供应链分析
产业链结构、上下游与瓶颈环节研究 · 共 1440 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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Rockley 退出后 SIVE 补位
@veggiepoultry @StormDirac Rockley 掉下去了，这很可能就是 $SIVE 成为 $AAPL 供应商的原因。
英文原文
@veggiepoultry @StormDirac Rockley went down, which is likely the reason why $SIVE became the $AAPL supplier.
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AAPL 是量产爬坡的暗示客户
@Embezzl3r 对，这么看确实合理，把 $AAPL 看成他们暗示过的量产爬坡超大规模云客户。
英文原文
@Embezzl3r Yeah makes sense about seeing their reactions to $AAPL as their hinted hyperscaler customer for volume ramp.
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META 可能是终端客户
@xm_build 这甚至都算不上泄密…… 你知道 $SIVE 在给 $JBL 的 1.6T LRO 供货，而当你指出 $META 很可能是最终终端客户时（因为 Meta 是 $INTC 的硅光客户，而 Jabil 已经收购了这个链条）， 人们就会生气，然后开始做空。这个文化挺有意思的。
英文原文
@xm_build It's not even leaks though... You know $SIVE is supplying to $JBL 1.6T LRO and when you point out $META is the likely end user (because Meta is the $INTC SiPH customer Jabil acquired). People get upset and start shorting. It's an amusing culture.
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把 SIVE 激光供应链映射到各家客户
我现在已经对瑞典文化感到很有趣了。 当有人把 $SIVE 激光的供应链映射到下面这些名字时，他们的散户 / 记者每天都在哭： -> $MRVL CPO -> $AMD CPO -> $JBL 1.6T LRO -> $NVDA -> $AMZN、$META、$GOOGL、$MSFT -> 腾讯、百度、阿里用于 ELS。 然后他们还会哭得更厉害…… 当别人展示 $AAPL 是 Sivers 激光器的秘密超大规模云客户时（因为苹果下一代 Apple Watch 开发需要每年 5000 万台产能）。 给超大规模云厂商供货……会让本地人难受成这样，甚至想自毁吗？ 有个“瑞典专业人士”出来说 CPO 没什么新东西、也没什么特别，所以 Sivers 也没什么特别，这真的很可笑。 与此同时，$NVDA 正在给从 $MRVL 到 $LITE、$COHR 的每个 CPO 项目都砸 20 亿美元。 X 最酷的地方在于，你每天和全球各地的人互动，都会学到新东西。
英文原文
I'm amused by Swedish culture at this point. That their retail/journalists are crying every day when someone posts a supply chain mapping of $SIVE lasers to: -> $MRVL CPO -> $AMD CPO -> $JBL 1.6T LRO -> $NVDA -> $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, $MSFT -> Tencent, Baidu, Alibaba for ELS. Then they go crying even further... When someone shows $AAPL is secret hyperscaler customer of Sivers lasers for their next-gen Apple Watch development (which requires 50,000,000 units annually). Does supplying to hyperscalers... Hurt locals's feelings that much to the point they try and self-destruct? It's hilarious that a "Swedish professional" went out and said CPO is nothing new and nothing special, so Sivers is nothing special. Meanwhile $NVDA is just funding every CPO program $2B from $MRVL to $LITE to $COHR left and right. Cool thing about X is you learn something new every day interacting with global audiences.
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AAPL 高概率也在用它们
@Matrix_B0SS $AAPL 高概率也在用它们做下一代 Apple Watch，所以这就是 7/7。
英文原文
@Matrix_B0SS $AAPL high certainty uses them too for next-gen apple watches, so that's 7/7.
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Ayar 的激光更贵
从我看到的情况来看，那是不同类型的激光。给 Ayar 用的更贵，因为 AI 数据中心要求更高，比如还要做光纤对准，所以成本也更高。 Apple 这边只需要推到大约 100mw 的组合功率，相比 AI 光子数据中心要简单得多，而且他们还能压缩激光尺寸。 另外，因为限制更宽松，晶圆良率也应该更高。 以 Apple 的规模来看，单位经济性也便宜得多。
英文原文
From what I’ve seen, it’s different lasers, ones for Ayar are more expensive since AI DCs have higher requirements, eg. there’s also fiber alignment involved, which hikes the cost. Apple should only push out 100 mw combined, compared to AI photonic DCs, and they can compress laser size. Also wafer yields should be higher since looser restrictions compared to AI DCs. Cost at Apple scale is also much much cheaper in terms of unit economics.
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TAM 扩张不只 Apple 一家
@Photonix1337 这已经低估了 TAM 的扩张，因为三星、华为、Google 以及其他公司都在复制 $AAPL。 Apple 还能把同样的技术用到其他产品线里。
英文原文
@Photonix1337 That’s underselling TAM expansion with Samsung, Huawei, Google, and others all copying $AAPL. Alongside the same technology for other product lines Apple offers.
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Win Semi 负责扩产
Win Semi 负责扩产……这也是我看多 $SIVE 的原因，这样他们就不用自己烧 capex 去处理这件事。 世界上能做这类事的公开上市公司没几家，而且它们都已经是几十亿美元市值了。 $JBL 专门选 Sivers 是有原因的。Ayar 也是。和 $LITE、$MTSI 等相比都一样。 只看市值就低估这家公司的人真的太多了。
英文原文
Win Semi handles expansion… that’s why I was bullish on $SIVE so they don’t need to burn through capex handling this. There’s only a few publicly traded companies in the world that can do this and they’re all in the tens of billions. There’s a reason $JBL selected Sivers in specific. Same with Ayar. Compared to $LITE, $MTSI and the others. People really underestimate the company just by looking at the MC.
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Win Semi 替 SIVE 做量产爬坡
@B_Funk_ Win Semi 负责给像 $SIVE 这样的公司做量产爬坡。Win 体量很大，而且是 SpaceX 供应链和 $AVGO 的代工厂。
英文原文
@B_Funk_ Win Semi hands volume ramp for companies like $SIVE. Win is massive and is the foundry for SpaceX supply chains and $AVGO.
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AAPL 使用 SIVE InP 激光阵列
秘密是，$AAPL 🍎 正在用 $SIVE 的 InP 激光阵列来大规模生产消费硬件（高置信度）。 按估计和图表来看，发布时间大概在 2027 年下半年。 想象一下 Apple 每年以 5000 万台以上的规模生产消费硬件…… 还是用一家市值 8.5 亿美元的激光供应商，哈哈。 然后 Apple 一旦这么做，$GOOGL、三星以及其他公司也会跟着上。
英文原文
The secret is that $AAPL 🍎 is using $SIVE InP laser arrays for mass production of consumer hardware (high confidence). Launch date around late H2 2027 from estimates and the graph provided. Imagine Apple mass producing consumer hardware with 50M+/units a year… Off a $850m MC laser supplier lol. Then with whatever Apple does, you’ll get $GOOGL, Samsung, and the others following along next.
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SIVE 正在对接 AAPL
@ashmyro 我已经知道 $SIVE 是下一个很可能的 $AAPL 供应商，这很重要。 我自己最关注的是它们给 AI 数据中心供货的 DFB 激光，因为那会是它们未来的核心营收驱动力。
英文原文
@ashmyro I'm already aware $SIVE is the next likely $AAPL supplier, which is huge. I've been focusing on their DFB lasers going to AI datacenters the most personally, since that's their core revenue drivers in the future.
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SIVE 终局映射很夸张
$SIVE 可能在 2027-2028 年映射到的所有超大规模云厂商，光按 9 亿美元市值来看就已经夸张了。 市场根本不懂接下来会发生什么。 从推测性映射来看： > $SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL -> 1. $AMZN（来自 Celestial 的光子 fabric 采购协议 / warrants） 2. $MSFT（maia） 3. $GOOGL（最近和 Marvell 的开发对话） $SIVE 为 Poet Starlight / 光学 interposer 提供激光，而且几天前 Poet 的 CFO 也确认他们正在给 Marvell 供货。 > $SIVE -> $POET -> “其他超大规模云供应商的 NDA” 1. 西方超大规模云厂商 > $SIVE -> $JBL（1.6T LRO）-> 1. $META（Jabil 承接了 $INTC 的硅光遗产，对应 Meta LRO 项目） 2. $NVDA（NVIDIA 可能把光模块 OEM 出去）-> $MSFT | AWS | 其他超大规模云厂商 $SIVE 是 $JBL 1.6T 光模块已确认的激光源。 > $SIVE -> Ayar（上个月为了量产爬坡融资 5 亿美元） -> 1. Alchip（联合 CPO） 2. Intel 3. GUC/Wiwynn -> $AMZN（Alchip） -> $AMD（来自 $GFS 合作的 CPO）也有可能。 $SIVE 已知是 Ayar 的激光供应商，而且 Ayar 最近把 $MTSI / $LITE 从网站上删掉了。现在只显示 $GFS + $SIVE，这很可能说明 Sivers 是主要激光供应商。 既然 $GFS x $AMD 最近合作了，那如果 AMD 走 Ayar 路线，Sivers 就可能成为其 CPO 项目的核心激光供应商。 > $SIVE -> Enablence -> O-Net（大型亚洲 OEM）-> 亚洲超大规模云厂商 1. $AVGO ELS（可能） 2. $META 和 $GOOGL ELS 3. ByteDance（可能）-> ELS 4. Tencent（可能）-> ELS 5. Alibaba（可能）-> ELS $SIVE 和 O-Net / Enablence 在 OFC 附近有 ELS 合作关系。 Sivers 激光由 Win Semi 之类的代工厂大规模生产……而且在最近的图片展示里，它们也验证在 $GFS 的 CPO 供应链中。 这不是在看 Sivers 今天靠认证收入能指引多少，而是未来每一个西方 / 亚洲超大规模云厂商在 2027、2028、2029 及以后对 CPO / 1.6T 的需求所对应的营收。 $SIVE 看起来是市场上最不被了解、但还没被真正反映出来的光子股票之一。
英文原文
All the hyperscalers $SIVE likely ends up in 2027-2028 is staggering at a $900m MC. Markets don't understand what's coming. From speculative mapping: > $SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL -> 1. $AMZN (purchase agreement/warrants with photonic fabric from celestial) 2. $MSFT (maia) 3. $GOOGL (recent development talks with Marvell) $SIVE powers Poet Starlight/optical interposers, and Poet's CFO confirmed they're supplying to Marvell few days ago. > $SIVE -> $POET -> "NDAs other hyperscaler suppliers" 1. Western Hyperscalers > $SIVE -> $JBL (1.6T LRO)-> 1. $META (Jabil $INTC SiPH inheritance, maps to Meta LRO program) 2. $NVDA (NVIDIA possibly OEMs optical transceivers) -> $MSFT | AWS | hyperscalers $SIVE is the confirmed laser source for $JBL 1.6T optical transceivers. > $SIVE -> Ayar ($500m fundraiser last month for volume ramp) -> 1. Alchip (Joint CPO) 2. Intel 3. GUC/Wiwynn -> $AMZN (Alchip) -> $AMD (CPO from $GFS partnership) possible. $SIVE is known laser supplier to Ayar, and Ayar removed $MTSI / $LITE from their website recently. Only showing $GFS + $SIVE, likely showing Sivers was primary laser supplier. As $GFS x $AMD partnered up recently, that makes Siver a possible core laser supplier for $AMD's CPO program if they go with Ayar. > $SIVE -> Enablence -> O-Net (massive Asian OEM)-> Asian Hyperscalers 1. $AVGO ELS (possible) 2. $META and $GOOGL ELS 3. ByteDance (possible) -> ELS 4. Tencent (possible) -> ELS 5. Alibaba (possible) -> ELS $SIVE ELS partnership with O-Net/Enablence around OFC. Sivers lasers is mass produced by foundries like Win Semi... and they're validated in $GFS CPO supply chains too from their recent image presentations. It's not about what Sivers is forecasting today from qualification revenue that everyone models off of. Alpha comes from future revenue proportional to demand from every Western/Asian hyperscaler for CPO/1.6T in 2027, 2028, 2029, and onward. $SIVE looks like one of the most unknown photonic stocks on the market that's yet to come.
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AMD 之外的主要受益者
@northyvt 我觉得除了 $AMD 之外，$TSM 和 OSAT / 先进封装合作伙伴会是主要受益者？ 也许 $AMAT、$LRCX、$KLAC、$ASML 以及其他公司也会受益？ $INTC 也有他们最近回购回来的自有工厂，所以也挺开心的。
英文原文
@northyvt I feel like $TSM and OSAT/advanced packaging partners are the main beneficiaries apart from $AMD? Maybe like $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC, $ASML and others too? $INTC also have their own fabs that they bought back recently so it's happy.
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CPU 开始像存储一样短缺
CPU “严重短缺” 现在看着 CPU 一天天变得越来越像存储，挺好笑的，像 $SNDK 那样不断涨价。 “自 3 月以来，服务器 CPU 已上涨 10% 到 20%” $INTC 和 $AMD 计划在 Q3 继续涨价。 “CPU 供应很可能在 2026 和 2027 年继续紧张”，其中“Intel 的服务器 CPU 短缺可能长达 6 个月，AMD 则为 8 到 12 周”。 $TSM 也在因这波短缺而增加 capex。 “恐慌的主要原因是 CPU 和 AI ASIC 需求同时爆发；目前库存包括 Intel、AMD 主流代际 CPU，以及 $NVDA 即将推出的 Vera CPU，全部都在 3nm 工艺上。” 看起来我们又绕回来了？
英文原文
CPU "serious supply shortage" It's still funny to see CPUs become more like memory day-by-day with the price hikes like $SNDK. "Server CPUs have jumped between 10% and 20% since March" with $INTC and $AMD planning to further price hikes Q3. "CPU supply is likely to remain tight through 2026 and 2027" with "server CPU shortages reaching up to six months for Intel and 8-12 weeks for AMD" $TSM is also increasing capex in response to this shortage. "The main reason behind the fear is the simultaneous outbreak of CPU and AI ASIC demand; inventory currently includes Intel, AMD mainstream generation CPU, and $NVDA's upcoming Vera CPU, all using 3nm process Looks like we've come full circle?
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Win 和 Shunsin 不会直线上涨
我觉得很多新朋友会惊讶地发现： 股票不会像 Win（3105）和 Shunsin（6451）今天这样直线上涨。 Win 未来 12 个月非常有吸引力，尽管短期会有波动。Shunsin 也是，它是富士康的光子封装 / 测试部门。 可能会有战争式波动，比如伊朗扣了两艘船…… 但我预计 CPO 相关名字会明显跑赢任何宏观环境，并带来更多历史新高。
英文原文
I think many newcomers will be surprised to learn: Stocks don’t move in a straight line up as seen with Win (3105) and Shunsin (6451) today. Win is very compelling over the next 12 months, despite short term volatility. Same with Shunsin as Foxconn’s photonics packaging/test arm. Probably going to be War volatility, with Iran seizing two ships… But I expect CPO related names to heavily outperform any macro climate and lead to more ATHs.
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AIXA 被挡住后会很糟
@R2Discovery 对，像这种也是另一个例子，如果美国没有阻止 $AIXA，这家公司对光子建设至关重要…… 那西方供应链的处境会糟透了。 但政府常常会漏掉一些利基的上游公司。
英文原文
@R2Discovery Yes stuff like this is another example, if US didn't block $AIXA, which is critical for photonics buildout... Western supply chains would be an absolutely horrible spot. But there's some niche upstream companies the governments miss.
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SOI 是硅光基板垄断
对，像这种就是最好的例子。$SOI 是硅光所需基板的垄断者。 法国监管机构已经注意到了。但欧洲很多国家都在配合把技术转移给中共。 唯一能阻止这件事的，就是足够的美国持股或者足够的公众认知。
英文原文
Yes stuff like this is the perfect example. $SOI is a monopoly over substrates needed for silicon photonics. French regulators caught on. But there's so many European nations that are complicit in technology transfer to the CCP. Only thing to prevent this is enough American ownership or awareness.
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欧盟小盘股是防卡点外溢
我有理由重点关注欧盟小盘股。 这是我还没公开讲过的投资 thesis。 我也希望大家愿意花时间读一下： 从 $ALRIB（量子 / MBE）、$LPK（玻璃基板）、$SIVE（DFB 激光），或者像 Nippon Chemical 这样的亚洲公司都包括在内。 这是为了防止敌对势力接管或破坏美国所需的关键卡点。 欧洲的 FiconTEC（虽然是私营公司）就是一个例子，被和中国中共有关联的公司收购了。 我甚至不确定这在法律上怎么会被允许，德国应该 100% 把它从中国手里收回来。 它们几乎垄断了 AI 和 LIDAR 所需的 CPO / SiPH 测试环节。客户里包括 $NVDA、$TSM、$AVGO 和 $INTC 这类最关键的 AI 和半导体公司。 随着时间推移，这种收购之后，大量知识产权和技术 IP 流向中国的可能性很高，而且他们会对美国供应链拥有更多控制。 如果有足够的美国持股和足够的关注，我们的处境会比现在好得多，也不会有隐藏的中共持股 / 接管问题。 否则，我们在美国供应链上就会有更多后门，就像 $AXTI 和 InP 基板那样（如果我们现在没有建立独立产能的话）。 欧盟允许上游供应链卡点（比如专门测试或基板制造）被地缘政治对手买走，或者把 IP 转移过去。 而美国可能还没有意识到这些脆弱性。 这已经是我作为散户能尽到的最大努力了。 未来政策制定者会注意到这些，并在这些草根（散户）自下而上的推动中，阻止这种事情发生。
英文原文
There's a reason I spotlight EU small caps. This my investment thesis that I haven't publicly stated yet. And I hope people spend the time to read: From $ALRIB (quantum/MBE), $LPK (glass substrate), or $SIVE (DFB Lasers). Or even Asian names like Nippon Chemical. It's to prevent hostile actors from taking over or disrupting critical chokepoints required by America. FiconTEC (Europe) as one example (though private) was acquired by Chinese CCP affiliated companies. Not even sure how this was legal and Germany should 100% seize it back from China. They were a quasi-monopoly over testing for CPO/SiPH needed for AI and LIDAR. It's clients include the most critical players in AI and semiconductors, such as $NVDA, $TSM, $AVGO, and $INTC. Over time, significant intellectual property and technological IP transfer to China is highly likely after these acquisitions and they'll have more control over US supply chains. With enough American ownership enough spotlight on these companies: we would be in a worse shape with hidden CCP ownership/takeovers. Or we would have more backdoors on American supply chains like with $AXTI and InP substrates (if we weren't building up independent capacity now). The EU has allowed upstream supply chain chokepoints (like specialized testing or substrate manufacturing) to be bought out or have their IP transferred by geopolitical rivals. While America still not might realize a lot of these vulnerabilities. This is the most I can do as a retail investor to prevent this from happening. Eventually policymakers will pay attention and prevent this from happening if all the movement happens from grassroots (retail) and bottom up.
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美国第一也包括海外供应链
我一直专注于让美国 #1。我确信国外不少人会因此不高兴。 这也包括加速台湾、欧洲和日本的供应链增长（这也是我整体的投资 thesis）。 以确保超大规模云厂商能拿到它们需要的材料，继续起飞。
英文原文
I’m always focused on making America #1. Im sure quite a few people outside the country might get upset though. Part of that includes accelerating supply chain growth overseas too in Taiwan, Europe, and Japan too (my overall investment thesis). To make sure hyperscalers get the materials they need to go brrrr.
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INTC 需要产业主权
@Adnan_M01 我现在看好 $INTC，而且这也是我工作的第一家公司。 美国需要在先进半导体供应链上确保主权。 其中一部分就是在盈利前先补贴 capex。
英文原文
@Adnan_M01 I’m a fan of $INTC now and that was the very first company I worked at. America needs to secure sovereignty over its advanced semiconductor supply chains. Part of that is subsidizing the capex until profitability.
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投资国安供应链是正和的
只是个洗澡时想到的点……投资美国国家安全和供应链，比如 $AMSC 或 $NVTS，真的非常爱国，而且是正和的。 很长时间里，对冲基金都在做空美国本土行业，比如能源和太阳能，直到这些行业被打到破产边缘…… 他们是在和中国的国家补贴下注。 多年之后，结果就是：相比中国，我们能用于 AI 的多余能源产能很少。 通过和白宫以及 $NVDA 一起，支持美国新兴公司的供应链安全…… 股票起飞？美国公司起飞？美国起飞？ （披露：我是美国人，而且非常偏向美国）
英文原文
Just a shower thought... it’s extremely patriotic and positive sum to be investing in American National Security and supply chains like $AMSC or $NVTS. For the longest time hedge funds shorted domestic American sectors like energy + Solar to the point of bankruptcy... By betting with China on their state subsidies. and many years later, as a result: we have little excess energy capacity needed for AI compared to China. By investing alongside the White House and $NVDA to securing US supply chains with up and coming American companies… Stocka goes brrr? US companies go brrr? And America goes brrr? (Disclosure: I’m American, and heavily biased toward US)
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评论美国产业政策倾向：资助非中国企业赴美建厂，实质是排除中国的供应链战略。
这就像给韩国锌业拨款在美国建精炼厂，或者给台积电($TSM)拨款在美国建晶圆厂一样。$HPS.A是北美最大的干式变压器(dry transformers)和开关设备(switchgear)供应商，他们在美国也有关键的生产设施，比如威斯康辛和加利福尼亚。我认为这基本上就是"什么都行，就是不要中国"。
英文原文
It's like giving grants to Korea Zinc to build refineries in the US or $TSM to build foundries in the US. $HPS.A is largest dry transformers -> switchgear in north america, and they have critical production facilities in US too like Wisconsin/California. I think it's basically "Anything but China"
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DPA 受益者清单
是的。总统在两天前援引了“国防生产法”。 这是为了扩张本土基础设施。 隐含受益者包括： 输电和先进导体： $AMSC - HTS 线材（先进导体）、电力电子 $PLPC - 先进导体 $ATKR - 输电组件 $VMI - 电网组件 电力电子 $AEIS - 电力控制电子 $VICR - 电力传输 电容组 $VSH - 电力电容和电容组 变电站和高压断路器 $POWL - 变电站 / 开关设备 $AZZ - 变电站 变压器 $HPS.A - 我最喜欢的变压器标的 $SPXC - 电力变压器 电工核心钢 $CLF - 美国唯一的电工钢生产商？ 这里面包括： - 变压器 - 输电组件 - 先进导体 - 电力电子 - 变电站 - 高压断路器 - 保护继电器、电容组 - 电工核心钢 TLDR：这项行政行动宣布了关于电网基础设施本土供应链的国家能源紧急状态。它授权联邦资金、采购承诺和加速措施，以迅速扩产。 受益者很多，我把 $AMSC、$CLF、$PLPC、还有 $HPS.A 组成了一个迷你 ETF；其他的我没持有。 我猜接下来 3 到 6 个月会有一堆 DOE 合同，比如“DoE 奖励 ___ 给 $POWL”之类的。
英文原文
Yes. The President invoked the "Defense Production Act" 2 days ago. To expand on domestic infra. Implicit beneficiaries were: Transmission & Advanced Conductors: $AMSC - HTS Wires (advanced conductors), power electronics $PLPC - advanced conductors $ATKR - transmission components $VMI - grid components Power Electronics $AEIS - power control electronics $VICR - power delivery Capacitor Banks $VSH - power capacitors and capacitor banks Substations & High-Voltage Circuit Breakers $POWL - substations/switchgear $AZZ - substations Transformers $HPS.A - My favorite for transformers $SPXC - power transformers Electrical Core Steel $CLF - Only producer of electrical steel in America? This included: -Transformers - transmission components - advanced conductors - power electronics - substations - high-voltage circuit breakers - protective relays, capacitor banks - electrical core steel TLDR: The executive action declared a national energy emergency regarding the domestic supply chain for grid infrastructure. Authorized federal funding, purchase commitments, and expedited actions to rapidly expand the manufacturing. Lot of beneficiaries, I made a mini ETF of with $AMSC, $CLF, $PLPC, and then $HPS.A; dont have any of the others. There's probably going to be a bunch of DOE contracts in the next 3-6 months like " DoE Awards ___ to $POWL " off this act is my guess.
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ASMC 也是 DPA 受益者
是的，我自己也持有一些 $ASMC。他们是昨天“国防生产法”的一个大受益者，因为他们和“先进导体”和“电力控制电子”有关。 我还找到了他们的 HTS 线材业务和 $MSFT 的联系。电网板块也应该会受益。
英文原文
Yeah I own some $ASMC. They're a large beneficiary of the "Defense Production Act" yesterday since they have links to "advanced conductors" and "power control electronics.". Found links to $MSFT for HTS technology for their HTS wire segment. Grid segment should be a beneficiary too.
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NVDA 推进 800V
$NVDA 正在积极推进 800V，这对今天来说是一个相当大的信号。 “2026 年 4 月 22 日，NVIDIA 已经与主要韩国电力设备公司展开讨论，探索基于约 800V 直流（DC）系统设计数据中心基础设施。” 之前提到的 Nvidia 合作伙伴包括：Infineon、$TXN、$STM、$NVTS、Delta、Flex、$ETN、Schneider 和 $VRT。 早就知道他们在往这个方向推了，但……看起来现在真的是 Nvidia 在主导。 我个人对 $NVTS 的敞口很小，因为它们在 800V DC 的 SiC / GaN IC 方面暴露很高。 我知道其他人更喜欢 $VICR 作为敞口。
英文原文
$NVDA actively pushing to 800V, and today was a pretty big signal. "On April 22, 2026, NVIDIA has initiated discussions with major South Korean power equipment companies to explore designing DC infra based on an approximately 800V direct current (DC) system" Previous named Nvidia partners include: Infineon, $TXN, $STM, $NVTS, Delta, Flex, $ETN, Schneider, and $VRT. It's been known they're been pushing for this but... looks like Nvidia is really driving it. Personally very small exposure to $NVTS since they're they have a high exposure for SiC/GaN ICs for 800V DCs. I know others really liked $VICR for exposure.
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欧洲 AI 受益名单
欧洲似乎正在从 AI 中获得一些乐子。 $LPK +20.69% -（玻璃核心基板） +20.69% $IQE - 12.22% -（InP 外延晶圆） $SOI +11.02% -（硅光基板） $ALRIB +5.8% -（MBE / 量子） 然后是 $SIVE，因一篇本地瑞典打击稿而下跌 -4.7%，而 $POET 在确认了 Marvell 供应商关系后上涨了 40%+。 不过我依然非常看多 $SIVE，因为市场还没有把它和 $POET、$MRVL 之间的联系拼起来。 不管怎样，欧洲从自己对美国超大规模云厂商的重要性上，还是有值得开心的地方。
英文原文
Europe seems to be having a fun time from AI. $LPK +20.69% - (glass core substrates) +20.69% $IQE - 12.22% - (InP epiwafers) $SOI +11.02% - (silicon photonics substrates) $ALRIB +5.8% - (MBE / Quantum) Then there’s $SIVE down -4.7% from a local Swedish hit piece, while $POET is up 40%+ after Marvell supplier confirmation. But I’m very bullish on $SIVE since markets haven’t pieced together the connection to $POET and $MRVL yet. Regardless, Europe has something to be happy about from being important to American hyperscalers.
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POET 直供 MRVL
哇……$POET 今天盘前涨了 20.5%，而此前还已经涨了 19.32%。 主要原因是 CFO 的采访确认他们是 $MRVL 的直接供应商。 我想知道市场是不是已经知道上游激光供应商是谁了？（提示：$SIVE）。 https://t.co/flfx9NVkxk
英文原文
Woah... $POET is up 20.5% premarket today after a 19.32% gain. Mainly after the CFO's interview confirming they're the direct supplier to $MRVL. I wonder if markets know who the upstream laser supplier is yet? (hint: $SIVE). https://t.co/flfx9NVkxk
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AMD 的 CPO 供应链
哇……如果 AMD 走 Ayar 路线，并在 $GFS 上推进，那么 Sivers 看起来就是 $AMD CPO 项目的主要激光供应商。 有意思的是：$LITE 和 $MTSI 曾经被悄悄地、按顺序从 Ayar 的网站上移除了。 （特别感谢我的一位关注者 Setian 发来私信。） 所以 $SIVE 很可能先成为 Ayar 一代产品的主要激光供应商……进而成为经由 Alchip 或其他 ASIC 设计公司流转的所有 Ayar 客户的供应商。 Ayar 上个月还为了量产融资 5 亿美元，而 $SIVE 已经被设计进去。 这个发现对 $SIVE 来说结构上非常重大，因为它削弱了 $LITE 等公司作为主要供应商的叙事。 尤其也削弱了市场对 $SIVE 在 CPO 里只占很小激光份额的说法，如果它们很可能就是主要激光供应商的话。
英文原文
Woah... Sivers looks like the primary laser supplier to $AMD's CPO program if AMD goes the Ayar route at $GFS. The interesting thing is: $LITE and $MTSI were silently removed from Ayar's website sequentially over time. (Special thanks to one of my followers Setian for the DM.) So $SIVE likely became the primary laser supplier for Ayar first-gen... and by extension for all of Ayar's customers routing through Alchip or other ASIC design firms. Ayar also raised $500M last month for VOLUME PRODUCTION, where $SIVE is designed in. This find looks structurally massive for $SIVE as it undercuts narratives about $LITE and others being primary suppliers. And especially about $SIVE having only a small % laser share for CPO if they're likely to be the primary laser supplier.
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瑞典媒体看不懂光子学
我真的笑了。这大概是我目前见过最搞笑的标题了，自从 $RPI 那次之后。 你会看到瑞典那些不懂技术的记者，对半导体 / 光子学一窍不通。 他们在分析 $SIVE，还告诉所有本地人（大多数持股者）赶紧卖掉，因为它只是个“meme”。 他们不懂围绕即将到来的 $JBL 1.6T 或 $MRVL CPO 放量的超大规模云厂商认证周期吗？ 也不懂它刚刚被验证为 $GFS 生态里的激光供应商，而且 $AMD 正在推动新的 CPO 需求吗？ > 一定是 meme。只能按 2025 年 TTM 资产负债表和旧营收预测来估值，对吧？ 至少这种波动有助于在明年 CPO / 1.6T 关键拐点之前，把控制权转给美国投资者 / 机构。
英文原文
I'm genuinely laughing. This is gotta be the funniest headline I've seen to date since $RPI. You have non-technical journalists in Sweden, with no understanding of semiconductors/photonics. Doing an analysis on $SIVE and telling all the locals (who hold majority) to sell, because it's a "meme". Don't understand hyperscaler qualification cycles from upcoming $JBL 1.6T or $MRVL CPO ramp? Or the fact they just got validated as the laser supplier in $GFS ecosystem with $AMD driving new CPO demand? > Must be a meme. It's only possible to value a company based on TTM 2025 balance sheets and old revenue projections right? At least this volatility helps transfer control over to US investors/institutions before CPO/1.6T inflection point next year.
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本地人抛售对机构有利
他们其实是在帮助美国机构，鼓励本地投资者卖出。 这原本是一只主要由本地散户持有的股票。它最终只会把控制权转给西方机构。 我不太明白“meme stock”怎么会去支撑 $JBL 1.6T、Ayar、$MRVL 以及其他 CPO / 光子项目，哈哈。
英文原文
They're actually doing good work for US institutions encouraging local investors to sell. It was a majority retail-locally owned stock. It will just transfer control over to institutions in the West. Not sure what "meme stock" powers $JBL 1.6T, Ayar, $MRVL, and other CPO/photonics programs lol.