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博主认同马斯克观点，预计特斯拉Optimus机器人形态将收敛于特定设计。
我认为@elonmusk说得很对：“机器人不必都是人形。但旨在替代人类劳动的通用机器人，应适应人类已构建的世界。收到，收到。”就我个人而言，我预计$TSLA Optimus的形态将收敛于右侧图片所示。
英文原文
I think @elonmusk said it best: “Robots don’t all need to be humanoid. But a general-purpose robot intended to replace human labor should fit the world humans already built. Roger, roger.” Personally, I expect $TSLA Optimus form factor to converge to the right image. https://t.co/il7tND3n59
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博主调侃无论是否提及SIVE都会引发争议，表达无奈。
@ram_blings 如果我提到 $SIVE，人们说我提得太多了。 如果我不提 $SIVE，人们又问为什么没提到它。 我怎么做都不对。
英文原文
@ram_blings If I mention $SIVE, people say I talk about it too much If I don't mention $SIVE, people ask why it isn't mentioned I can't win
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博主分享基于英伟达供应链瓶颈推导高贝塔标的的投资逻辑。
@KhalidIshaq85 至于黄仁勋/英伟达直接投资的公司： - $MRVL (Celestial)、$LITE、$COHR 用于光子学(Photonics)领域... - $CCXI (Agility) 用于人形机器人(Humanoids)领域。 我倾向于进行更复杂的投资，这是我的思考过程： -> 我知道共封装光学(CPO)主题即将到来 -> 英伟达锁定了所有连续波(CW)激光器的产能。 -> 也许，$AAOI、$MTSI、$AVGO、$SIVE、$SMTC 是剩余的西方CW玩家。 -> $SIVE 可能是最高贝塔(Beta)的敞口。所以那是我的个人多头头寸。 可能可以对其他主题做类似的分析。
英文原文
@KhalidIshaq85 As for names Jensen / Nvidia directly invested in: - $MRVL (Celestial), $LITE, $COHR for photonics... - $CCXI (Agility) for humanoids. I tend to do more complex investing, for my own thought process: -> I know CPO theme is coming next -> Nvidia secures all CW laser capacity. -> Maybe, $AAOI, $MTSI, $AVGO, $SIVE, $SMTC are remaining CW western players. -> $SIVE probably the highest-beta exposure. SO that was my personal long. Can probably do something similar for the other themes.
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博主认为应跟随Nvidia指引，押注CPO及物理AI供应链。
我觉得AI投资比人们预期的更简单。因为$NVDA和Jensen几乎直接告诉大家未来是什么。但不知为何，几乎每次市场都要等到事情真正发生才认可？ 2025年的Nvidia：大量收购EML和激光产能。 市场当时嗤之以鼻：“光子学是泡沫，像量子计算一样！____公司是骗局，管理层可疑。” 一年后：$LITE +678%，$AAOI +475.12%，$COHR +260.7%，$AXTI +3,843.9%。 _ 2026年的Nvidia： 通过长期协议(LTA)大量收购CW/EML产能。转向800V。明确强调共封装光学(CPO)的转型。指出物理AI(Physical AI)是下一个主题。 市场现在：“CW玩家是 meme 股！800V和CPO短期内不会到来，人形机器人无利可图！” 嗯……我们看看2027年会发生什么。 我认为我会押注Jensen/Nvidia作为领先指标。
英文原文
I feel like AI investing is simpler than what people expect. Because $NVDA + Jensen literally tells everyone what's coming. But somehow. Almost every. single. time. Markets dismiss it until it actually happens? Be Nvidia in 2025: Buys up EML and laser capacity. Markets dismissing it: "Photonics is a bubble and like quantum! ____ company is a scam with shady management" 1 year later: $LITE +678%, $AAOI +475.12%, $COHR +260.7%, $AXTI +3,843.9%. _ Nvidia in 2026: Buys up CW/EML capacity with LTAs. 800V shift. Extraordinary explicit about CPO shift. States Physical AI as the next theme. Markets now: "CW players are meme stocks! 800v, CPO is not coming anytime soon, Humanoids are not profitable!" Yeah... We'll see what happens in 2027. I think I'm putting my money on Jensen/Nvidia as the leading indicator.
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博主看好CCXI，因Unitree等中国IPO可能提振表现滞后的Agility。
@_stockResearch 我也非常喜欢 $CCXI。在它宣布消息时，我买入了大约该公司流通股的 0.25%-0.75%。我认为 Unitree IPO 和其他中国 IPO 应该会提振它，因为 Agility 相对于其预期开盘价表现滞后... https://t.co/o0GUaQtbh4
英文原文
@_stockResearch I also like really like $CCXI. I bought somewhere between .25-.75% of the company's float around the time it got announced. I think the Unitree IPO and other Chinese IPOs should give it a boost, since Agility has been a relative laggard to their expected open prices... https://t.co/o0GUaQtbh4
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AI供应链多环节瓶颈显现，内存、基板、组件及先进封装需求强劲，行业加速扩张。
一些我感兴趣的要点摘要： - $SNDK 投资者日显示，预计至2030年调整后毛利率达80%，运营利润率约75%，调整后自由现金流利润率约50%。 长期协议(LTA)已占2028年产能的2/3。最低合同收入达930亿美元（当前市值约2390亿美元）... 当你的收入/目标预计在未来4年持续至2030年时，很难将其视为周期性股票。 - $CRWV 签署合同，将使用6年前的 $NVDA A100 GPU 直至2029年。 对于 Nebius/Iren 等新型云服务商(Neoclouds)而言，这是利好，因为它反驳了如 Burry 的折旧看空论点。 - 据 UBS 估计，传统 DRAM 毛利率（如美光）到2027年将达到前所未有的95%，超越 HBM 毛利率。 如果预测准确，像南亚(Nanya)/华邦(Winbond)这样的传统/标准 DRAM 玩家应该会“起飞”(go brrrr)。 - 据报道，Anthropic 实现了14倍以上的同比增长，Q2环比收入增长约2.4倍至>115亿美元，预计2028年收入达190-2000亿美元。 你的前沿实验室保持疯狂的增长速度，如果不这样反而令人担忧。 - $NVDA 据报道正洽谈向 SB Energy（软银子公司）投资30亿美元，与 Apollo、BlackRock、Blackstone、Brookfield、Goldman 等共同推动 >5000 亿美元的算力融资。$NVDA Feynman 预计2028年下半年转向 TSMC A16 + SoIC + 定制 HBM + 共封装光学(CPO)。 每天都有更多英伟达新闻。 - $MSFT Maia 300 讨论了 $TSM 2027年 >30万颗的产能，并计划扩展至100万+。最快9月发布。 $MRVL 对此消息可能更高兴。关于当前情况： - 可能是微软当前 ASIC 扩产的受益者(GUC)。 - 对于亚马逊阵营，像 Alchip（我持有股份）可能在2026年下半年随 $AMZN ASIC 项目扩产... 所以关注超大规模云厂商 ASIC 扩产时间表及其受益者可能是个好主意。 - $TSM 先进封装副总裁表示“行业未来几年可能不仅面临内存短缺，还将面临 ABF 基板供应紧张”... 强调内存和 ABF 基板在未来几年都是瓶颈。 甚至上游 ABF 基板设备供应商也很高兴，例如使用真空层压设备的 Eternal Precision 表示订单激增，工厂满负荷运行，价格上涨20%+。 - $AMAT 预计2026年先进封装收入增长 >70%（此前预期 >50%），并表示客户讨论已延伸至2030年。 （不太熟悉这家公司，但发现其从2025 Q4 $68亿 -> $70.1亿 -> 79.1亿 -> $91.2亿 -> 2026 Q4 $102.5亿的预测增长率很有趣） - Google 在 OCP APAC 表示传统 48V 已无余量。$NVDA 详细说明了2026年下半年兼容 MGX 的 800VDC 机架（时间线，Delta / Lite-On 受益）。 - 除 $SNDK 外，南亚 LTA 覆盖50%产能。CXMT 上月签署多年 DRAM 协议，因此整个内存行业似乎都在效仿三大巨头的剧本。 - 探针卡(Probe cards)仍是瓶颈，MPI(6223)表示其探针卡产能因需求超过供应而保持满负荷。 本周早些时候已覆盖 CW 激光瓶颈（$AAOI, $SIVE, $LITE），那是另一个有趣的点。 - 据 Nichidenbo 称，部分 MLCC/组件交货期已达36周。 你的三星电机、太阳诱电、村田等玩家听到这个消息应该很高兴。 TLDR: AI 供应链疯狂加速(go brrr)。
英文原文
Just some TLDRs of stuff I found interesting: - $SNDK 80% adjusted gross margins projections through 2030, ~75% operating margins and ~50% adjusted FCF margins from investor day. LTAs already 2/3rd of 2028 output. Minimum contracted revenue reaches $93B (MC is currently ~$239B)... Hard to be a cyclical stock when your revenue/targets are expected to continue 4Y later into 2030. - $CRWV signs contracts for 6Y old $NVDA A100 GPUs through 2029. For Neoclouds like Nebius/Iren, this is positive, since it's a counterargument for eg. Burry depreciation short thesis - conventional DRAM gross margins eg. Micron is estimated to reach an unprecedented 95% by 2027, surpassing HBM GMs per UBS read through for legacy/standard dram players like Nanya/Winbond should go brrrr if projections are correct. - Anthropic reportedly achieved 14x+ YoY growth and roughly 2.4x sequential revenue growth q2 to >$11.5B,. estimating growth to $190–200B in 2028r evenue numbers. Your frontier labs keep growing at stupidly fast paces, it would be worrisome if they didnt. - $NVDA reportedly in talks to invest $3B in SB Energy (Softbank subsidiary), creates a >$500B compute financing push with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman, and others. $NVDA Feynman reportedly moves to TSMC A16 + SoIC + custom HBM + CPO in H2 2028 Just more nvidia news every day - $MSFT Maia 300 discussed $TSM capacity for >300k units in 2027, with expansion to 1m+. Unveils as soon as September. Likely $MRVL should be more happy from this news. For what's happening right now: - maybe GUC for Microsoft current ASIC ramp. - For the Amazon party, stuff like Alchip (I do own shares), likely is ramping now with $AMZN ASIC program H2 2026... So might be a good idea to look at hyperscaler ASIC ramp timelines + their beneficiaries. - $TSM VP of Advanced Packaging stated "the industry is likely to face not only memory shortages but also tight ABF substrate supply over the next few years"... Emphasis on few years for memory + ABF substrates for bottlenecks. Even upstream abf substrate equipment providers are happy, eg. Eternal Precision which uses vacuum lamination equipment stated orders surged, their plants have been running at full capacity, and 20%+ price hikes. - $AMAT expects advanced packaging revenue to grow >70% in 2026, versus prior >50%, and said customer discussions now extend all the way to 2030 (not too familiar with this company, but found their growth rate from 2025 Q4 $6.8B ->$7.01B -> 7.91B -> $9.12B -> $10.25B Q4 2026 projections pretty interesting) - Google said at OCP APAC said conventional 48V is running out of headroom. $NVDA detailed an 800VDC MGX-compatible rack H2 2026 (timeline, Delta / Lite-On beneficaries) - Aside from $SNDK, Nanya LTAs cover 50% of capacity. CXMT signed multi-year DRAM agreements last month, so entire memory industry seems to be following same playbook as ur big 3. - Probe cards remain a bottleneck, MPI(6223) said their probe card capacity remains fully utilized because demand exceeds supply. Already covered the CW laser bottleneck with $AAOI, $SIVE, and $LITE earlier this week, but that's another fun one. - some MLCC/component lead times have hit 36 weeks per Nichidenbo. Your Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Taiyo Yuden, Murata, players should be very happy to hear this. TLDR: AI supply chains go brrr.
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AAOI销售ELSFP和1.6T光模块可提升混合毛利率。
@LcubedInvest @logeonli16 $AAOI 在销售 ELSFP 和 1.6T 光模块时，混合毛利率会上升。
英文原文
@LcubedInvest @logeonli16 $AAOI blended gross margins goes up when they sell ELSFP and 1.6T optical transceivers.
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AAOI若执行产能计划，营收有望接近LITE，但两者估值差距巨大。
@logeonli16 这完全由你决定。但我预计 $AAOI 在 2028 年上半年初的营收将接近，甚至可能有 20% 的概率超越 $LITE，前提是 AOI 能完全实现其产能预测。当你看到 $120 亿与约 $800 亿的估值对比时，这相当有趣（其中很大一部分是因为 Lumentum 拥有更好的利润率）。
英文原文
@logeonli16 It’s fully up to you. But I’m expecting $AAOI to get close or maybe a 20% chance to surpass $LITE in revenue early H1 2028 if AOI fully executes on capacity projections. Which is pretty interesting when you look at the $12B vs ~$80B valuations (lot of it is better margins for Lumentum)
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博主列出过往持仓的年初至今表现，反问质疑者是否改变看法。
@Jimbo_Jones_Jr 你可以看看我今年早些时候或去年建仓的以下股票的年初至今(YTD)表现： - $SIVE, $IQE, $AXTI, $ARM, $MRVL, $INTC, $SOI, solana:NBiSF3UaVUFtRzHwAfxyHsBCAZWGEKnMpewAE4oh7BG, $AAOI, $LITE, $EWY, $TSEM, $AEHR, $RPI, $MU。 然后告诉我你是否还坚持之前的看法。
英文原文
@Jimbo_Jones_Jr You can look at the YTDs for: - $SIVE, $IQE, $AXTI, $ARM, $MRVL, $INTC, $SOI, solana:NBiSF3UaVUFtRzHwAfxyHsBCAZWGEKnMpewAE4oh7BG, $AAOI, $LITE, $EWY, $TSEM, $AEHR, $RPI, $MU that I did took positions on earlier in the year or last year. Then let me know if you still think that way.
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强调验证投资论点应看收益率而非绝对金额，并指出 $AAOI 涨幅超预期。
@alexgoumas 我不分享美元金额，因为在验证投资论点(Thesis)是否正确时，百分比才是关键。如果某人因为富有且持有 $1 亿美元仓位，从而在 $AAOI 上涨 1% 时赚了 100 万美元，这并不意味着他们的做多观点是正确的。但我会说，（其涨幅/影响）比人们想象的要大。
英文原文
@alexgoumas I don’t share USD amounts because % is what matters when validating if a thesis is correct. If someone made $1M off $AAOI going up 1% because they’re wealthy and had a $100M position, that doesn’t mean their long idea is correct. But I will say it’s bigger than people think.
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博主分享第6轮交易数据，强调$EWY贡献主要收益且仍重仓。
@halldj00 一些有趣的统计数据： - 第6轮中69.2%是未实现收益。未实现期权仅占~2%，98%是纯股票。 - 从峰值回撤约77.8%，如果在低点清算其实没什么风险，但恢复速度要慢得多。 - $EWY 多头在峰值时上涨了约450%，这构成了我早期已实现收益的最大部分，但我目前仍持有相当规模的仓位。
英文原文
@halldj00 Some fun statistics: - Round 69.2% is unrealized. ~2% of the unrealized options, 98% just pure shares. - Drawndown from peak was ~77.8%, not really any risk if liqudiation at the lows, but recovery was a lot slower - $EWY longs were up about 450% at the peak, those made up the largest portion of my earlier realized gains, but I still have a sizeable position in that.
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博主澄清归零传闻，展示AI崩盘后YTD收益仍超2400%。
说我归零的传闻未免也太夸张了吧 哈哈 经历了7月份AI板块的崩盘后，我的YTD(年初至今)收益依然还有 +2,411.84% https://t.co/m49XcPRgC3
英文原文
说我归零的传闻未免也太夸张了吧 哈哈 经历了7月份AI板块的崩盘后，我的YTD收益依然还有 +2,411.84% https://t.co/m49XcPRgC3
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美政府劝苹果弃购中国存储，CXMT/YMTC涨价打破廉价印象。
美国政府敦促 $AAPL 不要购买中国存储芯片。 $MU、$SKHY 和三星听到这个消息很高兴…… 颇具讽刺意味的是，长鑫存储(CXMT)/长江存储(YMTC)也在涨价，所以这并非“充斥市场的廉价中国存储芯片”。 在人工智能繁荣之前，苹果曾经拥有极强的供应商议价能力。
英文原文
US Government urges $AAPL not to buy Chinese memory chips. $MU, $SKHY, and Samsung are happy to hear this... Hilariously enough, CXMT/YMTC is price hiking too, so it's not exactly "cheap Chinese memory that floods the market". Apple once upon a time actually had extreme supplier leverage before the AI boom.
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博主拒绝分享详细交易拆解，仅发布观点供参考。
@BakshJahed 我不希望人们进行跟单交易(copytrade)，所以我并不积极分享详细的拆解分析。相反，我只是沿途发布一些观点，以便人们可以做出自己的选择。但我稍后会分享一些更新。
英文原文
@BakshJahed I don't want people to copytrade so I don't really actively share a breakdown. Rather just post ideas along the way so people can make their own choices. But I'll share some updates in a bit
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博主回应称两周前提及过RDDT，并指出常讨论多只股票。
@XIAOTU_Li 我的意思是，这在两周前就适用于 $RDDT，我讨论过很多股票 https://t.co/HwEuKKOiS1
英文原文
@XIAOTU_Li I mean this was like 2 weeks ago for $RDDT, I talk about a lot of equities https://t.co/HwEuKKOiS1
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质疑MU和SNDK的长期协议及高毛利预测，认为其周期极长。
@sellihca_espn 我的记忆包（持仓）相当沉重，谢谢关心。纯粹出于好奇，你认为与 $MU 签署的 16 份以上长期协议（Long Term Agreements, LTAs）...以及 $SNDK 到 2030 财年 80% 的毛利率预测是周期性大宗商品吗？（他们的长期协议已覆盖 2028 年大部分产量）。在我看来，这周期相当长...
英文原文
@sellihca_espn My memory bags are decently heavy, thank you for asking. Just out of curiosity, you think 16+ long term agreements with $MU. And $SNDK 80% gross margin projections through fiscal 2030 is a cyclical commodity? (their LTAs already cover majority of 2028 output). This is quite a long cycle if you ask me...
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指出SK海力士、三星、闪迪及美光的存储瓶颈问题持续存在。
匿名者，$SHKY、三星、$SNDK、$MU 的存储瓶颈从未改变 https://t.co/6Xyih3pM9D
英文原文
The $SHKY, Samsung, $SNDK, $MU memory bottleneck never changed anon https://t.co/6Xyih3pM9D
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特朗普签署行政令对无人机加征关税，利好本土供应链。
唐纳德·特朗普签署行政令，以加强美国无人机供应链。 利好美国无人机组件供应商如 $UMAC，以及无人机系统(UAS)制造商如 $ONDS 和 $RCAT。 简而言之，100% 关税适用于： - UAS 停机坪及某些关键组件 - 25 公斤以上无人机的某些部件 - 25 公斤以上的无人机 25% 关税适用于： - 更广泛的组件 UAS = 无人机系统（我在上述任何标的中均无持仓）
英文原文
Donald Trump signs a proclamation to strengthen US supply chains for drones. Benefiting U.S. drone component suppliers like $UMAC to UAS manufacturers like $ONDS + $RCAT. TLDR, 100% tariffs on: - UAS docking stations + certain critical components - certain parts for >25 kg drones - Drones >25 kg 25% tariffs on: - broader components UAS = Unmanned Aircraft System (don't have any positions in any above)
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Reddit有望纳入标普500指数，股价看涨。
@demarscrypto $RDDT 标普500指数(Standard & Poor's 500) 纳入，一路狂飙。
英文原文
@demarscrypto $RDDT S&P 500 inclusion go brrr
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三星与SKC推迟玻璃基板量产，相关供应商放量节奏随之延后。
感觉玻璃基板（Glass Substrate）的时间表又推迟了至少一个季度。 - “三星电机（Samsung Electro-Mechanics）推迟半导体玻璃基板投资”，原因是原型机在客户可靠性评估环节遇到瓶颈。 在最近不到一个月前的第二季度财报演示中，该公司将投产时间修订为2028年。 - “SKC据报道将玻璃基板量产推迟至2027年，目标年底前完成最终验证”（Trendforce），这是上个月早些时候的消息。 总结： - SKC Absolics 从2026年下半年推迟至2027年上半年 - 三星从2027年下半年推迟至2028年上半年 时间表的变动并不总是好消息，但玻璃核心基板（Glass Core Substrate）的转变似乎迫在眉睫。 部分玩家如 $LPK / Philoptics (161580) / E&R (8027) 的放量节奏可能跟随这些量产时间表。
英文原文
Feels like glass substrate timelines got pushed back at least another quarter. - "Samsung Electro-Mechanics Delays Semiconductor Glass Substrate Investment" due to a bottleneck in customer reliability evaluations of prototypes. At its recent second-quarter earnings presentation, less than a month later, the company revised the start of operations to 2028. - "SKC Reportedly Pushes Glass Substrate Mass Production to 2027, Targets Final Validation by Year-end" (Trendforce), earlier last month. TLDR: - SKC Absolics H2 2026 -> H1 2027 - Samsung H2 2027 -> H1 2028 Not everything is always good news with timeline shifts, but glass core substrate shifts do feel imminent. Volume ramp for some players eg. $LPK / Philoptics (161580) / E&R (8027) likely track these mass production timelines.
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博主在财报日买入SMCI，认为CEO负面言论对股价影响有限。
@Highonstocks_ 是的，我个人在看到指引后，在财报发布当天买入了 $SMCI。毕竟，‘吹风机效应’（指CEO的负面言论）对股价的拖累应该也是有限度的，对吧？
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@Highonstocks_ Yeah I personally bought $SMCI on earnings day after I saw the guidance. At a certain point, hairdryers should only weigh down a stock so much right?
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POET获230万新订单，需等财报电话会确认。
@Papsytwinz 嗯，除了 $POET 新增的 230 万美元采购订单外，没什么特别有趣的消息。需要等待财报电话会议。
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@Papsytwinz Uhh nothing really too interesting aside from a new $2.3M purchase order for $POET Will need to wait for earnings call.
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点评Vantage、Anthropic等IPO估值，质疑Anthropic并看好Unitree。
IPO新闻……Vantage Data Centers正考虑以惊人的1000亿美元估值上市。如果不熟悉，$ORCL是Stargate（OpenAI终端用户）的锚定租户，Vantage开发/运营超大规模数据中心。Anthropic也预计IPO，据FT报道，投资者预期其估值达2万亿美元，超越$SPCX。嗯……我对Anthropic的估值持保留态度。Jim Cramer为这种估值辩护从来都不是好兆头。顺便说一句，Opus 5大概是我用过的最差的消费级大语言模型(LLM)，它就像一个智商只有5的LLM，基于糟糕的数据检索运行，还带着一种类似《神偷》(Fable)游戏里的上帝情结。不过企业端可能体验更好。Unitree也预计本月IPO，估值90亿美元。这对人形机器人板块是积极的风口。SHEIN不是AI概念股，但将于本月19日尽快上市。去问问你认识的任何女孩，她们可能都熟悉这个平台。
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In IPO news… Vantage Data Centers is exploring going public at an enormous $100B valuation. If you’re not familiar, $ORCL is their anchor tenant for Stargate (OpenAI end user), and Vantage develops/operates hyperscaler DCs. Anthropic IPO is also expected, with investors expecting $2T valuation, eclipsing $SPCX per FT. Yeah… idk about Anthropic valuations. Jim Cramer defending that valuation is never a good sign. On a side note, Opus 5 is probably the worst consumer LLM I’ve used to date, it’s like a 5 IQ LLM operating off terrible data retrieval. With a Fable-like God complex on top. Enterprise is probably having a better time though. Unitree IPO is also expected this month and priced it at a $9B valuation. Which is a positive tailwind for Unitree for the humanoid sectors. Not really an AI name but SHEIN is going public as soon as the 19th this month. Go ask any girl you know and they’re probably familiar with this platform.
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CW激光器供需失衡严重，成AI供应链关键瓶颈。
@blkslymn 我不确定是不是只有我这么看，但我现在正看到巨大的连续波(CW)需求失衡（感谢 $NVDA）。这还是在规模扩展(scale up)和其他 1.6T 产品量产甚至到来之前。然后 $AAOI 和 $SIVE 出现了，它们拥有稀缺且独立的 CW 激光器或光模块产能……这通常会导致其他主要玩家如 $AMD 和超大规模云厂商转向关注它们。$MTSI 表示他们的产能要到 2027 年下半年才开始上线，而客户已经带着紧迫感向他们接洽……CW 激光器是我目前最看好的瓶颈之一。
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@blkslymn I'm not sure if it's just me, but I'm just seeing enormous CW demand imbalance right now (thank you $NVDA). And this is before scale up and other 1.6T ramps even arrive. Then you have $AAOI and $SIVE appear with scarce, independent CW laser or transceiver capacity... That usually leads forces your other major players like $AMD and hyperscalers to look at them. $MTSI said their capacity only starts to come online H2 2027 and customers are already approaching them with urgency... CW lasers is one of my favorite bottlenecks right now.
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博主说明研究发布习惯及持仓披露规则。
@dra99aso 我通常随着新消息发布（例如 Lumilens $55 亿估值公告 + 超大规模云厂商合同）沿途发布研究。但如果我像对 $POET 或 $SMCI 那样早先持有头寸，我会将其放入披露中。也许稍后我会做一个总结 TLDR。
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@dra99aso I usually just post research along the way as new news comes out (eg. Lumilens $5.5B valuation announcement + hyperscaler contracts). But I'll drop it in disclosures if I have a position on something like $POET or $SMCI earlier. Maybe I'll do a roundup TLDR later.
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分析SIVE、AAOI、POET三股在营收、产能及客户方面的不同瓶颈。
@SammmXBT 如果非要分类的话： $SIVE = 等待营收转化 大量超大规模云计算供应商 + 对 CW DFB（分布式反馈激光器）的需求可见性。市场希望如何为等待 2027 年上半年 1.6T 升级至 2027 年下半年 共封装光学(CPO) 规模化这一过程定价或赋予溢价？ $AAOI = 等待产能执行 对光模块的需求可见性极高。他们能否提升产能以满足每月 4.71 亿美元的预测？ $POET = 等待客户 相对于市值现金过多 + 供应链产能建设资金充足，但需求可见性很低。
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@SammmXBT If I had to categorize it: $SIVE = Waiting for Revenue Conversion Tons of hyperscaler suppliers + demand visibility for the CW DFB. How do markets want to price in or assign a premium on the waiting game for 1.6T H1 2027 to CPO scale up for H2 2027? $AAOI = Waiting for Capacity Execution Extreme demand visibility for transceivers. Can they ramp up capacity to meet their $471m/month projections? $POET = Waiting for Customers Too much cash relative to MC + heavily funded supply chain capacity setup, little demand visbility.
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分析$POET高现金低EV及产能风险，认为其技术壁垒弱于$SIVE，属高风险博弈。
好吧，这是我的 $POET 观点，毕竟子版块里有人因为我建了小仓位而在庆祝。 - 我完全没头绪。真的零头绪。他们是怎么说服股东允许他们如此大幅稀释股权，以至于： 他们现在手头有荒谬的 ~8.3 亿美元现金。 而且我猜他们快完工了，因为如果还需要更多资金，我会难以置信。 所以现在……他们有 ~8.3 亿美元用于通过并购(M&A)等业务扩张，且企业价值(EV)最近真的降得很低（例如：12.5 亿美元市值 vs. 8.3 亿美元现金在手），我认为这值得冒个险。 - 2027 年年度产能目标为 1200 万台光学引擎，这个爬坡速度相当离谱。 需要深入研究 Poet 产品的平均售价(ASP)，但可能在 $125-$200？所以按 ~$150 ASP 算，收入天花板约 18 亿美元。 但他们现在有点像反向的 AAOI：没有可见的需求来填满所有产能。除了 Lumilens，它现在是一家估值很高的超大规模供应商（可能是亚马逊或微软），拥有数十亿美元的客户协议。 有趣的是，如果 Poet 利用资产负债表与三菱等玩家签署了预付 EML 协议，或与 Sivers 签署了 CW 协议。 鉴于当前的瓶颈，玩家可能会利用 Poet 作为采购供应的变通方案。 但基本上，你拥有一家超级现金充裕、大量产能即将上线的公司。而且凭借他们的财务状况，他们不会很快消失。 我不太认为其技术护城河能像上游激光瓶颈那样具有防御性，比如 $SIVE 在 CW 激光器与 OE 封装方面的技术壁垒。正如你最近看到的 Celestial 和 Poet 的情况。 但也许……未来某个时候会有超大规模企业或下游公司宣布批量协议，$POET 随之起飞。而且他们确实具备爬坡的供应链布局。 这是我最终承担的风险，但它不像 $AAOI 那样对我来说是显而易见的长期看好。
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Okay here's my take on $POET, since apparently people are celebrating on the subreddit that I took small positions. - I have 0 idea. ZERO. How they convinced shareholders to allow them dilute SO MUCH to the point: They have an absurd ~$830m cash on hand now. And my guess is that they're close to done, since I would be in disbelief if they needed more. So now... they have ~$830m to grow their business like M&A, and EV actually dropped really low recently (eg. $1.25B MC vs. $830m cash on hand), that I thought it was compelling to take a risk. - Annualized production capacity target is 12M optical engines/year for 2027, which is pretty absurd ramp. Need to do more research into ASP for Poet's products, but maybe $125-$200? So at ~$150 ASP, $1.8B revenue ceiling. But they're like inverse AAOI right now: no visible demand to fill all that capacity. Aside from Lumilens, which is now a highly valued hyperscaler supplier (probably Amazon or Microsoft), with billions in customer agreements. The interesting thing is if Poet signed prepayment EML agreements with players like Mitsubishi, or CW agreements with Sivers behind the scenes with that balance sheet. And given the current bottleneck, players might use Poet as a workaround for supply procurement. But basically, you have a super cash-rich company with a ton of capacity coming online. And they're not really disappearing anytime soon with their financials. I don't quite think it's as technically defensible compared to upstream laser chokepoints with something like $SIVE around the same valuation in terms of technical moat for CW lasers vs. OE packaging side. As you've seen recently with Celestial and Poet. But maybe... there's a chance some hyperscaler or downstream company announces a volume agreement sometime in the future. and $POET takes off. And they do have the supply chain setup for ramp with that. That's the risk I ended up taking, but it's not exactly a clear as day long for me like $AAOI.
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IQE论点获验证，债务清零且获大厂订单，作者继续持有看多。
感觉今年2月我对 $IQE 的论点连同 $AXTI 等一起得到了验证。（我目前仍持有两者的多头头寸） 所以我减少了对它们的覆盖。但简而言之，更新如下： 今年早些时候，当我发布关于它的论点时，IQE 是光学供应链中一个陷入困境但关键的瓶颈环节，与 $LITE 等公司有关联。 自那以来： - $MTSI 签署了长期外延晶圆供应协议，并入股该公司，现在 IQE 已无银行债务（Macom 有可转债，但这是积极的） - $TSEM 签署了磷化铟(InP)外延晶圆协议。 - 管理层明确表示，其与 IQE 的协议是为了确保“该路线图所需的战略性 III-V 族外延晶圆供应” - IQE 签署了另一份约1400万美元的神秘 AI 数据中心合同。 我早期论点中仍在展开的部分是 IQE 将其潜在/未充分利用的产能转向 AI 数据中心领域，以匹配该领域的同行如 Landmark（这需要时间，如果我没记错的话，略多于一年的时间）。 还有一些国家安全层面的含义，我将避免谈论，但这使它们更加重要。 但基本上： 2025财年营收：9730万英镑 2026财年指引：超过1.265亿英镑 它们在光学领域再次快速增长，摆脱了银行债务/困境清算状态，并仍然是西方光学供应链中的关键瓶颈。 现在……随着与领先光子学公司的新协议带来营收增长，以及像 Macom 这样的玩家充当软性后盾。 通常在论点得到验证后，我只是坐享企业的增长。
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Feels like my $IQE thesis Feb this year got validated alongside $AXTI and others. (I still long on both) So I stopped covering them as much. But TLDR on updates: Early this year, IQE was a distressed but critical chokepoint in the optical supply chain with links to $LITE and others when I published my thesis on it. Since then: - $MTSI signed long term epiwafer supply agreements, took a stake in the company, now IQE is bank debt free (Macom has convertibles, but that's positive) - $TSEM signed agreements for InP epiwafers. - Management explicitly said its IQE agreement was signed to secure the "strategic III-V epiwafer supply required for that roadmap" - IQE signed another ~$14M mysterious AI DC contract. The only part that's still playing out with my earlier thesis is IQE converting their latent/underutilized capacity toward AI DC segment, to match peers like Landmark in the space (which takes time, like slightly over a year if I remember correctly). There's some national security implications that I'll avoid talking about that makes them more important. But basically: FY2025 revenue: £97.3m FY2026 guidance: over £126.5m They're rapidly growing again in the optical sector, out of bank debt/distressed liquidation state, and remains a critical chokepoint in Western optical supply chains. Now... with new agreements with your leading photonics companies for revenue growth, and players like Macom serving as a soft backstop. After a thesis gets validated, typically I just sit back and enjoy growth of a business.
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推测 SIVE 或整合新技术，为 CPO 提供高功率多波长光引擎。
@dankdrankkz Sivers 发现了一家去年完成 B 轮 300 万美元融资的小型公司，据称其单发射器功率已达 200-250 瓦。$SIVE 或许可以将其与高波长 DFB 阵列相结合，打造出例如 8/16 × 200-250 瓦的超高功率产品，以实现极高的总输出功率。该项目的重点在于共封装光学(CPO)对“更高功率、更多波长”的需求，这是我的猜测。
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@dankdrankkz Sivers found a small Series B company that raised $3m last year that achieved 200-250mw per emitter apparently. $SIVE can maybe combine that with their high wavelength DFB array, and maybe make something extremely high power like eg. 8/16 × 200-250mw for high aggregate output. Program was focused on "need for higher power, more wavelengths" for CPO, so that's my guess.
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基于财报指出CPO量产最早时间点，认为具体时间表极具看多意义。
@JoelLikesTurtle 如果你查看 $LITE 和 $COHR 的财报，共封装光学(CPO) 实现规模化量产的最早时间框架确实就是现在。而且给出如此具体的时间框架实际上是非常看多(bullish)的。
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@JoelLikesTurtle That's literally the earliest timeframe possible for CPO scale up early volumes if you look at $LITE and $COHR earnings. And giving that specific timeframe is actually extremely bullish.