供应链分析
产业链结构、上下游与瓶颈环节研究 · 共 1315 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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GFS 首次直接确认 SIVE
$GFS 是不是第一次直接确认了 $SIVE…… 作为他们 CPO / 光子生态的激光供应商？ 这次是明确的激光架构纳入，而不是之前和 Ayar / Celestial 那种供应链映射。 你还能从这里看到一些其他主要玩家： - $FN / $ASX 负责组装 - $LITE / $SIVE 负责激光 - $ATEYY / $KEYS 负责测试。 目前还没有基于文字的新闻，因为这来自 $GFS 2026 年 3 月的网络研讨会图像式演示。 但在 $LITE 旁边那份很小的激光供应商名单里，竟然有一家市值不到 10 亿美元的公司…… 这确实很特别，对吧？
英文原文
Did $GFS give the first direct confirmation about $SIVE... As the laser supplier for their CPO / photonics ecosystem? This is explicit laser architectural inclusion vs. previous supply chain mapping with Ayar/Celestial. You get a hint of the other major players here: - $FN / $ASX for assembly - $LITE / $SIVE for lasers - $ATEYY / $KEYS for testing. There's no text-based news yet, since this was the $GFS March 2026 webinar image-based presentation. But having a <$1B company on the tiny list of laser providers next to $LITE... Quite special right?
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GLW 在玻璃基板上领跑
Digitimes：$GLW 领先 KCC 和 LX Glass 的玻璃核心基板业务。 “玻璃核心基板……是下一代先进半导体封装的关键。” 除了其结构性重要性之外，玻璃核心封装的商业化时间线似乎也在加速。我们已经接近 H2，2027 年大概就是拐点。 我在上游玻璃核心名字里确实有仓位，不过最近的新闻也确认了它的重要性。
英文原文
Digitimes: $GLW leads glass core substrate vs. KCC and LX Glass "Glass core substrates ... are key to next-generation advanced semiconductor packaging". On top of its structural importance, the commercialization timeline for glass core packaging seems to be accelerating as well. We're close to H2 and 2027 is probably the inflection point. I do have positions in the glass core names upstream, but recent news confirms the importance.
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欧洲半导体也在起飞
哇……欧洲股票也在起飞。 $SIVE +12.76% $SOI +11.33% $ALRIB +9.08% $IQE +6.3% 当像 Soitec 这种 40 多亿美元市值的公司一天涨 10%+，这大概率就是机构买盘，像 IQE 和 Point72 那样。 https://t.co/tjLBK9C766
英文原文
Woah... European stocks go brrr. $SIVE +12.76% $SOI +11.33% $ALRIB +9.08% $IQE +6.3% When $4B+ MC companies like Soitec go up 10%+ a day, this is likely institutional buying as seen with IQE and Point72. https://t.co/tjLBK9C766
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GOOGL ASIC 新闻对 SIVE 不够计价
我很惊讶 $SIVE 没有因为 $GOOGL 和 Marvell 的 ASIC 新闻而涨得更高。 甚至连 $MRVL 隔夜都涨了 6.24%+。 市场大概还不知道上游激光源到底来自哪里，对吧？ https://t.co/0Hgfo0dQLo
英文原文
Surprised $SIVE isn’t up higher from the $GOOGL ASIC news with Marvell. Even $MRVL is up 6.24%+ overnight. Markets still probably don’t know where the upstream laser source comes from yet? https://t.co/0Hgfo0dQLo
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Blue Origin发射失败导致积压，连锁延迟影响ASTS等公司未来收益增长，非无关紧要。
太空板块的$ASTS看起来正玩得开心。尽管Blue Origin遭遇了重大失败，X平台上却莫名乐观...(这对SpaceX来说是利好，顺便也利好$RKLB。)至于$ASTS，当他们的卫星还没上天时，确实会影响未来的收入确认。Blue Origin的发射大概会推迟好几个月，可能影响~400-700万美元？如果一家主要以未来增长定价的公司被推迟了，那问题就不只是一颗卫星，而是后续的一系列卫星也会跟着延后...这对未来收益增长的影响很大(因为看起来他们没能达到45颗的目标)。经过数月的调查，Blue Origin可能会被$AMZN亚马逊的Kuiper项目和国防部的有效载荷积压住。看来他们处于非常不利的境地，不得不依赖竞争对手SpaceX。这绝非一些人用那些弯弯扭扭的线图所声称的"无关紧要"，但我也不评价这是否是买入机会。
英文原文
Space sector with $ASTS looks like it’s having fun. Lot of optimism on X somehow, even after Blue Origin had a major failure... (positive for SpaceX and byproduct $RKLB.) As for $ASTS it does matter for future revenue recognition, when they dont have satellites in space. Blue Origin launches probably got delayed a ton of months, maybe like ~4-7M? If a company that is priced primarily by forward growth gets delayed. Then it's not just one satellite, but the subsequent ones ones as well... this hurts forward earnings growth a lot (since it doesn’t look like they hit 45 targets) After months of investigation Blue Origin will likely be backlogged from $AMZN Kuiper and DoD payloads too. Seems like in a pretty bad spot being dependent on their competitor SpaceX. Definitely not "immaterial" as others were claiming with their squiggly line charts, but no comment about buying opportunity.
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中美AI竞赛驱动半导体供应链全面增长，台积电、ASML数据验证繁荣。
不，继续全速前进。美国和中国两个国家正在竞速，看谁能先在递归自我改进中实现技术奇点。$TSM的财报显示大幅增长，供应链几乎未受干扰（如氦气）。$ASML显示创纪录的资本支出。OpenAI融资超过1200亿美元，因此蔓延恐慌至少还能再持续一年半。像Mythos这样的模型正以惊人的速度不断改进，从中国到美国，所有人都在抢购所有GPU来训练新模型并追赶。每个人都在抢购材料，供应链中那些以前很少使用的零件现在都有了来自AI的大幅增长机会。
英文原文
Nah, full steam ahead. Two nations in US/China are racing to see who can reach the singularity first in recursive self-improvement. $TSM earnings indicated massive growth + little disruption to supply chains (eg. helium). $ASML indicated record capex spending. OpenAI raised $120B+ so contagion fears are gone for another year and half. Models like Mythos keep improving at just astounding rates, and everyone from China to US are soaking up all the GPUs to train new models + catch up. Everyone is soaking up materials and little used parts in supply chains now have massive growth vectors from AI.
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上游供应链主要在海外
@MisterPariPassu 很多上游供应链并不在美国。 它们主要集中在日本、韩国、越南、台湾等等。通常在美国上市的股票，价格更偏向于按前瞻 12 个月计价。
英文原文
@MisterPariPassu A lot of the upstream supply chains are not in the US. Mostly concentrated in Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, etc. Normally US-listed equities more priced in at a certain point in time. It's just rarer to find an $AAOI, $AEHR, sitting around.
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在光子学超级周期中做多整条CPO/1.6T供应链，推荐SIVE/Shunsin/Win Semi/MRVL/HPS.A五只标的
在更广泛的光子学超级周期中，提前布局1.6T/共封装光学(CPO)对我来说是最具吸引力的投资。我对这个观点有很高的信心。这就是为什么我做多整条供应链（外加一个额外瓶颈）： 1. $SIVE - 他们的激光收入随着$JBL、$MRVL、Ayar、O-Net大幅增长。而且我确实认为CPO/1.6T将远超任何保守的分析师预期，因为$NVDA、$GOOGL等公司大力推动光子学架构。下行风险是多源采购，但Jabil选择Sivers是有原因的。当你比较$MTSI、$LITE、$COHR、古河电工等公司时，全球范围内真正强大的激光供应商屈指可数...它们的市值都超过100亿美元，然后你有这个类似小型芯片法案的瓶颈，市值还不到10亿美元。 2. Shunsin（6451）- 我不明白为什么Foxconn的光学代工厂（用于测试、封装和组装）的估值比$LWLG低15亿美元市值。考虑到他们通过Foxconn的光子学规模显得非常去风险化。$TSM的光学部门VisEra估值约50亿美元，但他们从第三代在2028年下半年才能扩大产能。Foxconn看起来明年就要开始提升产能。他们只是基于$NVDA CPO供应链在台湾的需求以低远期市盈率倍数增长，所有公开指标都指向产能扩张和极端需求。 3. Win Semi - 他们是Sivers扩大DFB激光生产的代工厂，以及$AVGO、SpaceX供应链等的代工厂。当我做供应链映射时，Win Semi在我看到的每个前沿供应链中都出现了。市场可能有一些东西没有定价。 4. $MRVL - 我觉得作为小型Broadcom真的很吸引人。他们今天与$GOOGL的潜在设计有助于2028年后的业务案例。但我关注的催化剂是$MSFT Maia的提升，发生时间是2026年下半年，并可能在2027、2028、2029年持续指数级增长。Celestial收购对他们来说可能是世界上最明智的决定。也许在下次回调或CSP时买入？ 5. $HPS.A - 变压器/开关设备是数据中心供应链中的商品和平淡的部件。然而，当瓶颈是2-5年，且订单积压增长超过100%...导致极端短缺时。自从我发帖以来只涨了20%以上，但我确实看到去风险化，考虑到大量订单积压的可见性（即使它是推断的，他们不给出确切数字）。我确实认为市场错过了一些东西，特别是如果他们成功实施价格上涨，潜在的毛利率扩张....同样，订单积压加需求只是为公司去风险，而且看起来像是去年设施扩张后的高增长复合器。 还有很多其他我非常喜欢的如$NBIS、$JBL、$RPI、$TSEM、$LITE、$ARM、$SOI、$AXTI、$IQE、$ALRIB、Fittech、PCL等，但我只是从脑海中随口提到5个从今天的价格...如果我要创建一个新投资组合。当然，与其他与AI供应链不相关的公司进行杠铃式配置是好的，但这些只是我喜欢的5个。
英文原文
Frontrunning 1.6T/CPO within the broader photonics supercycle is the most compelling investment to me. I have high conviction in that statement. Which is why I'm long the entire supply chain (+1 extra bottlenecK) 1. $SIVE - Their laser revenue scales aggressively with $JBL, $MRVL, Ayar, O-Net. And I do think CPO/1.6T will blow away any conservative analyst projections from how hard $NVDA, $GOOGL, and others have been pushing photonics architectures. Downside risk is multi-sourcing, but there's a reason Jabil chose Sivers. When you compare $MTSI, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and others. There's genuinely not many laser suppliers in the entire world... they're all $10B+, then you have this mini CHIPS act chokepoint trading at <$1B MC. 2. Shunsin (6451) - I don't see how it's possible Foxconn's optical foundry for testing, packaging, and assembly is valued at $1.5B MC less than $LWLG. When they look extremely derisked piggybacking off of Foxconn's photonics volume. $TSM's optical arm VisEra example is ~$5B, but they scale H2 2028 from Gen-3. Foxconn looks to be ramping up just next year. They're just scaling low fwd p/e multiples off of $NVDA CPO supply chain demand in Taiwan and all public indicators point to capacity expansion + extreme demand. 3. Win Semi - They're the foundry for Sivers to scale up DFB laser production. As well as $AVGO, SpaceX supply chains and others. When I do supply chain mapping and Win Semi pops up in every single frontier supply chain I see. There's probably something markets are not pricing in. 4. $MRVL - I find this genuinely compelling as a mini-Broadcomm. Their potential design with with $GOOGL today, helps the case past 2028. But the catalyst I was looking at was $MSFT Maia ramp, which happens H2 2026, and likely keep scaling up exponentially into 2027, 2028, 2029. Celestial acquisition was probably the smartest thing in the world for them. Maybe on next drop or CSP? 5. $HPS.A - Transformers/Switchgears are commodities + boring parts of the DC supply chain. However, when the bottleneck is 2-5 years, and you have backlog increasing 100%+... causing extreme shortages. It's only up 20%+ since my thesis post, but I do see this being de-risked given massive backlog visibility (even though it's inferred, they don't give exact #). I do think markets are missing something, especially with potential gross margin expansion from price hikes if they pull it off.... Again backlog + demand just de-risks this company, and it seems like a high growth compounder post facility expansion last year. There's many others like $NBIS, $JBL, $RPI, $TSEM, $LITE, $ARM, $SOI, $AXTI, $IQE, $ALRIB, Fittech, PCL, and others that I'm very fond of, but just mentioning 5 off the top of my head from today's prices... if I'm creating a new portfolio. Of course, it's good to barbell with other uncorrelated companies to AI supply chains, but these are just 5 I liked.
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Point72 才刚开始买 IQE
@marv_jones6 Point72 上周才刚开始买 $IQE。 这对机构来说还处在发现阶段。 之所以感觉像“晚了”，只是因为我很早就发过 thesis 帖。
英文原文
@marv_jones6 Point72 literally just started buying $IQE last week. It’s at the beginning of discovery stage to institutions. The only reason it feels “late” is because I pointed it out extremely early and it’s already up few hundred %. But no, it’s still early
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称$700M流入AI供应链股票，建议用基本面分析等待市值兑现。
哪有什么回调——$700M正流入$JBL、J($MRVL)、Ayar、O-Net和其他供应链。人们也忘了$SIVE是芯片法案(CHIPS Act)的受益者，后续很可能还有更多跟进。最好基于前瞻增长做基本面分析来推导市值(MC)，然后等待逻辑兑现，而不是盯着K线图。
英文原文
What pullback it’s $700M going into $JBL, $MRVl, Ayar, O-Net and other supply chains? People also forget $SIVE was a CHIPS act recipient with likely more follow-ups. Better to do fundamental analysis on forward growth to derive MC and just wait for it to play out, not look at swiggly lines.
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台湾不会主动伤自己
@miraclemaster07 不，我不认为中国会是台湾的问题。 因为美国会在军事上保卫台湾，而且也没人想跟特朗普陷入潜在的核冲突。 我们的目标应该是搞清楚这些上游供应链，而不是把自己绕进去。
英文原文
@miraclemaster07 No, I don't see China as an issue with Taiwan. Since US would defend Taiwan militarily, and nobody wants to get into a potential nuclear conflict with Trump. Our whole semi supply chains end up in Taiwan, the US won't just hand that over lol.
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Marvell与Google洽谈TPU开发，Sivers有望成为光子光源供应商
$MRVL正在洽谈为$GOOGL开发TPU（张量处理单元），涵盖两种不同的芯片型号。 如果谈判顺利，$SIVE很可能成为Google供应链的光源供应商。 尤其因为其定制ASIC（专用集成电路）可能推动Celestial IP在MPU（微处理器单元）架构中实现规模扩展（光子结构，Photonic Fabric）。这与$POET和Sivers两家公司的布局都相吻合。 定制ASIC需要数年时间，因此来自Google的实质性营收可能要等到2028年下半年。 供应商可能采用多元采购策略，但拥有Google作为潜在终端客户是一个超越2028年的结构性多年催化剂。 市场通常具有前瞻性。
英文原文
$MRVL in talks to develop $GOOGL TPU for two different chip models. High possibility $SIVE likely became the light source for Google's supply chains if talks go well. Especially as their custom ASIC likely pushes Celestial IP for scale up (Photonic Fabric) in the MPU's architecture. And this maps to both $POET and Sivers. Custom ASICs take years, so there's probably no material revenue from Google until H2 2028. Vendors are also probably multi-sourced, but having Google as a likely end user is a structural multi-year catalyst past 2028. Markets are typically forward looking.
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CPO 爬坡被 NVDA 提前
$NVDA 把整个生态都加速了，CPO 预期也因此提前了好几个月，就像 $ASX 看到的那样。 所以我预计 Celestial 的量产会比 $MRVL 自己的 2028 预期早得多。 我原本的 thesis 是，$SIVE 通过 $JBL 1.6T 这条桥梁，把量产订单从 2027 年以后往前推。 市场通常是前瞻性的。
英文原文
CPO expectations have been bumped up months with $NVDA accelerating everything in the ecosystem as seen with $ASX. So I expect Celestial to be delivering volume much earlier than $MRVL projections than 2028. Main thesis was $SIVE was $JBL 1.6T bridging the gap with Sivers into accelerating volume orders past 2027. Markets usually are forward looking
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Amazon 的 warrant 协议会带来放量
@PhotonCap 基本上每次 $AMZN 有像 $ALAB 2024、$AAOI 2026 这种 warrant 协议时，量产订单都会起飞。
英文原文
@PhotonCap Basically every time $AMZN has these warrant agreements like $ALAB 2024, $AAOI 2026, volume orders go brrr
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SIVE 的终端用户是谁
以防你还在想 $SIVE 的终端用户到底是谁： Sivers 激光 -> $AMZN（Marvell 的 8-K SEC 文件里有） Amazon 和 Celestial 之间有 “photonic fabric” 的采购协议，而这条链通过两跳关系映射到 Sivers 激光。 协议里 Marvell 的股份价值按 87 美元/股算，所以 Amazon 有很强的动力尽可能多买（Marvell 现在股价已经 139 美元以上了）。 这些量产订单对 $SIVE 最有帮助，因为他们体量小。 我只是想指出这一条关系。 但在 7.2 亿美元市值下…… 市场显然漏掉了 Sivers 作为未来超大规模云光学超级周期里关键激光供应商的角色。
英文原文
Just in case you were wondering who the end users of $SIVE likely were: Sivers lasers -> $AMZN (Marvell's 8-K SEC filings). Amazon has purchase agreements for "photonic fabric" from Celestial, which maps to Sivers lasers through two-hop connections. Marvell's share value under the agreement was $87/share, so Amazon is very incentivized to buy as much as they can (Marvell is trading at $139+). These volume orders help $SIVE the most out of this supply chain, given their size. This is just one-relation to Amazon, I wanted to point out. But at $720m MC... Markets missed Sivers as the critical laser supplier for the upcoming hyperscaler optical supercycle based on new architectural changes.
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台湾的封装与电网瓶颈
@aiizisw77940 我发了很多新的名字，比如台湾的 Shunsin，用来做光学组装 / 封装。 然后 $HSP.A 作为数据中心变压器瓶颈，未来一年大概率也会兑现（因为这类瓶颈是多年的）。
英文原文
@aiizisw77940 I posted a lot of new ones like Shunsin for optical assembly/packaging in Taiwan. Then $HSP.A for DC transformers bottleneck will likely play out over the next year (since they have a multi-year bottleneck).
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台湾/韩国/Foundry 受益面概览
简单给你个 TLDR，帮你省时间： 1. $ASML、$TSM 财报 = 前景不错。半导体 + capex 起飞。 2. Opus 4.7 + Anthropic 起飞。软件股就很惨。 3. 三星起飞，部分原因是 $TSLA 的 AI 芯片。 4. $UMC = 代工涨价。foundry 起飞。 5. 训练在中国起飞。H100 租赁价格上升，neocloud 也开心。 6. 氦气短缺 = 影响不大……我之前已经说过很多次了，但我不确定 $TSM 还要再说多少遍。 7. MLCC、电感价格 = 涨价。受益者我后面再展开。 8. “台湾的 OSAT 扩张可能会收紧全球测试产能并推高成本” 我最近做多了像 Shunsin（6451）这样的台湾 OSAT，有原因的。需求会继续跑赢供给，即使扩产也是一样。（cowos、sip、光学）
英文原文
Just some TLDRs to save you time: 1. $ASML, $TSM earnings = Good Outlook. Semis + capex go brrr. 2. Opus 4.7 + Anthropic go brrr. Software = sad. 3. Samsung go brrr because of partly bc of $TSLA AI Chips. 4. $UMC = price hike for foundry. foundries go brrr. 5. Training = brrr in China. H100 rental increase go up. Neoclouds happy. 6. Helium supply shortage = not significant... I've already said this before, but I'm not sure how many times $TSM needs to say this. 7. MLCC, inductor prices = price hike. Will cover beneficiaries later. 8. "Taiwan's OSAT expansion could tighten global test capacity and raise costs" I went long on Taiwan OSATs recently like Shunsin (6451) for a reason. Demand will just outstrip supply, even after expansion. (cowos, sip, optical).
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Anthropic终于强制KYC验证，建议美国AI前沿实验室统一推行以阻止蒸馏泄露。
我去，终于Anthropic听进去了并强制推行KYC验证。早该如此了，别再让DeepSeek、月之暗面(Moonshot)和MiniMax免费蒸馏Opus和其他最新模型了。（引用推文内容：今天Anthropic点名了DeepSeek、Moonshot和Minimax的蒸馏行为。OpenAI也面临同样的问题，被中国实验室薅羊毛。最简单的解决方案没人做：KYC验证。每个金融机构从$HOOD到$IBKR都这样做，以追踪资金流向（如Persona自拍/身份证验证）。同样的方法应适用于token流向。美国前沿实验室应尽快对最新模型实施KYC。我确信他们关心无摩擦增长，但这关乎国家安全，个人和企业只需完成一次这个流程即可。这是目前为止最容易实现的方案，一天就能完成。如果不这样做，中国实验室将继续寻找绕过方法。）
英文原文
Holy **** finally Anthropic listened and forced KYC. About time, stop letting DeepSeek, Moonshoot, and MiniMax have a free pass to distill Opus and other latest models. https://t.co/Ba8XBTIsnb
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批评别人误判为拉盘砸盘，不懂超大规模云供应链。
@Broasted_King @KobeKapital 哈哈，那家伙居然还觉得这是“pump and dump”或者有泄密。 他们想怎么甩锅都行，但欧洲那帮人莫名其妙地这么酸，真离谱。 尤其是他们根本不懂 hyperscaler 的供应链是怎么运作的。
英文原文
@Broasted_King @KobeKapital Lmfao that guy is regarded thinking it’s a “pump and dump” or there’s a leak. They can point fingers all they want, somehow people in Europe are extremely salty for no reason. Especially when they don’t understand how hyperscaler supply chains work.
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感叹本该买些，现在后悔它涨起来，因为它做 AVGO 激光模块。
@StrateGeee 啊，我本来应该买一点的……现在看着它涨上去有点后悔，因为他们给 $AVGO 做激光模块之类的东西。
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@StrateGeee Ah I should have bought some… I have regrets seeing it go up now since they do the laser modules and stuff for $AVGO
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看好 PCL Technologies 借助 AVGO 光子生态翻倍。
我其实没有持仓，但前面已经给订阅者做过一些简短 DD。 我预计 PCL Technologies（4977）也会翻倍。 因为他们在 $AVGO 的 photonics 生态里负责组装、光学、测试等全部环节。 我记得我在它大概 4.5 亿美元市值的时候就提过这点？ https://t.co/vmgilSKANV
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I actually don’t have positions but gave some slight DD away for subscribers earlier. I expect PCL Technologies (4977) to double as well. Since they’re doing everything in $AVGO photonics ecosystem for assembly, optical, testing. Think I mentioned this around ~$450M MC? https://t.co/vmgilSKANV
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详细拆解 Shunsin 的 Foxconn 光学封装/组装定位与利润率提升。
Shunsin（6451）。鸿海的光学封装/组装业务。 此前作为 OSAT 的毛利率只有 15-16%，但 CPO/1.6T 可能做到 30-35%，这会把整体利润率拉上去。 因为他们在 $NVDA 的 CPO 供应链里做更难的 FAU 光学对准。 和 $FN 或 $ASX 这些市值动辄几十亿美元的公司比呢？ 这家公司现在才 14 亿美元市值，我个人推演的 2028 年 forward P/E 可能会从很低的水平压缩到个位数，因为鸿海会把订单转给它。 鸿海体量巨大，而且还能帮这家公司去风险。 我对它很有信心，觉得很快就会翻倍。 只是我认为几乎没人知道这家公司。
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Shunsin (6451). Foxconn’s optical packaging/assembly arm. Previously 15-16% gross margins as OSAT but CPO/1.6T could be 30-35%, which brings blended up. Since they’re doing harder FAU optical alignment in $NVDA CPO supply chains. Compared to $FN or $ASX that trades in the tens of billions? This trades at… $1.4B MC with, fwd 2028 p/e likely compresses to single digits from personal projections, as Foxconn passes orders to them. Foxconn is massive. And de-risks this company. Pretty high conviction this ends up doubling soon. Just nobody knows about this company imo.
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认为富士康光学供应链比无营收试制公司更有价值。
@StrateGeee 鸿海这边是活生生的……$NVDA 的光学供应链，负责封装、测试和组装…… 居然比一个没有收入的 $LWLG 和 $TSEM 之间的开发试验还便宜。
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@StrateGeee Foxconn’s live.. $NVDA optical supply chain for packaging, test, and assembly.. Is valued less than a development trial between no revenue $LWLG and $TSEM
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质疑 LWLG 估值，拿 Shunsin 和 SIVEF 做对比。
抱歉，但我越来越确信 $LWLG 就是光子领域里的当前 $RGTI。 我完全不懂……他们怎么会值 18 亿美元。 鸿海的光学业务 Shunsin，给 $NVDA 做 CPO 的封装、组装和测试…… 估值反而只有 14 亿美元？ 而 $SIVEF 作为 $JBL 和 $MRVL 的激光源，前几天估值还只有它们的三分之一？ 感觉像是傻钱机构因为一份开发测试协议，买错了名字。 我没有持仓，只是觉得困惑。
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Sorry but I’m convinced $LWLG is the current $RGTI of photonics. I have zero clue… How they’re valued at $1.8B. Foxconn’s optical arm Shunsin, for $NVDA CPO packaging, assembly, and testing… Is valued less at $1.4B? $SIVEF, the laser source for $JBL and $MRVL was 1/3rd their valuation earlier this week? Feels like dumb money institutions went into the wrong name off a development test agreement. I have no open positions, just confused
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看好 Shunsin 翻倍，难接受其估值低于 LWLG。
@TD_btc24 我很看好 Shunsin（6451）翻倍。很难接受鸿海的光学封装业务估值还低于 $LWLG，笑死。
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@TD_btc24 Pretty confident in Shunsin (6451) doubling. Hard to see Foxconn’s optical packaging arm valued less than $LWLG lol
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建议看下一轮光子周期，不必畏惧已涨多的名字。
如果你对像 $LITE 这种已经涨了很多的名字感到不舒服，你可以去看看下一轮光子周期的曝光。 像鸿海光学封装业务 Shunsin 这种我真的很喜欢……或者 $SIVE 这种 1.6T / CPO 激光，即使在现在这个价位也是。 $SOI 也还有很多空间。 分几天做成本均摊也没坏处。
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If you're uncomfortable with names that already went up a lot like $LITE, you can try for exposure in the next optical cycle. Stuff like Shunsin for Foxconn's optical packaging arm i genuinely really liked... or $SIVE for 1.6T/CPO lasers, even at current levels. $SOI still has a lot of room to go. Doesn't hurt to cost average over multiple days.
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说瑞典本地投资者做空只会火上浇油。
当地的瑞典投资者都开始做空它了，真是搞笑。 这只会火上浇油，因为他们根本不懂 photonics / hyperscaler 供应链。 不过瑞典媒体倒是在帮西方资金做事……原本是本地散户持有的股票，最后只会被转手给西方机构。
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All the local Swedish investors started shorting it which is hilarious. Just adds fuel to the fire since they have a lack of understanding of photonics/hyperscaler supply chains. Swedish media is doing wonders for Western funds though… it was a local retail owned stock but it’s just going to get transferred to Western institutions later.
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说 SIVE 正在走向 LITE 路径，且有多重利好。
$SIVE 正在走向变成 $LITE 的路上。 过去两天里： > $JBL 确认使用 $SIVE 激光用于他们的 1.6T 光学收发器 > Sivers 从长期机构投资者（比如养老基金 / 机构投资者）那里融资 1350 万美元以上，降低了资产负债表风险 > $SIVE 计划在美国 NASDAQ 上市。 这走势也太疯狂了。 我还是觉得短期内它会冲到 20 亿美元以上市值。 尤其是随着股票从瑞典本地投资者转向真正懂 photonics 的西方基金 / 投资者。
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$SIVE is on its journey to be $LITE . In the last 2 days: > $JBL confirmation of using $SIVE lasers for their 1.6T optical transceivers > Sivers raises $13.5M+ from long term institutional investors (eg. pension funds/institutional investors), de-risking balance sheet issues > $SIVE plans to list on US NASDAQ. What a crazy turn of events? I still think it's heading to $2B+ MC in the near term. Especially as shares transfer from local Swedish investors to Western funds/investors who understand what’s up and coming with photonics.
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解释 Fittech 与 Shunsin、Win/Sivers 的供应链去向。
@KentTian Fittech 在 $TSM Coupe 生态里，Shunsin 是鸿海的光学封装。 Win / Sivers 是 $JBL、$MRVL，还有 Ayar（也许还有 AlChip 等）。 它们最终都会流向 hyperscaler，只是路径和终点不同。
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@KentTian Fittech is in $TSM Coupe ecosystem, Shunsin is Foxconn optical packaging. Win/Sivers is $JBL, $MRVL, and Ayar (maybe AlChip and others). They all end up to hyperscalers, just in different ways and different ones.
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看好 SIVE 与 Win Semi 受益于激光量产周期。
这正是我做多 $SIVE 激光生态加 Win Semi（3105）的原因。 下一轮激光大规模量产的架构超级周期，受益者是谁？ Sivers + Win。 尤其是昨天宣布 Sivers 正在为 $JBL 的 1.6T 光学收发器供货之后。 https://t.co/05wYF3fR0U
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This is exactly why I long the $SIVE laser ecosystem with Win Semi (3105). The beneficiaries of the next architectural supercycle for laser mass production? Sivers + Win. Especially with the announcement yesterday that Sivers is powering $JBL 1.6T optical transceivers. https://t.co/05wYF3fR0U