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SIVE与SemiNex合作开发CPO组件，旨在通过早期合作降低风险。
$SIVE 宣布与 SemiNex 达成 340 万美元的开发计划！ 针对共封装光学(CPO)、分布反馈(DFB)激光阵列和光放大器。 早期生产目标定于 2027 年下半年（与 CPO 早期规模化时间表一致） 起初我觉得这有点奇怪，考虑到产品重叠，因为 SemiNex 是一家规模小得多的 B 轮公司…… 但随后我想起了 $SPCX 与 Cursor 关系的弱化版（通过先合作来降低风险）。 Sivers 在这家公司里可能发现了有趣的东西。
英文原文
$SIVE announces a $3.4M development program with SemiNex! For CPO, DFB laser arrays, and optical amplifiers. Early production is targeted H2 2027 (in line with early scale up CPO timelines) Seemed weird to me at first given product overlap, since SemiNex is a much smaller Series B company... But then I got reminded of a less explicit version of $SPCX + Cursor relationship (derisking by working together first). There's probably something interesting Sivers found in this company.
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博主主张使用4字母代码如TFLN，反对使用3字母代码。
@sfproof 我主张使用更长的4字母单词，而不是3字母的，比如TFLN。而不是通过添加BTO或MTP来扩充列表。
英文原文
@sfproof I’m advocating for longer 4 letter words instead of 3, like TFLN. Rather than adding to the list with BTO or MTP.
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吐槽光学领域缩写繁多，新粉丝可能感到困惑。
是我一个人觉得吗，还是说这三个字母的光学行话真的没完没了？ 我们有LPO、LRO、NPO、XPO、CPO、OBO等作为技术路线。 然后还有InP、EML、ELS、OCS、SOI等一堆随机术语。 甚至连OCP或OFC这样的行业会议都有三个字母的缩写。 那些跟随我进行$SOI或$IQE光学瓶颈寻宝之旅的人，现在可能已经懂很多了。 但新粉丝会不会超级困惑……
英文原文
Is it just me, or is the list of 3 letter optical jargon never ending? We have LPO, LRO, NPO, XPO, CPO, OBO, and others for approaches. Then InP, EML, ELS, OCS, SOI, and others to add to the random terms. Even the industry events with OCP or OFC get their three letter names. People who have followed me on my optical bottleneck scavenger hunt with $SOI or $IQE might know a lot by now. But wouldn’t new followers might be super confused…
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CW激光器供应商如SIVE等未来重要性将显著提升。
@stockprodigyman 我的结论是，$SIVE / Win、住友、古河以及其他合格的CW（连续波）商用激光器供应商…… 在未来将变得重要得多。
英文原文
@stockprodigyman My takeaway was that $SIVE / Win, Sumitomo, Furukawa, and other qualified CW merchant laser suppliers... Are going to become a lot more important in the near future.
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COHR财报揭示InP激光器产能紧缺，CPO需求提前，收入高增。
我的主要观点是：商用连续波(CW)激光器供应商现在显得极其重要。 但 $COHR 财报的 TLDR（太长不看版）是： “鉴于我们在数据中心业务中看到的收发器需求，我认为在可预见的未来，我们都不会对外销售磷化铟(InP)激光器。” - 如果 $AAOI 无法为第一代共封装光学(CPO)部署提供足够产能，且 $COHR 不对外销售，那么那些对外销售 InP 激光器的公司将获得更高的估值。 我想这就是为什么 $MTSI 表示大量客户正迫切地向他们寻求 InP CW DFB 激光器（而他们直到 2027 年底才没有有意义的产能上线）。 $AAOI -> 内部自用 $COHR -> 内部自用 买家 -> 寻找产能的选择更少。 “我们的积压订单现已延伸至 2027 财年，基本上已完全预订。我们实际上已预订至 2027 日历年末。” [巨大的需求可见性] - Coherent 还提到了跨越至本十年末的长期协议(LTA)。这在一定程度上印证了 $POET CEO 在其年度股东大会上所说的“三大巨头”未来两年已完全售罄。 “我们目前在组装和测试产能方面并不受限。我们真正受限的是磷化铟生产的爬坡。” - 对于那些关注瓶颈的兄弟们来说，组装/测试并不是瓶颈。 “CPO 需求绝对没有推迟。事实上，情况恰恰相反。我们看到了需求增加，客户的要求被提前。” “我们继续预计来自规模化应用的 CPO 收入将从 2027 年日历年下半年开始流入。” - 如果 $LITE 和 $COHR 确认 CPO 规模化收入将在 2027 年下半年到来，这对其他 CPO 参与者来说是一个巨大的利好传导。 - “到 2027 财年末，季度收入超过 30 亿美元” - $COHR 收入飞速增长 所以常规数据如下： - 收入 20.46 亿美元（环比 +13.3%，同比 +33.8%），主要收入增长看起来发生在进入 Q4 至 2027 年期间 - 非公认会计准则毛利率：40.2% 下一季度指引为： - 收入：22-24 亿美元 - 非公认会计准则毛利率：39.5-41.5% 基本上： 16.9 亿 -> 18.1 亿 -> 20.5 亿 -> ~23.0 亿 -> 30 亿（2027 财年末） ~39% -> 39.6% -> 40.2% -> ~40.5%（毛利率） 对于营业利润率： 18.0% -> 19.5% -> 19.9% -> 20.3% -> 21.8% 与 $LITE 的利润率增长相比，我对盈利能力的印象稍逊一筹，但 $COHR 的收入规模正在快速增长。
英文原文
My main takeaway was that your merchant CW laser suppliers seem to be EXTREMELY IMPORTANT now. But TLDR of $COHR earnings: "given the demand that we see in our DC business with transceivers, I don’t see any time in the near future where we would be selling indium phosphide lasers externally" - Ton more value placed on companies that sell InP lasers externally if $AAOI can't doesn't enough capacity for first gen-CPO deployments, $COHR not selling externally... I guess that's why $MTSI said a ton of customers are approaching them with urgency for InP CW DFB lasers (and they dont even have meaningful capacity coming online until EOY 2027) $AAOI -> Internal $COHR -> Internal Buyers -> fewer places to look for capacity. "Our backlog now extends out, fiscal 2027 is basically completely booked out. We are booked really through the end of calendar 2027" [ Massive massive demand visibility] - Coherent also mentioned LTAs spanning end of decade. So this kinda reinforces what $POET CEO said at their AGM that the "big 3" are fully sold out next 2 years. "we’re not constrained in the assembly and test capacity right now. We’re really just constrained by the ramp of the indium phosphide production" - Just for the bottleneck bros in terms of assembly/test not a bottleneck. "absolutely no push-out of CPO demand. In fact, it has been the opposite. We have seen demand increase and request from customers’ demand getting pulled in" "we continue to expect revenue from CPO for scale-up applications to start to flow in the second half of calendar 2027" - Big read through on other CPO players for scale up if $LITE, $COHR reaffirm revenue from CPO scale up coming h2027. - "quarterly revenue exceeding $3 billion by the end of fiscal 2027" - $COHR revenue go brrr So for regular numbers it's: - $2.046B revenue (+13.3% Q/Q, +33.8% Y/Y), main revenue ramp looks to be happening entering Q4 into 2027 - Non-GAAP gross margins: 40.2% Next quarter guide is: - Revenue: $2.2–$2.4B revenue - Non-GAAP gross margins: 39.5-41.5% Basically: $1.69B -> $1.81B -> $2.05B -> ~$2.30B -> $3.0B (end of FY 2027) ~39% -> 39.6% -> 40.2% -> ~40.5% (gross margins) For operating margins: 18.0% -> 19.5% -> 19.9% -> 20.3% -> 21.8% Little less impressed compared to $LITE margin growth in terms of profitability, but revenue scale for $COHR growing rapidly.
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博主兴奋于COHR财报影响，将发帖。
@LightLogix 是的，现在正在看 $COHR 的财报，对其带来的影响感到非常兴奋，稍后会发帖。
英文原文
@LightLogix Yeah looking at $COHR earnings now, pretty excited about the implications, will post soon
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AI财报强劲，空头被迫认输离场。
@mikealfred 空头们在看到了从 $NBIS 到 $LITE 的所有人工智能财报后，又要回去冬眠了。
英文原文
@mikealfred Bears are going back into hibernation after seeing all these AI earning reports from $NBIS to $LITE.
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尽管积压订单充足，但高额利息侵蚀现金流，持续看空Coreweave。
@R42t0r 自去年以来，我一直非常明确地看空 $CRWV，相较于 $NBIS 和其他新云厂商。需求并非真正的问题，其超1000亿美元的积压订单，营收及59%的调整后EBITDA利润率看起来不错。但潜在的融资方式真的很糟糕……Coreweave的债务利息（例如Q2利息支出达6.4亿美元）过度侵蚀了自由现金流……作为参考，该数字约占Coreweave 15.1亿美元调整后EBITDA的42%。
英文原文
@R42t0r I've been pretty vocally bearish on $CRWV since last year compared to $NBIS and other neoclouds. Demand isn't really much of a problem with their $100B+ backlog, their revenue + 59% adjusted EBITDA margin looks good. But underlying financing methods is really bad... Coreweave's debt interest (eg. Q2 interest expense reached $640m), which eats into FCF way too much... That figure is like 42% of Coreweaves $1.51B adjusted EBITDA for reference.
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NBIS 业绩超预期，需求可见度极高，电力指引上调，看多。
$NBIS 的前景再次令人难以置信。 营收 5.823 亿美元（同比 +454%，环比 +46%），AI 云业务调整后息税折旧摊销前利润 (Adjusted EBITDA) 利润率约 50%。手头现金 80.4 亿美元。 重申财务指引（2026 年营收：30-34 亿美元；2026 年底年度经常性收入 ARR：70-90 亿美元），我原本希望会上调指引，但这已经是巨大的增长了。 重点不在于本季度财务数据，而是这些信号： - “我们今天就能以这些条款卖出 2027 年的全部产能。”需求可见度极高。 - “4 份客户协议，每份合同价值平均超过 10 亿美元。” - 约 70% 的 Q2 交易包含客户预付款。 - 签约电力指引再次上调，从约 4+ GW 升至 5 GW。（这曾是相对于 $IREN 辩论中的担忧点，但 Nebius 的电力指引持续飙升）。 - 预计 2026 年预付款超过 90 亿美元，并表示拥有超过 400 亿美元的承诺订单。 - 每兆瓦年度合同价值持续飙升（Q3 短期容量交易 >4000 万美元/兆瓦）。 看空故事依然存在（例如 56.6 亿美元的高资本支出和当前 GAAP 净亏损），但需求极度强劲且可见度极高，AI 云调整后息税折旧摊销前利润 (Adjusted EBITDA) 利润率持续提升（24% -> 45% -> 50% 的演进）。 我们昨天通过各大超大规模云厂商 (Hyperscaler) 的财报和 $CRWV 的积压订单已经大致看透了这一点，很高兴在 Weebius（应为 Nebius 笔误）的财报中看到印证。
英文原文
$NBIS outlook is pretty insane yet again. $582.3M revenue (+454% Y/Y, +46% Q/Q) off ~50% adjusted EBITDA margin (AI Cloud). $8.04B cash on hand. Reiterates financial guide (2026 revenue: $3.0–$3.4B 2026 EoY ARR: $7–$9B), I was hoping for a raise, but it's already massive growth. Not really about this quarter financials, but these signals: - "We could sell our entire 2027 capacity on these terms today." massive visibility on demand - "4 customer agreements averaging over $1B+ each in contract value" - Around 70% of Q2 deals included customer prepayments - Contracted power guidance was raised again, from more ~4+ GW to 5 GW. (this used to be a concern vs. $IREN debate, but Nebius power guidance keeps going through the roof). - Expects $9B+ of prepayments in 2026 and says it has $40B+ of commitments. - annual contract value per MW keeps going brrr (>$40M/mw for Q3 short term capacity deals) Same bear story will always be there (eg. large $5.66B of capex with current GAAP net loss), but demand is extreme with massive visibility, with increasing AI Cloud adjusted EBITDA margins ( 24% -> 45% -> 50% progression) We kinda got this read through from all your hyperscaler cloud earnings and $CRWV backlog yesterday, but glad it's showing up in Weebius's earnings.
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AEHR获AI处理器大厂追加订单，盘前涨5.39%。
$AEHR 获得其领先的 AI 处理器公司追加的 2200 万美元 AI 处理器晶圆级老化测试系统订单。看到这家小公司在众多垂直领域（内存、硅光子学等）如此快速成长，感觉很酷。消息公布后盘前上涨 5.39%。
英文原文
$AEHR receives another $22M follow on order for AI processor wafer level burn in systems. By their lead AI processor company. It’s cool to see this tiny company grow up so fast across so many verticals (memory, silicon photonics, etc). Up +5.39% premarket off the news. https://t.co/YkOtELzkmo
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SIVE 早期客户成功，具备收购潜力，但光模块同行缺乏困境资产。
@tontonborland @Sofigoodboy 我很确定 $SIVE 在早期就拥有 Lightmatter、Celestial、Lightelligence 和 Ayar 等客户。这些公司起初规模很小，最终都成长为估值超 40 亿美元的巨头。因此我相信他们很清楚如何处理有前景的私有公司收购案。除了可能市值约 2 亿美元的 OE Solutions 外，几乎没有提供光收发器设计的困境公开公司，但我不确定他们在 800G/1.6T 可插拔模块方面的进展如何。
英文原文
@tontonborland @Sofigoodboy Pretty sure $SIVE had Lightmatter, Celestial, Lightelligence, and Ayar as customers way early on before. And they all ended up ~4B+ companies after starting off small. So I'm sure they know what to do with promising private company acquisitions. There's not really much distressed public companies that offer optical transceiver designs other than maybe OE Solutions I think around ~$200m, but not sure how their progress is going with 800g/1.6T pluggables.
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澄清Win Semi自行采购衬底，并指出其在台拥有多元外延代工渠道。
@Mathieuber61726 不完全是，我很确定 Win Semi（胜科半导体）自行采购其材料/衬底供应。鉴于其在台湾的地位，Win 可能与 Landmark 等外延晶圆代工厂关系密切，从而拥有额外的采购渠道。
英文原文
@Mathieuber61726 Not really, I'm pretty sure Win Semi procures their own material/substrate supply. Given it's position in Taiwan, Win is probably well connected to epi foundries like Landmark for additional sourcing options.
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AAOI产能专供自产光模块，需求缺口大，利好股价。
@x4tsr 不，因为 $AAOI 表示其稀缺产能将内部专用于生产自有的 800G/1.6T 光收发器(Optical Transceivers)。他们称，即使所有产能全部投产，仍会出现 20-40% 的需求缺口。需求旺盛导致无法扩展至新产品线，这并非坏事。
英文原文
@x4tsr No, because $AAOI said that their scarce capacity is dedicated internally toward making their own 800G/1.6T optical transceivers. Which they said would be a 20-40% demand imbalance even if all their capacity come online. It's not a bad thing to have too much demand, that you can't expand to new product lines.
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反驳对SIVE的质疑，强调其IP模式独特性及在CPO领域的长期潜力。
@Malinrec - 因为新一代 1.6T 光收发器(1.6T optical transceivers)和共封装光学(CPO)的出货量尚未爬坡。$SIVE 正瞄准所有下一代光学变革。 这源于对架构转变的误解，如果客户 CPO 的大规模部署始于 2028 年，你不可能在 2024 年获得 9 位数收入。 - $SIVE 拥有 130 多名员工，如果我没记错，其中 1/4 到 1/3 是博士。 他们做的很多是知识产权(IP)，并使用 Win Semi 和外部晶圆厂进行量产爬坡。如果他们像 $FN 或 $COHR 那样做组装，你会看到员工数量激增。 不太明白为什么你说一个向 $JBL、$GFS、Ayar、$POET 和许多其他超大规模供应商供货的客户是毫无希望的案例。 这可能是我见过的最独特的案例之一。
英文原文
@Malinrec - Because newer 1.6T optical transceivers and CPO volumes haven't ramped yet. $SIVE is targeting all the next generation optical shifts. This comes from a misunderstanding of architectural shifts, you won't get 9 figure revenue in 2024 if customer CPO scale up deployments start in 2028. - $SIVE has 130+ employees and if I remember correctly, 1/4th to 1/3d were PHDs. Lot of what they do is IP and they use Win Semi, external foundries for volume ramp. If they did assembly like $FN or $COHR, you would see employee count balloon. Not quite sure why you say a customer supplying to $JBL, $GFS, Ayar, $POET, and many other hyperscaler suppliers is a hopeless case. Probably one of the most unique ones I've seen.
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SIVE有望复刻LITE路径，需并购及纳斯达克上市以扩大规模。
@Berlinergy 我说 $LITE 在2-3年内从30亿增长到600亿+，尤其是由于2023年底收购Cloud Light，使总可寻址市场(TAM)扩大了5倍以上。因为他们最初是从EML激光器/光组件的瓶颈环节起步的，后来通过并购发展。$SIVE 有潜力从CW激光器瓶颈环节起步，实现同样的增长。但这需要类似在可插拔模块或光引擎/ELS方面进行成功的并购。如果它们想达到类似的规模，就需要从像 $AAOI 这样的成品光模块中获取更多收入。而我的观点是，纳斯达克上市对于解锁更多资金来实现这一点是必要的。
英文原文
@Berlinergy I said $LITE went from $3b to $60B+ over a 2-3 year timeframe, especially due from Cloud Light acquisition in late 2023, that multiplied TAM by 5x+. Since they started off in the EML laser / optical component chokepoint originally before M&A. $SIVE has the potential to do the same starting off in the CW laser chokepoint. But it does require something like a successful M&A down pluggables or optical engines/ELS. To capture more revenue off things like completed transceivers $AAOI, if they want to get to a similar scale. And my take was NASDAQ listing is necessary to unlock more funding to do so.
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光通信财报验证CW激光器瓶颈，SIVE作为稀缺CPO标的获看好。
这就是我目前看到的关于 $SIVE 和连续波(Continuous Wave, CW)分布反馈(DFB)激光器瓶颈的情况。 来自光通信板块的财报： 1. $LITE：UHP CW 激光器出现意外需求和供需失衡。 - 有能力提高激光器的平均售价(ASP)。 - 共封装光学(CPO)扩产按计划进行，预计2027年下半年出货，称任何关于CPO扩产延迟的谣言都是噪音。 Lumentum 确认了时间表（此前 Sivers 因误导性报告被抛售），高利润率，以及经过认证的CW激光器需求极度旺盛。 2. $AAOI：由于光模块需求过大，CW 激光器产能不足。 - 并未实质性参与第一代 CPO 部署，$MTSI 看起来也不在其中，专注于非平面光学(NPO)。在 $SMTC 收购 HieFo 后，我没看到太多动静。 - 称激光器是光模块20-40%需求失衡中的瓶颈。 - 称客户每周都来找他们要求供货并加快进度。 AOI 确认了需求失衡 + 激光器瓶颈。第一代 CPO 玩家池子更小。 3. $AAOI 和 $LITE 均称中国玩家在 CPO 激光器方面落后数年，且实际认证产能远落后于其声称。 - $AAOI 称落后2-3年以上。 - $LITE 称未见到如中方声称那样的产出（若虚假也无追责手段）。 重申了 CPO 相关激光器的护城河，光通信板块并未如某些空头声称的那样被中国产品淹没。 4. $MTSI 称许多客户因磷化铟(InP) DFB 激光器普遍短缺而紧急接触他们。 再次将 Sivers 置于该瓶颈中，使其可能获得更多客户需求。 在 $COHR ($725.4亿市值)、$LITE ($665.7亿市值)、$AVGO ($2.13万亿市值) 中： 能以约 $15亿市值获得西方四大 CPO 领导者之一的 $SIVE，非常特别。 感觉我的论点得到了验证： - 我预测的 CW 瓶颈 - CW 激光器瓶颈（至少对于第一代而言，只有少数 CPO 玩家） 现在只需等待下一代光架构转变的拐点。
英文原文
So this is just what I'm seeing with $SIVE and the CW DFB laser chokepoint right now. From optical earnings: 1. $LITE: unexpected demand and imbalance for UHP CW lasers. - Had ability to price up ASP for lasers. - Scale up CPO on track for H2 2027 shipments, called out any CPO scale up delay rumors as noise. Lumentum confirmed timelines (that CPO players like Sivers sold off of misleading reports from), high margins, and extreme demand for qualified CW lasers. 2. $AAOI: doesn’t have enough CW laser capacity because of too much optical transceiver demand. - Not meaningfully participating in first-gen CPO deployments, with $MTSI not looking like they're in it either but focusing on NPO. Haven't seen much with $SMTC after their HieFo acqusition. - Called lasers as the bottleneck within a 20-40% demand imbalance for transceivers. - Says customers approaching them every week asking them for supply + to move faster. AOI confirmed demand imbalances + bottlenecks for lasers. And we got an even smaller pool for first-gen CPO players. 3. Both $AAOI and $LITE claimed Chinese players were years behind for CPO lasers and far behind stated claims in qualified capacity. - $AAOI said 2-3 years+ behind with CPO lasers. - $LITE said they haven't seen anything like Chinese claims in terms of outputs (and no recourse if it's false). Reaffirms moat for CPO related lasers, and no flooding from some shortseller claims on the optical sector. 4. $MTSI said that many customers are approaching them with urgency due to the general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers. Again, puts Sivers in the that bottleneck, giving them likely more customer demand . Among $COHR ($72.54B), $LITE ($66.57B), $AVGO ($2.13T): It's very special you get one of the public 4 Western CPO leaders at a ~$1.5B MC with $SIVE. Feels like my thesis with both: - The CW bottleneck that I predicted - CW laser chokepoint (where there's only a few CPO players, at least for gen-1) Got validated from earnings, now it's just waiting for the inflection points of next optical architecture shifts.
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毛利率骤降疑似库存减值，错失激进涨价良机。
@Schulz_Research 他们的毛利率似乎从 16.61% -> 15.22% -> 4.41%，这很可能是由于库存减值(margin liquidation)导致的。也许如果我们没有看到如此惊人的下滑，他们本可以推动激进式(activist style)的涨价。
英文原文
@Schulz_Research They went from 16.61% -> 15.22% -> 4.41% apparently, which was likely the margin liquidation. Maybe they could have pushed for activist style price hikes if we didn't see a surprising drop.
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Serenity基金计划买入SIVE和AAOI各六分之一。
@MaxChua16 Serenity 意识基金本会买入 $SIVE 和 $AAOI 的 1/6。
英文原文
@MaxChua16 The Serenity Awarness Fund would have bought 1/6th of $SIVE and $AAOI
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情境感知大举买入太阳诱电六分之一股份，引发关注。
传奇人物，情境感知(Situational Awareness)买下了太阳诱电(Taiyo Yuden)整个公司的六分之一。看到这一幕展开真是相当疯狂。
英文原文
What a legend, Situational Awareness bought 1/6th of the entire company of Taiyo Yuden. Pretty wild to see this unfolding. https://t.co/nBQW5DOZ5f
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博主对某人去杠杆但仍持公开市场敞口的情况表示遗憾。
@zephyr_z9 感觉挺糟心的，我记得之前有个更新说他虽然去掉了保证金/杠杆，但依然能持有上市公司的敞口。
英文原文
@zephyr_z9 Feels bad, I remember there was an update that he just removed margin/leverage but was able to still have public company exposure
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博主认同太阳诱电作为MLCC厂商对全球AI供应链的关键价值。
今日报道，Leopold 旗下的 Situational Awareness 收购了太阳诱电 (Taiyo Yuden, $6976) 11.62% 的股份。较 7 月 16 日的 5.99% 有所增加。我同意他的观点（如果他仍持有该仓位），即这家 MLCC（多层陶瓷电容器）制造商对全球 AI 供应链极具价值。https://t.co/fAQNpAFfhU
英文原文
It was reported today that Leopold’s Situational Awareness acquired 11.62% of Taiyo Yuden (6976). Up from 5.99% as of July 16th. I do agree with his position (if he still has it) in terms of how valuable this MLCC manufacturer is to global AI supply chains. https://t.co/fAQNpAFfhU
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博主因太诱电工是MLCC龙头且获机构重仓，今日加仓支持。
我原本不知道 Leopold 也是太诱电工 (6976) 这位多层陶瓷电容器 (MLCC) 瓶颈投资者。今天披露显示，Situational Awareness 截至 6 月 29 日持有该公司 5.99% 的股份，平均成本约为每股 17,446 日元。当前股价为 9,797 日元。我今天实际上加仓了一些以表示支持，因为太诱电工是全球占比最大的 MLCC 制造商之一。
英文原文
I didn’t know Leopold was a fellow MLCC bottleneck investor in Taiyo Yuden (6976) It’s been disclosed today that Situational Awareness owns 5.99% of the company with a ~ ¥17,446/share avg as of June 29th. Current prices are ¥9,797. I actually added some today to show support since Taiyo Yuden is one of the largest % MLCC manufacturers globally.
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SMCI营收指引强劲应获重估，但利润率指引不明令人遗憾。
@PatientGS 不，$SMCI 给出了 2027 年的爆炸性预测，其约 700 亿美元的营收指引相对于其 200 亿美元的市场资本化(Market Cap)而言非常惊人。 我仍然认为它应该获得重估(Rerate)。只是有点恼火，我无法得到关于利润率估算(Margin Estimates)的明确答案。
英文原文
@PatientGS Nah, $SMCI gave blowout projections for 2027 with that ~$70B revenue guidance relative to their $20B MC. I still think it should get rerated. Just a bit annoying I couldn’t get clear answers for margin estimates.
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博主转发了一条推文，未包含具体观点。
@zcelestialbaby https://t.co/ycw8XCCGzy
英文原文
@zcelestialbaby https://t.co/ycw8XCCGzy
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嘲讽SMCI CEO在财报中回避关键财务问题
Charles 兄弟，$SMCI 的 CEO 得去从政了。我从未见过有人在财报问答环节如此多地回避问题。- “你们 2027 年的毛利率是多少？”答：“我们期待实现增长。”- “你们预计 9 月份毛利率会改善吗？”答：“9 月。哪个 9 月？”
英文原文
Bro Charles the $SMCI CEO needs to become a politician. I’ve never seen a guy dodge so many questions on a Q&A earnings transcript before. - “what’s your 2027 gross margins” A: “we look forward to growing them - “do you anticipate margins to improve September?” A: September. Which is September?
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LITE财报证实CPO 27H2放量，CW激光供需失衡且中国厂商落后。
$LITE 财报电话会要点： - “我们对共封装光学(CPO)规模化部署的时间表可见度已提高。我们确信，2027年下半年我们的超高功率激光芯片需求将强劲增长。” Lumentum 确认其领先客户将于 2027 年下半年启动 CPO 规模化放量。 - “我们最近获得了首个外部光源(ELS)模块订单，将于 2027 年下半年交付。” ELS 行业放量时间表。 - “非平面光学(NPO)机会对我们完全是增量，显著增加了光学市场的总规模(TAM)。” 激光瓶颈俱乐部的 TAM 进一步扩大。 - “我们预计 1.6T 光模块的采用将从财年第一季度开始加速，并持续至 2027 年。” - “即使在连续波(CW)激光领域，我们对自己提价的能力也感到惊讶。” $SIVE 及其他 CW 激光玩家拥有积极的定价权。 - “因此，我们能够获得可观的价格溢价，并预计这种溢价将维持下去，即使这些中国厂商上线。我也提醒人们，我认为一些中国激光供应商目前并未在市场上实际交付，所以当它们抛出那些大数字时，没有追索权。迄今为止，我们在其产出方面尚未看到类似情况。” 中国厂商在激光/产能方面落后于市场预期，得到 $AAOI 和 $LITE 的证实。 - “不幸的是，我们在高功率激光的发货上远远落后。” “需求信号增加，相对于我们的供应能力，我们更加落后。” 超高功率(UHP) CW 激光产能存在极端供需失衡，EML 需求持续失衡。年底发货约 +5000 万美元 -> 1 亿美元+（“三位数季度”），进入 2027 年下半年和 2028 年更大的规模化需求。 - “所以，我认为过去三个月我们真正试图做的是确保更多的衬底供应”（因为供需失衡），“我们从 $AXTI 找到了额外的衬底帮助。他们是伟大的合作伙伴。” 磷化铟(InP)衬底瓶颈出现。 要点总结： - Lumentum 确认 CPO 2027 年下半年放量，驳斥任何“延迟”新闻为市场“噪音”。（一份延迟报告造成了巨大损害，Nvidia、Lumentum 等公司花了数周进行危机公关）。 - CW 激光需求在 2027 年下半年放量。 - 超高功率 CW 激光产能的极端供需失衡让 Lumentum 感到惊讶。 - 超高功率激光拥有极高利润率，并能对 CW 激光产能提价。 - 中国在激光/产能方面进一步落后。 基本上验证了西方 CW 激光玩家的时间表 + 需求/定价。 在主要放量开始之前，CW 激光的稀缺性已经发生……
英文原文
$LITE earnings transcript TLDRs: - "Our visibility into the timing of CPO scale-up deployments has also sharpened. We remain confident in a demand ramp for our ultra-high-power laser chips in the second half of calendar 2027" H2 2027 start of CPO scale up ramp confirmed from Lumentum for their lead customer. - "We were recently given our first external light source, or ELS, module purchase for delivery by the second half of calendar 2027" ELS industry ramp timelines - "The NPO opportunity is completely additive for us, significantly increasing the optical TAM." More TAM for laser chokepoint club - "we expect the 1.6T transceiver uptake to intensify starting in fiscal Q1 and sustain through calendar 2027." - "Even in CW, we’ve been surprised at our ability to price up" Positive pricing power for $SIVE and the other CW laser players. - "As a result, we are able to command a nice price premium that we expect to sustain, as these Chinese if these Chinese guys come online. I caution people also, I think people are some of these Chinese laser suppliers are not delivering in the market today, so they have there is no recourse when they throw out these big numbers. We have not seen anything like that to date in terms of their output." Chinese players are more behind than markets expect, corroborated by $AAOI and $LITE. - "We are way behind in our shipments, unfortunately, on high-powered lasers" "The demand signal has increased, and we are very much further behind relative to our ability to supply." Extreme demand imbalance for UHP CW laser capacity, continued demand imbalance for EML. Shipping roughly +$50M year end -> $100m+ ("triple digit quarter") into much larger H2 2027 and 2028 scale up demand,. - "So what we are trying to do, I think, really in the last three months is secure even more substrate supply" (because of demand imbalance), "we found additional substrate help from $AXTI They are a great partner." Hello InP substrate bottleneck. TLDR: - Lumentum CPO scale up H2 2027 shipments got confirmed, dismissed any "delay" news as market "noise". (one delay report caused so much damage, and it took Nvidia, Lumentum, and all these companies weeks to do damage control). - CW lasers demand ramp second half of 2027 - Extreme demand imbalance for UHP CW laser capacity surprised Lumentum - UHP lasers commands very high margins and is able to price up CW laser capacity. - China further behind in the laser/capacity angle. Basically just validated timelines + demand/pricing for Western CW laser players. CW laser scarcity is already happening before the main volume ramp even begins...
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AI产业链各环节财报强劲，需求与订单爆发式增长。
今天AI主题的财报简直疯狂，涉及$CRWV、$SMCI和$LITE。 Coreweave：荒谬的~1040亿美元+积压订单，这还不包括Q3初新增的250亿美元+客户协议。 Neoclouds（如Nebius、Iren等）的计算需求传导效应巨大。 Supermicro：荒谬的650-720亿美元营收指引，新增600亿美元+订单... AI数据中心建设的传导效应极其巨大。 Lumentum：营收从8.08亿 -> 10.1亿 -> 12.5亿美元攀升，运营利润率逐季增长。 光子学玩家一直在疯狂印钞。 简而言之：AI建设的每一层都在疯狂爆发，且体现在财报中。
英文原文
Insane earnings today for the AI theme with $CRWV, $SMCI, and $LITE. Coreweave: Absurd ~$104B+ backlog, which doesn't include $25B+ of new customer agreements added in early Q3. Compute demand read through for Neoclouds is enormous (For Nebius, Iren and others) Supermicro: Absurd $65-72B in revenue guidance, adding $60B+ in new orders... AI DC buildout read through is just enormous. Lumentum: $808M -> $1.01B -> $1.25B revenue ramp, with operating margins growing quarter after quarter. Photonics players just keeps printing. TLDR: Every layer of the AI buildout goes brrrrr, and it's showing up in earnings.
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SMCI因合规历史被市场折价，不适合所有人
@throw_away_9264 是的，鉴于其过往的合规失败历史，我认为市场对 $SMCI 施加折价是正确的。这绝对不是适合所有人的投资。
英文原文
@throw_away_9264 Yep, I still think markets are correct to apply discounts to $SMCI given history with compliance failures. Definitely not for everyone
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基于2026年H1营收预测，SMCI远期市盈率约4.1倍。
@KHqmjz 如果套用他们2026年至今的净利率，$SMCI 约为 ~7.7%。 如果他们在2026年上半年实现700亿美元营收且保持相同净利率，远期市盈率(Forward P/E) 约为 ~4.1倍。
英文原文
@KHqmjz If you apply their net margin for 2026 so far, $SMCI is around ~7.7%. If they do $70B revenue for H1 2026 with the same net margins, would be round ~4.1x forward earnings.
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SMCI 2027 营收指引大幅超预期，博主看好其估值重估空间并持有短期多头。
$SMCI 2027 年的指引简直“邪门”：FY 2027 营收指引为 650-720 亿美元…… 相比之下，市场预期约为 524 亿美元，轻松超出共识 161 亿美元。 SMCI 在此次财报中录得了超过 600 亿美元的新增订单。 这个时间线也很有趣，因为他们在 6 月曾宣布计划与 $SPCX 和 xAI 在“一年内”联合建设数据中心(DC)。 但如果 SMCI 能在那约 700 亿美元的营收指引下维持 10-15% 的毛利率……我认为鉴于市值(MC)仅约 200 亿美元，估值重估的空间很大（非财务建议，NFA，我目前基于此次财报持有 SMCI 的短期头寸）。 最重要的是从今天的电话会议中了解 2027 年的毛利率情况。
英文原文
$SMCI 2027 guidance was actually unholy: $65-$72 billion FY 2027 revenue guidance... vs. ~$52.4B expected, a casual +$16.1B above consensus. SMCI logged a massive $60B+ in news order from this earnings. That timeline is also interesting when they announced a plan to co-build $SPCX + xAI DCs "within a year" back in June.. But if SMCI sustain 10-15% gross margins off that ~$70B revenue guidance... I think there's a lot of room for rerating given MC is ~$20B (NFA, I have short term positions in SMCI now from this ER). Most important thing is learning about 2027 margins from call today.