· 供应链分析

认为 LPK 是玻璃基板超级周期的更干净玩法

涉及标的:

中文翻译

$LPK 在过去两周涨了 80%。在大约 6.87 亿美元市值下,这成绩不算差。 它大概是下一个玻璃基板超级周期里最干净的玩法之一。 量产之后,每个客户可能要 50 到 100 台机器,2027 年的量产节奏会覆盖 $INTC、$GLW、SKC 等很多公司(因为它们已经拿到了大约 80% 的主要玩家)。 每台机器平均大概 200 万欧元。 仅仅 5 家玩家在 2027 年就可能带来 4 亿到 10 亿欧元以上的收入(甚至更多)?因为它们基本上是大家都在用的 chokepoint。按照约 67.6% 的综合毛利率看,等量产爬坡还是挺有希望的。

英文原文

$LPK up 80% in the last two weeks. Not too shabby at ~$687M MC? It's probably one of the cleaner ways to play the next Glass Substrate supercycle. 50-100 machines per customer at scale, with "start of 2027 as mass production" across likely $INTC, $GLW, SKC, and others (since they captured ~80% of the major players). Maybe ~€2M average per machine. €400M–€1B+ across just 5 players in 2027 (could be more)? Since they basically supply to everyone as a chokepoint. Off ~67.6% blended gross margins. Seems promising for volume ramp wait time.

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