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SIVE 被大量做空，反而可能让空头很难受
今天才知道 $SIVE 被做空得这么狠…… 难道价格意外上涨，真的会把对冲基金打趴下？ 一个叫 Colosseum 的对冲基金，上个月跌了 19.8%，很大程度上就是因为他们做空了 Sivers。 接下来两年 CPO 以抛物线方式爬坡，他们就要面对无限损失。 Sivers 从来不是一个纯短挤压题材，因为从基本面看，它本身就是最有吸引力的 CPO 多头之一。 但这个副作用还是挺有意思的，尤其是现在他们可能还得回补一部分流通股。
英文原文
Today I learned $SIVE was so actively shorted... That the price going up accidentally might take down hedge funds? A hedge fund Colosseum is down -19.8% last month largely due to their short position of Sivers. They now face infinite losses as CPO ramps up parabolically over the next two years. Sivers was never a short squeeze play since fundamentally, it's one of the most compelling CPO related longs. But it's an interesting effect as a byproduct, especially now that they might need to buy back % of the float.
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认为 FLNC 应该更高估值
我其实觉得 $FLNC 应该更值钱。 一个季度里接连拿到 2 个直接 hyperscaler 合同，这个意义非常大。 $MSFT 到 $AMZN 不会签小单。 当然市场通常会等更多实际新闻 / 采购订单数字出来，怕它最后没落实或者比预期低。 但一家公司的确不会无缘无故宣布 2 个 hyperscaler MSA，还说订单会在 Q3 到。 而且一个季度赢得多个 hyperscaler 合同，本身就是后续更多合同的领先指标，尤其是 Fluence BESS 越来越标准化的时候。 考虑到空头比例大约 27.69%，我不确定财报前的空头是否真的敢冒这个险…… 如果像 $GOOGL 这样的 hyperscaler 签下大合同，我觉得有机会来一波历史级上涨。
英文原文
I actually think $FLNC should be a lot higher. The implications of having 2 incoming direct hyperscaler contracts in 1 quarter is enormous. $MSFT to $AMZN don't sign tiny deals. Obviously markets like to wait more until actual news/purchase order numbers come out... in the off-chance it doesn't go through or lower than expected. But a company doesn't just randomly announce 2 hyperscalers MSas and an expectation of the orders to hit Q3. Also winning multiple hyperscaler deals, in a single quarter is a leading indicator for more, especially as Fluence BESS becomes standardized. Given short interest is around 27.69%, I'm not sure if pre-earnings short sellers are very comfortable to take a risk... I think there's a chance for a generational run if a hyperscaler like $GOOGL signs a massive contract.
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AAOI 的财报下跌反而给了更好的买点
@Jess252530 对，我最后还是买了那次下跌，并且一路摊上去了。 其实当时的业绩预测非常看多，大家不应该因为 $AAOI 的当前财报就不看它，如果它是 2027 年下半年才真正进入成长的公司。
英文原文
@Jess252530 Yeah I ended up buying that drop and cost averaging up. It was actually extremely bullish projections, people shouldn't care about the current earnings reports for $AAOI if it's a 2027 late H1 growth company.
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依旧看空 IREN，认为融资结构更差
@LMutaaya 大家当时在我 71 美元看空 $IREN 时都说“你在开玩笑吧”。 $NVDA 没有给他们融资，所以他们需要通过别的方式去借钱买 GPU，支撑 5GW 产能。 可转换债其实比 ATM 好得多。
英文原文
@LMutaaya People were saying "WERE YOU KIDDING" when I posted I was bearish on $IREN at $71. $NVDA isn't giving them any funding, so they need to raise elsewhere to buy GPUs for their 5 GW capacity. Convertible notes is actually a lot better way to go than ATMs though.
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学会真正分析财报，而不是只看图
学会真正分析财报，是个很好的教训。 而不是财报后立刻只看图。 $AAOI 自从财报跌到 139 美元后已经涨了 25.18%，今天又涨了 16.09%。 https://t.co/mP1Yqq5b1A
英文原文
It’s a good lesson to learn how to actually analyze earnings reports. Rather than looking at the chart right afterward. $AAOI up 25.18% since ER drop to $139… and +16.09% today. https://t.co/mP1Yqq5b1A
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2.5% 稀释已解决，反而是重大利好
@DVoskens 今天 2.5% 的稀释已经解决了。这个事情之前就计划了很久。 人们 / 算法通常会对稀释反应负面，但在 $SIVE 这个例子里，其实极度正面。
英文原文
@DVoskens The 2.5% dilution was resolved today. It was planned for awhile. People/algos typically react negatively to dilution but in this case with $SIVE it’s incredibly positive
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分析Sivers作为CPO激光供应商的市场地位及垂直整合潜力。
我并没有说Sivers现在就应该被估值到100亿美元以上。 我说的是，如果Sivers在美股市场上市，我预期它的估值会在30亿美元左右。明年可能达到100亿美元以上。 因为他们很可能是$SIVE（$JBL、$MRVL、AMD、Ayar、els、Lightmatter、$POET等公司）的激光供应商，用于CPO或1.6T光收发器。 而且我高度确信他们正在与$AAPL合作开发用于消费类设备的硅光子(SiPH)技术。 根据高盛报告，CPO整体TAM（可寻址市场）在未来两年将从零增长到910亿美元。 Sivers向各大厂商供货，并从$LITE因受$NVDA产能分配限制以及2027年产量爬坡影响而停滞的溢出需求中获益。 然后他们只需要复制$LITE和$COHR的做法，通过收购封装IP或更多光引擎IP，向下游垂直整合完整的ELS（外接激光源）。 但首先他们得掌握激光这个瓶颈环节——而他们现在已经在做了。
英文原文
I didn’t say it should be valued at $10B+ today. I said I expected $SIVE to be around ~$3B if they were listed on US markets. And could be $10B+ next year Since they likely are the laser supplier to $JBL, $MRVL, $AMD, Ayar, onet(els), Lightmatter, $POET and many others for CPO or 1.6T optical transceivers. And high confidence work with $AAPL on SiPH for their consumer devices. CPO overall tam goes from 0 to $91B in the next two years from GS report. Sivers supplies to major players, and captures overflow from $LITE getting stalled out by capacity allocations from $NVDA and volume ramps over 2027. Then they just need to pull a $LITE $COHR then vertically integrate IP downstream by doing the full ELS by buying packaging IP or more optical engine IP. But that starts off by owning the laser chokepoint which they do now
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认为纳斯达克上市带来的稀释是正面的
跟很多人 / 算法想的不一样： 让 $SIVE 通过 2.5% 稀释，实际上在这个案例里是非常正面的。 因为这能让它尽快在美国纳斯达克上市。 我不确定是否存在什么股份发行套利在影响短期价格。 但获得美国机构资本、加快扩张、把公司从瑞典小市场里重新定价，才是首要任务。
英文原文
Contrary to what people/algos think: Getting 2.5% dilution passed with $SIVE is actually extremely positive in this case. Since that helps them get listed on US Nasdaq ASAP. Not sure if there’s any share issuance arbitrage at all impacting short term prices. But getting access to US institutional capital to accelerate expansion + repricing out of small Swedish markets is priority.
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没卖过 SIVE，依旧最看好激光公司
@Leon8995385220 我不控制 $SIVE 的盘中波动。 我一股都没卖过，因为它真的是我见过的、在 CPO 2027 放量背景下最有吸引力的激光公司。
英文原文
@Leon8995385220 I don’t control intraday volatility with $SIVE. Haven’t sold a single share since it’s genuinely the most compelling laser company I’ve seen as CPO scales up 2027.
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IQE 过去三个月涨 4 倍，债务缓解降低长期风险
还不错吧？ $IQE 在过去 3 个月里已经涨了 4 倍。 $MTSI 帮它还债，确实在长期上降低了风险。 我很好奇，有没有 anon 听进去了？ https://t.co/OFoSaFWSa9
英文原文
Not too shabby? $IQE is now up 4x since in the past 3 months. $MTSI paying off their debts does derisk the company long term. I’m curious if anyone listened anon? https://t.co/OFoSaFWSa9
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猜测 SIVE 未来可能变成美国光子公司
@MrPelican2025 我不会惊讶如果有一天 $SIVE 变成一家美国光子公司。
英文原文
@MrPelican2025 I would not be surprised if $SIVE became an American photonics company one day.
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给出 SIVE 未来市值路径与对标 LITE 的想法
我觉得 $SIVE 明年会到 100 亿美元以上，到了 2028 年如果管理层把牌打好，能扩到 400 亿美元以上。 这很大程度上取决于管理层是不是足够有野心，想不想成为下一个 $LITE。 但这正是 Lumentum 当年怎么做的：先拥有 laser chokepoint，再向下游买 IP，把更多 TAM 吃进去。
英文原文
I think $SIVE ends up $10B+ next year and can scale to $40B+ in 2028 if they play their cards right. Really depends on how ambitious management is if they want to become the next $LITE. But this is exactly how Lumentum started owning the laser chokepoint then IP acquisition downstream to capture more TAM.
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继续把重心放在散户而不是机构
@m1iles 太好了，听到这个很开心！我的目标就是用新的想法帮助普通散户，而不是机构。
英文原文
@m1iles Yay glad to hear that! My goal is to help out the everyday retail investor with new ideas rather than institutions.
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希望 FLNC 两个月内实现三位数回报
@Jornka329996 如果 $FLNC 两个月内没给我三位数回报，我会很失望。 我现在就是想冲到 30……
英文原文
@Jornka329996 I’d be disappointed if $FLNC didn’t triple digit return in two months. I’m trying to hit 30
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LPK 年内已成自己第 19 个翻倍以上持仓
现在 $LPK 已经成了我年内第 19 只 100-1000%+ 回报的个股。 今天又涨了 4.57%。 通常 1 或 2 只已经很不错了，但我今年已经写过并做多了 19 只上涨三位数的股票。 老实说我自己都挺佩服自己的。
英文原文
And now $LPK is #19 on the list of my individual stocks that returned 100-1000%+ YTD. After going up +4.57% today. Usually 1 or 2 is good, but I’ve written about and went long on 19 different stocks this year that went up triple digits. I’m kinda impressed with myself ngl? https://t.co/s9FLfTWHGd
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说瑞典媒体可能终于发现股权已转向美国机构
我在想，瑞典媒体是不是终于意识到他们都干了什么，于是停止发帖了？ $SIVE 是我见过最有吸引力的 CPO 多头，尤其是在 laser chokepoint 这块。 https://t.co/f1zGx9Bli1
英文原文
I wonder if Swedish media realized what they’ve done transferring control over to American investors/institutions and stopped posting? $SIVE is the most compelling CPO long I’ve seen, especially for the laser chokepoint. https://t.co/f1zGx9Bli1
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认为市场整体是正和博弈，没必要藏信息
谢谢！如果你不碰期权，市场总体上就是正和的，没必要把信息 gatekeep 起来。 感觉散户长期以来都被机构收割得挺惨，而 X 是比看那些低得离谱、-60% 的 PT 更适合散户消化新观点的平台。
英文原文
Thanks! Markets are generally positive sum if you're not touching options, no reason to gatekeep any information. Feels like retail investors have been kinda shafted quite a long time by institutions and X is the perfect platform for retail to digest new opinions than reading lowball -60% PTs while institutions secretly buy.
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回顾韩国存储链被做空后大涨
就在两个月前。 X 上几乎所有人都看空 $EWY、$MU、SK Hynix、Samsung，说韩国市场 / Memory 像“白银泡沫”。 还说 LNG / Helium / Oil 的担忧会把市场打下去。 现在突然那些之前发 doompost 的人都说自己“早就看多”了。 区别在于：你只是跟着新闻流跑，还是你真的把钱押上去，并且在大家都看空时站对了反向观点。 总之，$EWY 的多头现在已经涨了 350%+，这也说明现在噪音有多大。
英文原文
Just two months ago. Everyone on X was bearish on $EWY, $MU, Sk Hynix, Samsung, saying Korean markets / Memory was like the "Silver Bubble". And that LNG/Helium/Oil fears would tank markets. Now suddenly everyone that was doomposting was "bullish" all along. There's a difference between just tagging along the news flow. Then having money at stake and having the correct contrarian opinion while everyone was bearish. Anyway, $EWY longs are now up 350%+, just goes to show how much noise there is nowadays.
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承诺稍后补做 Nextronics 的更深入尽调
@Xecvvv 当然，我稍后会再做一篇关于 Nextronics 的更深度尽调。 我现在只是先抛出一个跟着 GS 供应商名单走的初始想法。 大家还是应该自己研究，我只是想先点出一个可以自己去看的有趣名字。
英文原文
@Xecvvv Of course, I’ll do a follow up on with more DD on Nextronics in a bit. Just throwing out the initial idea tagging along GS suppliers. People should do their own research, just wanted to spotlight an interesting name people can look at on their own.
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介绍 Nextronics 及其在 Nvidia CPO 供应链里的位置
我只是把 Goldman Sachs 的 $NVDA 供应商报告放出来。 有一家很有意思、约 2.1 亿美元市值的公司 Nextronics（8147），我跟着 GS 之后也建了仓。 它向 Nvidia 的 CPO 供应链提供 CPO connectors 和 Cage Thermal Modules。 它们也在 $AMZN 的供应链和 humanoids 里，顺带还做按摩椅。 我只是想分享一个有意思的想法（NFA / DYOR），我之后会做 BOM 分析，但在 Nvidia CPO 项目放量时，这相对市值看起来很有意义。 当然也有多供应商 / 被设计出局的风险，但 GS 多次把这家微型供应商列在 40 亿到 100 亿美元以上公司名单里，可能是有原因的。
英文原文
Just putting it out there with the Goldman Sachs $NVDA supplier note. There’s a very interesting ~$210m MC company Nextronics (8147) that I ended up taking positions on following GS. That supplies CPO connectors and Cage Thermal Modules to Nvidia CPO supply chains. They’re also in $AMZN supply chains and Humanoids. And massage chairs too. Just thought I’d share an interesting idea (NFA/DYOR), I’ll do a BOM analysis later, but it looks very material relative to MC as Nvidia’s CPO program scales up. Of course risks are multi-sourcing/getting designed out, but there’s probably a reason why GS flagged this micro supplier multiple times among $4-10B+ companies.
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投资过早易被套，应等技术量產前夕再入场
有前景...但说到实际盈利：玻璃/硅光子学是2026-2029年下半年的即期事件。东曹(Tosoh)提到的塑料光学器件和电缆，时间线看起来要到2029年以后才准确。最好是等到即将进入量產爬坡阶段再进场，就像$SIVE或$AEHR那样。感觉总体而言，过早做多量子点、microLED和塑料光学器件...下次回调时可能会停滞一年。关键在于你要找到时间表大幅提前的迹象（CPO就提前了），那才是alpha。但塑料光缆这事最好留到一年半以后，比如2028年上半年再说。
英文原文
Promising… but for actually making returns: Things like Glass/Silicon Photonics is an immediate H2 2026-2029 event. 2029+ timeline seems accurate for plastic optics and cables cited by Tosoh. Better to wait until it’s about to hit volume ramp as seen with $SIVE or $AEHR. Feel like in general, going long on quantum dot, microled, and plastic way too early on… might just end up stalling out for a year in the next correction? The nuance is you find any indicators timelines have been pushed up a lot (CPO got pushed up), then that’s alpha. But it’s something to save for a year and a half later like H1 2028 for plastic optical cables.
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发现一个做按摩椅和人形机器人副业的 Nvidia CPO 供应商
今天才知道，居然有一家 $NVDA 的 CPO 供应商，副业还做按摩椅和美国人形机器人。 Toto 马桶和 HBM 的梗到处都在冒出来。
英文原文
Today I learned there’s a $NVDA CPO supplier that builds massage chairs and US Humanoids on the side. The Toto toilet HBM meme keeps showing up everywhere.
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感叹 X 和 Reddit 上有人靠半导体赚了大钱
是不是只有我觉得…… X 上或者 $RDDT 上的人，最近是不是都靠 $INTC、$MU 和 $AMD 赚了大钱？ https://t.co/CWEt5rcusn
英文原文
Is it just me… Or does it feel like everyone on X or $RDDT made millions off of $INTC, $MU, and $AMD recently? https://t.co/CWEt5rcusn
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列出被点名的玻璃基板龙头链条
如果你感兴趣，这里是被点名的“领先”玻璃基板玩家： • $LPK —— TGV Equipment • $GLW —— 玻璃材料 • $ASGLY（5201 T）—— 玻璃材料 • $NIDGY（5214 T）—— 玻璃材料 • $LRCX —— 刻蚀设备 • $DSCSY（6146 T）—— 切割设备 • $SMHSF —— 键合系统 • $ONTO —— 检测工具 • $KLAC —— 检测工具 很有意思，像我年初就提到过的 LPK，当时市值只有大约 1.5 亿美元，如今却被 Trendforce 等机构点名成了关键玩家。
英文原文
“Leading” Glass Substrate players that were name dropped if you’re curious: • $LPK — TGV Equipment • $GLW — Glass Materials • $ASGLY (5201 T)— Glass Materials • $NIDGY (5214 T) — Glass Materials • $LRCX — Etching Systems • $DSCSY (6146 T)— Dicing Equipment • $SMHSF — Bonding Systems • $ONTO — Inspection Tools • $KLAC — Inspection Tools Fun to see the stuff I’ve called out early in the year like LPK at ~$150m MC get mentioned as a critical player by Trendforce and others.
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AXTI 和 GOOGL 两个判断让自己在 X 上出名
@pepemoonboy 谢谢，我其实挺为这个感到骄傲。$AXTI 让我在 X 上出名。 我在 $GOOGL 150 美元时的判断，让我先在 $RDDT 上出了名，后来它又涨到了 400。 希望以后能有一篇关于青蛙的。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy Thanks, im proud of this one. $AXTI made me famous on X. My $GOOGL call at $150 made me famous on $RDDT before that just went up to $400. Hope to see one about a frog next
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回看自己对 InP 瓶颈时间点的判断
@Deebeeng10 太好了！我自己都不敢相信，我竟然把 InP substrate 何时会卡瓶颈的中期 2026 时间点都猜中了，哈哈。
英文原文
@Deebeeng10 Glad to hear! I can’t believe I even guess the mid 2026 timelines on when InP substrates would be bottlenecked lol
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坚持做多 AXTI 即便它会拖累光学链条
@deron0903 当然想过这个问题。但如果 $AXTI 下跌，和 $LITE 以及其他公司的光学扩产也会一起受影响。 所以我才觉得做多它是值得的。
英文原文
@deron0903 Of course I did. But if $AXTI goes down, the optical buildout with $LITE and others goes down too. Which is why I thought it was worth it to go long anyway.
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回顾 AXTI 上涨 10 倍后的个人收益
@Abolct 我在一些 $AXTI 仓位上已经赚了大约 1766%，但在它涨 10 倍之后我就被封号了。 https://t.co/yrU1RmzNv7
英文原文
@Abolct I’m up like 1766% on some $AXTI positions but I got banned after it went up 10x https://t.co/yrU1RmzNv7
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再次验证 AXTI 的 InP substrate 瓶颈判断
还记得我去年对 $AXTI 的 InP substrate 瓶颈判断吗，anon？ IntelliEPI CEO（2026Q1 财报）： “Indium phosphide substrate shortage is a bottleneck for the entire AI infrastructure.” Digitimes：Taiwan’s IntelliEPI warns of severe indium phosphide supply shortage 我当时就说，随着 photonics 放量，下一代 AI 架构全面转向光学后，InP 会出现重大瓶颈。 这是我关于 AXT 这个上游 chokepoint 最准确的一次判断。 我通常会比市场早几个月，但方向上经常会兑现。 当我已经在这些瓶颈里赚了 1800%+ 的时候，我现在又在做多 CPO，押下一个大超级周期。
英文原文
Did you remember my $AXTI InP substrate bottleneck call last year anon? IntelliEPI CEO (Q1 2026 ER): "The InP substrate shortage is a bottleneck for the entire AI infrastructure" Digitimes: "Taiwan's IntelliEPI warns of severe indium phosphide supply shortage" I said as photonics ramps: There was going to be a major InP bottleneck as all the next-gen AI architectures go optical. This was most goated call with AXT as the upstream chokepoint. I'm usually a few months ahead of time, but they play out directionally. While I'm sitting in existing bottlenecks up 1800%+, I'm long CPO as the next major supercycle.
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强调 SIVE 的真正增长来自光子业务
@bexilon99 你看到的是一个前期开发合同，但那只是他们另一个业务段。 他们真正的增长都来自 photonics。 $SIVE 是我见过最有吸引力的 CPO 敞口多头。
英文原文
@bexilon99 You're looking at a pre-production dev contract with their other segment. Their entire growth comes from photonics. $SIVE is the most compelling CPO exposure long I've seen.