方法论
研究框架、选股思路、思维方式 · 共 651 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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请大家选出下一只高确定性高增长股。
好了各位，我很好奇你们对下一只 1350%+ 一年回报的 $SNDK，或者 2918% 一年回报的 $AXTI 有什么看法。 如果必须只选一只、极高 conviction、抛物线式增长的股票…… 你会选哪只，为什么？
英文原文
Okay chat. I'm curious what your thoughts are on the next 1350%+ 1Y return $SNDK or 2918% 1Y return $AXTI. If you have to choose 1 very high conviction, hyperbolic growth stock... What would it be and why?
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强调股票价格不等于市值，稀释下技术分析没意义。
@Belfort_Trading $IREN 的股价不重要，重要的是市值。 几个月后股价可能是 17 美元，但市值还是一样。 在存在过度稀释和基本面持续恶化的情况下，技术分析是没用的。
英文原文
@Belfort_Trading $IREN share price doesn’t matter. What matters is marketcap. The price could be $17 in a few months while MC stays same. TA’s don’t work when there’s excessive dilution and eroding fundamentals working against you
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批评特朗普破坏全球能源供应链，强调美国离不开全球供应链。
特朗普知道自己在干什么吗…… 他只是为了追着伊朗领导层玩打地鼠，就把全世界的能源供应链炸了？ 这不只是“美国没事”这么简单。 你猜上游前驱体、先进半导体以及其他东西都是在哪造的？ 现在几乎没有什么是真正“美国制造”的。 我们完全依赖日本、台湾、马来西亚、韩国这些伙伴提供稀土到晶圆代工的一切。 这场战争的明确受益者是： 1. 以色列 2. 俄罗斯 甚至从长期看，伊朗也可能受益，因为他们可以借助中国重建基础设施，而且油价 / 海峡关税也让他们更有钱了。 我们本来应该增强所有盟友的实力，而不是把他们全都坑了去帮俄罗斯和以色列。 “美国优先”政策的残酷现实是：它也包括保护美国的全球供应链。 现在还不算太晚： 但你不能一边把全世界的能源贸易都炸了，一边又说只有美国自己就行。
英文原文
Does Trump know… He just blew up the world’s energy supply chains for attempting wack-a-mole with Iranian leadership? It’s not just about “US is fine”. Guess where all the upstream precursors, advanced semiconductors, and others are made? Almost nothing is actually “Made in America” yet. We completely rely on all our partners from Japan, Taiwan, Malaysia, Korea for rare earths to foundries. The clear beneficiaries of this War: 1. Israel 2. Russia Maybe even Iran long term since they can use China to rebuild infrastructure and they’re richer from oil / tariffs on the strait. We’re supposed to be strengthening all our allies, not ******* them over to help Russia and Israel. Harsh reality is “America First” policy also includes securing America’s global supply chains. It’s still not too late: But you can’t just blow up the rest of the world’s energy trade, then just go out and say US alone is fine.
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认为大多数基金经理跑不赢标普，主要是靠费用而非真正能力。
@0xInitialAce 我不觉得大多数基金经理真的知道自己在干什么。 他们只是靠那套玩法混上去，然后收管理费，长期跑输指数而已。 有个有趣的数据：在 15 年的时间跨度里，88% 到超过 92% 的基金经理都跑不赢标普 500。
英文原文
@0xInitialAce I don't think majority of fund managers know what they're doing. They just managed to grift their way there and take management fees for underperforming the index. Fun fact, 88% to over 92% of fund managers don't beat the S&P 500 index returns over 15 year periods.
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认为 AI 行业本身没问题，但 OpenAI 把合同义务武器化了。
是啊，Gemini 本来会在日常使用里取代 OpenAI。Opus 负责编码。Minimax 负责 agentic 场景。 AI 行业本身其实没问题。 但 OpenAI 通过 1 万亿美元以上的合同义务把潜在传染风险武器化了，所以如果它倒下，整个链条都会跟着被拖下去。
英文原文
Yeah… Gemini would have replaced OpenAI in daily usage. Opus with coding. Minimax for agentic use cases. AI industry itself would be fine. But OpenAI managed to weaponize potential contagion based on 1T+ in contractual obligations so they would bring everything down with it if they went down.
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认为 OpenAI 是世代级产品，但过度合同义务带来了系统性风险。
我确实认为 OpenAI 是行业领导者，而且在打造一款世代级产品。 让我觉得不舒服的是，他们在没有足够资金的情况下就建立了 1 万亿美元以上的合同义务。 而且市场又是根据这些义务去重估其他一切，所以他们其实像伊朗那样把自己的位置武器化了，拿去做融资。 因为如果他们那轮融资没拉起来，很多公司都会出事。
英文原文
I do think OpenAi is a leader for sure and are building a generational product. What left a bad taste in my mouth is how they created $1T+ in contractual obligations without the funding. And because markets re-rated everything based off of those, they managed to weaponize their position like Iran did for fundraising. Because if they couldn’t raise the round, so many companies would be in trouble.
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把 OpenAI 比作地缘武器化的主体，认为 AI capex 还会延续。
OpenAI 就是科技界的伊朗。 如果他们没资金，却还造成了那么大的连锁反应——就像伊朗把无人机送到所有邻国一样——那会非常危险…… 从 $MSFT 的算力 backlog、$ORCL Stargate、$AMD 交易、$NVDA 交易、$CRWV 交易、$AMZN 交易，到 SoftBank 交易。 再加上 Cerebras 和很多私有公司的交易。 这些都足以说明，如果它倒下，支撑这些公司估值的很大一部分也会一起崩。 OpenAI 融了 1220 亿美元，我猜这部分也在某种程度上武器化了这种连锁反应，就像伊朗在控制海峡时那样。 所以 AI capex 的这波行情大概率还会再持续至少一年。 它们是 AI 牛市的起点；如果它们现在出问题，反而会成为戳破泡沫的人。
英文原文
OpenAI is the tech equivalent of Iran. They would have caused so much contagion - like Iran sending drones to all their neighbors - with funding they didn’t have…. From $MSFT compute backlog, $ORCL Stargate, $AMD deals, $NVDA deals, $CRWV deals, $AMZN deals. SoftBank deals. Deals with private companies like Cerebras and many others. So much so, that if they went down, so would a huge part of what gave these companies their valuations. OpenAI raised a whopping $122B, my guess is partly weaponizing this contagion like what Iran is doing to the Strait. So now the AI capex spend rally is likely to last another 1 year min. They’re the first to start the AI rally; and if they go under, at this point they’ll be the one to pop the bubble.
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说自己目前在权益回报上还没达到目标，但更重要的是自己创造价值。
@m1iles 遗憾的是，目前在权益回报上还没到那种程度（虽然流动性差很多）。 所以自己去创造价值其实特别重要！X 目前还只是一个副业。
英文原文
@m1iles Sadly nothing close equity return wise yet (although much less liquid). That’s why it’s extremely valuable to go and generate value yourself! X is still a side hobby.
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回顾自己对 RPI 的收入预测比分析师更乐观，结果验证了。
@AscendingLife3 是啊，我当时预计营收增长 55%，而分析师全都在说 14%。 结果 $RPI 最后做到了 58%。
英文原文
@AscendingLife3 Yeah I was projecting 55% revenue growth while analysts were all saying 14%. $RPI ended up hitting 58%.
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批评外行和媒体拿财务指标误判光子学、CPO 与 RPI 这类高增长标的。
请别再发消息问我那些随机散户或者记者对 $AXTI 或 $SIVE 的分析了。 对于 $AXTI： 大多数人根本不知道自己在说什么。 三星代工和 $LITE 的 InP fab 完全是供应链的不同环节，这就像把 NAND 和 DRAM 混成一个存储类别一样。 就算说 Sumitomo 会取代 AXT，也说明这些人根本不懂上游的开采 / 加工 / 坩埚瓶颈，而 InP 衬底级公司像 $COHR 或 Sumitomo 本来就不是干这个的。 对于 $SIVE： 这就是 2027 年以后 CPO 规模化放量的质变点。 我看到很多对光子学完全不懂的人，拿毛利率、烧钱速度，以及前几年的营收甚至今年的营收来分析。 可 2027 年以后才会迎来最大的一次架构拐点。 如果你看 $MRVL Celestial 的时间点，它们 2027 年开始放量，2028、2029 年还会指数级增长。 所以我才说 $SIVE 有一天能成为 100 亿美元以上的公司，因为我看的是前瞻增长，而且这是最早能切入的位置。 我做的事情就是找 alpha： 市场可能像那些把 $RPI 前瞻增速说成 14-17% 的分析师一样，把它错定价了。 然后我建模成 55%，结果事实是 58%。 一个是光子学瓶颈，自有其原因。 另一个是被设计进 Jabil 和 Celestial 的，自有其原因。
英文原文
Pls stop tagging me in stuff where random retail investors or journalists tries doing an analysis on $AXTI or $SIVE. For $AXTI: Majority of folks have 0 clue what they’re talking about. Samsung Foundry or $LITE InP fab are completely different parts of the supply chain and this is like conflating NAND and DRAM as memory. Even talking about Sumitomo displacing AXT means they don’t understand the upstream extraction/processing/crucible bottlenecks that InP substrate level players like $COHR or Sumitomo don’t do. For $SIVE: This is mass inflection point of CPO scale up 2027 onwards. I have idiots out there with no understanding of photonics looking at gross margin, burn rate, and former revenue numbers for previous years or even the current year. For the biggest architectural inflection 2027 onwards. If you look at $MRVL Celestial point its starting volume ramp 2027 and exponentially increasing 2028, 2029. That’s why I said $SIVE can be a $10B+ company one day since it’s looking at forward growth and this is the earliest out on. What I do is find alpha: This is what markets might have mispriced like all the analysts saying 14-17% fwd growth with $RPI. Then I modeled 55% and it turned out to be 58%. One is a photonics bottleneck for a reason. The other is designed into Jabil and Celestial for a reason.
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说自己被质疑，因为 CPO 放量是 2027 年而他们在提前布局。
@JustinasRoland0 我之前把那人拉黑了，因为他根本不知道自己在说什么。 CPO 的放量是 2027 年，这就是我在提前布局；但还有一堆人还在试图拿新前沿技术（比如 CW 激光）以前的盈利和烧钱速度来建模。
英文原文
@JustinasRoland0 Blocked the guy earlier because they have no clue what they're talking about. CPO ramp is 2027, this is frontrunning it, and there's idiots out there still trying to model previous earnings and burn rate of new frontier technologies like CW laser tech.
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用类比解释 AXT 的供应链位置，反驳把不同环节混为一谈的说法。
我应该不是唯一一个在想这个的人……对吧？ 这样的类比能帮助普通人更理解 $AXTI，因为这件事非常复杂。 外面有太多错误信息了，比如说三星新的晶圆代工在和 $AXTI 竞争，或者 $LITE 新的 InP 产能在和 $AXTI 竞争…… 它们都只是供应链的不同环节。 而 AXT 处在整个链条的最上游，上游中的最上游。
英文原文
I couldn't have been the only one thinking about it... right? Analogies like these help regulars understand $AXTI more since it's very nuanced. There's just tons of disinformation out there like Samsung's new foundry is competing with $AXTI.. or $LITE new inp capacity competing with $AXTI.. They're all different parts of the supply chain. And AXT is the very very very top of it.
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把 AXT 比作霍尔木兹海峡，强调其在 InP 供应链中的关键卡口地位。
“AXTI 海峡”来了： 全球 20% 的原油总供应都要经过霍尔木兹海峡。 它是全球能源贸易中最关键的单一咽喉点。 现在……如果把这个概念放大两倍，把 $LITE 和 $GOOGL 当成接受方，而不是韩国 / 日本呢？ 欢迎来到 $AXTI。 他们控制着 40% 的 InP 供应链。 无论是原材料还是加工环节。两个彼此独立的瓶颈（可以把它想成伊朗先产油，再通过海峡运输出去）。 所以，如果你把霍尔木兹石油瓶颈的咽喉点再乘 2 倍（但放到 AI 行业的光子学层面，而不是国家经济层面）： 你就会突然意识到 AXT 在光子学市场里的咽喉地位（以及中国的咽喉地位）。 当前估值来自它的战略控制力。而真正的价值在于，AXT 通过提价去行使这种控制力： 因为光子学支撑的 AI 建设，在规模化上没有别的选择。
英文原文
Introducing the Strait of $AXTI: 20% of the world's total global oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. It is the single most critical chokepoint in the global energy trade. Now... Double That with $LITE and $GOOGL instead of South Korea/Japan as recipients? Welcome to $AXTI. They control 40% of the InP supply chain. Both in the raw materials and processing. Two separate different bottlenecks (think of Iran producing oil, then shipping it through the Strait). So, if you 2x the chokepoint with the Hormuz oil bottleneck (but on AI industry level for photonics, instead of Country economies): You suddenly realize AXT's chokepoint (and China) on the photonics market. The current valuation is derived from strategic control. Then the main value comes when AXT exerts its control with price hikes: Since the AI buildout with photonics has no other choice at scale.
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呼吁先把稀土供应链补齐，不要本末倒置。
我们能不能……先把稀土供应链搞定，再做别的？ 为什么我们能花几十亿美元在迈阿密的玻璃塔楼上？ 却不能补贴我们最重要的 AI、机器人和太空上游稀土供应链…… 而这些链条完全依赖中国 / 俄罗斯？ 我们连一些最关键瓶颈的国内大规模加工都没有，比如从人形机器人机体到 AI 应用所需的铟 / 锗 / 镓。 只挑几只像 $MP 到 $USAR 这样的票然后说“我们做了点事”，远远不够。 稀土瓶颈是中国给美国埋的一个定时炸弹。 美国的优先级完全搞反了。
英文原文
Can we please… just secure our rare earths supply chains first before we do this? How are we able to spend billions on glass towers in Miami? But not subsidize all our most important AI, Robotics, and Space rare earth upstream supply chains… That are entirely dependent on China/Russia? We literally have no domestic processing at scale for some of the most vital chokepoints from Humanoids bodies to indium/germanium/gallium for AI applications. Picking a few like $MP to $USAR and saying “we did something” is not enough. The Rare Earths chokepoint is a ticking time bomb that China set over the US. America has its prioritizes completely wrong
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主张与其烧昂贵导弹，不如更多投入定向能武器。
或者……与其把几十亿美元花在“更便宜的导弹”上。 毕竟现在用 300 到 400 万美元的爱国者导弹去打便宜无人机，根本不奏效。 我们是不是该更多研究并部署像 $LASR 和 HPM 这样的定向能武器？ 用 HEL（高能激光）的话： 它就是一束光……砰砰。每发 3.5 美元。 用 HPM（高功率微波）的话——它是一道能量锥，用来打无人机蜂群。 也许每次脉冲 0.05 美元左右？弹药基本等于无限。 虽然 $LMT 和 $RTX 也在做这些，但感觉我们只是一直在买昂贵导弹去给它们送钱。 如果把原本花在导弹上的数十亿美元，转去资助这类无限弹药的新技术…… 也许早就能把定向能武器做得更成熟了（比如解决驻留时间、天气变化、射程、功率这些问题）。 在伊朗这种延长冲突里，用几十亿美元的导弹去打便宜无人机，显然不可持续。
英文原文
Or... instead of spending billions on "cheaper missiles". Since blowing $3-4M Patriots to down cheap drones isn't working. We start to do more research and deploy Energy Directed Weapons like $LASR and HPM? With HEL (High Energy Lasers): It's a beam of light... pew pew. $3.50 per shot. With HPM (High Powered Microwaves) - It's a cone of energy for drone swarms. Maybe ~$0.05 per burst? Ammo is basically free and infinite. Even though $LMT and $RTX are developing these too... it's like we just keep buying expensive missiles to line their pockets at this point. More funding around this infinite ammo new tech, instead used for all those missiles... Probably could have made energy weapons better by now (eg. fixing problems with dwell time, weather changes, range, power). Firing billions of dollars of missiles at cheap drones clearly is not sustainable for extended conflicts in Iran.
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提醒市场很残酷，不要在地缘风险下过度加杠杆。
这市场太残酷了。 如果你的股票名字里没有 Win，比如某只晶圆代工…… 那大概率宏观因素会比个股基本面更重要，比如 $MU 和 $META。 只是提醒一下，这时候不要上杠杆，也不要不负责任地过度加仓。 尤其是如果有限地面入侵随时可能开始……这可能意味着冲突延长和供应链进一步受扰。
英文原文
This market is brutal. If your stock doesn’t have Win in its name like a certain foundry… More likely than not macro > individual stock fundamentals from $MU and $META. Just a good reminder not to margin or irresponsibly overleverage during this time. Especially as a limited ground invasion might begin anytime… this might foreshadow extended conflicts and potential supply chain disruption.
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认为稀土对国家安全至关重要，媒体不该煽动公众反对。
是的，$MP 对国家安全至关重要。中国再次把稀土武器化来对付我们。 FT 和其他新闻媒体去煽动美国民众……这真是蠢到不行。 美国政府花钱去保障我们的供应链，让我们不再依赖俄罗斯和中国，这有什么问题吗？ 他们到底是不是傻？
英文原文
Yes $MP is paramount to national security. Again China has weaponized Rare Earths against us. It’s incredibly stupid for FT and other news outlets to go and get rile up the US population… At the US government spending to secure our supply chains??? So we don’t rely on Russia and China? Are they all stupid?
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批评 FT 对稀土投资的负面标题，认为这是正确的政策方向。
这是我看过 FT 最离谱的一条标题。 “美国在稀土交易中押注数十亿美元于未经验证的公司” 废话。 它们之所以“未经验证”，不就是因为我们什么都没有吗？ $USAR 到 $MP 都极其重要。 因为美国在 AI、机器人到太空所需的上游产能 / 炼厂上几乎什么都不拥有。我们依赖从加拿大到中国的其他国家。 这大概是特朗普政府最好的国内政策动作：资助这些没有盈利的项目。 目的就是确保美国供应链主权，而不是继续依赖俄罗斯和中国。 FT 这么写，感觉就是在故意激美国民众…… 他们明明是在通过措辞，抹黑那些真正能帮助美国独立的伟大努力。
英文原文
This is the most egregious headline I’ve read from FT. “US BETS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ON UNPROVEN GROUPS IN RARE EARTHS DEALS” No sht. Maybe they’re “unproven” since we have nothing?? $USAR to $MP are incredibly important. Since US rare earths supply is the #1 national security priority right now. The United States owns almost none of the upstream capacity/refineries for AI, Robotics, to Space, as we rely on other countries from Canada to China. This is probably the best domestic policy move from the Trump administration to fund these unprofitable efforts. In order to secure US supply chain sovereignty instead of relying on Russia and China? It’s almost like FT is trying to make the US public mad… At genuinely great efforts to secure American’s independence by how they word these articles.
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认为当前是选股而不是一起涨跌的市场。
@McLeary_77 总体上我对大盘是看空的。 不过现在确实是个选股市场。
英文原文
@McLeary_77 Overall I’m bearish on markets as a whole. However there will be clear individual winners. It’s a stock pickers market right now
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认为中东局势如果持续升级，对市场长期不利。
现在大概正在进行美国 / 伊朗的幕后谈判，而特朗普很可能在找退场方案。 但如果局势继续升级（再延长 3 个月左右），而伊朗又通过中国 / 俄罗斯输送补给来扰乱全球能源市场。 我看不出这件事怎么可能在长期上是利多，除非市场过度反应。
英文原文
There’s probably backchannel negotiations right now with US/Iran and Trump is likely looking for an off ramp. But if escalation continues (extended ~3M) with Iran being by funneled supplies by China/Russia to disrupt the global energy markets. I can’t see how this could possibly be bullish long term unless markets overcorrect.
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解释战争对供应链和能源危机的二阶影响被低估了。
你们严重低估了供应链和能源危机的二阶、三阶、四阶影响。 如果伊朗把阿联酋和中东大量油田炸掉并造成扰乱。 那边很多机构主要是在给美国私募、巨头公司等提供资金，他们可能不得不撤资，从 capex 支出到流动性都会引发大范围中断。 这还没算日本、韩国这些亚洲伙伴，它们在石油、LNG、能源等方面并没有美国那么自给自足。 全球经济现在是极度互联的。即便美国没事，供应链也不会没事。 而且你会在流动性、财报和股价上都看到这些影响。
英文原文
This is vastly underestimating second, third, fourth order effects of supply chains and the energy crisis. If Iran blows up a lot of oil fields in UAE and the Middle East and causes disruptions. Lot of institutions over there largely funding US private equities, megacap, and others may have to pull out funding, causing widescale disruptions from capex spend to liquidity. This is also ignoring Asian partners from Japan, KR, that is not as self-sustaining as the US is in regards to oil, LNG, energy, and others. The global economy is extremely interconnected now. Even if the US is fine, the supply chains won't be. And you'll see this showing up in both liquidity, earnings, and stock price.
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指出 IREN 高管能增发稀释，拿 SNAP 作对照。
@DamienWong20 $IREN 的高管们其实可以用一种叫 SBC 的东西给自己发更多股份。 看看 $SNAP，员工每年能拿到 10 亿美元以上的奖励，而股价却一直在跌。
英文原文
@DamienWong20 There's something called SBC where $IREN executives can issue more shares to themselves. Take a look at $SNAP, the company awards employees $1B+ every year while stock prices keep dropping.
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分享一个股票配置框架示例：分高增长股、moonshot、安全股、长期国家安全股四层配置
我个人不会仅投资一个行业以分散风险。我提到光子学如$AAOI是因为我认为它有最高的短期上涨空间。但像$NBIS这样的公司，正如Jensen准确所说的，会"照顾好你"的长期表现。也许可以找一些高增长long标的，例如：$ARM - 从新AI CPU获得5倍收入增长；$NBIS - 到第四季度实现7-9B ARR增长带来10倍收入增长；$AAOI - 从光收发器需求获得10倍收入增长；$MRVL - 从$MSFT Maia ASICs获得2-3倍收入增长。选择一两个moonshot：我提到$SIVE是我最喜欢的，但鉴于其规模小，我不会投入太多集中度。然后用一些"更安全的标的"进行杠铃配置：$AMZN长期看涨，即使通过机器人/AI削减运营成本，但其走势像蜗牛；$RDDT长期看涨，因为它利润极高且今天正在产生巨额自由现金流。也许还有一些"超长期玩家"具有深远的国家安全优势，例如：$INTC的"美国制造"；$AMKR的"美国制造"等。这只是一个虚构的例子。
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I would personally not just invest in one sector for diversification sake. I talk about photonics like $AAOI recently because I see it as highest short-term upside. But others like $NBIS as Jensen accurately said "will take care of you" long term. Maybe figure out high growth longs for example: $ARM - 5x revenue from new AI CPU $NBIS - 10x revenue to q4 $7-9B ARR ramp $AAOI - 10x revenue ramp from optical transceiver demand $MRVL - 2-3x revenue ramp from $MSFT Maia ASICs Pick one or two moonshots: I mentioned $SIVE as my favorite, but given it's small size, I wouldn't put too much concentration into them and then barbell with some "safer plays" $AMZN long term I'm bullish on even from robotics/AI cutting opex though it moves like a slug $RDDT long term I'm bullish on from on just because it's ridiculously high profit and generating massive FCF today. and maybe some "long, long term players" that have deep national security benefits eg: $INTC for Made in America $AMKR for Made in America, etc. Just a made up example.
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强调公司不必增长太多，货币贬值和低流通股也能推高市值。
公司不需要增长那么多，美元只要贬值，百分比就会自己滚上去。 尤其是在政权更迭、目标是把国家债务通过通胀慢慢化掉的时候。 很多公司本身流通盘就很小（比如和 SoftBank 相关的公司，或者 SpaceX 相关标的），这也会把市值往上抬一点。 所以资金流入，并不等于市值就一定成比例扩张。
英文原文
Companies don't need to grow that much, dollar just needs to be devalued and % just compound. Esp. if there's an administration change and their goal is inflating away national debt. Lot of these companies trade off low float too (eg. Softbank related companies or with SpaceX and this just inflates MC a bit). So capital inflows doesn't really equate to MC expansion.
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提出地缘冲突极端情景下的末日ETF配置组合及各自逻辑。
Serenity末日ETF： 25% | $FAZ 25% | $GUSH 20% | $LCID 做空 10% | $SQQQ 10% | $UVIX 10% | $NVDA 看跌期权 逻辑： $FAZ / 3倍做空金融股 - 私人市场流动性(Private Market liquidity)押注，中东资本如果所有油田被炸毁将撤离私人市场。 $GUSH / 2倍做多美国油气 - 全球原油价格可能飙升，美国生产商赚取创纪录利润。 $SQQQ / 3倍做空纳斯达克 - 谷歌、亚马逊、苹果、微软被迫抛售，如果流动性被抽走的话。 $LCID 做空 / 沙特阿拉伯公共投资基金(Public Investment Fund)持有60%股份。如果沙特遭受流动性冲击(Private Market liquidity shock)，Lucid也就完了。 $UVIX / 2倍做多波动率 - 如果发生黑天鹅事件，波动率就会上升。 $NVDA 看跌期权 - 作为$SPY最大权重股最后的防线。如果资本支出被削减，指数下跌时英伟达会跌得最惨。 只有在美国向伊朗派遣地面部队且伊朗炸毁周边一切的情况下，我才会看到这种情景。 让我们祈祷发生的是塔可星期二吧。
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The Serenity Doomsday ETF: 25% | $FAZ 25% | $GUSH 20%| $LCID Short 10% | $SQQQ 10% $UVIX 10% | $NVDA Puts Rationale: $FAZ / 3x short financial - Private Market liquidity play on Middle Eastern capital abandoning private markets if all their oil fields get blown apart. $GUSH / 2x Long US OIl and Gas - Global crude prices that will likely skyrocket, and American producers reap record windfall in profits. $SQQQ / 3x short Nasdaq - Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft forced selling if liquidity gets pulled. $LCID Short / 60% owned by Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund. If the Saudis suffer from liquidity shock, there goes Lucid. $UVIX/ 2x long volatility - If there's black swan events, volatility goes up. $NVDA Puts - Last bastion for the $SPY as largest weighting. If capex gets pulled, index sells off will Nvidia go down the hardest. I only see this scenario if US sends ground troops to Iran and Iran blows everything around it up. Let's pray for Taco Tuesday.
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强调核心是 thesis 和结果，不是仓位美元金额或权威背书。
我不会公开 $RDDT 到 $CRCL 的仓位美元金额，因为那根本不重要。 真正重要的是核心论点 / 想法： 市场里的百分比结果会验证它们，而不是一个组合有多大、美元金额涨了多少（比如 1000 万美元里的 0.01%）。 我之前也对那些在 X 上被嘲笑只有 5000 美元或 25000 美元组合的小创作者说过同样的话。 他们的想法也应该被认真听，而不是看他们有多少钱。 这和我在发布 thesis 时，不会拿自己在 RISC-V 或 AI 实验室发论文的背景来背书是一个道理： 判断依据应该是核心想法。 不是权威。 那些没完没了的噪音最后也把我自己搞得有点受不了，所以我在发 $SIVE 的持仓数字时还是妥协了一次。 实质内容才是关键，我想这也正是我最近账号能涨这么多关注的主要原因。 我也鼓励别人把重心放在这一点上。
英文原文
I don’t post USD values of positions from $RDDT to $CRCL since they’re irrelevant. What matters are the core thesis/ideas: The % outcome in the market validates them, not the size of a portfolio and USD values going up a lot (like .01% of $10M). I’ve said this before as well to any small X content creator who gets made fun of because of a $5K port or $25K port. They should be listened to as well for their ideas, not how much money they have. It’s the same reason I don’t cite my background in RISC-V to publishing papers in AI Labs when I post a thesis: They’re based on the core idea. Not authority. All the endless noise ended up getting to my head so I gave in once posting $SIVE figures. Substance is what matters and I think that’s largely why my account got such a huge following recently. And I encourage others to focus on that as well.
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认为在伊朗和特朗普不确定性下不该加杠杆，因为很多小票已有很低估值或卡住关键瓶颈。
@AdityaInvests90 不，我觉得伊朗冲突和特朗普这边的不确定性太大了；我宁愿不要在下跌路上加杠杆，以防它继续往下掉。 很多标的已经估值很低，或者虽然体量很小，但卡着关键瓶颈。 所以它们能跌的空间也很有限。
英文原文
@AdityaInvests90 No, Iran conflict and Trump have too much uncertainty, and I’d rather not leverage on the way down just in case it keeps dropping. Many names are at depressed valuations or hold critical chokepoints despite being so small. So there’s only so much they can drop.
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说自己喜欢前面提到的所有名字，Win Semi 和 ARM 是最新加入的。
@RiskAdjustedMe 说实话，我喜欢我提到过的所有名字。Win Semi 和 $ARM 是其中最新加进来的。
英文原文
@RiskAdjustedMe Tbh I like all of the names I’ve mentioned. Win Semi and $ARM were the newest ones out of the bunch.
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说自己通常会用约 1.4x 杠杆，现在因伊朗冲突已降到 0，但仍整体看多。
@AdityaInvests90 我通常会维持大约 1.4 倍杠杆。（只有在比如 $NBIS $70 那种仓位，或者年初税损收割的仓位上，才会把组合再加杠杆）。 现在因为伊朗冲突，我已经把杠杆降到 0 了，但整体上我还是看多。
英文原文
@AdityaInvests90 I typically sit on ~1.4x. (Only portfolio margined past 2 into stuff like $NBIS at $70 or tax harvested stuff at the beginning of the year). Now winded down to 0 due to Iran conflict but still long in general.
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说自己在做金融科技业务，研究市场只是为了兴趣和验证 thesis。
@SalmanJ99750827 我现在自己在做一个 fintech，所以个人其实挺忙的。 我做这些更多只是当作业余爱好。 市场就像下棋：你对一个 thesis 有信念，然后看它最后会不会兑现，这个过程本身就挺有意思的。
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@SalmanJ99750827 I run my own fintech right now, so quite busy personally. I'm just doing this for fun on the side. Markets are like playing chess, you have conviction in a thesis. Then it's fun to see it play out or not.