全部推文
共 6364 条 · 第 16 / 213 页 · 滚到底自动加载更多
-
博主拒绝付费推广，呼吁监管预测市场及操纵算法行为。
嗯，看起来预测市场即将面临大量的额外监管审查。他们也应该调查 Polymarket 如何向网红支付费用以换取未披露的付费评论，从而操纵 X 算法。作为 X 上订阅人数最多的人，我经常收到此类报价。但众所周知，我不做付费推广，因为我希望我的研究不受外部影响。
英文原文
Well, looks like prediction markets are about to get a ton of extra regulatory scrutiny. They should also investigate how Polymarket pays influencers for undisclosed paid comments to game the X algorithm. I get offered deals like this all the time as the most subscribed to person on X. But as you know, I don’t do paid promotions since I want my research to be without outside influence.
-
特朗普应修复盟友关系，利用海外供应链优势赢得贸易战。
特朗普政府现在可能意识到，赢得贸易战的关键在于前沿供应链，如量子计算(Quantum)、人工智能(AI)和机器人(Robotics)，而非廉价的耐克袜子出口。鉴于$ASML、$TOWA、$LPK、味之素(Ajinomoto)等关键企业位于日本、欧盟、台湾、韩国等地，且各国掌握着使这些行业运转所需的垄断技术和瓶颈环节，而这些都恰好位于美国境外。对所有合作伙伴加征关税显然不是个好主意。但在我看来，现在修复关系并通过合作伙伴将全球供应链武器化以换取更好的贸易协议，为时未晚。
英文原文
Trump administration is prob realizing now that the key to winning Trade Wars: Is through frontier supply chains like Quantum, AI, Robotics. Not cheap Nike sock exports. With $ASML , $TOWA, $LPK, Ajinomoto, over in Japan, EU, TW, Korea, and others holding all the cards… Since each country holds different monopolies and chokepoints needed to make each industry work. Which all happens to be OUTSIDE the US. Tariffing all our partners turned out to be not a great idea. But not too late imo to repair relations and weaponize global supply chains through partners if Trump wants better trade deals.
-
博主首次提及 organ-o 这一名称。
这是我第一次听到 organ-o 这个名字……
英文原文
This is the first time I’ve heard the name organ-o…
-
博主回顾过往观点遭质疑后获市场验证的经历，强调市场是最终裁判。
我想你一定是新来的。我的许多观点起初都会遭遇强烈反对，尤其是那些更具原创性的观点。$AXTI 遭受无尽谩骂，甚至导致我被 $RDDT WSB 论坛禁言。人们以为它是家骗人的中国公司，但路透社、Epiwafer 财报及机构验证了其磷化铟(InP)衬底地位。$RPI 被所有人称为“梗股”。彭博、金融时报等媒体称其无基本面。分析师称其想法愚蠢且将崩盘。但财报显示其前瞻营收增长58%。他们似乎忘了之前的反对，现在却将其视为高增长AI硬件公司。$SIVE 也被叫作“梗股”，我遭到瑞典媒体大量攻击。人们不懂技术细节，莫名进行人身攻击。但如你所知，这可能是我最成功的观点，已获富达研究、摩根大通机构买入及 $JBL 至 $GFS 的正式合作验证。同样的仇恨也发生在：$AAOI $30时，管理层被称“骗局”；$LITE $300时，光子学被称“泡沫”；$RKLB $20时，被视为低营收泡沫公司，我因发帖被WSB临时禁言；$HOOD $20时，人们想起其冻结GME交易；$IQE $12时，被视为英国无光子学合作的垃圾公司；$SOI $44时，欧洲分析师称其“高估”；$NBIS $75时，$IREN 阵营称我散布俄罗斯宣传且无护城河；$INTC $115时，人们认为其无法与 $TSM 竞争；$MRVL $85时，人们认为其正失去ASIC份额给博通；$AEHR $35时，人们误读财报认为其无营收；$EWY $115时，人们哭诉KOSPI是泡沫且LNG/氦气/石油将颠覆存储贸易。例子不胜枚举……我常看评论，所以记得很多仇恨（我猜是嫉妒、博眼球或缺乏技术深度）。但现在，人们可以看到每个论点被反复验证。市场成功淹没了旧噪音。好消息是，市场是判断对错的最终仲裁者，而非X上的愤怒评论。
英文原文
I think u must be new here. Many of my ideas get intense backlash at the start, especially the more original they are. $AXTI - endless hate to the point I got banned from the $RDDT WSB forum. They thought it was some scam Chinese company, but Reuters, Epiwafer company earnings, and institutions validated their InP substrate position many months later. $RPI - everyone called it some meme stock. Literally Bloomberg, Financial Times, and others went out and called it a meme stock with no fundamentals. Analysts went and said the idea was stupid and said it was going to crash “as a fact”. Earnings came out? Blew away any projection with 58% fwd revenue growth. But they seem to have forgot all the backlash they threw out at me, while they’re citing it as a high growth ai hardware company no. $SIVE? Everyone called it a “meme stock”. I get bunch of hate from Swedish media all the way up. Bunch of people didn’t understand the technical nuances, and they keep throwing personal attacks for some strange reason. But as you know it’s probably my most successful idea and it’s validated so far by institutional buying from Fidelity Research, JP Morgan as well as formally announced partnerships from $JBL to $GFS . Same hate with: - $AAOI at $30, when everyone called management a “scam” or “shady” - $LITE at $300 when everyone called photonics a “bubble” - $RKLB at $20 when everyone thought it was a low revenue launch company that was a bubble. I actually got temp banned from WSB from posting about Rocketlab since moderators didn’t like the stock. - $HOOD at $20 when everyone recalled them freezing GME buys/sells - $IQE at $12 when people thought it was just some random crap $100m company over in the UK with “no actual photonics partnerships” - $SOI at $44 when European bank analysts thought it was “overvalued”and my thesis wasn’t anything new - $NBIS at $75 when everyone in the $IREN camp said I was spreading Russian propaganda and that they had no moat - $INTC at $115 when everyone thought they couldn’t compete with $TSM - $MRVL at $85 when everyone thought they were losing ASIC share to Broadcom. - $AEHR at $35 when everyone misread their earnings and thought they had no revenue - $EWY at $115 when everyone was crying KOSPI was a bubble and LNG/helium/oil would disrupt the memory trade Can go on and on… I do read a lot of the comments, which is why I remember a lot of the hate (probably either jealously, impression farming, or lacking the technical depth is my guess). But I think at this point, people can just see each thesis validated over and over again. And the success in markets drown out the old noise. Good thing is markets are the final arbiter of what’s right or wrong, not the angry comments or posts on X.
-
博主简短回复确认。
当然
英文原文
Sure
-
博主澄清初衷非盈利，仅免费分享，对订阅量感到意外与感激。
我的目标从来不是为了赚钱！只是免费分享想法给那些关心的人。 我很感激这成了那样做之后的副产品。 订阅者也是一样，我把门槛设得极低，只是为了不让我的随机想法刷屏主时间线，也没想到会有这么多人订阅。
英文原文
The goal was never to make money! Just sharing ideas for free to the people who care. I’m just grateful this came as a byproduct of doing that. Same with subscribers, I set it to the bare minimum amount just so my random thoughts didn’t spam the main timeline, and didn’t expect this amount of people to subscribe.
-
博主回应X收入分成计划，表示无论是否付费都会继续分享。
我发这条推文是因为大家似乎对 X 的收入分成计划非常好奇。 真的没想到每两周能获得超过 1 亿次的浏览量！ 不过，即使这是免费的，且我只是和 $RDDT 的几个朋友分享想法，我也会继续做同样的事情。
英文原文
I’m just posting this since people seem really curious about X’s revenue sharing program. Genuinely didn’t expect to get seen 100M+ times every 2 weeks! Would keep doing the same thing tho, even if it were free and I just had a few friends from $RDDT to share ideas with.
-
分析多只AI供应链股票的NAV折价、控股结构及增长潜力，偏好独立增长标的。
个人笔记如下： 1. Priortech 持有 $CAMT 21% 的股份，市值约为其 1.35 倍，看起来更像是一家控股公司。 2. Bit Digital 的人一直在喊单，但 $WYFI 的净资产值(NAV)折价并不纯粹，存在大量稀释且并非 AI 母公司。 3. 纬创(3231)是我自 $SIVE 以来见过的最佳标的，加上 Ayar 和纬颖(Wiwynn)是我最喜欢的“三剑客”。 市值约 162 亿美元，第一季度收入增长惊人，同比增长 144%。 持有纬颖 35.46% 的股份，约为其市值的 0.66 倍。我预计纬颖将继续增长。 4. 中美硅科技(5483)持有全球晶圆(6488) 46.64% 的股份。 市值 35 亿美元，持股价值约 79 亿美元，但独立增长并不快，尽管其交易价格大幅低于净资产值(NAV)。 5. 一真控股(Iljin Holdings)持有一真电气(Iljin Electric) 42.99% 的股份，市值约 2.2 亿美元，而净资产值(NAV)持股约 11.3 亿美元。这与变压器/电缆直流相关。 但我不确定是否相信韩国股票能实现 NAV 解锁，可能更适合激进投资者(Activist Investors)。 6. Simmtech Holdings 市值约 1.7 亿美元，而母公司约 10 亿美元，看起来也很离谱。 即 6 倍以上的 NAV。这是 PCB 基板相关的名字。同样，另一个可能不信任韩国治理类型的名字。 我认为 $ACMR 和沪硅产业(WUS) 很快都会有 H 股子公司上市，且这两者拥有最大的 NAV 折价和独立增长能力。 此外，有一位非常成功的激进投资者正在针对沪硅产业，所以我预计那里会达成某种中间立场。 所以也许周一我会在此基础上增加这些股票的持仓集中度，我们拭目以待。纬创独立增长非常快。 我仍在进行研究，通常这些是“淋浴时的想法”，因为我尚未正式得出结论，但觉得其他人可能感兴趣。
英文原文
In terms of personal notes: 1. Priortech owns 21% of $CAMT , ~1.35x their MC, seems more like holding co. 2. Bit Digital people kept shouting, but NAV discount is not clean $WYFI , lot of dilution + not AI parent. 3. Wistron (3231) is the best one I've seen since $SIVE + Ayar + Wiwynn are one of my favorite trio. ~$16.2B MC, Q1 revenue up a ridiculous amount with 144% Y/Y growth. Owns 35.46% of Wiwynn, which is ~0.66x of MC. I'd expect Wiwynn to keep on growing. 4. Sin-American Silicon 5483 does own 46.64% of GlobalWafers (6488). MC is $3.5B, stake value is ~$7.9B, but not exactly growing too fast independently, though it's heavily trading heavily discount to NAV. 5. Iljin Holdings owns 42.99% of Iljin Electric, it's ~$0.22B MC vs. ~$1.13B NAV holding. This was transformer/cable DC related. But again idk if I trust korean stocks for NAV unlock, probably better for activist investors. 6. Simmtech Holdings was ~$0.17B MC vs. ~$1.0B of parent, which also looks ridiculous. So 6x+ NAV. PCB substrate related name. Also another prob don't trust korean governance type name. I think both $ACMR and WUS have H-Share subsidiary listing soon, and those were the biggest NAV discounts with independent growth. Then you have a highly successful activist going after WUS so I'd expect some middle ground there. So maybe I'll put more concentration into those on top of what I already own Monday, we'll see. And Wistron was growing very fast independently. I'm still doing research, normally this goes in shower thoughts since I haven't formally made a conclusion, but thought others might be interested.
-
LPK会议纪要显示其计划纳斯达克上市且目标激进，博主认为其被严重低估。
哇，我完全错过了 $LPK 会议纪要中的这一点。我认为市场也错过了。我最大的收获： - 纳斯达克上市已在其积极考虑范围内，且正在讨论中。 - 目标市场份额为 70%，这是一个极其激进的目标。 - 总可寻址市场(TAM)远超此前预测。 - 预计今年将有 4-5 家基准玩家获得订单。 - 行业已准备好进行大规模量产爬坡。 基于这些讨论，我认为 $LPK 被严重低估（披露：持有仓位）。
英文原文
Wow, I completely missed this with $LPK meeting notes. And I think markets did too. My biggest takeaway: - NASDAQ listing is actively on their radar and are in discussions. - 70% market share targeted, unholy target. - TAM greatly exceeds former projections. - See a 4-5 base case of players this year with orders. - Industry is ready for high volume ramps. I do think LPK is very undervalued based on these discussions (disclosure: own positions).
-
博主反思未买入MLCC瓶颈受益股，错失大幅涨幅。
提醒我，每当我指出一个瓶颈时，我自己都应该做多。我之前刚提出过关于 MLCC（多层陶瓷电容器）瓶颈的想法。太诱电（Taiyo Yuden）上涨 211.38%，$VSH 上涨 146.15%，村田（Murata）上涨 155.43%。就在过去两个月内……感觉真糟。
英文原文
Remind me whenever I call out a bottleneck, I should go long myself. Just floated this idea out around MLCC bottlenecks awhile back. Taiyo Yuden up 211.38% $VSH up 146.15% Murata up 155.43% Within the last 2 months... Feels bad.
-
博主复盘持仓：核心主题盈利丰厚，但CPO及韩国股短期亏损，强调中期视角。
我想强调的一点是，并非我所有的观点都是盈利的，尤其是在短期时间框架内！ 我的核心三大主题是：新云（能源）、存储和光子学。 我很高兴我从每个细分领域选择了字面意义上的顶级表现者，从 $NBIS 到 $EWY，再到 $SIVE。 然而，由于一份关于共封装光学(CPO)延迟的虚假分析师报告（$NVDA 已驳斥），我仍然承受着相当大的亏损： 这摧毁了我3个台湾CPO多头头寸，包括 Foci、Msscorp、Xintec 等（目前大幅亏损）。不过，Shunsin 和 Win Semi 的表现要好得多。 我之前提到的一些日本公司，如 Towa、Harmonic Drive、NCI 等，在短期波动后表现要好得多。 至于韩国，是的，我对 Auros 和现在的 Foosung 都有创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)，两者都亏损（我并没有持有 093370，只是看着价格走势感到 PTSD）。 我不知道是否还会再碰韩国，波动性太大了。但我仍然认为，随着 SK 海力士/三星的资格认证 + 大规模量产(HVM) 以及未来日本供应链的关闭，这些最终会转为盈利。 我也改变了一些之前的多头观点，比如 $XLU，因为伊朗战争将降息预期从3-4次降至0次，这并没有很好地兑现。我之前提到的三家软件公司 $TTD、$META 最终都亏损了。对于 $SNAP，我在注意到其无尽的基于股票的薪酬(SBC)会计方法后也改变了论点。$RDDT 的观点在很长一段时间内终于从 $130 涨到 $170 转为盈利。 但我想，我绝大多数的观点，如 $MRVL、$NBIS、$ARM、$INTC、$MU、$LITE、SK 海力士、三星（针对大盘股）。 一直到 $AXTI、$LITE、$AAOI、$RPI、$IQE 等（针对小盘股）的方向性表现都相当不错。 像 $SIMO、$HPS.A、$TSEM、$AEHR、$LPK、$SOI、$ALRIB 等随机标的也都表现尚可。 由于我大多数的多头观点今年至今(YTD)都是三位数的收益，混合平均收益可以说是压倒性的绿色（盈利）。 但我确实错过了一些。 入场点也很重要……我提到 $AAOI 在 $30 或 $AXTI 在 ~$13 时，但并非每个人都有相同的入场点。所以如果有人在 $220 买入 AOI 然后跌到 $160，我会感到抱歉。 但无论如何，我更倾向于在几个月的中期时间框架内，而不是几周的时间框架内，来评判观点的兑现情况。
英文原文
I think something to highlight also is not all my ideas are green, especially on short term timeframes! My core three themes are Neoclouds (Energy), Memory, and Photonics. And I'm glad I chose the literal top performers for each segment from $NBIS to $EWY leaps to $SIVE. However, I still have pretty large losses following the false analyst report on CPO delays that $NVDA refuted: That nuked 3 of my TW CPO longs from Foci, Msscorp, Xintec and others. (which are heavily red). Shunsin / Win Semi are holding up much better though. Some of the other ones in Japan that I've mentioned like Towa, Harmonic Drive, NCI, etc. are performing much better following short-term volatility. As for Korea yes I have PTSD for from Auros and now Foosung that are both both red (I didn't own 093370 though, just got PTSD watching price action). Idk if I'll touch Korea again, just way too volatile. But I still think those will end up green eventually following Sk hynix/samsung qualifications + HVM, and the future japanese supply chain shutdown. I also did change some of my previous long ideas like $XLU following the Iran War nuking all chances of rate cuts from 3-4 down to 0, and that didn't play out too well. Three software names I mentioned previously like $TTD , $META ended up red. $SNAP , I also changed my thesis after noticing the endless SBC accounting methods. $RDDT idea was finally in the green from $130 -> $170 after a long time. But I think the vast majority of my ideas like $MRVL , $NBIS , $ARM , $INTC , $MU , $LITE , SK Hynix, Samsung, for larger cap. Down to $AXTI , $LITE , $AAOI , $RPI, $IQE, and others for smaller cap positions directionally play out pretty well. With random stuff like $SIMO , $HPS.A, $TSEM , $AEHR , $LPK, $SOI, $ALRIB, and so on all ended up turning out aight too. The blended average is kinda overwhelmingly green since majority of my long ideas are triple digit YTD. But I've definitely missed a few. Also entry point is really important too... I mentioned $AAOI at $30 or $AXTI at ~$13, but not everyone has the same entry point. So if someone bought AOI at $220 and it dropped to $160, I'd feel bad. But regardless, I'd prefer to judge how ideas play out on medium term timeframes over a few months rather than a few weeks.
-
警示散户勿盲从机构研报，以Kioxia暴涨为例证伪Bernstein看空。
Bernstein 基本上就是机构版的 Jim Cramer：告诉散户 Kioxia 看起来要崩盘，给出 -50% 的目标价。一堆散户卖出。股价随后直接飙升，今天又涨了 +12%。
英文原文
Bernstein is basically the institutional version of Jim Cramer: Tells retail Kioxia looks like it’s going to crash, gives a -50% PT. Bunch of retail sells. Stock proceeds to skyrocket right after, with another +12% today.
-
AI垃圾内容污染大模型检索，形成低质信息反馈循环。
只是一个随机想法，也许有人能创办一家初创公司来解决这个问题： 我观察到一个有趣的趋势，即人类可识别的内容农场垃圾网站，如“Ad Hoc News”。 它们每天针对特定公司发布大量旧的/重复的误导性AI新闻以获取流量。 但这些内容被AI检索视为高权重且新鲜。因此，Gemini等大语言模型(LLM)在引用这些数据时受到污染。 接着，像大学生这样没有技术背景的人使用AI撰写他们并不理解的报告。 然后LLM在训练/检索中也被这些内容污染，导致人们混淆错误的技术细节，例如将连续波分布反馈激光器(cw dfb laser)阵列的单通道与单高功率激光器的输出进行比较。 因此，低阶AI反馈进入前沿AI，形成循环。模型检索受到污染。
英文原文
Just a random thought, maybe someone can do a startup to solve this: Interesting trend I’m seeing is human-recognized content farm spam sites like “Ad Hoc News”. Flooding tens of old/repeated misleading AI news every day on specific companies for views. But it’s treated highly + fresh to AI retrieval. So LLMs like Gemini get polluted citing that data. Then you have people without technical backgrounds like college students making writeups on things they don’t understand, using AI. Then LLMs get polluted in training/retrieval with that too, so you see people conflating the wrong technical nuance like comparing single channels of a cw dfb laser array vs. single high power lasers outputs. So you have a feedback loop of low tier AI feeding into frontier AI. With model retrieval getting contaminated.
-
质疑中国如何从ASML走私大型设备。
中国究竟是如何从 $ASML 走私进一辆校车大小的东西的？这才是真正的问题。
英文原文
How does China manage to smuggle in something the size of a school bus from $ASML ? Is the real question.
-
博主寻求具备AI增长潜力的最大NAV折价标的以拓展研究
有人有最大净资产价值(NAV)折价清单或想法吗？但独立具备人工智能(AI)增长潜力？ 像 $ACMR 和 WUS (2316) 相比 SK Square 这样更极端的标的。 我持有上述标的，只是想研究更多机会。 最近似乎开始受到关注
英文原文
Anyone got a list or ideas of the biggest NAV discounts. But independently has AI growth? Stuff more extreme end like $ACMR and WUS (2316) compared to SK Square. Have exposure to the ones above, just wanted to research more opportunities. Seems to be getting noticed recently
-
特朗普宣布苹果英特尔合作，博主调侃其硬扛英特尔股价。
特朗普宣布英特尔(Intel)与苹果(Apple)达成合作，今日 $INTC 股价上涨 8%。据报道，英特尔高管对特朗普宣布的 $AAPL 合作感到惊讶。说实话，总统现在应该领导英特尔的市场团队。感觉是他一个人在硬扛这支股票。
英文原文
Trump announced Intel + Apple partnership, sending $INTC up 8% today. Intel execs were reportedly surprised by the $AAPL announcement by Donald Trump. TBH, the President should lead Intel's marketing team at this point. Feel's like he's hard carrying the stock.
-
回顾存储暴涨，警示光通信预测过热，但看好光子学处于超周期早期。
提醒一下：3个月前，99%的X用户看空存储芯片... 自那以来：$MU $380 -> $1122 (+195.26%) $SNDK $565 -> $2155 (+281.42%) $EWY $132 -> $219 (+65.91%) SK海力士 849K -> 2.685M KRW (+215.5%) 三星 172K -> 362K KRW (+110.7%) 如果你看到大量预测称三星等存储公司在2028年将成为全球最赚钱的公司。 也许现在应该独立思考，跳出当时的叙事如“石油、LNG、氦气、伊朗等”。 现在对光通信(optical)及其2027、2028年的预测可能也是如此。 但我确实认为光子学(photonics)和存储是两大顶级主题，且光通信正处于超级周期的非常早期阶段。
英文原文
Just a reminder: 99% of X was bearish on memory 3 months ago... Since then: $MU $380 -> $1122 (+195.26%) $SNDK $565 -> $2155 (+281.42%) $EWY $132 -> $219 (+65.91%) SK Hynix 849K -> 2.685M KRW (+215.5%) Samsung 172K -> 362K KRW (+110.7%) If you see a bunch of projections on memory names like Samsung becoming the most profitable company in the world in 2028. Might be a good idea to think independently outside of the narratives at the time like "Oil, LNG, Helium, Iran, etc." Probably same thing now with optical names and their projections into 2027, 2028. I do think photonics and memory are the 2 top themes though, with optics being very early into the supercycle.
-
调侃克拉默定律，称SPCX无法承受其推荐。
我认为吉姆·克拉默（Jim Cramer）的定律值得被写进历史书里。就连 $SPCX 也承受不住他的“祝福”。
英文原文
I think Jim Cramer’s law needs to be studied in history books. Even $SPCX can’t withstand his blessing.
-
感谢中文社区支持，重申对激光及光子学板块的长期看好。
我衷心感谢中文社区对我最看好股票的投资理念进行的深入分析！ 总体而言，像 $AAOI 和 $SIVE 这样的激光公司是我的个人最爱，因为它们拥有巨大的营收扩张空间。它们不仅可以销售激光器，还能制造完整的光模块，以及各种光引擎或 ELS（外部光源）组件。 或者，像 $COHR 那样，它们甚至可以向上游延伸至基板制造，从而实现垂直整合，并持续提升其毛利率和总潜在市场 TAM。 这里的关键部分在于率先准确锁定主要投资主题——毕竟，去年许多人甚至不认为“光子学”能成为一个真正热门的概念。 我认为最让大多数人惊讶的是，我们现在仍处于极其早期的阶段。绝大部分的营收增长直到明年，即 2027 年上半年甚至下半年才会真正启动！ 话虽如此，看到中文社区持续且坚定的支持真的让我感觉很棒。我将竭尽全力不辜负大家给我的绰号：“白发股神”。
英文原文
I'm deeply grateful to the Chinese community for the in-depth analysis of my investment ideas on my most favored stocks! Overall, laser companies like $AAOI and $SIVE are my personal favorites, because they have tremendous room for revenue expansion. They can go beyond just selling lasers to manufacturing complete optical modules, as well as various optical engines or ELS (external light source) components. Or, like $COHR, they can even extend upstream into substrate manufacturing, thereby achieving vertical integration and continuously boosting their gross margins and total addressable market TAM. A big part of the key here lies in being the first to accurately pinpoint the main investment theme—after all, last year many people didn't even think "photonics" could become a truly hot concept. And I think what will surprise most people the most is that we're still in an extremely early stage right now. The vast majority of revenue ramp-up won't truly kick off until next year, in the first half or even second half of 2027! That said, seeing the ongoing and unwavering support from the Chinese community really makes me feel great. I'll do my utmost not to let down the nickname everyone gave me: "White-Haired Stock God."
-
Riber交付量子计算系统并获微软关注，MBE双寡头地位受肯定。
$ALRIB 股东大会纪要今日发布。 - 第二套 ROSIE 系统预计将很快交付给美国一家领先的量子计算玩家。 - 他们还在加强其用于光子学 BTO/STO 产品的商务拓展(BD)，并记录了强烈的兴趣。 - 仅作背景补充：他们是与 Veeco 并存的分子束外延(MBE)双寡头之一，Veeco 近期因量子计算曝光度而大幅重估（披露：我持有 Riber 股票）。 - 整体上是积极的发展。
英文原文
$ALRIB general meeting notes came out today. -2nd ROSIE System expected to be delivered shortly to a leading quantum computing player” in the US. - They’re also intensifying BD for their products used for BTO/STO on photonics and recorded strong interest. Just for background, they’re the MBE duopoly with Veeco, which got re-rated heavily recently (Disclosure own Riber), with exposure to Quantum. Positive development overall.
-
X 财经用户净资产调查显示超 20% 拥有百万美元以上资产。
第一项关于 X 平台股市净资产的大规模研究已完成！ 基于 6000 多名活跃于 X 财经领域的用户回复，结果如下： 5.8% - $10M+ 15% - $1m - $10M 35.9% - $100k - $1M 43.3% - 低于 $100k 这可能更能代表活跃粉丝的情况。 每 100 人中约有 20.8 人拥有超过 100 万美元。 每 100 人中有 5.8 人拥有超过 1000 万美元。 43.3% 的人群可能比其他人更幸福。 只是出于好奇，数据令人着迷。 这肯定不能代表总人口，仅指那些在财经 X 上活跃的人。
英文原文
The 1st large scale X study on stock market net worth has finished! From the 6000+ responses of those active on X finance, here's the results: 5.8% - $10M+ 15% - $1m - $10M 35.9% - $100k - $1M 43.3% - under $100k This is probably more representative of active followers. Where 20.8 out of every 100 people have over $1,000,000+. And 5.8 out of 100 have over $10,000,000. And 43.3% of the population are probably happier in life than the rest. Was just curious, fascinating figures. Definitely not representative of the total population, but just those active on Finance X.
-
WUS 持有高值子公司股份却市值极低，建议管理层减持以释放价值。
我同意 Palliser Capital 的观点。作为股东，WUS（2316 TW）市值仅约 10 亿美元简直太愚蠢了。尽管他们持有昆山 WUS 11.26% 的股份，而后者是一家市值 393 亿美元（2820 亿人民币）的公司……其税前价值达 44.2 亿美元。只需出售四分之一或类似比例的股份？你还能额外获得约 11 亿美元，用于处于 AI 需求拐点的 PCB 增长。这纯粹以现金计算，就已超过你当前的税前市值。此外还有 33 亿美元的资产 + 市场可能会因为愿意减持受限资产而重新评估你的公司。没人要求你减持所有资产，但净资产价值（NAV）的脱节简直是疯狂。WUS TW 管理层真的应该重新考虑。
英文原文
I agree with Palliser Capital here. As a shareholder, it’s just so stupid how WUS (2316 TW) MC can be ~$1B MC. While they own a 11.26% stake of WUS Kunshan, a $39.3B (¥282B CNY) company… Which is worth $4.42B pre-tax. Just sell 1/4th or something? And you get an extra ~$1.1B for PCB growth at the inflection point with AI demand. Which is more than your current MC pre-tax, purely in cash. And there’s still $3.3B in assets + markets might revalue your company because of willingness to trim locked up assets. Nobody is asking you to trim everything, but the NAV disconnect is insanity. WUS TW management should really reconsider.
-
吉姆·克拉默为SPCX背书，暗示其看涨。
吉姆·克拉默(Jim Cramer)为 $SPCX 背书。
英文原文
Jim Cramer gave $SPCX his blessing.
-
AEHR获硅光子客户后续订单，股价两月内从30涨至116美元。
$AEHR 收到主要硅光子(Silicon Photoning)客户关于晶圆级老化(wafer level burn in)系统的后续生产订单。 今日股价上涨 11.29% 至 $116。 就在两个月前它还只有 30 多美元，真是好时光。
英文原文
$AEHR receives follow up production order from major Silicon Photonics Customer for wafer level burn in systems. Now up 11.29% today to $116. Only 2 months ago it was in the $30's, good times.
-
NBIS创新高而IREN套牢，证明NBIS优于IREN。
七个月后…… $NBIS 创下历史新高。 而 $IREN 的套牢盘仍在为 60 亿美元的自动取款机(ATM)融资买单，股价仍停留在 11 月的水平。 看来这场争论到此为止了？
英文原文
And 7 months later... $NBIS is all time highs. While $IREN bagholders are still funding the $6,000,000,000 ATM and stuck at the same price back in November. Guess this settles the debate?
-
XFAB 被低估为主权 AI 受益者，作者好奇市场反应
我觉得 $XFAB 没什么新消息。不过他们的公司确实该在营销材料上做得更好。毕竟没人认为他们算是光学 AI 数据中心或功率半导体相关的敞口。然而，我以为既然他们正通过 PhotonixFab 引领欧洲硅光子学（Silicon Photonics）价值链的努力，加上显然大家都在讨论 Fable 出口管制后的主权 AI 供应链，人们可能会认为他们是主权 AI 推动下的主要受益者之一，与 IMEC、Ligentec 等并列？总之，市场可以持不同意见，或者只是没把这些联系起来。不管怎样，我只是好奇这会如何演变。（披露：持有仓位）
英文原文
Don’t think there’s any new news from $XFAB. Their company needs to do a better job with marketing materials though. Since nobody thinks they’re optical ai dc or power semi adjacent exposure apparently. However, I would have thought that since they’re leading Europe’s silicon photonics value chain efforts with PhotonixFab. And apparently everyone + EU are discussing sovereign AI supply chains after Fable’s export controls. One might think they’re a major beneficiary alongside IMEC, ligentec and others in the sovereign AI push? Anyway, markets can always disagree or maybe they didn’t link things together. Regardless, I’m just curious how this plays out. (Disclosure, own positions)
-
LPK获大客户认可，玻璃基板成封装新趋势，Absolics与三星电机将陆续量产。
我的意思是……如果非要我猜的话，$LPK 确实声称“全球主要玩家中 80% 的客户已选择 LPKF 设备”。 玻璃基板(Glass Substrates)显然是下一个封装技术的转变！ 从预估的时间表来看，主要玩家如 Absolics 将在 2026 年下半年(H2 2026)开始量产爬坡，三星电机(Samsung Electro Mechanics)则在 2027 年。
英文原文
I mean... if i had to guess, $LPK did claim "80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment". Kinda clear glass substrates is the next packaging shift! From est. timelines, major players like Absolics is ramping H2 2026, Samsung Electro Mechanics 2027
-
AMD抢购CW激光，西方供应链产能稀缺，瓶颈或刚开始。
Trendforce 报告称，$AMD 正积极通过多个主要采购订单来确保连续波激光(CW laser)的供应…… 这可能是瓶颈的开端吗？ 除了 $SIVE 或 $AAOI 以及可能的 Macom 之外，西方供应链中几乎没有多少独立产能了。
英文原文
Trendforce reports that $AMD is actively trying to secure CW laser supply with multiple major procurement orders... Is probably just the start of the bottleneck? There's not much independent capacity in Western supply chains left other than $SIVE or $AAOI and maybe Macom.
-
吐槽欧洲媒体将相同观点设为高价付费内容。
欧洲媒体讨厌这一招：同样的观点，只是藏在$2000的付费墙后面。
英文原文
European Media HATES this one trick: The same ideas, just behind $2000 paywalls.
-
批评Bernstein研报离谱，建议散户忽略此类机构报告。
Bernstein 绝对是我见过最蠢的分析机构，居然预测铠侠(Kioxia)股价要暴跌50%。 他们1月份给 $INTC 的目标价是36美元，现在都118美元了。 好好的一课：忽略那些为了迎合散户而发布的机构报告。 他们不是来帮散户投资者的。
英文原文
Bernstein is legit the dumbest analyst firm I’ve seen calling for a 50% crash in Kioxia. They gave $INTC a $36 PT back in Jan and now it’s $118. Good lesson to ignore institutional reports that get published for retail consumption. They’re not here to help retail investors.