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美光财报及指引大幅超预期，签署16份长期协议，表现惊艳。
每次看美光($MU)的财报都令人惊叹： 营收：414.6亿美元，高于预期的358亿美元。 每股收益(EPS)：25.11美元，高于预期的20.78美元。 前瞻指引： 营收：490亿至510亿美元，高于预期的432.4亿美元。 每股收益(EPS)：30.00至32.00美元，高于预期的25.31美元。 “美光周三表示已签署16份长期协议” “完成后，https://t.co/SlscP4IoI8
英文原文
Always amazing looking at $MU earnings: Revenue: $41.46B vs. $35.8B est. EPS: $25.11 vs. $20.78 est. Forecasts: Revenue: $49B to $51B, vs $43.24B est EPS: $30.00 to $32.00, vs. $25.31. “Micron said on Wednesday that it has signed 16 long-term agreements” "When completed, https://t.co/SlscP4IoI8
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披露佩洛西丈夫5月底买入INTC和UBER看涨期权
南希·佩洛西刚刚披露： - 100万至500万美元的 $INTC 2027年3月看涨期权 - 200份 $UBER 2027年3月19日行权价为50美元的看涨期权合约 这些操作是在上个月5月29日进行的。（她的丈夫是执行这些交易的活跃交易者。）仅分享给喜欢 https://t.co/HDtn0T7QYL 的朋友们
英文原文
Nancy Pelosi just disclosed: - $1 million - $5 million of $INTC March 2027 calls - 200 $UBER March 19, 2027 call option contracts with a $50 strike price This was done last month May 29th. (her husband is the active trader executing this). Just for the people who like https://t.co/HDtn0T7QYL
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POET/SIVE有望为三大超大规模云服务商提供动力
来自 Poet OSINT 社区的有趣新信息发现： $POET / $SIVE 很可能将为顶级三大超大规模云服务商（亚马逊、微软、谷歌之一）提供动力。 鉴于 Lumilens 首席执行官 Ankur Singla 的 LinkedIn 更新。 他声明他们的客户是前三大之一 https://t.co/Rs0D8HE1T9
英文原文
Fun new information discovery from Poet OSINT community: Seems likely that $POET / $SIVE are going to power a Top-3 hyperscaler (either Amazon, Microsoft, Google). Given a Linkedin update from Ankur Singla (CEO of Lumilens). Who stated their customer is one of the top 3 https://t.co/Rs0D8HE1T9
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梳理OpenLight在Advantest之外的公开供应链生态伙伴。
OpenLight（私有公司）每次我看它似乎都在变得越来越大。 如果你对他们 Advantest 之外的公开生态系统感兴趣： $JBL（$SIVE 合作伙伴）用于扩展光子集成电路(PICs) $MRVL 和 $MXL 用于数字信号处理器(DSPs) $TSEM 用于晶圆代工。 $300394.SZ / TFC Optical（封装测试/子组件）
英文原文
OpenLight (private) seems to get bigger and bigger every time I look at it. If you’re curious about their public ecosystem outside of Advantest: $JBL ( $SIVE partner ) for scaling PICs $MRVL and $MXL for DSPs $TSEM for the foundry. $300394.SZ / TFC Optical (OSAT/subassembly)
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反驳资本支出被抽走论，看好亚马逊作为超大规模云服务商的投资价值。
我不太认为“被抽走”是准确的用词。这是为了未来大幅营收增长或利润率提升而进行的资本支出(Capex)。$AMZN 可能是我目前最看好的超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler)，也是很好的例子。亚马逊的雇员数量惊人，约157万。如果这笔资本支出用于...
英文原文
Don’t quite think “siphoned off” is the correct term. It’s capex for massive revenue increase or margin increase down the line. $AMZN is probably my favorite hyperscaler right now and example to give. Amazon’s headcount is absurd, like ~1.57M. If the capex goes into
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Reddit 用户发起病毒运动推动温迪汉堡股价隔夜大涨 20%。
我觉得很有趣，$RDDT 上的投机客们（degens）正在发起一场病毒式运动来拯救温迪汉堡（Wendy's，$WEN）。这家美国快餐汉堡连锁店的股价一夜之间上涨了 20%。作为背景补充：温迪汉堡是一个流行的社区梗，人们调侃在垃圾桶后面工作。
英文原文
I find it interesting that the degens on $RDDT are starting a viral campaign to save Wendy’s ( $WEN ). The US fast food burger chain. And the stock price is now up 20% overnight. Just for background: Wendy’s is a popular community meme, where people work behind the dumpsters https://t.co/AGFxxnxZRo
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博主认为波段反弹交易是有趣的副业。
波段/反弹交易总是一个有趣的副业爱好。…
英文原文
Swing/recovery trading is always a fun side hobby.…
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博主调侃今日半导体板块大跌，列出多只个股跌幅。
好奇有没有人的投资组合在今天这个“有趣”的日子里是绿色的（盈利的）。 $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% SK海力士: -12.35% 三星: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6%
英文原文
Curious if anyone's portfolio is green after today's fun day. $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% Sk Hynix: -12.35% Samsung: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6%
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$XFAB获1.27亿欧元芯片法案资助，2028年投产。
今天，$XFAB（市值12.3亿美元）因其微机电系统(MEMS)晶圆代工厂获得了1.274亿欧元的《芯片法案》(CHIPS Act)资助。 “图林根州州长解释说，埃尔福特(Erfurt)的‘Fab4Micro’项目对于德国和欧洲的技术主权至关重要。” 计划于2028年开始生产 https://t.co/SSSa0EERLD
英文原文
Today, $XFAB (1.23B MC) receives €127.4 million from CHIPS ACT for their MEMS Foundry. "The «Fab4Micro» in Erfurt is a key project for the technological sovereignty of Germany and Europe, explained Thuringia’s head of government." The production start is planned in 2028 https://t.co/SSSa0EERLD
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博主认为半导体股回调是明确买入机会，质疑加息叙事。
就我个人而言，从 $MU、$INTC 到 $TSM 的回调看起来是一个明确的买入机会。因为我们在没有任何新的实质性宏观经济数据（周四公布）的情况下，因诸如三次加息之类的 BS 叙事出现了大幅下跌。如果机构真的相信卖方关于三次加息的观点
英文原文
Dip looks like a clear buying opportunity for me personally from $MU, $INTC, to $TSM. Since we got a massive drop off BS narratives like 3 rate hikes off no newly material macroeconomic data (which comes out Thursday). If institutions really believed 3 rate hike sellside
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博主批评彭博社错误将台积电和英伟达供应链比作泡沫。
彭博社在3月照搬美银针对韩综指的剧本，简直蠢透了。他们将台湾$TSM ~23.6倍远期市盈率(P/E)和$NVDA上游供应链描述为“泡沫”。接着用“债务”而非“利润率”一词，并将台湾市场与互联网泡沫(.com)相提并论。
英文原文
Nothing is more stupid than Bloomberg copying BofA playbook with KOSPI back in March. And framing Taiwan’s $TSM ~23.6x forward p/e and $NVDA upstream supply chain as a “bubble”. Then using the words going into “debt” instead of “margin” + comparing Taiwan’s market to the .com https://t.co/DPXpK4zhzq
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SIVE因机器人及物理AI合作预期看涨
$SIVE 和 Aeva 很可能因今天的新公关稿以及 SIVE 与苹果(Apple)的合作而上涨。 关于 Sivers 激光器赋能机器人/物理人工智能(Physical AI)： -> Sivers 激光器通过 LG Innotek 为波士顿动力(Boston Dynamics) Atlas 提供动力，用于机器人领域 -> 英伟达(Nvidia) Hyperion 生态系统结合 Sivers 激光器用于物理人工智能。 这些都是可能的路径 https://t.co/jUWU9dWO0n
英文原文
$SIVE + Aeva likely coded from the new PR today and SIVE + Apple. For Sivers lasers powering robotics / physical AI. -> Sivers lasers powering Boston Dynamics Atlas via. LG Innotek for robotics -> Nvidia Hyperion ecosystem w/ Sivers lasers for physical AI. Are possible paths https://t.co/jUWU9dWO0n
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XFAB获上调评级，但博主认为目标价严重低估其潜力。
$XFAB 被伯恩斯坦 (Bernstein) 上调至“跑赢大盘”，目标价从 5 欧元升至 12.8 欧元。好吧，鉴于之前在铠侠 (Kioxia) 和英特尔 (Intel) 上的表现，我原谅你了伯恩斯坦。但我仍然认为这仅仅是针对汽车复苏、碳化硅 (SiC)/功率半导体 (power semi) 产能爬坡的反应性目标价。如果市场计入 https://t.co/c8WgJ4jVRQ 的影响，该目标价严重低估了潜力……
英文原文
$XFAB upgraded to outperform with a PT of €12.8 by Bernstein, up from €5. Okay I forgive you Bernstein for Kioxia and Intel. I still think that’s just reactive PTs off automotive recovery, SiC/power semi ramp up. And undershooting potential a lot… If markets price in the https://t.co/c8WgJ4jVRQ
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嘲讽摩根大通看空预测，指出韩国市场因结构问题缺乏韧性。
没有什么比摩根大通(BoFA)给出荒谬的极端看空预测更让人无语的了。 这是今年第二次清算所有韩国杠杆交易者。 韩国市场建立在aespa、Salmon护肤以及SK海力士/SK三星存储芯片上时，其韧性显然较弱。
英文原文
There’s nothing like BoFA giving BS extreme bear predictions. To clear all the Korean leveraged traders a 2nd time this year. Korean markets are less resilient when it’s built on Aespa, Salmon skincare, and SK Hynix/Samsung memory names ig. https://t.co/84FpyHX0kC
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美银看空韩国指数致散户抛售，但指数随后翻倍创新高。
对散户而言，美银(Bank of America)看起来就像是伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)或吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramer)的恶意翻版。 - 称 $KOSPI / $EWY 是极端泡沫，将其与三月的白银崩盘相提并论，导致散户抛售头寸。 然而该指数随后收盘涨幅近翻倍，并创下历史新高(ATHs)。 https://t.co/FO1dLsht8b
英文原文
Bank of America looks like the malicious equivalent of Bernstein/Jim Cramer to retail. - said $KOSPI / $EWY was an extreme bubble, compared it to Silver crash back in March, causing retail to sell positions. The index proceeded to close to double and hit ATHs since that call. https://t.co/FO1dLsht8b
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NVDA导致EML瓶颈迫使架构转向，IMO光子学及CW激光器成关键瓶颈。
集成模块光学(IMO)光子学主题+连续波(CW)激光器瓶颈是顶级的。市场真的像有短期记忆丧失症，忘了$LITE从2024年到现在是如何从30亿美元涨到650多亿美元的。因为$NVDA导致了外延激光管芯(EML)瓶颈，并迫使架构改变。我们实际上正在看到同样的情况
英文原文
IMO photonics theme + CW laser chokepoint is goated. It's legit like markets have short term memory loss and forgot how $LITE went from $3B -> $65B+ from 2024 to now. Because $NVDA caused EML bottlenecks, and forced architectural changes. We're literally seeing the same
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回顾CXL内存池化概念股ALAB和MRVL过去4个月的大幅上涨。
做多CXL（Compute Express Link，计算快速链接）以实现内存池化的最佳时机是4个月前。 $ALAB 从 $117 涨至 $440，涨幅 276% $MRVL 从 $79 涨至 $309，涨幅 291% https://t.co/7XmXHyXgb1
英文原文
Best time to long CXL for memory pooling was 4 months ago. $ALAB up 276% from $117 -> $440 $MRVL up 291% from $79 -> $309 https://t.co/7XmXHyXgb1
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OE Solutions 估值低且IP稀缺，是理想的收购标的。
我认为 OE Solutions ($138080.KQ) 作为大型下游玩家收购目标最合理。鉴于其稀缺的 EML/CW 激光器 IP 目前市值仅约 2.15 亿美元，估值荒谬。Source Photonics 或苏州东山精密类型的收购可能会增加更多价值。
英文原文
I actually think OE Solutions ($138080.KQ ) makes the most sense as an acquisition target by a large downstream player. Since it’s now trading at a stupid ~$215M MC for scarce EML/CW laser IP. A Source Photonics / Suzhou Dongshan Precision type acquisition might add a lot more
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批评持有IREN导致错过AI及NBIS等板块行情
我好奇错过人工智能超级周期（AI Supercycle）的行情是什么感觉…… 伴随着光子学（Photonics）、存储（Memory）， 甚至像 $NBIS 这样的新云（Neoclouds）。 因为你正忙着死扛（Bagholding）那些看似无尽的 $60 亿活跃提款机（Active ATMs）$IREN。
英文原文
I wonder how it feels to miss out on the AI supercycle run… With photonics, memory, and even Neoclouds like $NBIS. Because you’re busy bagholding into the endless $6,000,000,000 active ATMs with $IREN. https://t.co/AFEr84Dezd
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博主反思三月未重仓TSEM，并指出GFS和INTC近期暴跌。
哇，$TSEM 今天大涨 10%+。 好时光，回想起来，三月份本应将其作为我的最大持仓之一。 像 $GFS 和 $INTC 这样的晶圆代工厂最近一直在暴跌。 https://t.co/m5KVJ8vOAS
英文原文
Wow, $TSEM up 10%+ today. Good times, should have made this one of my largest positions in hindsight back in March. Foundries like $GFS and $INTC have been going brrr lately. https://t.co/m5KVJ8vOAS
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SPCX市值暴跌，反向克拉默策略短期大幅跑赢指数。
哇，$SPCX 的市值现在已下跌超过 5830 亿美元…… 自从吉姆·克拉默 (Jim Cramer) 在 210 美元给出看多 (bullish) 建议以来。说实话，目睹这一切真是令人惊叹。 反向克拉默 (Inverse Cramer) 策略在 3 个交易日内回报约 21%，跑赢了你最大指数一整年的表现？ https://t.co/IhNtFAH99s
英文原文
Wow, $SPCX is now down over $583B in MC... Since Jim Cramer gave a bullish call at $210. Pretty amazing to witness tbh. Inverse Cramer would have returned ~21% in 3 trading days, outperforming a year in your largest indexes? https://t.co/IhNtFAH99s
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AAOI若达预期将现800%增长，看好其需求指数级上升。
这由你决定。 但只是抛砖引玉： 如果 $AAOI 达到预期，那将是超过 800% 的同比增长，年化营收 56 亿美元，对应 128 亿美元市值。 我猜测 4.71 亿美元/月的收入会随着需求在 2028 年前呈指数级增长而持续上升。 我预计
英文原文
That’s for you to decide. But just throwing this out there: If $AAOI hits projections, that’s over 800%+ Y/Y growth, and $5.6B revenue annualized off $12.8B MC. My guess is that the $471m/month will keep going up as demand seems to scale exponentially into 2028. I’d expect
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博主分享关于十大最快增长领域的发现。
刚刚发现关于增长最快的十大……的有趣内容。
英文原文
Just found this interesting around top 10 fastest …
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LPK 玻璃基板设备具垄断优势，预计量产爬坡后市值可达 30-50 亿。
关于 $LPK：如果让我猜，当它们全面量产爬坡时，市值达到 30 亿至 50 亿美元似乎是合理的。 对我来说，这感觉更具非对称性，因为这只是一个等待游戏，而且它们已经拥有玻璃基板的客户。 小型设备供应商的瓶颈通常受限于总可寻址市场 (TAM)，除非你是 ASML 或像 KLAC 那样拥有多个瓶颈，否则很难达到 200 亿美元以上。 在全面量产爬坡前夕，很少有像这样占主导地位的“垄断者”： 也许你有类似： - Aixtron (MOCVD) ~80 亿美元 - Towa (压缩键合) ~20 亿美元 - Techwing (内存处理器/立方探针) ~15 亿美元 - MSScorps (CPO 检测)，但处于量产前阶段。8.5 亿美元 - Riber (量子分子束外延)，非常早期的量产前阶段 ~3.5 亿美元 然后是 LPK 激光用于玻璃核心基板（即将量产），市值约 7.3 亿美元，从主题上讲应该比内存享有更多溢价。（例如，主要先进封装转变，CPO 相关等）。 我知道很多晦涩的化学垄断者，但由于其物料清单 (BOM) 远低于设备，因此没有受到太多关注。 但对于 LPK 你有： 例如：“全球主要玩家中 80% 的客户选择了 LPKF 设备”。 在玻璃核心量产中，LIDE 市场份额目标为 70%，应该非常重要。（披露：持有，上述列出的名称中除了 Techwing/Aixtron 外，NFI）。 这只是如果你跟随 $AEHR 在约 35 亿美元时的路径： - <5 亿美元：“哦，他们没有客户！” --->（可能在这里的中间某处）。 - <15 亿美元：“也许很快就会有量！” - 30 亿美元及以上：“看起来他们开始全面量产爬坡了。” 这只是我个人经验中关于瓶颈设备供应商周期的一课。
英文原文
As for $LPK: Maybe $3B-$5B seems reasonable when they fully volume ramp if I had to guess. Feels more asymmetrical to me personally since it's just a waiting game and they have the customers for glass substrates. Small machine supplier chokepoints usually cap out from TAM though and don't go to $20B+ unless you're ASML or hold many chokepoints like KLAC. Not many dominant "monopolies" like these out there right before volume ramp this small: Maybe you have stuff like: - Aixtron (MOCVD) ~$8B - Towa (compression bonding) ~$2B - Techwing (memory handler/cube probes) ~$1.5B - MSScorps (CPO inspection), but pre-ramp. $850M - Riber (quantum MBE), very pre-ramp ~$350M Then LPK Laser for glass core substrates (about to ramp) at ~$730M, which thematically should have more premiums than memory. (eg. major advanced packaging shift, CPO adjacent, etc). Lot of obscure chemical monopolies I know of, but those don't get as much attention cause BOM is much lower than equipment. But for lpk you have: eg. “80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment”. 70% of LIDE market share target for TGV in the glass-core ramp, should be very material. (disclosure: own, the listed names above aside from techwing/aixtron, NFI). Just kinda the path they go if you follow $AEHR at ~$3.5B now: - <$500m: "Oh they have no customers!" ---> (probably somewhere in the middle here). - < $1.5B: "Maybe volume comes soon!" - $3B+ onward: "Looks like they're starting to volume ramp. Just a lesson for the cycle of the chokepoint machine suppliers from my personal experiences.
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博主调侃日本队将大胜瑞典，讽刺瑞典媒体对SIVE的态度。
我预计日本队明天将在世界杯上碾压瑞典队。大概又是4-0，毕竟日本足球运动员看到了瑞典媒体是如何对待 $SIVE 的。
英文原文
I expect Japan to mog Sweden in the World Cup tomorrow. Probably another 4-0 after Japan's soccer players saw how Swedish media treated $SIVE.
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WUS TW 连续涨停，因持有巨额未估值资产且受激进投资者施压，潜力巨大。
哇，WUS TW 连续三个涨停。很遗憾我没有加大仓位。WUS TW 是我 1 个 NAV 套利 + 独立增长交易。如果需要背景：WUS TW 是一家市值约 11.2 亿美元的 PCB 玩家，拥有 AI 数据中心增长。他们持有的 WUS Kunshan 股权价值 47.9 亿美元（占 420.4 亿的 11.4%）。所以基本上他们是一家独立增长的 11 亿美元 PCB 公司，持有另一家看起来即将在港股 IPO 的公司约 47.9 亿美元的股权。而且，Palliser（与 Ajinomoto 和 Toto 一起）的成功激进投资者正在施压他们削减部分持仓。这似乎是一个相当疯狂的脱节，我认为这里有很大的潜力。
英文原文
Wow, 3 limit ups in a row with WUS TW. Pretty sad I didn't take larger positions. WUS TW is 1 my 2 NAV arbitrage + independent growth trades. If you want context: WUS TW is a ~$1.12B PCB player with AI DC growth. Their stake in WUS Kunshan is $4.79B (11.4% of 42.04 billion) So basically they're a $1.1B PCB player growing independently, sitting on ~$4.79B worth of another company that looks to IPOed on Hong Kong markets soon. And a successful activist investor in Palliser (with Ajinomoto and Toto), is pressuring them to trim some holdings along with a few others. Seems like a pretty insane disconnect, and I think there's a lot of potential here.
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博主调侃日本股市普涨，戏称因世界杯大胜所致。
天哪，日本市场看起来很开心。古河电气、东和、哈默纳科、伊比登今天都涨了。大概是因为世界杯赢了4-0？
英文原文
Jeez, Japanese markets seem happy. Everything from Furukawa, Towa, Harmonic Drive, Ibiden, are up today. Probably after winning the World Cup game 4-0?
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澄清误解，论证SIVE在CPO及可插拔光模块中的核心地位，强烈看多。
这是一个误解： $SIVE 是下一代架构的激光器供应商，不仅仅局限于共封装光学(CPO)的规模扩展(scale up)。 可插拔(Pluggable)、规模扩展(scale out) CPO、规模扩展(scale up) CPO、近封装光学(NPO)等。 - Sivers 和 $JBL 开启了“神模式”，开发了采用连续波(CW)激光器的 1.6T 光模块。 有效地绕过了电吸收调制激光器(EML)的瓶颈，甚至提高了能效。 根据捷普(Jabil)管理层的说法，他们建立了“相对显著的护城河”。 因此，对于下一代 1.6T 可插拔光模块，Sivers 似乎立即被采用。 市场也错过了这一细微差别：在捷普宣布后，其他可插拔厂商也主动联系，SIVE 现在正与他们合作（可能处于联合开发、资格认证阶段）。 像 Lumentum 这样垂直整合的光模块厂商并不多（想想中际旭创/新易盛，可能还有其他）。 所以这些是正在进行的开发，只是尚未公开披露，随时可能发布新的新闻稿。 - 对于 2026 年下半年开始的 CPO 规模扩展(scale out)，如 $POET，$SIVE 是这些厂商的激光器供应商。 - 规模扩展(scale up) CPO 将在 2027 年下半年到来，来自 Ayar 和英伟达(Nvidia)的 NVLink CPO 生态系统，这是光模块厂商的主要放量阶段。 但在这里，$SIVE 看起来在供应链映射中碾压其他所有玩家。 因为他们很可能早在规模尚小时就与 $MRVL Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence 等合作并完成了设计导入。 除此之外还有： 对于像 $GFS 这样的晶圆代工厂，$SIVE 是参考激光器。 甚至不包括像 O-Net 这样与 $SIVE 合作构建 ELS 的大公司，可能用于亚洲超大规模数据中心的供应链。 这就是为什么 $SIVE 是我目前最看好的激光器瓶颈长持标的。 感觉从 2027 年初开始，他们在新的光学架构中无处不在。
英文原文
That’s a misconception: $SIVE is the laser supplier for next gen architectures, not just CPO scale up. Pluggable, scale out CPO, scale up CPO, NPO, etc. - Sivers and $JBL went god-mode and developed 1.6T optical transceivers with CW lasers. Effectively designing around the EML bottlenecks, and even made things more power efficient. From quotes from Jabil management they created a “relatively dramatic moat”. So for the next gen of 1.6T pluggable transceivers, Sivers seems immediately used. Markets missed this nuance too: after Jabil’s announcement, other pluggable players reached out, and SIVE is working with them now (prob codevelopment, qualification stage). There’s not too many players that build optical transceivers that aren’t vertically integrated like Lumentum (think: Innolight/eoptolink, and maybe others). So these are active developments, just not public material yet and could be a new press release anytime. - for CPO scale out which happens H2 2026 onward like $POET , $SIVE is a laser supplier for those players. - scale up CPO is h2 2027, from Ayar and Nvidia’a NVLink CPO ecosystem and that’s the main volume ramp across optical players. But this is where $SIVE looks like they mog every other player from supply chain mapping. Since they’ve likely been working + designed in with $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence and the others since they were small way back when. On top of things like this: For foundries like $GFS , $SIVE is the reference laser. Not even including massive companies like O-Net building ELS with $SIVE, likely for the Asian hyperscalers supply chains. This is why $SIVE is by far my favorite laser chokepoint long. Feels like they’re everywhere in new optical architectures starting beginning of 2027.
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OE Solutions是韩国自主光子学玩家，风险高于SIVE，Q3-Q4或更有趣。
最近我收到了很多关于 OE Solutions (138080) 的询问。 以下是我目前的研究/想法： 这是一家小型韩国光收发器公司，类似于 $AAOI。 他们已成为全球少数 EML（电吸收调制激光器）玩家之一（例如 $COHR、$LITE、三菱、Source、住友），拥有稀缺的用于 800G/1.6T 的 100G EML 激光器产能。 OE 似乎正试图制造完整的光收发器，而不仅仅是 EML。他们还有成品 ELSFP CPO（共封装光学）产品，采用 UHP CW（连续波）激光器，预计 Q3 开始送样。 同样，OE 似乎也在构建完整的 ELSFP，而不是仅出售 CW 激光器裸片，从而获取更多市场份额。 所以你可以将其视为韩国版 AAOI，但主打 EML 而非 CW，且产能/资质较少。正在追赶世界其他玩家。 然而就时间线而言： 1. 23dBm 冷却 ELSFP 样品于 2026 年 Q3 开始 2. 800G 的销售基础，以及 2027 年 1.6T “全力”推进 3. 2027 年下半年至 2028 年上半年，其 ELSFP 可能进入量产。 而且他们似乎正在研发 200G EML 能力，其 2025 年投资者简报中提到的“100GBaud EML / 200G PAM”似乎很有前景，鉴于其 IP/演示。 ELS 刚刚发布，Q3 开始送样。800G/1.6T 光收发器也可能在 2027 年。 所以这基本上是韩国的自主光子学玩家，正在追赶 $LITE、$AAOI 和更大的玩家。 （披露：我持有 OE Solutions (138080) 头寸。这是出于信息目的的基本面研究，非财务建议）。 关于 OE 的估值： 1. 这些增长领域似乎还没有确认的客户。 2. 可能没多少人理解他们在构建什么。 3. 良率数据相当不确定 1. 客户：我们实际上正处于严重的 EML/CW 激光器短缺中，因此任何独立产能都会备受追捧。我个人认为他们在这里不会很难找到客户。我假设他们生产的任何东西都可能被买断，并会得到韩国的额外支持。 2. 机构支持：可能不多，因为其市值+韩国上市不符合许多美国机构的门槛。我也不认为很多人理解他们在构建什么。 3. 良率/产能：OE 披露的晶圆/模块利用率低（我记得大约是 31% 未充分利用），所以在需要资本支出之前，他们有足够的材料收入可以产生。 我也不确定 EML/CW 和其他良率。可能需要去问公司。 这是家随机垃圾公司吗？不。它从事光收发器业务已超过 20 年，在美国和荷兰有研发。 但他们整个 AI 增长领域似乎明年才会发生，主要取决于产能/良率。 我个人认为 EML/CW 技术如果作为收购目标，可能比当前市值值钱得多。 特别是对于想要垂直整合 EML 用于可插拔模块和 CW 激光器用于 CPO 的大玩家。 市场可能在等待 Q3 送样后更多关于资质的确定性，或盈利预测公告。 想法 TLDR： 我的一些朋友去年讨论过，可能太早了。两个月前看到它有很多评论，仍然太早。 我认为现在仍然太早，但 Q3-Q4 后期可能更有趣。我个人认为它比主要 CPO 玩家如 $SIVE 风险大得多，后者已嵌入 Ayar、$JBL、$GFS 和许多其他超大规模供应商。也有 Win Semi 等降低量产风险。 因为 OE Solutions 看起来像是一个新玩家，试图为光收发器构建一个 $AAOI，但拥有自主 EML 和 CW 激光器生产用于 CPO 产品。 关于客户+量产爬坡有很多未解问题，存在重大风险。 但如果你相信韩国能构建出 800G/1.6T 光收发器 EML 供应链和带 CW 激光器的 ELSFP。 通过 OE Solutions，可能值得看一眼。仍在研究该公司，只是初步想法。
英文原文
I've been getting a lot of questions about OE Solutions (138080) recently. Here's my research/thoughts so far on it: They're a small Korean optical transceiver company, similar to $AAOI . And they've become one the few EML players in the world (eg. $COHR , $LITE , Mitsubishi, Source, Sumitomo), with scarce 100G EML laser capacity for 800G/1.6T. OE appears to be trying to make the full transceiver, not just the EML. They also have finished ELSFP CPO products, with UHP CW lasers, which is sampling Q3. Likewise, OE also seems to be building out the full ELSFP, rather than selling CW laser dies, so that's more market share. So you can think of it as Korean AAOI but EML instead of CW, and less capacity/qualifications. And playing catch-up to the rest of the world. However in terms of timelines: 1. 23dBm cooled ELSFP samples start in Q3 2026 2. Sales base for 800G, and 2027 1.6T "full force" 3. Late H2 2027, H1 2028 onward probably their ELSFP enters the volume production. And it seems they're working on 200G EML capability from their investor snipper 2025 OE IR snippet referenced “100GBaud EML / 200G PAM". This seems promising given their IP/demos. ELS has just been unveiled recently, sampling starts Q3. 800G/1.6T Optical transceivers are also likely 2027. So this is basically Korea's sovereign photonics player, playing catchup to $LITE , $AAOI , and the bigger players. (Disclosure: I have positions in OE Solutions (138080). This is fundamental research for informational purposes, not financial advice). As for OE solution valuations: 1. Doesn't seem like there's confirmed customers yet for these growth verticals. 2. Probably not many people understood what they're building toward yet. 3. Yields data kinda uncertain 1. Customers: We're actually in a major EML/CW laser shortage, so any independent capacity will be sought after. I personally don't think they'll have a hard time finding customers here. I would assume anything they make might get bought out and would get extra support from Korea. 2. Institutional support: Probably not much since it doesn't meet threshold for many US institution given MC size + KR listing. I also don't think many people understood what they're building yet. 3. Yields/Capacity: OE's disclosed wafer/module utilization is low (i remember was around 31% underutilized off the top of my head), so there's enough material revenue they can generate before they need to spend on capex. I'm also not sure about EML/CW and other yields. Probably need to go ask the company. Is this some random crap co? No. It's been doing optical transceivers stuff for more than 20Y, has R&D in the U.S. and Netherlands. But their entire AI growth vertical seems to happen next year, and hinges mainly around capacity/yields. And I personally think the EML/CW tech is probably worth a lot more than their current MC, if it were an acquisition target. Especially from a larger player that wanted to vertically integrate EML for pluggables and CW lasers for CPO. Markets are probably waiting on more certainty around qualifications after Q3 sampling or earnings projections announcements. TLDR on thoughts: Some of my friends discussed this last year, was probably way too early. Saw it got many comments 2 months ago, still too early. I still think now is early, but later in Q3-Q4 might be more interesting. I personally think it's a lot higher risk than a major CPO player like $SIVE, that's embedded in Ayar, $JBL , $GFS , and many other hyperscaler suppliers. Which also has Win Semi and others de-risking volume ramp. As OE Solutions looks like a new player trying to build out an $AAOI for the optical transceivers but sovereign EML and CW laser production for CPO products. And there's a lot of answered questions around customers + volume ramp, which presents material risk. But if you believe Korea can build out an 800G/1.6T transceiver EML supply chain and ELSFP with CW lasers. With OE Solutions, it might be worth taking a look into. Still researching the company tho, just initial thoughts.
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调侃健身人群造成乳清蛋白瓶颈及涨价，类比科技供应链。
显然，健身爱好者成了新的超大规模云服务商。他们因乳清蛋白制造了新瓶颈？现在出现了 $SNDK 式的价格上涨。也许肌酸接下来也会短缺。
英文原文
Apparently gym bros are the new hyperscalers. They’ve created a new bottleneck with whey protein? Now there’s $SNDK style price hikes. Maybe creatine is next with shortages.