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看好Harmonic Drive，但更倾向用资本支持西方供应链而非中国。
我确实看好 Harmonic Drive (6324) 作为西方谐波减速器领域的领导者，估值约 42 亿美元。在机器人/人形机器人的物料清单价值中占非常大比重。我实际上更看好 Leader Drive（因为大规模生产更便宜，覆盖更多零件）。也许三花(Sanhua)会是 $TSLA Optimus 的供应商。但用我的资本，我更偏好支持西方供应链而非中国供应链。这不仅仅是赚市场的钱，还关乎你想达成什么目标（帮助推进美国供应链和机器人行业领导者）。
英文原文
I do like Harmonic Drive (6324) as the Western Leader (eg. harmonic reduction gear) at ~$4.2B MC. Very large part of robotics/humanoid BOM value. I actually like Leader Drive more (since it's cheaper for mass production, covers more parts). And maybe Sanhua for $TSLA Optimus. But prefer to advance Western supply chains with my capital over ones in China. It's not just profiting off markets, but what you want to get accomplished as well (helping advance US supply chains and Robotics leaders).
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认为 FOCI 被严重低估
FOCI（3363）是现在全市场里被低估最严重的 CPO 玩家之一，市值大概只有 30 亿美元。 它的 BOM 相对市值非常大，而且预计会拿到 $NVDA / $TSM 的主导性份额。 你要到 2027 / 2028 年才会真正看到这件事兑现，虽然我们现在已经进入 2026 年下半年了（这也是我说在提前押注 CPO 超级周期）。
英文原文
FOCI (3363) is one of the most undervalued CPO players in the entire market right now at ~$3B. Their BOM is massive relative to MC and they're expected to capture a dominant market share for $NVDA / $TSM. You only start to see this show up 2027 / 2028, even though we're entering H2 2026 now (which is what I mean by frontrunning CPO supercycle).
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说 Shunsin 的 CPO/SiPh 逻辑开始兑现
花了一个月…… 但我关于 Shunsin（6451）CPO / SiPh 的想法开始兑现了。 我一直说，像 $IQE 到 $SOI 这些 thesis，通常会在我发帖后大概 1 个月左右突然开始上涨……这真的很诡异。 也许是机构在跟单？ https://t.co/qWGvNsJk2C
英文原文
Took a month… But my Shunsin (6451) CPO/SiPh idea is starting to play out. I’m telling you with all these ideas like $IQE to $SOI, they randomly start going up like 1 month after my thesis posts… it’s extremely uncanny. Maybe institution copy trading? https://t.co/qWGvNsJk2C
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对 CBRS 估值太高但仍看好短期波动
我不太喜欢 $CBRS，尤其是市值到了大约 900 亿到 1000 亿美元的时候。 但我喜欢这家公司。 IPO 之后因为流通盘和浮筹动态，短期内往往会出现很大的估值错位，就像 $CRCL 或 $BULL 一样。 所以我不会惊讶它会在短时间里交易到离谱估值，直到后面才修正。
英文原文
Not a fan of $CBRS, especially at ~$90B-100B MC valuations. But I do like the company. There’s a lot of short term valuation disconnects with float dynamics after IPO as seen with $CRCL or $BULL though. So would not be surprised if it ends up trading at absurd valuations for a short time until things correct.
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开玩笑说新上市公司今天刚出现
@Ryan76589177 @TheMarathon8320 老哥，$CBRS 今天才刚上市，手下留情一点吧。
英文原文
@Ryan76589177 @TheMarathon8320 Bro $CBRS is a newly listed company today, cut me some slack.
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不接受 CRBS 在 700 亿美元估值下的价格
@TheMarathon8320 我喜欢 $CRBS，但在 700 亿美元估值下不喜欢，所以不行
英文原文
@TheMarathon8320 I like $CRBS but not at a $70B valuation, so nope
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猜测那只是第三方财富管理经理
@dominicpoks 那大概率只是一个第三方财富管理经理。不过如果这些持仓更偏向他的政策立场，我也不会惊讶。
英文原文
@dominicpoks This was likely a third party wealth manager. But would not be surprised if the picks were centered more around his policies.
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把总统的持仓风格比作 FinX 网红
为什么我们总统的股票交易风格像个 FinX 网红……一路做多半导体供应链，从 $JBL 到 $AMAT？ 看起来更像是一只自制 ETF，而不是在挑单只 long。 如果他也买 $CRBS，我完全不会意外，哈哈。 如果你好奇，这里是前 100 个多头仓位。
英文原文
Why is our president stock trading like a FinX influencer... Going long on semi supply chains like $JBL to $AMAT? Looks more like a self-made ETF rather than picking individual longs tbh. Not surprised if he picks up $CRBS too lol. Here were the top 100 long positions if you were curious.
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解释 POET 订单激励其实也利好 SIVE
这些 warrants 确实有助于激励 $POET 再增加 5 亿美元的采购订单。 不过我不在意，实际上它对 $SIVE 更有利，而不是对 Poet 更有利，因为 Sivers 会拿到那 5 亿美元 $POET BOM 激光订单里很大一部分，而且不需要承担同样的激励抵押。 只是市场现在还没看懂这个细节。
英文原文
The warrants do help incentivize the $500m in extra purchase orders for $POET though. But I'm not complaining, it's actually more beneficial to $SIVE than it is to Poet, since Sivers gets all the large percent of that $500M $POET BOM of laser orders without that incentive as collateral. Just don't think markets know that nuance yet.
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评论CPO供应链分析文章，指出Sivers与多家光互联芯片公司存在映射关系。
很有意思的阅读！觉得你覆盖了关于整体CPO增长曲线的大部分重要观点，写了一个很好的牛市案例。 特别是关于$SIVE如何服务于Ayar、$JBL和$POET，并通过与Win合作采用资本支出轻量的晶圆厂轻资产模式实现规模化。 实际上还有大量与$MRVL Celestial、Lightelligence、Lightmatter以及其他参与者的供应链映射关系，以及$AAPL等用于相邻SiPH垂直领域的玩家。 但不包括更多尚未100%确认的参与者是合理的。不过O-Net/enablence ELS面向亚洲超大规模业者这一点已得到确认（文章中没有看到这一点）。 但这也说明了Sivers映射到的玩家数量众多。
英文原文
Fun read! Think you covered majority of the important points regarding the overall CPO growth curve and wrote a great bull case. Especially how $SIVE feeds into Ayar, $JBL, and $POET + scales using capex light fab-lite model with Win. There's actually a ton of supply chain mapping with $MRVL Celestial, Lightelligence, Lightmatter, and others of players like $AAPL for adjacent SiPH verticals. But makes sense not to include more not 100% confirmed players. O-Net/enablence ELS for Asian hyperscalers was confirmed though (didnt see that there) But just goes to show many players Sivers maps to.
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把 POET 的大单和 SIVE 的激光瓶颈联系起来
如果你还不知道，$POET 因为 Lumilens 的一笔 5000 万美元采购，盘前涨了 22%。 后续还会按更长期框架扩到 5 亿美元。 正如 Sivers 2025 年报里提到的：$POET 会在 2026 年下半年和 $SIVE 一起放量。 这些中游玩家往上反向拉动 $SIVE 的需求，而激光就是一切的 chokepoint。 所以，是的，这对 Sivers 极度利好。
英文原文
If you didn't know $POET is up 22% premarket on a $50m purchase from Lumilens. Scaling to $500m with a longer term framework. As mentioned in Sivers 2025 annual report: $POET is ramping up H2 2026 with $SIVE. Any demand from these midstream players back to $SIVE as the laser chokepoint for everything. So yes, this is highly bullish for Sivers.
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认为 SIVE 的光学侧信息全都很牛
我的意思是，$SIVE 光学侧给出的信息几乎全是我想听到的？ -> H2 开始放量 -> TAM 扩展到 pluggable transceivers -> 除了 $JBL 之外，还有多家新的潜在 hyperscaler 供应商在测试/认证他们的激光器，用于 pluggable。 -> Win Semi 产能已经锁定。
英文原文
I mean $SIVE delivered everything I wanted to hear on their optical side? -> Volume ramp starting H2 -> TAM expansion into pluggable transceivers -> Multiple new likely hyperscaler suppliers testing/qualifying their lasers for pluggable aside from $JBL. -> Win Semi capacity secured.
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$SIVE 年报显示 CPO 与 pluggable 双线扩张
$SIVE 2025 年报分析。 TLDR：非常看多。 Sivers 的主增长向量是 CPO，但他们已经把 TAM 扩展到 pluggable transceivers，以及多项新的 qualification / development。 1. “We are currently seeing great interest... testing our DFB lasers across multiple manufacturers in pluggable transceivers” 从 pluggable 角度看，我们已经在 $JBL 的 1.6T LRO 上看到类似情况，而年报暗示他们还在和更多 hyperscaler 供应商开发 / 认证。 “Our serviceable markets have now been expanded to include pluggable optical interconnects as well as scale-up and scale-out architectures for co-packaged” （TAM 扩张） 2. “Discussions with hyperscalers and pluggable transceiver suppliers indicate a shortage of CW lasers in the coming years” $LITE 已经提示过 CW laser 的瓶颈，他们甚至不得不外购竞品。我们之前其实就猜到 CW laser 会是瓶颈。 而这次年报确认了这一点，所以我也在看 Win Semi。 “The partnership announced with high-volume supplier Win Semiconductor in March 2025 now gives us a strong position to meet growing demand” $SIVE 很可能已经通过 Win 锁定了产能，这正是我最想确认的。 这把 Sivers 放在了 CW laser 既是瓶颈又是 CPO 激光架构领导者的位置。 H2 量产信号（看多）： 3. “The collaboration positions both companies to address the rapidly growing market for optical AI connectivity, with prototypes to be demonstrated to customers during the first half of 2026 and with the goal of scaling up production by the end of 2026” H1 更偏 preproduction，H2 才是量产启动，像 $POET 那样。 4. “We are pleased that our largest LIDAR customer will increase production starting in the fourth quarter of 2026” $AEVA 在 2026 年 Q4 开始量产，对 $SIVE 也是利好。 LIDAR 提供了 revenue floor，而他们的 CPO 正在放量。 5. Sivers 还宣布和 LIGHTIUM AG 合作，把 CW laser 直接整合到 TFLN wafers 上。3.2T+ 周期，属于未来防守。 顺带说一下，去年 2025 的财报本身，除了瑞典本地媒体/散户外，真没几个像样的投资者会在意。 尤其当你看的是 2027-2028 的 CPO 超级周期时。 但从财报和地理布局里你能提取到的一个高置信客户信号是：$NOK 现在已经是 $SIVE 的高置信客户。 TLDR： -> Win Semi 暗示在 CW laser 瓶颈下锁定了产能 -> 新一批 hyperscaler 供应商在测试/认证 pluggable transceivers，TAM 巨大扩张 -> 新的 CW laser 客户 -> photonics 和 lidar 都在 H2 开始量产爬坡。
英文原文
$SIVE 2025 annual report analysis. TLDR: Extremely Bullish. Sivers main growth vector is CPO, but they've TAM expansioned to pluggable transcivers + multiple new qualifications/development. 1. "We are currently seeing great interest... testing our DFB lasers across multiple manufacturers in pluggable transceivers" For pluggable angle, we've seen this with $JBL 1.6T LRO already, but annual report hinted they're developing/qualifying with more hyperscaler suppliers. "Our serviceable markets have now been expanded to include pluggable optical interconnects as well as scale-up and scale-out architectures for co-packaged" (TAM expansion) 2. "Discussions with hyperscalers and pluggable transceiver suppliers indicate a shortage of CW lasers in the coming years" $LITE already signaled CW laser bottlenecks, and they had to buy externally from competitors. So we kinda guessed CW Laser was a bottleneck. And this confirmed it, so was wondering about Win semi. "The partnership announced with high-volume supplier Win Semiconductor in March 2025 now gives us a strong position to meet growing demand" $SIVE likely has capacity locked in with Win from this nuance, which is exactly what I wanted to know. This positions Sivers in the CW laser as both a bottleneck and CPO laser architectural leader. VOLUME PRODUCTION H2 INDICATIONS (BULLISH): 3. "The collaboration positions both companies to address the rapidly growing market for optical AI connectivity, with prototypes to be demonstrated to customers during the first half of 2026 and with the goal of scaling up production by the end of 2026" H1 is more preproduction, H2 production signaled starting with names like $POET. 4. "We are pleased that our largest LIDAR customer will increase production starting in the fourth quarter of 2026" $AEVA start of volume production Q4 with $SIVE = bullish for both. Revenue floor from LIDAR as their CPO scales. 5. Sivers announced a partnership with LIGHTIUM AG to integrate their CW lasers directly onto TFLN wafers. 3.2T+ cycle. (future proofing) FYI no decent investor cares about last year's 2025 financials from development contracts aside from Swedish Media/Locals. Especially when you're forward looking for the 2027-2028 CPO supercycle. But the hint from you can take away from financials + geography that is $NOK is now the high confidence customer of $SIVE. TLDR: -> Win Semi implied capacity lock in during CW laser bottleneck -> Hints of new group of hyperscaler suppliers testing/qualification for pluggable transcivers, which is massive TAM expansion. -> New customers for CW lasers -> Volume production scaling starting H2 for both photonics and lidar.
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认为 MicroLED 对短期光电敞口没有吸引力
在我看来，未来一年里任何 MicroLED 都是在为 CPO / photonics 曝险浪费资本。 像 ams-OSRAM、AUO、Ennostar、Tyntek、PlayNitride 这些名字。 如果它们真能起量，量产大概率也要到 2028 年下半年或者 2029 年上半年。 你还不如把它们当作别的业务线来看。
英文原文
IMO anything MicroLED is a waste of capital for CPO/photonics exposure over the next year. Names like ams-OSRAM/AUO/Ennostar/Tyntek/PlayNitride, etc. Any volume shipments would probably be H2 2028 or H1 2029 if it even takes off from development stage. You're better looking at them for their other business segments.
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提到本地杂志报道
@tomhou101 来自 “Wealth Magazine” 的本地报道
英文原文
@tomhou101 Local report from “Wealth Magazine”
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顺手祝贺对方
@zephyr_z9 啊好主意，恭喜
英文原文
@zephyr_z9 Ah good call, congrats
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惊讶某标的现在估值比 FOCI 还高
@zephyr_z9 我其实很惊讶它现在的估值比 foci 还高。 https://t.co/oXeBZHFhn8
英文原文
@zephyr_z9 I’m surprised it has a higher valuation now than foci tho https://t.co/oXeBZHFhn8
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爆料 Shunsin 拿下 AVGO 的 CPO/SiPH 订单
我错过了一篇很有意思的报道：Shunsin（6451）拿到了 $AVGO 的 CPO / SiPH 订单…… 而且他们的 EPS 增长率可能会超过 1240%。 当然这还是保密内容，媒体也只是猜测。 但这也说得通：你们那些顶级玩家都用 Foxconn 做光学封装 / 测试。 https://t.co/aqnUQEQdYS
英文原文
Interesting report that I missed that Shunsin (6451) landed $AVGO CPO/SiPH orders… And their EPS growth rate could reach over 1240%. Of course this is confidential and is media speculation. But makes sense that all your top players use Foxconn for optical packaging/test. https://t.co/aqnUQEQdYS
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看好 FOCI 在未来两年大幅跑赢
说实话，我预计 FOCI（3363）在接下来两年会远远打爆预期。 这个价位对我来说是中期非常高置信度的持仓。 因为他们预计会成为 $NVDA 和 $TSM 的领先供应商，而且经常被提到是支撑 2028 年 $91B+ CPO TAM 的关键瓶颈（GS）。 太离谱了：一个推动规模化所必需的关键 CPO 瓶颈，市值只有 30 亿美元；而 LightWave Logic 这种还在开发阶段的公司，市值也差不多有 27 亿美元。
英文原文
Honestly I’m expecting FOCI (3363) to blow away projections over next two years. It’s a pretty high conviction position for me medium term at this level. Since they’re expected to be the leading supplier to $NVDA and $TSM and get frequently cited as a bottleneck for that $91B+ 2028 CPO TAM (GS). Insane how it’s $3B MC as a critical CPO bottleneck required for scale, while LightWave Logic literally has around the same valuation at $2.7B in development stage.
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发现 Nextronics 也是机器人供应链里被忽视的供应商
现在再想想…… Nextronics（8147）其实也是 Amazon 机器人供应链里一个很被低估的供应商。 所以 Amazon 越扩张，他们的收入也会越大（市值才约 2 亿美元，如果毛利率真能做到 38-40%，那影响应该会很明显）。 我之前只盯着 $NVDA 的 CPO 供应链，因为那是它们最大的增长向量。 但我也认为 Amazon 的机器人计划是最适合大规模生产的路线，因为每造一个内部机器人，就会降低 opex、削减 headcount、提升利润率。 而且整个生态都会受益。
英文原文
Now that I think about it more… Nextronics (8147) is a pretty undiscovered supplier to robotics supply chains like $AMZN too. So as Amazon scales up, so does their revenue (it’s only ~$200m mc so it should be material if they’re hitting 38-40% gross margins). I was only focusing on $NVDA CPO supply chains as their largest growth vector earlier. But I do think Amazon’s robotics program have the simplest route for mass production since each one they make internally lowers opex, cuts headcount, and improves profitability. And their whole ecosystem should benefit.
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只给了一个 Leaderdrive 回复
@BC17743 Leaderdrive
英文原文
@BC17743 Leaderdrive
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看好 Harmonic Drive 的人形机器人敞口
我觉得 Harmonic Drive（6324）是 GS research report 里列出来的人形机器人敞口里比较好的一个，估值大约 40 亿美元。 我个人也买了一些，作为敞口。 中国竞争对手也许会被用于大规模生产。 但我个人更偏好投资西方供应链，并把它们扶起来。
英文原文
Imo harmonic drive (6324) one of the better humanoid exposure names at $4B valuation listed in GS research report. Personally I picked some up for exposure. Chinese competitors might be used for mass production. But personal preference in investing in Western supply chains + build them up.
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认为 Amazon 在机器人领域被严重低估
@Dog_Ziller 我其实觉得 $AMZN 的机器人业务被严重低估了。 因为它立刻就能通过自动化降低 opex 和 headcount，带来实际收益。 至于通用人形机器人，$TSLA、Unitree、Figure、Boston Dynamics、Agibot、Agility 这些名字应该都会表现不错。
英文原文
@Dog_Ziller I actually think $AMZN for robotics is extremely underrated. Since since there’s immediate practical upside to lower opex + headcount for automation. But for general purpose $TSLA, Unitree, Figure, Boston Dynamics, Agibot, Agility, and others should do well.
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主张美国应扩产本土稀土，而不是只盯少数项目
@beroccan 我之前写过一篇文章，讲为什么美国需要扩张更多本土稀土项目，而不是只盯着像 $MP 这样的少数几个。 但对，稀土确实对压低成本很关键。 https://t.co/fLN7SdBegt
英文原文
@beroccan I wrote on article on why the US needs to scale more domestic rare earths projects rather than focusing on a few like $MP. But yes they’re critical to bring costs down https://t.co/fLN7SdBegt
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从 CAD CEO 的说法看好机器人，但强调去中国供应链化
“机器人可能会成为史上最大的产品类别”——$CDNS CEO。 “预测是 25 万亿美元。全球 GDP 才 110 万亿美元。所以如果这真发生了，那就太大了。” 我方向上对机器人 / 人形机器人非常看多。 但也许现在是时候让 $TSLA 和美国真正开始优先考虑，如何在中国供应链之外去建设它了？
英文原文
“Robotics may be the biggest product category of all time” - $CDNS CEO. “The projection is $25 trillion. The whole GDP of the world is $110 trillion. So this is huge if this happens.” Extremely bullish on robotics/humanoids directionally. But maybe it’s time for $TSLA and America to really start prioritizing how we build it outside Chinese supply chains?
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强调散户在不少标的上比机构更早
@Jglad011 这些名字里，散户很多时候确实比机构更早。尤其是多亏了 X。
英文原文
@Jglad011 Retail was earlier than institutions on many of these. Especially thanks to X.
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日文回复：终于看到 NBIS 被正确定价
@beauty_oe 我也真的很高兴 $NBIS 最终拿到了非常不错的结果！虽然有几个月都在跌，但市场终于把它正确定价了。
英文原文
@beauty_oe $NBIS が最終的にすごくいい結果になって本当に嬉しいよ！数ヶ月くらい下がってた時期もあったけど、やっと市場が正しく評価してくれてよかった。
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总结 photonics 当天暴涨说明仍在早期
光子这一天也太疯狂了。 $SIVE 涨 31.3% $TSEM 涨 23.1% $AAOI 涨 20.01%。 这看起来很多……但这只说明你还站在下一轮超级周期的早期，而且后面还有很大空间。 X 上很多人会问：$SNDK 之后是什么？ 就是这些。 https://t.co/jTeHpYtf0n
英文原文
What an insane day for photonics. $SIVE up 31.3% $TSEM up 23.1% $AAOI 20.01%. It feels like a lot… but this just means you’re early to the next supercycle and there’s a lot of room to go. Lot of people on X ask what’s next after $SNDK? Here they are. https://t.co/jTeHpYtf0n
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强调 POET 从 6 美元到 14 美元的三位数收益
@MajorOcelot45 我只是看结果，这些都是粉丝高置信度的建议。 这里提到 $POET 时才 6 美元，现在已经 14 美元了，所以一个月三位数回报，没什么好争的……
英文原文
@MajorOcelot45 I’m only looking at results, these are follower high conviction suggestions. $POET was mentioned at $6 here, it’s $14 now, so can’t argue with triple digit returns in a month…
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夸大家一起整理的名单已经大涨
哇，你们一起整理出来的这份名单……真的太强了。 很多都已经涨了 2 到 6 倍。
英文原文
Woah, this list compiled by you all…. Actually cooked so hard. Many are up 2-6 times already.