· 方法论
两点： 1. 混淆利润率与总可寻址市场(TAM) 2. 你的陈述将净资产收益率(ROE)与股市回报混为一谈。 你说得对，收益=允许的ROE×费率基数(rate base)，且受监管公用事业的ROE是有上限的。不需要允许的ROE上升，只需费率基数爆炸式增长即可（现在正是如此，因为超大规模云服务商正在为电网升级买单）。 主要的一点是，单一指标ROE并不等同于多维度的股票表现。 股票百分比回报由每股收益(EPS)、降息带来的市盈率(P/E)扩张、未来预期增长（特别是关注来自AI推理+资本支出周期的数据中心增长）驱动。 鉴于巨大的AI支出加上降息顺风，我预计2026年将是异常值。
Two things: 1. Mixing up profit margin with TAM 2. Statement you made conflates ROE with stock market returns. You're correct in saying earnings = allowed roe × rate base and roe is capped for regulated utilities. Don't need allowed roe to go up, just rate base to explode (it is now since hyperscalers are paying for grid upgrades) The main thing is that one specific metric ROE, does not equate to multifaceted stock performance. Stock % returns are driven by EPS, P/E expansion from rate cuts, future expected growth (especially looking at DC growth from AI inference + capex cycle). Given the massive AI spend coupled with rate cut tailwinds, I expect 2026 to be the anomaly.