· 方法论

解析做市商长期波动率定价错误导致期权价值逆势上涨。

中文翻译

基本上,做市商错误地定价了长期波动率。短期波动率定价相当合理(波动率估算为66%),因此短期期权价格下跌。但他们在长期定价上搞砸了,随着他们提高波动率定价,期权价格随之上涨。这导致尽管标的股票下跌,所有期权价值依然上升(Vega扩张/维加扩张)。不知道这有没有帮上忙。

英文原文

Basically market makers mispriced long term volatility wrong. Short term is priced decently at 66% (estimate of volatility) hence why shorter dated is down. But long term they basically messed up, so as they increase the volatility pricing, option pricing goes up. And this causes all the option values to go up (Vega expansion) despite the underlying stock going down. Idk if that helped at all

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