$3006
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ESMT估值极低且库存受益涨价，看好传统存储短缺持续至2027年。
ESMT (3006) 基于7月年化收益的市盈率(P/E)仅为1.9倍。最新净收入为：7月净收入1.09亿美元，年化约13亿美元。拥有约3.959亿美元净现金和2.496亿美元库存。市值减去净现金和库存后，相当于约17个月的7月收益。随着存储价格上涨，库存变现将受益。其他分析师笔记显示，上季度平均售价(ASP)环比预期上涨105-113%。DDR2/DDR3、NOR Flash、SLC NAND价格预计下半年持续上涨。主要问题是持续时间，我个人认为传统DRAM/NAND短缺将在2027年持续收紧。其他人可能不同意。其他分析师如华南证券认为，联华电子(PSMC)晶圆涨价主要是成本传导（下半年将见分晓）。大多数人认为2028年远期市盈率约20倍的公司具有吸引力……但1.9倍的当前运行市盈率在我看来似乎是个异常值。这是我对该公司/传统存储主题的看法，至于是否被低估，我将交由他人/市场决定。
英文原文
ESMT (3006) is 1.9x P/E ratio off July's earnings annualized. Latest net income was: $109M net income/July, which is ~$1.3B annualized. With ~$395.9M net cash and with $249.6M in inventory. The market cap less net cash and inventory is equivalent to: ~17 months of July earnings. Where monetizing that inventory benefits from rising memory prices. Their ASP hike expectations were +105–113% Q/Q last quarter from other analyst notes. DDR2/DDR3, NOR Flash, SLC NAND, prices are expected to keep rising H2. The main question is duration, but I personally think legacy DRAM/NAND shortages tightens throughout 2027. Others might disagree. Other analysts like Huanan argue that PSMC wafer hikes are largely pass through (we'll find out H2). Most people are finding companies with ~20 forward P/E ending 2028 to be attractive... But 1.9x current runrate P/E seems like an anomaly to me personally. That's my take on the company/legacy memory theme, I'll let others/markets decide if that's undervalued.
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博主看好ESMT(3006)，认为其受益于DDR2/3产能瓶颈及盈利激增。
我想布局DDR2/DDR3瓶颈持续带来的机会，于是找到了ESMT (3006)。 这是一家市值25亿美元的无晶圆厂(fabless)公司，拥有力积电(PSMC)的晶圆配额（尤其专注于DDR2）。 上月（7月）净利润为1.095亿美元，年化净利润为13.1亿美元（滚动市盈率1.9倍）。 如果我们回顾追踪传统DRAM价格涨幅期间的月度净利润： 2026年1月：约1600万美元（估算） 2026年2月：约1700万美元 2026年3月：约3100万美元（估算） 2026年4月：约5800万美元 2026年5月：约6000万美元（估算） 2026年6月：约6700万美元（估算） 2026年7月：约1.1亿美元 （估算月份是根据报告的季度总额推断的。7月为公司报告数据） 这种盈利进程让我想起$SNDK式的涨价+盈利拐点（特别是本月发布的报告）。 我预计DDR2/DDR3产能将在2027年全年保持紧张（随着华邦电子等传统玩家退出某些产线如DDR2）。 这并不完全是像其他同行那样的库存清算。当然低成本库存有帮助，但主要驱动力似乎是晶圆成本/供应与传统DRAM平均售价(ASP)之间利差的扩大？ 他们的资产负债表也非常稳健： - 手头现金：约3.959亿美元净现金 - 2.496亿美元库存，1.463亿美元应收账款 而且净利润的增长……是在预期Q3进一步传统DRAM涨价之前。 *披露持有仓位，非财务建议(NFA) 在没有太多评论的情况下早期介入总是有点令人畏惧。想知道是否有人能压力测试这个论点？ 毕竟一家今年仅从1600万美元增长到1亿美元月度净利润的公司（7月年化市盈率1.9倍）。 并且受益于本季度预计的另一波DDR2/DDR3涨价……据Trendforce称DDR2产线可能上涨35-40%，DDR3可能继续上涨。 市场只是不知道这个瓶颈/公司，还是我的研究漏掉了什么？
英文原文
I wanted exposure to DDR2/DDR3 bottleneck ongoing and found ESMT (3006). A $2.5B MC fabless company with PSMC wafer allocation (esp. focused on DDR2). Last month's net income was: $109.5M (July month), which annualized is $1.31B net profit (1.9x runrate P/E). If we look at net profit throughout the months tracking legacy DRAM price hikes: Jan 2026: ~$16M (est) Feb 2026: ~$17M Mar 2026: ~$31M (est) April 2026: ~$58M May 2026: ~$60M (est) June 2026: ~$67M (est) Jul 2026: ~$110M (Estimated months are inferred from reported quarterly totals. July is company reported) This earnings progression reminds me of $SNDK style price hikes + earnings inflection (esp. the report released this month). And I do expect DDR2/DDR3 capacity to remain constrained throughout 2027 (with legacy players like Winbond withdrawing from certain lines too like DDR2). It's not quite all inventory liquidation like the other peers. Sure lower cost inventory helped, but the primary driver seems to be the widening spread between wafer costs/supply and legacy dram ASPs? Their balance sheet is extremely solid as well: - Cash on hand: ~$395.9M net cash - $249.6M inventory, $146.3M receivables And the net income progression... is before further legacy DRAM hikes expected in Q3. *disclosure own positions, NFA It's always a bit daunting being early without much commentary around the idea. Wondering if anyone can stress test this thesis? Since a company that grew monthly net income from $16M -> $100m this year alone (July Annualized would be 1.9x P/E). And benefits from another projected wave of DDR2/DDR3 hikes this quarter... maybe like 35-40% for DDR2 lines per Trendforce, and DDR3 likely continuing to rise. Do markets just not know about this bottleneck/company or am I missing something from my research?