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  1. 方法论 $IBKR

    说明很多持仓是 IBKR 代表的综合账户

    @kxshxl 很多都是 omnibus 账户,代表像 $IBKR 这种散户 / 机构混合资金池持有。 从一些名字你也能看出来,里面更偏散户。 但像 Goldman Sachs 这种就是机构。

    英文原文

    @kxshxl A lot of them are omnibus and held on behalf of pools of retail/institution like $IBKR. You can kinda guess from some of them that it skews toward retail. But names like Goldman Sachs are institutional.

  2. 供应链分析 $SIVE

    认为瑞典媒体终于看懂 SIVE 的股权转移

    是啊,我在想,瑞典媒体是不是终于意识到自己干了什么,才去看 $SIVE 的 cap table? 现在瑞典投资者持有的已经远少于美国机构 / 投资者,而我们正站在下一个超级周期的起点。 本地持股还剩几个百分点,所以希望他们继续发负面文章。

    英文原文

    Yep I wonder if the Swedish media finally realized what they accomplished once they looked at the $SIVE cap table? Now Swedish investors barely hold anything compared to US institutions/investors and we're at the beginning of the next supercycle. There's still a few % to go for local ownership, so hope they keep posting negative articles.

  3. 供应链分析 $IBKR$SIVE

    分析$SIVE股东结构从瑞典散户→美国散户→美国机构的演变过程。

    美国/西方现在控制了$SIVE的大部分股份。随着高盛、摩根大通、摩根士丹利及其他美国机构进入。美国/西方46.8%:- 富达:11.5%(散户)- 嘉信理财:11.4%(散户)- $IBKR:9.3%(主要是散户)- 纽约梅隆银行:4.2%(散户)- 摩根士丹利史宾沙:3.1%(散户/财富管理)- 美国银行:2.8%(散户/财富管理)- 纽约梅隆银行:0.9%(机构)- 摩根士丹利客户资产:0.7%(机构)- 纽约银行:0.5%(机构)- 摩根大通:0.5%(机构)- 摩根大通证券有限公司:0.4%(机构)- 花旗银行纽约:0.3%(机构)- 摩根大通SE:0.2%(机构)- 摩根士丹利:0.2%(机构)- 摩根大通证券:0.2%(机构)- 美银证券:0.2%(机构)- 高盛:0.2%(机构)- 高盛国际:0.1%(机构)- Cbny-Rja-客户资产:0.1%(散户/财富管理)现在很大比例由美国散户股东持有(例如$IBKR代表客户,可能大部分是散户,部分是机构)。新增但规模较小的摩根大通、高盛和花旗银行持仓可能是对冲基金或其他试图建仓的机构。欧洲及瑞士:11.3%- Clearstream:6.2%- 瑞银瑞士:1.6%- Six SIS:0.8%- 欧洲清算银行:0.8%- 盛宝银行:0.6%- 法国巴黎银行:0.6%- Caceis银行/联合圣保罗银行:各0.2%- KBC/LGT/宝盛:各0.1%瑞典约8.49%:- Avanza养老金保险公司-4.76%- Nordnet养老金保险-2.73%- 北欧斯安银行-0.2%- SEB人寿国际-0.1%- 北欧银行-0.7%加拿大/英国/中东约0.6%:- 以色列第一国际银行-0.3%- 加拿大皇家银行-0.1%- 加拿大皇家银行-0.1%- 汇丰-0.1%特别感谢瑞典媒体替美国机构做了这些工作:西方现在拥有约58.7%的所有权。由于当地媒体,瑞典持股比例已降至8.49%。我想知道他们是否意识到自己做了什么——在吓跑当地投资者后,现在股权已转移到美国机构/投资者手中?西方现在在共封装光学(CPO)超级周期之前获得了大部分流通股。你也可以开始看到摩根大通或高盛等美国机构建立初始仓位(代表机构投资者),可能是在美国散户获利了结之后。这可能是在$SIVE达到某个市值门槛以满足基金授权要求之后。但很大比例仍由美国散户持有,通过$IBKR和富达等平台。(这就是我所说的抢先机构一步)摘要:$SIVE从主要:-> 瑞典散户所有权-> 美国散户所有权-> 随着美国散户获利或卖出,逐步转变为美国机构所有权(如果他们找到方法吓跑美国散户,就像瑞典媒体做的那样)。

    英文原文

    The US/West now controls majority of the shares of $SIVE. With Goldman Sachs/JP Morgan/Morgan Stanley and other US institutions entering. US/West 46.8%: - Fidelity: 11.5% (retail) - Charles Schawb: 11.4% (retail) - $IBKR: 9.3% (primarily retail) - BNY Mellon: 4.2% (retail) - Morgan Stanley Smith Barney: 3.1% (Retail/Wealth management) -Bank of America: 2.8% (retail/Wealth management) - BNY Mellon: .9% (institutional) - Morgan Stanley Client Assets: .7% (institutional) - Bank of New York Mellon: .5% (institution) - JP Morgan: .5% (institutional) - J.P. Morgan Securities Plc: .4% (institutional) - Citibank New York: .3% (institutional) - JP Morgan SE: .2% (institutional) - Morgan Stanley: .2% (institutional) - JP Morgan Securities: .2% (institutional) - BoFA Securities: .2% (institutional) - Goldman Sachs: .2% (institutional) - Goldman Sachs International: .1% (institutional) - Cbny-Rja-Client Asset - .1% (retail/wealth) Large % now owned US retail shareholders (eg. $IBKR on behalf of clients, probably majority retail some institutions). The new but smaller JP Morgan Goldman Sachs, and Citibank % positions are likely hedge funds or other institutions trying to build positions. Europe & Switzerland: 11.3% - Clearstream: 6.2% - UBS Switzerland: 1.6% - Six SIS: 0.8% - Euroclear Bank: 0.8% - Saxo Bank: 0.6% - BNP Paribas: 0.6% - Caceis Bank / Intesa San Paolo: 0.2% each - KBC / LGT / Julius Baer: 0.1% each Swedish ~8.49%: Försäkringsaktiebolaget Avanza Pension - 4.76% Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring - 2.73% Skandinaviska Enskilda - .2% SEB Life International - .1% Nordea Bank Abp - 0.7% Canada/UK/Middle East ~.6%: First Intl Bank of Israel - .3% Royal Bank of Canada - .1% Royal Bank of Canada - .1% HSBC - .1% A special thank you to the Swedish Media doing the work of US institutions: The West now has ~58.7% ownership. Swedish is now down to 8.49% due to local media. I wonder if they realized what they've done now scaring off local investors now that it's changed hands to US institutions/investors? The West have now acquired majority of the float before the CPO supercycle. You can also start to see US institutions like JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs building start positions (on behalf of institutional investors), probably off of US retail taking profits. This is likely after $SIVE reached a certain MC threshold for fund mandates. But a large % of it is still owned by US retail on places like $IBKR and Fidelity. (this is what I call frontrunning the institutions) TLDR: $SIVE went from majority: -> Swedish retail ownership -> US retail ownership -> gradual US Institution ownership as US retail takes profit or sells (if they figure out a way to scare off US retail like the Swedish media did).

  4. 杂谈

    只用 X,不靠 AI 改写自己的帖子

    @investguru25 不,我只用 X。 现在很多人都会冒充我,或者直接拿 AI 把我的帖子重写成自己的。

    英文原文

    @investguru25 No, I only use X. A lot of people try and impersonate me or just use AI to just re-write my posts as their own nowadays.

  5. 供应链分析 $3324$3017$8996$2308$VRT$NVDA

    再排查 NVDA 架构变化下的台湾标的

    @Leo66Gao 对,TWSE: 3324、TWSE: 3017、TWSE: 8996、TWSE: 2308、$VRT 这些都是我标出来的。 但我今天还想多做些尽调,以防 $NVDA 的架构变化会把其中一两个名字设计出去。

    英文原文

    @Leo66Gao Yeah TWSE: 3324, TWSE: 3017, TWSE: 8996, TWSE: 2308, $VRT, and others were the ones I flagged. But I wanted to do more DD today, just in case the $NVDA architecture changes might have designed or two out.

  6. 总结近期半导体与 AI 供应链的多项变化

    这是我对最近半导体发展的一个 TLDR: 1. $TSM 在强推 CoPoS - VisEra / 其他公司可能会比预期更早起飞。 2. $AAPL 选择 $INTC 做半导体生产,这是个重大变化,因为他们通常会选 TSM。美国制造继续起飞,Intel 继续起飞。 3. $NVDA Vera Rubin 最近据说对散热架构做了很新的调整。 “台湾的热管理供应商正在成为 AI 硬件生态里增长最快的板块之一” - 上个月的说法。 “Vera Rubin server 架构预计会推动数据中心散热和系统设计发生根本变化” 我之后会专门看热管理生态,也许该开始研究一下? 4. 2D NAND 短缺在 Samsung、Micron 和其他玩家退出后继续恶化。 Macronix、Windbond 都在起飞,这对 GigaDevice 和其他利基玩家也有影响。 5. “大科技公司据称愿意出资帮助 SK Hynix 建 fab 和 EUV” 说明 memory 短缺严重到 Mag7 都愿意出钱,那 $MU、SK Hynix、Samsung 都在起飞。 6. $TSM 2026 年 4 月净营收 126 亿美元,收入同比增长 30%,半导体继续起飞。 7. Anthropic 需要算力 -> SpaceX。 这意味着算力需求极其强,对 $NBIS 等都是“BRRR”级别利好。 但很有意思的是,他们绕开了 Neoclouds,选了 SpaceX。 8. “SKC 将在今年年底前加速为美国客户量产玻璃基板” “提前于原计划,已宣布今年年底前推进” 像 $LPK 这样的玻璃基板量产玩家,以及 SKC 这类相关公司都在起飞。 玻璃时间线被提前了,真的 heavy brrr glass。 9. AI 服务器需求和 GaN 争夺加剧,电源芯片短缺也在加深。 也许是时候看看电源芯片瓶颈了? 10. Adata 说 DRAM 和 NAND 闪存合约价在 2026 年第二季度都会上涨 40% 以上。 这对 $MU、SK Hynix、Samsung、$SNDK 等都是正面。

    英文原文

    Just a TLDR of recent semi developments: 1. $TSM pushing hard CoPoS - VisEra/others might go brrr earlier than expected. 2. $AAPL goes with $INTC for semi production, which is a major shift cause they normally go with TSM. Made in America go like Intel go brrr. 3. $NVDA Vera Rubin reportedly makes changes to cooling architectures very recently. "Taiwan's thermal management suppliers are emerging as one of the fastest-growing segments in the AI hardware ecosystem" - From Last Month. "Vera Rubin server architecture is expected to drive a fundamental shift in data center cooling and system design" Will cover thermal ecosystem later, maybe it's time to take a look? 4. 2D NAND shortage spirals after Samsung, Micron, and rivals exit market Macronix, Windbond go brrr. implications for GigaDevice and other niche players. 5. "Big Tech reportedly offers to fund SK Hynix fabs and EUV" - Memory that badly bottlenecked that mag7 wants to pay for it, so $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung go brr. 6. $TSM 2026 net revenue $12.6B for April 2026. Revenue up 30%, Semis keep going brr. 7. Anthropic needs compute -> SpaceX. So implications for compute demand is extreme here which is BRRR $NBIS and others. But it's very interesting they sidestepped Neoclouds and went with SpaceX. 8. "SKC to Accelerate Mass Production of Glass Substrates for U.S. Clients by the End of the Year" "the end of the year, ahead of its original plan, it has been announced" Glass Core substrates players like $LPK for mass production and other related players like SKC go brrr. Glass timelines moved up. heavy brrr glass. 9. "Power chip shortages deepen as AI server demand and GaN battles escalate" Maybe time to look into the power chip bottleneck anon? 10. "Adata said DRAM and NAND flash contract prices will each climb more than 40% in the second quarter of 2026" Another positive for $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung, $SNDK, and others.

  7. 业绩复盘 $FISV$PYPL$NVO$INTC$SNDK

    感叹价值股投资者都被这轮周期淘汰了

    我感觉这轮周期里,所有做 $FISV、$PYPL、$NVO 这类价值 / 股息投资的人都“灭绝”了? 去年还很流行…… 但如果你转去做 $INTC 或 $SNDK 这类半导体,年内其实已经能赚 200-400%+。 X 上现在全是 AI 瓶颈话题,感觉这波趋势还是我带起来的? https://t.co/tj7ykBGMyr

    英文原文

    I feel like all the $FISV, $PYPL, $NVO value/dividend investors went extinct this cycle? Was very popular, even last year… But if you pivoted to semis like $INTC or $SNDK, you would be up 200-400%+ YTD. X feed is just AI bottlenecks now, feel like I helped start a new trend? https://t.co/tj7ykBGMyr

  8. 业绩复盘 $AXTI

    认为 AXTI 的上涨已主要由机构推动

    @Berlinergy 现在他们还以为都是我一个人在推动……但考虑到 $AXTI 的市值已经 60 亿美元以上,行情主要还是机构在参与。 https://t.co/EajF4uIfNp

    英文原文

    @Berlinergy Even now they think it’s all me… movement is largely institutions at this point given $AXTI MC size is $6B+ https://t.co/EajF4uIfNp

  9. 杂谈 $IREN

    拿 IREN 投资者开玩笑

    @UpsideExit 你们想帮他们也没用,毕竟他们的 IQ 跟 $IREN 投资者差不多。 https://t.co/DX576R4KNz

    英文原文

    @UpsideExit You try to help them but it’s hard to when they have about the same IQ as $IREN investors https://t.co/DX576R4KNz

  10. 杂谈 $AXTI

    调侃“光子专家”对 AXTI 的评论

    @meteoralp92 等你听听这位“photonics expert”对 $AXTI 的评论。 https://t.co/hWEO50KnLO

    英文原文

    @meteoralp92 Wait until you hear see this “photonics expert” commentary about $AXTI https://t.co/hWEO50KnLO

  11. 业绩复盘 $AXTI

    回看当初看多 AXTI 时几乎全网唱反调

    我就把这条关于 $AXTI 的内容留在这里。 当我在大约 13 美元发帖时,100% 的评论都是负面的。 而我后来在它涨了 10 倍之后也被封了。 https://t.co/6FrSXod6s8

    英文原文

    I’m just going to leave this here with $AXTI. 100% of the comments were negative when I posted at ~$13. And I got banned later after it went up 10 times. https://t.co/6FrSXod6s8

  12. 个股论点 $AAOI$AMZN$COHR$INTC$LITE$MSFT

    AAOI被比作光学版Intel,借超大规模需求东风,2027年收入预测显示严重低估。

    我之前在 $AAOI 市值 $6.49B 时就说过同样的话。 现在市值 $11.5B,故事还是一样的: 基本上这就是光学(Optics)版的 $INTC,他们正在将产能从激光晶圆制造扩展到美国本土组装。 他们生产的任何东西都可能被超大规模云厂商(Hyperscalers)收购。 如果看 2027 年中期预测的 $1.41B 季度收入增长($471 x 3)与当前市值的对比,当前的财务数据其实不太重要。 以及高盛预测的 9 倍 TAM 增长曲线。

    英文原文

    I’ve said this before when $AAOI was $6.49B. Now it’s $11.5B and this is the same story: Basically this is the Optical version of $INTC, where they’re scaling capacity from laser fab to assembly Made in America. Anything they make is likely to be bought out by hyperscalers. Current financials don’t really mater if you look at $1.41B quarterly revenue ramp by mid 2027 projections ($471 x 3) vs current MC. And the overarching 9x TAM curve from GS projections.

  13. 杂谈 $SNDK$IREN

    澄清自己是在拿 SNDK 开玩笑,IREN 才是真 meme

    @EhrmantrautCap_ 我是在拿 $SNDK 开玩笑。 $IREN 才是真正的 meme stock。

    英文原文

    @EhrmantrautCap_ I was talking about $SNDK as a joke. $IREN is a true meme stock.

  14. 个股论点 $SIVE

    认为 SIVE 只是正常回调,股权在转向美国投资者

    没什么,只是轻微回调。我对 $SIVE 后续还是很有信心。 这只是 CPO 超级周期前,股份从瑞典人手里标准地转给美国投资者。大概还有 7% 左右还在瑞典本地。 这种回调通常会带来更高的高点,并形成更强的股东基础。

    英文原文

    Nothing, just a slight correction. I have high conviction in $SIVE moving forward. It’s just a standard transfer of shares to US investors before the CPO supercycle, think Swedish retail have ~7% or so left. Corrections like this tend to lead to higher highs with a stronger shareholder base.

  15. 方法论 $SNDK$HPS.A$LITE

    认为多年份瓶颈比炒作型故事更强

    我现在已经没人能说服我 $SNDK 不是一只 meme stock。 但正如我之前说的,像 $HPS.A 或 $LITE 这种有多年可见度的瓶颈型名字,通常表现会更好。 https://t.co/WkjoG1jIYu

    英文原文

    Nobody can convince me $SNDK isn’t a meme stock at this point. But as I’ve said, bottlenecks with multi-year visibility like $HPS.A or $LITE tend to perform better. https://t.co/WkjoG1jIYu

  16. 个股论点 $RDDT

    仍然看好 RDDT 这类非 AI 名字

    我仍然觉得 $RDDT 是少数几个非 AI 名字里非常有吸引力的一个。 单看它们增长有多快,以及财报后的真实盈利能力。 老实说我还是不明白它为什么跑输大盘…… https://t.co/C9T3qbc8vZ

    英文原文

    I still think $RDDT is one of the few non-AI names that is extremely compelling. Just by how fast they’re growing + true profitability post-earnings. Honestly still not sure why they’re underperforming the market… https://t.co/C9T3qbc8vZ

  17. 个股论点 $FLNC

    FLNC 因双 hyperscaler 合同而重估

    而且……$FLNC 现在已经涨了 50% 以上。 我本来就觉得它被低估了,而再加上两个 hyperscaler 合同,简直是锦上添花。 很期待市场会把这家能源公司重估到什么程度。 https://t.co/3RB2u9tBvq

    英文原文

    And… $FLNC is up over 50% now. I did think it was undervalued as is, but it was a massive cherry on top throwing in 2 hyperscaler deals. Exciting to see how much markets re-rate this energy company. https://t.co/3RB2u9tBvq

  18. 个股论点 $SOI

    Nomura 给 SOI 250 欧元目标价的反向验证

    哈哈。Nomura 刚开始覆盖 $SOI,就给了 250 欧元目标价。 当我在大约 43 欧元做多时,第一次涨 25% 之后,机构还说不要买,说没有新东西。 现在两个月后,他们给出的目标价已经是我 thesis 发帖价的 6 倍多了。 https://t.co/qrEM43fXv2

    英文原文

    LOL. Nomura initiates $SOI coverage and gives it a EUR 250 PT. Back when I went long at ~€43, after the first +25% institutions were saying not to buy and that there’s nothing new. Now 2 months later they’re giving price targets ~6X+ my thesis post. https://t.co/qrEM43fXv2

  19. 个股论点 $FLNC

    盘前因双 hyperscaler 合同大涨

    现在还是盘前…… 但因为 $FLNC 拿下了两个直接 hyperscaler 合同,已经涨了 18.66%。 尤其是在这么小的市值下,这类合同通常会带来巨大的重估。 https://t.co/fVroq5VrN4

    英文原文

    It’s still premarket… But +18.66% off $FLNC having 2 direct hyperscaler contracts coming up. Especially at this tiny MC, having these types of contracts typically leads to massive re-rating. https://t.co/fVroq5VrN4

  20. 供应链分析 $MTSI$LITE

    列出一串相关光学链条公司

    @milesgillhespy Sumitomo Electric、Furukawa Electric、Mitsubishi Electric、$MTSI、$LITE

    英文原文

    @milesgillhespy Sumitomo Electric, Furukawa Electric, Mitsubishi Electric, $MTSI, and $LITE

  21. 杂谈

    用一句口号式回复表达美国感

    @ashmyro 美国。🇺🇸

    英文原文

    @ashmyro Murica 🇺🇸

  22. 供应链分析 $SIVE

    预计美国上市后股权会从散户转向机构

    @Philippe45164 我真觉得这会在美国上市后发生。 然后股份会从美国散户转向美国机构。

    英文原文

    @Philippe45164 I'm expecting that to happen after US listing tbh. Then shares go from US retail -> US institutions.

  23. 个股论点 $ARM$SIVE

    回复网友关于SIVE如何通过ADR转换在美国市场交易的问题

    @xuefeng_huang 如果$SIVE走ADR(美国存托凭证)路线,你可以从瑞典进行ADR转换,它就会开始在美国市场上交易,类似$ARM。

    英文原文

    @xuefeng_huang If $SIVE goes the ADR route you can do an ADR conversion from Sweden to US and it will just start trading on US markets like $ARM.

  24. 杂谈

    开玩笑说瑞典人还剩 7.49%

    @SidkMena 瑞典人还剩 7.49%,离清零还有一段。

    英文原文

    @SidkMena The Swedish still have another 7.49% before they go to 0.

  25. 个股论点 $BOA$FNF$IBKR$SCHW$SIVE

    分析$SIVE股东结构剧变,瑞典资本撤离而美国资本接盘,控制权即将完成转移。

    我之前说什么来着?$SIVE 正在经历所有权从瑞典向美国转移的过程…… 如果我正确解读了新的大股东名册(cap table): 美国/西方现在持有 $SIVE 42.18% 的股份: ~$FNF(富达)- 11.5%(美国/西方) ~$SCHW(嘉信)- 11.4%(美国/西方) ~$IBKR - 9.25%(美国/国际) ~ 佩兴集团(纽约梅隆)- 4.15%(美国/西方) ~ 摩根士丹利 - 3.12% ~ 美林证券($BOA)- 2.76% 欧洲:约 7.73%: 明讯银行(Clearstream Banking)- 6.16%(欧洲) 瑞士银行 - 1.57%(瑞典/欧盟) 而瑞典人现在只持有 $SIVE 约 7.49% 的股份: Avanza Pension 保险公司 - 4.76% Nordnet 人寿保险公司 - 2.73% 此前,Sivers 是一家约 60% 欧洲/瑞典散户持股的公司…… 从那以后一路下跌,接近于零,因为他们在不断抛售股份。 美国人即将获得接近绝对多数的控制权,恰在 2027 年 CPO(共封装光学)超级周期之前。 转让似乎快完成了?

    英文原文

    What did I say? $SIVE was undergoing a transfer of Swedish ownership over to the US... If I'm interpreting things right from the new cap table. The US / West now owns 42.18% of $SIVE: ~ $FNF (Fidelity) - 11.5% (US/West) ~ $SCHW (Schwab) - 11.4% (US/West) ~ $IBKR - 9.25% (US/International) ~ Pershing (BNY Melon) - 4.15% (US/West) ~ Morgan Stanley - 3.12% ~Merrill Lynch ( $BOA ) - 2.76% Europe: ~7.73%: Clearstream Banking - 6.16% (European) UBS Switzerland AG - 1.57% (Swedish/EU) While Swedish now hold ~7.49% of $SIVE: Försäkringsaktiebolaget Avanza Pension - 4.76% Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring AB - 2.73 Before, Sivers was a ~60% European/Swedish retail owned company... They went from that, down closer to 0 as they keep selling their shares. US has close to majority control, right before the CPO supercycle of 2027. Transfer seems almost complete?

  26. 方法论 $AXTI$SOI$IQE

    观察到机构总在 thesis 后几周才跟进

    我注意到,通常在我发 thesis 后 4 到 6 周…… 就会有一批机构开始买像 $AXTI、$SOI 或 $IQE 这样的名字。 我不确定这是纯粹巧合,还是他们在看我的帖子,然后需要一些时间做尽调? https://t.co/jwCXyl9mb6

    英文原文

    I've noticed that it's always like 4-6 weeks after my thesis post... That a bunch of institution start buying up names like $AXTI, $SOI, or $IQE. I'm not sure if it's just luck with timing. Or if they're reading my posts and need time for DD? https://t.co/jwCXyl9mb6

  27. 供应链分析 $SIVE

    解释 CPO 前置布局下短期波动和做空比例

    @TFillkcs80260 对,如果你在提前押 CPO 周期,波动会很大,因为收入还没真正进入报表。 我估计这一周又有大约 3% 的流通股被做空,所以现在可能在 9% 到 10% 左右。

    英文原文

    @TFillkcs80260 Yeah there's probably going to be a lot of volatility if you're frontrunning the CPO cycle since revenue hasn't hit the balance sheet yet. Think another ~3% of the float has been shorted this week so should be around 9-10% around now i think.

  28. 方法论

    认为算法只看营收和新闻情绪

    @DanilSer33 这是算法化的,因为它们看不懂很多 hyperscaler 映射。 它们大概只会看 TTM 营收和新闻里的情绪分析。

    英文原文

    @DanilSer33 It's algorithmic since they're blind to a lot of the hyperscaler mapping. And probably only see TTM revenue and sentiment analysis off news.

  29. 供应链分析 $MSSCorp$Auros

    说明 CPO 的真正放量在 2027 年,Auros 还在认证中

    MSSCorp 也是一个 CPO 标的……CPO 真正开始放量是在 2027 年。 2026 上半年并不会有太多量,所以在那之前大概率会有波动。但我觉得,提前等在这里去抢下一个巨大超级周期的起点,还是很有吸引力的。 至于 Auros,他们给 SK Hynix / Samsung 供货,产品还在认证中。我的 thesis 主要还是等到 H2 某个时候的量产爬坡。

    英文原文

    MSSCorp is a CPO names... CPO really starts to ramp up in 2027. You don't really have any volume H1 2026, so there's probably going to be volatility up until then. But I think the time wait is compelling enough to frontrun one of the largest supercycles at the very start. As for Auros, they supply to Sk Hynix/Samsung and are qualifying their products. My thesis was mainly about waiting for volume ramp sometime to hit H2.

  30. 方法论 $SIVE$JBL

    估计 CPO scale up 在 2027 下半年

    大概 H2 2027 才是 CPO scale up,那是最大的市场机会。 市场通常会提前 8 到 12 个月开始定价。 CPO scale out 会在今年下半年开始。1.6T pluggable bridge 大概在 2027 上半年到下半年之间发生($SIVE 和 $JBL 有一个相关链条)。 所以在 2027 年后半段的大超级周期之前,会先有逐步的量产爬坡。

    英文原文

    Probably H2 2027 for scale up CPO, which is the biggest market opportunity. Markets usually start pricing things in 8-12 months in advance. CPO scale out is H2 this year. 1.6T pluggable bridge happens around H1-H2 2027 (Sivers has one with $JBL) So there's incremental volume ramp leading to the major supercycle later part of 2027.