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LPK 受益于玻璃核心基板与 CPO
我猜市场也认同我对 $LPK 的看法？ -> 当玻璃核心基板是下一波先进封装浪潮 -> 又是一个垄断卡点 -> 再叠加 CPO 应用。 通常就会一路起飞。 https://t.co/46u7msyDIl
英文原文
I guess markets agree with my take on $LPK? -> When you have glass core substrates as the next advanced packaging wave -> be a monopoly chokepoint -> add in CPO applications. It typically goes brrr. https://t.co/46u7msyDIl
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不值得出借
@Investmnt_Eagle 对，不值得拿去借出。
英文原文
@Investmnt_Eagle Yeah not worth it to lend
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SIVE 可能迎来 CHIPS Act 第二轮
提示一下……$SIVE 的 CHIPS Act 第二轮资金很快就要来了（这和 CHIPS Act 的续周期相一致） 美国政府不会随便把钱发给一家市值 10 亿美元的瑞典公司。 这非常不寻常。市场很可能漏掉了什么。 因为他们拿到了这些资金： -> $RTX 和 $ERIC 的波束成形器（空间/电信）。 -> BAE Systems 的 STAR 双工阵列（电子战中的雷达干扰）。 国防主承包商很可能正在用 Sivers 的微芯片 IP 来造最终产品。 至于最终产品……还有什么空间 + 军工承包商应用会涉及 LEO 卫星？我想你应该能猜到。 这些国防主承包商并不是要在太空里播放泰勒·斯威夫特的 YouTube 视频…… 但商业衍生品也可以用于 SpaceX / Amazon LEO Kuiper 这类应用。 不管怎样，你还拥有 AI 光子这条故事线，而这才是核心增长垂直领域。 我最兴奋的还是光子……但你也顺手得到了一家由美国 CHIPS Act 背书、嵌入 Raytheon 和 BAE Systems 的公司，去做那些他们在太空里想搞的黑科技。 只是没人知道精确时间线和应用，因为 CHIPS Act 国防合同就是这种性质。 但它也许会在未来的财报里突然出现。
英文原文
Hint... $SIVE CHIPS Act round 2 incoming soon (consistent with the CHIPS Act renewal cycle) The U.S. government doesn't just give out funding to random $1B Swedish companies. It's highly unusual. And there's probably something markets are missing. Since they got funding for: -> $RTX and $ERIC Beamformers (space/telecom). -> BAE Systems for STAR duplex arrays (radar jamming during electronic warfare) Defense Primes are likely using Sivers microchip IP to build the final products with this. As for the final products... What other space + military contractor applications are there involving LEO satellites? And I think you can guess. The defense primes aren't trying to play Taylor Swift Youtube videos in space... But the commercial spinoff can also be used for SpaceX/Amazon LEO Kuiper type applications. Regardless, you have the side of the AI photonics story, which is the core growth vertical. I'm most excited for photonics... but you also happen to get a company backed with U.S. CHIPS ACT embedded in Raytheon and BAE Systems for whatever black magic they want to do in Space. Just nobody knows exact timeline + applications because due to the nature of CHIPS ACT defense contracts. But it might appear randomly in financial statements down the road.
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IBKR UI 太烂但能忍
@labubu_trader 哈哈，我对 $IBKR 界面像垃圾这件事也有同感，但后来习惯了。 想象一下，他们只要拿出利润里的 15 万美元，就能请一个设计师重做 TWS、移动端和仪表盘。 希望 $HOOD 能往正确方向转向。
英文原文
@labubu_trader haha i felt the same with $IBKR UI being trash, but I got used to it. Imagine if they just spent like $150k on their billions of profit. for one designer to overhaul TWS, mobile and their dashboard Hope $HOOD pivots to the right direction.
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IBKR 目前强于 HOOD
现在确实是 $IBKR > $HOOD。 我也认为 Robinhood 有机会扭转局面……他们的界面更好，也更偏零售用户。 但就目前执行而言（取消期权的 payment for order flow）以及缺少国际业务，真的糟透了，所以目前显然还是 Interactive Brokers 更好。
英文原文
It’s true $IBKR > $HOOD currently. I do think Robinhood has the potential to turn that around though… they have a better UI and more retail-friendly platform. But just current execution (remove payment order flow for options) and lack of int. offerings is horrendous, so interactive brokers is clearly the better choice atm.
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美国优先也要保住上游供应链
@Winterrose America first 也包括要从亚洲合作伙伴或者欧盟机器供应商那里，保护自己的超大规模云供应链。 如果美国对欧盟股票的控制权不够，中国就会试图接管上游垄断，这过去十年我们已经看到了。
英文原文
@Winterrose America first also includes securing its hyperscaler supply chains from partners in Asia or machine suppliers in EU. If US doesn’t own enough control of equities in EU, China will try and take over upstream monopolies, as we’ve seen this past decade.
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HOOD 错过国际市场红利
是啊，国际市场本来就是 $HOOD 最明显的增长方向。 但他们错过了亚洲 / 欧盟股票当前这波巨大的上涨，因为他们太专注于预测市场和币上币。 现在还不算太晚，但他们现在的目标到底是什么，真的很奇怪。
英文原文
Yeah, international markets was the most obvious growth vector for $HOOD. Yet they missed out on the current massive run for Asian/EU equities because they focused too heavily on prediction markets and coin listings. Still not too late, but it’s very strange what their goals are now.
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HOOD 产品创新方向跑偏
$HOOD 真正该做的产品创新，本来应该是尽快支持国际股票交易。 结果他们反而加码“预测市场” + “抽奖” + 一堆新烂币上架，让散户乱七八糟地亏钱。 他们还把零售用户输给了 $IBKR，而后者现在已经支持韩国股票交易了。 尤其是受到台湾、韩国、欧洲、日本等国际股票增长的推动。 结果，这个季度 IBKR 新账户数量创了历史新高（这是基于我自己的定性体验）。 我认为 $HOOD 这次财报不及预期，是因为他们搞错了自己真正该帮助散户做什么。 如果他们能让散户大量交易国际股票，赚更多交易费、更多保证金使用、更多平台留存现金和财富增长等等，这才是这个平台的基础。 即便数字资产下行，事情也许本可以更好。
英文原文
Product innovation from $HOOD would have been enabling international stock trading ASAP. Instead they doubled down on "prediction markets" + "raffles" + new crapcoin listings where retail recklessly lose their money. They also lost retail to $IBKR that now enabled Korean stock trading. Especially due to international stock growth from Taiwah, Korea, Europe, Japan. As a result, we saw new IBKR accounts grow to an all time high this quarter (just from qualitative experiences). My opinion is $HOOD missed earnings since they lost track of what they should actually do to help out retail investors. If they had retail investors all spending tons of TX fees from int. Equities trading, likely more margin usage, fees, cash on platform, wealth appreciation, and so on, which is the basis of the platform. Maybe things would have gone better despite digital asset downturn.
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亚洲/欧盟股票不该按美股期权对待
是啊，很高兴听到别人也有同样感受。你提到的 Win Semi/HPS.A 是少数几个更罕见、保证金要求更低的例子。 但即便这些标的已经到了十亿美元市值，它们大多数时候还是会被收 100% 左右的维持保证金。 亚洲 / 欧盟的纯多头股票，不应该和美国短期期权一样对待，我希望 $IBKR 能稍微放宽一点限制。
英文原文
Yeah glad to hear others are feeling the same. Win Semi/HPS.A were a few of the rarer ones that had lower margin requirements as you mentioned. But even if they're in the billion MC range, they still get slapped with close to 100% maintenance margin most of the time. Long only equity in Asia/EU shouldn't be treated the same as US short dated options and I hope $IBKR eases restrictions a bit.
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HOOD 产品建议
@platochi 我这是在直接给 $HOOD 提供产品创新思路。 给亚洲股票开 2 倍保证金。
英文原文
@platochi Literally giving $HOOD product innovation ideas. 2x margin enabled on Asian equities.
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IBKR 的保证金规则太离谱
@Ren_aramb 对，$IBKR 在保证金要求上真的很会整活……而且波动一大它们就加码。 就像 100% 保证金和短期美股期权差不多，但你拿的明明只是亚洲 / 欧盟纯股票？ 连用期权做多的维持保证金都比这低，哈哈。
英文原文
@Ren_aramb Yeah $IBKR is trolling with the margin requirements... and they hike it on volatility too. Like 100% is the same as short dated US options, but instead you just holding pure equities in Asia/EU? Even going long with options has less maintenance margin lol.
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IBKR 海外股票保证金过高
呃……$IBKR + Portfolio Margin + 外国股票怎么回事？ 亚洲或欧洲的每一个名字都被直接打到 100% 维持保证金，毫无道理。 只是因为隔夜风险？ 你明明在做纯多头，却比短期美股期权还糟。
英文原文
Uh... what's with $IBKR + Portfolio Margin + Foreign Stocks? Every single name in Asia or Europe gets slapped to 100% maintenance margin for no reason. Just because something isn't in the US like in Korea, Europe, or Japan doesn't make it a toxic asset? Do you guys just use prime brokers or something to get around this?
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把资金集中到长期卡点
@NabQ321 直接把全部仓位押到那种会随着时间大幅扩张 TAM 的卡点里，比如先进封装或光子领域的玻璃基板。
英文原文
@NabQ321 full port it into a chokepoint that has massive TAM expansion over time like glass substrates for advanced packaging or photonics.
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NVIDIA 十年前的招募往事
没错，他们当时确实很幸运。$NVDA 在 2018 年还想招我去带一个 AI 团队……那会儿股价大概才 6 美元左右。 当时我没太当回事，因为除了研究以外，商业化 AI 应用还不多。Jensen 还主要在讲游戏和比特币挖矿。 如果按时间推算，可能会有 1 亿美元以上的薪酬，但我还是不觉得当时有人真的预料到 AI 会涨得这么猛。 那些买游戏显卡的人最后赚到改变人生的回报，确实挺厉害的。
英文原文
Yeah they got super lucky. $NVDA tried recruiting me to lead one of their AI teams in 2018... back at $6 or something. Didn't think too much of it since there wasn't many commercial AI applications aside from research. Jensen was still talking about gaming and Bitcoin mining. Might have been $100m+ comp over time though, still don't think anyone really expected AI to take off this much. Pretty impressive a lot of the gamer GPU investors made life changing returns
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中美 IPO 估值差异
对，这就是现在美国 IPO 的一个问题。 中国那边，Unitree 只给到 60 亿美元市值，而 SpaceX 的估值到 1.75 万亿美元，Anthropic/OpenAI 都到 1 万亿美元。美国市场的上行空间明显更受限。 但总会有下一个 Nvidia，正如最近 $AMD 从 3 美元涨到 300 多美元一样。
英文原文
Yeah, that's an issue with US IPO nowadays. Over in China, they're offering Unitree at $6B MC, while SpaceX gets 1.75T valuations and Antropic/OpenAI get 1T valuations. Upside is a lot more capped in US. But there's always the next Nvidia, as seen with $AMD going from $3 to $300+ recently.
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SIVE 不打算卖
我的意思是，$SIVE 是一只我不打算卖出的股票。 光子学的 TAM 对 AI、机器人、消费电子硬件（比如 $AAPL）和太空领域来说都大得离谱…… 而且 Sivers 正好站在下一代架构的最前沿，也是少数几家公开交易的龙头之一，另外两家大概是 $LITE 和 $COHR。 再加上下游 IP 收购，TAM 扩张也会非常大。
英文原文
I mean $SIVE is a stock I don't plan on selling. Photonics TAM is absolutely massive for AI, robotics, consumer hardware (eg. $AAPL), Space... And Sivers happens to be in the bleeding edge for next-gen arhictectures and one of the few publicly traded leaders apart from $LITE and $COHR. TAM expansion is also massive, especially with IP acquisition downstream.
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从小钱滚成巨额回报
哇……有人拿 $835 的 $NVDA 股票，最后变成了 83.8 万美元。 这条是在 $RDDT 上看到的。未实现收益是 +100,264.07%。 时间跨度从 2008 年 10 月到 2026 年 4 月。 说明只要起步不多，也确实有可能滚出世代财富。 只要找到下一个 Nvidia……很简单，对吧，各位？https://t.co/6KBjxNBMdD
英文原文
Wow... Someone turned $835 -> $838,000 from $NVDA shares. This was shared on $RDDT. Unrealized gain was +100,264.07%. From Oct 2008 -> April 2026. See, it is possible to make generational wealth without too much to start. Just gotta find the next Nvidia… easy, right chat? https://t.co/6KBjxNBMdD
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机构会慢慢吸筹再提示散户
这是真的。 我在 $SOI 还在 40 美元时点出来后，银行分析师里有几个人就开始阴阳怪气，之后它又涨了 125%。 $SIVE 也是一样，它已经涨了几百个百分点，而且还在继续涨。 但这些机构最后又会在 $IQE 到 $AXTI 这些名字上买回去。 通常机构会在几个月里悄悄吸筹，不抬价格，同时从散户手里拿走流通盘。 然后等涨很多了、自己已经持有公司 5% 之后，再回头告诉散户。 但如果市场更快地把这些因素定价进去，机构就只能在更高的位置买。 这本质上就是在超周期标的上抢跑机构。
英文原文
This is true. A few of bank analysts got passive aggressive when I called out $SOI back at $40 and it rose 125% since then. Same with $SIVE and it’s risen a few hundred percent (and keeps going up) But these same institutions are the one buying afterward on $IQE to $AXTI. Usually institutions have silent accumulation periods blocks over months to not raise the price + accumulate the float off retail. Then tell retail investors after it’s risen a lot and they own 5% of the company. But if markets price that in a lot faster, institutions are forced to buy a lot higher. Which is basically frontrunning institutions on supercycle names.
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LPK 是玻璃基板卡点
我真的很喜欢 $LPK。 它在玻璃基板上是一个关键的垄断卡点…… 这些又会用于先进封装和 CPO。 我在 1 月份就把它标成了潜在 10 倍股，但当时觉得还有点早。 不过……现在时间似乎到了？ “大约四年前，我们开始和一家半导体公司合作，开发用于直接 3D 波导成形的量产设备，”Lee 说。 “客户已经装上了 LPKF 的设备。” 也许是三星或 SKC Absolics，因为这件事发生在韩国？ 不过看起来现在动能正在起来，就像财报前的 $AEHR 一样，虽然还没到高量产阶段（2027），但在这个时间点让我觉得很有吸引力。 这是从认证 / 试点 -> 高量产的过渡期。
英文原文
I do really like $LPK. Critical monopoly chokepoint in glass substrates… Which are used for advanced packaging and CPO. I flagged it as a potential 10x back in Jan, but thought it was a bit early. However… time seems right now? "About four years ago, we began collaborating with a semiconductor company to develop mass-production equipment for direct 3D waveguide formation," Lee said. “The customer has already installed LPKF's equipment." Maybe Samsung or SKC Absolics since this was in Korea? Seems like momentum is ramping up now though like $AEHR pre-earnings, not quite high volume (2027), but around this time felt compelling for me. During the transition from qualification/pilot -> high volume.
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指出Shunsin就是富士康，垂直整合是其核心优势。
@troyofsparta @tw_crypto_ Shunsin其实就是富士康。他们实际上是垂直整合(vertical integration)的受益者。
英文原文
@troyofsparta @tw_crypto_ Shunsin is literally Foxconn. They’re actually the benefit of vertical integration.
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增发还卖给了套利基金
@kwongny 这大概和剩下那部分股份出售给可转债套利基金有关。起初我还以为只卖给了 $MTSI，但文件里还有一笔卖给了现有投资者。
英文原文
@kwongny Probably related to the rest of the share offering sold to convertible note arbitrage firms. Originally thought it was just $MTSI but there was another tranche sold to existing investors in the filing.
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CPO TW 名字在回调后可分批布局
@tw_crypto_ 像 Shunsin 这类 CPO 台湾名字，很多都从持仓分布上回调过头了，所以我在那个赛道里做定投。 像 $AAOI 这类的 CSP 之类的东西，看起来也挺有希望。
英文原文
@tw_crypto_ A lot of the CPO TW names like Shunsin overcorrected from disposition so I’m cost averaging in that sector. CSP on stuff like $AAOI and others seems promising too.
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LPK 是我最喜欢的名字之一
@snmart $LPK 是我最喜欢的名字之一。我一直很喜欢新赛道里的功能性垄断，比如玻璃基板。
英文原文
@snmart $LPK is one of my favorite names, I tend to be a fan of functional monopolies in new sectors like glass substrates.
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大回调只是图上的小波纹
一个大幅回调在整体走势图里看起来只是一个小小的波纹，这一点其实挺说明问题的。 这说明 “Serenity Stocks” 随时间的表现会怎样？ 除此之外，我开始觉得大家对预期定得太高了。 现在如果 $SOI 或 $HPS.A 不是每天涨 10%，大家就会失望。可在以前，年化 15% 回报都已经算很好了。 这种回调从拉远看其实很正常，哪怕它们有些还是美国媒体自己造成的。 通常如果某样东西是多年光学超级周期的核心组件……或者像变压器/开关设备那样积压了好几年。 晚上睡觉会轻松很多。
英文原文
The fact that a large correction looks like a little blip in the overall charts. Is pretty telling for how “Serenity Stocks” performs over time? That aside, I’m starting to think everyone’s expectations are too high. Now if $SOI or $HPS.A are not up 10% a day people are sad. Before 15% return a year was considered very good. Corrections like these are normal if you zoom out, even if they’re self-inflicted by US media. Usually if something is a core component in a multi year optical supercycle… Or are backlogged by multiple years for transformers/switchgear. It’s a lot easier to sleep at night.
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高波动需要自己有 conviction
很高兴你对 Serenity Stocks™ 也是这种看法。 我通常会偏爱高波动的名字，所以自己有 conviction 非常重要。我只是把思路讲出来，帮助其他人走到类似的结论！ 如果它们在回调里表现还不错，那就说明在正面的宏观环境下，它们只会表现得更好。
英文原文
Glad to hear that about the Serenity Stocks™. I usually like the ones with high volatility, so it’s important to have conviction yourself. I just provide the thought process to help others arrive at a similar conclusion! If they’re doing relatively well in corrections, that just means in positive macro environments, they’ll outperform even more.
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最蠢的抛售理由
这大概是我见过最蠢的抛售理由了……有人居然能给出来？ 我 99% 确定，像 $AAOI 或 $TSEM 这种名字根本不会在乎 OpenAI 目标被内部泄露一次这类事情。 但算法一看到这种主流媒体叙事就会嗨起来。 这就是为什么现在没人再完全相信它们能准确报道的完美例子。 不过话说回来，回调总是健康的，能让后面走出更高的新高。
英文原文
This has gotta be the dumbest selloff reason… someone could have provided? I am 99% sure names like $AAOI or $TSEM couldn’t care less about one internal leak of OpenAI’s high flying goals. But algorithms go reeee when they see mainstream media narratives like this. Perfect example on why nobody trusts them anymore for fully accurate reporting. That being said, corrections are always healthy to make higher highs.
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更看重基本面胜过宏观
@Muraum_ 对，我对宏观环境很敏感，尤其是降息概率这些东西。 但我还是更倾向于关注基本面，因为除非供应链里真的出现了有本质破坏性的事情，否则基本面通常跑赢宏观。 例如…… https://t.co/FhrwhfgMk8
英文原文
@Muraum_ Oh yeah I'm acutely aware of macro environment, especially rate cut odds and such. But i try and focus more on fundamentals more since they outperform macro unless there's something genuinely disruptive in supply chains. eg. https://t.co/FhrwhfgMk8
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MTSI 进来后长期更看多
@Mellokhai 这是个比较细腻的看法：长期看多，尤其是 $MTSI 作为投资者并帮忙清债之后。Macom 又不是日内交易标的，所以那 4500 万美元其实被锁住了。 如果另一半增发卖给了套利可转债的投资者，短期就偏空。
英文原文
@Mellokhai Nuanced, long term bullish especially with $MTSI as an investor and clearing debt. Macom is not a day trader so that 45M is locked up. Short term bearish if the other half of the offering was sold to investors that arbitrage convertible notes.
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Win Semi 是 HBM4 量产核心
所以 $SIVE 不负责产能扩张，真正负责量产爬坡的是 Win Semi。 Win 的体量非常大。$AVGO、$LITE、$QCOM、联发科、$MTSI、$NXPI 全都在用他们。 他们也在 $AAPL 和 SpaceX 的供应链里。所以只要你锁定 Win 的产能，超大规模云厂商的量产放量就是可去风险的。
英文原文
So $SIVE doesn't handle capacity scaling, Win Semi does volume ramp. Win is massive. $AVGO, $LITE, $QCOM, Mediatek, $MTSI, $NXPI, all use them. They're in $AAPL, SpaceX supply chains too. So volume scaling for hyperscalers is derisked if you secure allocation and do it through Win.
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POET 被替代意味着 Marvell 直连 SIVE
所以 $POET 做的是封装那一层的事情。 如果 $MRVL 放弃了 Poet，意思就是 Marvell 认为自己可以把那一层垂直整合进 Celestial，并且直接自己买激光器（不只是 nda 纠纷那么简单）。 Marvell 还是得买激光器。我相信他们会准备多来源合同，但我不认为 $NVDA 会把分配额度分给 $MRVL。 这也是为什么 $SIVE 很可能仍然是直接供货给 Marvell 的激光供应商，因为它们已经符合 Celestial 的规格，这样就能直接去掉一个中间层玩家。
英文原文
So $POET does the packaging side of things. If $MRVL dropped Poet, it means Marvell felt they could vertically integrate that layer into Celestial and just buy lasers directly themselves (not just the nda dispute). Marvell would still need to buy lasers. I'm sure they're planning multi-source contracts but I don't think $NVDA would share allocation to $MRVL. Which is why $SIVE is likely still the laser supplier direct to Marvell since they fit celestial specs already, and that just cuts out a middleware player.