供应链分析
产业链结构、上下游与瓶颈环节研究 · 共 1440 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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所以我就直说了：市值 13.5 亿美元的 Towa（6315）…… 它是 HBM4（压缩成型）上很罕见、活生生的垄断定义。 虽然今年到现在几乎没怎么涨，但像 $MU、SK 海力士、三星这些存储厂商都是他们的客户。而且每一家存储厂商的财报都在指向大幅增加 capex。 就连从 $TSM 的财报也能看出来，所有主要半导体公司都在经历一轮巨额资本开支周期，以满足 AI 需求。 三大存储厂商也都从 HBM3E 和 NAND 里赚得很猛……所以下一轮 capex 周期大概不会像上一轮那样了（意思就是花得会更多）。 像 $ASML 一样，这种东西周期性极强，但我想在未来几个月的 HBM4 capex 爆发里拿到敞口。 我想把这个名字和 $LPK（玻璃核心基板）一起放到大家视野里，因为它们都是功能性垄断。 但我确实觉得现在这个时间点刚刚好，毕竟所有机器供应商都在大幅重估，而它相对还是平的。 这也不算什么新发现，因为之前还有别的分析师和一些随机关注者提过这个名字，但希望我这次把时点抓对了。 （免责声明：我确实持仓，这只是我自己想法的 TLDR，请不要跟单）
英文原文
So just putting it out there: Towa (6315), at $1.35B... Is a rare, living definition of monopoly over HBM4 (compression molding). It's been kinda flat YTD, but every memory company like $MU, Sk Hynix, Samsung are their customers. And each of the memory company earnings signaled massive capex increases. Even as seen with $TSM earnings, every major semi is going through a massive capex cycle to meet AI demand. And all three memory makers have printed from hbm3e and nand... so the next capex cycle is probably not like the last (meaning a lot more spend). Like $ASML, this is hyper-cyclical but I wanted exposure to the upcoming HBM4 capex ramp over these next few months. Thought I'd put this name on people's radar alongside $LPK (glass core substrates) as a functional monopoly. But I do feel like this timing is about right while every machine supplier is having a massive re-rating yet this was relatively flat. Not exactly a new find, since a few other analysts + random followers had this name but hope I get the timing right. (Disclaimer: I do hold positions, this just TLDR of my own thoughts, please don’t copy trade)
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存储链条继续起飞
从 $MU 到 $EWY（SK 海力士、三星）再到 $SNDK，存储相关名字最近都在疯狂起飞。 除了三大厂之外，还有 NAND 或台湾的名字，比如南亚科。 现在也许是看看 Towa（6315）的好时机，用来捕捉 HBM4 上游垄断的 capex 周期？ https://t.co/VZPwzB0SFK
英文原文
Memory names from $MU to $EWY (SK Hynix, Samsung) and $SNDK are going brrrr lately. Aside from the big three, then your NAND or TW names like Nanya. Might be a good time to look at names like Towa (6315) to capture upstream monopoly capex cycles for hbm4? https://t.co/VZPwzB0SFK
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供应链不同层级不能混为一谈
@soscoder 它们处在供应链的不同环节。就像问 $CMG 的墨西哥卷饼能不能当成 AI 领域的 $NVDA GPU 替代品一样。
英文原文
@soscoder They're different parts of the supply chain. It's like asking if $CMG burritos be an $NVDA GPU alternative to AI.
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MTSI 拟投 IQE 4500 万美元
刚刚，$MTSI 计划向 $IQE 投资 4500 万美元，并进入董事会。 我说什么来着，匿名网友？？Landmark 早就产能过剩了…… + IQE 在光子供应链里本来就是结构性卡点，市值才 1 亿美元时就已经是这样了。 这笔交易也是为了锁定长期外延晶圆供应。 https://t.co/lS2TGFI6v6
英文原文
Just now, $MTSI looking to invest $45 Million into $IQE and sit on the board. What did I say anon??? Landmark was overcapacity... + IQE was a structural chokepoint in photonics the supply chain back at $100M MC. This deal is also to secure long term epiwafer supply. https://t.co/lS2TGFI6v6
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AAOI 也可能是潜在客户
谢谢提醒。 $AAOI 也有可能是其中之一，因为他们在 OFC 上宣布了一个 ELSFP。 他们通常都是自家代工，然后卖成品光模块。他们有这种可选性。 但我不认为这和 $SIVE 设计进 Celestial 的架构是一样的？我得再研究一下。
英文原文
Thanks for reminding me. It's possible for $AAOI could to be one since they announced a ELSFP at OFC. They usually just do captive and sell the finished optical transceivers. They have the optionality to. But I don't think it matches the same architecture that $SIVE designed into Celestial? Will need to look into it more.
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MRVL 可能直接向 SIVE 采购
@mpunaskar 这件事挺微妙的，不算完全正面，但也可能最终更正面。 我猜 $MRVL 很可能会直接向 $SIVE 采购。 直接对接超大规模云厂商，比如 Sivers + $JBL，要比中间再加一家公司正面得多。
英文原文
@mpunaskar It's nuanced, it's not positive but could end up more positive. It's very likely $MRVL just buys directly from $SIVE is my guess. Going direct to hyperscaler like Sivers + $JBL is much more positive than adding in another company in the middle.
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材料和封装要分开看
它们都处在供应链的不同层级。$AXTI 生产的是光子相关一切所需的材料。我手里还是有 AXT 仓位。 如果超大规模云厂商垂直整合带来一些细节变化，封装层的玩家可能会受影响。 但直接卖掉任何激光或上游玩家都没什么道理，对一些人来说反而是不错的买点。
英文原文
They're all different parts of the supply chains. $AXTI makes the materials needed for anything to do with photonics. I still have my AXT positions. Packaging layer players might be impacted given nuances of hyperscaler vertical integration. But selling off any laser or upstream player doesn't make much sense and it's a good buying opportunity for some.
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激光和封装是两码事
这显然不是一回事。激光和封装在光学供应链里是两个实质上不同的环节。 如果我的 thesis 失效了，我会像当初对 $XLU 和降息那样坦白说出来。 但我对 $SIVE 仍然非常看多，因为我还是认为 $MRVL 会为了 Celestial 直接从他们那里买，然后把 $POET 的封装流程垂直整合掉。
英文原文
It's clearly not. Laser and packaging are two materially different parts of optical supply chains. I would be transparent if the thesis breaks like I did with $XLU and rate cuts. But I'm incredibly bullish on $SIVE since I still think $MRVL just buys directly from them for Celestial and vertically integrates the $POET packaging process.
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LITE/COHR 产能大概率已给 NVDA
$LITE 和 $COHR 可能已经把大部分甚至全部产能分配给了 $NVDA，正如 Nvidia 去年对 EML 做的那样。 由于 Win 是 merchant foundry，想对它这么做更难，所以 $MRVL 大概率会直接去找 $SIVE，因为他们本来就符合 Celestial 的规格。
英文原文
$LITE and $COHR are probably majority/fully allocated to $NVDA after their deals. Since Nvidia did the same thing with EML last year. It's harder to do that with Win since they're a merchant foundry, so it's likely $MRVL just goes directly to $SIVE since they already fit Celestial specifications.
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MRVL 长期受益于垂直整合
@O_bhaina $MRVL 长期会从把封装流程垂直整合中受益。 我猜他们很可能只是达成一笔交易，然后直接从 $SIVE、$MTSI，也许还有 $LITE 那里买激光器。
英文原文
@O_bhaina $MRVL benefits long term by vertically integrating the packaging process. They will likely just make a deal and buy lasers directly from $SIVE, $MTSI, and maybe $LITE is my guess.
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LITE 更可能供给 NVDA
@adrian_jega $LITE 的大部分产能大概率是分给了 $NVDA，而不是 $MRVL。 Ayar 把 $LITE 从官网上移除了，而且在这之前他们主要是在 $SIVE、$MTSI 和 $LITE 之间多来源采购，这其实就是一个提示。 所以他们会需要别的激光合作伙伴。
英文原文
@adrian_jega $LITE likely has majority capacity allocated to $NVDA, not $MRVL. Ayar removed $LITE from their website and before they primarily multi-sourced between $SIVE, $MTSI, and $LITE which was a hint to that. So they'll need to find other laser partners.
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LITE 的产能分配影响 AM D/MRVL
这不算好消息，但也没那么糟。 $LITE 的产能大概率已经分给了 $NVDA，这也是为什么 $AMD 的 CPO（大概率）会去用 $SIVE + $GFS，我是这么猜的。 $MRVL 大概会直接从 $SIVE 买货，然后多来源，可能再加上 $MTSI，并把封装层在内部设计掉。
英文原文
It's not good news. But it's not that bad either. $LITE likely has capacity allocated toward $NVDA, which is why $AMD CPO (likely) went with $SIVE + $GFS is my guess. $MRVL will probably just buy from $SIVE directly and multi-source, maybe $MTSI and design out the packaging side of things in-house.
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MRVL 可能直接买激光器
很有可能现在 $MRVL 会直接从 $COHR、$SIVE 或 $LITE 采购激光器。 这只会让 Marvell 的 Celestial 路线图延后一些。 但我一直都预期封装这层最终会被垂直整合，只是没想到这么快。 激光 IP 要复杂得多。 激光公司为什么都值几十亿美元，是有原因的。
英文原文
Highly likely now $MRVL just buys the lasers directly from $COHR, $SIVE, or $LITE. It just causes delays to Marvell Celestial roadmap. But I've always had expectations on the packaging side of things to get vertically integrated down the road, just not this soon. Laser IP is much, much more complex. There's a reason why all the laser companies are worth tens of billions.
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POET 很可能被设计掉
@AD14977 我一直说 $POET 是最有可能在后面被设计掉的那个。 他们只是买激光器然后封装……而 $MRVL 完全可以直接去激光源头买，虽然这会让他们的路线图有些延迟。
英文原文
@AD14977 I've always said $POET is the most likely to get designed out down the road. They just buy lasers and package them... and $MRVL can just go directly to the laser source and do the same with some delays to their roadmap.
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POET 单一客户风险高
@satyadeva97 @PhotonCap 对 $POET 来说，这不算过度反应。Poet 之前很大程度上存在单一客户集中风险，虽然他们后来也开始接到一些更小的客户。
英文原文
@satyadeva97 @PhotonCap For $POET, not an overreaction. Poet was largely single source customer concentration risk, although they started getting other smaller customers.
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MRVL 可能自研中介层封装
$MRVL 很可能会把那个 interposer 封装 IP 变成内部能力。我原本就预计他们会在后面把 $POET 设计出去，只是没想到这么早。 他们完全可以直接从 $LITE 或 $SIVE 这种公司买激光器，然后自己搭建整个流程。 激光设计比封装难得多。
英文原文
$MRVL will likely do that interposer packaging IP in-house. I did expect them to design out $POET down the road, just not this early. They can just buy lasers directly from someone like $LITE or $SIVE and build the process themselves. Laser design is much much harder than the packaging side of things.
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MRVL 要把封装垂直整合
@BrokeBoyCap 哦，我猜 $MRVL 是在买了 $SIVE 或 $LITE 这类公司的激光器之后，把封装流程垂直整合掉。 我之前说的就是这个，后面那一层比上游激光容易多了。
英文原文
@BrokeBoyCap Oh, I'm guessing $MRVL is vertically integrating the packaging process after buying the lasers from someone like $SIVE or $LITE. That's what I said earlier it's a lot easier to do that layer than upstream lasers.
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Towa 被市场忽略了
@reallldealll 我觉得市场忽略了 Towa，因为你们这些存储厂商都在创纪录地增加 capex。 https://t.co/iVmufEGXF8
英文原文
@reallldealll I think markets missed Towa given record capex spend from all your memory makers https://t.co/iVmufEGXF8
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欧洲和日本的垄断都在起飞
像 $LPK 这种欧洲“垄断”（玻璃核心基板）最近也在一路起飞。 $ALRIB 技术上是双寡头，但也在这条线上……（量子 / MBE） 日本那边也有像 Towa 这种（HBM4 / 压缩成型）我持有的名字。 通常垄断会拿到更高倍数。 我之后会慢慢提到更多，只是得先把它们都找出来。
英文原文
European “monopolies” like $LPK (Glass Core Substrates) have also been going brrr lately. $ALRIB is technically a duopoly but it’s there too… (Quantum / MBE) Then there’s some over in Japan like Towa for (HBM4/compression molding) too that I own. Usually monopolies get higher multiples. I'll mention some more over time, just gotta find them all.
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SIVE 可能是苹果供应链关键
现在很明显，$SIVE 很可能就是 $AAPL 的硅光“圣杯”供应商…… 市场只是还不知道而已（这就叫 Alpha）。 如果你想知道怎么把 Apple 映射到 Sivers： > “美国财富 100 强”客户。 > 每年 5000 万台规模的 RFQ（报价请求）。 > Apple 2022 年大约卖了 5390 万块 Apple Watch，年销量通常在 3800 万到 5000 万台之间。 > $SIVE / Carnegie research 发布了 135 个波长架构，这和 Apple 的应用规格匹配。 真的……全世界还有哪个美国财富 100 强公司能这么轻松地一年做 5000 万台消费穿戴设备？就连三星也就是 1000 万到 1500 万台。 这刚好和激光架构和应用场景对应上。 $SIVE 在 X 上还暗示过来自开发时间线的量产爬坡，我猜那是苹果（H2 2027 爬坡或 H1 2028），但也可能是 Ayar 或 Jabil。
英文原文
It's pretty clear by now that $SIVE is the likely holy grail silicon photonics supplier for $AAPL... Markets just don't know about it (this is called Alpha). If you're curious how to map Apple to Sivers: > "US Fortune 100" customer. > RFQ (request for quote) for 50 MILLION units a year. > Apple sold roughly 53.9 million Apple Watches in 2022 and averages between 38m-50m units annually > $SIVE / Carnegie research released 135 Wavelength arechitectures, which matches Apple application specifications. literally... what other US Fortune 100 company in world can casually produce 50 million units of consumer wearables a year? Even Samsung does 10-15M units. That coincidentally matches with the laser architecture and applications. $SIVE on their X did tease volume ramp from development timelines, which I guessed was Apple (H2 2027 ramp or H1 2028), but could be Ayar or Jabil.
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CPU 热度盖过了存储
现在市场都在盯着 CPU，差点把存储给忘了。 但……SK 海力士、$MU、三星最近都在提高 capex，而且三星最近还开始了 HBM4 生产。 $TSM 也释放了全行业创纪录 capex 的信号。 但就像 $LPK 在玻璃核心基板上的逻辑一样…… HBM 阵营里其实也有不少结构性垄断，是市场可能忘掉了的，尤其是在日本这些地方。 它们大概率会从当前的 HBM4 capex 周期里受益。 韩国那边，像 Hanmi Semi（KRX: 042700）今天都涨了 27.6%+，所以我猜全球其他公司也很快会跟上。
英文原文
Markets are looking at CPUs right now and kinda forgot about memory. But... there's increased capex spend with Sk Hynix, $MU, Samsung around now, with Samsung starting HMB4 production recently. $TSM also signaled record capex across the board. But just like $LPK in glass core substrates... There's a decent amount of structural monopolies over in the HBM camp markets that I'm thinking about in places like Japan. That markets may have forgotten? They would largely benefit from current HBM4 capex cycles. Over in Korea, things like Hanmi Semi (KRX: 042700) have been taking off, up 27.6%+ today, so I'd guess the other companies around the world might play catchup soon.
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CPO / 玻璃基板 / 光学测试分工
@wdh37 $SIVE 用于 CPO / 1.6T 激光 $LPK 用于玻璃核心基板 Shunsin 用于光学测试 / 封装。 我也喜欢很多别的名字，比如 $HPS.A 或 $SOI。
英文原文
@wdh37 $SIVE for CPO/1.6T lasers $LPK for glass core substrates Shunsin for optical test/packaging. Many others I like though like $HPS.A or $SOI.
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AI 相关供应链全面拥堵
最近新闻和瓶颈的 TLDR，全部都在起飞： 1. CPU 瓶颈 - $INTC CEO 说 AI 推理把 CPU 比例从 1:8 推到了 1:1。 CPU 起飞（$AMD、Intel、$ARM）-> $AMAT / $TSM / $KLAC 等也跟着起飞。 2. PGME / PGMEA 短缺。DuPont、Shiny Chemical、Daxin、San Fu、$DOW 等都要起飞？ 光刻胶瓶颈也起飞？ 3. 微控制器潜在瓶颈 + 涨价（Arterytek / Arterychip）正在压缩 AI 产能。 MCU 公司可能也要起飞？ 4. 总统本周援引了《国防生产法》，里面包括： - 变压器 - 输电组件 - 先进导体 - 电力电子 - 变电站 - 高压断路器 - 保护继电器、 电容组 - 电气硅钢 这些都被称为“严重短缺”。像 $AMSC、$PLPC、$POWL、$VICR、$ATKR、$HPS.A 之类的也要起飞。 5. $GOOGL 在扩容新的 TPU 服务器。谷歌把 AI 芯片拆成训练 TPU 和推理 TPU。 台湾很开心。联发科等也要起飞？ 6. 三星、Kingston 把 SSD 价格上调了 10% 以上。 SSD 价格还会继续起飞？ 7. T-玻璃玻纤短缺还在恶化？Nittobo 等也继续起飞？ 8. 用于蚀刻电路和阻燃的关键材料溴，价格已经涨到每公吨 12,000 美元。 以色列的 ICL Group 似乎掌控了全球 40% 的供应？ 我对这个不算特别熟，但也有点可疑的起飞？ 9. “外延厂 Landmark Optoelectronics 报告称产量仍远低于客户需求”。 嗯 $IQE 和其他公司也要起飞？ 10. “AI 数据中心碰到互连限制，正在推高光模块需求”。“瓶颈不再只是算力，而是算力如何连接。” 来自 $AAOI、$LITE、$COHR、Innolight 等的光子链条继续起飞？下一代来自 $SIVE、$POET、$MRVL、Win Semi 等也起飞？ 基本上就是 AI 半导体供应链全面起飞，因为 AI 超大规模云厂商需求带来了到处都是的短缺。
英文原文
TLDR of recent news + bottlenecks that go brr: 1. CPU bottleneck - $INTC CEO said AI inference pushed CPU Ratio From 1:8 to 1:1. CPUs go brr ( $AMD, Intel, $ARM) -> $AMAT / $TSM / $KLAC, etc. go brr. 2. PGME / PGMEA shortage. DuPont, Shiny Chemical, Daxin, San Fu, $DOW and others go brr? Photoresist bottleneck go brr? 3. Microcontroller potential bottleneck + price hikes (Arterytek/Arterychip) was weighing price hikes on AI capacity squeezes. MCU companies potentially go brr? 4. President invoked the "Defense Production Act" this week, it included: -Transformers - transmission components - advanced conductors - power electronics - substations - high-voltage circuit breakers - protective relays, capacitor banks - electrical core steel As "severe shortages". Stuff like $AMSC, $PLPC, $POWL, $VICR, $ATKR, $HPS.A go brr. 5. $GOOGL ramps new TPU servers. Google splits AI chips into training and inference TPUs. Taiwan happy. Mediatek and others go brr? 6. Samsung, Kingston lift SSD prices by over 10%. SSD prices keep going brrr? 7. T-glass fiberglass shortages keep getting worse? Nittobo and others keep going brrr? 8. Bromine, essential for etching circuits and flame retardancy, has surged to $12,000 per metric ton. ICL Group in Israel apparently controls 40% of the global supply? Not as familiar with this but questionable brrr? 9. "Epitaxy manufacturer LandMark Optoelectronics reporting output still far below customer needs". Uhh $IQE and others go brr? 10. "AI data centers hit interconnect limits, boosting optical module demand". "the bottleneck is no longer computing power alone, but how that power is connected." Photonics from $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR, Innolight and others keep going brr? next gen from $SIVE, $POET, $MRVL, Win Semi and others go brr? Basically AI semi supply chains go brr because there's widespread shortages everywhere due to AI hyperscaler demand.
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Win Semi 让 SIVE 放量去风险
@Sopcaja 不，因为 $SIVE 的量产爬坡已经被 Win Semi 去风险了，这是我另一个多头。 Win 是 $AVGO 以及现有 SpaceX / 超大规模云厂商供应链的代工厂，所以它非常可靠。
英文原文
@Sopcaja No, because $SIVE volume ramp is de-risked by Win Semi, my other long. Win is the foundry for $AVGO and existing SpaceX/Hyperscaler supply chains, so it's heavily dependable.
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ASX 加速 CPO
@Quantrarian52 对！我也看好 $ASX？而且他们的报告已经把 CPO 加速判断推到 2026 年下半年。
英文原文
@Quantrarian52 I’m a fan of $ASX? And converted their reports over accelerating CPO to H2 2026.
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Shunsin 会在未来一年跑赢
@GeorgeMakro91 对！我短期时间框架上也会判断失误。 我 4 月 12 日提到 Shunsin，也就是 13 天前，当时把它看作富士康的 CPO 光学 / 测试业务。我对那笔也判断错了（sadge），但我预计它未来一年会跑赢。
英文原文
@GeorgeMakro91 Yep! I get definitely get things wrong on short term timeframes too. I mentioned Shunsin April 12th, so 13 days ago as Foxconn's CPO optical/testing arm. I'm down too on that (sadge), but I expect it to outperform over the next year.
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上游卡点还没被完全梳理
这是真的。我不认为美国已经把所有上游卡点都完全梳理出来了。 这也是为什么中国还能逐步拿到那些美国超大规模云厂商所需的不同垄断，并且在过程中慢慢拿走 IP。 散户持股其实是防止敌意收购和外部对手控制的好办法。
英文原文
It’s true. I don’t think US completely mapped out all the upstream chokepoints yet. Which is why China was still able to acquire different monopolies required by US hyperscalers and steal IP over time. Retail ownership is a great way to prevent hostile takeovers and control from foreign adversaries.
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变压器/开关设备短缺会持续
@nodeflowsol 变压器 / 开关设备的瓶颈大概会持续 1.5 到 5 年……而且几天前它们刚被认定为国家安全风险，随后总统也援引了《国防生产法》。 这些公司会因为联邦资金获得创纪录的 capex 流入和产能扩张。
英文原文
@nodeflowsol Transformer/switchgear bottlenecks are like 1.5-5 years… and it was designated as a national security risk few days ago + got the defense production act invoked by the President. Lot of these players will get record inflows for capex + capacity growth from federal funding.
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光子链条整体都在涨
光子学起飞。 $MXL +76.2%（哈哈） $AAOI +15.03% $SIVE +12.69% $AEHR +7.07% $SOI +6.19% $LITE +4.96% 希望你没有卖掉以后去追别的卡点，匿名网友？ https://t.co/Ft2p94bDWR
英文原文
Photonics go brrr. $MXL +76.2% (lol) $AAOI +15.03% $SIVE +12.69% $AEHR +7.07% $SOI +6.19% $LITE +4.96% Hope you didn’t sell and try and chase other bottlenecks anon? https://t.co/Ft2p94bDWR
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光子与存储都在加速
谁会想到把 Tangerine Peel 风格公司给资金…… 然后去做空光子和存储里增长最快的名字？ $SNDK 和 $AAOI 最近都在疯狂上涨。 我也看到像 AAOI 这样的名字会继续增长，因为光模块和美国制造供应链都在扩张。
英文原文
Who thought it was a good idea to give Tangerine Peel inspired companies the funds… To short the fastest growing names in photonics and memory? $SNDK and $AAOI have been on a hyperbolic run. And I see names like AAOI continuing to grow as optical transceiver + Made in America supply chains grow.