全部推文
共 6399 条 · 第 58 / 214 页 · 滚到底自动加载更多
-
GFS 光子/CPO 生态名单
Global Foundries 的光子 / CPO 生态名单： 1. $GFS - 305 亿美元 2. $CDNS - 859 亿美元 3. $SEIGY - 2172 亿美元 4. $SNPS - 840 亿美元 5. $KEYS - 573 亿美元 6. $ATEYY - 1304 亿美元 7. RoboTechnik（ficonTEC）- 114 亿美元 8. $GLW - 1412 亿美元 9. $LITE - 638 亿美元 10. $SIVE - 9.5 亿美元 11. $FN - 247 亿美元 12. $ASX - 633 亿美元 这些都是公开交易的名字。 按他们的演示材料做一个等权做多这个生态，可能也不是个坏主意？ 我还是觉得好笑，所有上市公司都在几十亿美元到几百亿美元市值，而这里却夹着一家小小的瑞典激光公司，和 $LITE 并排出现。
英文原文
Global Foundries photonics/CPO ecosystem list: 1. $GFS - $30.5B 2. $CDNS - $85.9B 3. $SEIGY - $217.2B 4. $SNPS - $84B 5. $KEYS - $57.3B 6. $ATEYY - $130.4B 7. RoboTechnik (ficonTEC) - $11.4B 8. $GLW - $141.2B 9. $LITE - $63.8B 10. $SIVE - $950m 11. $FN - $24.7B 12. $ASX - $63.3B For publicly traded names. Equal weighted long on the ecosystem from their presentation might not be a bad idea? I still find it funny how everything publicly listed is trading in the tens of billions. Then there's some small Swedish laser company there next to $LITE.
-
IBKR 业务也会有点帮助
@pennycheck 说实话，这对 $IBKR 来说也不算坏主意，我会去听他们的财报哈哈！ 但我确实认为，零售账户带来的增量相对机构成交量来说只是小幅提升……不过交易费 / 保证金使用这些长期可能会像 $HOOD 那样变得有意义。
英文原文
@pennycheck Honestly, not a bad idea for $IBKR, will tune into earnings lol! But I do think all the retail accounts only account for a slight boost relative to institutional volume... the trading fees / margin usage might be material like $HOOD over time.
-
TTD 价格也并非没考虑风险
@DudeWhoInvests 对啊……X 上当时有很多人都做多 $TTD 那些价位。 我确实觉得 22 美元左右已经有点把衰退 / 颠覆计进去了，但他们看起来还行。
英文原文
@DudeWhoInvests Yeah… there were a lot of people on X long on $TTD at those levels. I do think $22 is kinda priced for distress/disruption, but they seem to be doing okay.
-
ALMU 和量子点还早
@Lennr1chards 我觉得 $ALMU 和量子点现在还太早了，所以你大概得再等几年。 QD laser 是其他量子点名字，但它们似乎已经因为 Fujitsu 而去风险化了一些。
英文原文
@Lennr1chards I think $ALMU and quantum dot is too early, so you’ll probably need to wait a few years. QD laser were other quantum dot names, but they seem more derisked from Fujitsu.
-
TTD 的短线反弹空间
你能相信 $TTD 不久前还在 139 美元吗？ 我觉得他们转向广告之后，短期 ChatGPT 货币化这条线被低估了。 我确实在 22 美元附近有一些短线仓位，把它当作底部均值回归的机会，不过这绝对不是高 conviction。
英文原文
Can you believe $TTD was once $139 not too long ago? Think the short-term ChatGPT monetization angle is undervalued given they’re moving to ads. I do have short term positions at $22 as a potential mean reversion the bottom, but this is not high conviction by any means. https://t.co/7VMfVACrrl
-
AEHR 被重新定价
我说过了，$AEHR 正在起飞。 当你把市值做到一定程度，基本上就是机构在主导价格了。 如果你找到一家很多超大规模云厂商都在用的公司……它被重估几乎是注定的？
英文原文
Told ya. $AEHR is cooking. Once you reach a certain point with MC it’s mostly institutions driving price. If you find a name that a ton of hyperscalers use… it’s feels bound to get repriced? https://t.co/AHqpgbqHJK
-
已经去风险化
@NabQ321 没有。只是从积压订单和瓶颈需求来看，方向上已经去风险了。
英文原文
@NabQ321 Nope. Just directionally it looks derisked from backlog + bottleneck demand.
-
HPS.A 这种慢牛最能涨
像 $HPS.A 这种看起来很无聊的名字，最后反而涨得最猛？ 我在 186 美元时就说它看起来像一只稳定复利的名字，而现在两周已经到 241 美元了。 我觉得变压器 / 开关设备瓶颈在市场里被严重低估了。 https://t.co/XkI6kHdExh
英文原文
Boring names like $HPS.A end up cooking hardest? I said this looked like a steady compounder back at $186 and it’s already at $241 in 2 weeks. I think transformers/switchgear bottlenecks are underappreciated in markets. https://t.co/XkI6kHdExh
-
那个东西太怪了
@Himothee 那是个什么怪东西。
英文原文
@Himothee What is that abomination
-
HIMS 开始被注意到
看起来 $HIMS 终于开始被注意到了，今天涨了 +8.64%。 肽业务和收购都在起飞？ 让我有点意外的是，虽然基本面在改善，SI 还保持在 36%。 我很想看看多头和空头最后会怎么演。
英文原文
Looks like $HIMS is finally getting some attention, up +8.64% today. Peptide arc and acquisitions go brrr? Caught me by surprise why the SI is still 36% despite improving fundamentals. I’m very curious to see how this all plays out with the longs vs. shorts. https://t.co/CtpscjKIxl
-
AI 时代的卖铲子
@Ud197601 这就是 AI 时代的现代淘金热。我只是把铲子和地点都告诉大家。
英文原文
@Ud197601 This is the modern day gold rush for AI. I'm just giving everyone the shovels and location.
-
原始来源在这
@itsakek 原始来源在这！不过我还是觉得市场还没有把 $GFS + $SIVE 这两个加起来看明白。 https://t.co/llafVFO46B
英文原文
@itsakek Original source was here! But still don't think markets put 1+1 together with $GFS + $SIVE yet. https://t.co/llafVFO46B
-
GFS 首次直接确认 SIVE
$GFS 是不是第一次直接确认了 $SIVE…… 作为他们 CPO / 光子生态的激光供应商？ 这次是明确的激光架构纳入，而不是之前和 Ayar / Celestial 那种供应链映射。 你还能从这里看到一些其他主要玩家： - $FN / $ASX 负责组装 - $LITE / $SIVE 负责激光 - $ATEYY / $KEYS 负责测试。 目前还没有基于文字的新闻，因为这来自 $GFS 2026 年 3 月的网络研讨会图像式演示。 但在 $LITE 旁边那份很小的激光供应商名单里，竟然有一家市值不到 10 亿美元的公司…… 这确实很特别，对吧？
英文原文
Did $GFS give the first direct confirmation about $SIVE... As the laser supplier for their CPO / photonics ecosystem? This is explicit laser architectural inclusion vs. previous supply chain mapping with Ayar/Celestial. You get a hint of the other major players here: - $FN / $ASX for assembly - $LITE / $SIVE for lasers - $ATEYY / $KEYS for testing. There's no text-based news yet, since this was the $GFS March 2026 webinar image-based presentation. But having a <$1B company on the tiny list of laser providers next to $LITE... Quite special right?
-
LPKF 我也有仓位
@babyfolio 正如其他评论猜的那样，我确实也持有 LPKF Laser，所以我们看看它接下来表现如何。
英文原文
@babyfolio As the other comments guessed, I do own LPKF Laser so we'll see how it does.
-
别说我没持有 GLW
@M1nEe07 这也太蠢了，我甚至都不持有 $GLW。难道我就不能发布公开信息整合吗。
英文原文
@M1nEe07 This is just stupid, I don't even own $GLW. Can I just post public information synthesis.
-
SHMD 先把融资整理好
@Alin38 我个人不太喜欢 $SHMD 的稀释悬压。要是他们把融资理顺，我觉得它还是有潜力的。
英文原文
@Alin38 I personally wasn't a fan of dilution overhang with $SHMD. If they clean up financing, I think it has potential.
-
简短回复，无实质内容
也许吧
英文原文
@ThatIsIt11 perhaps
-
GLW 在玻璃基板上领跑
Digitimes：$GLW 领先 KCC 和 LX Glass 的玻璃核心基板业务。 “玻璃核心基板……是下一代先进半导体封装的关键。” 除了其结构性重要性之外，玻璃核心封装的商业化时间线似乎也在加速。我们已经接近 H2，2027 年大概就是拐点。 我在上游玻璃核心名字里确实有仓位，不过最近的新闻也确认了它的重要性。
英文原文
Digitimes: $GLW leads glass core substrate vs. KCC and LX Glass "Glass core substrates ... are key to next-generation advanced semiconductor packaging". On top of its structural importance, the commercialization timeline for glass core packaging seems to be accelerating as well. We're close to H2 and 2027 is probably the inflection point. I do have positions in the glass core names upstream, but recent news confirms the importance.
-
半导体这波太夸张
哇，如果你在那段伊朗波动里拿住了，从 $INTC 到 $MRVL，很多半导体名字都经历了改变人生级别的上涨。 很少有 1000 亿美元以上的大盘股能在一个月里涨 50% 到 70%。 你拿住了吗，匿名网友？ https://t.co/PAj6MmycqI
英文原文
Wow this was like a life-changing rally for many in semis from $INTC to $MRVL if you held through Iran volatility. Not often do large caps $100B+ move 50-70% in 1 month time. Did you hold anon? https://t.co/PAj6MmycqI
-
欧洲半导体也在起飞
哇……欧洲股票也在起飞。 $SIVE +12.76% $SOI +11.33% $ALRIB +9.08% $IQE +6.3% 当像 Soitec 这种 40 多亿美元市值的公司一天涨 10%+，这大概率就是机构买盘，像 IQE 和 Point72 那样。 https://t.co/tjLBK9C766
英文原文
Woah... European stocks go brrr. $SIVE +12.76% $SOI +11.33% $ALRIB +9.08% $IQE +6.3% When $4B+ MC companies like Soitec go up 10%+ a day, this is likely institutional buying as seen with IQE and Point72. https://t.co/tjLBK9C766
-
SOI 跑赢了很多
@artazc44161 对，$SOI 自从我发 thesis 帖之后已经涨了 140%+。 这就是抢跑机构，Serenity 的打法。
英文原文
@artazc44161 Yeah $SOI is up 140%+ since my thesis post. This is what you call, frontrunning instituions with Serenity.
-
GOOGL ASIC 新闻对 SIVE 不够计价
我很惊讶 $SIVE 没有因为 $GOOGL 和 Marvell 的 ASIC 新闻而涨得更高。 甚至连 $MRVL 隔夜都涨了 6.24%+。 市场大概还不知道上游激光源到底来自哪里，对吧？ https://t.co/0Hgfo0dQLo
英文原文
Surprised $SIVE isn’t up higher from the $GOOGL ASIC news with Marvell. Even $MRVL is up 6.24%+ overnight. Markets still probably don’t know where the upstream laser source comes from yet? https://t.co/0Hgfo0dQLo
-
ASTS 也能做短线
@soulbiri1 这很公平！我也喜欢顺手做一点 $ASTS 的波段交易。但这次看起来比别人说的前几次下跌都更有料一些。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 That's fair! I enjoy swing trading $ASTS on the side. But this seemed more material than previous drops than what others were claiming.
-
RKLB 和 SpaceX 的数据
@BasedPeterThiel $RKLB 大概是 2023 年 87 天，SpaceX 的 Falcon 9 大概是 176 天。就是一些历史数据，粗估在 4 到 7 百万之间。
英文原文
@BasedPeterThiel $RKLB was ~87 days 2023, SpaceX falcon9 was ~176 days. Just historical data from issues, rough guess between 4-7M.
-
Blue Origin发射失败导致积压，连锁延迟影响ASTS等公司未来收益增长，非无关紧要。
太空板块的$ASTS看起来正玩得开心。尽管Blue Origin遭遇了重大失败，X平台上却莫名乐观...(这对SpaceX来说是利好，顺便也利好$RKLB。)至于$ASTS，当他们的卫星还没上天时，确实会影响未来的收入确认。Blue Origin的发射大概会推迟好几个月，可能影响~400-700万美元？如果一家主要以未来增长定价的公司被推迟了，那问题就不只是一颗卫星，而是后续的一系列卫星也会跟着延后...这对未来收益增长的影响很大(因为看起来他们没能达到45颗的目标)。经过数月的调查，Blue Origin可能会被$AMZN亚马逊的Kuiper项目和国防部的有效载荷积压住。看来他们处于非常不利的境地，不得不依赖竞争对手SpaceX。这绝非一些人用那些弯弯扭扭的线图所声称的"无关紧要"，但我也不评价这是否是买入机会。
英文原文
Space sector with $ASTS looks like it’s having fun. Lot of optimism on X somehow, even after Blue Origin had a major failure... (positive for SpaceX and byproduct $RKLB.) As for $ASTS it does matter for future revenue recognition, when they dont have satellites in space. Blue Origin launches probably got delayed a ton of months, maybe like ~4-7M? If a company that is priced primarily by forward growth gets delayed. Then it's not just one satellite, but the subsequent ones ones as well... this hurts forward earnings growth a lot (since it doesn’t look like they hit 45 targets) After months of investigation Blue Origin will likely be backlogged from $AMZN Kuiper and DoD payloads too. Seems like in a pretty bad spot being dependent on their competitor SpaceX. Definitely not "immaterial" as others were claiming with their squiggly line charts, but no comment about buying opportunity.
-
SIVE 供应链里很多都很强
我一直在告诉大家…… $SIVE 供应链里有很多东西都很有吸引力，适合做多。 Win Semi（3105）一天涨 10%，然后涨停。 虽然它们显然是为 $AVGO 或 SpaceX 供货，但光子学爬坡是由 $NVDA 领头，随后是 $GOOGL、$AMZN、$MSFT。 这会让光子学成为 Win 的一个巨大增长引擎。
英文原文
I'm telling you all... Lot of stuff in the $SIVE supply chains make very compelling longs. Win Semi (3105) just goes up 10% a day then halts trading after hitting its max. Obviously they do things for $AVGO or SpaceX, but photonics ramp spearheaded by $NVDA and followed by $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT Would make photonics a massive growth vector for Win.
-
中美AI竞赛驱动半导体供应链全面增长，台积电、ASML数据验证繁荣。
不，继续全速前进。美国和中国两个国家正在竞速，看谁能先在递归自我改进中实现技术奇点。$TSM的财报显示大幅增长，供应链几乎未受干扰（如氦气）。$ASML显示创纪录的资本支出。OpenAI融资超过1200亿美元，因此蔓延恐慌至少还能再持续一年半。像Mythos这样的模型正以惊人的速度不断改进，从中国到美国，所有人都在抢购所有GPU来训练新模型并追赶。每个人都在抢购材料，供应链中那些以前很少使用的零件现在都有了来自AI的大幅增长机会。
英文原文
Nah, full steam ahead. Two nations in US/China are racing to see who can reach the singularity first in recursive self-improvement. $TSM earnings indicated massive growth + little disruption to supply chains (eg. helium). $ASML indicated record capex spending. OpenAI raised $120B+ so contagion fears are gone for another year and half. Models like Mythos keep improving at just astounding rates, and everyone from China to US are soaking up all the GPUs to train new models + catch up. Everyone is soaking up materials and little used parts in supply chains now have massive growth vectors from AI.
-
AAOI 和 AXTI 也走对了
我之前发过 $AAOI 从 30 美元到 65 美元再到 80 美元的看法。现在已经到 150 美元了。 $AXTI 也是一样，如果你三个月前问我，这 5 只名字里每一个都会不一样。AXT 现在也从 12 美元涨到 82 美元。 我是说，市场总会变，名字也会变。
英文原文
I was posting about $AAOI $30 -> $65 -> $80. It's now $150. Same thing with $AXTI, if you asked me three months ago, all 5 names would be different. AXT is now $82 from $12. I see valuations as elevated, but I'm still personally holding. I really think they're all compelling long term, I'm just talking about shorter-term entry points.
-
TTD/HIMS/RDDT 都有均值回归机会
像 $TTD 在 22 美元这样的价位是有吸引力的，大概还有 40% 到 50% 的上行空间，能回到低 30 美元。 $HIMS 在 28 美元也差不多，我能看到它均值回归到 40 美元。 还有 $RDDT，我在 140 美元附近做多，现在也还可以。
英文原文
Stuff like $TTD at $22 is compelling, probably 40-50% upside back to low 30's.. Same with $HIMS at $28, I can see mean reversion to $40. And $RDDT at $163, went long around $140, posted some thesis on the way down to $125, but glad it's recovered a bit. Could probably chop a bit but I do see it recovering to $200+ in better macro.
-
上游供应链主要在海外
@MisterPariPassu 很多上游供应链并不在美国。 它们主要集中在日本、韩国、越南、台湾等等。通常在美国上市的股票，价格更偏向于按前瞻 12 个月计价。
英文原文
@MisterPariPassu A lot of the upstream supply chains are not in the US. Mostly concentrated in Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, etc. Normally US-listed equities more priced in at a certain point in time. It's just rarer to find an $AAOI, $AEHR, sitting around.