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市场注意力短，需提醒MLCC等供应链瓶颈依然存在。
@MartinShkreli 我认为它们（瓶颈）和以前一样，只是有些像存储（Memory）那样变得更糟了。然后你会看到像 MLCC 或 WF6 这样的新瓶颈最近冒出来。只是现在市场的注意力持续时间极短，他们需要被提醒一个瓶颈仍然是一个瓶颈。
英文原文
@MartinShkreli I think they’re still the same as they were before, with just some like memory getting worse. Then you have new ones pop up like MLCC or WF6 recently. Just attention span is extremely short with markets nowaday, and they need to get reminded that a bottleneck is still a
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将Agility比作机器人界Anthropic，看好其巨头背书及企业级起点。
只是一个随想，美国领先的人形机器人玩家让我联想到当前的大语言模型(LLM)动态：Agility ($CCXI) 感觉有点像机器人领域的 Anthropic。在 $AMZN 和 $NVDA 的大力支持下，并深度整合了 $GOOGL Deepmind（类似 TPU）。它从企业级应用起步。
英文原文
Just a random thought, leading US humanoid players strangely me of the current LLM dynamics: Agility ( $CCXI ) kinda feels like Anthropic for robotics. With $AMZN and $NVDA heavily backing it, ingrained with $GOOGL Deepmind (like TPUs). And it starts off with enterprise
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Agility借壳上市催化机器人板块，能源股因新合同表现基于基本面。
@AleksandarGenov 可能是 Agility Robotics 通过 $CCXI 借壳上市以及相关的媒体叙事起到了催化剂作用。感觉在公告发布前，$OUST、$AEVA 和其他相关标的走势相当平淡。至于像 $FCEL、$BE 这样的能源股，随着新的大额合同落地，表现似乎更基于基本面。
英文原文
@AleksandarGenov Probably Agility Robotics going public with $CCXI and all the media narratives around it was the catalyst. Feels like $OUST, $AEVA and other names were pretty flat until the announcement. As for energy like $FCEL, $BE, seems pretty fundamental with new upsized contracts
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市场短视追逐热门，抛售远期瓶颈环节。
这个市场感觉就像一条患有ADHD的金鱼，注意力只有5秒，只在交易热门主题。难道市场现在只关心物理AI和能源？那些在2028年后成为瓶颈的存储和光子学却被抛售了？
英文原文
This market feels like an ADHD goldfish with a 5 second attention span, trading popular themes. It's like markets only care about physical AI and energy right now? And sold off memory and photonics that are bottlenecked past 2028?
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博主无视短期波动，坚定持有SIVE看涨激光放量，视稀释为长期利好。
@alGix0 我不担心短期波动，鉴于高贝塔值的光子学(Photonics)板块及当前宏观环境，这是意料之中的。 我持有 $SIVE 多头仓位，以验证我的投资论点，即激光出货量爬坡。 稀释可能是一个短期因素，但我认为从长期来看这是积极的。
英文原文
@alGix0 I’m not concerned with short term volatility, which is expected with high-beta photonics and current macro. I’m long on $SIVE to see my thesis play out with laser volume ramp. Dilution could be a short term factor, but I see the development as positive long term
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博主转发并延续他人之前的声明。
@SammmXBT 延续他们之前的声明 https://t.co/Cg9rksIigJ
英文原文
@SammmXBT Continuation of their previous statement https://t.co/Cg9rksIigJ
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SIVE确认未来几季完成纳斯达克上市，属重大进展。
$SIVE：“计划在未来几个季度内完成[NASDAQ]上市流程” 这一声明被许多筛选器（screeners）严重忽略。 从评估阶段到正式确认时间表，这是非常实质性的进展。 https://t.co/iOceCgJTG4
英文原文
$SIVE: "Intent to complete the [NASDAQ] listing process over the next few quarters" This statement was largely missed by many screeners. Very material improvement from evaluation, to formal confirmation of timelines. https://t.co/iOceCgJTG4
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Shunsin确认与TSM合作后暴跌，博主认为无实质利空。
@SidkMena 不知道，可能只是板块抛售。Shunsin 最近确认了与 $TSM 的直接共封装光学(COUPE) 合作伙伴关系。随后股价暴跌 15-20%。我认为除了 SemiAnalysis 反复唱空 Nvidia 生态系统外，没有其他实质性进展。
英文原文
@SidkMena Dunno, probably just sector selloff. Shunsin recebtly confirmed a direct $TSM COUPE partnership. Then proceeded to crash 15-20%. Don’t think there’s any material developments outside SemiAnalysis bearposting the Nvidia ecosystem over and over https://t.co/jxKIKup6F3
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摩根士丹利上调人形机器人出货预测并预警测试设备涨价。
最近看到的一些有趣新闻： 1. 摩根士丹利(MS)：将中国2026年人形机器人出货量预测从年初的1.4万和2.8万台上调至5万台。 2. 摩根士丹利(MS)：探针卡(Probe cards)和测试插座(Test sockets)可能涨价（贵金属上涨+严重短缺）
英文原文
Just some of the more interesting news I came across recently: 1. MS: Revised China humanoid shipments to reach 50,000 in 2026 from 14,000u and 28,000u earlier this year. 2. MS: Probe cards and test sockets likely to be priced hike (precious metal hikes + severe shortage of
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优必选发布高价超写实人形机器人女友，博主调侃外观成瓶颈。
我早就说过，让机器人看起来性感可能是一个瓶颈： 今天，优必选(UBTECH)宣布推出其首款全尺寸超写实人形机器人女友。 仅限成人购买，售价约145,717.90美元。 -“U1系列强调迷人的外观，且仅可通过 https://t.co/Lyit8L8Fw1 获取”
英文原文
I told you making the robots look hot might be a bottleneck: Today, UBTech has now announced its first full-size hyper realistic humanoid robot girlfriend. For adults only to purchase for only ~$145,717.90. -"The U1 series emphasizes attractive appearance and is only available https://t.co/Lyit8L8Fw1
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$SIVE获机构超额认购的溢价融资，验证市场强劲需求。
祝贺 $SIVE，他们已从机构投资者处完成7亿瑞典克朗的上轮增发(Up-side Round)。 该轮融资“超额认购倍数极高(Multiple Times Oversubscribed)”且价格略高于当前市价。 这验证了在当前市场价格下巨大的机构需求。 此次融资专门用于 https://t.co/SOP7XNjgT0
英文原文
Congrats to $SIVE, they have now raised an upside round of 700m SEK from institutional investors. The round was “Multiple Times Oversubscribed” and slightly upsided. Validating immense institutional demand around current market prices. This raise was specifically for https://t.co/SOP7XNjgT0
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感谢分享，指出公众围观易引发非理性行为。
@StormDirac 感谢你也分享你的经历，当执行过程或想法被许多人围观时，确实存在大量非理性行为。
英文原文
@StormDirac Thanks for sharing your experiences as well, there’s a lot of irrational behavior when execution or ideas are watched by a lot of people.
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SIVE募资扩产InP激光器，暗示代工产能分配及供应链扩张。
$SIVE 正在筹集约 6100 万美元（6 亿瑞典克朗）以扩大磷化铟(InP)激光器和光放大器的制造产能。 Sivers 采用轻晶圆厂(fab-lite)模式，因此这可能暗示正在为跨 Jabil 及其其他合作伙伴的连续波分布反馈(CW DFB)激光器增产寻找代工产能分配/扩产。 这也可能 https://t.co/8F1cMcCxfB
英文原文
$SIVE is raising ~$61M (600M SEK) to expand manufacturing capacity for InP lasers and optical amplifiers. Sivers operates as a fab-lite model so this is likely hinting at foundry allocation/scaling for CW DFB laser ramp across Jabil, and their other partners. It could also https://t.co/8F1cMcCxfB
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Agility Robotics 为博主最爱机器人持仓，拟9月借壳上市，V4已商用。
没错！Agility Robotics 目前是我最喜欢的人形机器人/机器人板块持仓。 据 Digitimes 报道，他们计划最早于 9 月通过 $CCXI 在纳斯达克上市。 仅供信息参考：他们的 V4 人形机器人已在亚马逊等站点运行。且 V5 已列入计划 https://t.co/e76CV1wOhv
英文原文
Yep! Agility Robotics is currently my favorite humanoid/robotics position. They're set to be listed on NASDAQ via $CCXI as early as September (per Digitimes). Just for informational purposes: Their V4 humanoid robot is already operating in sites like Amazon. And have V5 slated https://t.co/e76CV1wOhv
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探讨人形机器人量产可能催生机器人化妆品新产业链。
我好奇人形机器人是否会引发机器人化妆品领域的新瓶颈/新行业。比如皮肤瓶颈。或者像 Aespa KPOP 机器人改造服务。所以如果 $TSLA Optimus 生产数千万台人形机器人：谁来让它们看起来都很有吸引力？
英文原文
I wonder if humanoids is going to spark a new bottleneck/industry for robot cosmetics. Like a skin bottleneck. Or Aespa KPOP robot makeover as a service. So if $TSLA Optimus makes tens of millions of humanoids: Who’s going to make them all look hot?
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OpenAI独占Cerebras算力致非超大规模客户等待无限期
机器学习 $RDDT 子版块有一个相当有趣的轶事性投诉。 关于 $CBRS + OpenAI： - 需要 1-2K tokens/秒，所以尝试使用 Cerebras。 - 声称 OpenAI 预留了所有产能，导致非超大规模云厂商的等待名单无限长。 - 陈述 https://t.co/ZXPPg7v5Ch
英文原文
There was a pretty funny anecdotal complaint from the Machine Learning $RDDT subreddit. On $CBRS + OpenAI: - Needs 1-2K tokens/sec so tries to use Cerebras. - Claims OpenAI reserved all capacity, making waitlist infinite for everyone else not a hyperscaler. - Stated https://t.co/ZXPPg7v5Ch
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质疑美国AI巨头资本支出大幅下滑的可能性，并提及中国AI网络威胁论。
很难想象一个世界，其中美国AI超大规模云服务商（Hyperscaler）的资本支出（Capex）从$GOOGL到$META会出现大幅下降。 当像360这样的中国实体声称： 他们现在拥有一种“AI网络核武器”，可以黑客攻击西方公司和政府。 （周声称Mythos就像AI时代的网络... https://t.co/pBbhuAfJk3）
英文原文
Hard to see a world where US AI hyperscaler capex drops dramatically from $GOOGL to $META. When China entities like 360 go and claim: They now have a "AI cyber nuclear weapon" that can hack Western companies and governments. (Zhou claimed Mythos was like an AI era cyber https://t.co/pBbhuAfJk3
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博主表示经常遇到各种随机的瓶颈问题
所以我时不时会遇到一些随机的瓶颈问题……
英文原文
So I come across random bottlenecks here and there…
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博主感谢粉丝达90万，并反思高粉丝量带来的安全威胁噩梦。
我达到了90万粉丝，感谢大家！ 只是有些反思，在粉丝数更高时这实际上是一场噩梦…… 这对我来说是全新的体验，因为我今年早些时候几乎是白手起家。 1. 安全威胁，我并不喜欢。 - 随机新账号发送个人 https://t.co/NrHJbO0fWr
英文原文
I've reached 900k followers, thank you everyone! Just some reflection, it's actually a nightmare at higher counts... Which is new to me, since I started at almost nothing earlier this year. 1. Threats of safety, which I don't enjoy. - Random new accounts sending personal https://t.co/NrHJbO0fWr
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看好宇树和Agility，重仓后者，并持有哈默纳科。
对于机器人公司，我对宇树科技(Unitree)和Agility Robotics这两家人形机器人玩家持看好态度。我在Agility Robotics上的持仓集中度最高，因为我个人更偏好美国的人形机器人玩家。在上游组件敞口方面，我目前持有：- 哈默纳科(Harmonic Drive) https://t.co/YbMdym2gCQ
英文原文
For robotics companies, I have a favorable view on Unitree and Agility Robotics, two humanoid players. And I have largest concentration in Agility Robotics, since I personally prefer US humanoid players. For upstream component exposure, I currently own: - Harmonic Drive https://t.co/YbMdym2gCQ
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乐天与ASTS合资建日本LEO卫星网，以应对Starlink竞争。
据 Digitimes/日经报道，日本乐天(Rakuten)将与 $ASTS 成立合资企业，在日本建设低地球轨道(LEO)卫星网络。这一举措被广泛视为对 $SPCX Starlink 在日本日益增长的影响力做出的战略回应。
英文原文
Japan's Rakuten to establish joint venture with $ASTS to build out LEO satellite networks for Japan per Digitimes/Nikkei. "The move is widely viewed as a strategic response to the growing influence of $SPCX Starlink in Japan" https://t.co/RDFvgQNVsp
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GM裁员换机器人并与NVDA合作，验证机器人行业价值
$GM 裁员 1,000 人并替换为 50 台机器人（6 月 22 日报道） 报道还显示 $GM 正与 $NVDA 洽谈工厂机器人合作。 这是机器人行业的验证，因为它可能证明了员工运营支出(operex)利润率 + 效率的提升 https://t.co/wocndLGOcp
英文原文
$GM cuts 1,000 workers and replaces them with 50 robots (Jun 22nd report) Reports also show GM is working on a deal with $NVDA on factory robotics. This is industry validation for robotics, since it likely demonstrates increased opex margins + efficiency from employee https://t.co/wocndLGOcp
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POET 暗示激光器短缺将延续至 2029 年，加剧供应紧张。
关于 $POET 年度股东大会及光通信市场阅读的一些笔记： - “前三大激光器供应商占据 68% 的市场份额，且未来两年完全售罄” $LITE 首席执行官表示短缺将持续至 2028 年，因此 POET 隐含确认激光器短缺将延续至 2029 年。 - https://t.co/Lx8IHQ9fyK
英文原文
Just some notes on $POET AGM and read through on optical markets: - "The top three laser suppliers control 68% of the market, and they’re completely sold out for the next two years" $LITE CEO said into 2028, so POET implicitly confirms laser shortage is going into 2029 now. - https://t.co/Lx8IHQ9fyK
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博主认为2020-2030是人类历史上最辉煌的十年，涵盖航天、AI与机器人领域。
老实说，2020-2030 这十年可能是人类历史上最牛（goated）的十年。 - 通过 $RKLB 到 $SPCX 实现大规模可重复使用火箭的扩展，用于轨道计算。 - 借助 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 站在人工超级智能 (ASI) 和递归学习的门槛上。 - 波士顿动力 (Boston Dynamics) 和宇树科技 (Unitree) 的惊人突破。
英文原文
Honestly this decade from 2020-2030 might be the most goated in human history. - Scaling massive reusable rockets for orbital compute with $RKLB to $SPCX. - on the cusp of ASI and recursive learning with Anthropic and OpenAI - Backflipping Boston Dynamics and Unitree
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博主澄清无相关持仓，仅分享观点。
@I_Am_Bloateds 不，我没有任何上述持仓，如果有的话我会披露。有时我只是喜欢发布观点。
英文原文
@I_Am_Bloateds No, I don't own any of the above, if I did I would have disclosed it. Sometimes I just like publishing ideas.
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博主分享自建的用于实时追踪信息的个人终端工具。
@Sydneychaang 我构建了自己的个人终端(personal terminal)，用来随时跟进所有信息。https://t.co/tpg2GjgMTk
英文原文
@Sydneychaang I built my own personal terminal that I use to keep up to date with everything. https://t.co/tpg2GjgMTk
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舍弗勒是人形机器人供应链的理想标的，尽管债务高企。
没错，舍弗勒 $SHA0 是汽车领域玩家的理想范例。 ~ 74.7亿欧元市值的汽车玩家。 - 但也与45家人形机器人公司合作（数量极其惊人，他们确实有51.4亿欧元债务，企业价值更高） - 涵盖轴承、变速箱、传感器/电子控制单元(ECU)、执行器、功率电子。 https://t.co/uAbzdryP0S
英文原文
Yup, Schaeffler $SHA0 is the ideal example for automotive players. ~ €7.47B MC auto player. - but also working with 45 humanoid players (extremely insane number, they do have €5.14b debt, EV is higher) - covers bearings, gearboxes, sensors/ECUs, actuators, power electronics. https://t.co/uAbzdryP0S
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谷歌因算力限制Meta，致Meta转向Neoclouds且Gemini被削弱。
看来我们终于找到为什么 $META 在三月与 $NBIS 等 Neoclouds 签署巨额协议的原因了…… 以及为什么 Gemini 被大幅削弱。 据报道，$GOOGL 因算力限制，在 2026 年 3 月限制了 Meta 的容量。 谷歌 CEO 在上次财报中关于计算 https://t.co/LXGg8md2ur
英文原文
Guess we finally found why $META signed massive agreements with Neoclouds like $NBIS back in March... And why Gemini got super nerfed. $GOOGL reportedly restricted Meta's capacity in March 2026 because of compute restraints. Google's CEO said from last earnings computing https://t.co/LXGg8md2ur
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中国AI在网安基准追平Anthropic，博主认为政府应对正确。
《华尔街日报》：“中国在网络安全领域已追平 Anthropic，AI 竞赛格局重置” 中国的智谱 AI (Zhipu AI) 在某些基准测试中（例如利用网络安全漏洞）已追平 Anthropic 的 Mythos 模型。 嗯，这可不是什么好消息。 与其指责做出了正确决定的政府…… https://t.co/L2GFG32zsM
英文原文
WSJ: “China Has Matched Anthropic in Cybersecurity, Resetting AI Race” China’s Zhipu AI, has matched Anthropic’s Mythos in certain benchmarks, such as exploiting cybersecurity bugs. Well, that’s not good. Instead of blaming the administration which did the correct thing… https://t.co/L2GFG32zsM
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上游MLCC瓶颈笔记（内容未完整显示）
随便记一些笔记： 上游MLCC（多层陶瓷电容器）瓶颈…（原文未完整显示）
英文原文
Just some random notes : The upstream MLCC bottl…