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把 KRKNF 当交易想法，仍偏好 Soitec
@Noobverest 那些只是交易思路，我自己并没有持有像 $KRKNF 这种票。 不过我确实喜欢 Octopus。 $SOI 是我高信念的光子多头！
英文原文
@Noobverest Those were just trade ideas, I don’t have positions in stuff like $KRKNF. I did like Octopus though $SOI was high conviction photonics long!
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调侃自己发帖后 Soitec 涨了 20%
一个普通人在网上发了下自己对市值数十亿美元公司 $SOI 的看法…… 结果它就涨了 20%。 我现在这么强了吗？
英文原文
How does a random person posting their thoughts on a multi billion dollar company $SOI … Send it up 20% Am I that powerful now? https://t.co/fltXyAOyxC
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对比 NBIS 与 IREN 的融资结构，认为前者更优
$NBIS 和 $IREN 的差别，简直天壤之别。 Nebius：来自 $NVDA 的 20 亿美元稀释，没有立刻对公众流通盘形成卖压。 IREN：通过 ATM 稀释 60 亿美元，卖压直接打进公开市场。 这会直接从公众手里抽走流动性，并压制动量。 谁更能通过资本开支融资带来更高的股价升值，已经非常清楚了。 一个是与 Nvidia 的战略合作，另一个是有毒融资。
英文原文
$NBIS vs. $IREN. The difference is night and day. Nebius: $2B dilution from $NVDA, zero immediate selling pressure to the public float Iren: $6B dilution from ATM into selling pressure into the open market. This extracts liquidity directly from the public and suppresses momentum Very clear, which company leads to higher share value appreciation from capex financing. One is strategic with Nvidia, the other is toxic financing.
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认为做空 HIMS 是极其愚蠢的
做空者方向性加仓 $HIMS，真是蠢到家了。 他们最近的收购直接给 $HIMS 带来了全球 DTC 医疗零售市场。 交叉销售机会极其潜在，而且很难建模。 在这种情况下，这根本不是你平常那种有对冲的套利交易，所以风险管理非常差。
英文原文
Extremely stupid for short sellers to directionally double down on $HIMS. Their recent acquisitions just gave $HIMS the global retail market for DTC healthcare. The cross selling opportunities are extremely latent and hard to model. So very bad risk management, given it’s not your typical hedged arbitrage trade.
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认为 MRVL 受益有限，更看好 Soitec 和 TSEM
@siflower 你从 $MRVL 能拿到的直接敞口其实很有限。Celestial 的收入大约是 2028 年 5 亿美元、2029 年 10 亿美元。 Marvell 的大部分收入起量来自到 2028 年的 $MSFT Maia 和 ASIC，不过它依然是一只很棒的多头。 至于 CPO，我觉得 Soitec 和 $TSEM 大概是两个更关键的名字。
英文原文
@siflower You're getting very minimal exposure from $MRVL. Celestial revenue was ~$500m 2028, $1B 2029. Most of Marvell's revenue ramp comes from $MSFT Maia and ASICs toward 2028, but it's an amazing long nevertheless. For CPO Soitec and $TSEM are probably the two.
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回应新矿情报，提到原油略有冲高
@CoffeeStocksGuy 不错，你比我先说出来了。我对 $CODA 和 $KRKNF 得出了同样的结论，这挺有意思的。 这更多是对 12 个小时前新矿情报的反应。 看起来原油价格在消息出来后小幅冲高了。
英文原文
@CoffeeStocksGuy Nice, you beat me to it. Funny how you came to the same conclusion regarding $CODA and $KRKNF This was more reactionary to the new mine reports 12M ago. Looks like crude oil prices slightly spiked since the news.
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认为路透等消息证实伊朗在布雷，市场在找降温出口
@sergiovelezp 所以路透和其他消息源现在只是确认：伊朗当时确实在布雷。 特朗普昨天的表态大概只是一个下坡路出口和市场稳定器，目的是缓解保险和市场对油价飙升的担忧。 那并不是现实本身。
英文原文
@sergiovelezp So Reuters and other sources just confirmed now Iran was laying mines. Trump's statements yesterday were likely an off-ramp and market stabilizer to relieve both insurance/markets from spiking oil prices. Not the actual reality. https://t.co/puD7usiE98
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分析$CODA稳健基本面，伊朗布雷事件为声纳探测板块带来重大利好。
也不尽然，$CODA 看起来基本面非常稳健。现金储备充足，净收入为正，而且对于这个行业+传感器来说利润率极高。如果说有什么的话，伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡(Strait)布雷刚刚给声纳/探测类股票（如$CODA和$KRKNF）带来了十年来最大的利好。委内瑞拉的战争更多聚焦于无人机，如$AVAV，而且从未真正涉及水下领域。所以这可能是第一次让所有人看到这些应用的机会+导致更多资金流入该板块，尽管整体市场规模(TAM)并没有真正扩大太多。
英文原文
Not exactly, $CODA looks very fundamentally sound. High cash balance, net income positive, and extremely high margins for the sector + sensors. If anything, Iran placing mines in the Strait just gave sonar/detection stocks like these and $KRKNF the biggest tailwind of the decade. Warfare in Venezulea focused more on drones like $AVAV and never really went underwater. So this is probably one of the first times everyone sees the applications now + leads to more sector inflows, even if TAM didn't exactly increase too much.
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认为对韩国和台积电供应链的扰动被夸大
任何扰动都不会是好事。 不过，其对韩国供应链或台湾的 $TSM 的影响大多被夸大了。 美国政策的核心是压低油价。 而伊朗唯一的生存机会，就是让能源 / 油价极端上涨，逼美国后退。 我永远会把赌注押在美国政策上。
英文原文
Any disruption is never a positive thing. However the effect to which the supply chains in Korea or $TSM in Taiwan are largely overblown. US policy focuses around lowering oil prices. And Iran's only chance of survival is extreme increases in energy/oil prices, leading the US to back off. I would always put my money on US policy.
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伊朗霍尔木兹海峡布雷，推荐两只水下战争纯正标的$KRKNF和$CODA，均有优质基本面。
10分钟前来自Reuters的消息： 消息人士新确认伊朗已在霍尔木兹海峡部署了约十枚水雷。 我发现有两只水下 warfare（海上战争）股票很有意思，可以提供敞口。 $KRKNF 章鱼🦑和$CODA 水母。 $KRKNF：Kraken Robotics，Anduril（安杜里尔）的供应商，是海上战争领域最纯正的标的之一： 他们生产合成孔径声纳(SAS)和SeaPower电池，许多防务主承包商如Anduril都依赖这些。 Anduril最近在罗德岛开设了一家工厂，用于大规模生产UUV（无人水下航行器）（如Dive-LD和Ghost Shark）。 根据零售端BOM估算： - Dive-LD携带价值1M至2M加元的Kraken硬件 - Ghost Shark XL-AUV携带价值8M至10M加元。 如果Anduril实现量产：收入增长是可期的。 我不会基于收入预测来建模Kraken，而更像看Anduril能扩展到多大（类似于用$GOOGL的TPU来建模$LITE）。 但财务状况、资产：3.015亿美元，负债：6570万美元，总债务约2410万美元，看起来相当健康。毛利率59%的基础上实现60%的年度收入增长。 至于在海峡排雷，他们有KATFISH猎雷无人机。以及用于生成海底3D图像的SAS声纳，用于识别埋藏的水雷。 $CODA：Coda Octopus，基本上是伊朗布雷这一情境的纯正敞口。 他们的主要产品是Echoscope实时3D/4D/5D体积声纳，可在浑浊、漆黑的水中绘制静态和移动物体的图像。 这一技术延伸至其他产品如"NANO Gen Series"，即作为UUV感知传感器的Echoscope版本。 还有一个供潜水员使用的增强显示设备（SPECWAR已订购），基本上就是将Echoscope声纳数据反馈给人员。 CODA的资产负债表非常亮眼。最新FY2025报告（截至2025年10月），他们持有2870万美元的纯现金，且没有长期债务。 毛利率也非常高，综合毛利率66.5%，而大多数防务承包商只有10-20%。 2025年收入2660万美元，同比增长30.7%，净利润410万美元，能实现盈利实属难得。 基本上他们的声纳/探测产品组合对于这个具体情境来说是非常纯粹的标的，即使没有这个催化剂，基本面也非常扎实。 无论如何，伊朗在海峡布雷并不是一个重大的TAM（总可寻址市场）增加。 然而，它确实提醒投资者和政府，战争可能转向水下： 从而带来更多板块资金流入以及防务合同机会。 这些是我个人的两只最爱，既然发表了看法，也希望对其他人有帮助。
英文原文
Just in 10M ago from Reuters: New confirmation from sources that Iran has deployed about a dozen mines in the Strait of Hormuz. There's two very aquatic warfare stocks I found interesting for exposure. $KRKNF the Squid🦑and $CODA the Octopus. $KRKNF: Kraken Robotics, the Andruil supplier, is one of the more pure play stocks for the acquatic warfare sector: They build Synthetic Aperture Sonar (SAS) and SeaPower batteries that many defense primes like Andruil rely on. Anduril recently opened a facility in Rhode Island to mass produce UUVs (eg. Dive-LD and Ghost Shark). According to retail BOM estimates: - Dive-LD carries $1M to $2M CAD in Kraken hardware - Ghost Shark XL-AUV carries $8M to $10M CAD. If that Anduril ramps happens: the revenue ramp is there. I wouldn't try and model Kraken based off revenue projections but more like how much Andruil scales (similar modeling $LITE based on $GOOGL TPU) But financials, assets: $301.5M, Liabilities: $65.7M, Total debt: ~$24.1M so looks pretty healthy. 60% YoY revenue growth off 59% gross margins. As for demining the strait, they have the KATFISH mine-hunting drone. And SAS Sonar for 3D images of the seafloor for identifying buried mines. $CODA: Coda Octopus, basically pure play exposure to Iran placing mines. Their main product is Echoscope real-time 3D/4D/5D volumetric sonar that maps static and moving objects in murky, pitch-black water. This carries forward to other products like "NANO Gen Series", Echoscope version as a perception sensor for UUVs. And then a diver augmented display (that SPECWAR ordered), which is basically the Echoscope sonar feeding people data. CODA has an amazing balance sheet. Recent FY2025 report (ending Oct 2025), they hold $28.7 million in pure cash and have zero long-term debt. Gross margins are extremely high as well, consolidated gross margin of 66.5% while majority of defense contracotrs sit around 10-20%. $26.6M revenue for 2025, 30.7% Y/Y increase, and $4.1M net income, which is rare to be profitable. But basically their product set of sonar / detection looks perfect pure play for this exact scenario and they’re fundamentally very sound, without the catalyst. Regardless, Iran mining the straight isn't exactly a major TAM increase. However, it does alert investors and the government that warfare may transition underwater: Leading to more sector inflows as well as defense contract opportunities. These were my two favorites personally, just publishing my thoughts here in case other's find this helpful.
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解释 ClickHouse 其实是 Nebius 内部项目分拆
@offermemoneyXYZ ClickHouse 其实原本是 Nebius 旗下的内部项目，后来才分拆成独立公司。 $NBIS 持有 ClickHouse 约 25% 股份，按 150 亿美元估值计算，这个市值后面大概率还会往更高走，至少要到它可能 IPO 之前。
英文原文
@offermemoneyXYZ Clickhouse was actually an internal project run by Nebius, but it spun off as an independent company. $NBIS owns ~25% of Clickhouse at $15B valuation, and that MC is likely go up lots higher up until their possible ipo.
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调侃 IQE 涨太多了需要休息
@ryansfinance $IQE 从上个月开始已经涨了 136% 了，哈哈，有时候确实得歇一歇。 不是我所有的票都能像 $AAOI 或 $AXTI 那样每天直线往上冲 8%。
英文原文
@ryansfinance $IQE is literally up 136% since last month lol, sometimes things need a break. Not all my picks like $AAOI or $AXTI can go in a vertical line up 8% a day. https://t.co/lxJqKT5b5e
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认为 Soitec 因光子垄断继续大涨只是开始
看来市场确实喜欢隐藏的光子垄断？ Soitec 盘中又涨了 16%。 如果你看 $NVDA 主导的 CPO 光子架构起量：这几乎是抛物线式的。 $SOI 很可能会成为一只可以拿很多年的票，因为它是 CPO 的衬底垄断者。 而且最重要的是，下周还有即将到来的 $NVDA GTC 发布会。 这大概率会提醒机构去寻找他们错过的玩家，比如 $AXTI，现在再加上 $SOI。
英文原文
Turns out markets like hidden photonics monopolies? Soitec is up 16% intraday. If you look at the CPO photonics architectural ramp led by $NVDA: It’s parabolic. $SOI is likely a name that people can hold for many years as the substrate monopoly for CPO. And best of yet, there’s the upcoming $NVDA GTC announcement next week. Which would likely signal to institutions to start looking into players they missed like $AXTI, and now $SOI.
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继续看多 HIMS 的商业化潜力与空头挤压
$HIMS 现在又涨回了 14.22%。 他们全球 DTC 零售分发护城河中尚未释放的潜在收入极其惊人。 这也让人联想到 $META 早期的并购，以及 $HOOD 的交叉销售能力。 $HIMS 仍然比 70 多美元的高点低不少，但它已经通过收购三家全球主要竞争对手，而且几乎没有监管阻力。 更妙的是：那些把 40%+ 流通盘方向性做空的空头，已经被 $NVO 的意外合作和诉讼终止彻底困住了。 我个人会在这里继续持有并做多 HIMS。 如果管理层真能把这张全球零售分发网络有效变现，用在医疗上，这个风险回报是值得的。
英文原文
$HIMS is now back up 14.22%. The untapped latent revenue from their their global DTC retail distribution moat is extreme. And draws parallels to the early acquisitions from $META. As well as the cross-selling capabilities of $HOOD. $HIMS is still down from it's $70+ highs, after acquiring three major global competitors without regulatory friction. And best of yet: Shorts that sold 40%+ of the company short directionally, are completely trapped from the surprising $NVO partnership + lawsuit termination. I would personally hold and go long here on HIMS. The risk/reward on management effectively monetizing that massive, global retail distribution network for healthcare seems worth it.
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认为 Nvidia 对 Nebius 的 20 亿投资是极强信号
@beauty_oe 考虑到 $NBIS 的市值，$NVDA 投入 20 亿美元是一个极其巨大的动作，也足以成为他们未来成长的超强信号！ Nebius 是我最喜欢的长期标的之一，用来押注 AI 未来的敞口。
英文原文
@beauty_oe $NBIS の時価総額を考えると $NVDA による20億ドルの投資はとてつもなく大きく、彼らの今後の成長を裏付ける超強力なシグナルだ！Nebiusは、AIの未来にエクスポージャーを取るための長期銘柄として一番のお気に入り
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认为 Nebius 是下一家 AWS 级超大规模云
最新消息：Nvidia 向 $NBIS 投资了 20 亿美元。 我确信 Nebius 终将成为下一家 Amazon 级别的超大规模云。 因为它其实是 5 家业务的组合，而且这些业务的部分总和都在以三位数同比增长： - Nebius：AI Cloud，7 到 90 亿美元 ARR，正朝着下一个 AWS 发展 - ClickHouse：支撑大多数财富 500 强公司的数据库，上一轮估值 150 亿美元 - Avride：Robotaxi 和 FSD-4 级技术，现在正和 Uber 一起实车放量 - Toloka：数据标注平台，得到了 Jeff Bezos 的资金支持，也被 $AMZN 使用 - TripleTen：教育平台，虽然没那么性感，但增长也很快 另外还有像 SWE-rebench 这类广泛使用的 benchmark 之类的 side quests。 Jensen 对 Nebius 的 $NVDA 投资表达的也是同一个意思：Nebius 站在 AI 前沿，正引领浪潮去满足不断增长的算力需求。
英文原文
Just in: Nvidia has invested $2B into $NBIS. I'm convinced Nebius is the next Amazon-level hyperscaler over time. As they're 5 companies all growing sum-of-parts triple digits Y/Y: - Nebius: $7-9B ARR from AI Cloud as the next AWS. - Clickhouse: DB powering majority of fortune 500 companies, last valuation at $15B - Avride: Robotaxi and FSD-4 level technology, now scaling up live with Uber. - Toloka: Data Labeling platform, funded by Jeff Bezos and used by $AMZN - TripleTen: Education platform, not as sexy as the rest, but still fast growing. With sidequests from the widely used benchmarks like SWE-rebench. Jensen's $NVDA investment into Nebius shares the same sentiment: Nebius is at the forefront of AI and leading the wave to meet the growing demand for compute.
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确认 Nebius 终于开始重新估值
@daniel_koss 对，$NBIS 终于重新估值了。
英文原文
@daniel_koss Yep, finally $NBIS has retuned. https://t.co/ZcqUmavnja
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解释 Soitec 在光子 SOI 上的授权收入逻辑
你看到的那部分来自亚洲玩家，比如信越化学。他们都从 Soitec 那里拿了光子 SOI 的授权。 Soitec 并不是制造 100% 的晶圆，但它能从几乎 100% 的晶圆里拿到收入。 这就是你问 ChatGPT 时它经常漏掉的细节，因为 Soitec 在 CPO 领域是真正的垄断者。
英文原文
The other % come you’re looking at from Asian players like Shin Etsu. All license from Soitec for photonics SOI. Soitec don’t manufacture 100% of the wafers but they derive revenue from near 100% of them. That’s the nuance ChatGPT misses when you ask, because Soitec is a genuine monopoly in the cpo space.
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认为 AXTI 才是最接近 Soitec 的对标
@brener_moshe 完全不同。 Soitec 最接近的对标其实是 $AXTI。
英文原文
@brener_moshe Way way different. Closest comparison to Soitec is $AXTI
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批评对 Soitec 的估值与 CPO 分析太差
@VJNCapital 这大概是我迄今为止读过最离谱的分析，恭喜你。 你把股价变动都算错了，却拿这个去说市场已经定价；而且你还把下行周期里的历史收入增长拿来套一个面向未来的 CPO 起量项目。
英文原文
@VJNCapital This is perhaps the dumbest analysis I’ve read to date congrats. You got the stock price change wrong and used that to say the market has priced it in and looked at previous revenue growth during a downturn for a forward CPO ramp play.
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给出 Soitec 到 2027 年底可能涨 4 倍的个人预测
@WaterJunkieCat 到 2027 年底，我个人对 Soitec 的预测大概是 400%。
英文原文
@WaterJunkieCat Late 2027 maybe 400% is my personal projection for Soitec.
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用“选孩子”比喻 AXTI 与 SLOIF 的偏好
@afgmantu 让我要在 $AXTI 和 $SLOIF 之间选一个，跟问我两个孩子里你更喜欢谁没什么区别。
英文原文
@afgmantu Making me choose between $AXTI and $SLOIF is the same thing as asking, who’s your favorite kid? if you had two
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称赞 Soitec 的供应链信息图
@Blinklebloop Soitec 在供应链中的位置图做得很棒。
英文原文
@Blinklebloop Great infographic on Soitech’s position in the supply chain
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高信念看多 Soitec，认为下行有限且上行巨大
@B38B37 我对 Soitec 还是高信念。 从这里看，我觉得下行风险不大，而来自 CPO 的上行空间非常大。 现在就是等一等，但感觉几乎是必然的。
英文原文
@B38B37 High conviction with Soitec, don’t see much downside risk from here and upside from CPO is massive. It’s just a waiting game but feels inevitable
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改变看法买入Soitec，认为CPO垄断地位叠加NVDA催化剂有望带来3倍回报。
改变了对Soitec ($SLOIF)的看法，建了一个约43美元的大仓位以获取CPO（共封装光学）敞口。 $NVDA下周GTC大会是推动光子学及这一架构的最大催化剂。 市值约15亿欧元，以1倍账面价值和约2倍市销率交易（估值非常低迷）。 在CPO基板方面拥有真正的垄断地位（光子学通常享有很高的溢价估值，垄断地位更是额外溢价）。 算法和分析师可能会对市场份额感到困惑，但在SOI基板上这实际上是垄断——他们授权给其他厂商如Shin Etsu是为了多样化，例如$TSM不喜欢只有一家供应商。 我不认为机构会等到明年才提前布局像Soitec这样的名字，或者$TSEM（而且大多数人甚至还没听说过$AXTI这样的名字）。 这个时机是在买入智能手机周期低迷阶段的可能底部，同时获得CPO在2027年中后期的全部上涨空间，加上下周$NVDA GTC催化剂。 我个人认为从这里还有3倍空间，所以我做多了。
英文原文
Changed my mind about Soitec ( $SLOIF ) and took a sizable position ~43 for CPO exposure. $NVDA GTC next week biggest catalyst pushing photonics and this architecture. ~1.5B euros MC. Trading at 1x book value and ~2x P/S (very depressed valuations) Genuine monopoly over substrates side for CPO (typically very premium valuations for photonics + even extra premium for monopoly status) Algos and analysts might get confused over market share but it’s an actual monopoly over SOI substrates since they give licenses to other players like Shin Etsu for diversification sake eg. $TSM doesn’t like just 1. I don’t think institutions will wait until next year to frontrun these names like Soitec or $TSEM (and most probably haven’t even heard of these names like $AXTI yet) This timing would be buying the likely bottom of the depressed smartphone cycle, while getting full upside of CPO mid-late 2027 + $NVDA GTC catalyst next week. I personally think it’s a 3x from here so I went long.
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自嘲没及时切换思路导致回报缩水
@matheorbt_ 现在只剩 400% 了，因为我没能足够快地切换思路，没能提前抢在五角大楼龙虾和螃蟹瓶颈之前布局。
英文原文
@matheorbt_ It’s down to 400% now because I didn’t pivot fast enough and frontrun the pentagon lobster and crab bottlenecks
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用五角大楼海鲜采购解释食品分销链受益者
五角大楼买了价值 200 万美元的阿拉斯加帝王蟹，还在 9 月用纳税人的钱买了 690 万美元的龙虾尾。 如果你的第一反应跟我一样是： 我怎么从政府超支买帝王蟹和龙虾里赚钱？ 答案如下： $SYY - 它们和美国政府有数百万美元级别的大型 DLA 合同，所以当政府要订购数百万美元的帝王蟹或龙虾并完成配送时，它们是主要受益者。 $USFD - 美国第二大 broadline 分销商。USFD 也会竞标机构和政府合同，吸收掉政府在帝王蟹和龙虾这类昂贵海鲜上的超额预算。 $PFGC - 另一家体量很大的分销商，也会与机构和政府供应合同竞争，争取帝王蟹和龙虾相关订单。 要从五角大楼对海鲜和牛排的口味中获利，你得投那些负责把食物运过去的瓶颈环节。 上面这三家就是最大受益者，而四季度里龙虾和帝王蟹的支出应该会体现在它们的财报里。
英文原文
The Pentagon purchased $2M worth of Alaskan king crab. As well as $6.9M worth of lobster tails with taxpayer funds in September If your first thought like me was: How do I profit off of government overspending on king crab and lobsters? Here’s how: $SYY - They hold massive, multi-million dollar DLA contracts with the US Gov, so when they need to order millions in king crab or lobster delivered, they’re the large beneficiary. $USFD - The second-largest U.S. broadline distributor. USFD also bids on institutional and government contracts, absorbing the overflow of massive government food budgets for expensive crab and lobsters. $PFGC - Another massive distributor that competes for institutional government and supply contracts for crab and lobster. To profit from the Pentagon's taste in seafood and steak, you have to invest in the chokepoints that transport the food. The three above are the largest beneficiaries and the spend in q4 from lobster and crab should show up in their earnings.
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说还有新名字，会继续找底部标的
@Kyrentz 还有几个新的，我今天晚些时候会发一个已经见底的名字。 不过像我之前提过的 $AAOI 这种票，大概率还有很长的路要走。
英文原文
@Kyrentz There’s a few new ones, I’ll post a name later today that’s bottomed. But things like $AAOI that I’ve mentioned likely have a long way to go
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祝贺别人抓到 ALM
@melikesmoney 嗯，我本来应该把这份清单也买进去…… 我自己的组合里最后没买 $ALM，不过如果你买了的话，恭喜。
英文原文
@melikesmoney Yeah I should have bought this list… Didn’t end up buying $ALM in my portfolio but congrats if you had it. https://t.co/e2VwSVVPk1
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拿反向 Cramer ETF 开玩笑
@Ren_aramb 没错，反向 Cramer ETF 三年涨了 180%，这成绩真的很夸张。
英文原文
@Ren_aramb True, the inverse Cramer ETF is up 180% in 3 years, which is very impressive. https://t.co/UJu6h9h8LQ