· 个股论点

英伟达财报超预期,指引强劲,AI需求无放缓迹象,超额收益转向供应链。

涉及标的:

相关概念: ASIC 专用集成电路CPO 共封装光学

中文翻译

$NVDA 财报要点(TLDR): 营收:962.2亿美元 vs. 约921.7亿美元(超预期) 调整后每股收益(Adj. EPS):2.22美元 vs. 2.09-2.10美元(超预期) 数据中心(DC):890亿美元 vs. 约863亿美元(超预期) 调整后毛利率:75% vs. 75% 超大规模客户(Hyperscaler)营收:487.1亿美元,上季度为430.5亿美元(定制ASIC的增长并未真正阻止该营收加速) 关于指引: 营收:1080亿美元 vs. 约1042亿美元 调整后毛利率:74% vs. 75%(这几乎是唯一的疲软点) 过去4个季度的营收增长确实令人难以置信。 -> 681亿美元 -> 816亿美元 -> 962亿美元(当前) -> 下季度指引:1080亿美元,尽管假设中国数据中心计算营收为零。 有趣的是,英伟达表示其承诺从上一季度的1190亿美元跳升至2790亿美元,主要与未来几年的内存采购有关。所以内存需求会持续飙升。 要点:AI热潮持续不断。英伟达显然处于领先地位,且没有明显的需求放缓迹象。 鉴于英伟达已是5万亿美元+市值的公司,我认为现在的超额收益(alpha)主要来自英伟达的架构/容量决策如何影响供应链的其他环节(例如共封装光学(CPO)、内存、800V电源)。 而不是简单地寻找英伟达自身的定价错误。 无论如何,所有有趣的事情将在几分钟后的财报电话会议中发生。

英文原文

$NVDA earnings TLDR: Revenue: $96.22B vs. ~$92.17B (beat) Adj. EPS: $2.22 vs. $2.09-$2.10 (beat) DC: $89.0B vs. ~$86.3B (beat) Adj. gross margin: 75% vs. 75% Hyperscaler Revenue: $48.71B from $43.05B last quarter (custom ASIC growth hasn't really prevented this revenue from accelerating) For guidance: Revenue: $108B vs. ~$104.2B Adj. gross margin: 74% vs. 75% (kinda the only soft spot) Revenue ramp has been genuinely absurd over last 4 quarters. -> $68.1B -> $81.6B -> $96.2B (we are here) -> next quarter guidance: $108B, despite assuming zero China DC compute revenue. Fun thing to note is Nvidia says its commitments jumped from $119B last quarter to $279B, primarily related to procurement of memory (for next few years).. So memory goes brrr. TLDR: AI keeps on going brrr. Nvidia is clearly leading the charge and no obvious signs of demand slowing. Given Nvidia is already a $5T+ company, I think most of the alpha comes from how Nvidia's architecture/capacity decisions impact elsewhere in the supply chain (eg. CPO, memory, 800V) nowadays. Rather than simply finding mispricing in Nvidia itself. Regardless, all the fun stuff happens in the earnings call in a few min.

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