全部推文
共 6386 条 · 第 37 / 213 页 · 滚到底自动加载更多
-
说 HPS.A 在他发帖后几乎每天都在涨
我很喜欢 $HPS.A 从我发 thesis 之后就像一条垂直线一样，每天都涨 2-3%。 离三位数回报只差 20 加元了。 https://t.co/CHqWQKzH5E
英文原文
I like how $HPS.A is just a vertical line up 2-3% increase every day since my thesis post. Just 20 CAD away before it hits triple digit returns. https://t.co/CHqWQKzH5E
-
说 AAOI 已经上涨 6-7 倍
$AAOI 现在已经涨到大约 200 美元，差不多 6-7 倍了。 感觉去年除了我和 X 上另外两三个人，几乎没人还在做多它？ 它仍然是我接下来 2027 年前后最看好的光学多头之一，因为收入会大幅放量，而且有 Made in America 供应链。 https://t.co/HD0724F2vE
英文原文
$AAOI is now up ~6-7x at $200+. Feels like nobody else was long last year aside from me and like two other people on X? Remains one of my top high conviction optical longs moving forward into 2027 due to massive revenue ramp + Made in America supply chains. https://t.co/HD0724F2vE
-
澄清$TSEM与MOCVD/SIPh扩产逻辑无关
它们根本就不是，也没有半点关联。我真不明白为什么老是有这些事后诸葛亮式的评论，随随便便抛出一堆股票代码，还附带一堆错误的观点。它们不会随着下游SiPh(硅光子)体量而扩展，$TSEM跟MOCVD资本开支毫无关系？它们甚至都不买MOCVD设备？
英文原文
They're literally aren't and have 0 affiliation. I'm not sure why I keep getting these backseat comments throwing out random tickers with wrong ideas. They don't scale with downstream SiPh volume, $TSEM has nothing to do with MOCVD capex? They don't even buy MOCVD equipment?
-
用 TSEM 的预付款解释上游 substrate 需求
顺便提醒一下，$TSEM 报了额外的预付款（2.9 亿美元）来锁产能。 下游晶圆厂产能紧张，会直接转化为上游原始 substrate 的巨大需求，尤其是 $SOI（也意味着更多收入）。 我的光学持仓彼此之间关联非常强。 https://t.co/4vIAvS1jOl
英文原文
Just in case you were wondering $TSEM reported extra prepayment ($290M) to secure capacity. Downstream foundry capacity squeeze directly translates to an immense demand for raw substrates upstream with $SOI (more revenue). My optical picks are very interconnected. https://t.co/4vIAvS1jOl
-
复盘 TSEM 业绩后自己持仓继续 ATH
又正好过了 2 个月。 $TSEM 在财报后已经涨到 250 美元以上。 我大部分持仓在 thesis 继续发酵后，每天都在刷 ATH。 如果市场给更多时间让 thesis 落地，往往会这样。
英文原文
And exactly 2 months later. $TSEM is trading at $250+ post earnings. The vast majority of my picks keep making ATHs every day after there’s more time for the thesis to play out. Did you listen anon? https://t.co/rGXFKwPC51
-
说自己在洗澡时写帖子，漏掉了 projections
@Antrunt 我是在洗澡时写这条帖子的，所以忘了把 projections 和 current 对比加进去。
英文原文
@Antrunt I’m writing this post in the shower and I forgot to add projections vs current.
-
NBIS 财报强劲并大幅超预期
$NBIS 的财报非常亮眼，现在盘前已经交易到 200 美元以上。 他们重申 2026 年 70-90 亿美元 ARR、40% 调整后 EBITDA margin 预期，远超市场预期。 4 GW 已签约产能，$NVDA 通过扎实的融资结构提供了 63 亿美元资本支持。 很高兴我高置信度的 Neocloud 持仓表现这么好，也很高兴管理层执行得这么出色。 用 Jensen 的话说：“Nebius 会照顾好你们的。”
英文原文
$NBIS earnings were stellar and it’s now trading $200+ premarket. Reiterated $7-9B ARR in 2026. 40% adj. EBITDA margin projections, which is vastly outperforming expectations. 4 GW contracted capacity. $6.3B capital secured by $NVDA off solid financial offering structures. Glad my high conviction Neocloud pick is performing wonders and happy management is executing so well. In the words of Jensen: “Nebius will take care of you”
-
表示自己更愿意保持独立分析师身份
@DanilSer33 我大概率会放弃那个想法，因为我想继续保持和 $SIVE 相关的独立分析师身份。 而且如果管理层没把事情做对，我会更愿意考虑。 但我现在看到他们执行得非常好，所以现状已经很满意了。
英文原文
@DanilSer33 I’ll probably pass on that idea since I want to remain an independent analyst with $SIVE. Also id be more open to it if management weren’t doing their job. But I see them executing extremely well, so very happy as is.
-
欢迎瑞典对冲基金面对全球机构资金流入
@JinYu762 瑞典本地对冲基金，准备好迎接全球金融机构对 $SIVE 的资金流入吧。
英文原文
@JinYu762 Local Swedish hedge funds, get ready to meet global financial institution inflow with $SIVE.
-
调侃新的空头都变成了多头并被指数带飞
@Jess252530 每一个新的空头突然都变成了多头……再叠加指数权重，真有意思。
英文原文
@Jess252530 Every new short suddenly turned into a long… compounded with index weighting. How fun
-
计算 MSCI 被动资金流入对 SIVE 的拉动
@Platypus_55 我算了一下，大概会有 2500 万到 3200 万美元的新资金流入买盘压力？ 这对 $SIVE 来说是结构性的巨大顺风。
英文原文
@Platypus_55 I did some calculations and it might be around $25-$32m worth of new inflow buying pressure? Which is structurally a large tailwind for $SIVE.
-
MSCI 小盘股纳入对 SIVE 是重大利好
哇，$SIVE 被纳入 MSCI Global Small Cap Index。 这极度利好，因为随着市值变大，会触发更多被动资金流入。 再平衡会在 5 月 29 日进行。
英文原文
Wow, $SIVE to be listed in the MSCI Global Small Cap Index. This is overwhelmly positively as it triggers more passive inflows as the MC grows. Rebalancing takes places May 29th.
-
Sivers半导体因美国机构入主和$LITE系高管加持，NASDAQ上市有望加速。
为了让事情变得更加有趣。 $SIVE由UC Berkeley的CEO们和$LITE的前高管们运营。 而且股权结构表现在已被美国机构/投资者控制。 我预计NASDAQ上市进程会加速，因为美国机构非常青睐这样的高管团队+股权结构。 美国/硅谷现在正在快速推进一家瑞典名义的光子学公司。
英文原文
To make things even spicier. $SIVE is run by UC Berkeley CEOs and $LITE executives. And the ownership cab table is now controlled by American institutions/investors. I’d expect things to speed up on NASDAQ listing as American institutions are heavy fond of executive teams + cap tables like this. US/Silicon Valley is now speedrunning a Swedish in name photonics company.
-
说明自己很难把复杂技术细节讲得完整
@PhotonCap 谢谢。有时候在这么技术密集的领域里，要把所有细微差别都讲清楚确实很难，尤其是我自己到底看到了什么。
英文原文
@PhotonCap Thanks. Sometimes it’s hard to get all the nuances across in a really technically dense field, in terms of what I’m personally seeing.
-
解释 SIVE 的 CW laser 为什么适配多家 hyperscaler 供应链
他们特别之处在于拥有非常先进、架构上独特的 CW lasers，所以能适配 Ayar、$MRVL Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence 以及 hyperscaler 供应链里的这些规格。 像 Furukawa、Sumitomo 这种公司，做的更多是大规模生产通用 / 标准化 CW lasers。 这也是为什么很多中游光学公司最后都会用 $SIVE 这样小但关键的 laser 公司，而随着它们一起成长，Sivers 也会跟着放大。
英文原文
What they do special is really advanced/architecturally unique CW lasers, so they fit Ayar, $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, and these types of specifications in hyperscaler supply chains. Companies like Furukawa, Sumitomo just mass produce generic/standardized CW lasers. That’s a reason why so many of these midstream optical companies ended up using such small laser company in $SIVE and as they all grow, Sivers scales with them.
-
用历史市值路径说明 laser chokepoint 的威力
回答这个问题，我就拿一些 laser chokepoint 的历史数据出来： $LITE 从 30 亿 -> 150 亿 -> 800 亿美元，只用了从 2024 年开始的 2 年。 $AAOI 从 7.7 亿 -> 150 亿美元，只用了 2025 年开始的 1 年。 $SIVE 现在在 2026 年是 16 亿美元。 世界上这类公司没多少，而 laser 又是 photonics 的绝对中心。 每家公司都拥有一个特定的 chokepoint，对应一次光学架构的变化。 $LITE 对应 EML。 $AAOI 对应 cw 800g/1.6T pluggable。 而现在 $SIVE 对应 cw CPO。
英文原文
To answer that question. I’ll just float some historical data out there with laser chokepoints: $LITE went from $3B -> $15B -> $80B in 2 years from 2024. $AAOI went from $770M -> $15B in 1 year from 2025. $SIVE is $1.6B today in 2026. There’s not many in the world and lasers are the absolute center of photonics. Each owned a specific chokepoint from optical architectural shifts. $LITE for EML. $AAOI for cw 800g/1.6T pluggable and now $SIVE for cw CPO.
-
列出市场回调时的加仓和定投思路
嗯，如果是我来做的话： -> 今天回调时重仓加 Foci / Nextronics / Shunsin。 -> 定投 MSScorps、Sivers、Furukawa Electric、Browave，因为这些波动都很大。 -> 也可以小量加一些像 PCL、All Ring（6187）这样的敞口。 Soitec 可能要等更大一点的回调。
英文原文
Hmm. If I were to do it -> Foci/Nextronics/Shunsin heavy add today on the drop. -> DCA MSScorps, Sivers, Furukawa Electric, Browave since those are very volatile -> Throw in a few ones like PCL, All Ring (6187) for exposure, but light. Maybe wait for a larger drop on Soitec.
-
市场回调时我手里有些 Foci 头寸也在回撤
@soulbiri1 在市场回调时机还挺合适！ 我现在其实有些名字，比如 Foci，暂时还是亏的。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Good timing while there's a market correction! I'm actually red on some of these names like Foci so far.
-
说 SIVE 业绩的关键在量产和客户进展
$SIVE 的业绩结果其实不重要，我看不出财务上有什么风险，最多就是媒体平常爱制造恐慌。 像我以前对 $AAOI / $AEHR 一样，现在主要该看的指标是 2027 年以后的激光量产。 如果有 Win Semi 产能锁定，那就会很利好。 或者如果 Ayar、Jabil 和其他客户出现量产，那也是利好。 任何关于新增 hyperscaler 供应商的备注，都会是利好。
英文原文
$SIVE earning results don't matter, I don't see risks in financials other than your usual media trying to cause panic. Main indicators to look at like I've done before with $AAOI / $AEHR. Are around laser volume production going forward in 2027. Maybe anything around Win Semi capacity lock would be bullish. Or Ayar, Jabil, and other customer volume production. Any added note around new hyperscaler suppliers would be bullish.
-
CPO市场将从零增长至910亿美元，欧洲、台湾、日本新玩家将主导CPO供应链变革。
人们好奇我为什么最近在关注非美国市场。 为什么？因为共封装光学(CPO)是我排名第一的主题性看多方向。 市场尚未意识到，光子学领域正经历一场突如其来的范式转变... 2025年，我是少数几个提前预判当前超级周期的人之一，当时买入的$AAOI约在$30、$LITE约在$300多、$AXTI约在$13...这些都是基于真实的业绩验证和其他人无法展示的thesis。 CPO市场将从约0增长到910亿美元的TAM机会。 高盛研究预计在未来1.5年内实现。 与此同时，整体光学市场将达到1540亿美元。 许多之前对当前光子学周期几乎没有任何敞口的企业： -> 欧洲企业拥有高端激光设计，如$SIVE或$SOI涉及衬底 -> 台湾企业如Foci (3363)、Nextronics (8147)、Shunsin (6451)等提供光学元件和代工服务 -> 日本企业涉及激光量产、衬底和化学品 突然之间成为了CPO的新主导力量。 至于美国玩家，目前敞口不大。但现有企业如$LITE、$COHR仍能从CPO中获得上涨空间，因为这是它们新的增长向量。 我对现有玩家的逆向思考： 他们的大部分估值已经反映了巨大的传统可插拔光学收入，而这些收入将不可避免地随时间被 cannibalize（ cannibalization蚕食），因此除非有人能利用杠杆，否则重新估值的空间有限。 许多新的纯CPO概念股会在H2 2026开始量产时从0到100极速增长（作为收入桥梁），然后进入H2 2027的规模化增长阶段（成为大规模增长驱动力）。 市场通常会在事件发生前8-12个月定价... 尽管在此期间市场可能出现波动，但我对自己的供应链研究在主题性方向上有高度信心。
英文原文
People wonder why I'm focusing on non-US markets recently. Why? CPO is my #1 thematic long. Markets don't know yet, the sudden paradigm shift in photonics... I was one of the only to frontrun the current supercycle in 2025 w/ $AAOI @ ~$30, $LITE ~$300s, and $AXTI at ~$13 on X.... With the actual receipts and thesis that others can't show. CPO goes from ~$0. To $91 Billion TAM opportunity. In the next 1 1/2 years from GS research. While overall optical market reaches $154B. Many players that had little exposure to the current photonics cycle at all: -> In Europe with high-end lasers design like $SIVE or $SOI with substrates. -> In Taiwan with Foci (3363), Nextronics (8147), Shunsin (6451) and others for optical components and foundries. -> In Japan with laser mass production, substrates, and chemicals. Are suddenly the new dominant players for CPO. As for US players, there's not much exposure. But the existing ones like $LITE, $COHR still get upside from CPO as that's their new growth vector. My contrarian thought process on current players: Is that most of their valuation is priced in huge legacy pluggable revenue that will inevitably face cannibalization over time, so re-rating potential is less unless someone uses leverage. A lot of these new purer play CPO names go from 0 to 100 extremely quickly one mass production starts H2 2026 for scale out (as a revenue bridge) into H2 2027 for scale up (massive growth driver). Markets usually price things in 8-12 months ahead of time too... I have high conviction thematically in my supply chain research despite any market volatility leading up until then.
-
强调要在周期底部拿到完整超级周期
市场会提前 8 到 12 个月定价。 我喜欢在最底部找机会，然后完整吃到超级周期暴露，比如 $AXTI、$SIVE、$IQE、$SOI、$LITE、$AAOI 这些。 否则如果某样东西已经被定价了，你是拿不到 10 倍回报的。要是某公司要到 2028 才完全放量，而它在 2026 上半年还是从 0 开始，市场会从 H2 开始一路把它定价到 2028 之后，随着产量爬坡继续往上走。
英文原文
Markets are forward looking by 8-12 months. I like to find plays at the very bottom and capture full supercycle exposure like $AXTI, $SIVE, $IQE, $SOI, $LITE, $AAOI, etc. Otherwise you won't get 10x returns if something is already priced in. If something fully scales 2028, and starts from 0 in H1 2026. Markets will start pricing in the company all the way past 2028, H2 onward as production ramps.
-
用 napkin math 算 Nextronics 的 CPO 价值
所以这是我在做多 Nextronics（8147）时做的便签纸计算。 他们是 $NVDA 的 CPO 供应商，供应 CPO connectors 和 cage thermal modules。 我按 2028 年的前瞻市盈率大概算了 2 倍，这也是我认为它有望在 2028 年重估到约 20 亿美元以上市值、具有很强风险回报的原因。 只看它的 CPO 暴露： -> CPO connector 大概 15 到 25 美元 -> ELS thermal cages 估计约 50 美元 每个 switch 18 个单元：18x50 = 900 美元 CPO Connectors：每个 switch 72 个 optical engines，72 x 15 = 1080 美元 （如果 $NVDA 扩到 Spectrum-X switch，这个数会到 1920 美元） Total Nextronics Content：大约 1980 美元（保守算成 2000 美元） 这意味着 BOM 只占 rack 的 0.08%，大概只占 switch 的 1.5%。 机构眼里这太小了，所以大概率被忽略。 但对 Nextronics 这家约 2 亿美元的公司来说，这很重要吗？ 当然，绝对很重要。 我算的时候把 Nextronics 在 Nvidia connector/cage 市场的份额打了 50% 折扣，因为存在多供应商。 并且我用的是 GS 的预测，再假设 $AVGO、$MRVL、ASIC CPO 生态的规模只有 $NVDA 的 30%。 净利润率：22.4%（GM 38% 时）到 24.0%（GM 40% 时）。 但如果按其他预测，只看 rack shipment： 2026：CPO revenue 约 1010 万，净利润（22.4%）约 226 万 + 基础业务 1250 万 = 1470 万（540k 单元是 connectors，40k 单元是 cage，且已除以 50%） 2027：CPO revenue 约 1.72 亿，净利润（22.4%）约 3853 万 = 5103 万（约 800 万单元 connectors，103 万单元 cage） 2028 scale up 扩张：CPO revenue 约 4.5 亿，净利润约 1.0093 亿，基础业务约 1130 万（约 4000 万单元 connectors，298 万单元 cages，例如 Nvidia ELS 量是 1990 万） 所以前瞻市盈率大概是 2026 年 15.4 倍，2027 年 4.45 倍，2028 年 2 倍。 当然，放量后综合毛利可能会下降，也可能会有别的玩家把份额稀释到 25% 左右，预测也可能比 GS 更高或更低。 但不管怎样，哪怕我偏差 50%，这仍然极具不对称性。 2028 年通常是 CPO 玩家大重估的一年，2026 年其实还很早。 希望我算得对，但 20x 的前瞻市盈率会对应 22.6 亿美元市值。 即便我们把： -> 市占率降到 15%。 -> 净利润率压到 14%。 -> connector ASP 降到 10 美元。 按 20x 倍数，股价仍然能有大约 4.5 倍回报，市值超过 10 亿美元。 我们走着看吧。（NFA，只是投机性财务建模）
英文原文
So here's the napkin math I did on Nextronics (8147) when I went long. They're the $NVDA CPO supplier for CPO connectors and cage thermal modules. And I modeled around 2 FWD p/e for 2028, which is why I think risk-reward is very compelling for a potential 10x rerating to ~$2B+ MC in 2028. Just for their CPO exposure: -> CPO connector runs roughly $15 to $25 -> ELS thermal cages, maybe ~$50 from est. 18 units per switch: 18x50 = ~$900 CPO Connectors: 72 Optical Engines per switch 72 x $15 = $1,080 (If $NVDA scales their Spectrum-X switch, it goes to $1,920 for CPO connectors). Total Nextronics Content: ~$1,980 (rounded to $2k for calculations) in conservative case. Implied BOM % of rack: 0.08%. Maybe ~1.5% of switch. This looks microscopic to institutions so it probably is ignored. Is it material to Nextronics, a ~$200m company? Yes, absolute massive. For calculations: Applying 50% haircut to Nextronics' share of the Nvidia connector market/cage market because of multi-source. And I’m using GS projections, and assuming $AVGO, $MRVL, ASIC CPO ecosystem is 30% size of $NVDA. Net Income Margin: 22.4% (at 38% GM)- 24.0% (at 40% GM). But going off other projections from just, a rack shipments: 2026: CPO revenue ~10.1M, net income (22.4%) ~2.26M + $12.5M base = $14.7M (540k units for connectors, cage, 40K units, already divided by 50%) 2027: CPO revenue: ~$172M, net income (22.4%): ~$38.53M = $51.03M (~8M units for connectors, ~1.03M units for cage) 2028 scale up expansion: CPO revenue: $450m, net income: $100.93M, ~$11.3M base (~40M units for connectors, 2.98M unit for cages, eg. Nvidia ELS volume is 19.9M) So implied fwd p/e 15.4x for 2026, 4.45x for 2027, 2x for 2028. Of course at scale, blended margins might go down, there might be other players bringing market share down to like 25%, etc. and projections might be more or less than GS. But regardless seems highly asymmetrical even if I'm off by a whole 50%. 2028 is usually the massive re-rating for CPO players, 2026 is still really early. Hope my math is right, but 20x fwd p/e multiple would be $2.26B MC. Even if we drop: -> market share to just 15%. -> compress their net income margin down to 14%. -> connector ASP to $10. At a 20x multiple, the stock would still achieve a ~4.5x return to a $1B+ market cap. We'll see if this is right or not. (NFA, just speculative financial modeling)
-
说明自己会做估值建模但不细讲
@AtlasShrug1 @VidianOnXX 我其实会做估值分析，也会给每个持仓自己建模前瞻 P/E。 只是我不会分享太多技术细节，因为我会把这些帖子保持在一个更容易让普通读者消化的高层级。
英文原文
@AtlasShrug1 @VidianOnXX I actually do valuation analysis and model my own fwd P/E ratios for every name I long. I just don’t share a lot of technical details since I keep these posts high level to make it more digestible for regular readers.
-
承认自己对 Auros 和 Towa 等少数名字短期偏负面
@Kyrentz 我其实对少数名字，比如 Auros 或 Towa，是偏负面的。 但我不觉得用 3 个交易日去判断这些在宏观回调里的回报，有什么意义。
英文原文
@Kyrentz I’m actually negative on a few names like Auros or Towa. I don’t think it’s worth judging returns in 3 trading days on that though during a macro correction.
-
解释自己先选主题再选最优标的
我会先选一个我极度看好的主题，然后再挑最值得做多的玩家。 未来两年最大上行主题是 CPO，我对这个判断非常有信心。 我觉得 memory 处在超级周期尾段，回报可能少一些，但仍然不错。 长期 5 年以上则是 space 和 humanoids。 中间也有一些小机会，比如未来 6 个月的 glass substrate 转换，像 $LPK。
英文原文
I pick a theme I’m extraordinarily bullish on, then I pick the most compelling players to long. The largest upside theme is CPO over the next two years, I have extraordinarily high confidence in that statement. I think memory is tail end of supercycle where returns are probably less but still compelling. Long term 5+ years it’s space and humanoids. There’s little trades in between like glass substrate shifts with $LPK over next 6 months.
-
用历史说明 SIVE 已站在新的 laser chokepoint 上
$LITE 用 2 年从 20 亿涨到 800 亿，因为它掌握了 EML 的 laser chokepoint。 $AAOI 用 1 年从 14 亿涨到 140 亿，因为它掌握了 800g / 1.6T transceivers 和组装的 laser chokepoint。 $SIVE 今天大概是 14 亿美元，在 CPO 之前就已经掌握了 CW laser chokepoint。 Sivers 是我最喜欢的一个。
英文原文
$LITE went from $2B to $80B in two years by owning the laser chokepoint for EML $AAOI went from $1.4B to $14B in one year by owning laser chokepoint for 800g/1.6T transceivers + assembly $SIVE is $1.4B today before CPO and owns the CW laser chokepoint. Sivers is my favorite out of everything.
-
对 CPO 里两个不同 bottleneck 都很看好
CPO 供应链里有两个不同的 chokepoints / bottlenecks，而且风险结构不一样。我真的、真的都很喜欢。 MSScorps 有潜在的 yield monopoly，市场份额最高可到 90%（基本就是 100%，只是我不想说成反垄断）。这对规模化来说绝对必需。 FOCI 则是 FAU 和光学组件的 bottleneck。 FOCI 可能是一个增长很快、很有吸引力的敞口，而且需求可见度很高。 如果它的竞争对手真被专利打掉，Msscorp 就像一艘从 0 到 100 的火箭。
英文原文
Two different chokepoints/bottlenecks in CPO supply chain with different risk profiles. I really, really like both. MSScorps is potential monopoly over yields with up to 90% market share (basically 100% just don’t want antitrust), which is an absolute must for scaling. Foci is a bottleneck over FAU and optical components. Foci is probably a really high growth, compelling exposure with a lot of demand visibility. Msscorp is like a 0 to 100 rocket ship if all their competitors get successfully slapped by patents.
-
说明 FOCI 在 CPO 暴露里非常有吸引力
FOCI（3363）在现在这个位置上，作为 CPO 敞口看起来极具吸引力，市值大概只有 33.5 亿美元。 1. $TSM COUPE 先进封装负责人暗示，FOCI 提供的 FAU 供给会是量产中的大瓶颈。 2. Morgan Stanley note 预计他们会成为 $NVDA 和 $TSM 的领先供应商，市占率最高可到 50%。 3. $HIMX 释放了创纪录需求的信号，而且表示 Foci 应该扩产，这意味着中期需求可见度很高。 4. 根据 Goldman Sachs 的研究，FAU 和光学组件占 CPO 相关 BOM 的很大比例。 5. 总体 CPO TAM 按 GS 的说法，未来两年会从接近 0 增长到 910 亿美元。 方向上我对这个主题非常有信心（NFA），尽管短期市场波动很大。 风险在于后续 generation 被设计替代。 但在未来 1-2 年里，我认为它有很高的重估潜力，相比其他名字也许需要持续跟踪。 只是顺手分享一下我持有的更纯 CPO 敞口思路。
英文原文
FOCI (3363) is looks extremely compelling around now at ~$3.35B MC for CPO exposure. 1. $TSM COUPE advanced packaging director hinted that FAU supplies by FOCI be a pretty big bottleneck for mass production. 2. Leading supplier for $NVDA and $TSM expected with up to 50% market share from Morgan Stanley note. 3. $HIMX signaled record demand and that Foci should scale up capacity (meaning high medium term demand visibility) 4. FAU and optical components make a large % of CPO related BOM from Goldman Sachs research note. 5. Overarching CPO tam basically goes from near 0 to $91B in the next two years from the GS note. I’m very confident about this theme directionally over time (NFA), despite any recent market volatility. Risks include getting designed out for later generations. But over the next 1-2 years, I think it has high potential to be re-rated compared to other names but might need to be actively monitored. Just throwing out ideas over long positions I hold, for more purer play CPO exposure.
-
众包人形机器人投资标的清单，汇总出现频率最高的六只股票。
这是人形机器人敞口众包列表： - $OUST - Rainbow Robotics (277810) - $AMBA - Ubtech Robotics - $MKA - Nextronics - $SYM - Harmonic Drive (6324) - $VPG - 北京极智嘉 - $MBLY - $ARBE - Nabtesco (6268) - $SERV - $HSYDF - Robotstrategy - $ZBRA - $CATL - $ABB - $BOT - Unitree (尚未上市) - $LSCC - 亿sunny Robot (300024) - $NOVT - $RR - $PDY - 禾赛科技 (2525) - $SHA.DE - $XBOT - $XPEV - $BAM - $ALNT - 6268.T - $AMBQ - $ATOM - $MRAM - $ISRG - $HLIT - Robosense (2498) - $HG - $ACUVI - $CGNX - $KLIC - $BSL - $AEVA - $AUR - $CTH.V - $IMSR - $NEO - $KDK - $MRLN - $KITT - $INDI - $NOVT 凭记忆： Harmonic Drive、$OUST、$BOT、$VPG、$MBLY和Ubtech出现频率最高。 接下来会对这些提及最多的标的开始做尽职调查。
英文原文
Here's the humanoid exposure crowdsourced list: - $OUST - Rainbow Robotics (277810) - $AMBA - Ubtech Robotics - $MKA - Nextronics - $SYM - Harmonic Drive (6324) - $VPG - Beijing Geekplus - $MBLY - $ARBE - Nabtesco (6268) - $SERV - $HSYDF - Robotstrategy - $ZBRA - $CATL - $ABB - $BOT - Unitree (not public yet) - $LSCC - Esunny Robot (300024) - $NOVT - $RR - $PDY - Hesai (2525) - $SHA.DE - $XBOT - $XPEV - $BAM - $ALNT - 6268.T - $AMBQ - $ATOM - $MRAM - $ISRG - $HLIT - Robosense (2498) - $HG - $ACUVI - $CGNX - $KLIC - $BSL - $AEVA - $AUR - $CTH.V - $IMSR - $NEO - $KDK - $MRLN - $KITT - $INDI - $NOVT Off the top of my head: Harmonic Drive, $OUST, $BOT, $VPG, $MBLY, and Ubtech showed up the most. Will start doing DD into mentions.
-
看好 Shunsin 的放量和 Foxconn 绑定
今天对 Shunsin（6451）的影响非常看多。 它就是 Foxconn 的 SiPH 和 CPO 封装 / 测试业务。 -> UDN 报道上调了放量预期，且 Foxconn 已经开始向 $NVDA 出货 CPO switch racks -> CPO 产品正在 Foxconn 越南工厂生产…… 猜猜看哪家公司过去几年一直在积极扩建 Bac Giang 越南工厂来做 CPO？ 正如我之前说的，Shunsin 本质上就是被 Foxconn 直接带飞的免费硬核 carry。 我当时只是太早了，但现在看起来正是巨大增长曲线的开始。
英文原文
Highly bullish implications today for Shunsin (6451). Which is Foxconn’s SiPH and CPO packaging/test arm. -> UDN reported upward revision in volume and Foxconn began shipping cpo switch racks to $NVDA -> CPO products are being produced in Foxconn's Vietnam plant… Guess which company has been aggressively expanding its Bac Giang, Vietnam facility for CPO for the past few years? As I said before Shunsin is basically a free hard-carry by Foxconn. Was just very early but this looks to be the start of a massive growth curve.