 AI 数据中心或功率半导体相关的敞口。然而，我以为既然他们正通过 PhotonixFab 引领欧洲硅光子学（Silicon Photonics）价值链的努力，加上显然大家都在讨论 Fable 出口管制后的主权 AI 供应链，人们可能会认为他们是主权 AI 推动下的主要受益者之一，与 IMEC、Ligentec 等并列？总之，市场可以持不同意见，或者只是没把这些联系起来。不管怎样，我只是好奇这会如何演变。（披露：持有仓位）
英文原文
Don’t think there’s any new news from $XFAB. Their company needs to do a better job with marketing materials though. Since nobody thinks they’re optical ai dc or power semi adjacent exposure apparently. However, I would have thought that since they’re leading Europe’s silicon photonics value chain efforts with PhotonixFab. And apparently everyone + EU are discussing sovereign AI supply chains after Fable’s export controls. One might think they’re a major beneficiary alongside IMEC, ligentec and others in the sovereign AI push? Anyway, markets can always disagree or maybe they didn’t link things together. Regardless, I’m just curious how this plays out. (Disclosure, own positions)
-
LPK获大客户认可，玻璃基板成封装新趋势，Absolics与三星电机将陆续量产。
我的意思是……如果非要我猜的话，$LPK 确实声称“全球主要玩家中 80% 的客户已选择 LPKF 设备”。 玻璃基板(Glass Substrates)显然是下一个封装技术的转变！ 从预估的时间表来看，主要玩家如 Absolics 将在 2026 年下半年(H2 2026)开始量产爬坡，三星电机(Samsung Electro Mechanics)则在 2027 年。
英文原文
I mean... if i had to guess, $LPK did claim "80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment". Kinda clear glass substrates is the next packaging shift! From est. timelines, major players like Absolics is ramping H2 2026, Samsung Electro Mechanics 2027
-
AMD抢购CW激光，西方供应链产能稀缺，瓶颈或刚开始。
Trendforce 报告称，$AMD 正积极通过多个主要采购订单来确保连续波激光(CW laser)的供应…… 这可能是瓶颈的开端吗？ 除了 $SIVE 或 $AAOI 以及可能的 Macom 之外，西方供应链中几乎没有多少独立产能了。
英文原文
Trendforce reports that $AMD is actively trying to secure CW laser supply with multiple major procurement orders... Is probably just the start of the bottleneck? There's not much independent capacity in Western supply chains left other than $SIVE or $AAOI and maybe Macom.
-
吐槽欧洲媒体将相同观点设为高价付费内容。
欧洲媒体讨厌这一招：同样的观点，只是藏在$2000的付费墙后面。
英文原文
European Media HATES this one trick: The same ideas, just behind $2000 paywalls.
-
批评Bernstein研报离谱，建议散户忽略此类机构报告。
Bernstein 绝对是我见过最蠢的分析机构，居然预测铠侠(Kioxia)股价要暴跌50%。 他们1月份给 $INTC 的目标价是36美元，现在都118美元了。 好好的一课：忽略那些为了迎合散户而发布的机构报告。 他们不是来帮散户投资者的。
英文原文
Bernstein is legit the dumbest analyst firm I’ve seen calling for a 50% crash in Kioxia. They gave $INTC a $36 PT back in Jan and now it’s $118. Good lesson to ignore institutional reports that get published for retail consumption. They’re not here to help retail investors.
-
博主正在研读关于WUS的激进投资者报告。
所以我正在阅读一份关于 $WUS 的激进投资者报告……
英文原文
So I’m reading about an activist report about WUS …
-
反驳对AAOI的看空观点，强调其稀缺激光产能受AMD等巨头青睐。
我不明白为什么很多人对我高确信度的 $AAOI 多头头寸极度看空…… 从 $30 开始，然后一路涨到 $170。（是的，我认为每个看空者都错了，我们走着瞧）。 他们拥有稀缺的激光产能，正是 $AMD 和其他超大规模云服务商所寻求的。
英文原文
I’m not sure why many folks are super bearish on my high conviction $AAOI long… Ever since $30, then on the way up to $170. (Yes I do think every bear is wrong, we’ll see who’s right). They have scarce laser capacity that $AMD and other hyperscalers are looking for. While
-
瑞穗研究：共封装光学(CPO)或800V直流供电均无延迟。 上调了光引擎预测，因 $NVDA 需求加速。 - 认为长期CPO下一阶段，磷铟(InP)分布反馈(DFB)激光器仍是焦点（关注 $SIVE）。垂直表面发射激光器(VSCEL)和微LED在机架内短距及芯片到芯片连接中仍“未经验证”。
英文原文
Mizuho Research: No delays on CPO or 800v dc. Revised up optical engine projections from $NVDA demand ramp. - Next phase in CPO for long term, believes InP DFB lasers remains the focus (hello $SIVE). VSCEL and microLED remain "unproven" in short distance in rack + chip to
-
AI是史最具颠覆性技术，经济影响无法估量。
只是些随想，我认为人工智能(AI)是人类历史上最具颠覆性的技术。其程度堪比农业或工业革命。鉴于Anthropic、OpenAI、xAI等公司正竞相构建超级智能，其经济影响无法估量。
英文原文
Just some random thoughts, I do think AI is the most disruptive technology in human history. To the level of agricultural or industrial revolution. Since Anthropic, OpenAi, XAI, and others are racing to build superintelligence. The amount of economic impact can't be measured
-
SPCX斥资600亿收购Cursor，作者质疑估值但看好其数据价值。
哇， $SPCX 以600亿美元收购了Cursor。 我认为它不值那么多…… 也许网络效应或用于改进模型的数据变得无价？ 我相信埃隆心里有盘算，Twitter收购带来了极大的回报。
英文原文
Woah, $SPCX acquired Cursor for $60B. I did not think it was worth that much… Maybe network effect or data for improving models became invaluable? I’m sure Elon has a plan in mind, the Twitter acquisition paid extreme dividends.
-
博主回应对其研究严谨性的无端指责，重申对AXTI的调研过程。
是啊……我不太明白为什么大家喜欢随意抛出人身攻击。比如每次我发布投资论点时，就扣上“骗局”或“迷因股”的帽子。就像我买入 $AXTI 时（顺便提一下，我仍持有该股）： - 花时间梳理了磷化铟(InP)衬底供应链 - 找到了分析师信源
英文原文
Yeah... I'm not quite sure why everyone likes just throwing personal accusations. Like "scam" or "memestock" every time I post a thesis. Like when I bought $AXTI (still holding shares btw): - spent the time mapping the InP substrate supply chain - found analyst sources
-
博主重申美光如英伟达般受益于AI打破存储周期，验证其投资逻辑。
我确实说过 $MU 看起来像下一个 $NVDA。现在它的市值已达 1.23 万亿美元。早在 2025 年，我就开始更多讨论三星电子/SK 海力士。今年 1 月，我加大了对 $SNDK 等存储主题的关注。我很高兴我对美光+存储的预测是正确的。
英文原文
I did say $MU looked like the next $NVDA . Now we're at a $1.23T MC. Started talking more about Samsung Electronics/Sk Hynix back in 2025. Put more concentration into the memory theme like $SNDK and others, Jan of this year. And I'm glad my prediction with Micron + memory is
-
回顾2025年对光模块及半导体供应链龙头的早期估值判断。
有趣地回顾一下2025年的一些随机想法。 当时， $AAOI 市值为20亿美元， $LITE 市值为260亿美元， $AXTI 市值为5亿美元。 现在： - AAOI 市值为153.7亿美元 - Lumentum 市值为744.7亿美元 - AXT 市值为72.4亿美元 当时由于处于早期主题阶段，掌握的信息较少。 当然，专用集成电路(ASIC)方面存在细微差别。
英文原文
Fun throwback to random ideas back in 2025. Back then, $AAOI was $2B MC, $LITE was a $26B MC, $AXTI was $500M Now: - AAOI is $15.37B - Lumentum is $74.47B - AXT is $7.24B Was working off less information back then, given it was an early theme. Obviously nuances with ASIC