供应链分析
产业链结构、上下游与瓶颈环节研究 · 共 1315 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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通过线索发现一个未披露的超大客户供应商，感慨“找彩蛋”也能用于股票。
原来……股票里找彩蛋也行？ 真不敢相信，我的某个关注者居然通过下面这些步骤，找到了像 $NVDA 或 $GOOGL 这样的 T1 超大规模客户的未披露供应商： -> 看某位高管在 LinkedIn 上发的帖子。 -> 把他们照片左上角放大 5 倍 -> 找到一台外形足够特别、可以识别的机器 -> 根据机器的配色追溯到一家小公司 -> 最后锁定这家未披露供应商 我真的佩服。
英文原文
Turns out... Easter egg hunting works in stocks as well? Can't believe one of my followers found the undisclosed supplier of a T1 hyperscaler like $NVDA or $GOOGL by: -> Looking at an executive's from LinkedIn posts. -> Magnified the edges of one of their posted photo by 5x -> Found one of the machines that looked distinct enough to identify -> Traced the color scheme of a machine back to a small company -> Identified the undisclosed supplier. I'm genuinely impressed.
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强调 AXTI 仍是 InP 衬底和原材料瓶颈，但增发投票让市场紧张。
@Andres17G $AXTI 仍然是 InP 衬底以及制造这些衬底所需精炼 / 前驱材料的巨大瓶颈。 眼下最大的问题是 14 号的股东投票要把可流通股增加 5000 万股，这让很多人很紧张。
英文原文
@Andres17G $AXTI is still a massive massive massive bottleneck for inp substrates and especially the refining/precursors needed to make them. Main issue is 14th shareholder vote on 50M share increase that's putting people on edge.
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总结 AXT、TSEM、SIVE、COHR、SOI 在各自瓶颈中的位置。
$AXTI 是瓶颈。 $TSEM 现在还不是，但我预计它在未来一两年里产能也会被打满。 $SIVE 即将进入 CW 激光周期。 $COHR 什么都做，EML 这块是强项，但在其他一些东西上就不是。 $SOI 严格来说不完全是瓶颈，但它在 SOI 衬底上是垄断地位，而这些衬底对 SiPh 和 CPO 都是必需的，所以这会让所有相关产品都带来显著的营收增长。
英文原文
$AXTI is a bottleneck. $TSEM not yet so far, but I'd expect it to be maxed out on capacity next year or two. $SIVE upcoming with CW lasers. $COHR does way too much, on EML yes, on other things no. $SOI not exactly a bottleneck but it's a monopoly over soi substrates, which are required for siph and cpo. so this leads to material revenue increases from everything that gets made.
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认为多年期瓶颈让人能更安心持有，因为订单可见度延伸到 2028。
多年期瓶颈的好处在于： 从 $HPS.A 到 $SNDK 再到 $LITE 即便像今天这样市场波动，你也能睡得更安稳一点。 因为你知道即使只有 1 年，需求也会极其强劲…… 就算特朗普想把 Bikini Bottom 炸了，其他公司也可能受影响更大： -> 一家在变压器市场份额极大 -> 一家在 NAND 市场份额极大 -> 一家在 EML/OCS 市场份额极大。 而它们的共同点是，订单大概率都已经排到 2028 年。 这意味着几乎可以确定的基本面收入，以及下一年大概率的利润率扩张。 现在还是 2026 年上半年。
英文原文
The nice thing about multi-year bottlenecks from: $HPS.A to $SNDK to $LITE Is that you can sleep a easier despite market volatility like today. Knowing demand will be extreme even 1 year... Even if Trump wants to nuke Bikini Bottom and other companies might be more impacted: -> One has a huge market share over Transformers -> One has huge market share over NAND -> One has huge market share over EML/OCS. And the one thing in common is that they're all likely backlogged on orders into 2028. Signaling near-guaranteed fundamental revenue and likely margin expansion into the next year. It's H1 2026 now.
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认为 Win Semi 被严重低估，在机器人、太空和 AI 供应链里都很关键。
一个被严重低估的冷门 OP 标的。 还是几乎没人谈论 Win Semi（$3105.TWO）…… 从 $LITE 到 $SIVE，以及从 $AAPL 到 $AVGO 再到 SpaceX。 感觉大家其实都在用它？ 我觉得 54 亿美元的估值低估了它在机器人、太空和 AI 超大规模客户供应链中的重要性。
英文原文
What a sleeper OP pick. Still almost nobody talks about Win Semi ($3105.TWO)… From $LITE to $SIVE. And $AAPL to $AVGO to SpaceX. Feels like everyone uses them? $5.4B price tag is underselling its importance to robotics, space, and AI hyperscaler supply chains imo. https://t.co/lMg92KzufM
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认为 AAOI 的 5000 万美元相对未来扩产资本开支并不夸张。
@nasdaq90 5000 万美元，相比为了把美国做成最大的 1.6T 产能、用于 InP fab 和封装扩产所需要的 70 亿美元，其实差别很大。 而现在却是 5200 万股流通股里要再加 5000 万股，至于到底是为了什么，没人知道。
英文原文
@nasdaq90 $500m relative to $7B for InP fab and assembly expansion for becoming the biggest 1.6T capacity in America for $AAOI. Is materially different than 50m shares of 52m share float for nobody knows what.
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认为市场已经在给 LITE 的后续下跌定价，且其下跌会拖累其他标的。
@LepoulpePoulpo 是的，已经到 31 号了，而且你也看到了从那之后股价的下跌。在我看来，市场只是在提前定价。 而且 $LITE 跌了 7%，算法上也会把其他玩家一起带下来。
英文原文
@LepoulpePoulpo Yeah it’s 31st, and you’ve seen the stock drop since then. Imo markets are just pricing in. Also $LITE is down 7% and algorithmically it brings down other players too.
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指出变压器是当前很大的瓶颈，海外也在抢货。
@clarity_99X 现在变压器的瓶颈真的很大，大约一种型号要等 2 年，其他类型要等 3 到 5 年。 超大规模客户现在都在海外四处抢货，而且刚好有一家相对较小、加拿大市值 20 亿多的大公司掌握了很大的市场份额。
英文原文
@clarity_99X Yeah there’s a pretty big transformers bottleneck right now ~2Y for one type and 3-5Y for the others. Hyperscalers are kinda scrambling abroad for them, and it just so happens there’s one relatively small 2B+ CAD company with a very large market share. https://t.co/qUZ4TsWOys
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用订单和 backlog 说明变压器 / 开关设备是数据中心的关键瓶颈。
当前瓶颈：变压器 / 开关设备。 交易思路：在 184 加元买入 Hammond（约 22 亿加元 / 15 亿美元）的多头。 它们主导的市场包括： - 变压器（干式，多年瓶颈，约占市场 23%） - 开关设备（2-3 年瓶颈） - 还生产液体型产品（5 年瓶颈，规模更大） 我个人预计其价格会像 NAND 一样上调，因为 $AMZN、$MSFT 等公司都在争夺配额。 你可能见过这类说法： “美国一半的数据中心建设被推迟或取消，增长受限于电力基础设施短缺”…… 再往下看： “为了解决短缺……加拿大、墨西哥……成了 AI 数据中心高压变压器的最大供应国”…… 猜猜谁在加拿大的 Guelph、墨西哥的 Monterrey 3 和 4，以及美国都有布局？ Hammond。 再看文章引用的，为什么超大规模客户的数据库扩张正在崩掉： “这些挫折背后的主要原因，是关键电气组件的可获得性——比如变压器、开关设备。” 机构大概都在看 Powell、Eaton 之类的公司……但他们可能不知道？ 这些公司其实会买 Hammond 的变压器再装进自己的开关设备里（“大量卖给数据中心、开关设备制造商”）。 它们在变压器市场的份额其实很大（例如干式约 23%）。 最有说服力的信号： -> 2025 年 backlog 同比增长 122%。我们可以据此推测超过 10 亿加元。 例如，公司 2025 年销售额为 8.98 亿加元，产能已经顶到上限。管理层说，2025 年第三季度末的订单价值相当于整个第三季度 backlog 的 53%。 考虑到 2025 年第四季度营收是 2.54 亿，而 backlog “翻了一倍多”，我们可以推算总 backlog 超过 10 亿加元。 另外： “去年毛利率压缩是因为墨西哥工厂建设，但预计毛利率都会上升，工厂扩建会在 2026 年第二季度转化为加速收入增长”，也就是现在。 下行风险在于原材料成本（铜、电工钢）如果再次上升，不过既然处在这种瓶颈里，他们是可以提价的。 我个人的 2026 年前瞻市盈率估计大概是 18-21 倍，2027 年不到 15 倍，因为有产能爬坡。 但如果他们能一边提价，一边接到超大规模客户的紧急订单，前瞻市盈率甚至有可能到个位数。不过那可能会和新并购混在一起。 总之它还是很便宜。 简单总结一下： $AMZN、$MSFT、$META、$GOOGL、$ORCL 的数据中心正在被变压器 / 开关设备短缺卡住。 市场似乎错过了这家市场份额很大的小公司，尽管它有 backlog 可见度，而且随着产能扩张上线，营收还在增长。 我个人觉得很有吸引力，所以建了多头仓位。 当然，这只是我的个人想法，做决定前请自己 DYOR。
英文原文
The current bottleneck: Transformers/Switchgear. Trade Idea: Long Hammond (~2.2B CAD / ~$1.5B USD) at 184 CAD. They dominate the market for: -Transformers (dry, multi year bottleneck ~23% of market), -serve to switchgear (2-3Y bottleneck) -and manufacture liquid too (5Y, larger bottleneck) I personally anticipate components price hikes like NAND, as $AMZN, $MSFT and others compete for allocation. You might have seen: “Half of US data center builds have been delayed or canceled, growth limited by shortages of power infrastructure”… Then you go further: “To address shortages… Canada, Mexico… became the biggest suppliers of high-power transformers for AI data centers to AI data centers” Guess who is in Canada (Guelph).. Mexico (Monterrey 3 and 4)… and the US? Hammond Then here’s the reason the articles cite why hyperscaler DB buildouts are falling apart: “Major reason behind these setbacks is the availability of key electrical components — such as transformers, switchgear”. Institutions are probably looking at Powell, Eaton, and others… but little do they know? Companies like these actually buy Hammond’s transformers to put inside their own switchgear (“strong sales into data centres, switchgear manufacturers") Their market share over the transformers market is actually pretty large (eg. ~23% dry). The most compelling signal: -> 122% Y/Y 2025 backlog increase. And we can infer this to be 1B+ CAD. Eg. company achieved 898m CAD in sales in 2025, capacity ceiling. Management said close of Q3 2025 orders were valued at 53% of the entire closing third-quarter backlog. Given that Q4 2025 revenue was 254 million and the backlog is "more than doubled," we can infer a total backlog value exceeding 1 billion CAD. Also: “Gross margin compression last year was due to the buildout of their Mexico facility, but both gross margins are expected to increase and the facility expansions are expectied to turn into accelerated revenue Q2 2026)” which is now. Downside is if raw material costs (copper, electrical steel) spike again, but given this bottleneck, they can price hike. Personal FWD P/E estimates would be ~18-21 for 2026, <15 for 2027 from volume ramp. But I think it’s possible to hit single digit fwd P/E if they do price hikes mixed with hyperscaler emergency orders. But that might get a little mixed with the new acquisition. Regardless still looks cheap. Just a TLDR: $AMZN, $MSFT, $META, $GOOGL, $ORCL datacenter are being bottlenecked because of a lack of transformers/switchgear. Seems like markets missed this little player with large market share, despite backlog visibility and increasing revenue from capacity expansion coming online. I personally found it pretty compelling, so I went long. Just sharing my personal thoughts, of course DYOR before making any decisions yourself.
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认为超大规模客户延迟扩建带来的外溢，会利好 Neocloud。
我最近对上个月那份报告想得更多了…… 我觉得它对 Neocloud 板块，比如 $NBIS，甚至 $CRWV，的利好可能比市场想象得更大。 原因在于超大规模客户扩建延迟所带来的外溢效应。 这也部分解释了为什么 $META 可能签了 270 亿美元的交易。 那些已经为扩建锁定了产能 / 组件订单的公司，大概率会成为赢家，因为其他竞争对手会被卡住。
英文原文
I’ve been thinking about this report more from last month… It’s probably extremely bullish for the Neocloud segment like $NBIS (and even $CRWV) more than markets think. Because of the hyperscaler buildout delay spillover. And partly why $META might have signed a $27B deal. Companies that already have secured capacity/component orders for their buildout are likely to be major winners as other competition stalls.
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判断台海冲突只是噪音，台湾供应链不会轻易被交给中国。
@BgEdgelord 我觉得这就是个无关紧要的新闻。我几乎可以肯定美国会在军事上保卫台湾。 他们不可能就这么把整个供应链都拱手让给中国。 中国也知道这一点，而且也不会想和美国直接开战、引发核级别后果。
英文原文
@BgEdgelord I think it's a nothingburger. I'm almost certain US would militarily defend Taiwan. There's 0 shot they would just surrender our entire supply chain to China. And China knows this and would not want a Nuclear fallout with direct US conflict.
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指出 AI 供应链极度集中，很多产能最终会落到越南。
@0xkyle__ AI 行业的供应链集中度极高（这其实也适用于国防），而且出人意料的是，其中很多最后都落到了越南。 在中国之外，能做大批量量产的替代地并不多……也许只有哈萨克斯坦一部分。
英文原文
@0xkyle__ There's extreme supply chain concentration in the AI sector (this was for defense), and a lot of it ends up in Vietnam surprisingly. Not exactly any alternatives out there for volume outside of China... maybe only Kazakhstan for some.
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分析太空光学地面站基础设施瓶颈及受益标的。
太空瓶颈：光学地面基础设施。 - “整个行业大约只建成了 10% 的光学地面基础设施” 那么，谁会受益？ - $EOS.ASX（在 Mount Stromlo 运营站点，配有“自适应光学”） - $SKPJF（TYO: 9412）| $NTTYY | Space Compass 是 NTT 与卫星运营商 SKY Perfect JSAT 的合资公司 - $SGBAF - 与 Cailabs 合作，做地面光学终端 - $SAFRY - 光学地面站制造商 如果这条路线失败，备选就会是： $VSAT、$GILT 分析指出，如果光学 mesh 因为云层或地面站不足而失败，架构会“退回到 Ka-band RF 链路”。 -> 短期资本会流向中继服务商（Kepler、Space Compass、General Atomics） -> 长期结构性赢家会是光子硬件制造商（Cailabs、Safran） -> 然后像 SpaceX 这样的公司会默认受益。很多还是私有公司。 “这个基础设施缺口现在已经不只是工程问题，而是对白宫[Golden Dome]重大政策目标的直接威胁。” 在实体地面基础设施扩张之前，轨道激光通信市场会被硬性封顶，因此这就是当前的瓶颈。 但我不太确定 capex 的规模是否已经接近超大规模客户 AI 建设那种级别，足以让这些公司明显受益。
英文原文
The Space Bottleneck: Optical ground infrastructure. - "The industry has built roughly 10 percent of the optical ground infrastructure" Now, who are the beneficiaries? - $EOS.ASX (operating stations at Mt. Stromlo equipped with "adaptive optics.") - $SKPJF (TYO: 9412) | $NTTYY | Space Compass is JV with NTT and satellite operator SKY Perfect JSAT - $SGBAF - Works with Cailabs to for terrestrial optical terminals - $SAFRY - Manufacturer of the optical ground stations Then if it fails fallback would be names like: $VSAT, $GILT Analysis states that if the optical mesh fails due to clouds or lack of stations, the architecture "falls back to Ka-band RF links". -> Near term capital flows to Relay Providers (Kepler, Space Compass, General Atomics). -> Long term structural winners will be the photonics hardware manufacturers (Cailabs, Safran). -> Then companies like SpaceX wins by default. Many are private. "This infrastructure deficit is no longer just an engineering problem but a direct threat to a major White House [Golden Dome] policy objective" Orbital laser communications market are hard-capped until physical ground infra scales, hence the current bottleneck. But not quite sure if capex is to the scale of hyperscaler AI buildouts yet to benefit these companies enough.
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认为西班牙相比越南更西方阵营化，澳洲 / 西班牙相关供应链值得关注。
@Jesusjlloret 是的，正如另一条评论提到的那样，和越南相比，西班牙显然更偏西方阵营，而 $EQR 和其他公司都很不错。
英文原文
@Jesusjlloret Yes Spain as another comment mentioned is a lot more western aligned compared to Vietnam, and $EQR and others are great.
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补充澳洲 / 西班牙是值得关注的供应链区域，但核心仍是保障供给。
这个观点很对，澳大利亚 / 西班牙和 $EQR.AX 都是不错的想法。 我也把越南映射到了其他前沿供应链，所以才把它列为重点关注区域。 不过，核心当然还是尽可能拿到更多供应，而越南刚好是一个稀土 / 关键材料的宝库。
英文原文
That's a good point, Australia/Spain and $EQR.AX is a good shout. There's other frontier supply chains that I mapped to Vietnam, hence why I pointed it out as a major area of interest. But of course, the main thing is securing as much supply as possible and Vietnam just happens to be a treasure trove of rare earths/critical materials.
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认为越南会成为西方供应链投资和稀土 / 关键矿产的下一个重点。
越南大概会成为西方供应链投资以及其他关键矿产 / 稀土的下一个重点区域。 其中一个就是钨（全球第二大钨生产国）。 $MSR Masan（越南河内）—— 越南主要的钨股票。举个例子，它过去 1 年涨了 168.33%。 他们先开采原矿，再加工成 APT 和钨粉。 还有很多非常重要的公司，我之后会再列一份清单。 但我确实预计大量美国 / 亚洲资金会流向这个国家。 尤其是在价格上涨、而西方正在确保供应链不再依赖中国 / 俄罗斯的时候。
英文原文
Vietnam is probably the next focus area for Western supply chain investment and other critical minerals/rare earths. Tungsten is just one of them (world's second-largest tungsten producer). $MSR Masan (Hanoi/Vietnam) - Primary tungsten stock in Vietnam. Up +168.33% 1Y, as one example. They mine the raw ore, then process it into APT and tungsten powder. There's many other very important names out there, I'll follow-up with a list later. But I do expect a lot of US/Asian investment to flow into this country. Especially as prices spike and the West secures supply chains independence away from China/Russia.
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回顾钨等关键材料因出口管制和战争而暴涨。
哦……谁能在一月份就想到钨会这么重要？ “中东战争期间，钨价飙升 557%” 肯定不是像 $ALM 这种公司，它在中国出口管制后，过去 3 个月涨了 75%。 如果你还在找其他需要留意的贵金属 / 关键材料： 铟、铋、碲、钼、锂、锑、镓、锗和石墨……都被列入了出口管制名单。 不幸的是，我自己一直在 $AXTI 上，主要是铟、镓和锗相关的敞口，今年至今也就涨了 215%。 不过，在供应链恐慌期间，还有很多更重要的公司。
英文原文
Oh... who could have thought Tungsten would be important back in January? "Tungsten Price Soars 557% Amid War in Middle East" Certainly not companies like $ALM up 75% this past 3 months after China's export controls. If you're looking for other precious materials to look out for: Indium, Bismuth, Tellurium, Molybdenum, Lithium, Antimony, Gallium, Germanium, and Graphite... were all named in exports controls. Unfortunately, I've been in $AXTI which mainly centered around indium, gallium, and germanium, only up 215% YTD. But, there's a lot more important companies out there during the supply chain panic.
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提醒 VELO 受 $500M shelf 影响，虽然有国防合同但稀释很重。
顺手提醒一下 $VELO。 它有一份 5 亿美元的 shelf，用于 ATM / warrants 稀释，相对于它 3.11 亿美元的市值，这个规模结构性上很大。 它也是个受散户 X 关注的热门票，之前大家在炒 SpaceX、Andruil 和国防供应链。 包括： - 来自战争部的 3260 万美元 - 来自国防主承包商的 1150 万美元 - 来自 DLA 的 980 万美元 这些合同最近都拿到了（对公司总体上是利好）。 他们说这笔稀释是为了“在未来十年扩建 400 套生产系统”以及并购。 不过我确实觉得相对于市值来说，这个金额还是挺掠夺性的，尤其是 ATM 的情况下。 我之前提到过，$VELO 这家公司战略上可能是对的，但从财务角度看就没那么好了，而这本身就是一个必须时刻考虑的重大风险。 不过如果你还在持有，了解一下这个过hang 风险也很重要。 只是标准风险披露一下，因为它是个很受欢迎的名字。
英文原文
Just a heads up to $VELO. There was a $500M shelf for an ATM / Warrants dilution, which is structurally large relative to its $311m MC. This was a popular retail X stock for speculated SpaceX, Andruil, and Defense supply chains: With: - $32.6M from Department of War - $11.5M from Defense Primes - $9.8M from DLA Contracts all recently (largely positive for the company). They announced the dilution was for "scaling 400 production systems over the next decade" as well as M&A. However, I do think this amount relative to MC is pretty predatory, especially with ATMs. I mentioned earlier companies like $VELO can be strategically sound, but financially, not as much so when I covered the stock earlier. And this is a material risk to always consider. But, it's good to understand overhang risk if you're still long. Just a standard heads up risk disclosure since this is a popular name.
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称自己掌握了很多供应链漏洞，但不会公开所有细节。
我到处都映射了很多供应链漏洞。我觉得有些最好还是不要公开，因为那只会把国家安全风险暴露出来。 不过我还是决定拿 $AXTI 来玩一下……如果碰上日本出口管制，结果可能就没那么好了。 所以啊，有些东西我不会提，但如果我有一些核心想法，而且它们是不错的多头，我还是会尽量公开出来。
英文原文
I mapped a ton of supply chain vulnerabilities here and there. I think it's better not to share some since it would just spotlight national security risks. Decided to have some fun with $AXTI though... it might not have turned out as well with Japan export controls. So yeah, there's some I don't mention but any core ideas I have I try and publish them if they're good longs.
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认为欧洲垄断资产被并购后被政府拿回是很有意思的供应链信号。
@zephyr_z9 我还是不敢相信 Robotechnik 居然收购了那家欧洲垄断企业……不过我感觉有些现在正被政府拿回去。 即便如此，关键瓶颈资产都能在并购里被悄悄买走，这一点真的很有意思，绝对是个巨大盲点。
英文原文
@zephyr_z9 I still can’t believe Robotechnik managed to acquire that European monopoly… think some are being taken back by the governments though. Very interesting how even critical chokepoints slip by from acquisitions and it’s a massive blind spot for sure https://t.co/ohiJ8q4As8
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认为 SIVE 主要处在 Marvell 生态里。
@GagHendo007 $SIVE 主要还是处在 Marvell 的生态里。 这就已经很关键了！
英文原文
@GagHendo007 $SIVE is mainly Marvell’s ecosystem. This is everything!
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认为用很小的成本就能扰动万亿美元级 AI 建设很有趣。
我还是觉得很有意思：你居然可以用大约 6 亿美元，去扰动一个万亿美元级的西方 AI 建设…… 有人能猜到是哪几家公司吗？
英文原文
I still find it interesting you can disrupt the trillion dollar Western AI Buildout… For a total price tag of ~$600m. Can anyone guess the companies? https://t.co/GvardDu5bN
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认为 DRAM 是一个很好的存储 ETF。
如果你想要存储敞口，$DRAM 这个 ETF 真的很不错。 我平时不太会夸 ETF，但这个确实很扎实。 1. $MU - 24.63% 2. Samsung - 24.11% 3. SK Hynix - 23.08% 4. $SNDK - 4.9% 5. Kioxia - 4.86% 6. $WDC - 4.77% 7. Nanya - 3.89% 8. Winbond - 2.4% 披露：@roundhill 的朋友们确实联系过我讨论发行事宜，但我不是收钱替它说话（免得你以为这条随机帖子是赞助的，不是的）。 如果你拿不到海外股票，这确实是一个很好的存储敞口 ETF。 我也希望更多机构去做这类 ETF。
英文原文
If you want exposure to memory, $DRAM is a genuinely great ETF. I normally don't praise ETFs, but this is solid. 1. $MU - 24.63% 2. Samsung - 24.11% 3. SK Hynix - 23.08% 4. $SNDK - 4.9% 5. Kioxia - 4.86% 6. $WDC - 4.77% 7. Nanya - 3.89% 8. Winbond - 2.4% Disclosure: Friends over at @roundhill did reach out about the launch, but I'm not getting paid to say this (just in case you think this random post is sponsored, it's not). Just a genuinely great ETF for memory exposure if you don't have access to foreign stocks. And I’d encourage more institutions to make ETFs like this.
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认为 AAOI 自有供应链和产能扩张会带来更高毛利。
@Kaizen_Investor 依我看，大概能有 30%->40% 的提升，凭经验说的。 他们从 InP 激光器 fab 到组装，把整个供应链都放在内部，所以毛利率会随着时间上升。 尤其是当使用老一代 $NVDA 机型的主权数据中心，随着超大规模客户从 800G 转向 1.6T，会买更多 800G。
英文原文
@Kaizen_Investor 30->40% off the top of my head. They do the entire supply chain in-house from inp laser fab to assembly, so gross margins should go up over time. Especially since sovereign DCs using older gen $NVDA models buy more 800g as hyperscalers move to 1.6T
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称 AAOI 收到超大客户 7100 万美元新订单，产能翻上去后营收会很夸张。
Applied Optoelectronics（$AAOI）今天说，他们从超大规模客户那里又拿到了一笔 7100 万美元的新订单。 流入的订单源源不断。 如果他们成为美国最大的 800G / 1.6T 产能，而且光学需求真的起飞， 营收转化会相当夸张。
英文原文
Applied Optoelectronics ( $AAOI ) said it received a new $71 million order from its hyperscaler customer today. The orders flowing in are endless. If they become the largest 800G/1.6T capacity in the US and optical demand does take off. The revenue translation would be pretty insane.
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认为 AXTI 掌控行业命脉，若武器化会带来巨大回报。
@americangeomap $AXTI 掐住了整个行业的咽喉。 如果它真的把这种优势武器化，我觉得没有哪只票能比得上 AXT 的回报。
英文原文
@americangeomap $AXTI has a stranglehold over the entire industry. If it decides to weaponize that, don’t think any pick can beat AXT returns
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澄清 NBIS 不是做光互连，而是更偏 neocloud 和数据服务。
@GeorgeMakro91 $NBIS 并不做光互连。 它更像是 neocloud、robotaxi、数据标注、数据库这一类的业务。
英文原文
@GeorgeMakro91 $NBIS does not do optical interconnects. It's more in the neocloud, robotaxi, data labeling, database type space.
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认为 AAOI 像早期 SNDK，关键取决于执行和产能目标。
@Market_Nick_ $AAOI 看起来像早期的 $SNDK。 成败很大程度上取决于执行，但他们预测自己会从 InP 激光器 fab 到组装，拿下美国最大的 1.6T 产能，这一点挺看多的。
英文原文
@Market_Nick_ $AAOI does look like an early $SNDK. Largely dependent on execution, but the fact they project they'll have the largest 1.6T capacity in the US from projections (from inp laser fab to assembly), is pretty bullish.
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说明 SIVE 还有 OTC 代码。
@Sumojoe118 $SIVE 在美国 OTC 还可以用 $SIVEF 交易。
英文原文
@Sumojoe118 $SIVE trades US OTC as $SIVEF too.
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消费级光子市场比AI数据中心更大，光子公司不应只盯大客户订单。
消费级激光剑产品的市场规模比AI数据中心还大。说真的不明白这些光子公司在干嘛，被$MSFT、$AMZN的超大规模数据中心订单分散了注意力。
英文原文
@tomszczypka Consumer lightsabers have a bigger TAM than AI DCs. Not sure what these photonic companies are doing, getting distracted by $MSFT, $AMZN hyperscaler orders tbh.