供应链分析
产业链结构、上下游与瓶颈环节研究 · 共 1440 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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看好 Shunsin 的放量和 Foxconn 绑定
今天对 Shunsin（6451）的影响非常看多。 它就是 Foxconn 的 SiPH 和 CPO 封装 / 测试业务。 -> UDN 报道上调了放量预期，且 Foxconn 已经开始向 $NVDA 出货 CPO switch racks -> CPO 产品正在 Foxconn 越南工厂生产…… 猜猜看哪家公司过去几年一直在积极扩建 Bac Giang 越南工厂来做 CPO？ 正如我之前说的，Shunsin 本质上就是被 Foxconn 直接带飞的免费硬核 carry。 我当时只是太早了，但现在看起来正是巨大增长曲线的开始。
英文原文
Highly bullish implications today for Shunsin (6451). Which is Foxconn’s SiPH and CPO packaging/test arm. -> UDN reported upward revision in volume and Foxconn began shipping cpo switch racks to $NVDA -> CPO products are being produced in Foxconn's Vietnam plant… Guess which company has been aggressively expanding its Bac Giang, Vietnam facility for CPO for the past few years? As I said before Shunsin is basically a free hard-carry by Foxconn. Was just very early but this looks to be the start of a massive growth curve.
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Win 也是光学敞口里的关键瓶颈
@LIWEI_TWCapital 对，Win 也应该算上，我刚才忘了。 它在光学敞口里其实被严重低估了，而且我觉得它会成为明年的一个瓶颈，因为他们在帮 $SIVE 做激光量产爬坡。
英文原文
@LIWEI_TWCapital Yeah Win should be on there too forgot about it. It's really understated for optical exposure and I see it being one of the bottlenecks next year since they're helping $SIVE with laser volume ramp.
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别拿 HIMS 的药和 TSM 的 FAU 供应商相比
@mrng2019 为什么要把 $HIMS 的睾酮药片，和 $TSM 的 COUPE FAU 供应商放在一起比呢。
英文原文
@mrng2019 Why are we comparing $HIMS testosterone pills with the $TSM FAU supplier for COUPE.
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列出自己喜欢的一串 CPO 相关名字
和 CPO 相关、我喜欢的一些名字： - $SIVE - Foci (3363) - $TSEM - Browave (3163) - PCL (4977) - $AXTI - Msscorps (6830) - $IQE - Shunsin (6451) - Furukawa Electric (5801) - $MTSI - Nextronics (8417) - $LITE - $COHR - FitTech (6706) - $GFS - $ASX - LandMark (3081) - $SOI 披露一下：我大多都持有，但不是全部。
英文原文
Random CPO related names I like: - $SIVE - Foci (3363) - $TSEM - Browave (3163) - PCL (4977) - $AXTI - Msscorps (6830) - $IQE - Shunsin (6451) - Furukawa Electric (5801) - $MTSI - Nextronics (8417) - $LITE - $COHR - FitTech (6706) - $GFS - $ASX - LandMark (3081) - $SOI Disclosure: I own most, not all though.
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LITE 被纳入指数后带动整个光学链条
@TomSzczypka $LITE 进了纳斯达克 100，资金流入会很多。 算法把 $SIVE、$AAOI、$AEHR 和其他名字都和 Lumentum 这个行业龙头关联起来了。 所以它们一起被带上去了。
英文原文
@TomSzczypka $LITE nasdaq 100 lot of inflow. Algorithms tied $SIVE, $AAOI, $AEHR, and others to Lumentum now as the sector leader. So they all got brought up together.
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分析Sivers作为CPO激光供应商的市场地位及垂直整合潜力。
我并没有说Sivers现在就应该被估值到100亿美元以上。 我说的是，如果Sivers在美股市场上市，我预期它的估值会在30亿美元左右。明年可能达到100亿美元以上。 因为他们很可能是$SIVE（$JBL、$MRVL、AMD、Ayar、els、Lightmatter、$POET等公司）的激光供应商，用于CPO或1.6T光收发器。 而且我高度确信他们正在与$AAPL合作开发用于消费类设备的硅光子(SiPH)技术。 根据高盛报告，CPO整体TAM（可寻址市场）在未来两年将从零增长到910亿美元。 Sivers向各大厂商供货，并从$LITE因受$NVDA产能分配限制以及2027年产量爬坡影响而停滞的溢出需求中获益。 然后他们只需要复制$LITE和$COHR的做法，通过收购封装IP或更多光引擎IP，向下游垂直整合完整的ELS（外接激光源）。 但首先他们得掌握激光这个瓶颈环节——而他们现在已经在做了。
英文原文
I didn’t say it should be valued at $10B+ today. I said I expected $SIVE to be around ~$3B if they were listed on US markets. And could be $10B+ next year Since they likely are the laser supplier to $JBL, $MRVL, $AMD, Ayar, onet(els), Lightmatter, $POET and many others for CPO or 1.6T optical transceivers. And high confidence work with $AAPL on SiPH for their consumer devices. CPO overall tam goes from 0 to $91B in the next two years from GS report. Sivers supplies to major players, and captures overflow from $LITE getting stalled out by capacity allocations from $NVDA and volume ramps over 2027. Then they just need to pull a $LITE $COHR then vertically integrate IP downstream by doing the full ELS by buying packaging IP or more optical engine IP. But that starts off by owning the laser chokepoint which they do now
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介绍 Nextronics 及其在 Nvidia CPO 供应链里的位置
我只是把 Goldman Sachs 的 $NVDA 供应商报告放出来。 有一家很有意思、约 2.1 亿美元市值的公司 Nextronics（8147），我跟着 GS 之后也建了仓。 它向 Nvidia 的 CPO 供应链提供 CPO connectors 和 Cage Thermal Modules。 它们也在 $AMZN 的供应链和 humanoids 里，顺带还做按摩椅。 我只是想分享一个有意思的想法（NFA / DYOR），我之后会做 BOM 分析，但在 Nvidia CPO 项目放量时，这相对市值看起来很有意义。 当然也有多供应商 / 被设计出局的风险，但 GS 多次把这家微型供应商列在 40 亿到 100 亿美元以上公司名单里，可能是有原因的。
英文原文
Just putting it out there with the Goldman Sachs $NVDA supplier note. There’s a very interesting ~$210m MC company Nextronics (8147) that I ended up taking positions on following GS. That supplies CPO connectors and Cage Thermal Modules to Nvidia CPO supply chains. They’re also in $AMZN supply chains and Humanoids. And massage chairs too. Just thought I’d share an interesting idea (NFA/DYOR), I’ll do a BOM analysis later, but it looks very material relative to MC as Nvidia’s CPO program scales up. Of course risks are multi-sourcing/getting designed out, but there’s probably a reason why GS flagged this micro supplier multiple times among $4-10B+ companies.
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列出被点名的玻璃基板龙头链条
如果你感兴趣，这里是被点名的“领先”玻璃基板玩家： • $LPK —— TGV Equipment • $GLW —— 玻璃材料 • $ASGLY（5201 T）—— 玻璃材料 • $NIDGY（5214 T）—— 玻璃材料 • $LRCX —— 刻蚀设备 • $DSCSY（6146 T）—— 切割设备 • $SMHSF —— 键合系统 • $ONTO —— 检测工具 • $KLAC —— 检测工具 很有意思，像我年初就提到过的 LPK，当时市值只有大约 1.5 亿美元，如今却被 Trendforce 等机构点名成了关键玩家。
英文原文
“Leading” Glass Substrate players that were name dropped if you’re curious: • $LPK — TGV Equipment • $GLW — Glass Materials • $ASGLY (5201 T)— Glass Materials • $NIDGY (5214 T) — Glass Materials • $LRCX — Etching Systems • $DSCSY (6146 T)— Dicing Equipment • $SMHSF — Bonding Systems • $ONTO — Inspection Tools • $KLAC — Inspection Tools Fun to see the stuff I’ve called out early in the year like LPK at ~$150m MC get mentioned as a critical player by Trendforce and others.
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再次验证 AXTI 的 InP substrate 瓶颈判断
还记得我去年对 $AXTI 的 InP substrate 瓶颈判断吗，anon？ IntelliEPI CEO（2026Q1 财报）： “Indium phosphide substrate shortage is a bottleneck for the entire AI infrastructure.” Digitimes：Taiwan’s IntelliEPI warns of severe indium phosphide supply shortage 我当时就说，随着 photonics 放量，下一代 AI 架构全面转向光学后，InP 会出现重大瓶颈。 这是我关于 AXT 这个上游 chokepoint 最准确的一次判断。 我通常会比市场早几个月，但方向上经常会兑现。 当我已经在这些瓶颈里赚了 1800%+ 的时候，我现在又在做多 CPO，押下一个大超级周期。
英文原文
Did you remember my $AXTI InP substrate bottleneck call last year anon? IntelliEPI CEO (Q1 2026 ER): "The InP substrate shortage is a bottleneck for the entire AI infrastructure" Digitimes: "Taiwan's IntelliEPI warns of severe indium phosphide supply shortage" I said as photonics ramps: There was going to be a major InP bottleneck as all the next-gen AI architectures go optical. This was most goated call with AXT as the upstream chokepoint. I'm usually a few months ahead of time, but they play out directionally. While I'm sitting in existing bottlenecks up 1800%+, I'm long CPO as the next major supercycle.
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认为瑞典媒体终于看懂 SIVE 的股权转移
是啊，我在想，瑞典媒体是不是终于意识到自己干了什么，才去看 $SIVE 的 cap table？ 现在瑞典投资者持有的已经远少于美国机构 / 投资者，而我们正站在下一个超级周期的起点。 本地持股还剩几个百分点，所以希望他们继续发负面文章。
英文原文
Yep I wonder if the Swedish media finally realized what they accomplished once they looked at the $SIVE cap table? Now Swedish investors barely hold anything compared to US institutions/investors and we're at the beginning of the next supercycle. There's still a few % to go for local ownership, so hope they keep posting negative articles.
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分析$SIVE股东结构从瑞典散户→美国散户→美国机构的演变过程。
美国/西方现在控制了$SIVE的大部分股份。随着高盛、摩根大通、摩根士丹利及其他美国机构进入。美国/西方46.8%：- 富达：11.5%（散户）- 嘉信理财：11.4%（散户）- $IBKR：9.3%（主要是散户）- 纽约梅隆银行：4.2%（散户）- 摩根士丹利史宾沙：3.1%（散户/财富管理）- 美国银行：2.8%（散户/财富管理）- 纽约梅隆银行：0.9%（机构）- 摩根士丹利客户资产：0.7%（机构）- 纽约银行：0.5%（机构）- 摩根大通：0.5%（机构）- 摩根大通证券有限公司：0.4%（机构）- 花旗银行纽约：0.3%（机构）- 摩根大通SE：0.2%（机构）- 摩根士丹利：0.2%（机构）- 摩根大通证券：0.2%（机构）- 美银证券：0.2%（机构）- 高盛：0.2%（机构）- 高盛国际：0.1%（机构）- Cbny-Rja-客户资产：0.1%（散户/财富管理）现在很大比例由美国散户股东持有（例如$IBKR代表客户，可能大部分是散户，部分是机构）。新增但规模较小的摩根大通、高盛和花旗银行持仓可能是对冲基金或其他试图建仓的机构。欧洲及瑞士：11.3%- Clearstream：6.2%- 瑞银瑞士：1.6%- Six SIS：0.8%- 欧洲清算银行：0.8%- 盛宝银行：0.6%- 法国巴黎银行：0.6%- Caceis银行/联合圣保罗银行：各0.2%- KBC/LGT/宝盛：各0.1%瑞典约8.49%：- Avanza养老金保险公司-4.76%- Nordnet养老金保险-2.73%- 北欧斯安银行-0.2%- SEB人寿国际-0.1%- 北欧银行-0.7%加拿大/英国/中东约0.6%：- 以色列第一国际银行-0.3%- 加拿大皇家银行-0.1%- 加拿大皇家银行-0.1%- 汇丰-0.1%特别感谢瑞典媒体替美国机构做了这些工作：西方现在拥有约58.7%的所有权。由于当地媒体，瑞典持股比例已降至8.49%。我想知道他们是否意识到自己做了什么——在吓跑当地投资者后，现在股权已转移到美国机构/投资者手中？西方现在在共封装光学(CPO)超级周期之前获得了大部分流通股。你也可以开始看到摩根大通或高盛等美国机构建立初始仓位（代表机构投资者），可能是在美国散户获利了结之后。这可能是在$SIVE达到某个市值门槛以满足基金授权要求之后。但很大比例仍由美国散户持有，通过$IBKR和富达等平台。（这就是我所说的抢先机构一步）摘要：$SIVE从主要：-> 瑞典散户所有权-> 美国散户所有权-> 随着美国散户获利或卖出，逐步转变为美国机构所有权（如果他们找到方法吓跑美国散户，就像瑞典媒体做的那样）。
英文原文
The US/West now controls majority of the shares of $SIVE. With Goldman Sachs/JP Morgan/Morgan Stanley and other US institutions entering. US/West 46.8%: - Fidelity: 11.5% (retail) - Charles Schawb: 11.4% (retail) - $IBKR: 9.3% (primarily retail) - BNY Mellon: 4.2% (retail) - Morgan Stanley Smith Barney: 3.1% (Retail/Wealth management) -Bank of America: 2.8% (retail/Wealth management) - BNY Mellon: .9% (institutional) - Morgan Stanley Client Assets: .7% (institutional) - Bank of New York Mellon: .5% (institution) - JP Morgan: .5% (institutional) - J.P. Morgan Securities Plc: .4% (institutional) - Citibank New York: .3% (institutional) - JP Morgan SE: .2% (institutional) - Morgan Stanley: .2% (institutional) - JP Morgan Securities: .2% (institutional) - BoFA Securities: .2% (institutional) - Goldman Sachs: .2% (institutional) - Goldman Sachs International: .1% (institutional) - Cbny-Rja-Client Asset - .1% (retail/wealth) Large % now owned US retail shareholders (eg. $IBKR on behalf of clients, probably majority retail some institutions). The new but smaller JP Morgan Goldman Sachs, and Citibank % positions are likely hedge funds or other institutions trying to build positions. Europe & Switzerland: 11.3% - Clearstream: 6.2% - UBS Switzerland: 1.6% - Six SIS: 0.8% - Euroclear Bank: 0.8% - Saxo Bank: 0.6% - BNP Paribas: 0.6% - Caceis Bank / Intesa San Paolo: 0.2% each - KBC / LGT / Julius Baer: 0.1% each Swedish ~8.49%: Försäkringsaktiebolaget Avanza Pension - 4.76% Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring - 2.73% Skandinaviska Enskilda - .2% SEB Life International - .1% Nordea Bank Abp - 0.7% Canada/UK/Middle East ~.6%: First Intl Bank of Israel - .3% Royal Bank of Canada - .1% Royal Bank of Canada - .1% HSBC - .1% A special thank you to the Swedish Media doing the work of US institutions: The West now has ~58.7% ownership. Swedish is now down to 8.49% due to local media. I wonder if they realized what they've done now scaring off local investors now that it's changed hands to US institutions/investors? The West have now acquired majority of the float before the CPO supercycle. You can also start to see US institutions like JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs building start positions (on behalf of institutional investors), probably off of US retail taking profits. This is likely after $SIVE reached a certain MC threshold for fund mandates. But a large % of it is still owned by US retail on places like $IBKR and Fidelity. (this is what I call frontrunning the institutions) TLDR: $SIVE went from majority: -> Swedish retail ownership -> US retail ownership -> gradual US Institution ownership as US retail takes profit or sells (if they figure out a way to scare off US retail like the Swedish media did).
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再排查 NVDA 架构变化下的台湾标的
@Leo66Gao 对，TWSE: 3324、TWSE: 3017、TWSE: 8996、TWSE: 2308、$VRT 这些都是我标出来的。 但我今天还想多做些尽调，以防 $NVDA 的架构变化会把其中一两个名字设计出去。
英文原文
@Leo66Gao Yeah TWSE: 3324, TWSE: 3017, TWSE: 8996, TWSE: 2308, $VRT, and others were the ones I flagged. But I wanted to do more DD today, just in case the $NVDA architecture changes might have designed or two out.
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总结近期半导体与 AI 供应链的多项变化
这是我对最近半导体发展的一个 TLDR： 1. $TSM 在强推 CoPoS - VisEra / 其他公司可能会比预期更早起飞。 2. $AAPL 选择 $INTC 做半导体生产，这是个重大变化，因为他们通常会选 TSM。美国制造继续起飞，Intel 继续起飞。 3. $NVDA Vera Rubin 最近据说对散热架构做了很新的调整。 “台湾的热管理供应商正在成为 AI 硬件生态里增长最快的板块之一” - 上个月的说法。 “Vera Rubin server 架构预计会推动数据中心散热和系统设计发生根本变化” 我之后会专门看热管理生态，也许该开始研究一下？ 4. 2D NAND 短缺在 Samsung、Micron 和其他玩家退出后继续恶化。 Macronix、Windbond 都在起飞，这对 GigaDevice 和其他利基玩家也有影响。 5. “大科技公司据称愿意出资帮助 SK Hynix 建 fab 和 EUV” 说明 memory 短缺严重到 Mag7 都愿意出钱，那 $MU、SK Hynix、Samsung 都在起飞。 6. $TSM 2026 年 4 月净营收 126 亿美元，收入同比增长 30%，半导体继续起飞。 7. Anthropic 需要算力 -> SpaceX。 这意味着算力需求极其强，对 $NBIS 等都是“BRRR”级别利好。 但很有意思的是，他们绕开了 Neoclouds，选了 SpaceX。 8. “SKC 将在今年年底前加速为美国客户量产玻璃基板” “提前于原计划，已宣布今年年底前推进” 像 $LPK 这样的玻璃基板量产玩家，以及 SKC 这类相关公司都在起飞。 玻璃时间线被提前了，真的 heavy brrr glass。 9. AI 服务器需求和 GaN 争夺加剧，电源芯片短缺也在加深。 也许是时候看看电源芯片瓶颈了？ 10. Adata 说 DRAM 和 NAND 闪存合约价在 2026 年第二季度都会上涨 40% 以上。 这对 $MU、SK Hynix、Samsung、$SNDK 等都是正面。
英文原文
Just a TLDR of recent semi developments: 1. $TSM pushing hard CoPoS - VisEra/others might go brrr earlier than expected. 2. $AAPL goes with $INTC for semi production, which is a major shift cause they normally go with TSM. Made in America go like Intel go brrr. 3. $NVDA Vera Rubin reportedly makes changes to cooling architectures very recently. "Taiwan's thermal management suppliers are emerging as one of the fastest-growing segments in the AI hardware ecosystem" - From Last Month. "Vera Rubin server architecture is expected to drive a fundamental shift in data center cooling and system design" Will cover thermal ecosystem later, maybe it's time to take a look? 4. 2D NAND shortage spirals after Samsung, Micron, and rivals exit market Macronix, Windbond go brrr. implications for GigaDevice and other niche players. 5. "Big Tech reportedly offers to fund SK Hynix fabs and EUV" - Memory that badly bottlenecked that mag7 wants to pay for it, so $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung go brr. 6. $TSM 2026 net revenue $12.6B for April 2026. Revenue up 30%, Semis keep going brr. 7. Anthropic needs compute -> SpaceX. So implications for compute demand is extreme here which is BRRR $NBIS and others. But it's very interesting they sidestepped Neoclouds and went with SpaceX. 8. "SKC to Accelerate Mass Production of Glass Substrates for U.S. Clients by the End of the Year" "the end of the year, ahead of its original plan, it has been announced" Glass Core substrates players like $LPK for mass production and other related players like SKC go brrr. Glass timelines moved up. heavy brrr glass. 9. "Power chip shortages deepen as AI server demand and GaN battles escalate" Maybe time to look into the power chip bottleneck anon? 10. "Adata said DRAM and NAND flash contract prices will each climb more than 40% in the second quarter of 2026" Another positive for $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung, $SNDK, and others.
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列出一串相关光学链条公司
@milesgillhespy Sumitomo Electric、Furukawa Electric、Mitsubishi Electric、$MTSI、$LITE
英文原文
@milesgillhespy Sumitomo Electric, Furukawa Electric, Mitsubishi Electric, $MTSI, and $LITE
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预计美国上市后股权会从散户转向机构
@Philippe45164 我真觉得这会在美国上市后发生。 然后股份会从美国散户转向美国机构。
英文原文
@Philippe45164 I'm expecting that to happen after US listing tbh. Then shares go from US retail -> US institutions.
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解释 CPO 前置布局下短期波动和做空比例
@TFillkcs80260 对，如果你在提前押 CPO 周期，波动会很大，因为收入还没真正进入报表。 我估计这一周又有大约 3% 的流通股被做空，所以现在可能在 9% 到 10% 左右。
英文原文
@TFillkcs80260 Yeah there's probably going to be a lot of volatility if you're frontrunning the CPO cycle since revenue hasn't hit the balance sheet yet. Think another ~3% of the float has been shorted this week so should be around 9-10% around now i think.
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说明 CPO 的真正放量在 2027 年，Auros 还在认证中
MSSCorp 也是一个 CPO 标的……CPO 真正开始放量是在 2027 年。 2026 上半年并不会有太多量，所以在那之前大概率会有波动。但我觉得，提前等在这里去抢下一个巨大超级周期的起点，还是很有吸引力的。 至于 Auros，他们给 SK Hynix / Samsung 供货，产品还在认证中。我的 thesis 主要还是等到 H2 某个时候的量产爬坡。
英文原文
MSSCorp is a CPO names... CPO really starts to ramp up in 2027. You don't really have any volume H1 2026, so there's probably going to be volatility up until then. But I think the time wait is compelling enough to frontrun one of the largest supercycles at the very start. As for Auros, they supply to Sk Hynix/Samsung and are qualifying their products. My thesis was mainly about waiting for volume ramp sometime to hit H2.
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SIVE激光器供应商客户覆盖多家AI/硅光子明星企业，估值对应的超大规模客户量惊人
$SIVE 向以下公司供应激光器：可能是 $JBL、Ayar、Lightmatter、$POET、$MRVL Celestial、Lightelligence、$AMD、O-Net/Enablence 以及其他公司。 这还不包括他们与 $AAPL 或 $AEVA 的硅光子(silicon photonics)项目，或者他们其他与CHIPS法案相关的工作。 以这个估值来看，他们所服务的超大规模企业(hyperscaler)数量相当惊人。
英文原文
$SIVE supplies lasers to likely $JBL, Ayar, Lightmatter, $POET, $MRVL Celestial, Lightelligence, $AMD, O-Net/Enablence, and others. Not including silicon photonics programs with $AAPL or $AEVA or their other CHIPS act related work. The amount of hyperscaler they feed into is pretty crazy at that valuation.
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解释为什么 SIVE 总被瑞典媒体打压，但浮筹仍在转移
SIVE 每天都在重复上演这种剧情，已经像 deja vu 了，哈哈。 这也说明为什么 Sivers 很快会在纳斯达克上市，而不是继续留在本地市场。 每天开盘本地媒体都会来一篇攻击这家前沿公司的文章，然后股价跌 10%： -> “CPO 和 CW lasers 没什么新东西” -> “Sivers 要去跟资金雄厚的 $LITE 和 $COHR 竞争，肯定会因为资本劣势输掉” -> “为了上纳斯达克不得不稀释 2.5%” -> “年报延迟很可疑”（其实是为了上纳斯达克） -> $SIVE 体量不够，无法放大和 $JBL 的关系并扩张。 最后本地瑞典人都在卖，西方投资者 / 基金在接手流通股。 在 CPO 量产前就让西方持有这家公司，显然更好。 纯靠瑞典本地去做一家前沿公司，感觉希望很渺茫，因为本地文化就不太行。
英文原文
Every day it's like this on repeat with $SIVE, it's like dejavu lol. Makes sense why Sivers is getting listed on Nasdaq soon instead of staying in local markets. New local hit piece on their own frontier company happens every market open, stock drops 10%: -> "CPO and the CW lasers is nothing new" -> "Sivers is going up against well funded $LITE and $COHR and will lose because of capital" -> "They had to dilute 2.5% to get listed on Nasdaq" -> "Delayed annual report is sketchy" (to get listed on Nasdaq) -> $SIVE is not big enough to capitalize on $JBL relationship and scale. Local Swedish folks end up selling. Western investors/funds end up acquiring the float. Better for the West to own the company before CPO ramp starts. Creating a frontier company purely from Sweden seems hopeless given local culture.
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解释 NVDA 对 IREN 的支持并不等于真正投资
$NVDA 什么都没投。他们拿到的是一个完全无风险的购买协议，自己没有承担任何投入。 这和可转债不同；可转债是他们借钱给 $IREN，然后按 70 美元转换。 很多人把融资结构的细节混为一谈，但如果他们真给 $NBIS 投了 20 亿美元，那就完全是另一回事。
英文原文
$NVDA hasn't invested anything. They got a completely risk-free purchase agreement without committing anything. This is different than a convertible note where they would loan $IREN money and to convert it at $70. People conflate all the nuances of financing structures, it's actually material if they put $2B into a company like $NBIS.
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强调 NVDA 只是给了无风险认购文件
@OrkunEC Nvidia 基本上只是给了 $IREN 一个完全无风险的股份购买票据，自己根本没投钱。 这甚至都不是可转债，因为他们没有给 $IREN 任何现金。 他们让 $IREN 用自己的品牌去继续稀释并买 Nvidia GPU，自己却不会承担损失。
英文原文
@OrkunEC Nvidia basically got a completely risk-free share purchase note for $IREN and hasn't invested at all. This wasn't even a convertible note, where they gave $IREN any money. They're not losing anything for letting $IREN use their brand to dilute more and buy Nvidia GPUs.
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认为 LPK 是玻璃基板超级周期的更干净玩法
$LPK 在过去两周涨了 80%。在大约 6.87 亿美元市值下，这成绩不算差。 它大概是下一个玻璃基板超级周期里最干净的玩法之一。 量产之后，每个客户可能要 50 到 100 台机器，2027 年的量产节奏会覆盖 $INTC、$GLW、SKC 等很多公司（因为它们已经拿到了大约 80% 的主要玩家）。 每台机器平均大概 200 万欧元。 仅仅 5 家玩家在 2027 年就可能带来 4 亿到 10 亿欧元以上的收入（甚至更多）？因为它们基本上是大家都在用的 chokepoint。按照约 67.6% 的综合毛利率看，等量产爬坡还是挺有希望的。
英文原文
$LPK up 80% in the last two weeks. Not too shabby at ~$687M MC? It's probably one of the cleaner ways to play the next Glass Substrate supercycle. 50-100 machines per customer at scale, with "start of 2027 as mass production" across likely $INTC, $GLW, SKC, and others (since they captured ~80% of the major players). Maybe ~€2M average per machine. €400M–€1B+ across just 5 players in 2027 (could be more)? Since they basically supply to everyone as a chokepoint. Off ~67.6% blended gross margins. Seems promising for volume ramp wait time.
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认为算法看不懂供应链映射，只会继续做空
大概率还是纯算法行为，但昨天又有 0.76% 的流通股被做空了。 算法通常看不懂很多供应链映射细节，比如 $AMD 和 $GFS 一起做 CPO。 然后在 $GFS 的图片展示里，$SIVE 只被列成两个激光供应商之一。这就是 alpha，因为你知道别人不知道的东西。
英文原文
It's likely pure algorithmic, but another .76% of the float was shorted yesterday. Algorithms tend to miss a lot of the nuances of supply chain mapping like $AMD going with $GFS for CPO. Then $SIVE listed as 1 of 2 laser suppliers in $GFS image presentations. This is called alpha though since you know something others don't.
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继续讽刺瑞典媒体对 SIVE 的恶意报道
我还在笑瑞典人有多讨厌自己的前沿公司。 他们天天给 $SIVE 写打压文章。 这篇就很有娱乐性：本地记者未经邀请就跑去一栋空着的 $SIVE 行政楼前。 因为他们无法理解 CEO 其实在硅谷，或者设计团队正在美国做 CHIPS Act 相关开发。再加上楼外面没停多少车，以及 CFO 不愿回答关于保密 hyperscaler 合同财务细节的问题。 于是他们又写了一篇莫名其妙的负面稿。 还反复写“做这种激光的公司不止一个，Sivers 远不是唯一一家”。 比如 $LITE、$COHR 这些 600 亿美元以上的公司。 又写早前那种“CPO 没什么特别，很多年都有了”的说法。 而 GS 的预测却是 CPO 在未来两年从 10 亿美元 TAM 增长到 910 亿美元。 他们甚至还把“Plans”写成引号，好像不相信 Sivers 在给 $JBL 的 1.6T LRO 供激光。 我认为 $SIVE 明年会变成一家 100 亿美元以上的公司，尤其如果他们像 $LITE / $COHR 那样把下游 IP 集成起来，多吃一点 CPO 模块 BOM。 他们根本不懂 hyperscaler 供应链、前瞻成长，以及员工数量不等于收入这件事。 当地瑞典持股向西方转移，这件事其实一直是好事，因为它曾经是一家由本地散户主导的公司。
英文原文
I'm still laughing how much Swedish hate their own frontier companies so much. That they write hit pieces every day on $SIVE. This one was entertaining: Local journalists show up to an empty $SIVE administrative building uninvited. Because they can't fathom the CEO is in Silicon Valley or design team is working on US Gov CHIPS act dev in the US. And because there weren't many cars parked outside + CFO wouldn't take questions about secretive hyperscaler deal financials. They wrote a random negative hit piece. By repeating "There are several who make lasers like these and Sivers are far from alone". Several like $LITE, $COHR, $60B+ companies. and reported earlier that "CPO is nothing special, it's been around for years." While GS projects CPO going from $1B -> $91B TAM over the next two years. Even put "Plans" in quotation marks because they didn't think Sivers is supplying lasers to $JBL 1.6T LRO. IMO, $SIVE ends up as a $10B+ company next year, especially if they follow what $LITE / $COHR did with downstream IP integration to capture more of CPO module BOM. Just don't think Swedish people understand hyperscaler supply chains, concept of forward growth, or the fact that employee count doesn't equate to revenue. Transfer of control from local Swedish -> West is always appreciated, as this was a majority owned local retail company before.
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认为 CPO 是对所有光子公司都成立的新机会
$LITE 原本已经把 EML 和现有 pluggable optical transceivers 的价值定价进去了。 CPO 对所有光子公司来说，都是一个全新的机会，也是巨大的 TAM 扩张。 这是一次重大的架构变化，像 $SIVE 或 $SOI 这种过去没怎么受益的公司，也会明显受益。
英文原文
$LITE was priced in for EML and current pluggable optical transceivers. CPO is a completely new opportunity and massive TAM expansion for all photonics players. It's a massive architectural shift, and completely new optical companies benefit like $SIVE or $SOI that didn't as much before.
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用 Coherent 财报再次验证 CPO 的时间线
$COHR 财报笔记： Coherent 的 CEO 基本上又一次印证了 GS 研究里的判断，CPO 会成为非常大的收入驱动。 转录里有一句："One of the most important long-term growth opportunities for Coherent"。 对 $SIVE、$LITE 和其他 CPO 相关名字的时间线含义也很清楚： “初始 scale-out CPO 收入预计在 2026 年下半年开始，而 scale-up CPO 收入将在 2027 年下半年跟进”。 “Coherent 正在和多个其他客户合作，并预计 CPO 解决方案会被广泛采用。” 这也再次确认了采用程度。 scale-up CPO 是全盘最大的价值驱动点，会在明年下半年开始。我们现在还在 2026 年上半年，正进入下半年。 所以现在就是在任何东西落到报表前，提前抢跑 CPO 标的的理想时点。 这就是我说的“alpha”——在市场还看不见财务数据时，把未来先定价进去。 市场通常会提前 8 到 12 个月看未来……所以如果大规模量产在 2027 年 7 月开始（也可能再提前）， 而现在是 2026 年 5 月，那一大段定价会在 2026 年 7 月到 2027 年 7 月之间逐步发生…… 也就是在 2026 年下半年到 2027 年上半年之间，先把量产协议和前生产爬坡这些东西价格化。 在市场真正开始定价最大量能驱动之前 2 个月提前布局，就是我所谓的在下一轮 CPO 超级周期里“抢跑”。 我们知道它会来。现在只是在等。
英文原文
$COHR earnings note: Coherent's CEO basically reaffirmed GS research note about CPO being a massive revenue driver: Transcript: “One of the most important long-term growth opportunities for Coherent” In terms of timeline implications on $SIVE, $LITE, and other CPO adjacent names, just confirms timelines: "Initial scale-out CPO revenue is expected to begin in the second half of calendar 2026, with scale-up CPO revenue following in the second half of calendar 2027" "Coherent is working with multiple other customers and expects CPO solutions to be widely adopted." - This also reaffirmed adoption level. Scale-up CPO is the biggest value driver across the board that happens start of H2 next year. We're still in H1 2026 entering H2 2026. So this is the ideal time to frontrun CPO names before anything hits the balance sheet. This is known as "alpha"... pricing in things market fully don't know yet by looking at financials. Markets are typically forward looking 8-12 months... So if massive volume ramp happens July 2027 (might get pushed forward again)... And it's May 2026, a lot of that gets priced in between July 2026 and July 2027... between volume agreements H2 2026, and pre-production ramp H1 2027. 2 months before markets price in the largest volume drivers is what I call "frontrunning" the next CPO Supercycle. We know it's coming. Just a matter of waiting.
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认为 LPK 是最喜欢的玻璃基板敞口
不，我现在最喜欢的敞口大概是 $LPK，因为它们给所有人供货。 我的意思是，如果你做多玻璃核心基板，Samsung、$INTC 和其他公司可能会更大一些。 SKC 可能是这个领域里市值最低的龙头。 然后如果它们跑通了，HB 大概会顺带受益，并且最终给其他玩家提供和良率相关的东西。
英文原文
No. $LPK is probably my favorite exposure right now since they supply to everyone. I'm just saying if people are long glass core substrates, Samsung, $INTC, and others are probably a bit bigger. SKC is probably the lowest MC leader in that space. Then if you see them succeeding, then HB gets a piggyback + probably ends up supplying yields related stuff to the other players.
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表示自己在 LPK 上的仓位最高
@tw_crypto_ 对，我在 $LPK 上的仓位最高……感觉像 HB / LPK 这种更上游的供应商，比 SKC 更去风险。
英文原文
@tw_crypto_ Yeah I have highest concentration in $LPK... feels like more upstream suppliers like HB/LPK are more derisked than SKC.
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认为做多 SKC 生态不算差
做玻璃核心基板的话，做多 SKC 生态好像也不算太差？ SKC（011790）—— 在 CHIPS Act 资金支持下，是玻璃核心基板的领导者之一，市值约 55 亿美元。 HB technologies（078150）—— 自动光学检测 / 良率，借着 SKC Absolics 做二次增长，市值约 2.5 亿美元。 SKC 的铜箔 / 电动车旧业务拖累似乎已经在见底。它的财报看上去像一团糟，但其实已经被市值定价进去，而且比那些有 60 亿美元以上稀释的美国公司要好。 HB 风险更低，估值也不高，而玻璃的良率会变得非常重要。 我在这两只上都只有很小的仓位。 本来还想再等一等，但市场看起来已经在把玻璃定价成下一个可能的 memory / photonics 交易。
英文原文
For Glass Core Substrates, doesn't feel too bad going long on the SKC ecosystem? SKC (011790) - Is one of the Glass Core Substrate leaders with CHIPS ACT funding at ~$5.5B MC HB technologies (078150) - automated optical inspection / yields piggy backing off of SKC Absolics at ~$250M. SKC's copper foil / EV legacy drag seems to be bottoming. Their financials seem like a dumpster fire, but it's kinda priced into MC + better than US companies with $6B+ in dilution. HB seems lower risk, low p/e and yields for glass is going to be pretty important. I do have very small exposure to both. Was going to wait a bit longer but seems markets are pricing in Glass as the next possible memory/photonics trade.
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MicroLED技术就绪度低，$SIVEF/$AAOI等CW光模块企业更值得布局
MicroLED在高盛报告所述的任何CPO相关批量增长之前，仍然感觉还很遥远。 Quantum Dot（如$ALMU/QD）甚至没有被提及，因为它的前景在数年之外。 在调整中，"溢价"会消失，但估值底部由收入支撑。 另一方面，$SIVEF或$AAOI即将进入批量生产阶段（<800万），直接处于CW领域。 我更倾向于在经过多年研发/扩张之后立即获得上涨空间... 而不是等待数年从研发到样品再到认证...然后才到达批量增长的转折点。 MicroLED的"技术就绪度"很低。
英文原文
MicroLED still feels far away before any CPO related volume ramp per Goldman Sachs note. Quantum Dot like $ALMU / QD isn't even mentioned since it's way way out by years. In a correction, "premiums" disappear, but valuation floors are backed by revenue. $SIVEF or $AAOI on the other hand are volume ramping soon <8M and directly in the CW space. Would prefer immediate upside after years of R&D/expansion... Than waiting years at the beginning for R&D into sampling into qualification... Then inflection point of volume ramp. "Technology readiness" is low for MicroLED.