方法论
研究框架、选股思路、思维方式 · 共 623 条 · 第 9 / 13 页
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通过追踪AI资本支出流向及电网需求来构建投资组合。
我很受宠若惊 lol。但即使指数相对持平，我对表现也很满意！ 很大一部分原因在于追踪资金流向。 例如：$GOOGL $1800亿资本支出 -> TPU项目 -> TPU物料清单(BOM) -> 8-12% $LITE -> 来自 $AXTI 的上游材料或来自 $IQE 的外延晶圆(epiwafers)。 或者仅仅是 DRAM/NAND 价格上涨 -> 简单地做多存储。 最近由于 Elon 和 OpenAI 推动电网扩张和更多容量，焦点转向电力/电网，因此做多 $XLU。 我想这只是运气好赶上了动量？
英文原文
I’m flattered lol. But I’m happy with the performance even with a relatively flat index! A large part of it is mapping where all the spend goes. Eg. $GOOGL $180B capex -> TPU program -> BOM of TPU -> 8-12% $LITE -> upstream materials from $AXTI or epiwafers from $IQE. Or just the DRAM/NAND price hikes -> as simple as going long on memory. Recently it’s been power/grid focused from Elon and OpenAI pushing for grid expansion and more capacity, so long $XLU. I guess it’s just getting lucky with momentum?
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建议追踪内存及云厂商预测而非宏观，利用隔夜波动获利。
我只想说，与其关注宏观数据，不如追踪内存价格涨幅和超大规模云服务商的预测可能更好。 宏观数据的影响主要是间接的，体现在能源成本（转嫁成本）以及流动性和波动性上。 话虽如此，隔夜数据往往会大幅夸大市场波动，因此可以利用这一点来获利。
英文原文
I would only say it might be better to track memory hikes and hyperscaler projections over macro. Consequences are mainly indirect in terms of energy costs (pass through cost) and just liquidity/volatility. That being said overnight does exaggerate movements a lot so could always take advantage of that
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认为当前入场太早，暂不持仓，仅监控其他代工厂信号。
我目前没有持仓，因为我认为现在仍然太早。我不想仅仅因为两年后才会发生的事情就持有一个头寸。这与提前布局2028年比特币减半类似，现在开始有点太早了。也许提前6-8个月，比如2027年第二季度初。话虽如此，监控其他晶圆代工厂可能是一个很好的信号，但我个人还没有专门跟踪Soitec。
英文原文
Don’t have positions since I thought it’s still way too early. Don’t want to jut sit on something that’s happening 2Y later. Same with front running 2028 Bitcoin halving, starting now is a tad early. Maybe like 6M-8M in advance, like early q2 2027. That being said monitoring the other foundries are probably a good signal but I personally haven’t been tracking it yet for soitec in specific
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期权交易受价差、入场点及IV影响，且远期合约定价异常。
是的，这很大程度上取决于初始成交情况，因为买卖价差很宽，以及入场点（例如，如果你是在日内+1%或-1%的回调时买入），还有隐含波动率(IV)（做市商(MMs)众所周知会在开盘时抬高某些行权价的价格）。 奇怪的是，我发现2028年1月的期权链相比2027年12月的似乎略微被高估了。
英文原文
Yeah largely depends on initial fill since spreads are wide, entry points (eg. If you bought at an intraday +1% or -1% dip), and IV (MMs are known to elevate some strikes market open) I found the Jan 2028 option chain to be slightly overpriced compared to Dec 2027 one strangely enough
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付费通讯表现普遍跑输X上免费博主，建议寻找免费Alpha。
有一篇关于外部付费订阅通讯的有趣文章。 Reddit 上有人花了 9,600 美元/年订阅了前 23 位作者，并比较了他们的收益： 年初至今：Michael Burry：24 次推荐（例如 $PLTR） - 60 天平均回报 -11.1% 每年花费 415 美元，过去两个月亏损 -11%。 按 60 天平均回报排名的顶级作者： 1. Global Tech Research: +26.7% (50 次推荐) 2. SemiAnalysis: +16.7% (80 次推荐) 3. Fabricated Knowledge: +14.2% (50 次推荐) 4. Altay Capital: +13.7% (15 次推荐) 5. Doomberg: +12.6% (79 次推荐) 6. Paulo Macro: +12.1% (21 次推荐) 7. Macro Charts: +11.1% (72 次推荐) 8. The Setup Factory: +10.8% (285 次推荐) 9. The Overshoot: +9.6% (24 次推荐) 10. TicToc Trading: +8.9% (180 次推荐) 其余 12 位表现最差。垫底的是： Michael J Burry: -11.1% (24 次推荐)，每年 415 美元。 故事的寓意： 像 SemiAnalysis 这样的地方确实有真正的分析。但也许不要花几百美元去订阅那些表现远远落后的服务。 我在 X 上跟踪的大多数作者都大幅跑赢了任何付费订阅卖家。 X 上有很多免费的超额收益(alpha)。
英文原文
There was a very interesting piece on external Subscription newsletters. Someone on Reddit spent $9,600/year on the top 23 authors and compared their returns: Since the start of the year: Michael Burry: 24 calls (eg. $PLTR) - 60d avg return -11.1% for $415/Year, they lost -11% over the past 2 months. Top Authors by 60d Avg Return: 1. Global Tech Research: +26.7% (50 calls) 2. SemiAnalysis: +16.7% (80 calls) 3. Fabricated Knowledge: +14.2% (50 calls) 4. Altay Capital: +13.7% (15 calls) 5. Doomberg: +12.6% (79 calls) 6. Paulo Macro: +12.1% (21 calls) 7. Macro Charts: +11.1% (72 calls) 8. The Setup Factory: +10.8% (285 calls) 9. The Overshoot: +9.6% (24 calls) 10. TicToc Trading: +8.9% (180 calls) The other 12 were performed worst. And at the very bottom: Michael J Burry: -11.1% (24 calls) for $415/year. Moral of the story: There's genuine analysis out there from places like SemiAnalysis. But maybe don't pay hundreds of dollars for others, just to vastly underperform. Most of the authors I've been tracking on X have strongly beat any subscription sellers. A lot of the alpha is free on X.
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反对在高位股大跌后追涨拥挤的防御板块，建议利用散户抛售机会建仓。
不。重点是，在高贝塔(高波动性)股票如 $RDDT 或 $SOFI 下跌 30-40% 后卖出，转而重新配置到已被抢跑且处于历史新高的拥挤交易（如国防/石油）中，并不是个好主意。 就我个人而言，针对我的石油/国防对冲头寸，我正在寻找任何主要的散户抛售潮，以便在这些标的中净重新建立多头头寸。 我只是在想机构可能会做同样的事。
英文原文
No. Point was that it's not a good idea to sell high-beta like $RDDT or $SOFI after dropping 30-40% to reposition into crowded plays like defense/oil that have already been frontrun and are ATHs. For me personally with my oil/defense hedges, I'm looking for any major retail selloff to net reposition long in a lot of these names. I was just thinking institutions might do the same.
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机构已提前交易地缘风险，高位追涨石油国防并卖出超跌资产可能是错误。
以下是我对市场的解读： 美国/以色列的政权更迭+对伊朗的打击已被机构提前交易（front-run）。 在历史高位买入国防/石油并卖出风险资产可能是一个错误，因为这本该在一个月前完成。 数据极其异常： 来自 $CVX、$XOM 和 $XLE 的石油/能源板块年初至今（YTD）上涨 22-26%。 大型国防承包商从 $NOC 到 $LMT 年初至今也增长了 27-36%。 大部分涨幅发生在1月下旬，当时情报报告称针对政权更迭的伊朗打击迫在眉睫。 作为参考： - $LMT 一年回报率为 46.12%。洛克希德仅在最近一到两个月内就获得了大部分收益（32.39%）。 这可能与1万亿美元的国防预算有关，但最大的信号是 $CVX、$XLE 和原油因预期中东局势中断而大幅上涨。 伊朗局势与委内瑞拉完全不同，当时所有人都措手不及。 在委内瑞拉事件中，交易者和机构处于同等地位，像 Gold Reserve 这样的公司当日跳空上涨 100%。 但在伊朗事件中，这可能是历史上最“预告”充分的攻击之一，大多数机构已经重新配置完毕（因此高贝塔资产大幅抛售，石油/国防在过去一个月上涨）。 因此，在现有“高风险”资产已经处于低位时卖出，转而配置到已被机构提前交易、经历异常一个月20%+涨幅后处于历史高位的石油和其他国防承包商，可能是一个错误。 预计大多数散户会这样做，并在流动性不足的时段引发波动（但在这种情况下，反向操作可能会带来更高回报） 我可能错了，但就我个人而言，我已在事件发生前用国防和石油进行了对冲。 我的许多对冲收益异常丰厚，我计划将这些资金轮动到高贝塔资产发生的任何主要抛售中。 我的思路是，机构很可能也会这样做。 TLDR：在高风险资产已经抛售之后，将其轮动到已被机构提前交易且处于历史高位的石油/国防，可能不是最好的主意。
英文原文
Here's my read on the market: The US/Israel Regime Change + Strike on Iran has already been front-run by institutions. Buying Defense/Oil at ATHs and selling risk-assets may be a mistake, as it should have been done a month ago. The data is extremely abnormal: Oil/Energy from $CVX, $XOM, and $XLE are all up 22-26% YTD. Large defense contractors from $NOC to $LMT also have increased 27-36% YTD. Majority of the run happening late January, when intelligence reported a strike on Iran was imminent targeting regime change. For reference: - $LMT 1 Year return is 46.12%. Lockheed made majority of its gains (32.39%) in the past month-two alone. It's likely multifaceted with the $1T defense budget, but the biggest tell was the massive run-up in oil like $CVX, $XLE, and crude oil expecting disruption in the middle east. The Iran situation is completely different from Venezulea, where everyone was caught off guard. With Venezulea traders and institutions were on equal footing as companies like Gold Reserve gapped up 100% same-day. But with Iran, it was probably one of the most telegraphed attacks in history and most institutions have already completely re-positioned (hence the major sell-off in high beta and oil/defense going up over the past month). So selling existing "high-risk" assets when they're already at lows to reposition into, oil, and other defense contractors at ATHs after an abnormal 1M 20%+ rally might be a mistake. Majority of other retail is expected to do this and cause some volatility during illiquid hours (but in these cases, doing the opposite might lead to higher returns) I could be wrong, but for me personally, I've already hedged with defense and oil leading up to the event. Many of my hedges are up abnormal amounts, and I was planning on rotating those into any major selloffs that happen in high beta assets. And my thought process was, institutions would likely do the same. TLDR: Rotating your high-beta assets after they've already sold off into oil/defense at ATHs that have already been frontrun by institutions, might not be the best idea.
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机构已提前布局地缘风险，散户恐慌波动将被机构利用。
过去一个月的新闻：“与伊朗的战争迫在眉睫”。 X 上的散户：“没人预料到会发生这种事！现在是恐慌的时候！” 是的，很多因素已经被计入价格，例如能源 ETF $XLE（年初至今上涨 25%）或 $NOC（年初至今上涨 27%），这些表现异常。 预计散户会出现大量波动，但机构/交易员（大多已重新调整仓位）将利用这一点。
英文原文
News for the last month: "War with Iran is Imminent" Retail on X: "Nobody expected this to happen! Everyone time to panic!" So yes a lot of it has been priced in with Energy ETFs $XLE (up 25% YTD) or $NOC (up 27% YTD), which have been abnormal. Expect a lot of retail volatility, but institutions/traders (who have largely already re-positioned) will use this to their advantage.
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只要战争不在本土，历史数据显示其对美股整体长期利好。
你们这些匿名者都意识到战争对股市是利好吧？ 经验法则是： 只要战争不在你的领土上，就是利好。 X 上的散户正在“恐慌性抛售，从 $NVDA 到 $HOOD 全卖，完蛋了”，紧随美国/以色列在伊朗强行政权更迭之后。 但机构大多已经抢跑，正如我们在实际事件发生前看到的大型国防+石油板块上涨（以及任何高贝塔资产的抛售）。 自二战以来，在约 73% 的武装冲突中，美国股市在侵略行为发生一年后都产生了正收益。 而且美国很可能通过此前接管委内瑞拉的石油储备，已经为任何石油波动做好了准备。 朝鲜战争（年化+18.7%）、二战（+16.9%）和海湾战争（+11.7%）期间的年化回报均高于和平时期平均水平。 2022 年 2 月 24 日俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，标普 500 指数下跌超过 7%。 不久后市场反弹，标普指数交易水平高于入侵前，即使油价仍维持在每桶 100 美元以上。 伊朗和石油冲击对不同板块有不同影响，但总体而言大盘会上涨（短期下跌）。 总结：这显然是多方面的，不同冲突影响的板块程度不同。 但经验法则是：只要不在自家领土，战争就是利好。
英文原文
You all do realize War is bullish for markets right anon? General rule of thumb is: As long as it’s not in your territory, War is bullish. There’s the retail on X “panic sell everything from $NVDA to $HOOD it’s over” following US/Israel forcing a regime change in Iran. But institutions have largely frontran it as seen with the rise of big defense + oil sectors (and selloff of anything high beta) leading up to the actual event. U.S. stocks generated positive performance one year after an act of aggression in roughly 73% of armed conflicts since WWII. And it’s likely the US already prepared for any Oil volatility by taking over Venezuela earlier for oil reserves. Annualized returns during the Korean War (+18.7%), WWII (+16.9%), and the Gulf War (+11.7%) all beat peacetime averages. After Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the S&P 500 index fell more than 7%. Shortly after, markets rebounded and the S&P was trading at a level higher than before the invasion, even as the price of oil remained elevated above $100 a barrel. There’s different implications on different sectors with Iran and Oil impacts, but generally markets as a whole go up (short term down). TLDR: It’s obviously multifaceted and more sectors are impacted than others depending on the conflict. But rule of thumb is War is bullish, as long as long as it’s not on your own territory.
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勿仅凭短期图表判断，应关注基本面，当前仅为健康回调。
看看财报、资本支出(capex)预测和运营数据，我不明白你仅凭 $SPY 的图表和 $NVDA 开盘后几小时的走势是如何得出所有结论的。某处总会有牛市，尤其是在亚洲市场/超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)的资本支出流向中。这只是一次健康的回调。如果你感到不安，也许这表明你投资组合中公司的权重配置有误。
英文原文
Look at earnings, capex projections, and operational data, I'm not sure how you got all of that just by looking at the chart of $SPY and few hour movement from $NVDA at open. There's always a bull market somewhere, especially within Asian markets/hyperscaler capex flows. This is just a healthy correction. If you're uncomfortable, maybe it's an indicator weightings of companies in your portfolio is wrong.
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强调股价与基本面脱节，通过运营指标寻找错杀机会。
$CRCL... 三周内已反弹53%。 $54 是最佳的买入时机，而不是财报后涨幅超50%的时候。 有时很难逆着市场情绪操作。 但例如： $CRCL - 尽管股价暴跌，USDC 流通供应量仍是我关注的顶级指标之一。 $AXTI - 7N InP 在 SMM 上非标准化。 生存法则：股价与运营指标之间的脱节。 有时，股价可能反映一种情况，但财报和现实却是另一种。
英文原文
$CRCL... is now back up 53% in 3 weeks. $54 was the best chance to buy, not 50%+ later after earnings. Really hard to go against the sentiment sometimes. But for example, on: $CRCL - USDC circulating supply one of the top indicators I looked at despite the stock price tanking. $AXTI - 7N InP nonstandard on SMM. Alive lives within: the disconnect between stock prices and operational indicators. Sometimes, stock prices might reflect one thing, but the earnings and reality are another.
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等待财报往往滞后，应通过衍生品价格、新闻及同行财报寻找信号。
@YieldKrakers 如果你等到实际财报发布，大多数时候你已经迟了。所有的信号都来自衍生品，比如上海有色网(SMM)上$AXTI 7N铟的非标价格，从新闻中寻找超额收益(alpha)，或者来自其他公司的相关财报。
英文原文
@YieldKrakers If you wait for actual earnings most of the times you’re a little late. All the signals are from derivatives like 7n indium nonstandard prices on SMM for $AXTI, finding alpha in news, or correlated earnings from other companies.
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看好能源电网板块，因缺乏个股知识而选择ETF。
能源/电力/电网板块将成为2026年及以后的重要主题，因为推理/训练需要吉瓦(GW)级数据中心(DC)。$BE 是主要受益者，且可能处于核心地位。我个人最终选择了 $XLU 整个板块，而不是挑选个股（主要是因为我个人对能源类个股缺乏足够的领域知识）。
英文原文
Energy/Power/Grid sector will be a massive theme in 2026 onward as inference/training require GW scale DCs. $BE is a large beneficary and likely at the center of it. I personally ended up going with the $XLU sector as a whole rather than picking individual names (mainly because i don’t personally have enough domain knowledge in energy names)
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做多看涨期权主要获利于价格杠杆而非波动率，高IV标的通常无剧烈日内波动。
@k_a_y_b_e_e_ @elicapitalgroup 如果你做多看涨期权(Call)，主要是从杠杆带来的价格上涨中获利，而非波动率扩张，因为波动率部分目前已被更多定价（尽管我认为它仍有好处）。 通常隐含波动率(IV)为45%的标的不会每天上下波动5%。 https://t.co/DSJU4JrqzJ
英文原文
@k_a_y_b_e_e_ @elicapitalgroup If you go long calls, it’s manly benefiting from price appreciation on leverage rather than volatility expansion since the volatility part is more priced in now (still think it benefits though) Typically things at 45% IV don’t move up and down 5% a day. https://t.co/DSJU4JrqzJ
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分享主要使用组合保证金及低波动率期权的杠杆管理策略。
@Clyfe1 主要使用组合保证金(Portfolio Margin)持有股票（在任何大幅下跌时）。但通常将杠杆率保持在 1.3-1.4 倍左右。 如果隐含波动率(IV)极低（如在指数上）或者存在套利机会，我会使用期权。
英文原文
@Clyfe1 Mostly portfolio margin with shares (on any major drop). But usually keep leverage around 1.3-1.4x. I do options if the IV is extremely low like on indexes or if there’s an arbitrage play.
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在47%IV买入LEAPS，预期波动率扩张至55%
@Veri_ta5321 @TheValueist 隐含波动率(IV)交易可能已处于尾声，但看涨期权(Call Options)大概率会随指数上涨而走高。事实上，我今天在47%的IV水平上又买入了一些长期期权(LEAPS)，因为我预计其长期将扩张至约55%。
英文原文
@Veri_ta5321 @TheValueist Probably on tail end for the IV trade but calls will likely go up from index going up anyway. Actually just bought more leaps at 47% IV today since I expect it to expand further to ~55% long term.
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解析做市商长期波动率定价错误导致期权价值逆势上涨。
基本上，做市商错误地定价了长期波动率。短期波动率定价相当合理（波动率估算为66%），因此短期期权价格下跌。但他们在长期定价上搞砸了，随着他们提高波动率定价，期权价格随之上涨。这导致尽管标的股票下跌，所有期权价值依然上升（Vega扩张/维加扩张）。不知道这有没有帮上忙。
英文原文
Basically market makers mispriced long term volatility wrong. Short term is priced decently at 66% (estimate of volatility) hence why shorter dated is down. But long term they basically messed up, so as they increase the volatility pricing, option pricing goes up. And this causes all the option values to go up (Vega expansion) despite the underlying stock going down. Idk if that helped at all
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指出市场错误定价波动率，存储超周期将结构性改变波动特征。
这正是我所指出的超额收益(alpha)。你引用的数据是正确的，但我指出的是，市场错误定价了隐含波动率(IV)的历史平均值。他们可能将其定价为39%，而实际上股价波动率为70%。做市商(MMs)可能基于均值回归的假设进行了如此定价。但存储超周期以及头部两家公司的集中度，将从结构上改变未来的波动率。
英文原文
That’s exactly the alpha I’m pointing out. You’re citing correct data, but what I’m pointing out is that the trailing IV averages are being priced wrong. They could be pricing it at 39% when in reality the stock moves at 70%. MMs likely priced it so, assuming a reversion to mean. But the memory supercycle and concentration in two names structurally changes volatility moving forward.
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警示勿全仓押注短期期权，引用 Reddit 司机亏损案例。
本周 Reddit 上最热门的帖子： 一名 DoorDash 司机最近在 Robinhood 上亏光了 14 万+美元的毕生积蓄。 他做每周期权，声称： “我的预测从未出错”。 他用剩下的 160 美元做的最新交易？ $RDDT 160 美元行权价的周权看涨期权。 Reddit 隔夜下跌 1.5%，本周需要超过 10% 的涨幅才能保本。 如果周五前涨幅没有超过 10%，这些期权将归零。 基本上，Reddit 是学习以下内容的最佳场所： -> 在市场中不要做什么。 故事的寓意： 请停止全仓押注短期期权。
英文原文
The most popular post on Reddit this week: A DoorDash driver has recently lost their life savings of $140K+ on Robinhood. Doing weekly options, claiming: Their “predictions have never been wrong”. Their latest play with their remaining $160? $RDDT $160 weekly calls. Reddit is down 1.5% overnight and requires over a 10% gain this week, just to break even. If it doesn’t gain 10%+ by Friday, the options go to $0. Basically, Reddit is the greatest place to learn: -> What not to do with markets. Moral of the story: Please stop full sending it into short dated options.
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质疑权威是发现市场异常的关键技能。
@swisssong 我上学时经常因为不听老师的话而被留堂。事实证明，质疑权威正是你在市场中发现异常所需的能力。在这种情况下，隐含波动率(IV)在我看来似乎有些不对劲。
英文原文
@swisssong I used to get detention all the time back in school because I never listened to teachers. Turns out, questioning authority is the same skillset you need with markets to find whether something is off. And in this case, IV seemed off to me.
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通过供应链瓶颈分析挖掘AXTI的超额收益逻辑。
$AXTI 是你如何寻找超额收益(alpha)的完美例子。 在过去的几周里，我展示了： - 7纳米铟在标准金属市场(SMM)达到历史新高(ATH) - 来自 Litecounting 和其他分析师预测的光子供应链飙升 - 与日本和中国的贸易冲突影响住友电工(Sumitomo)及上游竞争对手的原料供应 - 超大规模云服务商资本支出流向专用集成电路(ASIC)和半导体供应链，如 $LITE - 谷歌张量处理单元(TPU)的光子物料清单(BOM)估算 - 美国政府没收资产后优先发展磷化铟(InP)供应链 我发现 $AXTI 在衬底生产以及上游原料方面拥有重大瓶颈控制力。 这就是你如何在一个月或两个月内找到超额收益并实现股票三位数回报的方式。 而不是等待财报并看到更新的 35 美元以上的分析师目标价。 这是我坐下来让市场消化我所做研究的时期。
英文原文
$AXTI is the perfect example of how you find alpha. Over the past few weeks I’ve shown: - 7n indium nonstandard on SMM reaching ATHs - photonic supply chains from litecounting and other analyst projections skyrocketing - trade conflicts with Japan and China affecting Sumitomo and upstream competitor feedstock - hyperscaler capex going into asics and semi supply chains like $LITE - estimated photonic BOM on Google TPUs - Us administration prioritizing InP supply chains after seizing assets And found that $AXTI has a major chokehold on both substrate production as well as upstream feedstock. This is how you find alpha and stock triple digit returns in a month or two. Not after waiting for earnings and seeing updated $35+ analyst price targets. This is the period where I sit back and let markets price in the research I’ve done.
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强调建立独立投资信念，分享交易思考过程供他人学习。
@aditya_martand 你应该建立自己的投资信念(conviction)，而不是跟随他人。我只是分享我对 $XLU 这笔交易背后的思考过程，以防其他人觉得这些想法有趣并能从中学习。
英文原文
@aditya_martand You should build your own conviction, not follow others. I'm just sharing my thought process behind my own trade on $XLU in case others find the ideas interesting + can learn something.
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澄清ROE与股价回报区别，预计2026年受AI支出和降息驱动表现异常。
两点： 1. 混淆利润率与总可寻址市场(TAM) 2. 你的陈述将净资产收益率(ROE)与股市回报混为一谈。 你说得对，收益=允许的ROE×费率基数(rate base)，且受监管公用事业的ROE是有上限的。不需要允许的ROE上升，只需费率基数爆炸式增长即可（现在正是如此，因为超大规模云服务商正在为电网升级买单）。 主要的一点是，单一指标ROE并不等同于多维度的股票表现。 股票百分比回报由每股收益(EPS)、降息带来的市盈率(P/E)扩张、未来预期增长（特别是关注来自AI推理+资本支出周期的数据中心增长）驱动。 鉴于巨大的AI支出加上降息顺风，我预计2026年将是异常值。
英文原文
Two things: 1. Mixing up profit margin with TAM 2. Statement you made conflates ROE with stock market returns. You're correct in saying earnings = allowed roe × rate base and roe is capped for regulated utilities. Don't need allowed roe to go up, just rate base to explode (it is now since hyperscalers are paying for grid upgrades) The main thing is that one specific metric ROE, does not equate to multifaceted stock performance. Stock % returns are driven by EPS, P/E expansion from rate cuts, future expected growth (especially looking at DC growth from AI inference + capex cycle). Given the massive AI spend coupled with rate cut tailwinds, I expect 2026 to be the anomaly.
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指出AI预测偏差，强调基本面优于技术分析。
并非如此，Gemini 只是非常自信地给出了错误答案。我刚才试着问了它类似的问题，结果偏差极大。 基本上，图表呈现直线上升的原因是分析师预测（大语言模型并未对此进行训练）显示，SK海力士明年的净利润将超过 $AAPL。 SK海力士仍是一家市值约 4300 亿美元的公司，而苹果为 3.7 万亿美元。此外，三星的净利润更是天文数字。 因此，估值重估（Repricing）可能还有很长的路要走。 基本面 > 技术分析(TA)。
英文原文
Not really, Gemini is just very confidently wrong. I tried asking it similar questions just now and they were super off. Basically reason it's a straight line up is because analyst projections (which LLMs haven't trained on), projects that Sk Hynix makes more net income than $AAPL next year. SK Hynix is still a ~$430B company compared to $3.7T. Then Samsung net income is just astronomical. There's likely a long way to go for repricing. Fundamentals > TA.
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利用时区差异进行韩国指数与SK海力士的统计套利，揭示市场低效。
交易思路： 利用韩国 $EWY 期货（美盘）与 SK 海力士（欧盘）的时区差异，进行多市场套利。 如果 $EWY 大幅上涨而 SK 海力士（HY9H）走势平稳： > 买入法兰克福上市的 SK 海力士是一种统计套利。 因为相较于欧洲单只股票，$EWY 的美国期货定价更为准确。 该交易逻辑是——如果美国期货上的韩国指数大幅上涨： -> 鉴于指数集中度高，SK 海力士个股有很大概率跟随上涨（甚至更多）。 本质上是指数与成分股的相关性加上统计套利，并非无风险套利。 我在“淋浴思考”频道举过一个例子：当 $EWY 上涨约 3.8% 时，SK 海力士欧盘仅上涨 0.4%。 > 我预期 SK 海力士 HY9H（当时走势平稳且欧元价差较小）会弥补美国期货与法兰克福市场之间的延迟，并在次日定价。 我能在收盘前获得不错的成交，且未大幅推动股价，然后在当天或下一个欧洲交易日卖出，获利几个百分点。 总结： 外国股票中存在与时区相关的低效现象。 这些思路在被他人发现前可能是金矿。但这个具体思路在太多人看到后可能已经失效。 但市场低效确实存在。
英文原文
Trade idea: Korean $EWY Futures (US) -> SK Hynix (EU) time zone, multi-venue arbitrage. If EWY is up a lot while SK Hynix (HY9H) is flat: > Buying SK Hynix Frankfurt is a statistical arbitrage. as US futures in $EWY are accurate compared to EU single stock. The trade was - if Korean Indexes on US futures go up by a large amount: -> SK Hynix individually has a high probability of going up by similar amounts (if not more) given high index concentration. Basically index to component correlation + statistical arbitrage, not risk-free arbitrage. One example I posted in my shower thoughts channel was when $EWY was up ~3.8% then SK Hynix EU was only up .4%. > My expectation was SK Hynix HY9H (which was close to flat + spread on EUR) would play catchup to the delay between US futures and Frankfurt > be priced in the next day. Was able to get a decent amount of fill near close before moving the stock too much, then sell same day or next EU trading day for a few percent gain. TLDR: Time-zone related inefficiencies can be found across foreign equities. These ideas can be a gold mine before it gets discovered by others. This idea in specific is now likely gone after too many people see this. But, market inefficiencies do exist.
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以$XLU为例展示期权高杠杆效应，并提示其高风险。
举个例子说明 $XLU 的杠杆效应——当股价为 43.6 美元时，你可以在较高行权价以 0.6 美元的溢价买入期权合约。名义敞口可能达到 72 倍，因此如果期权变为实值(ITM)，你可以用 60 美元控制价值 4360 美元的股票。2 倍杠杆无法达到这种效果。当然，期权交易风险极高，我只是分享我的看法。我相信其他人可以根据整体逻辑，在电力板块中找出其他方向性多头标的，如果其中有一两个赢家出现的话。
英文原文
So just to give you an example on leverage with $XLU - you can buy contracts for 60 cent premium at higher strikes when the stock price is $43.6. The notional exposure might be 72 times, so you can control $4360 worth of stock for $60 if it goes ITM. 2x leverage doesn't quite get to that. But of course the option play is extremely risky, I just wanted to share my thoughts. I'm sure others can come to other directional longs based on the overall thesis if there's one or two winners in the power basket.
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对电力电网板块2026年拐点的定量拆解。
可能还有其他人在我2-3天前在淋浴思考频道和公共时间线（引用推文）发布原始论点后买入。这更多是对为何我认为2026年可能是电力/电网板块拐点的一个定量拆解。之前只是高层级的方向性思维过程。
英文原文
Probably other folks who bought it since I posted the original thesis 2-3 days ago in my shower thoughts channel and public timeline too (quoted post). This was just more of a quantitative breakdown on why I think 2026 might be the inflection point for power/grid plays. Before was just a high level directional thought process.
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通过图表目测隐含波动率，利用定价错误加速看涨期权收益。
IV（隐含波动率）是衡量隐含波动程度的指标。你可以通过图表大致进行目测检验。$EWY 每天的波动幅度，甚至超过那些高波动率公司（例如 $MRVL，波动率55%）一周内的波动。有时波动率会被错误定价，如果你能发现这一点，当市场正确重新定价波动率时，你的看涨期权（Calls）上涨速度会快于正常水平。
英文原文
IV is a measurement of implied volatility. You can kinda eyeball test it based on the chart. $EWY moves more in every day than companies with volatility (eg. $MRVL 55%) does a within a week. Sometimes volatility is priced wrong and if you spot that, your calls go up faster than normal when market markets price in volatility correctly.
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建议关注前瞻性需求而非历史收入。
@bilbooo__ 关注前瞻性的需求爬坡，而非过往的收入确认。 https://t.co/WygqbUueG8
英文原文
@bilbooo__ Look at forward demand ramp, not previous revenue recognition. https://t.co/WygqbUueG8
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作者分享基于宏观催化剂和供应链映射的主动行业轮动对冲策略。
我不会对少数个股采取死守策略并沿途进行对冲。我通过行业轮动来调整投资组合集中度，以此实现个人对冲。例如，伊朗/美国紧张局势升温时，$CVX / $XLE 及国防板块可能上涨，我会减仓其他权重。这些是天然对冲而非看跌期权，只要上涨多于下跌，这就很有效。例如，格陵兰和平协议达成后 -> 减仓 $OSS 及相关军事关联板块。谷歌资本开支指引发布后 -> 增加半导体贸易/光子学BOM（物料清单）的敞口。我认为你更关注像 $TE、$QS 这样的小盘股，而我的投资组合在半导体供应链瓶颈和能源之间分配。策略可能大不相同，我的策略是基于宏观催化剂、供应链映射和盈利预测的极度主动管理。
英文原文
I don't do your hold for dear life strategy with a few individual stocks and hedge along the way. I personally hedge by shifting portfolio concentration by doing sector rotation. For example Iran/US tensions $CVX / $XLE and likely defense goes up, trim other weightings. These are natural hedges rather than puts, and as long as more things go green then red, it's effective. Post-greenland peace deal for example -> trim $OSS and related sector correlation to military. Post Google capex -> up exposure to semi trade/photonics BOM. I think you focus more on small cap like $TE, $QS where my portfolio is split between semi supply chain bottlenecks + energy. Strategy would probably be a lot different, mine is extremely active management based on macro catalysts, supply chain mapping, and earning forecasts.
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高波动个股大涨，提示需调整组合权重以应对波动。
这只是市场里平平无奇的一天，从 - $OSS +26.23% 到 - $LPTH +21.0% 单日涨幅超过20%。 最重要的一课是：如果像 $AXTI 这样的高贝塔(高波动率)个股的波动让你难以忍受，那可能是你的投资组合权重配置错了。 https://t.co/VaF3fm4MuN
英文原文
Just your average day in the market with everything from - $OSS +26.23% to - $LPTH +21.0% Going up 20%+ in a day. Most important lesson is that if it’s hard to stomach volatility with these high beta names like $AXTI, maybe your portfolio weighting is wrong. https://t.co/VaF3fm4MuN
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博主分享通过时间滞后套利发现隐含波动率异常并深入研究的经历。
@yomattyboi 我当时正在对部分亚洲股票进行时间滞后套利(time lag arbitrage)，偶然发现了这个。隐含波动率(IV)乍一看与实际波动率(volatility)相比显得不对劲，于是我便深入查看了一下。
英文原文
@yomattyboi I was doing time lag arbitrage with some Asian equities so stumbled across this by random. IV just didn’t look right at first glance compared to volatility so took a deeper look
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指出$EWY期权定价错误，利用算法偏差获取维加扩张收益。
做市商可能很讨厌我。 $EWY 的隐含波动率(IV)在5天内从32%升至42%（基于2年期LEAPS期权）。 仅凭IV/维加(Vega)扩张就能获得约30%以上的免费利润。 衍生品中偶尔会出现套利机会。 算法并不总是能正确定价。 https://t.co/YI3g6Vv1i5
英文原文
Market makers probably hate me. $EWY IV went from 32% -> 42% in 5 days on 2 year leaps. Would be a free ~30%+ profit off IV/vega expansion alone. There’s rare cases of arbitrage opportunities off derivatives. Algorithms don’t always price things in correctly. https://t.co/YI3g6Vv1i5
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反驳观点，指出IV普遍上涨，但承认期权价差扩大可能是混淆因素。
我不同意，我认为隐含波动率(IV)确实出现了重估上涨，因为你可以看到每个虚值(OTM)合约的IV变化。我最初发帖时IV为32%，此后整体IV肯定已升至约38-39%。2027年LEAPS的IV值也从30%出头升至40%多。但正如你所说，期权价差(Option Spreads)大得多，这可能是一个混淆因素。
英文原文
I disagree, I see genuine repricing up of IV, since you can see the IV changes reflected across each OTM contract. I originally posted it at 32% IV and it’s definitely increased since then ~38-39 IV across the board. IV values have increased for 2027 leaps as well from low 30s to 40s. But as you mentioned the option spreads are a lot wider and might be confounding factor
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博主称凭借超强记忆力可高效跟踪多只股票及期权信息。
@ponzisseur 不知为何，我对财务信息有着近乎照相式的记忆。因此，我能够跟踪40多只股票/期权链，并在有新消息出现时将信息串联起来。
英文原文
@ponzisseur I have a weird close to photographic memory for financial information somehow. Hence why I’m able to follow 40+ stocks/option chains and just map information together when new things come out.
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建议避免使用Robinhood交易期权，因其执行质量差且存在利益冲突。
@BitcoinDiddy 没错，使用 Robinhood 交易短期期权纯粹是在浪费钱。做市商(Market Makers) 如 Citadel 实际上是在付钱给 $HOOD，以换取更差的成交质量，并针对信息不对称的散户资金进行反向交易。使用 $IBKR 或其他券商，你能获得更好的执行质量，且订单直接对接交易所。
英文原文
@BitcoinDiddy Yep, using Robinhood for short dated options is just throwing away money. MMs like Citadel literally pay $HOOD to give users worse fill and to trade against uninformed retail flows. Using $IBKR or others, you get better execution, and it goes direct to exchanges.
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软件无护城河，网络效应与监管壁垒才是核心竞争优势。
1. 网络效应(Network Effect)。你可以在一天内写出 Reddit 的代码。但因为大家都同意使用像 Hyperliquid 或 Polymarket 这样的平台，这赋予了它可防御的价值。 2. 同意任何新创业公司的观点。软件没有护城河(Moat)。 3. 主要的护城河是监管/时间。Stripe 甚至花费了 11 亿美元，仅为了通过与 Bridge 的合作获得牌照的快速通道并收购竞争对手。
英文原文
1. Network effect. You can code Reddit in a day. But because everyone uses agrees to use something like Hyperliquid or Polymarket gives it defensible value. 2. Agreed for any new startup. No moat in software. 3. Main moat is regulation/time. Stripe literally spent $1.1B just for a fast path for licenses with Bridge and buy out competition.
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警示散户勿重仓短期期权，亚马逊周权期权因股价连跌归零。
Reddit 上最受关注的故事： 一名 Robinhood 用户用积蓄购买了五位数金额的 $AMZN 周权看涨期权(Weekly Calls)。 条件是？ 股价需收复 205 美元以上，潜在收益可能超 100 万美元。 否则归零。 今天，亚马逊收于 198.8 美元。 亚马逊已连续第 9 个交易日下跌，导致其周权期权组合在本周结束时变得一文不值。 故事的教训：请停止持有短期期权。 那 2.6 万美元本可以随时间复利增长至 50 万美元，但现在它毫无价值。
英文原文
The most watched story on Reddit: A Robinhood user bought 5 figures of $AMZN weekly calls with their savings. The condition? Recover past $205 for a potential $1M+. Or go to $0. Today, Amazon finished at $198.8. Amazon has now dropped for the 9th straight session, causing their portfolio of weekly options to end the week worthless. Moral of the story: Please stop holding short-term options. That $26K could easily compound to $500K with time, but now it’s worth nothing.
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分享研究灵感来源：X平台互动、私信及线下讨论。
@yomattyboi - 其中三分之一来自像 @zephyr_z9 这样的 X 用户，他们引用转发我关于“$AXTI 磷化铟(InP) 兄弟们，你们考虑过 _ 吗？”的内容。然后我会进一步向上游进行研究。 - 另一部分来自评论区或人们提及股票时的私信(DM) - 最后一部分仅仅是线下的行业讨论
英文原文
@yomattyboi - 1/3rd of it is folks on X like @zephyr_z9 quote tweeting me about “ $AXTI InP bros, have you thought about _?” Then I do more research upstream. - other part is comment sections or DMs from people who tag about stocks - last part of it is just industry discussions irl
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建议散户简化策略，聚焦核心标的如台积电，而非追踪复杂上游瓶颈。
对于绝大多数散户而言： 如果你想搭乘当前资本支出(capex)趋势的快车，我认为以下这些是必须持有的标的： 1. 存储(Memory) - $MU, 三星, 海力士, $SNDK 2. 光子学(Photonics) - $LITE, $COHR 3. CoWoS/晶圆代工(Foundry)/先进封装(Advanced Packaging) - $AMKR, $TSM, $INTC 随着向产业链上游深入，存在许多细微的瓶颈环节，例如我常提到的： 光子学的基板/原料层面的 $AXTI，共封装光学(CPO)中ELS领域的利基玩家如 $AAOI，良率相关的 $TER 或 $AEHR，硅光(SiPh)领域的 $TSEM。甚至是数据中心中从日月光(unimicron)到其他厂商的基板铜用量。 我的观点是，对于绝大多数(99%)的人来说，你可以选择“简单模式”生活，无需追踪 X 上的每日更新或 $AMKR 的资本支出流向。 只需关闭大脑中关于供应链映射/更新的部分，坚持持有像 $TSM 这样处于核心地位的标的，有时是更好的选择。 它很可能也会跑赢大部分上游玩家。
英文原文
For the vast majority of retail: If you want to ride the capex trends happening right now, these are probably must have imo: 1. Memory - $MU, Samsung, Sk Hynix, $SNDK 2. Photonics - $LITE, $COHR 3. CoWoS/Foundry/Advanced Packaging - $AMKR, $TSM, $INTC There's a lot of nuanced bottlenecks as you go upstream I talk about like : $AXTI in the substrate/feedstock level for photonics, random niche players like $AAOI for ELS in CPO. $TER or $AEHR for yields, or $TSEM for SiPh. Or even copper usage in DCs to substrates from unimicron to others. My opinion is that for the vast 99% of people, you can live life on easy mode without tracking day-to-day updates on X or where the capex spend from $AMKR goes. Just turning your brain off from all the supply chain mapping / updates, then just sticking with things like $TSM which is the center of it all is sometimes the better thing to do. It probably outperforms a large percentage of the upstream players as well.
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Neocloud板块卖空多为对冲，基本面强劲时无需过度关注。
从 $IREN 到 $WULF 的 Neocloud 板块的卖空兴趣(SI) 主要是可转换票据对冲，而非真正的做空。当然，像 Hedgeye 这样的机构也在增加 $NBIS 的 SI 数据，因此很难得知实际数字。话虽如此，如果基本面强劲，我其实不太在意 SI。
英文原文
Short interest from Neocloud sector from $IREN to $WULF are mostly convertible note hedging, not actual shorts. Of course there’s firms like Hedgeye adding to that number for $NBIS SI so it’s hard to know the actual figure. That being said don’t really care too much about SI if fundamentals are strong.
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小资金应集中投资高弹性标的，大资金则需降低风险。
微妙。通常“集中创造财富，分散保全财富”这句老话是成立的。 我大体同意，除非你分散投资的所有标的都是高贝塔且高度相关的。我不确定 $IBIT 的复苏或 $SNDK 哪个涨得更快，所以我选择多匹马下注，并给它们装上 $RKLB 这样的火箭助推器。 但通常来说，是的，投资组合越小，集中度应该越高。如果你有 $10k，也许只选2-3个你最看好的，比如 $SNDK 或 $POET（但显然风险稍大）。 用 $10k 去稳健复利 $GOOGL 或进行分散投资，不会改变你的生活（你打工赚得更多）。但一般来说，随着投资组合规模的增长，你需要承担的风险就越小。
英文原文
Nuanced. So typically concentration builds wealth and diversification preserves it rings true. I generally agree unless all your diversified picks are high beta and correlated. I'm just not sure if $IBIT recovery or $SNDK would go up faster so I bet on multiple horses with $RKLB rockets attached to them. But usually, yes, the smaller the portfolio is, the more concentration your portfolio should be. If you have $10k, maybe just pick 2-3 of your favorites like $SNDK or $POET (but obviously a tad more risky). Safe compounding $GOOGL or diversifying with those amounts won't change your life (you would get more working a job). But generally the more your portfolio goes up the less risk you need to take.
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市场恐慌情绪蔓延，建议此时寻找被错杀的入场机会。
在$PYPL今日暴跌20.7%+后，股市已进入恐惧(Fear)区域。 在$COIN暴跌48%且$MSTR在过去3个月暴跌51%后，加密市场(Crypto markets)现已处于极度恐惧(Extreme Fear)状态。 散户似乎正在恐慌。 现金(Cash)是一种仓位，但它本应在一周前就确立。 现在可能是寻找入场点的好时机。尤其是当恐惧已经压倒基本面(Fundamentals)时。
英文原文
Stock markets have entered Fear territory after $PYPL dropped 20.7%+ today. Crypto markets are now in Extreme Fear after $COIN crashed 48% and $MSTR crashed 51% in the last 3 months. It looks like retail is panicking. Cash is a position, but it should have been one a week ago. Now might be a good time to look for entry points. Especially when Fear has overridden fundamentals.
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博主视当前市场恐慌为短期流动性冲击，坚持在极度恐惧时买入。
由于白银的强制去杠杆，市场在一天之内就从贪婪转向极度恐惧和“熊市/加密寒冬”了，哈哈。这是过去几年内的第4次了。 作为一个从2016年起经历过每一个加密周期的老手，我会在恐惧达到顶峰时买入。 我认为这只是一次短期的流动性冲击，我正在逢低买入，而非量化紧缩(QT)。 随后将迎来复苏，届时机构将重新配置净多头头寸，这可能发生在未来一两天或几周内。
英文原文
We went from Greed to Extreme Fear and “bear market/crypto winter” in just one day from the silver forced deleveraging lol. This is the 4th period within the last few years. As someone who’s been through every crypto cycle since 2016, I buy when fear is max. I expect this to be a short term liquidity shock which I’m buying into, not quantitative tightening. Then a recovery one institutions reposition net long which could be in another day or two or weeks.
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回顾历史极度恐惧时买入BTC/ETH的高回报，重申逆向投资策略。
突发新闻——今日，加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数(Crypto Fear and Greed Index)触及： 15。极度恐惧(Extreme Fear)。 自2023年以来，这种情况仅出现过3次： ~ 2025年3月11日 ~ 2025年4月7日 ~ 2025年11月22日 如果你在这些天买入 $BTC 和 $ETH 并持有2个月，回报如下： 3/11：+33.7% (BTC)，+39.5% (ETH) 4/7：+33.5%，+43.1% 11/22：+5.9%，+6.2% 3月/4月的下跌是代际级别的买入机会。 11月的下跌复苏较慢，但依然非常有利可图。 无论如何，这是一个古老的故事：恐惧时买入，贪婪时卖出。
英文原文
Just In -- Today, Crypto Fear and Greed Index Hits: 15. Extreme Fear. This has only happened in 3 periods since 2023: ~ 3/11/2025 ~ 4/7/2025 ~ 11/22/2025 If you bought $BTC and $ETH on each of those days and waited 2 months, here were the returns. 3/11: +33.7% (BTC), +39.5% (ETH) 4/7: +33.5%, +43.1% 11/22: +5.9%, +6.2% The March/April dips were generational buying opportunities. The November dip was a slower recovery, but very profitable nevertheless. Regardless, this is a tale as old as time, buy during the fear, sell during the greed.
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解释HFT算法抢跑散户订单，并以此作为做多逻辑。
不，这些是高频交易(HFT)算法在对我发布的帖子做出反应，并抢先执行散户的买入订单流。有一半的时间这是真正的信息发现过程，价格会持续上涨。在这种情况下，这只是正常的信息综合，也是我建立多头头寸的原因。你可以清楚地看到，在我发布股票代码的那一刻，成交量出现了异常。
英文原文
No these are HFT algorithms reacting to my posts and frontrunning retail order buy flows. Half the time it’s genuine information discovery and it keeps going up. In this case this is just normal information synthesis and why I took a long. You can clearly see abnormal volume the moment I posted a ticker.
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警告散户警惕HFT算法抢跑，强调投资需自行研究且无紧迫感。
@Craigstox 是的，这对散户来说是个很好的警告。高频交易(HFT)算法正在抢跑买单然后立即卖出。即使在我发布关于 $ETOR 的内容时，它也随机飙升了3%。 当我发布这类内容时并没有紧迫感（尤其是由于并非适合所有人，请务必自行研究(DYOR)）。
英文原文
@Craigstox Yep that’s a great warning for retail. HFT algorithms are frontrunning buy orders then just selling back. Even when I posted about $ETOR it randomly shot up 3%. There’s no rush when I post this type of stuff (and especially DYOR since it’s not for everyone).
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警告HFT抢跑散户，但坚持发布研究不受算法干扰。
如今，高频交易(HFT)会追踪我的每一条帖子。昨天它对市值57亿美元的$LEU也做了同样的操作。在我将$VPG与$TSLA的财报联系起来后，$VPG昨天上涨了9%。话虽如此，这看起来只是抢跑散户然后反向卖出。所以给其他人提个醒。如果像$OSS那样长期上涨，那只是信息发现。无论如何，我不会让算法阻碍我发布任何研究结果。
英文原文
HFT follow every one of my posts nowadays. It did the same for $LEU yesterday which is a $5.7B company. $VPG went up 9% yesterday after I quoted it with $TSLA earnings. That being said it looks like it’s just frontrunning retail -> selling back. So just a warning to other people. If it goes up longer term like $OSS that’s just information discovery Regardless I’m not going to let algorithms discourage me from posting any findings
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解释为何偏好对低IV大盘股使用杠杆期权。
@ShortsHoward 这次不是。我持有的是深度虚值(OTM)期权。像 $APPL 这样的大盘股隐含波动率(IV)极低，所以我偏好在这些股票上使用杠杆，小盘股则不然。
英文原文
@ShortsHoward Nope on this one I had way OTM options. Big cap like $APPL have extremely low IV so I like leverage on these, not so much for smaller companies.
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对比沃尔玛与美光基本面，建议关注价值而非择时。
我喜欢举这个例子： $WMT，这家袜子零售商的前向市盈率约为40倍，其营收同比增长约5.8%，与通胀水平一致。 $MU，这家领先的存储超级周期公司，前向市盈率约为8.4-8.7倍，营收同比增长133%，每股收益(EPS)同比增长319%。 我认为人们不应该在这里试图择时交易，只需关注基本面即可。
英文原文
I like to give this example: $WMT, the sock reseller has a forward P/E is ~40 and it's growing ~5.8% Y/Y in line with inflation. $MU, the leading memory supercycle company, has a forward P/E is 8.4-8.7 ish, off 133% revenue growth Y/Y, and EPS growth 319% Y/Y. I don't think people should be timing the market here, just look at fundamentals.