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猜测时间点是八九月
@Plutonite 我猜大概是八月 / 九月。
英文原文
@Plutonite Maybe August/September is my guess.
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SIVE激光器供应商客户覆盖多家AI/硅光子明星企业，估值对应的超大规模客户量惊人
$SIVE 向以下公司供应激光器：可能是 $JBL、Ayar、Lightmatter、$POET、$MRVL Celestial、Lightelligence、$AMD、O-Net/Enablence 以及其他公司。 这还不包括他们与 $AAPL 或 $AEVA 的硅光子(silicon photonics)项目，或者他们其他与CHIPS法案相关的工作。 以这个估值来看，他们所服务的超大规模企业(hyperscaler)数量相当惊人。
英文原文
$SIVE supplies lasers to likely $JBL, Ayar, Lightmatter, $POET, $MRVL Celestial, Lightelligence, $AMD, O-Net/Enablence, and others. Not including silicon photonics programs with $AAPL or $AEVA or their other CHIPS act related work. The amount of hyperscaler they feed into is pretty crazy at that valuation.
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解释为什么 SIVE 总被瑞典媒体打压，但浮筹仍在转移
SIVE 每天都在重复上演这种剧情，已经像 deja vu 了，哈哈。 这也说明为什么 Sivers 很快会在纳斯达克上市，而不是继续留在本地市场。 每天开盘本地媒体都会来一篇攻击这家前沿公司的文章，然后股价跌 10%： -> “CPO 和 CW lasers 没什么新东西” -> “Sivers 要去跟资金雄厚的 $LITE 和 $COHR 竞争，肯定会因为资本劣势输掉” -> “为了上纳斯达克不得不稀释 2.5%” -> “年报延迟很可疑”（其实是为了上纳斯达克） -> $SIVE 体量不够，无法放大和 $JBL 的关系并扩张。 最后本地瑞典人都在卖，西方投资者 / 基金在接手流通股。 在 CPO 量产前就让西方持有这家公司，显然更好。 纯靠瑞典本地去做一家前沿公司，感觉希望很渺茫，因为本地文化就不太行。
英文原文
Every day it's like this on repeat with $SIVE, it's like dejavu lol. Makes sense why Sivers is getting listed on Nasdaq soon instead of staying in local markets. New local hit piece on their own frontier company happens every market open, stock drops 10%: -> "CPO and the CW lasers is nothing new" -> "Sivers is going up against well funded $LITE and $COHR and will lose because of capital" -> "They had to dilute 2.5% to get listed on Nasdaq" -> "Delayed annual report is sketchy" (to get listed on Nasdaq) -> $SIVE is not big enough to capitalize on $JBL relationship and scale. Local Swedish folks end up selling. Western investors/funds end up acquiring the float. Better for the West to own the company before CPO ramp starts. Creating a frontier company purely from Sweden seems hopeless given local culture.
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感叹订阅数接近 Elon，并提到自己关注的冷门想法
太离谱了……我的订阅数已经过半追上 Elon 了。 还差 2.4 万，我就会成为整个 X 平台第一。 想到一个普通人分享像 $LPK 到 $SOI 这种小众 AI 想法…… 居然有机会成为最大平台上最受欢迎的人，还是觉得很不真实。 https://t.co/MsuqG95Y3p
英文原文
Unreal… I’m over halfway there to Elon in subscriber count. 24K more and I’ll be #1 on the entire X platform! Feels surreal that a random person sharing their thoughts about niche AI ideas from $LPK to $SOI …. Has a chance to be the most popular one on the largest platform? https://t.co/MsuqG95Y3p
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对比AAOI和IREN过去6个月股价表现，AAOI大涨451%远超IREN的6%。
@nasdaq90 在过去6个月里，$AAOI上涨了451%，而$IREN表现稳健，上涨了6%。
英文原文
@nasdaq90 $AAOI is up 451% in the past 6 months while $IREN is up a solid 6%.
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解释 IREN 拿到的是无风险品牌授权，不是真投资
@bennybigbull 他们拿到的是**购买 3000 万股的权利**。 $NVDA 根本没有投钱。 他们只是因为允许 IREN 使用他们的品牌、并进一步稀释自己去买 Nvidia GPU，才拿到一个无风险的期权式认购协议。
英文原文
@bennybigbull They have the **right to** buy 30m shares. $NVDA hasn't invested anything. They just got a risk-free option purchase agreement for allowing $IREN to use their branding and dilute more to buy Nvidia GPUs.
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解释 NVDA 对 IREN 的支持并不等于真正投资
$NVDA 什么都没投。他们拿到的是一个完全无风险的购买协议，自己没有承担任何投入。 这和可转债不同；可转债是他们借钱给 $IREN，然后按 70 美元转换。 很多人把融资结构的细节混为一谈，但如果他们真给 $NBIS 投了 20 亿美元，那就完全是另一回事。
英文原文
$NVDA hasn't invested anything. They got a completely risk-free purchase agreement without committing anything. This is different than a convertible note where they would loan $IREN money and to convert it at $70. People conflate all the nuances of financing structures, it's actually material if they put $2B into a company like $NBIS.
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强调 NVDA 只是给了无风险认购文件
@OrkunEC Nvidia 基本上只是给了 $IREN 一个完全无风险的股份购买票据，自己根本没投钱。 这甚至都不是可转债，因为他们没有给 $IREN 任何现金。 他们让 $IREN 用自己的品牌去继续稀释并买 Nvidia GPU，自己却不会承担损失。
英文原文
@OrkunEC Nvidia basically got a completely risk-free share purchase note for $IREN and hasn't invested at all. This wasn't even a convertible note, where they gave $IREN any money. They're not losing anything for letting $IREN use their brand to dilute more and buy Nvidia GPUs.
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认为 IREN 的主牛点只是软件收购，但仍不想接稀释
@CookerFlips 某种程度上是这样。$IREN 的主要牛点，如果你愿意忽略噪音的话，其实是他们最近收购了 Mirantis 的软件业务。 但我还是不想去接那种为了买 5GW GPU 产能、被稀释 60 亿美元的公司。
英文原文
@CookerFlips In a sense. The main bull case for $IREN was their software acquisition with Mirantis recently if you want to look past the fluff. Still wouldn't want to be the one to get diluted $6B to fund their 5 GW worth of GPU purchases.
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继续看空 IREN，认为它只是品牌协议和稀释机器
我现在还是看空 $IREN。 算法 / 散户大概是看见 $NVDA 和 $IREN 合作就冲了进去。 但如果看现实情况，那更像是一个品牌协议，给了 $NVDA 无风险的可转票据。 所以 $IREN 还能继续把 60 亿美元 ATM 卖给散户。 这就像一家创业公司用了 AWS，就说自己和 Amazon 合作，然后让别人给它 60 亿美元。 这根本不是 Nvidia 直接给 IREN 融资，只是给了它一个无风险选择权。 有个“5GW 部署”故事，但我不想成为那个替它接稀释的人。
英文原文
I still am bearish on $IREN. Algorithms/retail probably read $NVDA + $IREN partnership and bought it up. However, if you look at the realtity, it's just looks like brand agreement giving $NVDA risk-free convertible notes. So $IREN can continue selling their $6,000,000,000 ATM into retail investors. It's the equivalent of a startup using AWS and saying they have an Amazon partnership so give them $6B. This wasn't Nvidia directly funding $IREN yet, just a risk free option to. There's a "5 GW deployment" but I'd rather not be the one buying into the dilution to fund it.
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财报非常正面，市场反应却看错了
$AAOI 报了财，我看下来其实非常正面，和市场反应完全相反。 和所有 2027 年那种超高斜率前瞻成长公司一样： 大家不该只盯当前财报。 市场漏掉的关键点是： AOI 已经把 800G transceiver 的产能做到每月 10 万台。 而且管理层说，随着产能上线，Q3 开始会有明显更大的增长。 如果真看财务： non-GAAP 毛利率约 29.2% 营收约 1.511 亿美元，Q2 指引 1.8 亿到 1.98 亿美元。 我们已经从 Lumentum 的财报知道，这更多是产能瓶颈，不是需求瓶颈。只要能做出来，都会卖完。 这是一个前瞻成长故事，所以除了这些数字之外，更重要的是财报电话会里对 hyperscaler 需求和产能爬坡的说明。
英文原文
$AAOI reported earnings, it's actually extremely positive so far contrary to market reactions. Like all 2027 hyperbolic forward growth companies: Nobody should care about current financials. Key things market missed was: AOI: hit They hit 100K units/month capacity for 800G transceivers. And: -> "Significant larger growth expected starting in Q3 as capacity comes online" If you do look at financials: It's ~29.2% non GAAP gross margin on ~$151.1M revenue, guiding $180-$198m Q2. We already know from Lumentum earnings that it's more of capacity bottleneck, not a demand one. And anything they make they sell out. It's a forward growth story, so important thing aside from these notes is the earnings call on hyperscaler demand implications and capacity ramp.
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夸对方帖子很酷
@KSimback 超酷的帖子！看这些历史轨迹很有意思。
英文原文
@KSimback Super cool post! Fun to see some track history
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对媒体持续误导 SIVE 表示不解
@StormDirac 读这种新闻报道看 $SIVE 真的很有意思。 我只是好奇，新闻媒体为什么每天都要发这么多误导性的帖子。 不过看他们错得这么离谱，也挺有娱乐性。
英文原文
@StormDirac Reading journalism like this is something else for $SIVE. I’m just curious what incentives news media have to publish a lot of misleading posts like this every day. It’s a little entertaining how badly informed reporters are though.
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认为 FLNC 因双 hyperscaler 合同会重估
@AorakiTrading 对，如果没有拿到 2 份 hyperscaler 协议，我不会去建仓。 像 $NBIS 那样的一份大型 $MSFT 合同，就足以让这种小型能源公司发生巨大重估。 但他们拿到的是 2 份，不止 1 份。
英文原文
@AorakiTrading Yeah, I wouldn’t have taken positions if they didn’t get 2 hyperscaler agreements. One large $MSFT contract as seen with $NBIS would likely cause a massive rerating for a small energy company like $FLNC. But they had 2, not just 1
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回顾自己在 AAOI 30 美元时的提示
@reallynotu 我在 $AAOI 30 美元的时候就发过帖。 很抱歉它从 30 涨到 180，然后又回调到 155，哈哈。
英文原文
@reallynotu I posted about $AAOI at $30. I’m sorry it went from $30 to $180 then corrected back to $155 lol
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提醒不要满仓，但看好 FLNC 的双 hyperscaler 合同
@Kevin1151268 呃……满仓从来不是最好的主意。 不过好消息是，$FLNC 还有两个新的 hyperscaler 合同，当前的 backlog / 财报里都还没算进去。 能同时给两个 hyperscaler 供货，对这么小的公司来说意义非常大，谁知道合同到底有多大。
英文原文
@Kevin1151268 Uhh… going all in is never the best idea. But on the bright side $FLNC has two new hyperscaler deals not included in their massive backlog / financials yet. Supplying to two different hyperscalers is enormous for a company this size, who knows how big the contracts are.
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AAOI 基本面没变，只是短线波动更大
@Blake_BTFD $AAOI 没什么变化，只是短线价格变得更抖了？ 得习惯 Jane Street 带来的波动。我更多还是关心 1.6T 相关产能爬坡，以及财报里有没有额外的 hyperscaler 数字。 当前收入本身倒不是重点。
英文原文
@Blake_BTFD Nothing changed about $AAOI, just the short prices? Gotta get used to Jane Street adding volatility. Mostly curious about 1.6T related capacity ramp and any extra hyperscaler figures in their earnings. Not so much so about current revenues.
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只持有现货，不碰高 IV 期权
@Simipandaface 说明一下，我只持有股票。一般来说，我不喜欢高 IV 股票，比如 $FLNC 去做期权。
英文原文
@Simipandaface As a disclosure, I only have shares. Don't like options on high IV stocks like $FLNC as a general rule of thumb.
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认为 FLNC 的两份 hyperscaler 合同会压制空头
@pennycheck 对，不太明白为什么很多基金喜欢做空美国能源公司的方向性。 未来几个月内如果这两份 hyperscaler 合同落实，虽然数量还不清楚，但对他们来说大概会很吓人。这样可能会让他们逐步降低 $FLNC 的风险敞口，反而增加买盘。
英文原文
@pennycheck Yeah not sure why many funds like directionality shorting US energy companies... Having 2 hyperscaler deals convert sometime in the next few months with unknown figures is probably scary for them. Would probably make them derisk $FLNC over time, adding to buying pressure.
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在财报后看多 FLNC，认为双 hyperscaler 合同会重估
同意大方向，$FLNC 在财报后按 30 亿美元市值看其实挺有吸引力的。 能在这么小的市值上拿到 2 份直接 hyperscaler 合同，非常罕见。 $56 亿以上 backlog 已经降低了公司增长的风险，还不算新的 hyperscaler backlog，比如 $GOOGL 或 $MSFT。 这些 hyperscaler 合同是框架协议，很可能会在今年 Q3 很快转换，而且还没计入当前数字。 一旦公布，就是重大正面催化，类似半导体公司里的 qualification -> volume ramp。 Citi 分析师说："hyperscaler 订单的可能性会压过这一季度的几乎一切。我们预计公告会带来正面反应"。 我猜它们会在未来 3 个月内公布 hyperscaler 订单，之后大概率会被重估，所以我上了这艘船，把它当成短期催化交易。 如果按软件业务扩张后净利润约 2.88 亿美元（营收 60 亿美元，毛利率 13.0%）计算，2027 年前瞻市盈率大概 11.6 倍。 当前股价比 2 月价格低了 50%，但考虑到 hyperscaler 和 backlog 都在降低风险，我觉得这是一个很好的入场点（NFA）。
英文原文
Agreed high-level directionally, $FLNC compelling at $3B valuation post-earnings after taking a closer look. Very rare to see a US energy player that small get 2 direct Hyperscaler deals... The $5.6B+ backlog derisks the company growth, not including new hyperscalers backlog like $GOOGL or $MSFT. The hyperscaler deals were framework agreements, which are likely to convert "soon" Q3 this year, and aren't included in numbers. Once that's released it's major positive catalyst, similar to qualification -> volume ramp in semi players. Citi Analyst: "The possibility of a hyperscaler order will likely overshadow everything else in the quarter. We expect a positive reaction to the announcement" I'm going to go ahead and guess they'll likely rerated once they announce their hyperscaler orders maybe anytime in the next 3 months so I jumped on the boat as a short term catalyst trade. (not just 1 but 2) Also, if they hit ~$288M net income off gross-margin expansion ($6B revenue, 13.0% gross margins) from their software segment expansion, ~11.6x fwd p/e for 2027. The current stock price is -50% Feb's prices despite hyperscalers + backlog de-risking the company looks like a great entry point to me (NFA).
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博主惊讶发现刚提到的Faker和Aespa竟然一起代言$GOOGL广告
等一下...这感觉好奇怪，我刚聊了Faker和Aespa，结果他们突然一起接了$GOOGL的广告。
英文原文
Wait a sec… This feels so weird I talk about Faker and Aespa and suddenly they’re doing $GOOGL ads together. https://t.co/U9TJ1XHUDj
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回顾自己早期看多 Soitec 后的巨大涨幅
我第一次做多 Soitec 的时候，股价涨了 30%。 当时欧洲分析师还说这没什么新东西。 现在 $SOI 已经涨了几百个百分点。 https://t.co/ElgiQPMNhP
英文原文
When I first went long on Soitec and the price rose 30%. I had European analysts saying that there was nothing new about it. Now $SOI up a few hundred percent. https://t.co/ElgiQPMNhP
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说自己更愿意持有周期型设备股到 H2 2027
对我来说，大概会持有到 2027 年下半年开始。 我不喜欢长期持有像 $ASML、$AIXA、甚至 $TOWA 这种设备卖方。 垄断通常是例外，因为它们能保住估值，还能继续上行。 但大多数时候，它们主要吃的是周期的开始和中段，之后就会在下一轮周期前回落。现在通常是进入 GCS 爆发前的好时点。
英文原文
For me, probably until start of H2 2027. I don't like long term holding equipment sellers like $ASML, $AIXA, even $TOWA etc.. Monopolies are usually exceptions since they retain valuations + keep going higher. But they mainly benefit from the start-middle of cycles, then fall off until the next cycle begins. But now's usually a good time before the GCS ramp.
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继续强调 SIVE 是 CPO 超级周期的优质敞口
@PhotonCap 对，$SIVE 是即将到来的 CPO 超级周期里非常有前景的敞口。
英文原文
@PhotonCap Yeah $SIVE is extremely promising exposure to the CPO supercycle coming up.
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认为 LPK 是玻璃基板超级周期的更干净玩法
$LPK 在过去两周涨了 80%。在大约 6.87 亿美元市值下，这成绩不算差。 它大概是下一个玻璃基板超级周期里最干净的玩法之一。 量产之后，每个客户可能要 50 到 100 台机器，2027 年的量产节奏会覆盖 $INTC、$GLW、SKC 等很多公司（因为它们已经拿到了大约 80% 的主要玩家）。 每台机器平均大概 200 万欧元。 仅仅 5 家玩家在 2027 年就可能带来 4 亿到 10 亿欧元以上的收入（甚至更多）？因为它们基本上是大家都在用的 chokepoint。按照约 67.6% 的综合毛利率看，等量产爬坡还是挺有希望的。
英文原文
$LPK up 80% in the last two weeks. Not too shabby at ~$687M MC? It's probably one of the cleaner ways to play the next Glass Substrate supercycle. 50-100 machines per customer at scale, with "start of 2027 as mass production" across likely $INTC, $GLW, SKC, and others (since they captured ~80% of the major players). Maybe ~€2M average per machine. €400M–€1B+ across just 5 players in 2027 (could be more)? Since they basically supply to everyone as a chokepoint. Off ~67.6% blended gross margins. Seems promising for volume ramp wait time.
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吐槽瑞典文化在为本国工业失败喝彩
@shithouser2200 对，我真没见过哪种文化会天天为自己产业的失败和衰落喝彩。 这也是我为什么每次跟瑞典媒体互动都觉得很有意思。
英文原文
@shithouser2200 Yep, I’ve never seen a culture that cheered for failure and downfall of their own industries every day, it’s quite impressive. That’s why I’m always so amused interacting with Swedish media.
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认为算法看不懂供应链映射，只会继续做空
大概率还是纯算法行为，但昨天又有 0.76% 的流通股被做空了。 算法通常看不懂很多供应链映射细节，比如 $AMD 和 $GFS 一起做 CPO。 然后在 $GFS 的图片展示里，$SIVE 只被列成两个激光供应商之一。这就是 alpha，因为你知道别人不知道的东西。
英文原文
It's likely pure algorithmic, but another .76% of the float was shorted yesterday. Algorithms tend to miss a lot of the nuances of supply chain mapping like $AMD going with $GFS for CPO. Then $SIVE listed as 1 of 2 laser suppliers in $GFS image presentations. This is called alpha though since you know something others don't.
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继续讽刺瑞典媒体对 SIVE 的恶意报道
我还在笑瑞典人有多讨厌自己的前沿公司。 他们天天给 $SIVE 写打压文章。 这篇就很有娱乐性：本地记者未经邀请就跑去一栋空着的 $SIVE 行政楼前。 因为他们无法理解 CEO 其实在硅谷，或者设计团队正在美国做 CHIPS Act 相关开发。再加上楼外面没停多少车，以及 CFO 不愿回答关于保密 hyperscaler 合同财务细节的问题。 于是他们又写了一篇莫名其妙的负面稿。 还反复写“做这种激光的公司不止一个，Sivers 远不是唯一一家”。 比如 $LITE、$COHR 这些 600 亿美元以上的公司。 又写早前那种“CPO 没什么特别，很多年都有了”的说法。 而 GS 的预测却是 CPO 在未来两年从 10 亿美元 TAM 增长到 910 亿美元。 他们甚至还把“Plans”写成引号，好像不相信 Sivers 在给 $JBL 的 1.6T LRO 供激光。 我认为 $SIVE 明年会变成一家 100 亿美元以上的公司，尤其如果他们像 $LITE / $COHR 那样把下游 IP 集成起来，多吃一点 CPO 模块 BOM。 他们根本不懂 hyperscaler 供应链、前瞻成长，以及员工数量不等于收入这件事。 当地瑞典持股向西方转移，这件事其实一直是好事，因为它曾经是一家由本地散户主导的公司。
英文原文
I'm still laughing how much Swedish hate their own frontier companies so much. That they write hit pieces every day on $SIVE. This one was entertaining: Local journalists show up to an empty $SIVE administrative building uninvited. Because they can't fathom the CEO is in Silicon Valley or design team is working on US Gov CHIPS act dev in the US. And because there weren't many cars parked outside + CFO wouldn't take questions about secretive hyperscaler deal financials. They wrote a random negative hit piece. By repeating "There are several who make lasers like these and Sivers are far from alone". Several like $LITE, $COHR, $60B+ companies. and reported earlier that "CPO is nothing special, it's been around for years." While GS projects CPO going from $1B -> $91B TAM over the next two years. Even put "Plans" in quotation marks because they didn't think Sivers is supplying lasers to $JBL 1.6T LRO. IMO, $SIVE ends up as a $10B+ company next year, especially if they follow what $LITE / $COHR did with downstream IP integration to capture more of CPO module BOM. Just don't think Swedish people understand hyperscaler supply chains, concept of forward growth, or the fact that employee count doesn't equate to revenue. Transfer of control from local Swedish -> West is always appreciated, as this was a majority owned local retail company before.
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认为 CPO 是对所有光子公司都成立的新机会
$LITE 原本已经把 EML 和现有 pluggable optical transceivers 的价值定价进去了。 CPO 对所有光子公司来说，都是一个全新的机会，也是巨大的 TAM 扩张。 这是一次重大的架构变化，像 $SIVE 或 $SOI 这种过去没怎么受益的公司，也会明显受益。
英文原文
$LITE was priced in for EML and current pluggable optical transceivers. CPO is a completely new opportunity and massive TAM expansion for all photonics players. It's a massive architectural shift, and completely new optical companies benefit like $SIVE or $SOI that didn't as much before.
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强调超级周期要看 8 到 12 个月前瞻
市场其实不会把过去 12 个月的收入完整计入超级周期。通常会看前 8 到 12 个月。 不过，CPO 可能是我见过和这些公司市值相关性最大的超级周期。 所以我愿意花几个月时间，在最底部提前抢跑机构，去押这个最大的架构变化。中间会有 revenue bridge，但 scale up CPO 的量产爬坡就是会非常陡。
英文原文
Markets don't really price in previous 12M revenue for supercycles. Usually look 8-12 months ahead. However, CPO is probably the biggest Supercycle I've ever seen related to the MC of many of these companies. This is why I'm willing to spend few months waiting to frontrun institutions on the biggest architectural change at the very bottom. There's revenue bridges in between but scale up CPO is just parabolic volume ramp.