供应链分析
产业链结构、上下游与瓶颈环节研究 · 共 1122 条 · 第 18 / 23 页
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光子学建设规模惊人，上游前驱体材料或成瓶颈。
@PhotonCap 绝对没错，当你将光子学(CPO)的建设与$ LITE等公司的预期增长进行映射时，人们就能直观地看到其规模有多么惊人。 但他们忽略了使这一切成为可能的上游前驱体材料，这也是我预计它将成为主要瓶颈的原因。
英文原文
@PhotonCap Absolutely, when you map the photonics buildout and projected growth with $LITE and others, people can just see how staggering it is. But they miss upstream precursors that make it all happen, which is why I’m expecting it to be a major bottleneck.
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7N铟价创新高，AI需求致上游供应瓶颈显现，涨价在即。
7N铟价格在SMM上刚刚创下历史新高，且毫无放缓迹象。 $AXTI 的瓶颈正在实时上演。 西方超大规模云服务商似乎正在吸收用于AI建设的几乎所有磷化铟(InP)衬底和前驱体供应。 就像 $SNDK 和 $MU 一样，对于像AXT这样的上游供应商来说，这只是一场等待涨价（类似NAND）的博弈。 供应冲击似乎不可避免。
英文原文
7N Indium prices have just hit ATHs on SMM with zero signs of slowing down. The $AXTI bottleneck is playing out real time. Western hyperscalers appear to be soaking up every bit of the InP substrates + precursors supply for the AI buildout. Like $SNDK and $MU, it's just a waiting game for the upstream suppliers like AXT to increase prices (like NAND). The supply shock feels inevitable.
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SanDisk聚焦AI致传统存储真空，群联与美光科有望填补。
我持有的、在 $SNDK 财报后有趣的受益者： 群联电子 (TPE: 8299) 和 美光科 (TPE: 2337)。 类似于南亚科 (1年涨幅 1,035.96%) 填补了 $MU、SK 海力士和三星留下的传统 DRAM 空白： 群联电子在闪存 (库存) 方面对 SanDisk 做同样的事。美光科则通过 MLC NAND (拥有晶圆厂) 填补空白。 所以这是另一个“传统空白”策略。 随着 $SNDK 将其 NAND 晶圆转向企业级 SSD 以聚焦 AI，群联/美光科看起来要填补这一真空。 特别是当 SK 海力士和三星停止生产 MLC NAND 以聚焦 HBM 时，这两家公司将成为传统存储领域的“最后幸存者”。 群联电子恰好拥有 2024/2025 年大量低成本 NAND 库存。 美光科正在增加 MLC NAND 产量以填补三星/SanDisk 转型留下的空白。 所以对于 SanDisk 留下的“南亚科 2.0”： 群联 = 巨大库存的价格套利 美光科 = MLC NAND
英文原文
Interesting beneficiaries post $SNDK earnings that I own: Phison (TPE: 8299) and Macronix (TPE: 2337). Similar to Nayna (1,035.96% 1Y) that filled legacy dram void from $MU, Sk Hynix, and Samsung: Phison does the same with Sandisk with flash (inventory). And Macronix with MLC NAND (owns wafer fabs). So another "legacy void" play. As $SNDK pivots their NAND wafers toward enterprise SSDs to focus on AI, Phison/Macronix looks to fill the vacuum. Esp. when Sk Hynix and Samsung stop making MLC NAND to focus on HBM, the "Last Man Standing" for legacy storage would be those two. Phison happens to be sitting on a massive stockpile of lower-cost NAND from 2024/2025. And Macronix are upping their MLC NAND production to fill the void from the Samsung/SanDisk pivot. So for Nanya v2 left by Sandisk: Phison = Massive stockpile price abritrage Macronix = MLC NAND
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作者认为当前属低风险博弈，预期铜-金刚石或AlSiC混合方案，但可能过早。
@PhotonCap 没问题！这对我来说只是那种风险较低、但一旦奏效就大赚的博弈类型之一。 我原本预期会看到一些铜-金刚石或铝硅碳化物(AlSiC)的混合方案，但也许我有点太早了。
英文原文
@PhotonCap No problem! This is just one of those lower risk but if it works it works type plays for me. I would expect to see some copper-diamond or AlSiC mix but maybe I’m a bit early
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市场需计入风险，某公司疑似有Figure等人形机器人客户。
@ShortsHoward 这就是市场需要计入的风险。没有任何保证。不过他们确实有多个人形机器人客户，另一个据推测是 Figure。不过我也不完全确定。
英文原文
@ShortsHoward That’s the risk markets need to price in. No assurance there They do have multiple humanoid customers though, the other is assumed to be Figure. Not completely sure though
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马斯克宣布转产Optimus，$VPG作为核心供应链标的，潜在营收规模巨大。
马斯克在$TSLA财报电话会议中表示：“我们将用一条年产能高达100万台Optimus机器人的生产线，取代弗里蒙特工厂的Model S和Model X生产线。” 针对$VPG（市值5.89亿美元）做一些粗略估算： 100万台 * 850美元中位数（CEO在财报中引用的每台机器人500-1200美元区间）= 短期年营收8.5亿美元。 如果按马斯克1000万台的目标推算，年营收可达85亿美元…… 毛利率在50%到55%之间。 对于这样一家小公司来说，数据相当有趣。
英文原文
Elon Musk from $TSLA earnings: "We are replacing the Model S and Model X production line in Fremont with a line capable of producing up to 1 million Optimus units per year" Just some napkin math on $VPG (a $589M company): 1M * $850 midpoint ($500-$1.2k per robot quoted by CEO from ER) = $850m revenue/year near term. If you scale that to Elon's 10m target, $8.5B revenue/year... Off 50% to 55% gross margins. Pretty interesting figures for such a small company.
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推荐南亚科、华邦等亚洲存储股作为AI存储巨头替代标的。
其他一些亚洲存储多头思路，如南亚科（如果你不想投 $MU、三星、SK 海力士这类巨头）： - 华邦电子（DRAM/Flash）1年涨幅847% - Macronix（ROM/NOR Flash）1年涨幅389% - 群联电子（Kioxia $SNDK 的SSD控制器）1年涨幅383% 其他有趣的还有东京电子，作为NAND/DRAM设备商，是间接受益者。
英文原文
Some other Asia memory long ideas like Nanya (if you don’t want $MU, Samsung, SK Hynix types) - Winbond (dram/flash) up 847% 1Y - Macronix (ROM/ NOR flash) up 389% 1Y - Phison Electronics (SSD controllers for Kioxia $SNDK) up 383% 1Y Some other interesting ones are Tokyo Electron for NAND/DRAM equipment for indirect beneficiaries
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看好人形机器人领域，认为其热度将紧随AI供应链之后。
@amitisinvesting 是的，人形机器人(humanoids)将会超级酷，我迫不及待了！ 很多人做多(long)人工智能(AI)供应链，但机器人(robotics)领域可能很快就会开始升温。
英文原文
@amitisinvesting Yeah humanoids are gonna be super cool, I can’t wait! Lot of people are long AI supply chains but robotics might start picking up soon
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特斯拉转产Optimus机器人，利好相关供应链。
仅供参考：市场经常忽略财报电话会议中的声明（如 $TSLA）及其二阶效应（往往在很久之后才将其计入价格）。 这对于像 $VPG 这样的 Optimus 机器人供应链来说，可能是最大的新闻之一。 特别是 Optimus 现在将开始量产，而且 Elon 已将 Model S 和 X 的专用工厂转为生产 Optimus。
英文原文
FYI: Markets often miss statements in earnings calls like $TSLA and their second order effects (price them in much later) This is probably one of the biggest news for robotic supply chains of Optimus like $VPG. Especially that Optimus will ramping up now and that Elon has dedicated factories from Model S and X.
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揭秘拥有AlSiC供应链优势、受益于AI散热与国防的低风险公司。
我惊讶于评论区里大多数 X 侦探都猜对了。 我很快会发布关于这家神秘公司的深度文章。 根据我的研究，一家美国公司拥有铝硅碳化物(AlSiC)供应链的很大一部分份额是独特的，因为这种材料可用于 $NVDA Rubin 代产品的散热。 更妙的是，AlSiC 在太空和国防垂直领域的应用使得该公司下行风险较低，因为国防部/雷神/诺斯罗普/NASA 都依赖这种复合材料。 但谁知道，这种用于高超音速导弹、F-35 战斗机和火星太空探索的散热材料，也能用于解决 2000W+ AI 部署中的翘曲问题？ 市场似乎尚未意识到这一点。
英文原文
I'm surprised majority of the X detectives in the comments guessed this right. I'll do a write-up on this mystery company soon. From my research, it was unique to have US company own a large % of the AlSiC supply chain, as this material could be used for $NVDA Rubin gen for thermal. Better yet, Space + Defense vertical usage of AlSiC gives this company low downside risk bc of DoD/Raytheon/Northrop/NASA reliance of the material composite. But, who knew the same thermal material used for hypersonic missiles, f-35 fighter jets, and Mars space exploration could also be used to handle warpage for 2000W+ AI deployments? Doesn’t seem like markets have yet.
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解析AI芯片散热瓶颈：CTE不匹配致翘曲，AlSiC成Rubin架构候选方案。
熔点是完全无关的信息。向2000W功率演进导致的问题源于热膨胀系数(CTE)不匹配。 铜的膨胀速度快得多，这会导致翘曲。铝硅碳化物(AlSiC)并非“新”材料，因为它早已用于高铁到高超音速导弹等领域。 只是碰巧在Rubin架构世代出现了新的应用场景，而在Blackwell架构中并不需要它。 实现路径只有几种，AlSiC只是可能的候选方案之一。
英文原文
Melting point is completely irrelevant information. The move to 2000W causes stress due to CTE mismatch. Copper expands multitudes faster, which causes warpage. AlSiC isn't "new" since it's been around for high speed rails to hypersonic missiles. It just so happens that there's a new use case with Rubin generations where it wasn't needed with blackwell. There are single digit different ways to go about it, AlSiC is just one of the likely candidates.
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对比新型云融资结构，指出Coreweave债务风险高且英伟达损失可控。
其他如 $CIFR、$WULF 是数据中心托管(colocation)商，它们不购买 GPU。$CRWV、$NBIS、$IREN 则购买。前两家由 $NVDA 注资。后者 $IREN 由 $MSFT 通过预付款购买 GPU。大多数新型云(neoclouds)拥有极佳的融资结构，如 Nebius 的低息可转换债券。Coreweave 是唯一陷入困境的，背负巨额债务，因此若无垃圾债(junk bonds)支持，很难获得额外资金购买更多 GPU。英伟达给 Coreweave 泼了冷水，投入 Coreweave 的 20 亿美元最终仍回流至 $NVDA。如果 Coreweave 因巨额债务和贬值的 GPU 而倒闭，英伟达损失并不大。
英文原文
Others like $CIFR, $WULF are colo. They don't buy GPUs. $CRWV, $NBIS, $IREN do. The first two $NVDA funded. The latter one, $MSFT did with prepayment for Iren to buy GPUs. Most neoclouds have great financing structures like low interest rate Nebius convertible notes. Coreweave is the only one on fire, with massive debt, so it's harder for them to secure additional funding to buy more GPUs without junk bonds. Nvidia threw a bucket of water on Coreweave and the $2B into Coreweave goes back to $NVDA anyways. Nvidia doesn't lose much if and when Coreweave goes under with just a ton of debt and depreciating GPUs.
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澄清AlSiC与铜在散热中的不同角色及后处理瓶颈价值
在极小的真空中审视局部，从而否定整个多维度的帖子，并非明智之举。 AlSiC（铝硅碳化物）被用于高超音速导弹以承受高温不变形，而非铜，是有原因的。或者它被用于使用 AlSiC 散热片的火箭鼻锥。 我来解释一下其中的细微差别：它们的用途不同。 铜在材料熔化前提供最大热传递，热导率表现更佳。而 AlSiC 基本作为外部结构，在热冲击下维持形状。我们可能会看到铜-金刚石或 AlSiC 的混合材料，因为每种材料各有专长。 AlSiC 尤其用于翘曲控制，因为铜会膨胀，你们在 Blackwell 上已经看到了这一点。 至于制造，情况很复杂。我从未说过它（成本/难度）更高。我说的是前道工序可能面临大规模生产的困难。 但 AlSiC 可能存在后处理瓶颈，如果它成为 2000W+ 架构的组件，从事此环节的公司将更具价值。
英文原文
Not the best idea discredit the entire multifaceted post by looking at something in a tiny, tiny vacuum. There's a reason why AlSiC is used in hypersonic missiles to survive temperature without warping instead of copper. Or why it's used for the nose cone in rockets which use AlSiC heat spreaders. I'll help explain the nuance: they're both used in different ways. Copper for maximum heat transfer before the material melts and it does a better job with thermal conductivity. And AlSiC, which is basically the exterior to maintain the shape under thermal shock. We might see some copper-diamond or AlSiC mix since each material specializes in something different. AlSiC especially is used for warpage control since copper expands and you've already seen that with Blackwell. As for manufacturing. It's nuanced. I never said it was higher. I said former processes likely high mass-production difficulty. But there is likely a post-processing bottleneck with AlSiC, which makes the companies that do this more valuable if it becomes a component for 2000W+ architectures.
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关注8英寸晶圆价格上涨趋势，认可相关分析观点。
@zephyr_z9 8英寸晶圆(wafer)价格上涨确实也是我会关注的一个点！ 很棒的论点(thesis)
英文原文
@zephyr_z9 8 inch *wafer* price increases are definitely something I’d look out for too! Great thesis
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赞同关于南亚科在成熟制程存储领域占据份额的论点。
@zephyr_z9 这句话的前10个字确实有更好的表达方式…… 但论点很棒，我们已经看到南亚科(Nanya)如何在成熟制程(legacy)存储领域占据大量份额，情况正是如此。
英文原文
@zephyr_z9 There’s definitely a better way to word the first 10 words of the sentence.. But great thesis, we’ve already seen how it played out with nanya capturing a lot of legacy w/ memory
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半导体级AlSiC供应链格局及非AI领域应用现状
这里我只讨论材料，本贴不涉及具体公司。 但从供应链角度来看，半导体级铝硅碳化物(AlSiC)的粗略市场份额估算如下： CPS - 30.1%（美国） Denka (TYO: 4061) - 18.7%（日本） Japan Fine Ceramics - 15.6%（日本） MC-21 - 12.1%（美国） BYD - 11.4%（中国） 有趣的是，BYD将其用于电动汽车，而CPS用于国防到高速铁路，因此目前的散热应用非常广泛（尚未涉及AI领域）。
英文原文
I'm just talking about materials here, nothing about specific companies in this post. But in terms of the supply chain, rough est. of semi grade AlSiC looks like this: CPS - 30.1% (United States) Denka (TYO: 4061) - 18.7% (Japan) Japan Fine Ceramics - 15.6% (Japan) MC-21 - 12.1% (United States) BYD - 11.4% (China) It's interesting because BYD use it for EVs while CPS uses it for defense to high speed rails so just all over the board thermal applications usage so far (aside from AI yet).
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博主计划深入研究增强型硅-28技术。
@MarkosAAIG 我需要深入研究一下增强型硅-28(enhanced Si-28)。我敢肯定那些量子圈(quants)的家伙们对此了如指掌。
英文原文
@MarkosAAIG I need to do more research into enhanced Si-28. I'm sure the quantum bros know all about it
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高性能计算或成碳化硅铝继航空航天后的新应用领域。
@__Tomster 没错！高性能计算(HPC)看起来是碳化硅铝(AlSiC)在航空航天/工业之后的下一个潜在行业应用领域。https://t.co/Io4vj1Qms1
英文原文
@__Tomster Yep! HPC looks like a possible next sector application for AlSiC after aerospace/industrial. https://t.co/Io4vj1Qms1
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2027-28年GPU散热瓶颈或致AlSiC材料替代铜铝。
散热可能是2027-2028年GPU的一个问题： 随着散热目标向2000-3000W+范围攀升，铜和铝变得不足。 但AlSiC（铝硅碳化物），一种金属基复合材料，可能变得重要。 原因如下： Rubin VR200 GPU指向1800W TDP，AMD Instinct MI450X据报道高达2500W，$NVDA Rubin Ultra的功耗据报道达到2300W。 向2300W的转变创造了大规模的热通量问题。 AlSiC（铝硅碳化物）是一种金属基复合材料，用于国防、太空和高功率工业应用（如高铁）。 就像Toto等随机马桶公司成为HBM关键一样，这种用于航空航天和工业散热的材料复合材料可能会被用于AI，因为它可以在不发生分层的情况下承受数万次热循环。 因此，随着Rubin等AI加速器达到与工业电源模块或太空相当的功率水平，半导体中AlSiC的采用可能变得重要。 对于2300W系统中的AlSiC： - （结到壳）：包括硅芯片、底部填充物和第一层TIM（热界面材料） - （壳到散热器）：包括均热板（顶盖）和第二层TIM（TIM2） - （散热器到环境）：冷板或液体换热器的热阻。 壳到散热器可能是AlSiC的应用场景。 随着功率密度可能继续向3000W攀升，可能会出现机械和散热危机，这可能导致材料从传统铜封装发生变化。 所以这里有四个部分： 1. 内部/外部散热 看起来SiC（碳化硅）中介层（内部）可能用于$NVDA Rubin代GPU。然后AlSiC（外部）可能用于微通道顶盖（MLCP）或位于芯片中介层组件上方的均热板。 2. 3D垂直堆叠（SoIC） 这些复杂的封装在热循环期间极易翘曲。SiC中介层是脆性晶体，无法提供结构刚性。AlSiC充当“加强筋”，防止基板在高夹紧压力下弯曲。 3. Rubin Ultra NVL576机架可能达到高千瓦功率密度 这种密度造成了SiC中介层无法解决的重量负载瓶颈。Rubin Ultra NVL576机架散热堆栈加液体流道的累积重量可能超过地板承重限制（AlSiC可能成为必要，以在不牺牲传热性能的情况下将散热管理的“死重”减少60%以上）。 4. 微通道的净成型制造 传统铜顶盖必须蚀刻或CNC加工，据报道这一过程在Rubin量产中遇到了高难度。 AlSiC使用“快速注射成型”制造陶瓷预成型体，然后渗入铝。这允许创建复杂的内部几何形状。AlSiC微通道顶盖和硅集成IHS看起来是铜散热管理的替代品。 我们可能会在2026年初看到这一问题的解决，因为SemiAnalysis在2025年报道Nvidia的Blackwell（B100/B200）因CoWoS-L封装中的翘曲问题面临良率问题。 TLDR散热可能是2027-2028年的瓶颈： 一些潜在受益者可能是SiC中介层（高纯度SiC粉末）和用于2027-2028年散热的AlSiC复合材料。 这都是持续的研究，但也许我们会在1-2年内看到一些极其小众且随机的铁路或太空AlSiC供应商被AI使用，就像HBM的马桶制造商一样。
英文原文
Thermal is a likely issue for 2027-2028 GPUs: As thermal targets escalate toward the 2000-3000W+ range, copper and aluminum becomes insufficient. But, AlSiC, a metal matrix composite, may become important. Here's why: Rubin VR200 GPU pointed toward 1800W TDP, AMD Instinct MI450X, reportedly reaches up to 2500W, and $NVDA Rubin Ultra's power reportedtly goes to 2300W. The move toward 2300W creates a heat flux problem of massive scale. Aluminum Silicon Carbide (AlSiC) is a metal matrix composite, used as for defense, space, and high-power industrial applications (eg. high-speed rail). Similar to how random toilet companies like Toto became critical for HBM, this material composite used for thermal management for aerospace and industrial might be used for AI as it can survive tens of thousands of thermal cycles without delamination. So, as AI accelerators like Rubin reach power levels comparable to industrial power modules or space, the adoption of AlSiC in semiconductors may become important. For AlSiC in 2300W systems there's: - (Junction-to-Case): Includes the silicon die, the underfill, and the first layer of TIM - (Case-to-Sink): Includes the heat spreader (lid) and the second layer of TIM (TIM2) - (Sink-to-Ambient): The thermal resistance of the cold plate or liquid heat exchanger. Case-to-Sink is likely the application for AlSiC. And as power densities will likely continue to climb toward the 3000W mark there becomes a mechanical and thermal crisis that likely causes a material change from traditional copper packaging. So there's four different parts to this: 1. Internal/External Thermal It does look like SiC interposers (internal) are probably used for $NVDA Rubin gen GPUs. Then AlSiC (external) may be used for the Microchannel Lid (MLCP) or heat spreader that sits on top of the die interposer assembly. 2. 3D vertical stacking (SoIC) These complex packages are highly vulnerable to warping during thermal cycling. A SiC interposer is a brittle crystal and it cannot provide structural rigidity. AlSiC acts as a "stiffener" that prevents the substrate from bowing under the high clamping pressures 3. Rubin Ultra NVL576 rack likely reaches high KW of power density This density creates a weight-loading bottleneck that SiC interposers cannot solve. Rubin Ultra NVL576 rack cumulative weight of the thermal stack plus liquid manifolds can exceed the floor limits (and AlSiC may become necessary to reduce the "dead weight" of the thermal management by 60%+ without compromising heat transfer). 4. Net-Shape Manufacturing of Microchannels Traditional copper lids must be etched or CNC-machined, a process that has reportedly encountered high mass-production difficulty for Rubin volumes. AlSiC is manufactured using "Quickset Injection Molding" to create a ceramic preform that is then infiltrated with aluminum. This allows for the creation of complex internal geometries. AlSiC Microchannel Lids and Silicon Integrated IHS looks like the alternatives for copper for thermal management. We might be seeing this addressed earlier in 2026 as SemiAnalysis in 2025 reported that Nvidia’s Blackwell (B100/B200) faced yield issues specifically due to warpage in the CoWoS-L packaging. TLDR thermal is a likely a bottleneck in 2027-2028: Some beneficiaries are potentially SiC interposers (high-purity SiC powder) and AlSiC composite for thermal management in 2027-2028. This is all ongoing research, but maybe we'll see some extremely niche and random small railway or space AlSiC supplier be used up for AI in 1-2 years time like toilet makers for HBM.
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关注VICR的GPU供电技术，预判机构正布局下一代架构瓶颈。
@PhotonCap 我得好好研究一下 $VICR。直接在 GPU 裸片(die)下方供电这一点真的很有趣！ 虽然 2027 年的下一代架构可能会出现许多新的瓶颈，但我确信许多投资机构已经在研究并抢先布局了。
英文原文
@PhotonCap $VICR 을 한번 살펴봐야겠네요. GPU 다이(die) 바로 아래에서 전력을 공급한다는 점이 정말 흥미롭습니다! 2027년 차세대 아키텍처에서는 수많은 새로운 병목 현상들이 발생할 수 있겠지만, 이미 많은 투자사들이 이를 연구하며 선점에 나서고 있을 것이라 확신합니다.
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指出COHR市值超300亿，并分享潜在供应链瓶颈清单。
@JakeWoods143114 $COHR 是一家市值超 300 亿美元的公司。这是一份关于潜在瓶颈/卡脖子环节（bottleneck/chokepoints）的低调清单。不过这确实是一家很棒的公司。
英文原文
@JakeWoods143114 $COHR is a $30B+ company. This was a list of under-the-radar potential bottleneck/chokepoints. Great company though.
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某公司掌控全球超两成半导体材料供应，或成2027年散热瓶颈受益者。
这里有一家有趣的公司，恰好拥有全球约 25-30% 的半导体级材料供应链。散热可能是一个问题，因此随着 $NVDA 架构在 2027 年的部署，这可能成为一个潜在的材料复合材料瓶颈。H200（<1000W）没有问题，但随着 Rubin 部署功率升至 2000W，它可能是材料转型的隐性受益者。
英文原文
There's an interesting company on here that happens to own ~25-30% of this semi-grade material supply chain in the world. Thermal is probably an issue, so might be a potential material composite chokepoint with $NVDA architectures in 2027. There was no issue with H200s (<1000W) but as you get higher to 2000w with Rubin deployments, might be a hidden beneficiary of material transitions.
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韩美关税升级致三星SK海力士陷入不确定性循环
特朗普将关税从15%提高到25%，专门因为韩国尚未批准去年10月的“历史性贸易协议”。正如你提到的，主要目标是“汽车、汽车零部件、木材和制药”。他的帖子提到了“所有其他互惠关税”，这可能为其他所有商品创造了一个“兜底”场景。特朗普几乎每两周就会发出威胁。这紧随霍华德·卢特尼克（Howard Lutnick）在16日（亚洲时间17日）对内存产品发出的100%关税最后通牒。韩国表示尚未收到关于关税的正式通知。这仅仅表明三星/SK海力士陷入了“TACO”循环，不太确定实际会发生什么。
英文原文
Trump raised tariffs from 15% to 25% specifically because the SK hasn't ratified the "Historic Trade Agreement" from last Oct. Primary targets as you mentioned was "automobiles, auto parts, lumber, and pharma. His post mentioned "all other Reciprocal TARIFFS," which possibly creates a "catch-all" scenario for everything else. Trump issues threats almost every other week. And this is just following Howard Lutnick's 100% tariff ultimatum on memory products on the 16th (Asia 17th). South Korea has said it has not yet received formal notification that the tariffs. This is just showing Samsung/SK Hynix are stuck in the "TACO" loop, not quite sure what will actually happen.
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研究Google TPU v8x玻璃基板供应链瓶颈及潜在受益股。
我持有 $MU 的头寸，但目前只是持有不动。 说到 $INTC，我刚刚研究了关于 Google TPU v8x 据报道使用的 EMIB-T 玻璃可能存在的铝硅酸盐玻璃瓶颈： 例如：钡和锶 -> $SOLV 锡 / 二氧化锡 (SnO2) -> $MTL 化学机械抛光 (CMP) 浆料和纯度过滤器 -> $ENTG 精炼硼酸盐 -> $FEAM 气相二氧化硅 -> $CBT 还没研究完，但他们在该领域的工作确实是一个令人兴奋的机会。
英文原文
I have $MU positions but I'm just sitting on them. Speaking of $INTC, was just looking into possible aluminosilicate glass bottlenecks with EMIB-T on glass reportedly used by Google TPU v8x: eg. Barium & Strontium -> $SOLV Tin / SnO2 -> $MTL CMP Slurries and Purity Filters -> $ENTG Refined Borates -> $FEAM Fumed Silica -> $CBT Haven't finished yet, but their work in the area is definitely an exciting opportunity
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钨在芯片、HBM及国防中关键，重要性将随锑等金属上升。
@halldj00 钨(Wolfram)相当有趣，因为它被用于芯片制造（例如 $NVDA Blackwell）、高带宽内存(HBM)、电池以及弹药等国防领域。它们之所以关键是有原因的，像锑(Antimony)这类材料曾出现过巨大的价格逼空，但我确信它们的重要性都会上升。
英文原文
@halldj00 Tungsten is pretty interesting since it's used for chip manufacturing (eg. $NVDA blackwell), hbm, batteries, and defense like ammunition. They're all critical for a reason, stuff like antimony had a huge price squeeze but I'm sure they'll all rise in importance.
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列举中国关键矿物出口管制瓶颈及西方受益股。
今天，在美国政府提供16亿美元资金后，所有目光都聚焦在铜、$SLV 和 $USAR 上。 但你有没有想过那些更隐蔽、实则更值得关注的交易标的？ 1. 钨 - $ALM 2. 铟 - $TECK 3. 铋 - TSE: $VNP 4. 碲 - $VNP 5. 钼 - $FCX 6. 锂 - $LAC 7. 锑 - $UAMY 8. 镓 - $AA 9. 锗 - $TECK 10. 石墨 - $SYAAF 这是中国关键矿物/材料出口管制的一些主要瓶颈环节及其西方受益者的列表。 并不是每天都有外国政府直接告诉你该买什么。
英文原文
Today, all eyes are on Copper, $SLV, and $USAR after US Gov's $1.6B funding. But ever wonder about the more silent trades you should really be watching out for? 1. Tungsten - $ALM 2. Indium - $TECK 3. Bismuth - TSE: $VNP 4. Tellurium - $VNP 5. Molybdenum - $FCX 6. Lithium - $LAC 7. Antimony- $UAMY 8. Gallium - $AA 9. Germanium - $TECK 10. Graphite - $SYAAF This are the list of some of the top Chinese critical minerals/material export control chokepoints and the Western beneficiary. Not everyday do you have foreign governments telling you what to buy.
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推荐AI供应链关键外国垄断股及美股替代投资渠道。
我首选的外国股票摘要： 1. 日本帝人博西(Nitto Boseki) - T-玻璃(T-Glass) 2. 台湾欣兴电子(Unimicron) - 基板/玻璃核心(Substrates/Glass Core) 3. 三星/SK海力士 - 高带宽内存(HBM) 4. 日本铠侠(Kioxia) - 与 $SNDK 合作的 NAND 闪存 5. 台湾南亚科技(Nanya Technologies) - 内存 我通常更偏好“美国制造”瓶颈及供应链相关的美国标的，如 $INTC (晶圆代工)、$MU (内存) 或 $LPTH (锗)。但这些外国公司要么对整个人工智能(AI)基础设施建设至关重要，要么能捕获大量溢出需求。 如果你想知道如何进入外国市场？ - $IBKR 像帝人博西这样的公司有美国场外交易(OTC)等价物，如 $NBCLF。如果你使用 Robinhood，$EWY / $FLKR 可以提供对韩国大型内存公司的敞口。 像帝人博西这样的公司接近垄断，因此这是我特意去投资的极少数外国公司。
英文原文
TLDR of my top foreign stocks: 1. Nitto Boseki - T-Glass (Japan) 2. Unimicron - Substrates/Glass Core (Taiwan) 3. Samsung/SK Hynix - HBM (Korea) 4. Kioxia - NAND w/ $SNDK (Japan) 5. Nanya Technologies - Memory (Taiwan) US supply chains like $INTC (foundry), $MU (memory), or $LPTH (germanium) are typically my longs of preference "Made in America" bottleneck + supply chains. But some of these foreign companies are either critical to the entire AI buildout or capture a lot of the overflow. If you're wondering how you get access to foreign markets? - $IBKR There are US OTC equivalents for companies like Nitto Boseki like $NBCLF. If you're on Robinhood, $EWY / $FLKR provides access to large KR memory exposure. Some like Nitto Boseki are near monopolies so these are the very rare foreign companies I go out of my way to invest in.
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引用三星NAND涨价100%报道，印证供应短缺。
@srikyada 帖子中已经明确引用了。但这是三星(Samsung)的版本：“三星电子，第一季度NAND价格上调100%……‘供应跟不上需求’”——电子新闻(ET News)
英文原文
@srikyada It’s literally cited in the post. But this is the SK version: “삼성전자, 1분기 낸드 가격 100% 인상…“공급이 수요 못 따라간다” - 전자신문 (ET News)
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对比SICC、COHR与WOLF在300mm晶圆技术路线上的差异。
@Zlack00 SICC 在 2024 年进行了展示，$COHR 在 2025 年 12 月拥有其 300mm 里程碑。 $WOLF 声称是首个 300mm “单晶”晶圆。其他则被声称是多晶或低质量衬底。因此措辞很微妙。https://t.co/fH2GCc2G5c
英文原文
@Zlack00 SICC had a showcase in 2024, $COHR has its own 300mm milestone in December 2025. $WOLF claimed to be first 300mm "single crystal" wafer. Others were claimed to be poly-crystal or low-quality substrates. So wording is nuanced. https://t.co/fH2GCc2G5c
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将COHR比作西方欣兴，强调其在多领域供应链瓶颈中的关键地位。
@platochi $COHR 就像西方的欣兴电子（Unimicron）（指它们在未来瓶颈环节如碳化硅(SiC)到磷化铟(InP)中无处不在，并非比较上下游关系）。当我在太空、机器人、人工智能领域进行供应链映射时，我喜欢投资那些在多个地方频繁出现的公司。
英文原文
@platochi $COHR is like the Western Unimicron (in the sense they show up everywhere on future bottlenecks like SiC to InP, not comparing downstream/upstream). When I do these supply chain mapping in space, robotics, AI, I like to invest in ones that just pop up multiple places.
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澄清ACLS用于SiC功率器件而非中介层，或涉及电源链。
@FrontRangeHQ 我相当确定 $ACLS 用于碳化硅(SiC)功率器件，而不是碳化硅(SiC)中介层？ 不过它们可能会出现在电源输送链中。
英文原文
@FrontRangeHQ Pretty sure $ACLS is used in SiC power devices, not SiC interposers? They might show up in the power delivery chain though.
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梳理SiC中介层供应链瓶颈及2027年Rubin架构落地时间线。
如果你不喜欢 $WOLF，以下是 $NVDA Rubin 和超大规模客户 ASIC 潜在的碳化硅(SiC)中介层瓶颈股组合： 下游 SiC： $TSM - 用于 CoWoS 中介层的 SiC $AMKR - 用于 SiC 集成的 S-SWIFT 封装 $ASX - VIPack 平台及光学集成 中游 SiC： $KLAC - SiC 缺陷检测 $ONTO - 面板级封装+检测 $AMAT - SiC 沉积 $AEHR - SiC 检测 $ENTG - 化学机械抛光(CMP) $BESI (AS) - 混合键合设备 Disco - 70-80% 市场份额的精密切割 SiC 晶圆： $WOLF - 300mm SiC 晶圆 $COHR - 150mm 和 200mm SiC，仍在开发中 SK Siltron CSS (KRX: 034730) - 建设至 200mm Resonac (4004 TYSE) - SmartSiC 键合 NGK Insulators - 晶体生长 Kyocera - SiC 及陶瓷封装 这些都是早期供应链+活跃研究标的。 那么时间线何时到来？ 2025-2026 (Blackwell Ultra)：继续依赖硅中介层 2027 (Rubin / Rubin Ultra)：在最高端 AI SKU 中引入 SiC 中介层。 2028+：玻璃基板/SiC/金刚石中介层？ 披露：我持有上述 $AMKR, $AEHR, $ONTO, $COHR 和 $TSM。
英文原文
The potential SiC (Silicon Carbide) Interposer bottleneck stack for $NVDA Rubin and Hyperscaler ASICs (if you didn't like $WOLF): Downstream SiC: $TSM - SiC for CoWoS interposers $AMKR - S-SWIFT packaging for SiC integration $ASX- VIPack platform and optical integration. SiC Midstream: $KLAC - SiC defect inspection $ONTO - Panel-level packaging + inspection $AMAT - SiC deposition $AEHR - SiC inspection $ENTG - CMP $BESI (AS) - Hybrid Bonding equipment Disco - 70-80% marketshare precision cutting SiC Wafers: $WOLF - 300mm SiC wafers. $COHR - 150mm and 200mm SiC, still developing SK Siltron CSS (KRX: 034730) - Building to 200mm Resonac (4004 TYSE) - SmartSiC bonding NGK Insulators - Crystal growth Kyocera - SiC and ceramic packaging These are all early supply chain + active research. So when does this timeline hit? 2025-2026 (Blackwell Ultra): Continued reliance on Silicon Interposers 2027 (Rubin / Rubin Ultra): Introduction of SiC interposers in the highest-end AI SKUs. 2028+: Glass Substrates/SiC/Diamond Interposers? Disclosure: I own $AMKR, $AEHR, $ONTO, $COHR and $TSM above.
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发布西方供应链瓶颈小盘股清单，警示瓶颈不等于好投资。
@__EthanHunt__ 我在潜在瓶颈列表中列出了 $WOLF，这家公司确实很有趣。但“瓶颈”和“好投资”之间是有区别的。我觉得我做的尽职调查(DD)不能白费，所以干脆把它发出来了。 https://t.co/XCICxxODXQ
英文原文
@__EthanHunt__ I listed $WOLF in my list of potential bottlenecks, and the company genuinely is interesting. But there's a difference between "bottleneck" and good investment. Felt my the DD I did would go to waste, so ended up just posting it. https://t.co/XCICxxODXQ
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梳理高纯铜、铜钨及铜基建相关的美股标的。
@Ren_aramb 好问题，对于高纯度铜（无氧铜/铜铬锆合金），是 $FCX 和 $SCCO。 $MTRN 用于铜钨合金(Copper-Tungsten)。 $APH 和 $TEL 用于引擎到激光器之间的铜基础设施。
英文原文
@Ren_aramb Good question, so for high purity copper (OFHC Copper / CuCrZr), $FCX and $SCCO. $MTRN for CuW (Copper-Tungsten). $APH and $TEL for copper infra between engine -> laser.
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欣兴电子处于关键供应链瓶颈，但西方投资者难以交易。
@PhotonCap 欣兴电子(Unimicron)身处众多未来建设计划及潜在瓶颈环节之中，因此对我来说也极具吸引力。话虽如此，由于它在台湾证券交易所(TWSE)上市，西方投资者很难获得交易权限。
英文原文
@PhotonCap Unimicron sits in so many future buildouts and potential bottlenecks so it’s incredibly interesting to me as well. That being said it’s hard for Westerners to get access to since it trades on TWSE
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中国AI企业受推理算力限制，凸显英伟达在供应链中的绝对主导地位。
有很多报道称中国科技公司（字节跳动、$BABA 等）在推理算力上正面临困境。 中国可能仍未改变其国内自主可控的目标，但推理限制的严峻现实可能迫使他们做出妥协。 这恰恰证明了 $NVDA 的主导地位，即 AI 企业若没有它便无法运转。
英文原文
There were many reports Chinese tech (bytedance, $BABA, etc) were struggling with inference capacity. China still hasn’t likely changed their domestic self-reliance goal but reality of inference limits likely forced their hand. Just goes to show how dominant $NVDA is that AI firms can’t function without it
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日企Nitto Boseki垄断AI关键材料T-glass，巨头争抢供应至2026年。
Nitto Boseki - $NBCLF | 3110: AI极端瓶颈的故事： > 1923年开始纺纱/玻璃纤维 > 做到极致 > 为网球拍创造“T-Glass”（T-玻璃） > 等待100年，所有人都需要它 > $TSM 用于 CoWoS（芯片级封装） > $APPL 用于 M-Series Ultra/Max > $NVDA 用于 Blackwell + Vera Rubin > $TSLA 用于 FSD 汽车内的芯片 > $AMD 用于 MI300/MI400 AI 加速器 > $ANET 用于 800G 到 1.6T 和 3.2T > 苹果、英伟达和台积电争夺供应 > 已售罄至 2026 年 > 苹果、英伟达和高通派团队驻厂，字面意义上向这家纱线制造商乞求玻璃供应 > 目前在半导体用高端 T-glass 市场占据 80-90% 份额 这家价值 42.3 亿美元的垄断企业，全球科技公司都在争夺： 一家随机的日本纱线制造商。 披露：我持有头寸。
英文原文
Nitto Boseki - $NBCLF | 3110: The story of an extreme bottleneck for AI: > Spin Yarn/Glass in 1923 > Be good at it > Create "T-Glass" for tennis rackets > Wait 100Y, everyone needs it > $TSM for CoWoS > $APPL for M-Series Ultra/Max > $NVDA for Blackwell + Vera Rubin > $TSLA for chips inside FSD cars > $AMD for MI300/MI400 AI accelerators > $ANET for 800G to 1.6T and 3.2T > Have Apple to Nvidia to TSM fighting over supply > Sold out through 2026 > Apple, Nvidia, and Qualcomm sends teams live on site to literally beg this Yarn Maker for glass supply > Now is 80-90% market share of the high-end T-glass used in semiconductors The $4.23 Billion monopoly that every tech company in the world is fighting over: A random Japanese Yarn Spinner. Disclosure: I own positions.
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AXTI光子学原料受出口禁令影响，数月后或现瓶颈。
@0x_ysn 这与存储芯片关系不大，因为 $AXTI 涉及的是光子学(Photonics)输入端，几个月内会出现瓶颈。我们将看到西方公司在两周前的出口禁令后，还有多少个月的原料/前驱体库存可供消耗。
英文原文
@0x_ysn Not really related to memory since $AXTI is for photonics inp bottleneck in a few months time. We’ll see how many months of feedstock/precursors Western companies have + use up post export-ban 2 weeks ago.
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澄清MRAM不属于英伟达或美光HBM4堆栈。
@Lotharinvest $MRAM 并不位于 $NVDA / $MU 的高带宽内存第四代(HBM4) 堆栈内部。
英文原文
@Lotharinvest $MRAM does not sit inside the $NVDA / $MU HBM4 stack.
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梳理受益于美光及三星的HBM4供应链中小市值美股标的。
存储超级周期供应链要点： 受益于 $MU 和 SK/三星的美国冷门 HBM4/存储阿尔法标的： $VECO ($20亿) - 激光退火 $PLAB ($21亿) - 光刻掩模版 $ADEA ($21.8亿) - 混合键合 $ACLS ($29亿) - 离子注入 $FORM ($64.3亿) - HBM晶圆测试 $ONTO ($106亿) - 封装量测 $AMKR ($131亿) - 先进封装 $RMBS ($135.5亿) - 存储IP $MKSI ($149亿) - 激光子系统 未包含 $TER 和 $KLAC 等巨头，只想聚焦于知名度较低的标的。 还有一些间接受益者如 $SMTC 和 $MTSI。市场肯定尚未完全定价其中部分标的。 如果我漏掉了任何标的请告诉我。 只是想发布这些，以防你们对其中任何一只感兴趣。
英文原文
Memory Supercycle Supply Chain TLDR: US Sleeper HBM4/Memory alpha picks that benefit from $MU and SK/Samsung: $VECO ($2B) -Laser annealing $PLAB ($2.1B) - Lithography photomask $ADEA ($2.18B) - Hybrid bonding $ACLS ($2.9B) - Ion implantation $FORM ($6.43B) - HBM wafer testing $ONTO ($10.6B) - Packaging metrology $AMKR ($13.1B) -Advanced packaging $RMBS ($13.55B) - Memory IP $MKSI ($14.9B) - Laser subsystems Didn't include big players like $TER and $KLAC since just wanted to focus on lesser known ones. There's some indirect beneficiaries too like $SMTC and $MTSI. Markets definitely haven't priced some of these in yet. Let me know if I missed any. Just wanted to publish these in case you find any of them interesting.
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解析特斯拉机器人供应链瓶颈，强调寻找早期Alpha而非跟风。
我通常不会回复这种别有用心的诱导性问题，但我正在发布关于与特斯拉Optimus机器人相关的机器人供应链股票的信息综合。不幸的是，我试图发现阿尔法（Alpha），以便在早期找到下一个从$30涨到$453的$SNDK，而不是像$SOFI、$ASTS、$TSLA那样对已知的金融科技主题进行多头喊单以寻求确认偏误（Confirmation Bias）。人们似乎真的很讨厌当信息被证明方向正确，且像$OSS这样的公司获得60%以上的重估（Re-rated）时。如果信息错误，该公司第二天就会崩盘，而不是像$LPTH那样不断上涨。没人知道市场如何对信息进行定价，它可能是对的也可能是错的。而且我无法控制扫描我帖子的高频交易（HFT）算法。话虽如此，$VPG当天收盘持平。这是一个与机器人量产挂钩的多头头寸，Citron等几家机构去年已经入场。考虑到机器人行业的拐点，它现在只是处于雷达之下。
英文原文
I normally don’t reply to disingenuous leading questions like this but I’m posting information synthesis on robotic supply chain stocks linked to Tesla Optimus. Unfortunately I try and discover alpha to find the next $30->$453 $SNDK at the start rather than bull posting the same known $SOFI, $ASTS, $TSLA finx theme for confirmation bias. And people really seem to dislike when the information turns out to be directionally right and companies like $OSS get re-rated 60%+. If it wasn’t, the company would crash the next day instead of constantly going up like $LPTH Nobody knows how markets price in the information, it could be right or wrong. And I have no control what HFT algorithms do that scan my posts. That being said $VPG ended the day flat. This is a long position tethered to humanoid ramp that several institution like Citron already entered last year. It’s just under the radar now considering the inflection point for robotics.
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VPG被视为机器人领域的Lite，因市场未聚焦该供应链而鲜为人知。
@StockStormX 是的，$VPG 之于机器人/$TSLA Optimus 的量产爬坡，就像 $LITE 之于 Google TPU。由于市场尚未聚焦于机器人供应链，它并不广为人知。
英文原文
@StockStormX Yeah $VPG is like the $LITE (Google TPU) for robotics/ $TSLA Optimus ramp up. Not very well known since markets haven't focused on robotics supply chains yet
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美股AI/半导体股隔夜恐慌后大幅反弹，验证地缘博弈下的供应链套利机会。
$ONDS 至 $LPTH 现已反弹 +7.16% 至 +9.0%。 甚至 $INTC 也上涨了 4.4%。 许多股票在隔夜交易中下跌了 -5% 至 -8%。 还有其他人利用 TACO 交易恐慌获利吗？ https://t.co/uwp9sW7sQn
英文原文
$ONDS to $LPTH are now back up +7.16% to +9.0%. Even $INTC is up 4.4%. Many were down -5% to -8% overnight trading. Did anyone else take advantage of the TACO trade panic? https://t.co/uwp9sW7sQn
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特朗普关税恐慌是估值礼物，国防与本土AI供应链将受益于政策博弈。
关于$OSS -6.1%至$ONDS -4.85%下跌引发的潜在市场崩盘恐慌很多。但随着市场转红，特朗普已开始降级局势。从特朗普关税的历史来看，我们知道一件事：特朗普非常在意市场： - $AVAV的复制者（Replicator）Switchblade无人机项目 至 - 复制者2（Replicator 2）反无人机系统，$AIRO、$ONDS等可能受益。 1.5万亿美元的拟议国防支出保持不变。 AI建设中的 - $LITE、$COHR在$GOOGL和超大规模ASIC建设中的角色 或 - $INTC、$SKY在美国本土硬件中的角色 均未改变。我们正见证历史上最大的无人机、关键材料储备、AI建设、太空扩张及“美国制造”供应链的扩张。 我认为这种波动往往是“估值礼物”，因为这些都是空头威胁。欧美领导人之间的泄露消息显示对话正在进行。特朗普只是在用“极限施压”话术看能谈判到什么。当然，特朗普将标普500视为其实时支持率，这就是为什么他在中期选举前迫使大幅降息。随着美股隔夜转红，我们已看到局势缓和。我们很可能会看到完整的“贸易协议达成”，以便他宣称成功->市场创历史新高。
英文原文
There's a lot of panic about a potential market crash from $OSS -6.1% to $ONDS -4.85% dropping ON. But now, Trump is already starting to de-escalate as markets go red. From the history of Trump's tariffs We know one thing. Trump cares too much about the market: $1.5T in proposed defense spending from - $AVAV Replicator Switchblade drone programs to - Replicator 2 counter-UAV with potential for $AIRO, $ONDS and others. is still the same. Nothing in the AI buildout from - $LITE, $COHR role in $GOOGL and hyperscaler ASIC buildout or - $INTC, $SKY role in US domestic hardware has changed. We're seeing the largest buildup from drone, critical material stockpiles, AI buildout, Space scale-up, and Made in America supply chains in history. My opinion is that this volatility is often a "valuation gift" since these are all empty threats. And the leaked messages between the EU/US leaders shows dialogue is taking place. Trump is just doing his "Maximum Pressure" rhetoric to see what can be negotiated. And, of course, Trump views the S&P 500 as his real-time approval rating, which is why he's forcing so many rate cuts before midterm elections. As US markets go red overnight, we're seeing the walk-back happen already. And we'll likely see that full "trade-deal made" so he can claim he succeeded -> markets hit ATHs.
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Lightpath的锗是AI供应链关键瓶颈
@bennybigbull 我原本有关于 $LPTH 和 $AXTI 的深度撰写案例，但文章太长所以我删减了一个。不过是的，Lightpath 的锗(Germanium)是主要瓶颈之一 https://t.co/1cUXeoXMbX
英文原文
@bennybigbull I originally had two examples with $LPTH and $AXTI in depth writeups but the article got too long so I trimmed one of them. But yes Lightpath for Germanium is one of the big bottlenecks https://t.co/1cUXeoXMbX
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感谢提及，指出光子学领域存在诸多供应链瓶颈。
@crux_capital_ 感谢提及！希望内容略有启发。光子学(Photonics)领域存在诸多瓶颈，相信你会对该领域感兴趣。
英文原文
@crux_capital_ Appreciate the shoutout! Hope it was slightly informative There’s a lot of photonics related bottlenecks so I’m sure you’d be interested in that area
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区分数据中心重估与新瓶颈发现的投资逻辑差异。
像 $NBIS 或 $CIFR 这样的公司是 2026 年高确信度的标的。但这与一家市值 5000 万美元的小众公司突然因 $NVDA 或 $MSFT 囤货而需求激增的情况不同。数据中心(DC)相关股票可能获得 1 年 2-3 倍的估值重估，但这与新瓶颈带来的 2000%+ 信息发现效应截然不同。像 $UUUU 或 $MP 这样的已知瓶颈也是如此。话说回来，我在文章中把磷化铟(indium phosphide)和导弹拼错了，可以看出我是手写的（也很尴尬）。
英文原文
Companies like $NBIS or $CIFR are high conviction for 2026. But it’s not the same as a small $50m niche company, suddenly being in over-demand from $NVDA or $MSFT stockpiling inventory. You might get a 2-3x 1Y re-rating with DCs but it’s a different story than 2000%+ information discovery of a new bottleneck. Same with known bottlenecks like $UUUU or $MP That being said I also misspelled indium phosphide and missiles in my article so you can tell I hand wrote it (also embarrassing)
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博主调侃自己为磷化铟涨价欢呼，暗示其稀缺性价值。
@jukan05 我为磷化铟(InP)相关价格上涨欢呼，我是个坏人吗？我不可能是唯一一个这么想的人。
英文原文
@jukan05 Am I a bad person cheering on InP related price hikes? I can’t be the only one
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分析WOLF、LPKFF等AI供应链瓶颈股的投资潜力与稳定性。
$WOLF 在重组后可能是上面最有趣的一个。 $LPKFF 也涉及玻璃基板，且拥有激光诱导深蚀刻技术，市值仅 $1.69 亿，因此可能具有最具爆发力的 10 倍上行空间。 $MTRN 可能是上面最稳定的一个，鉴于其拥有约占全球 65% 的铍（Beryllium）储量，上行空间相当可观。 还有其他几只，但要么基本面真的很差，要么其瓶颈环节过于小众。 例如 $LPTH 的瓶颈横跨国防、AI、无人机等多个领域。 $AXTI 的瓶颈规模很大，而 AI 本身就是一个巨大的板块，因此不需要分散（尽管磷化铟(InP)也用于许多其他领域)。
英文原文
$WOLF was probably the most interesting one up there after restructuring. $LPKFF also for glass substrates and they own the laser induced deep etching at a $169m MC, so possibly most explosive 10x upside. $MTRN is probably the most stable one up there with decently high upside given it owns the mountain for ~65% of the world's Beryllium. There were a few others but just the fundamentals were either really bad or their bottleneck was too niche. $LPTH's bottleneck for example spreads across both defense, AI, drones, etc. $AXTI's bottleneck was so big and AI is such a big sector so it doesn't need to be spread across (but InP is used in a lot of other sectors too).
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梳理西方供应链瓶颈小盘股，警示基本面风险，看好部分标的5倍潜力。
个人研究摘要。 西方供应链瓶颈如 $LPTH 和 $AXTI： $MTRN - 铍（Spor Mountain） $HALEU - 铀 | 小型模块化反应堆(SMRs) $ESE - 太空燃料箱（通过 Vacco） $GHM - 真空喷射器与表面冷凝器 | 美国海军 $FEIM - 原子钟 $OPXS - 光激光潜望镜 $TAYD - 振动 $PKE - 热 $VNP.TO - 西方镓 $TDY - 抗辐射图像传感器 $RDW - 展开式太阳能电池阵列 $PDFS - 英特尔 18A 的 Exensio 良率 $WOLF - 碳化硅 $RELL - 超级电容器与磁控管 $CPSH - 热管理/铝碳化硅 $VREX - X 射线管 $GSM - 西方金属硅 $INTT - 极端热循环 $CODA - 浊度（浑浊） $NTI - 腐蚀 $PLAB - 光掩模 $MKSI - 等离子体控制 $KULR - 爆炸性热量 $PESI - 放射性混合废物。 $CVV - 气相沉积成固。 $LPKFF - 激光诱导深刻蚀/玻璃基板 这些只是我研究的更多“低调”小盘股 -> 最终选择了 $AXTI 和 $LPTH，如果有人感兴趣的话。 其中许多尽管至关重要，但基本面很差，例如：$IQE（已广为人知），所以盲目买入瓶颈股并不是个好主意。 还有更多我尚未完成研究的（因此未列入），要找出那些尚未被定价的标的要难得多。 但如果其中许多在未来一年上涨 5 倍，我也不会感到惊讶。
英文原文
Personal TLDR research. Western supply chain bottlenecks like $LPTH and $AXTI: $MTRN - Beryllium (Spor Mountain) $HALEU - Uranium | SMRs $ESE - Space fuel tanks (through Vacco) $GHM - Vacuum Ejectors & Surface Condensers | U.S. Navy $FEIM - Atomic Clocks $OPXS - Light Laser Periscopes $TAYD - Vibration $PKE - Heat $VNP.TO - Western gallium $TDY - Rad-Hard Image Sensors $RDW - Roll-Out Solar Arrays $PDFS - Exensio Yield for Intel 18A $WOLF - Silicon Carbide $RELL - Ultracapacitors & Magnetrons $CPSH - Thermal / Aluminum Silicon Carbide $VREX - X-Ray Tubes $GSM - Western Silicon Metal $INTT - Extreme Thermal Cycling $CODA - Turbidity (Murkiness) $NTI - Corrosion $PLAB - Photomask $MKSI - Plasma Control $KULR - Explosive Heat $PESI - Radioactive mixed waste. $CVV - Gas-to-Solid Deposition. $LPKFF - Laser Induced Deep Etching/ Glass Substrates These are just more of the "under the radar" small caps I was researching -> ended up choosing $AXTI and $LPTH if people were interested. Lot of them have terrible fundamentals despite being vital eg: $IQE (already pretty known), so it's not a good idea to just blindly buy a bottleneck. There were a lot more out there I haven't finished researching (so didn't include), and it's a lot harder to pinpoint ones that haven't been priced in. But wouldn't be surprised if a lot of these went up 5x over the next year.