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MSFT 上游供应链脆弱点
业绩不错，也很高兴看到 $MSFT 在加速美国 AI 基础设施建设。 不过，微软漏掉了一个关键脆弱点，我想听听你的看法。 微软有没有什么措施，来防止地缘政治对手把你们的上游供应链收购掉？ 比如说，RoboTechnik 收购了微软依赖的 ficonTEC。 微软依赖的自动化组装和测试设备，现在已经落到地缘政治对手手里了。 这看起来非常危险，而超大规模云厂商可能还没意识到基础设施所有权方面正在发生什么。
英文原文
Hey great earnings and nice to see $MSFT accelerating US AI infrastructure. However, there is one critical vulnerability Microsoft is missing, was wondering if I could get your take. Is there anything Microsoft is doing to prevent geopolitical adversaries from buying out your upstream supply chains? For example, a company RoboTechnik acquired ficonTEC, which Microsoft relies on. The automated assembly and testing machines that Microsoft relies on are now owned by geopolitical adversary. This just seems very dangerous and hyperscalers might be missing what's happening with ownership of infrastructure.
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回复太多，靠前跟进最有效
只是提前说一声：（我平时尽量保持主题一致） 但我每天会收到大概 50 到 100 条新私信请求…… 我会尽量回复所有直接消息，但确实很难跟上。 所以如果有紧急内容，或者我漏回了，你再发一次跟进消息，确实会把它顶到前面。 不过我确实会尝试阅读所有评论，尤其是现在要删掉很多假账号回复。
英文原文
Just a PSA: (I normally try to stay on topic) But I get like 50-100 new message requests a day... I try my best to respond to all your direct messages, but it's really hard to keep up. So sending follow ups does push it to the top if there's something urgent or I missed a reply. I do try and read all the comments though (esp. since I need to remove a lot of the fake account replies nowadays)
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对金融信息记忆很好
不幸的是，我对金融信息的记忆真的很好。 所以当新闻出来或者出现某个名字时，我脑子里能把很多名字串起来……有点像国际象棋里的 GM 会往前想 10 步。 缺点也不少，比如记不住脸，但就是数字记得住。
英文原文
I unfortunately have really good memory when it comes to financial information. So when news comes out or there’s a name, I can map a lot of names in my head… Similar to like GMs in chess that think 10 moves ahead. Lot of downside like not being able to remember faces, but just numbers.
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澄清对象
@AstuteKara @frsinvesting 我知道 @frsinvesting，我说的是其他人。
英文原文
@AstuteKara @frsinvesting I know @frsinvesting was I’m talking about others
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还能继续深挖
@0xInitialAce 我之前在子聊天里做过，比如看 SEC 文件里的竞争对手名单之类的线索，但我可以继续往下挖。
英文原文
@0xInitialAce I did in sub chat earlier for clues like competitor lists in SEC filings but I can go further
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不想被 $1 绑着发帖
有些人因为给了我 1 美元，就觉得自己有权告诉我必须发什么……哈哈。 不过我还是很感激，因为对我来说，这更像是他们觉得我的想法有吸引力，而不是金额本身。 但我更希望自己能在一天中自然地分享想法，而不是被无意中“逼着”发帖。
英文原文
People feel entitled to tell me what I have to post because they gave me a $1 lol… I still appreciate it though, because it’s most symbolic to me of finding my ideas compelling rather than the amount. But I’d prefer just to post my thoughts throughout the day without inadvertent coercison.
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Foxconn 让 Shunsin 进入 Nvidia 供应链
只是提醒一下：我不需要每天都发一条关于我持有标的的帖子。 不过，关于 Shunsin（6451）这件事我确实漏掉了： $NVDA 选择了富士康作为 Groq 加速器的独家机架级供应商。 这对 Shunsin（富士康的光学封装业务）非常正面。 所以 ShunSin 的 CPO 和光学封装，基本上借着这条新闻，间接搭上了 Nvidia 的下一代供应链。 市场还没有意识到这层关系（而且它在流通盘分布里，对大多数人来说是被冻结的）。 文章里明确写到，富士康正在整合这些系统，包括“……网络”。 既然富士康是独家组装商，它就会垂直整合，并很可能把 ShunSin 的光学封装方案纳入设计里，而不需要 ShunSin 直接从 Nvidia 那里拿到网络合同。 这就是我说 Shunsin 本质上是在白嫖 $NVDA CPO 生态的意思。富士康体量太大了。 而且你得到的是 Nvidia 光学供应链里的头部玩家，估值却比 $LWLG 还低，哈哈。
英文原文
Just an FYI: I don't need to post something every day about the names I own. However, I did miss this with Shunsin (6451): Foxconn picked by $NVDA as exclusive rack-scale supplier for Groq accelerator. This is highly positive for Shunsin (Foxconn's optical packing arm). So ShunSin's CPO and optical packaging basically backdoored Nvidia's next-gen supply chain with this news. Markets just haven't realized this connection yet (and it's on disposition, so frozen for most). The article explicitly notes that Foxconn is integrating these systems "including ... networking." Bc Foxconn is the exclusive assembler, they'll vertically integrate and likely use ShunSin's optical packaging solutions into the design, bypassing ShunSin's need for networking contract directly from Nvidia. This is what I meant by Shunsin is literally a free piggy back ride to $NVDA CPO ecosystem. Foxconn is massive. And you're getting the leading player in Nvidia's optical supply chain for a lower valuation than $LWLG lol.
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FORM 与 ONTO 都不差
@labubu_trader $FORM 或 $ONTO 都很难出错。整个生态现在都在飞速加速。
英文原文
@labubu_trader Hard to go wrong with $FORM or $ONTO. The whole ecosystem is just accelerating so fast right now.
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TER 不是好代理，FORM 和 VIAV 更纯
@gregory_FTA $TER 不是个好的代理，因为它们体量太大了。它们还暴露在非 AI 领域，比如智能手机芯片、EV/汽车。 而且它们还要面对 Advantest 的竞争。 更好的信号是更纯粹的标的，比如 $FORM 和 $VIAV。
英文原文
@gregory_FTA $TER is not a good proxy because they're extremely large. They had exposure to non-AI segments like smartphone chips, EV/automotive. Then they're facing competition from Advantest. Best signals are more pure play from $FORM and $VIAV.
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不够吸引我建仓
@nguy38219253 我知道这个名字，大家不用一直在评论里反复打出来。只是我觉得它还不够有吸引力，所以没建仓。
英文原文
@nguy38219253 I'm well aware of the name, people don't need to keep typing it in the comments. Just didn't find it compelling enough to take positions in.
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测试/良率链条普遍利多
我帮你盯着这件事（测试/良率篇）： $VIAV 和 $FORM 的财报：极度看多 这意味着什么？ 像 $ONTO / $CAMT 这样的名字会起飞。再加上 $TOWA（6315），因为有迹象显示存储产量正在激进爬坡。 像 Msscorps / $KEYS 这样的名字也会起飞。 更广泛来看，存储和光学生态的上游良率、测试、验证和检测都会大幅受益。而且如果它们正在扩产，这对 $COHR、$FN、$LITE 等也都是领先指标。 对 $VIAV： -> 4.068 亿美元 vs. 3.93 亿美元（超预期）同比增长 42.8%。 -> 每股收益 0.27 美元 vs. 0.2-0.24 美元 指引为 4.27 亿至 4.37 亿美元，显示加速。 对 $FORM： -> 2.26 亿美元，按年增长 32%，每股收益 0.56 美元 vs. 0.45 美元 -> 毛利率大幅提升到 49%（这说明有定价权）。 -> 指引为每股收益 0.61 美元，中值营收约 2.4 亿美元。 “高带宽存储（HBM）需求创纪录，以及代工和逻辑网络应用更强劲” 基本上就是更小的良率/测试生态整体都在起飞。BRRR。
英文原文
Monitoring the situation for you (testing/yields edition): $VIAV and $FORM earnings: Extremely Bullish So what does this mean? Names like $ONTO / $CAMT go brr. Throw in $TOWA (6315), since there's indication of aggressive memory production ramp. Names like Msscorps / $KEYS should go brrr. Broader upstream yields, test, validation, and inspection for both memory + optical ecosystem go heavily BRRR. And it's a leading indicator for $COHR, $FN, $LITE, and others if they're ramping up production. For $VIAV: -> $406.8M vs. $393M (beat) 42.8% Y/Y growth. -> $.27 EPS vs $0.2-$0.24 Guidance was $427m-$437m, indicating acceleration. For $FORM: -> $226M, 32% Y/Y, $.56 EPS vs. $.45 -> margins increased a TON to 49% (which indicates pricing power). -> Guidance was $.61 EPS, midpoint ~$240m revenue. "Record demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and stronger "Foundry & Logic networking applications" Basically the smaller yields/test ecosystem in general. BRRR.
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上游设备商TOWA受益于三大存储厂HBM4资本支出扩张，CPO封装尚未量产需观察ASX等信号，整体由超大规模数据中心资本支出驱动。
$TOWA最大的信号来自SK Hynix、Micron和Samsung，因为这是上游...三大厂商增加了资本支出预测+建设HBM4，所以资本支出确实会流向Towa。 MSSCORP更微妙。这是用于共封装光学(CPO)的，还没到量产的阶段...你可能需要关注$ASX和其他信号。 但它们都主要从超大规模数据中心资本支出作为总的框架来获得推导，今天这个框架基本是看涨的。
英文原文
$TOWA biggest signal is SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung since this is upstream... and the big 3 increased capex projections + building out HMB4 so that capex does flow to Towa. MSSCORP more nuanced. This is for CPO, which is not volume ramped yet... You'd probably want to look at like $ASX and other signals. But they all get derived mainly from hyperscaler capex as an overarching umbrella, which was largely bullish today.
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等转录本都出来再说
@JuicedWealth 等所有转录本都出来后我会再做一次跟进。我确信到目前为止的实际发布里还有很多细节。
英文原文
@JuicedWealth I'll do a follow-up once all the transcripts go live. I'm sure there's a ton of nuance in the actual releases so far.
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忘了 GOOGL
@peedgdev 我把 $GOOGL 忘了，等他们所有转录本都发布完我会再做一次跟进。 有意思的是，Google 上居然正好显示了这条帖子。 https://t.co/SPMfIbmkj9
英文原文
@peedgdev I forgot about $GOOGL, I’ll do a follow up once all their transcripts are published. It’s funny how they’re showing this post on Google though. https://t.co/SPMfIbmkj9
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META 的 capex 利好供应链
@joestar1402 市场也许不喜欢 $META 激进地花 1450 亿美元资本开支……但我觉得小型半导体供应链公司会喜欢，哈哈。 这要看你关注什么。不过整体而言，财报普遍都还是正面的。
英文原文
@joestar1402 So markets might not like $META aggressive capex spending $145 billion… but i think the small semi supply chain players do lol. Depends on what you’re looking at. But earnings were generally positive across the board.
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超大规模云厂商 capex 仍然很强
我已经帮你把情况盯好了。 超大规模云厂商 capex 支出的 TLDR（除了 $TSM 之外的信号）。 来自 $MSFT、$AMZN、$META 的财报： 上游半导体供应链会继续起飞。 $META：2026 财年 capex 为 1150 亿至 1350 亿美元 修正后的 Q1 财报：capex 提高到 1250 亿至 1450 亿美元。 -> 更高的零部件价格（涨价） -> 激进的 AI 基础设施支出 -> 定制模型训练 $MSFT：实际为 319 亿美元，而不是（352.9 亿美元），但原因是供应链瓶颈，而不是资源不足。 我们还在等 $AMZN 的确认，不过他们今年年初的原始 capex 预期大约是 2000 亿美元，来自 Jassy 的备忘录。 所以你可以放心，所有半导体供应链名字在下个季度大概率还是会继续起飞，因为有太多 capex 被灌进去。 然后还有新任美联储主席，他对 AI 和降息都非常积极，而 Jerome 在后面保持平稳（市场大概会喜欢这个）。
英文原文
I've monitored the situation for you. TLDR on hyperscaler capex spend (signal aside from $TSM). From $MSFT, $AMZN, $META earnings: Upstream semi supply chains go brrr. $META: 2026 FY capex $115-$135B Revised Q1 ER: $125B-$145B capex raised. -> Higher component prices (price hikes) -> Aggressive AI infra spending -> Custom Model Training $MSFT: was actually $31.9B vs ($35.29B) but due to supply chain bottlenecks, rather than lack of resources. Still waiting for confirmation around $AMZN but their original capex projection was ~$200B from Jassy's note earlier this year. So you can sleep easy, all the semi supply chain names still likely to keep going brr next quarter, since there's so much capex funneled into them. Then you get the new fed chair who is gung-ho all in on AI + rate cuts, with Jerome keeping stuff chill in the back (which markets probably like)
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AAOI 仍有上行空间
@bartlett_d26245 $AAOI 取决于财报。回到 60 美元时我就说它应该值 110 亿到 130 亿美元，现在终于达到我的预期了。 现在就看执行情况了，但如果他们真的做到成为美国最大的激光代工厂，并拥有 1.6T 产能，一年内轻松就能变成 300 亿美元以上的公司。
英文原文
@bartlett_d26245 $AAOI depends on the earnings. Back at $60 I said it should be valued at $11-$13B, and finally hit that projection. Depends on execution now, but if they deliver becoming largest laser fab + 1.6T capacity America, could easily be a $30B+ company in a year.
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SIVE 仍处早期
@Cassian21828964 如果有什么的话，$SIVE 在 11 亿美元市值下其实非常早期，我认为它今天轻松就该值 20 亿美元以上。 它们站在 CPO / 1.6T 激光的前沿，映射到大量超大规模云厂商，而你现有的激光公司都已经是几百亿美元市值了。 我觉得它就是下一个 $LITE。
英文原文
@Cassian21828964 If anything $SIVE is extremely early at ~$1.1B and I think it should easily be $2B+ today. They’re the bleeding edge of CPO/1.6T lasers mapping to tons of hyperscalers while all your existing laser companies are in the tens of billions. I think it’s the next $LITE.
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信息发现让别人受益
很高兴看到我的关注者正在借助 $SIVE、$AAOI 之类的名字，或者其他名字，摆脱永久性的低层阶级。 股票本来就是正和游戏。 如果信息整合 / 发现是正确的，而且能帮助别人建立自己的判断，那大家都会受益。 我最感谢的还是那 1 美元！
英文原文
Happy to see my followers are escaping the permanent underclass with names like $SIVE, $AAOI, or others. Stocks really are positive sum. Everyone benefits if information synthesis / discovery is correct and helps people from their own conviction. I appreciate the $1 the most!
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ARM 其实涨很多了
@__visionxry__ 兄弟，$ARM 这个月都涨 45% 了，你还在抱怨什么哈哈
英文原文
@__visionxry__ Bro $ARM is up 45% this month, what are you complaining about lol
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20.9M 对大公司不算太大
@ShadowTrades149 对，我看到了。2,090 万美元对一家 100 亿美元以上的公司来说其实不算太重要（但也有帮助），所以我没单独写。
英文原文
@ShadowTrades149 Yeah I did. $20.9M isn’t really very material to a $10B+ company (but helpful) so didn’t cover it.
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只是个链接
@mi20483980476 https://t.co/RmgdVwAjIr
英文原文
@mi20483980476 https://t.co/RmgdVwAjIr
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每天都在大涨有点疲劳
还有别人也开始对从 $INTC 到 $SIMO 这些名字每天都在涨这么多感到有点疲劳吗？ 你看，英特尔这家 3000 多亿美元的公司一天涨 11%，而 Silicon Motion 涨了 41%…… 很大一部分其实只是押对了行业 / 玩家…… https://t.co/ZEPkUVVt51
英文原文
Anyone else getting a little tired of everything from $INTC to $SIMO just going up so much every day? You have Intel, a $300B+ company gaining 11% a day, while Silicon Motion gaining 41%… Large part of it is just going long on the right sector/players... https://t.co/ZEPkUVVt51
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TOWA 仍是必须持有
@johndoestocks 问得好，$TOWA 还是必须持有，所以不是问题。 即便到了本世纪末的 HBM5、采用 hybrid bonding，它们也许只是丢掉流程中的一个步骤，但仍然会是关键卡点。
英文原文
@johndoestocks Good question, $TOWA is still a must have so not a concern. Even with hybrid bonding end of decade hbm5, they might just lose one step of the process but remain a critical chokepoint
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看基本面和市值，不要只看图
@forget8106 我不同意，我个人最近才刚进了 MSSCorp。 还是看基本面和市值更好，而不是只盯着图看它涨了多少。
英文原文
@forget8106 I’d disagree, I personally just entered MSSCorp recently. It’s better to look at fundamentals and MC rather than just looking at the chart to see how much it ran up.
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醒来看到 SIVE 上涨
@ClewyCat 没有，我还是很累。不过醒来看到 $SIVE 涨了 24.94% 还是挺开心的。
英文原文
@ClewyCat No, I’m very tired still. But it’s nice to wake up to $SIVE up 24.94%
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吐槽 Anthropic 模型
我最近接触过的 Anthropic Opus 4.6 和 4.7，可能都是最蠢的 LLM 了？ 它们是被石头砸到脑袋了吗。还是只是拿 $IREN 的投资者对话重新训练出来的？ 可能我过一阵子都不会再用了。 4.6 刚出来时感觉像 God-Mode，但现在却像是我最近接触过的最蠢 LLM。
英文原文
Both Anthropic's Opus 4.6 and 4.7 are probably the dumbest LLMs I've interacted with recently? Did they get hit in the head by a rock. Or just retrained off $IREN investor conversations? Probably not going to use it again for awhile. Felt like God-Mode when 4.6 first came out and just the stupidest LLM I've interacted with recently.
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SIVE 刚过 10 亿市值
有个有意思的事实，$SIVE 刚刚突破 10 亿美元市值门槛。 所以现在已经有少数美国机构可以买了（基金章程限制） 但绝大多数机构在它登陆纳斯达克之前还是买不了。 顺带一提： 如果最后真的能服务 $JBL、$AMD、$AAPL、$AMZN、$MSFT 等超大规模云供应链，那么 10 亿美元市值对美国机构来说其实只是零钱。 你只要看看 $LWLG，靠一份测试协议都能做到 19 亿美元市值。
英文原文
Fun fact, $SIVE just crossed the $1B MC threshold. So a select few US institutions are able to buy it now (fund mandates) However, the vast vast majority still can’t until they get listed on NASDAQ. Just an FYI: $1B valuations are spare change for institutional investors in US hyperscaler supply chains if they end up powering $JBL, $AMD, $AAPL, $AMZN, $MSFT and others. Just look at $LWLG, $1.9B MC off 1 testing agreement with $TSEM.
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ALRIB 仍在等待定价
关于 $ALRIB 没有新消息，我还是多头。 我只是让市场自己定价，不给目标位。 我倒是觉得，在 3 亿美元市值时，这家给 $MSFT 量子业务和其他量子点项目（比如 QD……以及硅光应用）供货的机器供应商，可能很快会吸引一些机构注意。我们拭目以待。
英文原文
There’s no new news with $ALRIB, I’m still long. I’m just letting markets price it in, not giving any targets. I do think at $300m MC, the machine supplier to $MSFT quantum, and other quantum dot programs like QD… and silicon photonic applications might get some institutional attention soon. We’ll see.
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LPK 主打玻璃基板和激光刻蚀卡点
@MickaelLacoste2 不是。玻璃基板才是下一波先进封装浪潮。 而 $LPK 在激光诱导深蚀刻上几乎是功能性垄断。 这更像是对下一代封装范式的纯度敞口，而且没有 SKC 那种拖累，也没有 $INTC 那种其他业务分散。
英文原文
@MickaelLacoste2 No. Glass substrates are the next advanced packaging wave. And $LPK has a functional monopoly over laser induced deep etching. It’s more of pure play exposure to the next packaging paradigm without the drag SKC has or other segments $INTC has.