供应链分析
产业链结构、上下游与瓶颈环节研究 · 共 1440 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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LITE财报后市场误读CPO利好导致光学股被错杀，CPO超级周期才刚开始。
我认为很多人会很惊讶地发现，股票并不会直线上涨。 今天： 从 $LITE 到 $SIVE 再到 $AAOI，激光类公司分别下跌 -8.0%、-10.2% 和 -4.38%。 台湾涉及共封装光学(CPO)概念的公司如 MSSCorps、Shunsin 以及相关公司 Win Semi 跌停 -10%。 $AXTI 和 $SOI 分别下跌 -7% 和 -10.2%。 这是在 $LITE 发布财报之后。 我非常确定，市场错过了财报电话会议中关于 CPO 概念的强烈利好信号，但对于 $SIVEF 或 Shunsin 这样的 CPO 概念股来说，这是极度看涨的，然而算法交易却卖出了所有光学股。 这仍然是整个 CPO 超级周期的非常早期的阶段。 在任何量能上升之前。
英文原文
I think many people are surprised to learn that stocks don’t move in a straight line up. Today: Laser companies from $LITE to $SIVE to $AAOI are down -8.0%, 10.2%, and -4.38%. Taiwan limit down -10% on CPO names like MSSCorps, Shunsin, and adjacent like Win Semi. $AXTI and $SOI are down -7% and -10.2%. After $LITE reported earnings. Pretty sure markets missed the heavy nuance that this was extremely bullish for CPO names like $SIVEF or Shunsin from the earnings transcript, but algos sold off everything optical. This is still the very beginning of the entire CPO supercycle curve. Before any volume ramp.
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LPK 继续垂直上涨，玻璃生态很热
@tw_crypto_ 对，$LPK 在垂直线往上走，玻璃生态很热闹。今天 photonics 虽然跌了，但 memory + glass 能把它平衡回来。
英文原文
@tw_crypto_ Yeah $LPK is going in a vertical line up, fun times for the glass ecosystem. Photonics is down today, but memory + glass helps balance it out.
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说明 MSSCorps 做的是 CPO 检测
@itsadnyc MSSCorps 做的是 CPO 检测……
英文原文
@itsadnyc MSSCorps is CPO inspection...
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观察到玻璃基板相关标的今天被机构一起买入
我感觉今天机构就是在买所有和玻璃核心基板有关的东西？ 像： - Philoptics，涨停 - HB technologies，涨停（SKC 供应商） - YCCHEM，涨 20% 而欧洲那边还有 $LPK。 不知道我是不是漏掉了什么重大消息。
英文原文
I feel like institutions are just buying everything glass core substrate related today? Stuff like: - Philoptics, limit up - HB technologies, limit up (SKC supplier) - YCCHEM +20% Then there's $LPK over in Europe. Wonder if I missed any major news.
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认为 LITE 其实是在说 InP substrates 不够
我觉得这只是 $LITE 的公司措辞，意思其实就是： “我们没有足够的 InP substrates”。 还记得我去年说过，随着 photonics 放量，$AXTI 会继续作为关键瓶颈而增长吗？ https://t.co/DfeQa3haIK
英文原文
I think this is just $LITE corporate wording for: “We don’t have enough InP substrates”. Remember I sad last year that as photonics ramps up, $AXTI will just keep growing as a critical bottleneck? https://t.co/DfeQa3haIK
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认为 LITE 外购 CW lasers 让 AAOI 和 SIVE 受益
是的，$LITE 承认自己被迫从竞争对手那里购买 CW lasers，这对 $AAOI 来说是巨大利好。 因为他们自己就有 CW laser fab，而且目标是在 2027 年把产能提升 350%。 $LITE 财报电话会最重要的 nuance 是：$NVDA 已经在上游给 CW lasers 造成了巨大瓶颈。 很可能 $COHR 和 $LITE 都签了多年的 EML 协议，所以它们被锁死了，没法生产足够的 CW lasers。 我持有的一些原来被认为是“Tier 2”的名字，比如 $AAOI 和 $SIVE，现在很可能因为没有被 Nvidia 完全分配产能而地位上升。
英文原文
Yes, $LITE admitting they're forced to buy CW lasers from their competitors is a massive win for $AAOI. Since they have their own CW Laser fab (and target 350% increase in capacity by 2027). The massive nuanced takeaway from $LITE earnings call: $NVDA caused a massive upstream bottleneck for CW lasers. It's likely $COHR and $LITE have multi-year EML agreements, so they're locked up and can't produce enough CW lasers. A lot of the former "Tier 2" players I own like $AAOI and $SIVE, are likely elevated in status now given they're not fully allocated to Nvidia.
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发现 LITE 外购 CW lasers 对 SIVE 是重大利好
这是个新信息：$LITE 被迫从外部竞争对手那里买 CW lasers。 很可能是因为他们和 EML 签了 2027 到 2028 的合同，自己产能不够…… 所以 $SIVE 会成为一个很大的受益者，因为其他 hyperscaler 供应商会转向别的 CW laser 供应商，还有亚洲那些大玩家，比如 Sumitomo + $COHR。 我们看看市场能不能把 1 加 1 连起来。
英文原文
This is new information discovery that $LITE is forced to buy CW lasers from external competitors. Likely because they have EML contracted from 2027-2028 and can't produce enough CW... So $SIVE is a massive beneficiary of other hyperscaler suppliers going to other CW laser suppliers + the big ones in Asia like Sumitomo + $COHR. We'll see if markets can put 1+1 together.
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LITE 的 CW laser 瓶颈验证了 SIVE 的上游地位
哇……巨大的 CW laser 瓶颈。 有意思的是，$LITE 被 CW lasers 卡住了，所以它们要去公开市场买： “现在我们在自己的供应链里，确实看到一点紧张，必须去外部市场拿 lasers，也就是 CW lasers。” $SIVE / Win、Sumitomo、Furukawa 等都在一个结构性卖断货的市场里…… 很可能是因为像 $LITE 这样的公司必须继续生产 EML。 这也开始解释了为什么 Ayar 在网站上只把 $SIVE 列为唯一 laser 供应商，还把 $LITE / $MTSI 删掉了。
英文原文
Woah... Massive CW laser bottleneck. It's interesting $LITE is bottlenecked by CW lasers so they buy them on the open market: "Now we’ve seen a little bit of tension in our own supply line, externally to get lasers from the external market, CW lasers." $SIVE / Win, Sumitomo, Furukawa, and others operate in a structurally sold out market... Likely because companies like $LITE have to keep producing EMLs. Starting to make more sense why Ayar made $SIVE the only laser supplier on their website and removed $LITE / $MTSI?
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CPO面临全行业供需失衡，多处产能瓶颈将显现。
$LITE CEO在财报电话会中措辞是"CPO存在巨大的供需失衡"。 我认为即便是$SIVE、$GFS、Win、Shunsin，以及所有CPO相关公司，都会面临需求过剩的局面……从而在多个环节引发全行业瓶颈。 但话说回来，$AMD的CPO项目可能不得不选择其他激光供应商，比如$SIVE，因为$NVDA锁定了产能。
英文原文
$LITE CEO on their transcript worded it as "massive supply demand imbalance on CPO" I think even $SIVE, $GFS, Win, Shunsin, and everyone CPO related will have too much demand... leading to an industry wide bottleneck on multiple chokepoints But yes, $AMD CPO program likely had to go with other laser suppliers like $SIVE as a result of $NVDA securing capacity.
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认为 LITE 已确认 CPO 超级周期和 TAM 扩张
$LITE 的 CEO 基本上确认了 GS 的 TAM 扩张和 CPO 超级周期。 从接近 0 到 910 亿美元。H2 2026 到 2028： “我认为我们已经说过，CPO 会有巨大的供需失衡” 需求大于供给。 “最大的单一增长驱动，scale-up CPO” 巨大的收入驱动就是 CPO。 “现在还非常处于早期”。 我们正站在起点。 这正是为什么我会持有 $SIVE、MSSCorps、Shunsin、$TSEM、$SOI 等，去获得对 CPO 超级周期起点的高 beta 暴露。
英文原文
$LITE CEO basically confirmed GS TAM expansion + CPO Supercycle. From ~close to nothing -> $91B. From H2 2026 to 2028: “ I think what we’ve said is that we will have a massive supply demand imbalance on CPO” Demand > Supply. “Largest single growth driver, scale-up CPO” Massive revenue driver is CPO. “is very much in its infancy”. We’re at the beginnings. This is exactly why I have positions in $SIVE, MSScorps, Shunsin, $TSEM, $SOI and others for high beta exposure to the start of the CPO supercycle.
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Sivers处CPO供应链前沿，910亿美元TAM蓝海刚起步，H2超级周期可期。
只是近期信息发现的回顾 + 与$SIVE的可能映射： -> $JBL 1.6T -> Lightmatter -> Ayar -> $MRVL Celestial -> Lightelligence -> $POET -> $GFS生态 -> $AMD CPO -> O-Net / Enablence -> $AAPL 硅光子学 _ -> $YSS Golden Dome/DoD -> $RTX / $ERIC (太空) -> Bae Systems -> $AEVA $JBL到Ayar供应给超大规模云商如$MSFT、$GOOGL、$AMZN、$META。 Lightelligence到O-Net可能供应给亚洲超大规模云商如腾讯、字节跳动和百度。 在此之上……根据高盛报告，CPO的整体TAM（总可寻址市场）从0增长到$91B。 而Sivers恰好是CPO领域的前沿（也从0开始）。 这绝对是高贝塔和高波动的。 但如果Win卷随着$SIVE一起增长，我看到他们明年都能成为$10B+的公司。 这只是CPO超级周期H2 2026开始之前非常早期的阶段（H1）。
英文原文
Just a recap of recent information discovery + likely mapping with $SIVE: -> $JBL 1.6T -> Lightmatter -> Ayar -> $MRVL Celestial -> Lightelligence -> $POET -> $GFS ecosystem -> $AMD CPO -> O-Net / Enablence -> $AAPL Silicon Photonics _ -> $YSS Golden Dome/DoD -> $RTX / $ERIC (Space) -> Bae Systems -> $AEVA With $JBL to Ayar feeding into hyperscalers like $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META. With likely Lightelligence to O-Net feeding into Asian Hyperscalers like Tencent, Bytedance, and Baidu. On top of that... the overarching TAM with CPO from the GS report goes from 0 -> $91B. And Sivers happens to be the bleeding edge for CPO (also starting from 0). This is definitely high-beta and volatile. But if Win volume ramps alongside $SIVE, I see them both becoming $10B+ companies next year. This is just extremely early on (H1) before the CPO supercycle starts H2 2026.
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欣讯通过鸿海垂直整合间接成为英伟达CPO供应链受益者，被市场忽视且估值偏低。
我很确定像高盛这样的机构在$15亿估值时错过了欣讯(6451)的CPO封装/测试/组装业务。这就是为什么我非常看好它，认为它是一个完全走后门的、隐藏的英伟达CPO产能提升的主要受益者。鸿海是其供应链中的主要合作伙伴，包括$TSM和$ASX。但是……欣讯是鸿海的光学部门，并承接其内部的全部光学和先进封装业务。所以它们没有在任何地方被明确列出，也没有与英伟达的直接合同（但鸿海有）。但很可能通过鸿海垂直整合吸收了英伟达的CPO和其他产能。
英文原文
Pretty sure institutions like GS missed Shunsin (6451) at $1.65B for CPO packaging/test/assembly. Which is why I'm very bullish on it as a completely backdoored, hidden + major beneficiary of $NVDA CPO ramp. Foxconn is a major supply chain partner among $TSM and $ASX. But… Shunsin is Foxconn's optical arm, and captures their captive optical and advanced packaging volume. So they're not explicitly listed anywhere or have direct contracts with Nvidia (but Foxconn does) But likely soaks up Nvidia CPO + other volumes through Foxconn vertical integration.
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确认 Lightelligence / Lightmatter 也有新消息
@michael_rigoni 不，这确实是关于 Lightelligence 的新信息发现，尤其是考虑到他们最近的成功。 Lightmatter 也是一样。
英文原文
@michael_rigoni No this is definitely new information discovery with Lightelligence. Especially in light of their recent success. Same with Lightmatter.
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认为 OE Solutions 还太早，几乎没开始抽样
@UmidKD OE Solutions 的 sampling 才刚刚开始。ELS 线还没有客户，也没有 active qualification。 大概还早了 8 个月，hyperscaler 供应商甚至未必会决定去认证他们，但市场现在就是在把所有光学相关的东西都往上抬。
英文原文
@UmidKD Sampling has barely started for OE Solutions. No customers or active qualification for their ELS line. Probably 8 months too early and hyperscaler suppliers might not even decide to qualify them, but markets are moving up anything optical related.
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认为 SIVE 在 GFS 生态图里被列入极其看多
没错，市场可能漏掉了 $SIVE + $GFS SCALE 这件事。 $SIVE 被列为 $GFS 生态图里两个公开 laser 供应商之一，这对 Sivers 来说是极度看多的信号。 每当像 $AMD 这种公司使用 $GFS 做 CPO、再借助 GlobalFoundries 搭建光学方案时， Sivers 大概率就是他们的光源，给 $AMD -> hyperscaler 这条链路供能。 带着 CPO 的 hyperscaler buildout 最终会流到这家只有 17 亿美元市值的小型 laser 光源公司 $SIVE 身上。
英文原文
Yes, markets might have missed this with $SIVE + $GFS SCALE. The inclusion of $SIVE as 1 of 2 public laser suppliers in $GFS ecosystem image presentation is a highly bullish indicator for Sivers. Whenever semis like $AMD (using $GFS for CPO), builds their optical solutions with GlobalFoundries. Sivers is the likely light source for their buildout and powers companies like $AMD -> Hyperscalers. The hyperscaler buildout with CPO flows down to this tiny $1.7B MC laser light source in $SIVE.
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认为 SIVE 也是 Lightelligence 的潜在未披露激光供应商
有个很有意思的点：$SIVE / $SIVEF 也很可能是 Lightelligence 的未披露激光供应商。 感谢 Plaskpojen 做的 OSINT 发现。 https://t.co/sj2J0b9ycN
英文原文
Fun thing to note: $SIVE / $SIVEF is the likely undisclosed laser supplier for Lightelligence as well. Credit to: Plaskpojen for the OSINT find. https://t.co/sj2J0b9ycN
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说明 MSSCorp 在 CPO 检测里几乎是功能性垄断
@GCV_geoff 我觉得它还在交易中。
英文原文
@GCV_geoff It's still trading I think.
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解释 MSSCorp 的功能性垄断地位
我确实说过，MSSCORP 很可能在 CPO 检测上有功能性垄断。 这几乎没有绕开的办法，而且对 $NVDA / $TSM 的良率来说都很关键。 他们自己也说过“the c...”
英文原文
I did say MSSCORP likely has a functional monopoly for CPO over inspection. Not really a way around it and it's critical for $NVDA / $TSM yields as CPO ramps. They did say "the company’s goal is to seize a 90 percent share of the CPO inspection market" Should have been the biggest indicator.
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解读 GS 光学 TAM 9 倍增长的 CPO 细节
Goldman Sachs 关于 Optical Networking 的预测。 整体 TAM 会增长 9 倍： 从 150 亿美元到 1540 亿美元。 CPO 占其中 910 亿美元。 这到底是什么情况？ 对，这也是为什么像 $LITE、$SIVE 和 $SOI 这类名字值得关注。
英文原文
Goldman Sachs Projections on Optical Networking. Aggregate TAM would increase 9x: From $15B to $154B. CPO contributes $91B. What the actual? Yep... And another confirmation why I'm so incredibly bullish on CPO names like $SIVE (laser), MSSCorps (yields), or Shunsin (packaging). This is frontrunning the next supercycle. I don't think people realize how wild these projections are yet.
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SIVE 是激光瓶颈供应商，可能供货多家CPO厂商却未被机构发掘。
$SIVE 处于高盛所说的具有显著每股收益(EPS)上行空间的激光瓶颈环节。 但它们仍未被机构发现，尽管它们可能与 $AMD 共封装光学(CPO)、$MRVL CPO、JBL 1.6T、Lightmatter、Ayar、$POET 等公司有关联。 Ayar 被提及了，但奇怪的是他们没有找到它们的上游激光供应商。
英文原文
$SIVE is in the laser chokepoint that Goldman says has significant EPS upside. But they're undiscovered to institutions still, despite their likely mapping to $AMD CPO, $MRVL CPO, $JBL 1.6T, Lightmatter, Ayar, $POET, and others. Ayar got mentioned though, but strange they didn't find their upstream laser supplier.
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认为 CW/EML laser chokepoint 上行空间最大
@jojowamikko 我也有我自己的看法。 但我同意 CW / EML laser chokepoint 是上行空间最大的之一。 他们漏掉了很多名字，我会更关注这些，因为它们相对更纯。
英文原文
@jojowamikko I have my own opinions. But agree that the CW/EML laser chokepoint has one of the highest upside. They missed a ton of names, and I'd focus on those since they're relatively "undiscovered" to institutions.
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高盛看好AI驱动光通信供应链，多环节供应商名单汇总
如果你对高盛的报告感兴趣： 他们预期以下领域会出现"显著的每股收益(EPS)增长"： 1. 光学模块和引擎 2. 连续波(CW)激光器和电吸收调制激光器(EML) 3. 印制电路板(PCB)/覆铜板(CCL)制造商 以下是这份超详细清单： 激光器/光源(硅光子SiPh)：Sumitomo、Furukawa(5801)、Landmark(3081)、YJ Semi、$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO、Etern、曙光光电(https://t.co/hrQbVE0QlT)、世嘉光子(https://t.co/HvJVCM7BMm)、应用光电(AAOI)、Accelink、三菱电机(6503) 激光器/光源(EML)：Lumentum(LITE)、Coherent(COHR)、博通(AVGO)、YJ Semi、永恒光电(Etern)、住友电工(5802)、曙光光电、世嘉光子、Source Photonics(私营)、三菱电机(6503)、Accelink、古河电气(5801) 无源光学组件-耦合器/分路器：FOCI(3363)、Senko(私营)、AFR、Everprox、Lumentum(LITE)、Coherent(COHR) 无源光学组件-滤波器：世嘉光子、住友电工(5802)、Lumentum(LITE)、Coherent(COHR)、唯亚威(VIAV)、FOCI(3363) 无源光学组件-衰减器：Everprox、Accelink、FOCI(3363)、Lumentum(LITE) 无源光学组件-波分复用(WDM)：AFR、Everprox、Accelink、Ciena(CIEN)、TFC Optical、Lumentum(LITE)、FOCI(3363)
英文原文
If you're curious about Goldman's Report: They expect "significant EPS upside" among: 1. Optical modules and engines 2. CW lasers and EMLs 3. PCB/CCL manufacturers Here's the massive cheat sheet: Laser / Light Sources (SiPh): Sumitomo, Furukawa (5801), Landmark (3081), YJ Semi, $LITE, $COHR $AVGO, Etern (https://t.co/Rgl8i5e7N4), Everbright Photonics (https://t.co/hrQbVE0QlT), Shijia Photons (https://t.co/HvJVCM7BMm), Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), Accelink (https://t.co/OjlKPLtkA4), Mitsubishi (6503.T) Laser / Light Sources (EML): Lumentum (LITE), Coherent (COHR), Broadcom (AVGO), YJ Semi (https://t.co/qWTYoY2y6z), Etern (https://t.co/Rgl8i5e7N4), Sumitomo Electric (5802.T), Everbright Photonics (https://t.co/hrQbVE0QlT), Shijia Photons (https://t.co/HvJVCM7BMm), Source Photonics (Private), Mitsubishi (6503.T), Accelink (https://t.co/OjlKPLtkA4), Furukawa (5801.T) Passive Optical Components - Couplers / Splitters: FOCI (3363.TWO), Senko (Private), AFR (https://t.co/v8bWvYaSCp), Everprox (https://t.co/PgwoMVPleI), Lumentum (LITE), Coherent (COHR) Passive Optical Components - Filters: Shijia Photons (https://t.co/HvJVCM7BMm), Sumitomo Electric (5802.T), Lumentum (LITE), Coherent (COHR), Viavi (VIAV), FOCI (3363.TWO) Passive Optical Components - Attenuators: Everprox (https://t.co/PgwoMVPleI), Accelink (https://t.co/OjlKPLtkA4), FOCI (3363.TWO), Lumentum (LITE) Passive Optical Components - WDM: AFR (https://t.co/v8bWvYaSCp), Everprox (https://t.co/PgwoMVPleI), Accelink (https://t.co/OjlKPLtkA4), Ciena (CIEN), TFC Optical (https://t.co/fjsjeuQxcq), Lumentum (LITE), FOCI (3363.TWO)
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认为激光器环节是CPO供应链最被低估的瓶颈，拥有InP垂直整合等多项期权价值。
最近关于"共封装光学(CPO)供应链"的讨论很多，什么是最被低估的环节？让我发表一下我的观点： 激光器瓶颈（$LITE、$SIVE、$COHR）是目前接触光子学和CPO的最佳途径。 因为存在大量期权价值，这给了Lumentum等公司溢价空间。 具体体现在： -> 随着可插拔光收发器的出现，下游IP总可寻址市场(TAM)不断扩展 -> InP激光器晶圆厂的垂直整合，而非无晶圆厂(fabless)模式 -> 多道工序的垂直整合，例如测试甚至封装 把你自己想象成在经营一家公司，并快速推进到$100B或$300B的规模。 不要仅仅基于预测的收入和利润率来做电子表格模型。
英文原文
There's a lot of discussion around "CPO supply chains" and what's the most undervalued. Let me put my opinion out there: The laser chokepoint ( $LITE, $SIVE, $COHR ) is by far the best exposure to photonics and CPO. Because there's so much optionality that gave companies like Lumentum the premiums. With: -> downstream IP TAM expansion as seen with pluggable optical transceivers -> vertical integration of InP laser fabs rather than fabless. -> vertical integration of multiple processes eg. testing or even assembly. Treat it like you're running your own company and speedrunning it to $100B or $300B. Not just spreadsheet modeling off projected revenue/margins.
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Sivers成为CPO关键激光供应商，NVDA引发的产能瓶颈正驱动AMD等厂商争抢上游资源。
看到$SIVE成为CPO(共封装光学)的Tier 1激光供应商，这真的很疯狂。 这是我的预测/猜测与大致映射： $NVDA用$COHR、$LITE的产能（在他们新的20亿美元以上支出计划之后）。 早期2025年EML用了同样的手法，导致了今天的瓶颈。 现在，$AMD/超大规模云商正在争抢上游激光供应商。 因此，$SIVE + Win / $GFS成为可能的主要途径。 你可以从以下看出： -> $MVL CPO通过Celestial（Nvidia签了协议，但他们没有激光器） -> $AMD CPO -> Ayar -> $POET -> Lightmatter -> 其他项目（如Jabil 1.6T） 因此，Sivers/Win成为Tier 1尖端关键独立激光供应商。 这一点的一些暗示： 1. $GFS在其生态系统中将$SIVE / $LITE列为仅有的两家公开激光供应商。 2. Ayar将$LITE / $MTSI从其网站上移除，并将$SIVE提升为主要激光供应商。 所以其他所有人最终都选择了Sivers，因为$COHR / $LITE已经完全分配。 我的猜测是，随着架构标准化，许多二级供应商也会抢占溢出市场份额。 明年年初，考虑到$NVDA的瓶颈，这场争夺关键环节的竞争将异常激烈。 而这家瑞典小型公司$1.2B规模的$SIVE将处于这场竞争的中心。
英文原文
It's pretty insane to see $SIVE become a Tier 1 laser supplier for CPO. This is my prediction/guess with est. mapping: $NVDA ate up all the capacity with $COHR, $LITE after their new $2B+ spending spree. Same playbook with EML early 2025, causing the bottleneck seen today. Now, $AMD / hyperscalers are scambling for upstream laser suppliers. Hence why $SIVE + Win / $GFS became likely primary route to go down. You can see this with: -> $MVL CPO through Celestial (Nvidia signed a deal, but they don't have lasers) -> $AMD CPO -> Ayar -> $POET -> Lightmatter -> and other programs (eg. Jabil 1.6T) As a result, Sivers/Win emerged as the Tier 1 bleeding edge + critical independent laser supplier. And there's hints for this when: 1. $GFS listed $SIVE / $LITE as the two only public laser suppliers in their ecosystem. 2. Ayar removed $LITE / $MTSI off their website and elevated $SIVE to their primary laser supplier. So everyone else ended up going with Sivers since $COHR / $LITE are fully allocated. My guess is that a lot of the secondary suppliers also capture overflow as architectures standardize. But scramble for this chokepoint will be insane early next year given $NVDA bottleneck. And a small $1.2B Swedish company in $SIVE will be in the center of it.
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@MontagueCap CPO（共封装光学）一切都还处于极早期阶段。所有像$LITE这样的光学公司，从可插拔光模块超级周期发展至今，现在已达到数百亿美元规模。 CPO的规模将远超大量现有预测，而像$SIVE、MSSCorps这样的公司目前还在10亿美元规模左右。
英文原文
@MontagueCap Anything CPO is EXTREMELY early. All the optical companies from the pluggable supercycles like $LITE are now in the tens of billions. CPO will dwarf a ton of projections, and companies like $SIVE, MSSCorps are still in the $1B range.
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CPO市场将迎抛物线式增长，是最佳早期布局机遇
以防你们想知道我为什么对CPO（共封装光学）如此看好。比如$SIVE（激光器）、Shunsin（封装）、MSSCorps（良率）、Win Semi/$TSEM（晶圆代工）。\n\n"CPO市场预计从2026年到2030年将以142%的复合年增长率强劲增长（不含ELS）"\n\n"规模扩展CPO细分市场预计将在2030年前超过规模扩展应用，成为主导市场。\n\n未来几年将呈现近乎抛物线式的增长。\n\n许多像Sivers这样的厂商之前对800G可插拔光模块几乎没有实质性敞口，但却是CPO领域最前沿的激光器供应商领导者。\n\n这是由$NVDA和$AVGO驱动的下一代光学超级周期中最好且最早的机遇之一。
英文原文
Just in case you’re wondering why I’m so bullish on CPO. Like $SIVE (Lasers), Shunsin (Packaging), MSSCorps (Yields), Win Semi / $TSEM (Foundry). “The CPO market is projected to grow sharply by a 142% CAGR from 2026 to 2030 (excl. ELS)” “The scale-up CPO segment is projected to surpass scale-out applications before 2030 and become the dominant market. You have almost parabolic growth over the next few years. With many players like Sivers having no material exposure to previous 800g pluggable optics but are the bleeding edge leaders of CPO as the laser supplier. This is one of the best and earliest opportunities of the next optical supercycle for an architecture driven by $NVDA and $AVGO.
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分析CPO供应链中三家最有可能实现3倍涨幅的公司：SIVE(MC约$1.3B)、MSSCORP($1.2B)、Auros($210M)。
至于3倍涨幅的股票，在这些水平上我认为： 1. SIVE 2. MSSCORP (6830) 3. Auros (322310) 是我最看好的猜测。以下是我的思路： 1. SIVE：我真心认为他们明年能达到100亿美元以上的市值，他们是CPO激光器领域的绝对前沿，与LITE和COHR并列。 按130亿美元市值计算...关于可能的版图映射： 光子学领域：AMD CPO、MRVL Celestial CPO、JBL 1.6T、Lightmatter、Ayar、ALChip、GUC、O-Net (ELS)、POET。 太空与国防领域：通过YSS、RTX、ERIC、Bae Systems实现的Golden Dome项目。 硅光子学领域：AAPL（Apple Watch）。 这已经是非常多的客户了，而且还在持续增加。 他们总是可以通过IP收购向下游拓展TAM，或垂直整合来快速追赶LITE的600亿美元市值，一旦获得更多融资的话。 2. MSSCORP (6830)：CPO检测领域的垄断者，约12亿美元市值。 对CPO良率的100%垄断，TSM、AMAT、NVDA、LCRX、INTC等很可能都是客户。 "公司的目标是占据CPO检测市场90%的份额" 这基本意味着100%，只是他们不想引发反垄断担忧。如果他们守住垄断地位且CPO产能增加，很容易从12亿美元涨到50-90亿美元。 3. Auros (322310)：三星/SK海力士的供应商，约2.1亿美元市值，专注于混合键合(Hybrid Bonding)量测。 基本上专注于两类产品： -> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5周期，这是KLA此前在IR量测领域拥有垄断地位的市场。 ---> 目前正在三星工厂进行认证，下半年预计量能爬坡。SK海力士在升级到混合键合时很可能也会进行认证。 -> 薄膜厚度测量。 ---> 正在获得"主要本土芯片制造商"（三星或SK海力士之一）的认证，目标今年实现批量供应。 他们已经开发了十多年，终于要在下半年从数年的认证期转向两类产品的量能爬坡。 如果他们转型到量能爬坡阶段，似乎非常有希望在3倍至6.3亿美元左右，这在韩国市场中像是一颗未被发现的宝石。 当然，我不确定这些公司最终会如何发展，这全都是推测性的，但这是高置信度的供应链映射。 但凭我的直觉，这三只我自己持有的股票在这个水平上最有可能。
英文原文
As for 3x brrrs these levels: 1. $SIVE 2. MSSCORP (6830) 3. Auros (322310) Are my best guesses. Here's my thought process: 1. $SIVE: I genuinely do see them being $10B+ next year, they're the literal bleeding edge for CPO lasers alongside $LITE and $COHR. At a $1.3B MC... For likely mapping: Photonics: $AMD CPO, $MRVL Celestial CPO, $JBL 1.6T, Lightmatter, Ayar, ALChip, GUC, O-Net (ELS), $POET. For Space + Defense: Golden Dome via $YSS, $RTX / $ERIC / Bae Systems. Silicon Photonics: $AAPL (Apple Watches). This is just a stupid amount of customers and it's still increasing. They can always TAM expansion downstream through IP acquisitions or vertically integrate to speedrun $LITE's $60B MC one day once they get more funding. 2. MSSCORP (6830): CPO monopoly over inspection at ~$1.2B. 100% monopoly over CPO yields, $TSM, $AMAT, $NVDA, $LCRX, $INTC, and others are all likely customers. "The company’s goal is to seize a 90 percent share of the CPO inspection market" This basically means 100%, they just don't want antitrust. If they defend their monopoly and CPO ramps, can easily see this worth ~$5B-$9B from $1.2B 3. Auros (322310): Samsung / SK Hynix supplier at ~$210M for Hybrid Bonding Metrology. Basically pure play on two products: -> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5 cycles, that $KLA had a monoply over for IR metrology. ---> Getting qualified now likely in Samsung factories, H2 volume ramp est. Sk Hynix likely qualifying too when they upgrade to hybrid bonding. -> Thin-film thickness measurement. ---> Getting qualified now, with "major domestic chipmaker" (either Samsung/Sk hynix), targets mass supply this year. They've been developing for the past decade, only to volume ramp two products from years of qualification H2 this year. Seems extremely likely to 3x to $630M if they switch to volume ramp, feels like an undiscovered gem in the Korean market? Of course, not sure how they play out and this is all speculative but high confidence supply chain mapping. But off the top of my head these three that I own are the most likely ones at this level.
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AXTI 的上游与垂直一体化风险被低估
以当前估值推动 $AXTI 的主要是机构；做空它的散户很可能会大错特错。 如果 AXT 因出口管制而下跌，整个光子业务扩张也会受影响。（例如 AXT -> IQE -> Macom/lite）而且更值得担心的是别的问题。 如果把 AXT 10 多个上游合资企业单独拆成一家纯西方商社，它从战略角度看，价值可能会比 5N 还高。 另外，营收数字有误导性，因为这些是 TTM 合同，不是新签合同。像 7n 高纯铟这类上游材料，相比去年价格已经大涨。 这条供应链是垂直整合的，所以可能会像 NAND 一样，在有限基板下出现涨价；但不同于住友，AXT 除了少数环节（比如红磷）之外几乎包揽了整条供应链。 所以它比你想的更危险。
英文原文
It’s majority institutions moving $AXTI at these valuations, retail shorts might turn out terribly wrong. If AXT goes down from export controls the photonics buildout does too. (Eg. AXT -> IQE -> Macom/lite) and there are bigger problems to worry about. If you just split out AXT’s 10+ upstream JVs into one merchant Western company it would probably be worth more strategically than 5N. Also revenue numbers are misleading since these are TTM contracts, not new ones signed. All the upstream materials like 7n high purity indium has spiked immensely since last year. It’s all vertically integrated so there might be a NAND style price hike off limited substrates, but unlike Sumitomo, AXT does the entire supply chain minus a few like red phosphorus. So it’s more dangerous than you think.
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不建议做空 AXTI
我不是说 $AXTI 现在是值得买入的标的。 我只是说别做空它，因为它们（以及中国）在整个美国超大规模云厂商所需流程里，实际上处于功能性垄断地位。 而且如果他们通过涨价进行反制，事情可能会变得非常糟。
英文原文
@bc1aa1fa3932407 I'm not saying $AXTI is a good buy at these levels. I'm just saying not to short it because they (and China) are a functional monopoly over this entire process required by US hyperscalers. And it could go very wrong if they weaponize through price hikes.
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AXTI 不只是 InP 基板那么简单
散户空头真的不该碰 $AXTI。 我一直看到有人把 $AXTI 误解成只有 “InP 基板”，总是拿住友来对比，但我一直没出声。 这是错的。 它们实际上掌握了整个 InP 供应链 40% 以上，这也是机构愿意给它们融资的原因。 它们握有很多卡点，不只是 InP 基板。 正如海湾地区那样，削减大约 20% 的供应就会是灾难；如果再叠加另外 3-4 个卡点，后果更严重。 -> 所有原材料（铟、镓、锗）。 Vital 和 $AXTI（自有、金美）与中国公司一起构成寡头；而西方的 5N 等只占很小一部分份额。 由于中国（Vital、AXT）掌握多数份额。 -> pBN 坩埚卡点： $AXTI 也是另一个巨大的卡点（博宇）。还有信越/摩根等少数玩家，但这又是精炼层面的一个瓶颈。 InP 基板： $AXT / 住友在这里是双寡头，JX、$COHR 只占很小比例。 这里面还有很多其他工艺（比如红磷）处于中间环节（例如日本化学/理沙）。 这是一个材料问题。 $COHR 不能在没有 AXT 控制的所有上游材料和精炼环节的情况下，直接做出 InP 基板。 如果 $LITE 的 CEO 因为 InP 基板睡不着觉，那么 50 亿美元估值对维持西方超大规模云厂商的建设上线来说根本不算什么。 日本的上游材料正在被出口管制，而 AXT 把这些都牢牢握在手里。 所以总的来说：我看到很多空头把事情混同成 “只是 InP 基板” 了。 实际上是所有铟、镓 -> 精炼加工 -> pBN 坩埚，再到最终由它们与住友共同完成的 InP 基板生产过程。 如果 Vital 和多个上游卡点停止供货，下游西方 InP 基板厂商就会受影响。 AXTI 会变成一个小型垄断。 估值来自掌控整条供应链，而不只是连机构分析师都搞不懂的 “InP 基板制造”。
英文原文
Retail short sellers should really not touch $AXTI. I keep seeing people misunderstand $AXTI as only "InP Substrate" with Sumitomo, over and over but just never made a comment. This is wrong. They are literally 40%+ of the InP supply chain, which is why institutions are funding them. They hold MANY chokepoints, not just InP Substrates. As seen with the Gulf, removing ~20% of a supply is catastrophic, but do that with 3-4 other chokepoints. -> All the raw materials (indium, gallium, germanium). Vital and $AXTI (captive, JinMei) are the duopoly alongside Chinese companies. With Western 5N and others only holding a small fractional share. Since China (Vital, AXT) controls majority. -> pBN Crucible chokepoints: $AXTI is a another massive chokepoint (BoYu). there's a few other players like ShinEtsu/Morgan/etc, but this is another bottleneck in refinery layers. InP substrates: $AXT / Sumitomo are duopoly here, with JX, $COHR holding just a tiny percentage. There's many other processes (eg. Red Phosphorus) here too (eg. Nippon Chemical/Rasa) in the middle. This is a materials problem. $COHR can't just make InP substrates without all the upstream materials + refineries that $AXT controls. If $LITE CEO can't sleep at night because of InP substrates, $5B valuations mean nothing to the Western hyperscaler buildout stay online. Japan is actively getting export controlled on upstream materials, while AXT holds them all captive. So TLDR: It's not just "InP Substrates" that i see a lot of short sellers conflating. It's all the indium, gallium -> refinery processing -> pBN Crucible that goes into the final duopoly InP substrate creation process they share with Sumitomo. if Vital and multiple chokepoints upstream stops shipping, downstream to the Western InP substate makers. AXTI becomes a mini-monopoly. The valuation comes from owning the entire supply chain, not just "InP substrate creation" that even institutional analysts dont understand.