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称欧洲应强化细分垄断和主权供应链韧性。
回复 @BilalElmou89932：欧洲在 AI 竞赛中没有机会与美国竞争。 但他们能做的是强化自己的细分垄断/瓶颈，以及主权供应链韧性。 不过我认为他们开始意识到像 $SOI 和 $SIVE 这样的玩家对欧洲有多关键。
英文原文
@BilalElmou89932 Europe has no chance of competing with the US regarding the AI race. But what they can do is strengthen their niche monopolies/chokepoints, and sovereign supply chain resilience. I think they're starting to realize how critical players like $SOI and $SIVE are to Europe tho.
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EU CHIPS Act 2.0将光子学纳入政策，利好欧洲光子学。
欧盟 CHIPS Act 2.0 提案已经发布。 好消息：光子学现在被确认成为欧盟政策新的结构性增量。 这在主题上利好欧洲光子学行业。 从主题角度看： - “欧洲芯片倡议的新组成部分支持……”
英文原文
EU CHIPS Act 2.0 proposal is now released. Great news: Photonics is now confirmed to be the new structural addition to EU policy. This is thematically bullish for the EU photonics sector. Thematically: - "This new component of the Chips for Europe Initiative supports the https://t.co/BAqp80WDAV
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称CHIPS Act 2影响分析可作为供应链研究资料。
老实说，CHIPS Act 2 的供应链研究有点神。 因为如果你看他们的影响分析，欧盟政府已经替你做了很多工作。 他们会提到 TOWA 这类名字，“在模塑和密封系统中占61%”。 然后还会拆解 $ONTO、$BESI 等公司的控制环节。
英文原文
Honestly CHIPS ACT 2 supply chain research is kinda goated. since its done for you by the EU government if you go through their impact analysis. They mention names like TOWA "61% in moulding and sealing systems" Then breakdown of control like $ONTO, $BESI, etc. https://t.co/XRREGsEw0E
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指出CHIPS Act 2加入光子学，XFAB在部分报告中被提及。
回复 @laadred：不是，是因为 CHIPS Act 2 刚刚发布，而且加入了光子学。 “将光子学和光子集成电路纳入强化版欧洲芯片倡议2.0。” $XFAB 在一些报告中被提到。文件太长了，我现在还在逐步看完。
英文原文
@laadred No, its because CHIPS ACT 2 was just published now and photonics was added. "photonics and photonic integrated circuits to the reinforced Chips for Europe Initiative 2.0" $XFAB is mentioned in some reports. The documents are too long still going through everything now. https://t.co/oFTWd0SXT8
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注意到XFAB突然上涨并准备查会议记录。
回复 @KayEffGeee：$XFAB 突然涨了7%，我想知道那里是否有提到它。我现在去看会议记录。
英文原文
@KayEffGeee $XFAB suddenly rose 7%, I wonder if there was any mention there. I'll go through transcripts now.
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对比NASDAQ与欧股上市估值，认为XFAB被低估。
NASDAQ 和欧洲上市之间的差异： $POET：24亿美元市值 -> 封装 Sivers 激光器 -> 一个5000万美元预生产合同换认股权证 > $XFAB：17亿美元市值 -> SiC/GaN/MEMS/硅光子代工厂，受到 EU CHIPS Act 和 US CHIPS Act PMT 支持 -> 低于重置市净率价值 -> ……
英文原文
The difference between NASDAQ and EU listing: $POET: $2.4B MC -> Packages Sivers lasers -> One $50m pre-production contract for warrants > $XFAB: $1.7B MC ->SiC/GaN/MEMS/Silicon Photonics Foundry backed with EU CHIPS ACT, US CHIPS ACT PMT -> Below replacement P/B value ->
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称距离超过马斯克成为X订阅最多账号只差1000人。
哇，只差1000名订阅者我就超过埃隆·马斯克了！ 我现在是4.6万，马斯克是4.7万。 然后我就会成为整个 X 平台订阅人数第一的人？ 真有趣的时间线。
英文原文
Wow, only 1K more subscribers until I overtake Elon Musk! Right now I’m at 46K. Elon is at 47K. Then I’ll hold the crown of the #1 most subscribed to person on the entire X platform? What a fun timeline. https://t.co/sG5xJe9bMY
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称NBIS在暴跌后表现不错。
回复 @EestiRadar：很高兴 $NBIS 最终表现不错，业绩大超预期后那段回撤确实很残酷。
英文原文
@EestiRadar Glad $NBIS turned out well, that drawdown after blowout earnings was pretty brutal.
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没预期英伟达今年入股Marvell，但看好其ASIC/连接收入机会。
回复 @WEB3_furture：好文章！我其实没想到 $NVDA 今年会与 $MRVL 合作并入股。 但无论如何，我本来就预计 Marvell 会因为即将到来的 ASIC/连接收入机会而成为一个有吸引力的想法。
英文原文
@WEB3_furture Great article! I actually didn't expect $NVDA to partner and take a stake in $MRVL this year. But I expected Marvell to be a compelling idea anyway from their upcoming ASIC/connectivity revenue opportunites.
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比较Neocloud公司融资结构：NBIS优于CRWV和IREN。
回复 @BKCY314：融资结构差异非常大，$CRWV 正被债务利息活活吞噬。 $IREN 因为过度 ATM，股权增值很少。 $NBIS 刚刚好，而且还有来自 Avride 子公司和 ClickHouse 持股的分部估值。
英文原文
@BKCY314 Financing structure is much different, $CRWV is getting eaten alive by debt interest. $IREN has little equity appreciation from excessive ATMs. $NBIS is just right, and have sum of parts from its subsidiaries from Avride + ownership of Clickhouse https://t.co/FkGn0XWrdV
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复盘NBIS作为最高信念Neocloud选择从84涨到260。
看到我最高信念的 Neocloud 选择 $NBIS 走得很好，很有意思。 去年我写了一篇关于 Neocloud 行业将成为重大主题的论点。 然后选出了王者。 -> Nebius 在整个行业里排名第一，从 $IREN 到 $CRWV 都不如它。 84美元 -> 260美元。 论点被市场验证。
英文原文
Fun to see my highest conviction Neocloud pick in $NBIS age well. I wrote a thesis last year on the Neocloud sector becoming a major theme. And then picked the King. -> Nebius is #1 out of the entire sector from $IREN to $CRWV. $84 -> $260. Thesis validated by markets. https://t.co/RGOt3GSNjW
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认为SIVE空头可能加仓，但会随更多公告被击垮。
回复 @Jayden11129225：可能有活跃空头正在加倍做空 $SIVE。我预计他们随着时间会被打爆。 尤其是在更多公告出来后。 如果再有一个类似 $JBL 的惊喜公告，比如和 Innolight 这样的人合作，会很有意思。 因为 Sivers 正在共同开发/认证……
英文原文
@Jayden11129225 There's active short sellers probably doubling down on $SIVE. I'd expect them to get wrecked over time. Especially on more announcements. One more surprise $JBL type announcement with someone like Innolight would be interesting. Since Sivers is co-developing/qualifying with
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说明讨论的是ASIC/merchant NVLink CPO生态伙伴而非英伟达自身。
回复 @siflower：那是 $NVDA 直接相关。我说的是 ASIC/merchant NVLink CPO 生态伙伴。 在这些伙伴里，$SIVE 看起来像是所有人的供应商。
英文原文
@siflower That's $NVDA directly. I'm talking about the ASIC/merchant NVLink CPO ecosystem partners. Where $SIVE looks like they're the supplier to everyone.
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通过Ayar投资关系推导SIVE在CPO供应链中的确认。
回复 @Uri62223094：这是供应链确认。我知道 $NVDA 是 Ayar 的投资者，所以我会假设他们想要某种类似 NVLink 生态的战略合作。 $AMD 也投资了 Ayar，所以 $AMD 选择 $GFS 做 CPO，也让人能通过 Ayar 把1+1和 $SIVE 连起来。 联发科和 $INTC……
英文原文
@Uri62223094 its supply chain confirmation, I knew $NVDA was an investor in Ayar, so Id assume they wanted some strategic collaboration like NVlink ecosystem. $AMD also invested in Ayar, so $AMD going with $GFS for CPO also kinda put 1+1 together with $SIVE through Ayar. Mediatek and $INTC
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认为NVDA CPO生态第一代可能大量以SIVE为主供。
回复 @OGCapital25 @Chi_w_wong：Celestial 和 Lightmatter 尝试多源采购是预期之内。 但我猜第一代里，$NVDA CPO NVLink 生态很多会由 $SIVE 单一供应/主供应。 英伟达自己也有与 $LITE 和 $COHR 的项目。
英文原文
@OGCapital25 @Chi_w_wong It's expected Celestial and Lightmatter try and multi source. But maybe for gen-1 my guess is a lot sole source / primary source with $SIVE for the $NVDA CPO NVlink ecosystem. Nvidia has their own program with $LITE and $COHR.
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认为SIVE若当前估值60-80亿美元也不意外，纳斯达克上市可缩小折价。
回复 @MindQuest42：如果 $SIVE 今天以60-80亿美元估值交易，我不会惊讶。 话虽如此，它仍然在瑞典交易所上市，但纳斯达克上市应该会缩小这个差距。
英文原文
@MindQuest42 If $SIVE were trading at $6-8B valuations today, I wouldn't be surprised. That being said, its still on a Swedish exchange, but NASDAQ listing should close the gap.
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梳理NVDA CPO生态中SIVE作为激光供应商的确认度。
回复 @Chi_w_wong：$NVDA CPO 生态 = $MRVL、Lightmatter、Ayar（今天加入）。 $SIVE 100% 确认是 Ayar 的激光供应商。 $SIVE 很高概率是 Marvell Celestial、Lightmatter 的激光供应商。 Nvidia、Marvell、Lightmatter、Ayar 都使用 $GFS，而 Sivers 是参考激光器。 Sivers = ……
英文原文
@Chi_w_wong $NVDA CPO ecosystem = $MRVL, Lightmatter, Ayar (joined today) $SIVE 100% confirmed laser supplier to Ayar. $SIVE high confidence laser supplier to Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter. Nvidia, Marvell, Lightmatter, Ayar all use $GFS, which Sivers is reference laser. Sivers =
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称Ayar加入NVLink Fusion后，SIVE可能成为整个NVLink CPO生态激光源。
猜猜看，朋友？ 在今天 Ayar 加入 Nvidia NVLink Fusion 的新消息之后。 $SIVE 现在很可能成为： 整个 Nvidia NVLink CPO 已列供应链生态伙伴的激光源。 从 Marvell Celestial、Lightmatter，到今天的 Ayar（三个都列在 NVLink……）
英文原文
GUESS WHAT ANON? After today’s new news with Ayar joining Nvidia NVLink fusion. $SIVE is now the laser source for likely: The entire Nvidia’s NVLink CPO listed supply chain ecosystem partners. From Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter, and now Ayar today (the three listed in NVLink https://t.co/DAlXSOpMYH
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暗示某光子学公司成为NVDA NVLink Fusion CPO生态上游激光瓶颈。
哇……今天发布了一个极具转折意义的新消息。 这让某家光子学公司成为： $NVDA NVLink Fusion CPO 生态的事实上的上游激光瓶颈。 它们的激光器现在进入了 Nvidia 的光基础设施供应链。 有人能猜到名字吗？
英文原文
Wow… new extremely transformative news got released today. Making a certain photonics company: The effective upstream laser chokepoint for $NVDA NVLink fusion CPO ecosystem. With their lasers now in Nvidia’s optical infrastructure supply chains. Can anyone guess the name?
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称早已完成存储DD，EWY多头上涨480%验证论点。
回复 @LLTHTRS：我今年早些时候已经完成了所有关于存储的尽调。 我现在只是让自己的论点被验证，就像我的 $EWY 多头已经上涨480%一样。
英文原文
@LLTHTRS I did all my DD on memory earlier this year. I’m just letting my thesis get validated like my $EWY longs which are up 480%.
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称当天SIVE有比EU CHIPS Act更重大的新闻。
回复 @ConfusedNDazzed：今天 $SIVE 实际上有比 EU CHIPS Act 政策框架公告更大的新闻。
英文原文
@ConfusedNDazzed There's actually even bigger news for $SIVE today than the EU CHIPS Act policy framework announcements.
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认为SIVE/XFAB更匹配EU政策激励，SOI/NOK已更成熟。
回复 @aphexinvests：所以 $SOI 和 $NOK 已经更成熟。 我更深入看了，提案重点是3000万到5亿资金和收入激励，用来把放量前生产玩家桥接到高量制造(HVM)。 $SIVE / $XFAB 更符合政策激励，但我也不会惊讶……
英文原文
@aphexinvests So $SOI and $NOK are already more established. I looked into it deeper, and the proposals were focused around 30-500M funding and revenue incentives, to bridge the pre-volume production players to HVM. $SIVE / $XFAB map to policy incentives better, but wouldn't be surprised
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欧洲技术主权包和CHIPS Act 2.0突出光子学，利好XFAB/SIVE。
欧洲将在今天6月3日发布技术主权一揽子计划。 其中包括 CHIPS Act 2.0，预计会优先考虑光子学。 $XFAB 和 $SIVE 都在指导欧盟立法的产业政策蓝图中被重点提及。 这提出了主权支持……
英文原文
Europe is releasing its Tech Sovereignty Package, today June 3rd. This includes, CHIPS ACT 2.0, which is expected to prioritize photonics. Both $XFAB and $SIVE are highlighted in the Industry Policy Blueprints, which guides EU legislation. This proposes sovereign backing https://t.co/WWBlo5o1tL
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祝贺Ayar与英伟达相关进展。
回复 @AyarLabs @nvidia：恭喜！对 Ayar 来说是个好消息。
英文原文
@AyarLabs @nvidia Congrats! Great news for Ayar.
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预计物理AI未来3-4年开始扩张，10年内替代大量工作。
回复 @joestar1402：嗯，物理 AI 建设可能在未来3-4年开始扩张？然后再给它10年，实现大部分替代。 自动驾驶汽车会替代很多出租车/Uber 司机。 人形机器人/机器人会替代很多工厂或体力工作。 等等……专业岗位也会……
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@joestar1402 Eh next 3-4 years for physical AI buildout to start scaling? Then give it 10 years for majority displacement. Self driving cars are going to displace a lot of taxi/uber drivers. Humanoids/robotics replacing a lot of factory or manual work. And so on… speciality jobs will
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担忧下一代因AI、住房和通胀被困在底层。
下一代的大多数人会被困在永久底层吗？ > 今天错过了通过拥有基础设施/算力来控制 AI 的机会 > 大多数工作会被 AI 替代 > 住房更贵 > 通胀让生活成本一路飙升 GG？
英文原文
Is majority of the next generation stuck in the permanent underclass? > Missed out on gaining control of AI through ownership of infra/compute today > Majority of jobs getting replaced by AI > Housing more expensive > Inflation makes cost of living go brrr. Gg?
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称自己可同时跟踪约40个资产，依赖强数据记忆。
回复 @lilpeterlynch：是的，现在大概40个左右？我对某些数据点或新闻几乎有照相式记忆，所以能同时跟踪很多资产。
英文原文
@lilpeterlynch Yeah round ~40 now? I have near photographic memory when it comes to certain data points or news, so I’m able to track a lot of assets concurrently
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称某标的高风险，关注能否从认证进入SK海力士/三星放量。
回复 @venuvg18：我前几天摊了成本，这个风险更高，是看它们能否从认证阶段转向与 SK 海力士 / 三星的放量。 我在看下半年会发生什么。
英文原文
@venuvg18 I cost averaged the other day, it’s more high risk to see if they can shift from qualification to volume ramp with SK Hynix / Samsung. I’m seeing what happens h2
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称只是自己每天的随机想法。
回复 @DanCote303 @GOATTRADER5184：是的，只有我和我一天中的随机想法。
英文原文
@DanCote303 @GOATTRADER5184 Yep only me and my random thoughts throughout the day
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认为Win Semi可能成为激光器重要瓶颈。
回复 @finessetrades：Win Semi 最终很可能成为激光器的主要瓶颈。 它们只是还没有出现在很多分析师报告中，也还不被光供应链充分了解。 但我对它明年很有信心。
英文原文
@finessetrades Win Semi is probably going to end up a major bottleneck for lasers. They’re just not listed in many analyst reports or known about yet in optical supply chains. But I have high confidence in it for next year.