全部推文
共 6386 条 · 第 38 / 213 页 · 滚到底自动加载更多
-
SIVE 还在欧洲交易，希望尽快美股化
@softmaxedx 对，像 $SIVE 这种名字现在还在欧洲交易，遗憾的是还受瑞典本地市场流动性影响。 希望它尽快变成美国公司。
英文原文
@softmaxedx Yep names like $SIVE are still trading in Europe sadly and are affected by regional Swedish market liquidity. Hope it ends up an American company soon enough.
-
回顾 SOI 从 40 到 171 又回落
当我做 $SOI 的 thesis 时，它从 40 -> 61 -> 53（伊朗战争紧张）-> 171…… 现在又因为伊朗战争紧张回到 144。 偶尔出现一些宏观相关回调其实是健康的。 通常会带来更高的高点，但我还是很愿意拿着。 对别人来说也许是买点，因为很多公司的基本面其实没有变。
英文原文
When I did my thesis on $SOI it went from 40 -> 61 -> 53 (Iran war tensions) -> 171… Now is back down to 144 (Iran war tensions). It’s healthy to get some macro related corrections from time to time. Usually leads to higher highs, but im gladly holding though it. Might be a buying opportunity for others since fundamentals of a lot of these companies didn’t change.
-
宏观导致欧洲相关标的下跌
哇，欧洲今天真惨。 看起来从 $SOI 到 $LPK 等很多名字都因为纯宏观因素跌了 10-20%。 有意思的是，如果战事情绪像往常一样翻转，这些名字应该还会高很多。 https://t.co/7JYmFAzcTv
英文原文
Woah, rough day for Europe. Looks like everything from $SOI to $LPK and others are down 10-20% from overwhelmingly macro. Fun thing if war sentiment flips, as they often do with our president… lot of these names should go a lot higher. https://t.co/7JYmFAzcTv
-
认为 FLNC 可能因浮筹解锁而错失反弹
@0xResurge 对，时机确实很不幸。 如果公司什么都不做，本来完全可能看到 $FLNC 翻倍。但浮筹解锁会形成很强的心理压制，即使没有人真的卖出。
英文原文
@0xResurge Yeah it’s unfortunate timing. Could have easily seen $FLNC doubling if the company left things alone. But the float unlock creates a ton of psychological overhang, even if nothing is sold.
-
解释 FLNC 20M 股增发/解锁带来的短期压力
$FLNC 的 2000 万股发行，如果你想知道为什么它在跌。 这 2000 万股并不算稀释，而是锁定解锁 + 转移，所以只是换手。 真正的问题是条款会让 117,666,665 股里剩余大约 9700 万股的 shelf-registered resale capacity 继续打开，据我所知。 这对短期交易是明显的负面，而且影响很大，因为它扩大了流通盘，也带来了短期卖压。 这就是 overhang…… 我在看到这个意外消息后，确实降低了仓位，因为它改变了我对这个交易的判断。 不过我还是留了一点，想看看后面 hyperscaler deals 会把它带到哪。 我不是在告诉大家该怎么做，只是在呈现公司管理层制造出来的新 overhang。
英文原文
$FLNC 20M share offering if you’re wondering why it’s trading down. The 20M share is not dilution, but share unlock + transfer. So change of hands. The biggest problem was the clause that made active shelf-registered resale capacity of the 117,666,665 shares, so there’s an unlock of the other remaining ~97m shares to my knowledge. Net negative and very material to short term trade ideas. Since it expands the float and it introduces short term selling pressure. That’s the overhang… I personally cut concentration on the surprising news since it’s changes my trade idea with the float structure. But holding some anyway to see where it heads after hyperscaler deals. Definitely not telling people what to do, presenting new material overhang created by company management.
-
寻求人形机器人早期纯正标的，2年内10倍潜力
好了各位。我需要一些关于人形机器人敞口的早期$RKLB equivalents（类早期Rocket Lab标的）的想法。未来2年内10倍+的潜在回报，且比$TSLA更纯正的人形机器人相关敞口。你们最好的想法是什么？
英文原文
All right chat. I need some more ideas on the early $RKLB equivalent for humanoid exposure. 10x+ potential returns only in the next 2 years and more pure play exposure than $TSLA. What’s your best ideas?
-
Auros 基本面未变，等下半年量产爬坡
@SharkSociety_ Auros 没什么变化，我在现在价格下依然觉得它有吸引力。现在只是等 SK Hynix / Samsung 在 H2 某个时候通过认证后开始放量。 在那之前大概率还会有波动。
英文原文
@SharkSociety_ Nothings changed with Auros and I find it compelling at current prices. It's just waiting on SK Hynix/Samsung volume ramp sometime H2 from qualification right now. There's probably going to be volatility up until then.
-
为上纳斯达克而稀释一点点反而利好 SIVE
为了登陆 NASDAQ 稀释 2.5%，对 $SIVE 来说其实非常看多；我看到它在美国市场交易后会走向 30 亿美元以上市值。 我认为它现在价格被低估了，只是还被瑞典本地市场限制着。 我个人不太明白为什么 $LWLG 和 $POET 能值 23 亿到 26 亿美元，而 Sivers 只大约 15 亿美元，却在给大量 hyperscaler 供应商供货。
英文原文
The 2.5% dilution to get listed on NASDAQ is actually extremely bullish with $SIVE, and I see it heading to $3B+ once its trading on US markets. I think it's undervalued at current prices, but just limited by local Swedish markets right now. I'm personally not sure how $LWLG and $POET are worth $2.3B - $2.6B while Sivers is ~$1.5B supplying to a vast amount of hyperscaler suppliers.
-
解释设计/IP 型公司人手少是正常的
好问题！$SIVE 这种做 IP / design 的公司，员工数量没那么重要。 很多媒体在和 $COHR 这种需要成千上万人做组装的公司对比时，忽略了其中的差异。 $SIVE 把设计交给 Win Semi / $GFS 去生产，这也是我更喜欢这种模式的原因之一，因为在它们真正形成可观收入、再去做纵向整合之前，这样能大幅降低 capex 和稀释风险。 从美国视角看，我个人把这看成优点：保持轻资产和可扩展性。
英文原文
Hey great question! So $SIVE headcount doesn't matter as much when you're doing IP/design. Lot of media misunderstand nuances, when they compare it with $COHR that have tens of thousands of people... which are required for assembly. $SIVE ships their designs off to Win Semi / $GFS which handles all the production. Which is why I liked this model a lot more since it reduces a lot of capex and dilution risk until they make material revenue to vertically integrate. I personally see it as a plus, keeping things lean and scalable from an American perspective.
-
欧洲媒体看空的名字后来都在创新高
就在 3 个月前，欧洲媒体还把我的 $RPI thesis 叫成“meme stock”，说盈利不该被纳入决策。 2 个月前，$SOI 被说成“估值过高，thesis 没有新东西”。 这个月又轮到 $SIVE，被说成“没什么特别的，Sivers 或 CPO 早就存在很多年了”。 结果这三个现在年内都还在创新高，而且都是三位数回报。尤其是 Raspberry Pi，在把前瞻收入增长预期从约 15% 押到 52% 到 55% 后，表现非常夸张。 我也预计这三只（$RPI、$SIVE、$SOI）会继续在 AI、SiPH 和 CPO 的驱动下交出创纪录增长。 也许每次这些负面稿子出来之后，欧洲媒体都该照照镜子？ 真正盯基本面的那些人，反而成了他们嘲笑的对象。
英文原文
Just 3 months ago, European media called my $RPI thesis: "A Meme Stock" where earnings isn't factored into decisions. 2 months ago, $SOI was labeled "overvalued, with nothing new with the thesis". This month it's $SIVE is "nothing special with Sivers or CPO, it's been around for years". Each are still hitting YTD highs with triple digit returns. Especially, Raspberry PI after it shattered projections by 52% to 55% fwd. rev growth from ~15% est. And I expect all 3 ($RPI, $SIVE, and $SOI) to keep delivering record growth as AI, SiPH, and CPO drive structural re-rating. Maybe after each negative hit piece... it's time for European media to look in a mirror? The ones focusing on actual fundamentals are the ones they're mocking.
-
Win 也是光学敞口里的关键瓶颈
@LIWEI_TWCapital 对，Win 也应该算上，我刚才忘了。 它在光学敞口里其实被严重低估了，而且我觉得它会成为明年的一个瓶颈，因为他们在帮 $SIVE 做激光量产爬坡。
英文原文
@LIWEI_TWCapital Yeah Win should be on there too forgot about it. It's really understated for optical exposure and I see it being one of the bottlenecks next year since they're helping $SIVE with laser volume ramp.
-
AAOI 是极强的 pluggable 敞口
@hmmmmmm1458 $AAOI 是极强的 pluggable 敞口……我还在犹豫 CPO 到底是更利好它，还是更伤害它。
英文原文
@hmmmmmm1458 $AAOI is extreme pluggable exposure... Still debating if CPO helps them more than it hurts
-
别拿 HIMS 的药和 TSM 的 FAU 供应商相比
@mrng2019 为什么要把 $HIMS 的睾酮药片，和 $TSM 的 COUPE FAU 供应商放在一起比呢。
英文原文
@mrng2019 Why are we comparing $HIMS testosterone pills with the $TSM FAU supplier for COUPE.
-
澄清 Auros 属内存领域、CPO 属光子学领域的分类问题
@carrymonkey 你们这群蠢驴，Auros 是内存（memory）类公司。CPO 是光子学（photonics），我已经收到大约 5 个关于这个的问题了。
英文原文
@carrymonkey You bunch of donkeys Auros is memory. CPO is photonics, I've gotten like 5 questions about this.
-
列出自己喜欢的一串 CPO 相关名字
和 CPO 相关、我喜欢的一些名字： - $SIVE - Foci (3363) - $TSEM - Browave (3163) - PCL (4977) - $AXTI - Msscorps (6830) - $IQE - Shunsin (6451) - Furukawa Electric (5801) - $MTSI - Nextronics (8417) - $LITE - $COHR - FitTech (6706) - $GFS - $ASX - LandMark (3081) - $SOI 披露一下：我大多都持有，但不是全部。
英文原文
Random CPO related names I like: - $SIVE - Foci (3363) - $TSEM - Browave (3163) - PCL (4977) - $AXTI - Msscorps (6830) - $IQE - Shunsin (6451) - Furukawa Electric (5801) - $MTSI - Nextronics (8417) - $LITE - $COHR - FitTech (6706) - $GFS - $ASX - LandMark (3081) - $SOI Disclosure: I own most, not all though.
-
随口提到 Swatch x AP 的联动想法
@TR0ND0N 也是啦，我只是刚好想到，因为 Swatch 和 AP 这个联动一直在时间线上刷到。
英文原文
@TR0ND0N That’s true, I just had a random thought in my head since this collab between swatch and ap kept popping up on the timeline
-
猜 AP x Swatch 热卖会不会传导到股价
看起来 X 上每个人都在抢 AP x Swatch 手表的发售。 我有点好奇，这会不会通过销量提升，反映到 $SWGAY / $UHR（Swatch）的股价上？ https://t.co/D7cSNURIq5
英文原文
Seems like everyone on X is looking to hoard AP x Swatch watches on release. I’m curious if that will show up in $SWGAY / $UHR (Swatch) stock prices from increased sales? https://t.co/D7cSNURIq5
-
因为会影响真实生活，所以更认真研究 Towa
嗯，因为我知道这会影响现实中别人的生活，所以哪怕只是短期时间尺度，如果我判断错了，我也会真的很难受。 所以我会拼尽全力做研究，确保自己有足够把握。 不是所有事都会按我想的走，但我仍然坚信 TOWA 在今年下半年业绩会增长。 而且我觉得市场误解了这次财报，所以后面大概率会反弹。
英文原文
うん、現実の人たちの生活に影響が出るってわかってるから、たとえ短期的なスパンであっても、自分の考えが間違っていると本当に辛いんだ。 だから、間違いないって確信できるくらい、全力でリサーチするようにしてる。 全てが思い通りにいくわけじゃないけど、それでも今年の下半期に向けてTOWAの業績は伸びると確信してるよ。 それに、市場は今回の決算を誤解してると思うから、たぶんここから持ち直すんじゃないかな。
-
Towa 业绩下跌是短期误判的教训
哎，Towa（6315）财报后跌了 20%。 这也是我学到的一个教训：我确实会在某些想法上犯错，尤其是短期时间尺度。 $NBIS 在去年 12 月 / 1 月的时候也是一样…… 但等到半年后，当 thesis 有足够时间兑现时，它已经涨了三位数。 https://t.co/1kJK7WeT9Y
英文原文
Ouch, Towa (6315) down 20% on earnings. Good lesson learned that I do get some ideas wrong. Especially on short term timeframes. Same thing with $NBIS back in Dec/Jan… But it is up triple digits now half a year later when there’s enough time for a thesis to play out. https://t.co/1kJK7WeT9Y
-
AEHR 一个月快涨 3 倍，说明节奏把得很准
顺便说一句，$AEHR 已经在 1 个月里接近涨了 3 倍。 我好像确实很擅长抓时间点？？ https://t.co/bIbpSXcYtP
英文原文
$AEHR is up close to 3x in 1 month by the way. I tend to get timing extremely well?? https://t.co/bIbpSXcYtP
-
反驳别人替我歪曲我对 IREN 的看法
我不明白为什么大家老是把我关于 $IREN 的话歪曲成别的意思。 我从来没这么说过。 我真正说的是，ATM 发行太多会在反弹时压制结构性的上行空间，因为股份会被不断卖进公开市场。 所以更好的做法，是去做多另一只真正能增值的股票。
英文原文
I'm not sure why people like putting words in my mouth with $IREN. I've never said that. What I've said was excessive ATM's cap structural upside on rallies because shares get sold into the open market. So it's better to go long on another equity that actually appreciates in value.
-
解释为什么每条帖子都会有人追问同样的问题
我不明白为什么每一条帖子下面，从 $AAOI 到 $LPK，大家都会问这种问题？ 我已经说过很多次了，$FLNC 宣布拿下两个新的 hyperscaler 合同之后，我是有仓位的。 但我确实觉得 $FLNC 很有吸引力，因为从 $GOOGL 到 $AMZN，hyperscaler 一般不会签小单。 尤其是看 $MSFT 和 $NBIS 的合同，很多内容都让人非常意外。
英文原文
Not sure why people ask these types of questions across every single stock from $AAOI to $LPK under every post? I've already said multiple times, I have positions after $FLNC earnings announced 2 new hyperscaler deals. But I do think $FLNC Is compelling since hyperscalers from $GOOGL to $AMZN don't sign small deals in general. Especially when you look at $MSFT contract with $NBIS a lot of it is a major surprise.
-
喜欢 NCI，也希望日本化工股被更多关注
@EVOLBullStocks 我其实很喜欢 NCI，也希望日本化工公司能获得更多关注。 只是这个行业本身太无聊了（但复利很好），而投资者现在似乎更偏爱 $SNDK 这种高增长故事。
英文原文
@EVOLBullStocks I actually like NCI a lot and hope Japanese chemical players get more attention. It's just a very boring type of industry (but great compounders) and investors seem to prefer the $SNDK hypergrowth stories right now.
-
强调要看财报而不是只看短线图形
我真的就是在分析财报，而不是看图。 去看财报后几分钟的股价反应来判断正负，其实很蠢。 像 $AAOI、$AEHR，或者我最近看过的任何单个财报，财报刚出来之后发生了什么都不重要，除非你是在做周度期权交易。 如果它跌了，但实际上结构上是正面的，那反而会成为买点，就像 $AAOI 那样。
英文原文
I'm literally analyzing earnings, not the chart. Looking at reactions shortly after to see if it's positive/negative is stupid. As seen with $AAOI, $AEHR or any single earnings I've looked at recently, it doesn't matter what happens right after unless you're weekly option trading. And if it drops, while it's actually structurally positive, then that's a buying opportunity as seen with $AAOI.
-
Towa财报短期因会计幻象被误读，长期H2布局极好，利润率拐点已至
关于Towa (6315)： 财报非常复杂。我原本的论点（短期）中对当前财报的"Beat"判断是错误的，这是我的失误。 但对于H2 2026来说，这是一个极好的结构性多头布局，而非H1。 TLDR：短期由于算法交易无法理解这些细微差别而看跌，长期非常积极（市场是前瞻性的） 营收 ¥54.36B（同比+1.7%）， 净利润 ¥4.59B（同比-43.4%）。 营业利润 ¥6.91B（同比-22.1%） 新闻标题写着"EPS暴跌-43.4%"或"订单不及预期"，这可能会触发算法交易抛售。 1. 正如你们在美国Towa交易中看到的，"EPS暴跌-43.4%"，算法可能已经根据标题卖出了。 -> 但这是由于去年有一笔一次性"损坏赔偿补偿"支出，以及去年价值13亿日元的一次性股票销售。 -> 此外，"新客户压缩设备的初始成本增加"也导致了本季度盈利能力下降。 所以这是一次会计幻象，并非真正的盈利能力问题+新订单规模化，是一次性的。 然而： 利润率拐点已经到来。这是最重要的信号。 全年营业利润率为12.7%。要使年平均达到12.7%，而Q1-Q3徘徊在10%左右，Q4应该需要达到约18.4%左右？ 这对未来盈利能力来说极其看涨，表明HBM压缩机正在发挥作用，与传统设备相比。 2. 订单"不及预期"： "随着前端工艺产能扩张，预计在2027年3月财年下半财年加速增长。" 这表明 $MU、Sk Hynix和其他公司尚未准备好空间，因为他们仍在建设前端晶圆厂生产线。 但H2，为大幅超预期做好了准备。需求可见度是存在的......只是营收/利润攀升被推迟到H2。 _ Towa前瞻指引预测销售额¥64.0B（同比+17.7%），营业利润¥10.24B（同比+48.0%），这标志着未来将创历史最高盈利能力。 IMO他们还压低了营收指引，因为他们明确表示下半年加速，但没有给出太多预期超预期。 日本公司也倾向于极度保守，他们的股息提高也是一个重要信号。 无论如何，我认为美国抛售可能只是由于负面会计标题+流动性较低。另外，我早了大约4-6个月。 但Towa在H2的布局非常积极。只是不是那种像 $SNDK $AAOI 那样单日10%+的爆发式公司。 TLDR：长期看涨，短期很多细微差别被标题误导了。 只需要再有耐心等待几个月。利润率正在上升，营收/订单被推迟到H2，股息提高，等等。
英文原文
For Towa (6315): Earnings are very nuanced. I got the current ER "Beat" wrong in my original thesis (short term), my bad. But it's an amazing structural long and setup for H2 2026 rather than H1. TLDR: Near term bearish algorithmically since they miss the nuance, very positive H2 (markets are forward looking) Revenue ¥54.36B (+1.7% YoY), Net Profit at ¥4.59B (-43.4% YoY). Operating Profit ¥6.91B (-22.1% YoY) News headlines say "EPS crashed -43.4%" or "order miss" that might trigger an algorithmic selloff. 1. As you've seen with US Towa trading, "EPS crashing -43.4%", and algos might have sold headlines. -> But this was due to last year, of one-off "compensation for damage" payout and one-time ¥1.3 billion yen stock sales from last year. -> Also "increased initial costs for new customers in compression equipment." for new equipment is caused profitability losses this quarter. So a bit of an accounting mirage, not really any profitability issues + scaling new orders, so one-off. However: Margin inflection point is already here. Which is the biggest signal. Full year operating margin was 12.7%. For the annual average to reach 12.7% when Q1-Q3 was hovering around ~10%, Q4 should have been around ~18.4% or something? Which is extremely bullish moving forward for profitability, and shows HBM compression machines are doing work, compared to legacy equipment. 2. Order book "miss": "Acceleration expected during the second half of fiscal year 3/27 as front-end process production capacity expands." This signals $MU, Sk Hynix, and others don't have the floor space ready yet, since they're still building front-end wafer fab lines. But H2, is setup for massive beat. Demand visibility is there... just revenue/profit ramp deferred to H2. _ Towa forward guidance forcasted ¥64.0B in Sales (+17.7% YoY) and ¥10.24B in Operating Profit (+48.0% YoY), which signals all time high profitability in the future. IMO they also sandbagged revenue guidance, since they literally said acceleration second-half but didn't give much of a projection beat. Japanese companies tend to be ultra conservative too, their dividend hike is a large signal too Regardless, I think the US selloff was probably just due to negative accounting headlines + lower liquidity. Also I was a bit too early by like 4-6 months. But Towa is an extremely positive setup for H2. Just not your explosive $SNDK $AAOI 10%+ a day type company. TLDR: Long term bullish, short term lot of nuances missed with headlines. Just need to wait a few more months if you have patience. Margins are increasing, revenue/orders deferred H2, dividend hikes, etc.
-
继续看空 IREN，认为它更像融资机器
正如我之前说的，$IREN 跟 $NBIS 比起来基本就是垃圾。 $NVDA 还没给 $IREN 融资。 所以 IREN 只能想办法通过 60 亿美元 ATM 和其他方式买足 GPU，把 5GW 产能变现。 这本质上就是一台无限稀释机，只是因为它拿到了电力。 我叫 $IREN 持有人 0 IQ，是因为他们只是为了拿到稀释而买入，却不理解融资结构的细节。 Nvidia 确实给了 $NBIS 资金。 而 IREN 只是拿到了一个允许它用 logo 的无风险采购协议。 $IREN 现在基本就是一家营销公司，而其他 Neocloud 才是真正让股权升值的公司。
英文原文
As I said before $IREN is basically dogsht compared to $NBIS. $NVDA didn’t give $IREN funding yet. So IREN needs to figure out how to buy enough GPUs to monetize 5GW capacity through their 6B ATM and other means. It’s an endless dilution machine just because they secured power. I call $IREN holders 0 IQ because they just buy in it to get diluted without understanding nuances of financing. Nvidia actually gave $NBIS funds. While Nvidia got a free no-risk purchase agreement for allowing $IREN to use their logo. $IREN is basically a marketing company at this point, while the other Neoclouds actually allow equity appreciation.
-
懊恼自己没在大涨前做多 MXL
@RyanGoldenberg2 老哥，我很气我没做多 $MXL。 我明明在整个拉升前就已经在订阅者聊天里点出来了。 https://t.co/7dC01zDLJH
英文原文
@RyanGoldenberg2 Bro I'm mad i didn't long $MXL. I literally called it out in subscribers chat before the entire rally. https://t.co/7dC01zDLJH
-
ALRIB 没变化，自己还持有
@0xMonney $ALRIB 没什么变化，就是没有新消息。 我还是持有我的多头仓位。
英文原文
@0xMonney Nothings changed with $ALRIB, just no new news. I still have my long positions.
-
LITE 被纳入指数后带动整个光学链条
@TomSzczypka $LITE 进了纳斯达克 100，资金流入会很多。 算法把 $SIVE、$AAOI、$AEHR 和其他名字都和 Lumentum 这个行业龙头关联起来了。 所以它们一起被带上去了。
英文原文
@TomSzczypka $LITE nasdaq 100 lot of inflow. Algorithms tied $SIVE, $AAOI, $AEHR, and others to Lumentum now as the sector leader. So they all got brought up together.
-
LITE 突破 1000 美元，自己方向判断没错
$LITE 现在已经超过 1000 美元了。你听了吗 anon？ 我方向上确实经常能把光学公司看对…… 所以我看到像 $AAOI 或 $SIVE 这些名字上的空头，真的会觉得很好笑。 https://t.co/agPpMQv8Xw
英文原文
$LITE is now over $1000. Did you listen anon? I do tend to get optical players directionally right... So it's hilarious when I see short sellers on names like $AAOI or $SIVE. https://t.co/agPpMQv8Xw