北京时间 2026-08-27 09:42:25 · 个股论点

博主看好ESMT(3006)，认为其受益于DDR2/3产能瓶颈及盈利激增。

涉及标的： $3006 $SNDK

中文翻译

我想布局DDR2/DDR3瓶颈持续带来的机会，于是找到了ESMT (3006)。这是一家市值25亿美元的无晶圆厂(fabless)公司，拥有力积电(PSMC)的晶圆配额（尤其专注于DDR2）。上月（7月）净利润为1.095亿美元，年化净利润为13.1亿美元（滚动市盈率1.9倍）。如果我们回顾追踪传统DRAM价格涨幅期间的月度净利润： 2026年1月：约1600万美元（估算） 2026年2月：约1700万美元 2026年3月：约3100万美元（估算） 2026年4月：约5800万美元 2026年5月：约6000万美元（估算） 2026年6月：约6700万美元（估算） 2026年7月：约1.1亿美元（估算月份是根据报告的季度总额推断的。7月为公司报告数据）这种盈利进程让我想起$SNDK式的涨价+盈利拐点（特别是本月发布的报告）。我预计DDR2/DDR3产能将在2027年全年保持紧张（随着华邦电子等传统玩家退出某些产线如DDR2）。这并不完全是像其他同行那样的库存清算。当然低成本库存有帮助，但主要驱动力似乎是晶圆成本/供应与传统DRAM平均售价(ASP)之间利差的扩大？他们的资产负债表也非常稳健： - 手头现金：约3.959亿美元净现金 - 2.496亿美元库存，1.463亿美元应收账款而且净利润的增长……是在预期Q3进一步传统DRAM涨价之前。 *披露持有仓位，非财务建议(NFA) 在没有太多评论的情况下早期介入总是有点令人畏惧。想知道是否有人能压力测试这个论点？毕竟一家今年仅从1600万美元增长到1亿美元月度净利润的公司（7月年化市盈率1.9倍）。并且受益于本季度预计的另一波DDR2/DDR3涨价……据Trendforce称DDR2产线可能上涨35-40%，DDR3可能继续上涨。市场只是不知道这个瓶颈/公司，还是我的研究漏掉了什么？

英文原文

I wanted exposure to DDR2/DDR3 bottleneck ongoing and found ESMT (3006). A $2.5B MC fabless company with PSMC wafer allocation (esp. focused on DDR2). Last month's net income was: $109.5M (July month), which annualized is $1.31B net profit (1.9x runrate P/E). If we look at net profit throughout the months tracking legacy DRAM price hikes: Jan 2026: ~$16M (est) Feb 2026: ~$17M Mar 2026: ~$31M (est) April 2026: ~$58M May 2026: ~$60M (est) June 2026: ~$67M (est) Jul 2026: ~$110M (Estimated months are inferred from reported quarterly totals. July is company reported) This earnings progression reminds me of $SNDK style price hikes + earnings inflection (esp. the report released this month). And I do expect DDR2/DDR3 capacity to remain constrained throughout 2027 (with legacy players like Winbond withdrawing from certain lines too like DDR2). It's not quite all inventory liquidation like the other peers. Sure lower cost inventory helped, but the primary driver seems to be the widening spread between wafer costs/supply and legacy dram ASPs? Their balance sheet is extremely solid as well: - Cash on hand: ~$395.9M net cash - $249.6M inventory, $146.3M receivables And the net income progression... is before further legacy DRAM hikes expected in Q3. *disclosure own positions, NFA It's always a bit daunting being early without much commentary around the idea. Wondering if anyone can stress test this thesis? Since a company that grew monthly net income from $16M -> $100m this year alone (July Annualized would be 1.9x P/E). And benefits from another projected wave of DDR2/DDR3 hikes this quarter... maybe like 35-40% for DDR2 lines per Trendforce, and DDR3 likely continuing to rise. Do markets just not know about this bottleneck/company or am I missing something from my research?

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