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在光子学超级周期中做多整条CPO/1.6T供应链，推荐SIVE/Shunsin/Win Semi/MRVL/HPS.A五只标的
在更广泛的光子学超级周期中，提前布局1.6T/共封装光学(CPO)对我来说是最具吸引力的投资。我对这个观点有很高的信心。这就是为什么我做多整条供应链（外加一个额外瓶颈）： 1. $SIVE - 他们的激光收入随着$JBL、$MRVL、Ayar、O-Net大幅增长。而且我确实认为CPO/1.6T将远超任何保守的分析师预期，因为$NVDA、$GOOGL等公司大力推动光子学架构。下行风险是多源采购，但Jabil选择Sivers是有原因的。当你比较$MTSI、$LITE、$COHR、古河电工等公司时，全球范围内真正强大的激光供应商屈指可数...它们的市值都超过100亿美元，然后你有这个类似小型芯片法案的瓶颈，市值还不到10亿美元。 2. Shunsin（6451）- 我不明白为什么Foxconn的光学代工厂（用于测试、封装和组装）的估值比$LWLG低15亿美元市值。考虑到他们通过Foxconn的光子学规模显得非常去风险化。$TSM的光学部门VisEra估值约50亿美元，但他们从第三代在2028年下半年才能扩大产能。Foxconn看起来明年就要开始提升产能。他们只是基于$NVDA CPO供应链在台湾的需求以低远期市盈率倍数增长，所有公开指标都指向产能扩张和极端需求。 3. Win Semi - 他们是Sivers扩大DFB激光生产的代工厂，以及$AVGO、SpaceX供应链等的代工厂。当我做供应链映射时，Win Semi在我看到的每个前沿供应链中都出现了。市场可能有一些东西没有定价。 4. $MRVL - 我觉得作为小型Broadcom真的很吸引人。他们今天与$GOOGL的潜在设计有助于2028年后的业务案例。但我关注的催化剂是$MSFT Maia的提升，发生时间是2026年下半年，并可能在2027、2028、2029年持续指数级增长。Celestial收购对他们来说可能是世界上最明智的决定。也许在下次回调或CSP时买入？ 5. $HPS.A - 变压器/开关设备是数据中心供应链中的商品和平淡的部件。然而，当瓶颈是2-5年，且订单积压增长超过100%...导致极端短缺时。自从我发帖以来只涨了20%以上，但我确实看到去风险化，考虑到大量订单积压的可见性（即使它是推断的，他们不给出确切数字）。我确实认为市场错过了一些东西，特别是如果他们成功实施价格上涨，潜在的毛利率扩张....同样，订单积压加需求只是为公司去风险，而且看起来像是去年设施扩张后的高增长复合器。 还有很多其他我非常喜欢的如$NBIS、$JBL、$RPI、$TSEM、$LITE、$ARM、$SOI、$AXTI、$IQE、$ALRIB、Fittech、PCL等，但我只是从脑海中随口提到5个从今天的价格...如果我要创建一个新投资组合。当然，与其他与AI供应链不相关的公司进行杠铃式配置是好的，但这些只是我喜欢的5个。
英文原文
Frontrunning 1.6T/CPO within the broader photonics supercycle is the most compelling investment to me. I have high conviction in that statement. Which is why I'm long the entire supply chain (+1 extra bottlenecK) 1. $SIVE - Their laser revenue scales aggressively with $JBL, $MRVL, Ayar, O-Net. And I do think CPO/1.6T will blow away any conservative analyst projections from how hard $NVDA, $GOOGL, and others have been pushing photonics architectures. Downside risk is multi-sourcing, but there's a reason Jabil chose Sivers. When you compare $MTSI, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and others. There's genuinely not many laser suppliers in the entire world... they're all $10B+, then you have this mini CHIPS act chokepoint trading at <$1B MC. 2. Shunsin (6451) - I don't see how it's possible Foxconn's optical foundry for testing, packaging, and assembly is valued at $1.5B MC less than $LWLG. When they look extremely derisked piggybacking off of Foxconn's photonics volume. $TSM's optical arm VisEra example is ~$5B, but they scale H2 2028 from Gen-3. Foxconn looks to be ramping up just next year. They're just scaling low fwd p/e multiples off of $NVDA CPO supply chain demand in Taiwan and all public indicators point to capacity expansion + extreme demand. 3. Win Semi - They're the foundry for Sivers to scale up DFB laser production. As well as $AVGO, SpaceX supply chains and others. When I do supply chain mapping and Win Semi pops up in every single frontier supply chain I see. There's probably something markets are not pricing in. 4. $MRVL - I find this genuinely compelling as a mini-Broadcomm. Their potential design with with $GOOGL today, helps the case past 2028. But the catalyst I was looking at was $MSFT Maia ramp, which happens H2 2026, and likely keep scaling up exponentially into 2027, 2028, 2029. Celestial acquisition was probably the smartest thing in the world for them. Maybe on next drop or CSP? 5. $HPS.A - Transformers/Switchgears are commodities + boring parts of the DC supply chain. However, when the bottleneck is 2-5 years, and you have backlog increasing 100%+... causing extreme shortages. It's only up 20%+ since my thesis post, but I do see this being de-risked given massive backlog visibility (even though it's inferred, they don't give exact #). I do think markets are missing something, especially with potential gross margin expansion from price hikes if they pull it off.... Again backlog + demand just de-risks this company, and it seems like a high growth compounder post facility expansion last year. There's many others like $NBIS, $JBL, $RPI, $TSEM, $LITE, $ARM, $SOI, $AXTI, $IQE, $ALRIB, Fittech, PCL, and others that I'm very fond of, but just mentioning 5 off the top of my head from today's prices... if I'm creating a new portfolio. Of course, it's good to barbell with other uncorrelated companies to AI supply chains, but these are just 5 I liked.
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批评仅看图表的技术分析谬误，强调基本面比K线更重要。
谢谢，我只是厌倦了人们在图表上画线，或者说'已经涨了200%，所以可能不会再涨了'。这可能是投资领域最大的谬误之一，尤其是欧洲当地人可能很难理解这一点。基本面相、market expansion、revenue acceleration、客户，比图表上的数字重要得多。
英文原文
Thanks, I'm just so tired of people drawing lines on a chart or saying "it's gone up 200%, so it probably can't go up more". This is probably one of the greatest fallacies in investing, especially one European locals might have a hard time understanding. Fundamentals, market expansion, revenue acceleration, customers, are much more important than numbers on a chart.
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量子点太早，先看设备商
@dontbuytops $ALMU 和量子点对于做多的人来说真的太早了，QD laser 也是一样。 如果你想参与 capex / R&D 周期，看看像 $ALRIB 这样的设备供应商会更好。
英文原文
@dontbuytops $ALMU and quantum dot is way way too early for people going long on that and QD laser. If you want to play capex R&D cycles, look at machine suppliers like $ALRIB, $VECO or $AIXA or that level.
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FLY 仍是中期看法
@sachbarnes 是啊，我对 $FLY 的中型运力 thesis 在去年 30 美元时就很看好，很高兴看到它从 20 美元回来了。 我觉得 AI 供应链里还有更有吸引力的机会。
英文原文
@sachbarnes Yeah my $FLY thesis about medium lift was at $30 last year, glad to see it’s recovered from $20. I thought there were more compelling opportunities in the AI supply chains but I’m happy it’s up a lot
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光子学是可扩张性的解法
@dontbuytops 光子学就是解决可扩展性的办法。 如果我们说的是像 EML / DFB 这种光子的大规模生产，那确实有瓶颈。 这也是我看多 $SIVE 的原因之一——他们从一开始就不会自己烧太多 capex 去处理这些问题。
英文原文
@dontbuytops Photonics is the solution to scalability. If we’re talking about mass production of photonics like EML/DFB stuff, there’s bottlenecks for sure. Which is why I’m long the entire supply chain from substrates to foundries to osats .
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做多 $ALRIB，看好机构和Apollo会入场收购，散户领先一步
我在 $ALRIB 做多。其他关于 Riber 或光子学板块的看空帖子，我不怎么看重，因为我对自己的投资论点很有信心。 Apollo 明天就能轻松花掉 5 亿美元，眼睛都不眨一下，直接买下为 $MSFT / 超大规模云商量子以及其他量子点项目服务的关键环节。 这就是我说的抢先机构，我非常确信机构会想要持有一定比例的股份，但散户在这个标的上是早期的。
英文原文
I’m long on $ALRIB, I don’t place much value on other bear posts on Riber or photonics names since I’m confident in my own thesis. Apollo can literally blow $500m tomorrow, not bat an eye, and buy the chokepoint for $MSFT / hyperscaler quantum and other Quantum Dot programs. This is what I mean by frontrunning institutions, I’m very confident they will want to own a % but retail is early to the name.
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Point72 才刚开始买 IQE
@marv_jones6 Point72 上周才刚开始买 $IQE。 这对机构来说还处在发现阶段。 之所以感觉像“晚了”，只是因为我很早就发过 thesis 帖。
英文原文
@marv_jones6 Point72 literally just started buying $IQE last week. It’s at the beginning of discovery stage to institutions. The only reason it feels “late” is because I pointed it out extremely early and it’s already up few hundred %. But no, it’s still early
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称$700M流入AI供应链股票，建议用基本面分析等待市值兑现。
哪有什么回调——$700M正流入$JBL、J($MRVL)、Ayar、O-Net和其他供应链。人们也忘了$SIVE是芯片法案(CHIPS Act)的受益者，后续很可能还有更多跟进。最好基于前瞻增长做基本面分析来推导市值(MC)，然后等待逻辑兑现，而不是盯着K线图。
英文原文
What pullback it’s $700M going into $JBL, $MRVl, Ayar, O-Net and other supply chains? People also forget $SIVE was a CHIPS act recipient with likely more follow-ups. Better to do fundamental analysis on forward growth to derive MC and just wait for it to play out, not look at swiggly lines.
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两周内多数持仓股大涨，长期逻辑不变，短期入场点决定10-20%收益差异。
哇，大部分这30只我喜欢的股票两周内都涨了很多（给新来的朋友们做个回顾）顺便说一下，我对它们任何一只的长期看法都没有改变，从$MRVL、$AMD、$ARM到其他的。短期入场点位是会变的，比如从$AAOI到$AEHR，而这些点位差异会产生+10-20%的不同。我在做新布局时，分析中会花很多精力在"未被发掘"的标的上，比如Riber或$SIVE或$RPI或$IQE->等待它演绎出来。但去年关于$LITE或$NBIS或$AXTI的论点还是一样的。我不需要反复发布相同的论点，因为它已经不是新东西了。但它们之所以不再是新的，是因为市场已经验证了这些论点，正在因此对股票进行实时重新定价。
英文原文
Wow, majority of these 30 stocks I’ve liked are up a lot in just two weeks (just a recap to new folks) By the way, my long term opinion doesn’t change on any of them from $MRVL, $AMD, $ARM and others. Short term entry points do though with names like $AAOI to $AEHR. And they make the difference between +10-20%. I focus a lot about the “undiscovered” ones like Riber or $SIVE or $RPI or $IQE in analysis when I make a new entry -> wait for it to play out. But the same thesis around $LITE or $NBIS or $AXTI from last year is still the same. And I don’t need to post that same thesis multiple times, since it’s not new anymore. But the reason they’re not new is because markets have validated the thesis and are repricing the stocks live because of them.
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MRVL 和 GOOGL 更关键
@StocksAREnuts 我在 $80 的时候就看好 $MRVL，直到现在也是，主要是因为 $MSFT Maia。 但如果 $GOOGL 成为 2028 年之后有更强收入可见性的客户，那帮助也很大。 它们都还是基于 CPO / AI 光子学那条线。
英文原文
@StocksAREnuts I liked $MRVL back at $80 and even here, mainly because of $MSFT Maia. But having $GOOGL as a likely customer for revenue visibility past 2028 helps a lot too. They're really milking that Celestial acquisition.
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台湾不会主动伤自己
@miraclemaster07 不，我不认为中国会是台湾的问题。 因为美国会在军事上保卫台湾，而且也没人想跟特朗普陷入潜在的核冲突。 我们的目标应该是搞清楚这些上游供应链，而不是把自己绕进去。
英文原文
@miraclemaster07 No, I don't see China as an issue with Taiwan. Since US would defend Taiwan militarily, and nobody wants to get into a potential nuclear conflict with Trump. Our whole semi supply chains end up in Taiwan, the US won't just hand that over lol.
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SIVE 下一站像 LITE
谢谢，我之前确实说过 $SIVE 看起来像下一个 $LITE！ 去年我因为 Google TPU 看好 Lumentum，而市场通常会更喜欢 Google 生态而不是 Amazon 生态。 但如果 Apple 在 CPO 上放量，市场会重新认识这整条线。
英文原文
Thanks, I did say $SIVE looked like the next $LITE! I went long on Lumentum last year because of the Google TPU and markets tend to like Google's ecosystem a bit more than $AMZN or $MSFT. Of course, a lot can happen in the next 2 years so this is speculative but likely supply chain mapping, we'll find out what happens.
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Marvell与Google洽谈TPU开发，Sivers有望成为光子光源供应商
$MRVL正在洽谈为$GOOGL开发TPU（张量处理单元），涵盖两种不同的芯片型号。 如果谈判顺利，$SIVE很可能成为Google供应链的光源供应商。 尤其因为其定制ASIC（专用集成电路）可能推动Celestial IP在MPU（微处理器单元）架构中实现规模扩展（光子结构，Photonic Fabric）。这与$POET和Sivers两家公司的布局都相吻合。 定制ASIC需要数年时间，因此来自Google的实质性营收可能要等到2028年下半年。 供应商可能采用多元采购策略，但拥有Google作为潜在终端客户是一个超越2028年的结构性多年催化剂。 市场通常具有前瞻性。
英文原文
$MRVL in talks to develop $GOOGL TPU for two different chip models. High possibility $SIVE likely became the light source for Google's supply chains if talks go well. Especially as their custom ASIC likely pushes Celestial IP for scale up (Photonic Fabric) in the MPU's architecture. And this maps to both $POET and Sivers. Custom ASICs take years, so there's probably no material revenue from Google until H2 2028. Vendors are also probably multi-sourced, but having Google as a likely end user is a structural multi-year catalyst past 2028. Markets are typically forward looking.
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上涨时更应坚持
@amandaong23 对，我觉得美国前一阵刚经历过一次小崩盘。 我一直都认为，如果一只股票在那种调整期还能上涨，那它在后面正面宏观环境里大概率会涨得更多。
英文原文
@amandaong23 We literally just had a mini crash two weeks ago. I’ve always maintained that if a stock is up during that correction period, it will probably be up a ton more during a friendlier macro climate.
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不想做跟单秀
@itsakek 我不是 Enplas 或 Win Semi 那类第一时间就有仓位的人，所以不会发那种“你听到了吗，匿名网友？”的帖子。 如果我的 thesis 本身是独特的，比如 $RPI 或 $AXTI，那我就会去表达胜利感。
英文原文
@itsakek I’m not first to Enplas or stuff like Win Semi, so not going to do a did you listen anon? Type post. If my thesis is originally unique like $RPI or $AXTI I’m going to victory lap a lot on the way up.
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自己做模型
@0xkyle__ 哈哈，喜欢这种 vibe coded 的东西。 但它漏掉了一些细微差别，比如我在今年晚些时候是以 $148 买入 $RDDT，所以 YTD 表现可能并不能反映我实际进场的时间。
英文原文
@0xkyle__ LOL, love vibe coded stuff like this. But it’s missing some nuance like I was $RDDT at $148 later in the year, so YTD performance might not capture time I went long.
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原始 thesis 帖的反讽
还有件事挺好笑的： “如果你把 1 万美元投进 ____，今天会变成 ____！” 结果那些全都是我最早发 thesis 帖的股票，从 $AXTI 到 $IQE。 再等 6 个月，你大概又会在 $SIVE 和我其他关于卡点的 thesis 帖里看到同样的情况。
英文原文
It’s still funny that there’s so many: “If you invested $10K into ____ you would have ____ today!” Then they’re all the stocks I was the original thesis poster on from $AXTI to $IQE. Wait 6 months and you’ll probably see the same thing with $SIVE and my other bottleneck thesis posts.
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自建模型和数据管线
@PacificPal00 我最后还是自己搭了自定义模型和数据管线。 Frontier 模型半数时间都很烂，爱胡编，除非你做的是更基础的事。
英文原文
@PacificPal00 I ended up just building my own custom model and data pipelines. The frontier models suck and hallucinate half the time unless you’re doing something more basic
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这是基于已确认协议的映射
@crux_capital_ 这就是基于已确认协议做的供应链映射。 $GOOGL 不会在新闻稿里突然跑出来说它的上游基板供应商是 $AXTI。 我在上面的说法里会用“很可能”这样的词，哪怕对第一轮量产周期来说几乎已经是板上钉钉。
英文原文
@crux_capital_ It’s supply chain mapping off confirmed agreements. $GOOGL won’t go out and randomly say in a press releases their upstream substrate provider is $AXTI. I use words like likely in my statements above even though it’s near certain for the first production cycles
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认证周期不能短线拆解
@crux_capital_ 如果你觉得能在很短时间内把 $POET 从 Celestial 2028 的量产爬坡里设计掉，那你就是没理解认证周期。 $SIVE 和 $POET 也是一样，但我预计这些关系大多会随着时间变成多来源结构。
英文原文
@crux_capital_ That’s misunderstanding qualification cycles if you think they can design out $POET in a short timeframe for celestial 2028 volume ramp. Same with $SIVE and $POET but I expect most relationships to be multi source over time
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就是供应链映射
@crux_capital_ 这是供应链映射。 https://t.co/loBcX9iRNp
英文原文
@crux_capital_ It’s supply chain mapping https://t.co/loBcX9iRNp
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SIVE 仍然非常早期
@FamineRE $SIVE 现在还非常早期，如果一切条件都对齐，再看管理层有多激进，我觉得两年内有很清晰的 100 亿美元以上路径。
英文原文
@FamineRE $SIVE is extremely early and I see a clear path to $10B+ in 2 years if the stars align + depending how ambitious management is
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CPO 爬坡被 NVDA 提前
$NVDA 把整个生态都加速了，CPO 预期也因此提前了好几个月，就像 $ASX 看到的那样。 所以我预计 Celestial 的量产会比 $MRVL 自己的 2028 预期早得多。 我原本的 thesis 是，$SIVE 通过 $JBL 1.6T 这条桥梁，把量产订单从 2027 年以后往前推。 市场通常是前瞻性的。
英文原文
CPO expectations have been bumped up months with $NVDA accelerating everything in the ecosystem as seen with $ASX. So I expect Celestial to be delivering volume much earlier than $MRVL projections than 2028. Main thesis was $SIVE was $JBL 1.6T bridging the gap with Sivers into accelerating volume orders past 2027. Markets usually are forward looking
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13.5M 融资降低稀释担忧
对，$SIVE 刚从欧洲养老基金和西方机构那里融资了 1350 万美元，换来 2.5% 的股份。 然后 Win Semi 又把量产去风险了。最近这次融资也进一步缓解了稀释和资产负债表的担忧。 现在就是等规模起来。 主要担心还是激光的多来源，而不是资产负债表或执行问题。
英文原文
Yeah? $SIVE just raised $13.5M from European pension funds and Western institutions for 2.5%. Then Win Semi derisked volume. Recent fundraiser derisked more dilution fears/balance sheet fears. It’s just waiting for scale now. Main concern is laser multi-sourcing, not balance sheet/execution.
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市场更爱确证型证据
@Gubloinvestor 我的意思是，谁都可以通过 AlChip、Marvell 之类把它映射到 Amazon，或者映射到 Microsoft，对吧？ 但市场有时候更喜欢一些更具体的“证据”，比如来自 $AMZN 的 photonic fabric 采购协议，而它又能映射回 $SIVE。
英文原文
@Gubloinvestor I mean anyone can just map it to Amazon through AlChip, Marvell, etc? Or Microsoft? But sometimes markets like more concrete“proof” like photonic fabric purchase agreements from $AMZN that maps to $SIVE
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JBL LRO 的收入模型
我做了一些 $JBL LRO 放量的建模。 按我的个人估算，它会给 Sivers 带来： ~1.2 亿美元 2027 ~2.8 亿美元 2028 ~4.8 亿美元 2029 这对 Sivers 来说是 ARR 级别的收入，考虑到它的市值，已经极其重要了，而且还只算了这个客户本身，不包括 Marvell、Ayar 和其他未确认买家。 我个人当时觉得今天值 20 亿美元以上是合理的，我们看看后面会怎样。
英文原文
I did some modeling of $JBL LRO scale up. And from personal est. it brings in: ~$120M 2027 ~$280M 2028. ~$480M 2029 For ARR to Sivers, which is extremely significant given Sivers MC, from that customer alone. Not including Marvell, Ayar, and other unidentified buyers. I thought $2B+ today was reasonable personally, we’ll see what happens.
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Amazon 的 warrant 协议会带来放量
@PhotonCap 基本上每次 $AMZN 有像 $ALAB 2024、$AAOI 2026 这种 warrant 协议时，量产订单都会起飞。
英文原文
@PhotonCap Basically every time $AMZN has these warrant agreements like $ALAB 2024, $AAOI 2026, volume orders go brrr
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SIVE 的终端用户是谁
以防你还在想 $SIVE 的终端用户到底是谁： Sivers 激光 -> $AMZN（Marvell 的 8-K SEC 文件里有） Amazon 和 Celestial 之间有 “photonic fabric” 的采购协议，而这条链通过两跳关系映射到 Sivers 激光。 协议里 Marvell 的股份价值按 87 美元/股算，所以 Amazon 有很强的动力尽可能多买（Marvell 现在股价已经 139 美元以上了）。 这些量产订单对 $SIVE 最有帮助，因为他们体量小。 我只是想指出这一条关系。 但在 7.2 亿美元市值下…… 市场显然漏掉了 Sivers 作为未来超大规模云光学超级周期里关键激光供应商的角色。
英文原文
Just in case you were wondering who the end users of $SIVE likely were: Sivers lasers -> $AMZN (Marvell's 8-K SEC filings). Amazon has purchase agreements for "photonic fabric" from Celestial, which maps to Sivers lasers through two-hop connections. Marvell's share value under the agreement was $87/share, so Amazon is very incentivized to buy as much as they can (Marvell is trading at $139+). These volume orders help $SIVE the most out of this supply chain, given their size. This is just one-relation to Amazon, I wanted to point out. But at $720m MC... Markets missed Sivers as the critical laser supplier for the upcoming hyperscaler optical supercycle based on new architectural changes.
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700M 市值的 MRVL/JBL 激光供应商很少见
当然会了？你什么时候见过一家具备 $MRVL 和 $JBL 激光供应商地位的公司，市值才 7 亿美元？ 其他激光公司，比如 $MTSI 和 $LITE，现在都在几十亿美元市值区间，而 $SIVE 只有大约 7.2 亿美元。 至于 $ALRIB，既是 $MSFT Quantum 的供应商，又是 $IQE / Fujitsu 量子点业务的供应商，市值只有 3.5 亿美元，这也极其罕见。 你得知道自己持有什么，这样就不用问这种问题了。
英文原文
Of course? When do you ever see the $MRVL and $JBL laser supplier at $700m MC? All the other laser companies like $MTSI and $LITE are in the tens of billions right now and $SIVE is ~$720m. As for $ALRIB it’s extremely rare to have $MSFT Quantum supplier as well as $IQE / Fujitsu quantum dot arm supplier at $350m mc. Important to know what you hold so you don’t need to ask these kinds of questions
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刚才是把 HPS.A 说成 HPS.A 的笔误。
@larmatrade @aiizisw77940 对，$HPS.A 我刚才打错了，平时在 X 上说太多，抱歉。
英文原文
@larmatrade @aiizisw77940 yeah $HPS.A typo, i talk a lot on X mb