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大概只有极少数人能做到
@Sandeman52 我的意思是……当然有可能？也许每几千个人里只有一个能真正做好。
英文原文
@Sandeman52 I mean… It’s definitely possible? Maybe like one in every few thousand ppl can do it properly.
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祝贺持有 SIVE 的收益
@philllyfanatic 恭喜！最后其实都是你自己做的决定，我只是分享了我对 $SIVE 的思路。 希望那能在明年变成 100 万美元以上。
英文原文
@philllyfanatic Congrats! You made all the decisions yourself in the end, I just share my thought process on $SIVE. Hope that turns into $1M+ next year.
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帮更多狗狗
@HandersonPhil 太好了，很高兴听到这个，想尽可能帮助更多狗狗。
英文原文
@HandersonPhil Yay! Happy to hear that, want to help as many dogs as possible.
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YSS 值得关注
@LNMDad 我现在没有持仓，但 $YSS 很有吸引力，因为我预计国防预算会继续向太空方向扩张。
英文原文
@LNMDad Don’t have open positions but $YSS is very compelling since I expect defense budgets to keep expanding into space
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SIVEF 因 Golden Dome 叙事走强
如果你想知道为什么 $SIVEF 今天又涨得更多。 $SIVE 作为 CHIPS Act 受益者： 现在很可能在为 Golden Dome 提供支持。 作为上游半导体供应商，因为 Sivers 的主客户 ALLSPACE 被 $YSS 收购了。 York 恰好又是一家国防主承包商，和太空军、太空发展局、国防部以及 Golden Dome 都有关联。 所以，Sivers 这家小小的瑞典公司，基本上通过一条后门，接入了美国太空建设链条。
英文原文
If you’re curious why $SIVEF is up even more today. $SIVE, as a CHIPS act recipient: Now likely powers the Golden Dome. As the upstream semi supplier since Sivers’ lead customer ALLSPACE got acquired by $YSS. York happens to be a national defense prime contractor with links to the Space Force, Space Development Agency, DoD, and Golden Dome. So Sivers, a mini Swedish company, basically got a backdoor to powering the US space buildout.
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JPM 也成军工了？
@rulerofbronze5 我还不知道 JPM 连那些大炮都算军工承包商。
英文原文
@rulerofbronze5 I didn’t know JPM was a military contractor too with those cannons.
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JPM 迎来男性申请潮
看起来 $JPM 今天涨了 1.29%，因为它似乎“据说”迎来了一波新的男性申请者。 https://t.co/vPYvLVBTL9
英文原文
Looks like $JPM is up 1.29% today as it’s anecdotally receiving an influx of new male applications. https://t.co/vPYvLVBTL9
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收到，补上信息了
@vlmkapital @kxshxl 好的，谢谢，这很有帮助。我漏掉了那个。
英文原文
@vlmkapital @kxshxl Okay thanks that’s helpful. I missed that
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被验证了
@Jamie18JB 终于被证明是对的。
英文原文
@Jamie18JB Vindicated
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LPK 是卡点而非纯投机
@jpm7019 $LPK 不是那样。按开发进度来看，$ALMU 更接近“投机”这个定义。 $LPK 已经主导了一个卡点，而且几乎所有半导体公司都在做认证。 现在只是猜这些半导体公司的量产爬坡会是什么样，以及这会怎样影响市值。
英文原文
@jpm7019 $LPK not exactly. $ALMU fits the definition more of speculation just going off development. $LPK is already dominates a chokepoint and is qualifying with almost every semi. It’s just guessing what volume ramp looks like for all the semi companies and how that affects MC.
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要求给出处而非猜测
@kxshxl CEO 在财报电话会上并没有这么说。 除非你能提供来源，否则我不认为他确认过任何关于机器出货量的数字。 也许你之前拿 ASP 和 TAM 的估算去推了那个数字？或者只是引用了 100 台机器报价的示例采购单。
英文原文
@kxshxl CEO didn’t say that in earnings call. I don’t think he confirmed any number around machine volume unless you can provide a source. Maybe you took ASP and former TAM estimates previously for that figure? Or just referenced the example PO for 100 machines quote.
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解读 LPKF 财报要看量产信号
关于 LPKF Laser < $LPK / $LPKFF> 财报的一些看法： 这很微妙，下面是市场可能漏掉的点： 如果你把财务数据孤立出来看，又不理解认证周期，那看起来就很糟。 财报电话会上关于量产爬坡的信号才是真正重要的。 1. “先进封装领域的潜在量产订单没有计入当前的基准指引” 任何在下半年落地的量产设备订单，都会立刻对他们的预期形成上行惊喜。（正面） 2. “LIDE 目前已在众多半导体客户的测试和研发环境中使用；预期后续订单……” 这确认了我们预期的情况，很多半导体公司都在对 $LPK 做认证。（正面） 3. “今年预计会有首批生产订单” 这意味着 2026 年下半年会确认量产爬坡拐点，这可能是市场漏掉的最大信号，而且这些内容没有计入任何预测。（非常正面） 从之前的采访里，我们还能拼出： 问：2027 年是否仍是玻璃基板进入大规模生产的起点？这个时间表还成立吗？ “是的。市场参与者正在为生产设备下单，第一季度已经录得初始订单。虽然挑战仍在，但我依然预计 2027 年会标志着大规模生产的开始。” 2027 年是玻璃核心基板的大规模生产，但 2026 年下半年才是 $LPK 量产订单的起点，而且**这些并不在任何预测里**。 财报已经确认了这些时间线。 基本上： -> 你不会在财务预测里看到和玻璃核心基板量产爬坡有关的任何内容，而这恰恰是美国投资者最关心的。 -> 单看财报，客观上很差，但如果你是按过去 12 个月而不是未来增长来建模，那才会这么看。 -> 已确认下半年开始爬坡。玻璃核心基板 2027 年进入量产。 如果有什么的话，这对玻璃核心基板量产爬坡的核心逻辑其实非常正面。 关键还是要看订单有多少。
英文原文
Thoughts on LPKF Laser < $LPK / $LPKFF> earnings: Very nuanced, here's what markets might have missed: If you look at the financials in isolation and don't understand qualification cycles, it's bad. The earnings call for volume ramp indicators are what's actually important. 1. "Potential volume orders in Advanced Packaging are not included in this baseline guidance" Any volume production equipment order that lands H2 will act as an immediate upside surprise to their projections. (positive) 2. "LIDE is currently in use by numerous semiconductor customers in test and R&D environments; the expected follow-up orders..." Confirmation of what we expected, with many semiconductor companies qualifying $LPK. (positive) 3. "First production orders expected this year" Inflection point of volume ramp confirmation H2 2026, this is probably the biggest signal markets missed + no projections included around that. (very positive) From previous interviews we can stitch together: Q: 2027 as the start of mass production for glass substrates. Does this timeline still hold? "Yes. Market players are preparing orders for production equipment, and initial orders have already been recorded in the first quarter. While challenges remain, I still expect 2027 to mark the beginning of mass production." 2027 is mass production of glass core substrates, but H2 2026 is start of mass production orders for $LPK, **which is not included in any forecasts**. We got confirmation of timelines from earnings. Basically: -> You won't see any projections/financials around glass core substrate related VOLUME RAMP which is the only thing American investors care about with this company. -> Earnings in isolation were objectively terrible, but you only care about this as a European if you model based on previous 12 months only (instead of future growth). -> Confirmation of volume ramp starting H2. Glass Core substrate mass production 2027. If anything, this was extremely positive for the core thesis about volume ramp for glass core substrates. We'll see how much the orders are though.
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机构嘴上劝退，实际上在买
@ontrialperiod 我就喜欢这种情况：机构嘴上告诉散户别在 15 亿市值时买。 结果他们自己却一路买了 6.5% 的流通盘。
英文原文
@ontrialperiod I like how institutions tell retail not to buy at $1.5B MC. The they causally bought 6.5% of the float on the way up.
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SIVE 仍被低估
@Berlinergy 我看到 $SIVE 到 2027 年会到 100 亿美元以上。 我不觉得大多数人或市场已经意识到它会映射到多少家超大规模云厂商供应商……而且他们也还没把 IP 收购带来的 TAM 扩张算进去。
英文原文
@Berlinergy I see $SIVE at $10B+ in 2027. Don’t think most people or markets realize how many hyperscaler suppliers they map to yet… also they didn’t factor in TAM expansion with IP acquisition yet either.
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meme trader 的标签未必准确
@kumant_soran 我的意思是，他们一直叫我“meme trader”，虽然我今年迄今点名的 16 只个股多头里，有不同的个股已经回报了 100% 以上。 也许现在轮到它发生了 lol
英文原文
@kumant_soran I mean they keep calling me a “meme trader” although 16 different individual longs YTD that I’ve called out returned 100%+. Maybe it’s happening now lol
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感谢补充 Lightmatter 线索
@Plaskpojken 是啊，我之前确实找到了 $SIVE 和 Lightmatter 的一些引用，但因为没找到像你那样的确认，就一直没写进评论里。 谢谢你指出来。
英文原文
@Plaskpojken Yeah I found some references to $SIVE and Lightmatter but never included it in my commentary since I couldn’t find confirmation like you did. Thanks for pointing it out.
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SOI 继续大涨
$SOI 这波已经很快拿到 +200% 的收益了。 如果你听我的，Soitec 今天又涨了 13.62%，对吗，匿名网友？ 我很喜欢这一点：当我最早提出这套 thesis 时，机构还告诉大家别在涨到 +30% 时买。 现在又翻了 2 倍…… 很多 X 账号之所以变火，就是因为大家不再相信“机构分析师评论”了，因为很多人其实是在和散户作对。
英文原文
Well that was a fast +200% gain with $SOI. Soitec up another 13.62% today if you listened anon? I love how when I first put out this thesis, institutions were telling people not to buy at +30%. Now it’s up another 2x… Reason a lot of X accounts get popular is people stopped trusting “institutional analyst commentary” since many work against retail.
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Lightmatter 直接买 SIVE 激光器
你提供的照片只是例子。但我一直猜 Lightmatter 很可能是客户，因为他们以前就提到过它。 但我指的是那句关于“客户”的报价：它们融资了 2.5 亿美元（Lightmatter 1.54 亿 + Celestial 1 亿），这更像是 Lightmatter 直接购买 $SIVE 激光器的证据。
英文原文
The photo you provided were just examples. But I always guessed Lightmatter was a likely customer because they referenced them before. But I was about the quote around "customers" that raised $250m (Lightmatter $154m + Celestial $100m), so that's more of evidence of direct relationships of Lightmatter buying $SIVE lasers.
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Lightmatter 似乎在用 SIVE 激光器
从这些参考资料看……Lightmatter 似乎确实在用 $SIVE 的激光器？ 这是全新的信息发现，对 Sivers 来说极其正面。 Lightmatter 是一家体量巨大的私营龙头（2024 年估值大约 44 亿美元），而 $TSM、$GFS、$TSEM、$AMKR 和 $ASX 都在扩展它的光学项目。 而 Lightmatter 的确需要光源…… $SIVE 还恰好和 $LITE 一起出现在 $GFS 的激光源供应商名单里，所以这些线索开始拼起来了？ 终端用户很可能就是你的超大规模云厂商，比如 $MSFT、$GOOGL（他们投资了）、$META 等，通过 Lightmatter-GUC 等路径进入。 我不认为市场已经把这些都定价进去了，因为整个供应链 BOM 都非常保密，而且很多只是推测。 但当 CPO 和下一代光子架构开始放量时，量产爬坡带来的营收会突然出现在资产负债表上。
英文原文
From the reference... it does look like Lightmatter uses $SIVE lasers? Which is brand new information discovery and extremely positive for Sivers. Lightmatter is a massive private leader (~$4.4B valuation back in 2024), with $TSM, $GFS, $TSEM, $AMKR, and $ASX scaling their optical program. And Lightmatter does require a light source... $SIVE also happens to be on the $GFS laser source suppliers alongside $LITE, so starting to put the dots together? End users are likely your hyperscalers like $MSFT, $GOOGL (they invested), $META, etc through Lightmatter-GUC and others. I don't think markets have priced all of this in, since all the supply chain BOM is very confidential + speculative. But when CPO and next-gen photonic architectures scale up, volume ramp revenue will appear out of nowhere on the balance sheet.
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1.4 亿市值对激光供应链太小
@TVAFR786 14 亿美元市值算小吗？ 尤其如果他们的激光器很可能服务于 $AMD CPO、$MRVL CPO、$JBL 1.6T LRO、$AAPL 硅光、Ayar（AlChip）、Lightmatter、O-Net 终端客户（亚洲超大规模云厂商）以及其他项目。
英文原文
@TVAFR786 $1.4B MC is tiny? Especially if their lasers likely power $AMD CPO, $MRVL CPO, $JBL 1.6T LRO, $AAPL Silicon Photonics, Ayar (AlChip), Lightmatter, O-Net End users (Asian Hyperscalers), and others.
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Celestial 可能是 SIVE 直接客户
很棒的发现。基本上从旧投资人材料和融资金额来看： 看起来 Celestial 曾经就是 $SIVE 的直接客户。 所以：$MRVL 现在大概率是在直接从 $SIVE 买激光器，而不是通过 Poet 购买（Poet 再买 Sivers 激光器来封装）。 因为 Celestial 最初就是围绕 Sivers 的激光器设计的。 Marvell 可能早就准备好通过垂直整合，绕开封装 IP 和组装环节，以获得更高利润率。 现在直接供货给 $MRVL，对 $SIVE 来说非常利好。
英文原文
Great find. Basically from old investor deck + fundraising amounts: Looks like Celestial has been direct customers of $SIVE. So: $MRVL is likely buying lasers direct from $SIVE now instead of through Poet (which bought Sivers lasers to package them). Since Celestial is designed around Sivers lasers originally. Marvell probably prepared to vertically integrate away packaging IP + assembly for higher margins anyway. Going direct to $MRVL is very bullish for $SIVE.
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财报前的收入缺口不该过度解读
@IkaKnight_ 我只是觉得 X 上很多人因为之前的营收缺口就慌了，这太好笑了，因为这明明还处在认证阶段。 这是前瞻性的东西，所以要等财报电话会。如果电话会是负面的，那这种恐慌才算合理。
英文原文
@IkaKnight_ I'm just laughing people on X are panicking over previous revenue miss when it's literally qualification stage. It's a forward looking, so need to wait for earnings call. If the call is negative, then any panic is justified.
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LPK 财报要看电话会而不是当期数据
$LPK / $LPKFF 的财报出来了。 我在 X 上看到很多非常愚蠢的评论。如果你想知道怎么分析认证周期公司，其实和 $AEHR 一样。 除非有特别糟糕的消息，否则没人会在意当期盈利。你在量产爬坡前营收少了 800 万欧元，也不代表什么。 LPKF 之所以值得做多，唯一原因就是 2027 年 LIDE 玻璃核心基板进入量产。 真正要看的，是两小时后的电话会，而不是当期财务数据，以及关于高量产和客户的 संकेत。 人们之前在 $AEHR 上也犯过同样的错误，因为看了旧财报就卖掉，而不是听电话会。
英文原文
$LPK / $LPKFF earnings are out. Seeing a lot of very dumb commentary on X. If you're wondering how to analyze qualification-cycle players, it's the same as $AEHR. Nobody cares about current earnings unless there's something extremely bad. If your revenue declines -8M euros before any volume ramp, it doesn't mean anything. The only reason why LPKF is a long anyway is 2027 LIDE glass core substrate mass production. Main thing to look at is earnings call in 2 hours not current financials and indication of high volume production + customers. People made this same mistake with $AEHR selling off on previous financials instead of listening to the call.
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NVDA/TSM 生态还有上行
@latent_value7 嗯……$NVDA / $TSM 之类现在都在用 MSSCorps，我觉得这还有很大上行空间。
英文原文
@latent_value7 Yeah... $NVDA / $TSM and others all using MSSCorps has pretty big upside imo.
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CPO 还没有量产爬坡
@siflower CPO 现在还没有量产爬坡。
英文原文
@siflower There's no volume ramp for CPO yet.
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CPO 检测市场的天花板很高
CPO 是下一代光子架构的圣杯。 这位 CEO 的说法是要“拿下 90% 的 CPO 检测市场”（其实就是接近 100%，但他们不能这么说，不然会涉及反垄断）。 如果能维持这个地位，从 14 亿美元市值涨到 50 亿至 100 亿美元，并不离谱。
英文原文
CPO is the holy grail of next-gen photonics architectures. The CEO's claim was to "seize a 90 percent share of the CPO inspection market" (basically 100% but they can't say that otherwise antitrust). $5-10B+ MC isn't far fetched from $1.4B if they manage to maintain their status.
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MSSCorps 在 CPO 检测上像垄断
我现在做多 MSSCorps（6830），市值大约 14 亿美元。 这看起来像是 CPO 检测环节的功能性垄断。 但市场可能把它和材料/失效分析混淆了，后者更像 MA-tek 和 iST 那样的寡头格局。 按客户映射来看： 1. $TSM 2. $NVDA 3. $AAPL 4. $AMAT 5. $LRCX 6. $ASML 7. $INTC 还有很大概率包括 $AVGO、联发科、三星、$MRVL 等等（他们也提到了欧盟）。 如果你感兴趣： - 台北时报把 TSM 说成是客户，Msscorps 为其提供先进材料和失效分析，还点名了苹果、英伟达、Lam、AMAT（也感谢 Latent 和我一起做尽调。英伟达那边还有通过 LinkedIn 之类看到的其他供应链关系） - 对 $AMSL 而言，《台北时报》在 2024 年 9 月 10 日写到：“ASML 采用了 Msscorps 超高灵敏度的光刻胶材料分析” - 对英特尔来说，材料分析实验室 MSSCORPS 已经拿下了英伟达和英特尔等大厂的订单（工业技术研究院） 至于检测（非破坏性红外漏检），他们几乎是垄断。 而且他们还积极使用诉讼（比如 Enli Tech 诉讼）来挡住竞争对手，我把这看成正面因素。 这带来了巨大的定价权和收益率，而且每个主要玩家都要经过他们。 CPO 检测市场也极其关键，和 $AXTI 在 InP 基板环节一样，这种巨大卡点具有纯粹的定价权和提价能力。 风险在于专利诉讼不一定按计划推进，但英伟达和其他超大规模云厂商大概率不会在 MSSCorps 赢了之后去找别家，因为他们不想承担风险。 所以这本身就构成了一个多年期的巨大优势。 超大规模云厂商不会等一个新兴竞争对手证明自己能赢再行动，也不会愿意承担这个风险。 我确实看到了 MSSCorps 因为在 CPO 的关键良率卡点上有机会重估，所以我选择做多（非投资建议，自己做功课），这就是我的思路。
英文原文
I am now long MSSCorps (6830) ~$1.4B MC This appears to be a functional monopoly in CPO for inspection. But markets might have conflated that with Material/Failure Analysis with MA-tek and iST (oligopoly). For customers from mapping: 1. $TSM 2. $NVDA 3. $AAPL 4. $AMAT 5. $LRCX 6. $ASML 7. $INTC And high probability $AVGO, MediaTek, Samsung, $MRVL, and others (they did mention EU too). If you're curious: - Taipei times names TSM as a client that Msscorps provides them with advanced material and failure analysis and name drops Apple, Nvidia, Lam, AMAT (also S/O to Latent for doing DD with me on this. there's other supply chain relationships to Nvidia through things like linkedin) - For $AMSL, Taipei Times, Sept 10, 2024 "ASML adopted Msscorps' ultra-sensitive materials analysis of photoresists" For Intel - Material analysis lab MSSCORPS has secured orders from major manufacturers such as Nvidia and Intel (Industrial Technology Research). For inspection (non-destructive infrared (IR) leakage detection), they're a monopoly. And have aggressively used litigation (like the Enli Tech lawsuit) to lock out rivals, which I view as a positive thing. This creates massive pricing power with yields and every major player goes through them. CPO inspection market is also extremely critical and like $AXTI in the InP substrate section, this massive chokepoint has pure pricing power with price hikes. The risk is the patent suit doesn't go as plan, but Nvidia and other hyperscalers aren't likely to go with other parties in case MSSCorps wins, so this creates a massive multi-year advantage anyway. Hyperscalers aren't going to wait to see how an emerging competitor is going to win or not + take the risk. I do see the massive re-rating potential with MSSCorp holding a critical yields chokepoint over CPO, so I went long (NFA, DYOR), this is just my thought process.
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时区里都有仓位
@ps_georg 我在所有时区里都有仓位，所以我喜欢尽量晚一点睡。
英文原文
@ps_georg I have positions in all timezones so I like to stay awake as long as possible.
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先看财报再判断重估幅度
@lazarusinvests 我觉得温和的 80% 到 100% 重估是有可能的。我并不指望它会复利几百个百分点。 这只是我当前方向性的看法；我还需要等两周后的财报，才能建立更准确的估值模型。
英文原文
@lazarusinvests A modest 80%-100% re-rating seems possible to me. I don't expect this to compound hundreds of percent. This is just my directional thoughts, I'll need to see their earnings in two weeks to create a more accurate valuation model.
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TOWA 或成 HBM4 上游受益者
是啊……我越看越觉得，市值约 13.4 亿美元的 $TOWA / $TOWCF（6315），可能会成为 SK 海力士、三星、$MU 在 HBM4 支出中的一个“捡漏”受益者。 它高度周期化，跟支出周期强相关。 但我们看到存储厂商的资本开支在全面上调。 这倒不是那种能 4 倍涨的标的…… 但我的猜测是，新一轮 HBM4 存储周期开始后，必须的资金流入激增会让它被显著重估。 尽管它在这轮新周期里似乎已经被大多数人忘了，但它在压缩建模流程上有垄断地位。 混合键合虽然只是去掉了一个步骤，但仍然需要 Towa（垄断企业往往会拿到更高溢价）。 我也不觉得这轮周期和上一轮一样，因为最近存储公司赚钱的速度实在太夸张了？ 只是我的想法，但如果我的判断没错……等大家都在建 HBM4 产线时，它应该会在 11 日周一（东京时间）的财报里体现出来？
英文原文
Yeah... the more I look into things, $TOWA / $TOWCF (6315) at ~$1.34b looks like a sleeper beneficiary for HBM4 spend from SK Hynix, Samsung, $MU. It’s hyper cyclical with spending cycles. But we’re seeing hikes in capex spend across the board from memory makers. Not exactly a 4x type play... But my guess is that it should get materially re-rated from a spike in unavoidable inflows for the start of the new HBM4 memory cycle anyway. And they appear to be a largely forgotten beneficiary for this new cycle despite their monopoly in compression modeling processes. Hybrid bonding just removes one step in the process but requires Towa anyway (monopolies tend to get higher premiums) I also don't think this cycle is like the last due to how much memory companies have been printing recently? Just my thoughts, but if my guess is right... it should show up in earnings on the Monday 11th (Tokyo Time) as everyone’s building out HBM4 lines?