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用 Coherent 财报再次验证 CPO 的时间线
$COHR 财报笔记： Coherent 的 CEO 基本上又一次印证了 GS 研究里的判断，CPO 会成为非常大的收入驱动。 转录里有一句："One of the most important long-term growth opportunities for Coherent"。 对 $SIVE、$LITE 和其他 CPO 相关名字的时间线含义也很清楚： “初始 scale-out CPO 收入预计在 2026 年下半年开始，而 scale-up CPO 收入将在 2027 年下半年跟进”。 “Coherent 正在和多个其他客户合作，并预计 CPO 解决方案会被广泛采用。” 这也再次确认了采用程度。 scale-up CPO 是全盘最大的价值驱动点，会在明年下半年开始。我们现在还在 2026 年上半年，正进入下半年。 所以现在就是在任何东西落到报表前，提前抢跑 CPO 标的的理想时点。 这就是我说的“alpha”——在市场还看不见财务数据时，把未来先定价进去。 市场通常会提前 8 到 12 个月看未来……所以如果大规模量产在 2027 年 7 月开始（也可能再提前）， 而现在是 2026 年 5 月，那一大段定价会在 2026 年 7 月到 2027 年 7 月之间逐步发生…… 也就是在 2026 年下半年到 2027 年上半年之间，先把量产协议和前生产爬坡这些东西价格化。 在市场真正开始定价最大量能驱动之前 2 个月提前布局，就是我所谓的在下一轮 CPO 超级周期里“抢跑”。 我们知道它会来。现在只是在等。
英文原文
$COHR earnings note: Coherent's CEO basically reaffirmed GS research note about CPO being a massive revenue driver: Transcript: “One of the most important long-term growth opportunities for Coherent” In terms of timeline implications on $SIVE, $LITE, and other CPO adjacent names, just confirms timelines: "Initial scale-out CPO revenue is expected to begin in the second half of calendar 2026, with scale-up CPO revenue following in the second half of calendar 2027" "Coherent is working with multiple other customers and expects CPO solutions to be widely adopted." - This also reaffirmed adoption level. Scale-up CPO is the biggest value driver across the board that happens start of H2 next year. We're still in H1 2026 entering H2 2026. So this is the ideal time to frontrun CPO names before anything hits the balance sheet. This is known as "alpha"... pricing in things market fully don't know yet by looking at financials. Markets are typically forward looking 8-12 months... So if massive volume ramp happens July 2027 (might get pushed forward again)... And it's May 2026, a lot of that gets priced in between July 2026 and July 2027... between volume agreements H2 2026, and pre-production ramp H1 2027. 2 months before markets price in the largest volume drivers is what I call "frontrunning" the next CPO Supercycle. We know it's coming. Just a matter of waiting.
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小幅加仓 SKC，但对债务驱动扩产保持谨慎
@TedWilliams1930 只是小幅加仓，做了些摊平。我在它涨 50% 之前就已经有 HB 了。 只是抛出一些想法，SKC 更有争议；如果扩产是靠债务推动、还有旧业务拖累，我会更谨慎。 但它确实是玻璃基板领域的领导者之一。
英文原文
@TedWilliams1930 Very tiny add, cost averaging. I had HB before it jumped 50% though. Just throwing out ideas, SKC is more questionable, I get more uneasy when buildout is fueled with debt + there’s legacy drag. But it is one of the leaders in glass substrates.
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承认 TOWA 很无聊，但走势稳
我之前就说过 $TOWA（6315）会很无聊…… 但它就是像 Hammond 一样，慢慢往上爬。 也许直接做 $EWY 的多头看涨期权会更刺激？ https://t.co/7L0p2oeUqQ
英文原文
I did say $TOWA (6315) would be very boring... But it just keeps creeping up slowly over time like Hammond. Maybe going directly with $EWY longs calls would have been more exciting? https://t.co/7L0p2oeUqQ
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Auros 只是等三星和海力士认证后的放量
@PW8103841574101 Auros 没什么变化，它只是等 Samsung / SK Hynix 认证后开始放量。 我不控制日内波动。
英文原文
@PW8103841574101 Nothing's changed about Auros, it's just waiting for volume ramp after Samsung/SK Hynix qualification. I don't control day-to-day price movements.
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说明 AMAT 太大，没什么直接暴露
$AMAT 是一家 3400 亿美元市值的公司，你不会获得太多直接暴露。
英文原文
@StockStormX $AMAT is a $340B company, you're not getting much direct exposure to it.
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认为 LPK 是最喜欢的玻璃基板敞口
不，我现在最喜欢的敞口大概是 $LPK，因为它们给所有人供货。 我的意思是，如果你做多玻璃核心基板，Samsung、$INTC 和其他公司可能会更大一些。 SKC 可能是这个领域里市值最低的龙头。 然后如果它们跑通了，HB 大概会顺带受益，并且最终给其他玩家提供和良率相关的东西。
英文原文
No. $LPK is probably my favorite exposure right now since they supply to everyone. I'm just saying if people are long glass core substrates, Samsung, $INTC, and others are probably a bit bigger. SKC is probably the lowest MC leader in that space. Then if you see them succeeding, then HB gets a piggyback + probably ends up supplying yields related stuff to the other players.
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表示自己在 LPK 上的仓位最高
@tw_crypto_ 对，我在 $LPK 上的仓位最高……感觉像 HB / LPK 这种更上游的供应商，比 SKC 更去风险。
英文原文
@tw_crypto_ Yeah I have highest concentration in $LPK... feels like more upstream suppliers like HB/LPK are more derisked than SKC.
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认为做多 SKC 生态不算差
做玻璃核心基板的话，做多 SKC 生态好像也不算太差？ SKC（011790）—— 在 CHIPS Act 资金支持下，是玻璃核心基板的领导者之一，市值约 55 亿美元。 HB technologies（078150）—— 自动光学检测 / 良率，借着 SKC Absolics 做二次增长，市值约 2.5 亿美元。 SKC 的铜箔 / 电动车旧业务拖累似乎已经在见底。它的财报看上去像一团糟，但其实已经被市值定价进去，而且比那些有 60 亿美元以上稀释的美国公司要好。 HB 风险更低，估值也不高，而玻璃的良率会变得非常重要。 我在这两只上都只有很小的仓位。 本来还想再等一等，但市场看起来已经在把玻璃定价成下一个可能的 memory / photonics 交易。
英文原文
For Glass Core Substrates, doesn't feel too bad going long on the SKC ecosystem? SKC (011790) - Is one of the Glass Core Substrate leaders with CHIPS ACT funding at ~$5.5B MC HB technologies (078150) - automated optical inspection / yields piggy backing off of SKC Absolics at ~$250M. SKC's copper foil / EV legacy drag seems to be bottoming. Their financials seem like a dumpster fire, but it's kinda priced into MC + better than US companies with $6B+ in dilution. HB seems lower risk, low p/e and yields for glass is going to be pretty important. I do have very small exposure to both. Was going to wait a bit longer but seems markets are pricing in Glass as the next possible memory/photonics trade.
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ARM 再次进入自己高收益持仓名单
我猜在财报后，当 $ARM 碰到 268 美元的时候…… $ARM 现在已经成为我年内第 18 只 100% 到 1000%+ 的高收益个股了吗？ 老实说我都数不清了。像 $LPK、$SIMO 和 $HPS.A 也都已经快到了。 但感觉在 X 上，真正有我这种“收益 + 原始 thesis 帖子”完整记录的人，可能没几个。
英文原文
I guess, post earnings when $ARM touched $268... $ARM is now #18 on the individual stock list that I went long on that hit 100%-1000%+ YTD? I've lost count TBH. Some others like $LPK and $SIMO and $HPS.A are getting really close now. But feels like I'm one of the few ones out there on X with actual receipts of all the returns + original thesis post.
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AXTI 突破 100 美元，自己最自豪的 thesis 之一
而且……$AXTI 现在已经超过 100 美元了，哪怕盘中跌 10% 也一样。 看到这个 thesis 这么顺利兑现，真的很酷。 我觉得这是我最自豪的一个判断……既押中了 2026 年 photonics 超级周期，也押中了最上游的 bottleneck。 https://t.co/eiYElTtWsE
英文原文
And... $AXTI is now over $100, even on a -10% drop. Cool to see this thesis play out so well. I think it's my proudest one... calling both the 2026 photonics supercycle as well as the most upstream bottleneck. https://t.co/eiYElTtWsE
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提醒别人最近一个月 Intel AMD ARM 都在涨
@hiro_invst 你没看见这一个月的 $INTC、$AMD、$ARM 吗？
英文原文
@hiro_invst Have you not seen $INTC $AMD $ARM this past month?
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ARM 在 1 个半月里接近三位数回报
$ARM 这阵子看起来玩得挺开心。 自从我按 CPU 预测做多它之后，1 个半月里已经接近三位数回报了。 市场真的很喜欢 AI CPU，对吧？ https://t.co/hgWPOB6tIN
英文原文
$ARM seems to be having a fun time. Almost triple digit return in 1 1/2 months since I went long on their CPU projections. Markets really like AI CPUs huh? https://t.co/hgWPOB6tIN
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作者认为量子点投资时机尚早，现在投$ALMU会被稀释，不如等规模扩大再说。
不，我的观点是量子点(quantum dot)技术还为时过早，像$ALMU这样的公司。现在投资可能只是在为他们的研发稀释机器提供资金。很可能会像2025年的$POET一样，以"$420M资产负债表"为名义不断进行ATM增发/稀释。我宁愿等到准备批量生产的时候再获得上涨空间。
英文原文
No, my opinion is quantum dot is way too early with names like $ALMU. Investing now likely just funnels their dilution machine for R&D. Likely will end up like 2025 $POET with constant ATMs/dilution for their "$420M balance sheet". Would prefer to just wait it out and get upside when it comes time to volume ramp.
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把研发阶段时间线拆成产品到量产的路径
@CM_X_CM 老哥，这就是我说的研发阶段。 2026 年 Q4 “产品准备好” 然后进入 sampling，6 到 12 个月（也许到 2027 年 Q3） 然后进入 qualification，6 到 18 个月（也许到 2028 年 Q2） 然后再扩供应链 -> 量产（2029）
英文原文
@CM_X_CM Bro this is literally what I mean by R&D phase. Q4 2026 "product ready" Then they go into sampling, 6-12M (maybe Q3 2027) Then they go into qualification 6-18M (maybe Q2 2028) Then they build out supply chains -> volume ramp (2029)
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MicroLED技术就绪度低，$SIVEF/$AAOI等CW光模块企业更值得布局
MicroLED在高盛报告所述的任何CPO相关批量增长之前，仍然感觉还很遥远。 Quantum Dot（如$ALMU/QD）甚至没有被提及，因为它的前景在数年之外。 在调整中，"溢价"会消失，但估值底部由收入支撑。 另一方面，$SIVEF或$AAOI即将进入批量生产阶段（<800万），直接处于CW领域。 我更倾向于在经过多年研发/扩张之后立即获得上涨空间... 而不是等待数年从研发到样品再到认证...然后才到达批量增长的转折点。 MicroLED的"技术就绪度"很低。
英文原文
MicroLED still feels far away before any CPO related volume ramp per Goldman Sachs note. Quantum Dot like $ALMU / QD isn't even mentioned since it's way way out by years. In a correction, "premiums" disappear, but valuation floors are backed by revenue. $SIVEF or $AAOI on the other hand are volume ramping soon <8M and directly in the CW space. Would prefer immediate upside after years of R&D/expansion... Than waiting years at the beginning for R&D into sampling into qualification... Then inflection point of volume ramp. "Technology readiness" is low for MicroLED.
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LITE财报后市场误读CPO利好导致光学股被错杀，CPO超级周期才刚开始。
我认为很多人会很惊讶地发现，股票并不会直线上涨。 今天： 从 $LITE 到 $SIVE 再到 $AAOI，激光类公司分别下跌 -8.0%、-10.2% 和 -4.38%。 台湾涉及共封装光学(CPO)概念的公司如 MSSCorps、Shunsin 以及相关公司 Win Semi 跌停 -10%。 $AXTI 和 $SOI 分别下跌 -7% 和 -10.2%。 这是在 $LITE 发布财报之后。 我非常确定，市场错过了财报电话会议中关于 CPO 概念的强烈利好信号，但对于 $SIVEF 或 Shunsin 这样的 CPO 概念股来说，这是极度看涨的，然而算法交易却卖出了所有光学股。 这仍然是整个 CPO 超级周期的非常早期的阶段。 在任何量能上升之前。
英文原文
I think many people are surprised to learn that stocks don’t move in a straight line up. Today: Laser companies from $LITE to $SIVE to $AAOI are down -8.0%, 10.2%, and -4.38%. Taiwan limit down -10% on CPO names like MSSCorps, Shunsin, and adjacent like Win Semi. $AXTI and $SOI are down -7% and -10.2%. After $LITE reported earnings. Pretty sure markets missed the heavy nuance that this was extremely bullish for CPO names like $SIVEF or Shunsin from the earnings transcript, but algos sold off everything optical. This is still the very beginning of the entire CPO supercycle curve. Before any volume ramp.
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觉得人形机器人和物理 AI 可能开启新的工业革命
我们都知道，人形机器人 / physical AI 几年后会到来……所以这会不会只是 AI 版本的新工业革命的开始？ 我不知道 OpenAI 的 capex 是否可持续，但整个行业大概率会继续繁荣，因为它有国家安全和经济层面的双重意义。
英文原文
Well we know humanoids/physical AI is coming next in a few years… so maybe this is just the start of a new Industrial Revolution but for AI? Idk if OpenAi capex is sustainable, but industry as a whole will keep on thriving given national security implications and economic benefits
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比较 Auros 和 Towa 的不同风险画像
@2victorspoils 我更喜欢 Auros，因为它们和 SK Hynix / Samsung 的 HBM4 hybrid bonding 路线相关，估值大约 2.8 亿美元。 日本那边的 Towa 就更像是一家无聊但有垄断属性的复利型公司。 这只是我目前发过的其中一些名字，后面我还会分享更多。
英文原文
@2victorspoils I liked Auros for higher upside since they’re part of SK Hynix/Samsung Hbm4 hybrid bonding related roadmaps at ~$280mz Over in Japan, Towa was a bit of a more boring but monopolistic compounder. As the ones I’ve posted about so far. There’s a lot more, I’ll share a few later
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感谢对 AAPL 和 INTC 相关消息的提示
@DrNHJ 对，谢谢你提醒我关于 $AAPL 和 $INTC 的新闻。
英文原文
@DrNHJ Yep! Thanks for the news regarding $AAPL and $INTC.
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感叹普通事物在 AI 时代变得重要
我觉得历史上很少有时候，会有一堆看起来很普通的东西，最后因为被 AI 用上而变成世界上最重要的东西。 所以整个市场看起来都像个 meme，只要某些随机公司或商品涨了 2000% 到 6000%。 这是不是现代版的数字淘金热？
英文原文
I think this is one of only times in history. Where a bunch of random sht ends up the most important in the world, if its used for AI. So the entire market looks like a meme after random companies or commodities go up 2000-6000%. Is this the modern day digital gold rush?
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LPK 继续垂直上涨，玻璃生态很热
@tw_crypto_ 对，$LPK 在垂直线往上走，玻璃生态很热闹。今天 photonics 虽然跌了，但 memory + glass 能把它平衡回来。
英文原文
@tw_crypto_ Yeah $LPK is going in a vertical line up, fun times for the glass ecosystem. Photonics is down today, but memory + glass helps balance it out.
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说明 MSSCorps 做的是 CPO 检测
@itsadnyc MSSCorps 做的是 CPO 检测……
英文原文
@itsadnyc MSSCorps is CPO inspection...
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表示感谢
@jukan05 啊，谢谢。
英文原文
@jukan05 ah thanks
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观察到玻璃基板相关标的今天被机构一起买入
我感觉今天机构就是在买所有和玻璃核心基板有关的东西？ 像： - Philoptics，涨停 - HB technologies，涨停（SKC 供应商） - YCCHEM，涨 20% 而欧洲那边还有 $LPK。 不知道我是不是漏掉了什么重大消息。
英文原文
I feel like institutions are just buying everything glass core substrate related today? Stuff like: - Philoptics, limit up - HB technologies, limit up (SKC supplier) - YCCHEM +20% Then there's $LPK over in Europe. Wonder if I missed any major news.
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用图形化方式理解 CPO 的增长曲线
只是给视觉型学习者看一下 CPO： 这就是 GS + $LITE 财报确认下的 CPO 市场增长曲线。 有些名字和 CPO 的高 beta 相关性非常强。 也许……在超级周期最开始或中段时，去复制那些“橙皮”命名的公司，比如 $AAOI 到 $SNDK，再去做空别的名字，可能不是好主意。 尤其如果你是散户，人在欧洲，而且只看过去 12 个月的收入，而不是前瞻成长。
英文原文
Just for the visual learners about CPO: This is what the CPO market growth looks like from GS + $LITE transcript confirmations. There's certain names that are very high-beta correlated to CPO. Maybe... not the best idea to copy firms named after Orange Peels on $AAOI to $SNDK to short names. At the very beginning or middle of supercycles? Especially if you're retail, live in Europe, and only look at last 12 months revenue instead of forward growth.
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质疑关于基板睡不着的说法只是公司话术
@Mary_J_Fifer 这个 CEO 一个月前还说自己因为 substrates 睡不着。 我只是说，这更像是公司话术。
英文原文
@Mary_J_Fifer The CEO literally said a month ago he couldn’t sleep at night because of substrates. I’m saying this is just corporate talk.
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@marv_jones6 第 1 是 CPO，第 2 还是 CPO，第 3 也是 CPO，第 4 是 HBM4，第 5 是玻璃基板。
英文原文
@marv_jones6 #1 CPO #2 CPO #3 CPO #4 HBM4 #5 glass substrates
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提醒股票不会直线上涨
@amz_2077 我觉得很多人会惊讶，股票并不会只沿着直线往上走。
英文原文
@amz_2077 I think many people will be surprised to learn that stocks don’t move in a straight line up.
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认为 LITE 其实是在说 InP substrates 不够
我觉得这只是 $LITE 的公司措辞，意思其实就是： “我们没有足够的 InP substrates”。 还记得我去年说过，随着 photonics 放量，$AXTI 会继续作为关键瓶颈而增长吗？ https://t.co/DfeQa3haIK
英文原文
I think this is just $LITE corporate wording for: “We don’t have enough InP substrates”. Remember I sad last year that as photonics ramps up, $AXTI will just keep growing as a critical bottleneck? https://t.co/DfeQa3haIK
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认为 LITE 外购 CW lasers 让 AAOI 和 SIVE 受益
是的，$LITE 承认自己被迫从竞争对手那里购买 CW lasers，这对 $AAOI 来说是巨大利好。 因为他们自己就有 CW laser fab，而且目标是在 2027 年把产能提升 350%。 $LITE 财报电话会最重要的 nuance 是：$NVDA 已经在上游给 CW lasers 造成了巨大瓶颈。 很可能 $COHR 和 $LITE 都签了多年的 EML 协议，所以它们被锁死了，没法生产足够的 CW lasers。 我持有的一些原来被认为是“Tier 2”的名字，比如 $AAOI 和 $SIVE，现在很可能因为没有被 Nvidia 完全分配产能而地位上升。
英文原文
Yes, $LITE admitting they're forced to buy CW lasers from their competitors is a massive win for $AAOI. Since they have their own CW Laser fab (and target 350% increase in capacity by 2027). The massive nuanced takeaway from $LITE earnings call: $NVDA caused a massive upstream bottleneck for CW lasers. It's likely $COHR and $LITE have multi-year EML agreements, so they're locked up and can't produce enough CW lasers. A lot of the former "Tier 2" players I own like $AAOI and $SIVE, are likely elevated in status now given they're not fully allocated to Nvidia.