· 个股论点
ESMT (3006) 基于7月年化收益的市盈率(P/E)仅为1.9倍。最新净收入为：7月净收入1.09亿美元，年化约13亿美元。拥有约3.959亿美元净现金和2.496亿美元库存。市值减去净现金和库存后，相当于约17个月的7月收益。随着存储价格上涨，库存变现将受益。其他分析师笔记显示，上季度平均售价(ASP)环比预期上涨105-113%。DDR2/DDR3、NOR Flash、SLC NAND价格预计下半年持续上涨。主要问题是持续时间，我个人认为传统DRAM/NAND短缺将在2027年持续收紧。其他人可能不同意。其他分析师如华南证券认为，联华电子(PSMC)晶圆涨价主要是成本传导（下半年将见分晓）。大多数人认为2028年远期市盈率约20倍的公司具有吸引力……但1.9倍的当前运行市盈率在我看来似乎是个异常值。这是我对该公司/传统存储主题的看法，至于是否被低估，我将交由他人/市场决定。
ESMT (3006) is 1.9x P/E ratio off July's earnings annualized. Latest net income was: $109M net income/July, which is ~$1.3B annualized. With ~$395.9M net cash and with $249.6M in inventory. The market cap less net cash and inventory is equivalent to: ~17 months of July earnings. Where monetizing that inventory benefits from rising memory prices. Their ASP hike expectations were +105–113% Q/Q last quarter from other analyst notes. DDR2/DDR3, NOR Flash, SLC NAND, prices are expected to keep rising H2. The main question is duration, but I personally think legacy DRAM/NAND shortages tightens throughout 2027. Others might disagree. Other analysts like Huanan argue that PSMC wafer hikes are largely pass through (we'll find out H2). Most people are finding companies with ~20 forward P/E ending 2028 to be attractive... But 1.9x current runrate P/E seems like an anomaly to me personally. That's my take on the company/legacy memory theme, I'll let others/markets decide if that's undervalued.