方法论
研究框架、选股思路、思维方式 · 共 668 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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认为现在还很早，自己更偏好少数纯标的和更稳健的名字。
还不算晚进场，实际上还非常早，正处在下一个拐点的起点。 如果让我现在选两只更小、更纯的标的，我个人会喜欢 $SIVE 和 $AEHR，再加一只 $AAOI 也许不错。 更稳一点的话，Win、$SOI、$MRVL 看起来都很扎实？ 可选名字其实很多……
英文原文
Not really late too the party, it’s extremely early and at the beginning of the next inflection point. I personally like $SIVE, $AEHR if I had to pick two more smaller purer play companies around now, maybe throw in $AAOI on the next drop. For safer, Win, $SOI, $MRVL seem solid? Quite a lot of names…
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批评用传统模型建模CPO放量期收入，分享如何识别光子学超级周期中的纯正概念股。
请停止尝试为2025-2026年CPO/SiPH放量期的收入建立模型了……当我上个月在约115美元（现已四舍五入到200美元）查看$TSEM时，前瞻市盈率压缩至约16-18倍（在成长情景下低至10-12倍）。同样的逻辑也适用于$AEHR/$SIVE/$SOI/Win Semi等其他标的。这是2026年上半年。量产的放量将出现在2026年下半年。我们正处在一个大规模超级周期的最早期阶段，而这些是我在光子学下一代架构变革中最纯正的概念股配置：用于测试、CW激光器、衬底和晶圆代工的公司，在光子学超级周期的新范式转换中占有一席之地。像$LITE或$AAOI这样我去年长期持有的公司已经跨越了多个周期。然而，最大的回报来自于提前预判哪些公司将在未来收入/TAM增长中获得最大收益（这部分尚未反映在当前股价中）。不是用过去2年的历史回报来计算公允价值。而且当我们看一个庞大的新型光子学TAM（lightcounting的牛市情景预测为1100亿美元以上），主要由使用CW激光器作为示例的架构驱动，或在良率方面遇到挑战。许多这类公司很可能会出现大幅重新定价。尤其是当我们看到下一代架构变革开始发生时，时间点大约在2026年下半年。
英文原文
Please stop trying to model 2025-2026 revenue for future CPO/SiPH ramp… When I looked at $TSEM back at ~$115 last month (round to $200 now). The forward p/e compressed to rates like ~16-18 (down to 10-12 in growth scenarios) Same applies to $AEHR / $SIVE / $SOI /Win Semi and other names. This is H1 2026. Volume ramp hits H2 2026. We’re at the very beginning of a massive supercycle and these are my more pure play exposure picks for the next architectural changes in photonics: For testing, cw lasers, substrates, and foundries in next paradigm shift in the photonics supercycle. Companies like $LITE or $AAOI that I’ve longed last year cover multiple cycles. However, the most returns comes from anticipating what benefits the most Mc wise relative to future revenue/TAM growth (not priced into current earnings). Not looking back at 2 year historical returns to calculate fair value. And when we’re looking at massive new photonics TAM ($110B+ bull case from lightcounting), largely driven from architecture that use CW lasers as an example or struggle with yields. A lot of these companies are likely going to re-rate hard. Especially when you look at the start of the next architectural changes, happening around H2 2026.
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认为 AEHR 未来量产爬坡是核心，当前财务无法体现。
$AEHR 的财报应该会很有意思。 我以前没见过这么多超大规模客户 / 光收发器（可能是 $AMD、$GOOGL、$INTC 等）公司去给一家 13 亿美元市值的小公司做资格认证。 我猜也许下一次财报里，我们会看到更多量产爬坡的指引？他们上周才刚开始和那家新的光收发器公司做资格认证。 如果这次财报就发生那当然更好。市场是前瞻的，所以很多重估其实现在就会开始。
英文原文
$AEHR earnings should be fun. I haven't seen so many hyperscalers/optical transceiver (prob $AMD, $GOOGL, $INTC, and others) companies qualifying a small $1.3B company before. My guess is maybe next earnings, we'll see more volume ramp projections? They just begun qualification with that new optical transceiver company last week. Would be nice if it happened this ER though. Markets are forward looking, so a lot of the repricing would happen around now imo.
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把 CPO / SiPh 测试瓶颈视作大机会，并点名相关公司。
Digitimes：台湾正试图解决 CPO 测试瓶颈，以便 AI 数据中心的 SiPh 规模化。 很大。重点。就在：“CPO 和硅光瓶颈” + “测试”。 $FORM、$KEYS、$ASE 和 $ATEYY 是这个瓶颈里比较热门的名字，比如光学对准。 另外还有 $AEHR，可以提供对 SiPh 良率 / 测试瓶颈的敞口。 预测显示，到 2026 年，超过 50% 的数据中心收发器销售将来自硅光模块（SiPh）。 现在 2026 年，资格认证周期还挺多的： 但量产爬坡随时都可能到来。
英文原文
Digitimes: Taiwan tackles CPO testing bottlenecks to scale SiPh for AI data centers. Huge. Emphasis. on: "CPO and Silicon Photonics bottleneck" + "Testing." $FORM, $KEYS, $ASE, and $ATEYY are popular ones ones in this bottleneck eg. optical alignment. Then there's $AEHR for exposure to SipH yields/testing bottlenecks. Forecasts show that by 2026, over 50% of data center transceiver sales will come from silicon photonics (SiPh) modules. Right now, in 2026, there's quite still a few qualification cycles: But expect mass order ramp to hit anytime.
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强调股票是正和游戏，只有稀释严重时才会伤害长期持有人。
也许你还没意识到，股票和 Melania Coin 不一样，是正和游戏。只要方向判断对了，长期每个人都会受益。 人们买 $LITE、$AEHR 或 $AAOI，并不会变成“退出流动性”；随着价值创造和营收增长，价格是会持续上涨的。 公司会创造经济价值，并通过分红之类的方式回馈散户股东。 当然也有例外，比如 $SNAP 或 $IREN，如果管理层试图通过过度 SBC / 稀释来抽干价值，那就会出问题。
英文原文
Not sure if you realize yet, but stocks are positive sum gain unlike Melania Coin. Everyone benefits long term if someone is right directionally. It's not exit liquidity when people buy $LITE, $AEHR, or $AAOI and the prices go up over time because of value creation + revenue growth. Companies create economic value and return that to retail shareholders through things like dividends. There's exceptions with things like $SNAP or $IREN if there's excessive SBC/dilution if management tries to drain value.
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批评银行借“保护资金”之名打压加密竞争。
Yields 和 Clarity Act 这事儿已经把虚伪写在脸上了。 银行嘴上说，申请银行牌照有一条路径，但背地里…… 这些同样的银行却在董事会后面游说，阻止任何加密相关公司真正拿到牌照。 看看 Custodia bank 的遭遇就知道了。还有现在所有申请银行执照的加密公司…… 这就等于一边说“去申请纽约 bitlicense 啊”，一边又拖了申请五年。 这个机制就是为了让银行把竞争挡在外面，好继续从利差里榨取散户。 绝不是为了“保护”客户资金。 那些告诉散户另一套说法的银行，其实是在当面撒谎。 我们眼看就要迎来一项对加密货币极具破坏性的法案，被银行游说推动通过。
英文原文
You’re witnessing hypocrisy in plain sight with Yields + Clarity Act. Banks say there’s a pathway to apply for a banking license but behind the scenes… But these same banks are the ones lobbying behind the board to prevent any crypto related companies from actually getting it. Just look at what happened Custodia bank. And all the crypto firms applying for banking charters now… It’s the equivalent of saying “just apply for New York bitlicense” while they been stalling applications for half a decade. This is set in place so banks ban competition so they can continue robbing retail off interest rate spread. Not to “safeguard” customer funds. Banks telling retail users otherwise are lying to your face. We’re about to witness one of the most destructive bills to crypto be passed from Bank lobbying
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强调美国要通过供应链武器化赢得对华竞争，而不是破坏盟友供应链。
我真的是 X 上最“美国优先”的人之一……我不可能是唯一一个意识到，对华冷战的关键在于供应链武器化的人。 但你们现在却把我们自己友好的供应链搞炸了……还把我们自己重要的关系也炸掉了。 比如加拿大，以前是我们的金毛猎犬，负责把一堆稀缺资源带回美国。 结果特朗普把这只狗狗直接丢到荒野里，让它自生自灭……这到底有什么道理？ 我们不需要对 Buddy 这只金毛施加更多杠杆。
英文原文
I'm literally one of the most America first people on X... I can't be the only person who realizes the key to winning the cold war with China is through supply chain weaponization. But you just blew up our on friendly supply chains... and nuked our own important relationships. Canada for example was our Golden Retriever fetching a bunch of precious resources back to America. Then Trump just sent our doggo off into the wilderness to fend for itself... for no sane reason? We don't need more leverage over Buddy, the golden retriever.
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认为美国应先稳固盟友供应链，再统一武器化对抗中俄。
到底是谁在写这些东西？ 我们不需要对日本、欧洲或韩国这些盟友施加更多杠杆。 我们需要把杠杆用在俄罗斯和中国身上。 - 在东南亚，老挝超过 40% 的加油站已经关闭， - 柬埔寨和泰国已经开始限量和价格管制， - 印度、巴基斯坦和孟加拉都在面对价格上涨和紧急节约， - 韩国 / 日本仍然暴露在供应中断风险里。 中国现在完全可以从俄罗斯拿石油，而俄罗斯的出口管制还被解除了…… 而中国现在的做法就像一战时美国那样在做军火商。 为什么我们要为了帮助俄罗斯 / 以色列，反过来搞砸我们自己的供应链？ 他们之所以叫盟友是有原因的，我们不需要再对他们施加更多杠杆。 如果你真想把这套东西武器化： -> 先确保自己的供应链，先把资金投到越南 / 南美等地的稀土和前驱材料上 -> 再把资金投到韩国 / 日本 / 加拿大 / 美国的精炼加工上 -> 先在委内瑞拉开发原油 / 加工能力 -> 再建立替代贸易路线： 这至少要 3-5 年。 然后你才可以去轰炸什么、去威胁欧洲的 $ASML、日本的 $ARM、美国的 $NVDA、台湾的 $TSM 这类对中国 / 俄罗斯的瓶颈。 总之： 美国优先依赖于： - 在泰国做好自身组装供应链， - 在韩国做好半导体， - 在日本做好化工， - 在台湾做好晶圆代工， - 在加拿大做好稀土， - 在欧洲做好高端设备， 还有其他环节，来让美国更强。 然后再把这一切统一武器化去对付我们的敌人。 你不能一边把我们自己的供应链和全球关系全炸了，一边又说美国正在变得更强大吧？
英文原文
Who is even writing this? We don't need more leverage over our allies like Japan, Europe, or South Korea. We need them over Russia and China. - In SEA over 40% of gas stations in Laos have closed, - Cambodia and Thailand have started rationing and price controls - India, Pakistan and Bangladesh face rising prices and emergency conservation - SK/Japan remain exposed to disruptions. China can get just get their oil from Russia. And Russia got their export control removed... And China is playing arms dealer like what US did in WW1 right now. Why are we screwing over our own supply chains to help Russia/Israel out? They're called allies for a reason, and we don't need more leverage over them. If you really wanted to weaponize this: -> Secure supply chains first, pour funding into rare earths/precursors like Vietnam/South America and other places. -> Pour funding into refinery processing from SK/Japan/Canada/US -> Develop crude/processing in Venezuela First -> Build out alternative trade route: Which will take 3-5 years min. Then you can go blowing stuff up then go threatening European $ASML, Japanese $ARM, US $NVDA, Taiwan $TSM type chokepoints over China/Russia all together. Again: America First relies on: -securing own supply chains in Assembly Thailand, -Semiconductors in South Korea, -Chemical from Japan, -Foundries in Taiwan, -Rare Earths from Canada, - high-end equipment from Europe and others to make United States stronger. Then you weaponize that all together against our enemies. You can't just blow OUR OWN SUPPLY CHAINS and Relations around the world up then say America is becoming more dominant?
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表示自己经历过加密市场，所以能更坦然看待波动，并相信信息公开是正和的。
很高兴听到这些正向反馈！ 我在 2016-2018 年左右也混过加密市场，所以现在 $AXTI 或 $AAOI 这种 +20% / -20% 的波动对我来说已经没什么感觉了。训练心态这方面确实很有帮助，让我面对一天跌 60% 也能稳住。 我相信股票是正和的……所以没必要把信息藏起来。 信息发现 / 整合本来就能让所有人受益，但在过去，信息获取通常一直在帮倒忙，因为机构会卡着不让散户看到，直到某些东西已经涨了 1000% 之后才放出来。
英文原文
Glad to hear the positive feedback! Yeah I was in the crypto market around 2016-2018, so any +20% -20% volatility now with $AXTI or $AAOI feels like nothing. So it's definitely helped train my mentality stuff drop 60% in a day. I believe stocks are positive sum... so there's no reason to try and hide information. Everyone benefits from information discovery/synthesis, but before access to information has worked largely worked against retail given gatekeeping from institutions until after somethings gone up 1000%.
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认为有 ETF 之后不再需要 MSTR，用它只是为了抢跑减半行情。
@whambamabraham 我现在不会再碰 $MSTR 了，因为 ETF 已经有了。我当年只是用它来抢跑比特币减半，那时还没有 $IBIT。 要么就是买矿机来博比特币敞口，我只是运气好选对了。
英文原文
@whambamabraham I wouldn't touch $MSTR anymore because ETFs exist now. I used it to frontrun Bitcoin halving since $IBIT wasn't around back then. It was either that or long miners for Bitcoin exposure, and I got lucky choosing the right one.
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认为太多超大客户在资格认证 AEHR，量产一切就会被重估。
我从没见过一家公司被这么多超大规模客户 / AI 公司同时做资格认证……感觉像是 $AMD、$GOOGL、$INTC 之类的，还有更多光学公司，排队名单实在太夸张了。 只要他们一切换到量产订单，这一季或者下一季的 $AEHR 财报大概率都会像火箭一样冲出去。 至于时点，我帮不了你。长期看我觉得它会高很多，短期我不确定。
英文原文
I haven't seen a company get so many hyperscalers/AI companies qualifying it before... think it's $AMD, $GOOGL, $INTC, and more optical companies, so line up is kinda insane. This or next $AEHR earnings will likely hit like a truck once they all switch to volume orders. As for timing, can't help you there. Long term I think it will go much higher, short term not sure.
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认为自己在 X 前就表现不错，最近看好的标的上涨说明思路对了。
@kevstern1 因为我在加入 X 之前就已经做得很好了，不是吗？ 我一直看到有人试图贬低我最近做多的票，比如 $AXTI、$LITE 或 $TSEM，说那只是算法和平台带来的。 也许它们上涨 800%+，只是因为这个想法本身就是对的。
英文原文
@kevstern1 Because I was doing just as well even before I joined X? Keep seeing people try and diminish recent longs like $AXTI, $LITE, or $TSEM due to algorithms and platforms. Maybe it’s up 800%+ because the idea was correct.
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批评有人靠不可验证信息获利还在大跌后劝人长期持有。
他一边靠编造无法验证的信息赚钱，一边在发完帖后又把内容删掉，这已经够糟了。 更糟的是，他这么做还会把所有散户资金一起带走。 然后在大家亏了 99% 之后，还告诉所有人要“hodl 并相信管理层”，而且还伴随着持续稀释。
英文原文
It’s one thing he profits from making up unverifiable information then deletes his post after. It’s even worse that what he does wipes out all retail capital alongside it. And he tells everyone to “hodl and trust in management” for multiple years after people are down 99% and there’s ongoing dilution.
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感谢别人为自己建基金，但仍强调买入时点很重要。
@bendover 有一个 5 万美元的专门基金围绕我的帖子在运作，这真的太让人受宠若惊了，不过在下单之前还是请先自己做研究！ 而且买入时点也同样非常重要，尤其是我提到像 $AAOI 到 $AEHR 这类名字时。
英文原文
@bendover Very flattering having a $50k dedicated fund around my posts but pls do ur own research before entering any positions first! Also timing the buy is also very important too if I mention anything from $AAOI to $AEHR.
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解释封闭式基金与底层持仓可能脱节。
@k_a_y_b_e_e_ @harshparikh_16 $VCX 是封闭式交易基金，所以它和底层持仓会更容易脱节。
英文原文
@k_a_y_b_e_e_ @harshparikh_16 $VCX is closed traded fund so it can get more detached from underlying holdings.
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解释 ETF 定价是按净值计算，不是按持仓简单相加。
@harshparikh_16 这是个 ETF……不是那样运作的。它是按净值（NAV）计算的。
英文原文
@harshparikh_16 It's an ETF... doesn't work that way. It's calculated based on NAV.
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把一篮子建议等权，测试粉丝想法一年后的结果。
@Jess252530 这是给“Serenity 粉丝最爱抛物线增长 ETF”准备的。 我就会把大家推荐的名字等权打包，然后看看一年后的结果会怎样。
英文原文
@Jess252530 This is for the "Serenity's Followers Favorite Stock Parabolic Growth ETF". Just going to equal weight a bunch of suggestions and see how they turn out in a year.
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请大家选出下一只高确定性高增长股。
好了各位，我很好奇你们对下一只 1350%+ 一年回报的 $SNDK，或者 2918% 一年回报的 $AXTI 有什么看法。 如果必须只选一只、极高 conviction、抛物线式增长的股票…… 你会选哪只，为什么？
英文原文
Okay chat. I'm curious what your thoughts are on the next 1350%+ 1Y return $SNDK or 2918% 1Y return $AXTI. If you have to choose 1 very high conviction, hyperbolic growth stock... What would it be and why?
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强调股票价格不等于市值，稀释下技术分析没意义。
@Belfort_Trading $IREN 的股价不重要，重要的是市值。 几个月后股价可能是 17 美元，但市值还是一样。 在存在过度稀释和基本面持续恶化的情况下，技术分析是没用的。
英文原文
@Belfort_Trading $IREN share price doesn’t matter. What matters is marketcap. The price could be $17 in a few months while MC stays same. TA’s don’t work when there’s excessive dilution and eroding fundamentals working against you
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批评特朗普破坏全球能源供应链，强调美国离不开全球供应链。
特朗普知道自己在干什么吗…… 他只是为了追着伊朗领导层玩打地鼠，就把全世界的能源供应链炸了？ 这不只是“美国没事”这么简单。 你猜上游前驱体、先进半导体以及其他东西都是在哪造的？ 现在几乎没有什么是真正“美国制造”的。 我们完全依赖日本、台湾、马来西亚、韩国这些伙伴提供稀土到晶圆代工的一切。 这场战争的明确受益者是： 1. 以色列 2. 俄罗斯 甚至从长期看，伊朗也可能受益，因为他们可以借助中国重建基础设施，而且油价 / 海峡关税也让他们更有钱了。 我们本来应该增强所有盟友的实力，而不是把他们全都坑了去帮俄罗斯和以色列。 “美国优先”政策的残酷现实是：它也包括保护美国的全球供应链。 现在还不算太晚： 但你不能一边把全世界的能源贸易都炸了，一边又说只有美国自己就行。
英文原文
Does Trump know… He just blew up the world’s energy supply chains for attempting wack-a-mole with Iranian leadership? It’s not just about “US is fine”. Guess where all the upstream precursors, advanced semiconductors, and others are made? Almost nothing is actually “Made in America” yet. We completely rely on all our partners from Japan, Taiwan, Malaysia, Korea for rare earths to foundries. The clear beneficiaries of this War: 1. Israel 2. Russia Maybe even Iran long term since they can use China to rebuild infrastructure and they’re richer from oil / tariffs on the strait. We’re supposed to be strengthening all our allies, not ******* them over to help Russia and Israel. Harsh reality is “America First” policy also includes securing America’s global supply chains. It’s still not too late: But you can’t just blow up the rest of the world’s energy trade, then just go out and say US alone is fine.
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认为大多数基金经理跑不赢标普，主要是靠费用而非真正能力。
@0xInitialAce 我不觉得大多数基金经理真的知道自己在干什么。 他们只是靠那套玩法混上去，然后收管理费，长期跑输指数而已。 有个有趣的数据：在 15 年的时间跨度里，88% 到超过 92% 的基金经理都跑不赢标普 500。
英文原文
@0xInitialAce I don't think majority of fund managers know what they're doing. They just managed to grift their way there and take management fees for underperforming the index. Fun fact, 88% to over 92% of fund managers don't beat the S&P 500 index returns over 15 year periods.
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认为 AI 行业本身没问题，但 OpenAI 把合同义务武器化了。
是啊，Gemini 本来会在日常使用里取代 OpenAI。Opus 负责编码。Minimax 负责 agentic 场景。 AI 行业本身其实没问题。 但 OpenAI 通过 1 万亿美元以上的合同义务把潜在传染风险武器化了，所以如果它倒下，整个链条都会跟着被拖下去。
英文原文
Yeah… Gemini would have replaced OpenAI in daily usage. Opus with coding. Minimax for agentic use cases. AI industry itself would be fine. But OpenAI managed to weaponize potential contagion based on 1T+ in contractual obligations so they would bring everything down with it if they went down.
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认为 OpenAI 是世代级产品，但过度合同义务带来了系统性风险。
我确实认为 OpenAI 是行业领导者，而且在打造一款世代级产品。 让我觉得不舒服的是，他们在没有足够资金的情况下就建立了 1 万亿美元以上的合同义务。 而且市场又是根据这些义务去重估其他一切，所以他们其实像伊朗那样把自己的位置武器化了，拿去做融资。 因为如果他们那轮融资没拉起来，很多公司都会出事。
英文原文
I do think OpenAi is a leader for sure and are building a generational product. What left a bad taste in my mouth is how they created $1T+ in contractual obligations without the funding. And because markets re-rated everything based off of those, they managed to weaponize their position like Iran did for fundraising. Because if they couldn’t raise the round, so many companies would be in trouble.
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把 OpenAI 比作地缘武器化的主体，认为 AI capex 还会延续。
OpenAI 就是科技界的伊朗。 如果他们没资金，却还造成了那么大的连锁反应——就像伊朗把无人机送到所有邻国一样——那会非常危险…… 从 $MSFT 的算力 backlog、$ORCL Stargate、$AMD 交易、$NVDA 交易、$CRWV 交易、$AMZN 交易，到 SoftBank 交易。 再加上 Cerebras 和很多私有公司的交易。 这些都足以说明，如果它倒下，支撑这些公司估值的很大一部分也会一起崩。 OpenAI 融了 1220 亿美元，我猜这部分也在某种程度上武器化了这种连锁反应，就像伊朗在控制海峡时那样。 所以 AI capex 的这波行情大概率还会再持续至少一年。 它们是 AI 牛市的起点；如果它们现在出问题，反而会成为戳破泡沫的人。
英文原文
OpenAI is the tech equivalent of Iran. They would have caused so much contagion - like Iran sending drones to all their neighbors - with funding they didn’t have…. From $MSFT compute backlog, $ORCL Stargate, $AMD deals, $NVDA deals, $CRWV deals, $AMZN deals. SoftBank deals. Deals with private companies like Cerebras and many others. So much so, that if they went down, so would a huge part of what gave these companies their valuations. OpenAI raised a whopping $122B, my guess is partly weaponizing this contagion like what Iran is doing to the Strait. So now the AI capex spend rally is likely to last another 1 year min. They’re the first to start the AI rally; and if they go under, at this point they’ll be the one to pop the bubble.
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说自己目前在权益回报上还没达到目标，但更重要的是自己创造价值。
@m1iles 遗憾的是，目前在权益回报上还没到那种程度（虽然流动性差很多）。 所以自己去创造价值其实特别重要！X 目前还只是一个副业。
英文原文
@m1iles Sadly nothing close equity return wise yet (although much less liquid). That’s why it’s extremely valuable to go and generate value yourself! X is still a side hobby.
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回顾自己对 RPI 的收入预测比分析师更乐观，结果验证了。
@AscendingLife3 是啊，我当时预计营收增长 55%，而分析师全都在说 14%。 结果 $RPI 最后做到了 58%。
英文原文
@AscendingLife3 Yeah I was projecting 55% revenue growth while analysts were all saying 14%. $RPI ended up hitting 58%.
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批评外行和媒体拿财务指标误判光子学、CPO 与 RPI 这类高增长标的。
请别再发消息问我那些随机散户或者记者对 $AXTI 或 $SIVE 的分析了。 对于 $AXTI： 大多数人根本不知道自己在说什么。 三星代工和 $LITE 的 InP fab 完全是供应链的不同环节，这就像把 NAND 和 DRAM 混成一个存储类别一样。 就算说 Sumitomo 会取代 AXT，也说明这些人根本不懂上游的开采 / 加工 / 坩埚瓶颈，而 InP 衬底级公司像 $COHR 或 Sumitomo 本来就不是干这个的。 对于 $SIVE： 这就是 2027 年以后 CPO 规模化放量的质变点。 我看到很多对光子学完全不懂的人，拿毛利率、烧钱速度，以及前几年的营收甚至今年的营收来分析。 可 2027 年以后才会迎来最大的一次架构拐点。 如果你看 $MRVL Celestial 的时间点，它们 2027 年开始放量，2028、2029 年还会指数级增长。 所以我才说 $SIVE 有一天能成为 100 亿美元以上的公司，因为我看的是前瞻增长，而且这是最早能切入的位置。 我做的事情就是找 alpha： 市场可能像那些把 $RPI 前瞻增速说成 14-17% 的分析师一样，把它错定价了。 然后我建模成 55%，结果事实是 58%。 一个是光子学瓶颈，自有其原因。 另一个是被设计进 Jabil 和 Celestial 的，自有其原因。
英文原文
Pls stop tagging me in stuff where random retail investors or journalists tries doing an analysis on $AXTI or $SIVE. For $AXTI: Majority of folks have 0 clue what they’re talking about. Samsung Foundry or $LITE InP fab are completely different parts of the supply chain and this is like conflating NAND and DRAM as memory. Even talking about Sumitomo displacing AXT means they don’t understand the upstream extraction/processing/crucible bottlenecks that InP substrate level players like $COHR or Sumitomo don’t do. For $SIVE: This is mass inflection point of CPO scale up 2027 onwards. I have idiots out there with no understanding of photonics looking at gross margin, burn rate, and former revenue numbers for previous years or even the current year. For the biggest architectural inflection 2027 onwards. If you look at $MRVL Celestial point its starting volume ramp 2027 and exponentially increasing 2028, 2029. That’s why I said $SIVE can be a $10B+ company one day since it’s looking at forward growth and this is the earliest out on. What I do is find alpha: This is what markets might have mispriced like all the analysts saying 14-17% fwd growth with $RPI. Then I modeled 55% and it turned out to be 58%. One is a photonics bottleneck for a reason. The other is designed into Jabil and Celestial for a reason.
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说自己被质疑，因为 CPO 放量是 2027 年而他们在提前布局。
@JustinasRoland0 我之前把那人拉黑了，因为他根本不知道自己在说什么。 CPO 的放量是 2027 年，这就是我在提前布局；但还有一堆人还在试图拿新前沿技术（比如 CW 激光）以前的盈利和烧钱速度来建模。
英文原文
@JustinasRoland0 Blocked the guy earlier because they have no clue what they're talking about. CPO ramp is 2027, this is frontrunning it, and there's idiots out there still trying to model previous earnings and burn rate of new frontier technologies like CW laser tech.
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用类比解释 AXT 的供应链位置，反驳把不同环节混为一谈的说法。
我应该不是唯一一个在想这个的人……对吧？ 这样的类比能帮助普通人更理解 $AXTI，因为这件事非常复杂。 外面有太多错误信息了，比如说三星新的晶圆代工在和 $AXTI 竞争，或者 $LITE 新的 InP 产能在和 $AXTI 竞争…… 它们都只是供应链的不同环节。 而 AXT 处在整个链条的最上游，上游中的最上游。
英文原文
I couldn't have been the only one thinking about it... right? Analogies like these help regulars understand $AXTI more since it's very nuanced. There's just tons of disinformation out there like Samsung's new foundry is competing with $AXTI.. or $LITE new inp capacity competing with $AXTI.. They're all different parts of the supply chain. And AXT is the very very very top of it.
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把 AXT 比作霍尔木兹海峡，强调其在 InP 供应链中的关键卡口地位。
“AXTI 海峡”来了： 全球 20% 的原油总供应都要经过霍尔木兹海峡。 它是全球能源贸易中最关键的单一咽喉点。 现在……如果把这个概念放大两倍，把 $LITE 和 $GOOGL 当成接受方，而不是韩国 / 日本呢？ 欢迎来到 $AXTI。 他们控制着 40% 的 InP 供应链。 无论是原材料还是加工环节。两个彼此独立的瓶颈（可以把它想成伊朗先产油，再通过海峡运输出去）。 所以，如果你把霍尔木兹石油瓶颈的咽喉点再乘 2 倍（但放到 AI 行业的光子学层面，而不是国家经济层面）： 你就会突然意识到 AXT 在光子学市场里的咽喉地位（以及中国的咽喉地位）。 当前估值来自它的战略控制力。而真正的价值在于，AXT 通过提价去行使这种控制力： 因为光子学支撑的 AI 建设，在规模化上没有别的选择。
英文原文
Introducing the Strait of $AXTI: 20% of the world's total global oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. It is the single most critical chokepoint in the global energy trade. Now... Double That with $LITE and $GOOGL instead of South Korea/Japan as recipients? Welcome to $AXTI. They control 40% of the InP supply chain. Both in the raw materials and processing. Two separate different bottlenecks (think of Iran producing oil, then shipping it through the Strait). So, if you 2x the chokepoint with the Hormuz oil bottleneck (but on AI industry level for photonics, instead of Country economies): You suddenly realize AXT's chokepoint (and China) on the photonics market. The current valuation is derived from strategic control. Then the main value comes when AXT exerts its control with price hikes: Since the AI buildout with photonics has no other choice at scale.