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强调自己对 RPI 的收入预测被验证，市场随后上修增长预期。
兄弟，这也太离谱了……大家都在质疑我 $RPI，还叫它 “Meme Stock”？？ 我明明预测了 48-55% 的前瞻营收增长，而且是拿基本面支撑的。 可分析师都在说 14-17%，新闻媒体都在喊 “Meme Stock”？？ 结果财报后他们把 $RPI 的同比增长预期上调到了 58%。 完全命中，和 $AXTI 一样被验证了。 尤其是我还预测了行业会有 3-4 倍增长。 现在 $RPI 大约是 19 倍到 23.8 倍前瞻市盈率，而收入加速来自 OpenClaw。
英文原文
Bruh wtf... Everyone was doubting me on $RPI, calling it a "Meme Stock"??? I literally projected 48-55% forward revenue growth and backed it up with fundamentals. While all the analysts were saying 14-17% and news outlets were saying "Meme Stock"?? And they updated $RPI to 58% projected Y/Y growth after earnings. Spot on and vindicated like $AXTI. Especially when I projected 3-4X industry growth estimates. Now $RPI is at ~19x-23.8x fwd p/e, with revenue acceleration due to OpenClaw.
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复盘自己最早关于 RPI / OpenClaw 的预测，以及分析师上修后股价反应。
我最早关于 $RPI 和 OpenClaw 垂直整合的帖子： “但如果需求流入继续，我们可能会看到营收从 14% 增长提高到 48-55% 的温和水平，只要囤货持续。” $RPI 新的分析师预测： 券商把 2026 年 $RPI 的预测从 3.6 亿美元上调到 5.11 亿美元，意味着同比增长 58%。 …… 媒体把我 thesis 里的“meme stock” $RPI，在预测上修后又涨了 27%。
英文原文
My original post on $RPI and OpenClaw vertaim: "But if the demand influx continues, we might see revenue numbers might hit increase from 14% growth to a modest 48-55% if hoarding continues." $RPI New Analyst Projections: The broker raised its 2026 $RPI forecast to $511 million from $360 million, implying 58% year-on-year growth. .... The media labeled "Meme Stock" $RPI from my thesis is up 27% on the projections beat.
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怀疑 Innolight 并不知情，自己只是对这份名单感到困惑。
@kPkKUB 我不觉得 Innolight 会知道，除非 Mirae 拿到了非公开信息。 这就是为什么我说我对这份名单感到困惑。
英文原文
@kPkKUB I don't think Innolight does unless Mirae obtained nonpublic information. That's why I said I was confused by this list.
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认为若 CPO 在 2026 年下半年到来，自己会继续持有 SIVE。
为什么每个 ticker 都有人一直问我同一个问题。 如果 CPO 的拐点会在 2026 年下半年到来，那我会继续拿着 $SIVE，因为我是在提前布局下一轮光子学变化。 考虑到它只有 2.8 亿美元市值，$AVGO 明天就能把它的光子业务 / IP 买下来，从而控制 $MRVL 的光子路线图……所以我个人除了稀释之外，几乎看不到多少下行风险。
英文原文
Why do people keep asking me this for every single ticker. If CPO inflection is coming in late 2026, I'm holding $SIVE, since I'm frontrunning the next photonics shift. Given it's a $280M MC, $AVGO can just buy their photonics division/IP tomorrow and control $MRVL's photonics roadmap... so I personally don't see much downside risk aside from dilution.
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列出几个关键瓶颈点，认为 VNP 最接近西方版 AXTI。
是的，我花了很多时间把这个图整理出来。 瓶颈 1：$VNP 可能是西方世界里最接近 $AXTI 的单一瓶颈，但在镓、铟、砷等材料上，它还达不到同样的规模。 瓶颈 2：pBN 坩埚，也许是 Shin-Etsu Chemical？ 瓶颈 3：第二层可能是 Sumitomo / $COHR。
英文原文
Yep, I spent a lot of time making this on the chart. Chokepoint 1: $VNP is probably the closest you get to $AXTI in the West for one chokepoint, but nothing to the same scale for (gallium, indium, arsenic, etc. ) Chokepoint 2: pBN Crucibles, maybe Shin-Etsu Chemical? Chokepoint 3: Sumitomo / $COHR for the second.
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认为如果 Shkreli 加入董事会，AXTI 可能会是 100 亿美元公司。
如果 Marin Shkreli 加入 $AXTI 董事会，我觉得它可能会成为一家 100 亿美元以上的公司。 否则的话，我觉得它在这个位置算是比较合理定价，但我个人还是持有的。 它在光子学上对 AI 行业拥有一个垄断性的瓶颈。问题更多是他们会不会通过提价把这种优势武器化？ 考虑到宏观环境，CSP 里卖看跌期权、选低执行价总是个不错的进场方式。
英文原文
If Marin Shkreli joined the board of $AXTI, I think it could be a $10B+ company. Otherwise, it's fairly valued I think around these levels, but I'm personally holding. They own a monopolistic chokepoint over the AI industry with photonics. It's more of a matter of they weaponize it or not with price hikes? Given macro climate, entry via CSP is always a good idea at lower strikes.
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用类比解释 AXT 的供应链位置，反驳把不同环节混为一谈的说法。
我应该不是唯一一个在想这个的人……对吧？ 这样的类比能帮助普通人更理解 $AXTI，因为这件事非常复杂。 外面有太多错误信息了，比如说三星新的晶圆代工在和 $AXTI 竞争，或者 $LITE 新的 InP 产能在和 $AXTI 竞争…… 它们都只是供应链的不同环节。 而 AXT 处在整个链条的最上游，上游中的最上游。
英文原文
I couldn't have been the only one thinking about it... right? Analogies like these help regulars understand $AXTI more since it's very nuanced. There's just tons of disinformation out there like Samsung's new foundry is competing with $AXTI.. or $LITE new inp capacity competing with $AXTI.. They're all different parts of the supply chain. And AXT is the very very very top of it.
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把 AXT 比作霍尔木兹海峡，强调其在 InP 供应链中的关键卡口地位。
“AXTI 海峡”来了： 全球 20% 的原油总供应都要经过霍尔木兹海峡。 它是全球能源贸易中最关键的单一咽喉点。 现在……如果把这个概念放大两倍，把 $LITE 和 $GOOGL 当成接受方，而不是韩国 / 日本呢？ 欢迎来到 $AXTI。 他们控制着 40% 的 InP 供应链。 无论是原材料还是加工环节。两个彼此独立的瓶颈（可以把它想成伊朗先产油，再通过海峡运输出去）。 所以，如果你把霍尔木兹石油瓶颈的咽喉点再乘 2 倍（但放到 AI 行业的光子学层面，而不是国家经济层面）： 你就会突然意识到 AXT 在光子学市场里的咽喉地位（以及中国的咽喉地位）。 当前估值来自它的战略控制力。而真正的价值在于，AXT 通过提价去行使这种控制力： 因为光子学支撑的 AI 建设，在规模化上没有别的选择。
英文原文
Introducing the Strait of $AXTI: 20% of the world's total global oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. It is the single most critical chokepoint in the global energy trade. Now... Double That with $LITE and $GOOGL instead of South Korea/Japan as recipients? Welcome to $AXTI. They control 40% of the InP supply chain. Both in the raw materials and processing. Two separate different bottlenecks (think of Iran producing oil, then shipping it through the Strait). So, if you 2x the chokepoint with the Hormuz oil bottleneck (but on AI industry level for photonics, instead of Country economies): You suddenly realize AXT's chokepoint (and China) on the photonics market. The current valuation is derived from strategic control. Then the main value comes when AXT exerts its control with price hikes: Since the AI buildout with photonics has no other choice at scale.
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呼吁先把稀土供应链补齐，不要本末倒置。
我们能不能……先把稀土供应链搞定，再做别的？ 为什么我们能花几十亿美元在迈阿密的玻璃塔楼上？ 却不能补贴我们最重要的 AI、机器人和太空上游稀土供应链…… 而这些链条完全依赖中国 / 俄罗斯？ 我们连一些最关键瓶颈的国内大规模加工都没有，比如从人形机器人机体到 AI 应用所需的铟 / 锗 / 镓。 只挑几只像 $MP 到 $USAR 这样的票然后说“我们做了点事”，远远不够。 稀土瓶颈是中国给美国埋的一个定时炸弹。 美国的优先级完全搞反了。
英文原文
Can we please… just secure our rare earths supply chains first before we do this? How are we able to spend billions on glass towers in Miami? But not subsidize all our most important AI, Robotics, and Space rare earth upstream supply chains… That are entirely dependent on China/Russia? We literally have no domestic processing at scale for some of the most vital chokepoints from Humanoids bodies to indium/germanium/gallium for AI applications. Picking a few like $MP to $USAR and saying “we did something” is not enough. The Rare Earths chokepoint is a ticking time bomb that China set over the US. America has its prioritizes completely wrong
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调侃特朗普会不会再次导致海峡重开和市场剧烈波动。
“特朗普告诉助手，他愿意在不重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的情况下结束战争” 美国指数已经上涨了，但在实时交易里，KOSPI（-3.55%）和日经（-0.85%）还是跌的。 这就变成了： “全球能源危机” -> 🌮 -> “全球能源危机” -> 🌮。 我觉得现在任何靠公开信息交易的人，都已经不知道发生了什么了……
英文原文
“Trump Tells Aides He's Willing to End War Without Reopening Hormuz" US indexes have shot up ON, but KOSPI (-3.55%) and Nikkei (-.85%) trading live are still down. It goes from: "Global Energy Crisis" -> 🌮 -> "Global Energy Crisis" -> 🌮. I don't think anyone trading with public knowledge knows what's going on anymore...
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主张与其烧昂贵导弹，不如更多投入定向能武器。
或者……与其把几十亿美元花在“更便宜的导弹”上。 毕竟现在用 300 到 400 万美元的爱国者导弹去打便宜无人机，根本不奏效。 我们是不是该更多研究并部署像 $LASR 和 HPM 这样的定向能武器？ 用 HEL（高能激光）的话： 它就是一束光……砰砰。每发 3.5 美元。 用 HPM（高功率微波）的话——它是一道能量锥，用来打无人机蜂群。 也许每次脉冲 0.05 美元左右？弹药基本等于无限。 虽然 $LMT 和 $RTX 也在做这些，但感觉我们只是一直在买昂贵导弹去给它们送钱。 如果把原本花在导弹上的数十亿美元，转去资助这类无限弹药的新技术…… 也许早就能把定向能武器做得更成熟了（比如解决驻留时间、天气变化、射程、功率这些问题）。 在伊朗这种延长冲突里，用几十亿美元的导弹去打便宜无人机，显然不可持续。
英文原文
Or... instead of spending billions on "cheaper missiles". Since blowing $3-4M Patriots to down cheap drones isn't working. We start to do more research and deploy Energy Directed Weapons like $LASR and HPM? With HEL (High Energy Lasers): It's a beam of light... pew pew. $3.50 per shot. With HPM (High Powered Microwaves) - It's a cone of energy for drone swarms. Maybe ~$0.05 per burst? Ammo is basically free and infinite. Even though $LMT and $RTX are developing these too... it's like we just keep buying expensive missiles to line their pockets at this point. More funding around this infinite ammo new tech, instead used for all those missiles... Probably could have made energy weapons better by now (eg. fixing problems with dwell time, weather changes, range, power). Firing billions of dollars of missiles at cheap drones clearly is not sustainable for extended conflicts in Iran.
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表示自己只是做高层分析，不想把整条光子链讲得太细。
@swisssong 不客气。我觉得大家应该把这份分析当成非常高层次的理解，而不是对整个行业的深度拆解。 我也不太明白 Mirae 怎么漏掉了从 $MTSI 到 Luxnet 这么多名字……
英文原文
@swisssong Anytime. I think people should treat the analysis as extremely high level, not a deep dive into the industry. I'm not quite sure how Mirae missed so many names from $MTSI to Luxnet...
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只有两个字：买英伟达看跌。
@miraclemaster07 $NVDA 看跌期权。
英文原文
@miraclemaster07 $NVDA puts
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只是举了一个机器人供应链的例子。
@RonDeSantis 这只是机器人供应链的一个例子：
英文原文
@RonDeSantis This is just one example for the robotics supply chain: https://t.co/ALmJSwnZ4L
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整理Mirae Asset的CPO价值链全图，涵盖激光源到EDA各环节上市公司
来自Mirae Asset的CPO价值链概览： 激光源： Coherent < $COHR > Lumentum < $LITE > Furukawa Electric (TYO: 5801) Yuanjie Semiconductor (SHA: 688498) Innolight Technology / 中际旭创 (SZSE: 300308) PIC代工： TSMC < $TSM > GlobalFoundries $GFS Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930) Tower Semiconductor < $TSEM > EIC、驱动IC： Broadcom < $AVGO > Marvell < $MRVL > NVIDIA < $NVDA > ELS、光引擎： Innolight / 中际旭创 (SZSE: 300308) TFC / 苏州天孚光通信 (SZSE: 300394) O-Net Technologies Eoptolink Technology (SZSE: 300502) FAU（光纤阵列单元）： Senko Advanced Components（私企） Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) TFC (SZSE: 300394) FOCI Fiber Optic Communications (TWO: 3363) FAU、对准工具： ficonTEC（私企） All Ring Tech (TWO: 6187) ADST（私企） FAU、引擎组装： Fabrinet < $FN > Hon Hai / Foxconn (TWSE: 2317) ASE Technology < $ASX > FOCI (TWO: 3363) OSAT、先进封装： ASE Technology < $ASX > Amkor < $AMKR > Kyocera (TYO: 6971) Powertech / PTI (TWSE: 6239) Shinko Electric (TYO: 6967) Fabrinet < $FN > 连接器、套管： Senko Advanced Components（私企） Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) US Conec（私企） T&S Communications (SZSE: 300570) Molex（私企） Browave (TWO: 3163) 光纤： Corning < $GLW > Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) Nittobo / 日东纺绩 (TYO: 3110) 电/光测试： Keysight < $KEYS > Teradyne < $TER > FormFactor < $FORM > Chroma ATE (TWSE: 2360) Multilane（私企） 交换、系统： NVIDIA < $NVDA > Broadcom < $AVGO > Marvell < $MRVL > Google < $GOOGL > EDA： Synopsys < $SNPS > Cadence < $CDNS > Ansys < $ANSS > 对这些名单中的一些名称感到困惑，他们可能混淆了一些公司，比如把Innolight和激光源公司（如$MTSI、Sumitomo、$SIVE、Luxnet）与实际终端模块混在一起了（除非有什么非公开材料或者我遗漏了）。 但对于对这个领域感兴趣的人来说，这是一个很好的高层概览。 （该推文引用了 @aleabitoreddit 的推文，引用内容仅供理解语境）: CPO领域Mirae分析师笔记： 规模化方向： CPO ASIC：$AVGO、$MRVL 光收发器：$COHR、$LITE、中际旭创 DSP/PAM4：$AVGO、$MRVL 相干DCI：$CIEN、$NOK OCS设备：iPronics、Polatis 光缆/光纤：$GLW、Prysmian、Furukawa HCF：$LITE、OFS DCI相干：Ciena、Nokia、Huawei 光放大器：$LITE、$COHR OCS网关：KDDI 规模提升方向： SiPh代工：imec、$GFS、$TSM SiPh调制器：$NVDA（内部MRM）、$INTC ELS：NTT、Furukawa、$LITE、$COHR 太赫兹互连：研发阶段？ CPO测试："新玩家进入增加" 微透镜/光学系统："新玩家进入增加" TLDR：规模提升的CPO即将到来。我认为分析师笔记遗漏了一堆上游公司名称，并把ELS和光源混为一谈了。 但对于了解他们认为谁是领先玩家来说，这是个很好的高层概览。
英文原文
CPO Value Chain Summary from Mirae Asset: Laser Source: Coherent < $COHR > Lumentum < $LITE > Furukawa Electric (TYO: 5801) Yuanjie Semiconductor (SHA: 688498) Innolight Technology / Zhongji Innolight (SZSE: 300308) PIC Foundry: TSMC < $TSM > GlobalFoundries $GFS Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930) Tower Semiconductor < $TSEM> EIC, Driver IC: Broadcom < $AVGO > Marvell < $MRVL > NVIDIA < $NVDA > ELS, Optical Engine Innolight / Zhongji Innolight (SZSE: 300308) TFC / Suzhou TFC Optical Communication (SZSE: 300394) O-Net Technologies Eoptolink Technology (SZSE: 300502) FAU (Fiber Array Unit): Senko Advanced Components (Private) Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) TFC (SZSE: 300394) FOCI Fiber Optic Communications (TWO: 3363) FAU, Align Tools: ficonTEC (Private) All Ring Tech (TWO: 6187) ADST (Private) FAU, Engine Assembly: Fabrinet < $FN > Hon Hai / Foxconn (TWSE: 2317) ASE Technology < $ASX > FOCI (TWO: 3363) OSAT, Advanced Packaging: ASE Technology < $ASX > Amkor < $AMKR > Kyocera (TYO: 6971) Powertech / PTI (TWSE: 6239) Shinko Electric (TYO: 6967) Fabrinet < $FN > Connector, Ferrule: Senko Advanced Components (Private) Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) US Conec (Private) T&S Communications (SZSE: 300570) Molex (Private) Browave (TWO: 3163) Fiber: Corning < $GLW > Sumitomo Electric (TYO: 5802) Nittobo / Nitto Boseki (TYO: 3110) E/O Testing: Keysight < $KEYS > Teradyne < $TER > FormFactor < $FORM > Chroma ATE (TWSE: 2360) Multilane (Private) Switch, System: NVIDIA < $NVDA > Broadcom < $AVGO > Marvell < $MRVL > Google < $GOOGL> EDA: Synopsys < $SNPS > Cadence < $CDNS > Ansys < $ANSS > Confused by some of names of the list, they might have conflated a few names like Innolight with laser source like $MTSI, Sumitomo, $SIVE, Luxnet, with the actual end module (unless there's something that's not public material or I missed)? But just for people interested in the landscape, this is a good high-level overview.
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AI数据中心供应链严重依赖亚洲，中东冲突加剧流动性风险，稀土应成美国国安优先事项
Hi Ron，这个话题分为两个不同的部分： 1. 超大规模云服务商（$ORCL、$META、$AMZN）：他们的支出超过了盈利水平（$GOOGL 是罕见的例外，而 $AAPL 相对而言支出并不多）。 因此市场担心这并没有转化为实质性的收入。 尤其是像 Oracle 这样负债累累的公司，降息是使其稍微可持续的重要因素（如果你看债务利息，数目非常庞大），而降息既能推动产能扩张，也能带来实质性的成本节省。 由于伊朗战争和原油价格上涨，原定2026年的降息预期已经落空。 雪上加霜的是，人们担心他们的 AI 数据中心建设供应链会中断。 如果你看看他们的 AI 数据中心部件产地： - 来自台湾 - 来自韩国 - 来自日本 这是一个全球化的供应链。 虽然美国看起来没问题，因为它在石油、液化天然气、氦气和其他半导体供应链所需的资源方面是绝缘的。 但我们的亚洲合作伙伴并不处于长期冲突中。 所以当你看到亚洲那些规模较小、专业化的公司时，它们正在苦苦挣扎。 这种影响会层层放大，一直传导到终端的亚马逊网络服务 AI 数据中心（成本上升、供应短缺）。 2. AI 整体而言：投资者对此非常乐观。 问题在于实现路径，而美国在表面上看起来被中国卡住了。 - 美国投入过多，而中国和其他国家正在蒸馏我们的最新模型（需要 KYC 端点管控），坐享其成。 - 随着 AI 项目的规模扩大，它正变得越来越依赖中国公司。 我认为这是因为美国缺乏稀土，这应该成为我们的头号国家安全优先事项。 这是制造新一代 AI 硬件、机器人供应链和太空探索所需的。 这些资源都由中国和俄罗斯控制。即使是领先的"西方"公司，我已发现它们仍然主要依赖中国/俄罗斯。 这是我们确保前沿项目安全最大的漏洞之一。 如果你看光子学（AI 硬件如何通过光加速），我们没有西方的供应链来满足需求。主要材料来源是中国的 $AXTI 和中国的 Vital 两家公司，然后流转到日本或其他公司，最后进入美国。 如果你看我们的人形机器人项目（我们如何将 AI 带入现实世界），$TSLA Optimus 的所有躯体都是在中国制造的。 美国供应链缺乏制造这些组件所需的稀土，因为成本太高。 3. 中东地区的冲突 近期下跌的一个重要原因是流动性问题。我们在阿联酋、中东的合作伙伴主要在为私募市场提供资金（想想 OpenAI），他们大量的支出流向 AI 市场。 他们也是从 Meta 到微软等科技七巨头最大的投资者之一。 如果他们的油田继续受到干扰，他们可能不得不从美国市场撤出流动性。 这既影响这些公司在 AI 上的支出能力，也会导致美国市场的抛售下跌。 如果有takeaway（要点）的话：请把稀土列为美国头号国家安全优先事项。特朗普总统已经投资了 $USAR、$MP 和几个单独的公司。 但还有许多更多至关重要的、尚未盈利的公司，它们对于制造 AI、自动驾驶汽车和机器人都是必需的。我们需要打破对中国/俄罗斯的依赖。
英文原文
Hi Ron, so there's two different parts to it: 1. Hyperscalers ( $ORCL, $META, $AMZN): They're spending more than they have with profit ( $GOOGL is the rare exception, and $AAPL isn't really spending much relatively). So markets are worried less worried it's translating into material revenue. Especially with companies like Oracle taking on immense amounts of debt, rate cuts were a large driving factor in why it's slightly more sustainable (if you look at debt interest, it's massive), and cutting rates drives both forward expansion and material amounts of savings. Due to the War in Iran, rising crude, former projections with cutting rates in 2026 are now gone. This is compounded that there are worries that their AI buildout supply chain gets disrupted. If you look at where their AI datacenter parts are made: - it comes from Taiwan - it comes from Korea - it comes from Japan It's global. While the US might look like it's fine, since it's insulated to Oil, LNG, helium, and others needed for the semiconductor supply chain. Our Asian partners are not in a long drawn out conflict. So when you look at companies in Asia that are more small and niche they are struggling. And this gets compounded tens of times until it reaches all the way down to the end Amazon Web Services AI datacenter (increased costs, lack of supply). 2. AI as a whole: Investors are very bullish on it. It's just how we get there, and America looks strangled by China optically. - America is spending way too much on it, with China and others distilling our latest models (need KYC endpoints), and reaping all the benefits. - As we scale our AI programs, it's becoming increasingly reliant on Chinese companies. I'd argue it's because America lacks the rare earths, which should be our #1 national security priority. This is needed to make new generations of AI hardware, robotic supply chains, and Space. They're all controlled by China and Russia. Even the leading "Western" companies, I've identified they're mainly relying on China/Russia still. And this is one of the biggest vulnerabilities in securing our frontier programs. If you look at photonics (how AI hardware is sped up by light), we no Western supply chain to fulfill our needs. It's $AXTI (in China), and Vital (in China) as the two main sources of materials needed to make them, that gets passed down to Japan, or other companies before they end up in US. If you look at our humanoid program (how we move AI to the real world), all the bodies of $TSLA Optimus are made in China. American supply chains lack the rare earths needed to make the components because it gets too expensive. 3. Disruption in the Middle East A large part of the recent drop is mainly due to liquidity. Our partners in the UAE, Middle East are largely funding private markets (think OpenAI) and a lot of their spend going to AI markets. They're also one of the biggest investors in Mag7 from Meta to Microsoft. If their oil fields continue getting disrupted they may have to pull out liquidity from US markets. This impacts both the amount of money these companies can spend on AI. As well as causing a drop in American markets from selling. If there's any takeway: Please make Rare Earths Amercia's #1 national security priority. President Trump already invested in $USAR, $MP, and a few individual names. But there are many more extremely critical, yet unprofitable companies that are needed to make AI, to self driving cars, to robotics. And we need to break our reliance on China / Russia.
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指出 IREN 的稀释压力远高于 Nebius。
你们觉得 $IREN 还要再摊 56.5 亿美元的稀释吗？ 如果你看多 Neocloud，真的很意外还有人没转去 $NBIS 或其他名字。 一个已经确认拿到 $NVDA 资金和机构可转债支持。 另一个则很可能在通过公开市场持续卖新股，从散户身上筹钱。 残酷的现实是： $IREN 根本无法在不靠这个的情况下把剩余产能变现。这不是“可选性”。 在挑选谁能带来股权升值时，财务结构的细微差别非常重要。 Nebius 的融资结构明显更好，这一点已经反映在年初至今的回报里了。
英文原文
Do you guys think there’s only $5,650,000,000 dilution to go with $IREN? Very surprising that people haven’t switched to $NBIS or other names if you’re long Neoclouds. One already has confirmed funding with $NVDA + convertibles from institutions. The other is likely actively selling new shares on the open market to get funding off retail shareholders. The sad reality is: $IREN simply cannot monetize the rest of their capacity without using that. It’s not “optionality”. Financial structure nuance matters when you’re choosing winners for equity appreciation. Nebius is clearly has the better financing structure and this is already showing up in YTD returns.
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说自己现在过得不太好。
@tcjimmyli 现在情况没那么好了。
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@tcjimmyli Not doing so well anymore https://t.co/oWiYp6c4bg
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简单回复叫对方哭。
@Ren_aramb 哭？
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@Ren_aramb cry?
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提醒市场很残酷，不要在地缘风险下过度加杠杆。
这市场太残酷了。 如果你的股票名字里没有 Win，比如某只晶圆代工…… 那大概率宏观因素会比个股基本面更重要，比如 $MU 和 $META。 只是提醒一下，这时候不要上杠杆，也不要不负责任地过度加仓。 尤其是如果有限地面入侵随时可能开始……这可能意味着冲突延长和供应链进一步受扰。
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This market is brutal. If your stock doesn’t have Win in its name like a certain foundry… More likely than not macro > individual stock fundamentals from $MU and $META. Just a good reminder not to margin or irresponsibly overleverage during this time. Especially as a limited ground invasion might begin anytime… this might foreshadow extended conflicts and potential supply chain disruption.
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说这是宏观和板块一起下跌。
@moxnq100 @AntonisProtop 两者都有，既是宏观下跌，也是板块回调。
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@moxnq100 @AntonisProtop It’s both macro and sector selloff.
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调侃如果不了解 AXTI，就说明你还没经历过它的大回撤。
@AntonisProtop 如果你以前没经历过 $AXTI 的 15-25% 日内回撤，你大概就是新来的。
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@AntonisProtop You must be new here with $AXTI if you haven’t experienced 15-25% daily drawdowns
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说 VCX 的走势已经验证了自己的判断。
嗯，这走势现在看起来真是验证了我的判断。 $VCX 在 4 天里从 425 -> 110 美元。 我想大多数人其实都预料到了……但我不太懂为什么散户会以为 SpaceX 在高点时值 34 万亿美元。
英文原文
Well this is aging well with $VCX. From $425 -> $110 in 4 days. Think majority of people expected it… but not sure why retail investors thought SpaceX should be valued at $34 trillion at the top. https://t.co/JHURpLJmmq
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认为即使大盘再跌，AAOI 也可能跑赢。
@Ungrate11057544 就算 $SPY、$MSFT、$AMZN 再跌 20%，我也还是觉得 $AAOI 会跑赢市场。
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@Ungrate11057544 Let's just say even if $SPY, $MSFT, $AMZN crashes another 20% I expect $AAOI to outperform the market.
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称自己刚在 84 美元附近买了 AAOI，觉得 66 亿市值太便宜。
@mi20483980476 我刚刚在大概 84 美元附近买了不少 $AAOI。对我来说，66 亿美元市值实在太便宜了，尤其是在他们有新的 5 亿美元战备资金的情况下。
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@mi20483980476 I personally bought a decent amount of $AAOI at ~$84 just now, $6.6B MC feels way too cheap for me, especially with their new $500m warchest.
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认为 AAOI 在宏观不利时也能跑赢，因供给瓶颈和客户会付费。
我其实对大盘是看空的。 不过像 $AAOI 这种个股，我觉得即使宏观环境不好也会跑赢。 如果大家都缺货——即便超大规模客户削减 capex，你在瓶颈环节里还是会遇到同样的问题。 而且光收发器在 BOM 里的占比其实不算其他东西那么高，比如内存，所以他们会愿意付钱。 一句话总结就是挺复杂，但我个人确实觉得 $AAOI 会跑赢宏观环境。
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I'm actually bearish on the market. However, there's some individual stocks like $AAOI that I expect to outperform despite macro climate. If you're sold out because nobody can make enough... even if hyperscalers cut back capex, you have the same problem in the bottleneck. Also BOM share of optical transceivers is actually not that much compared to others like memory, so they'd happily pay. TLDR pretty nuanced, but I do think $AAOI outpetforms macro climate personally.
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简单表示不是这样。
@peakybulls 绝对不是。它们只是更容易把波动放大。
英文原文
@peakybulls Definitely no. They just tend to add to the volatility.
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不喜欢 Jane Street 持有和自己一样的 AAOI，因为他们会放大波动。
这就是为什么我不喜欢 Jane Street 持有和我一样的 $AAOI。 他们是做波动交易的，尤其喜欢搞散户最爱的名字，然后触发止损和恐慌。 但如果你知道自己持有什么： 一家美国公司，6.69 十亿美元市值，做的是整条收发器供应链： 从激光 -> 设计 -> 组装。 如果 $MSFT、$AMZN、$ORCL 这些公司真的会把他们能买的都买了，那对我个人来说，这个价格简直是捡漏。 对高 beta 股票来说，入场前把 conviction 和仓位管理好特别重要。 否则你就会一遍又一遍地在底部割肉、在顶部追高。
英文原文
And... this is why I don't like Jane Street owning the same stocks I do like $AAOI. They trade volatility, especially with retail favorite names and trigger stop losses/panic. If you know what you own though: $6.69B for a US company that makes the entire transceiver supply chain: From Laser -> Design -> Assembly. With likely $MSFT, $AMZN, $ORCL buying anything they can make, is a steal for me personally. With high beta stocks, it's really important to build conviction and manage sizing correctly before entering a trade. Otherwise you'll end up capitulating the bottom and buying the top over and over.
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认为稀土对国家安全至关重要，媒体不该煽动公众反对。
是的，$MP 对国家安全至关重要。中国再次把稀土武器化来对付我们。 FT 和其他新闻媒体去煽动美国民众……这真是蠢到不行。 美国政府花钱去保障我们的供应链，让我们不再依赖俄罗斯和中国，这有什么问题吗？ 他们到底是不是傻？
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Yes $MP is paramount to national security. Again China has weaponized Rare Earths against us. It’s incredibly stupid for FT and other news outlets to go and get rile up the US population… At the US government spending to secure our supply chains??? So we don’t rely on Russia and China? Are they all stupid?
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批评 FT 对稀土投资的负面标题，认为这是正确的政策方向。
这是我看过 FT 最离谱的一条标题。 “美国在稀土交易中押注数十亿美元于未经验证的公司” 废话。 它们之所以“未经验证”，不就是因为我们什么都没有吗？ $USAR 到 $MP 都极其重要。 因为美国在 AI、机器人到太空所需的上游产能 / 炼厂上几乎什么都不拥有。我们依赖从加拿大到中国的其他国家。 这大概是特朗普政府最好的国内政策动作：资助这些没有盈利的项目。 目的就是确保美国供应链主权，而不是继续依赖俄罗斯和中国。 FT 这么写，感觉就是在故意激美国民众…… 他们明明是在通过措辞，抹黑那些真正能帮助美国独立的伟大努力。
英文原文
This is the most egregious headline I’ve read from FT. “US BETS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ON UNPROVEN GROUPS IN RARE EARTHS DEALS” No sht. Maybe they’re “unproven” since we have nothing?? $USAR to $MP are incredibly important. Since US rare earths supply is the #1 national security priority right now. The United States owns almost none of the upstream capacity/refineries for AI, Robotics, to Space, as we rely on other countries from Canada to China. This is probably the best domestic policy move from the Trump administration to fund these unprofitable efforts. In order to secure US supply chain sovereignty instead of relying on Russia and China? It’s almost like FT is trying to make the US public mad… At genuinely great efforts to secure American’s independence by how they word these articles.