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机构会慢慢吸筹再提示散户
这是真的。 我在 $SOI 还在 40 美元时点出来后，银行分析师里有几个人就开始阴阳怪气，之后它又涨了 125%。 $SIVE 也是一样，它已经涨了几百个百分点，而且还在继续涨。 但这些机构最后又会在 $IQE 到 $AXTI 这些名字上买回去。 通常机构会在几个月里悄悄吸筹，不抬价格，同时从散户手里拿走流通盘。 然后等涨很多了、自己已经持有公司 5% 之后，再回头告诉散户。 但如果市场更快地把这些因素定价进去，机构就只能在更高的位置买。 这本质上就是在超周期标的上抢跑机构。
英文原文
This is true. A few of bank analysts got passive aggressive when I called out $SOI back at $40 and it rose 125% since then. Same with $SIVE and it’s risen a few hundred percent (and keeps going up) But these same institutions are the one buying afterward on $IQE to $AXTI. Usually institutions have silent accumulation periods blocks over months to not raise the price + accumulate the float off retail. Then tell retail investors after it’s risen a lot and they own 5% of the company. But if markets price that in a lot faster, institutions are forced to buy a lot higher. Which is basically frontrunning institutions on supercycle names.
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LPK 是玻璃基板卡点
我真的很喜欢 $LPK。 它在玻璃基板上是一个关键的垄断卡点…… 这些又会用于先进封装和 CPO。 我在 1 月份就把它标成了潜在 10 倍股，但当时觉得还有点早。 不过……现在时间似乎到了？ “大约四年前，我们开始和一家半导体公司合作，开发用于直接 3D 波导成形的量产设备，”Lee 说。 “客户已经装上了 LPKF 的设备。” 也许是三星或 SKC Absolics，因为这件事发生在韩国？ 不过看起来现在动能正在起来，就像财报前的 $AEHR 一样，虽然还没到高量产阶段（2027），但在这个时间点让我觉得很有吸引力。 这是从认证 / 试点 -> 高量产的过渡期。
英文原文
I do really like $LPK. Critical monopoly chokepoint in glass substrates… Which are used for advanced packaging and CPO. I flagged it as a potential 10x back in Jan, but thought it was a bit early. However… time seems right now? "About four years ago, we began collaborating with a semiconductor company to develop mass-production equipment for direct 3D waveguide formation," Lee said. “The customer has already installed LPKF's equipment." Maybe Samsung or SKC Absolics since this was in Korea? Seems like momentum is ramping up now though like $AEHR pre-earnings, not quite high volume (2027), but around this time felt compelling for me. During the transition from qualification/pilot -> high volume.
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指出Shunsin就是富士康，垂直整合是其核心优势。
@troyofsparta @tw_crypto_ Shunsin其实就是富士康。他们实际上是垂直整合(vertical integration)的受益者。
英文原文
@troyofsparta @tw_crypto_ Shunsin is literally Foxconn. They’re actually the benefit of vertical integration.
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增发还卖给了套利基金
@kwongny 这大概和剩下那部分股份出售给可转债套利基金有关。起初我还以为只卖给了 $MTSI，但文件里还有一笔卖给了现有投资者。
英文原文
@kwongny Probably related to the rest of the share offering sold to convertible note arbitrage firms. Originally thought it was just $MTSI but there was another tranche sold to existing investors in the filing.
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CPO TW 名字在回调后可分批布局
@tw_crypto_ 像 Shunsin 这类 CPO 台湾名字，很多都从持仓分布上回调过头了，所以我在那个赛道里做定投。 像 $AAOI 这类的 CSP 之类的东西，看起来也挺有希望。
英文原文
@tw_crypto_ A lot of the CPO TW names like Shunsin overcorrected from disposition so I’m cost averaging in that sector. CSP on stuff like $AAOI and others seems promising too.
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LPK 是我最喜欢的名字之一
@snmart $LPK 是我最喜欢的名字之一。我一直很喜欢新赛道里的功能性垄断，比如玻璃基板。
英文原文
@snmart $LPK is one of my favorite names, I tend to be a fan of functional monopolies in new sectors like glass substrates.
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大回调只是图上的小波纹
一个大幅回调在整体走势图里看起来只是一个小小的波纹，这一点其实挺说明问题的。 这说明 “Serenity Stocks” 随时间的表现会怎样？ 除此之外，我开始觉得大家对预期定得太高了。 现在如果 $SOI 或 $HPS.A 不是每天涨 10%，大家就会失望。可在以前，年化 15% 回报都已经算很好了。 这种回调从拉远看其实很正常，哪怕它们有些还是美国媒体自己造成的。 通常如果某样东西是多年光学超级周期的核心组件……或者像变压器/开关设备那样积压了好几年。 晚上睡觉会轻松很多。
英文原文
The fact that a large correction looks like a little blip in the overall charts. Is pretty telling for how “Serenity Stocks” performs over time? That aside, I’m starting to think everyone’s expectations are too high. Now if $SOI or $HPS.A are not up 10% a day people are sad. Before 15% return a year was considered very good. Corrections like these are normal if you zoom out, even if they’re self-inflicted by US media. Usually if something is a core component in a multi year optical supercycle… Or are backlogged by multiple years for transformers/switchgear. It’s a lot easier to sleep at night.
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高波动需要自己有 conviction
很高兴你对 Serenity Stocks™ 也是这种看法。 我通常会偏爱高波动的名字，所以自己有 conviction 非常重要。我只是把思路讲出来，帮助其他人走到类似的结论！ 如果它们在回调里表现还不错，那就说明在正面的宏观环境下，它们只会表现得更好。
英文原文
Glad to hear that about the Serenity Stocks™. I usually like the ones with high volatility, so it’s important to have conviction yourself. I just provide the thought process to help others arrive at a similar conclusion! If they’re doing relatively well in corrections, that just means in positive macro environments, they’ll outperform even more.
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最蠢的抛售理由
这大概是我见过最蠢的抛售理由了……有人居然能给出来？ 我 99% 确定，像 $AAOI 或 $TSEM 这种名字根本不会在乎 OpenAI 目标被内部泄露一次这类事情。 但算法一看到这种主流媒体叙事就会嗨起来。 这就是为什么现在没人再完全相信它们能准确报道的完美例子。 不过话说回来，回调总是健康的，能让后面走出更高的新高。
英文原文
This has gotta be the dumbest selloff reason… someone could have provided? I am 99% sure names like $AAOI or $TSEM couldn’t care less about one internal leak of OpenAI’s high flying goals. But algorithms go reeee when they see mainstream media narratives like this. Perfect example on why nobody trusts them anymore for fully accurate reporting. That being said, corrections are always healthy to make higher highs.
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更看重基本面胜过宏观
@Muraum_ 对，我对宏观环境很敏感，尤其是降息概率这些东西。 但我还是更倾向于关注基本面，因为除非供应链里真的出现了有本质破坏性的事情，否则基本面通常跑赢宏观。 例如…… https://t.co/FhrwhfgMk8
英文原文
@Muraum_ Oh yeah I'm acutely aware of macro environment, especially rate cut odds and such. But i try and focus more on fundamentals more since they outperform macro unless there's something genuinely disruptive in supply chains. eg. https://t.co/FhrwhfgMk8
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MTSI 进来后长期更看多
@Mellokhai 这是个比较细腻的看法：长期看多，尤其是 $MTSI 作为投资者并帮忙清债之后。Macom 又不是日内交易标的，所以那 4500 万美元其实被锁住了。 如果另一半增发卖给了套利可转债的投资者，短期就偏空。
英文原文
@Mellokhai Nuanced, long term bullish especially with $MTSI as an investor and clearing debt. Macom is not a day trader so that 45M is locked up. Short term bearish if the other half of the offering was sold to investors that arbitrage convertible notes.
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Win Semi 是 HBM4 量产核心
所以 $SIVE 不负责产能扩张，真正负责量产爬坡的是 Win Semi。 Win 的体量非常大。$AVGO、$LITE、$QCOM、联发科、$MTSI、$NXPI 全都在用他们。 他们也在 $AAPL 和 SpaceX 的供应链里。所以只要你锁定 Win 的产能，超大规模云厂商的量产放量就是可去风险的。
英文原文
So $SIVE doesn't handle capacity scaling, Win Semi does volume ramp. Win is massive. $AVGO, $LITE, $QCOM, Mediatek, $MTSI, $NXPI, all use them. They're in $AAPL, SpaceX supply chains too. So volume scaling for hyperscalers is derisked if you secure allocation and do it through Win.
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POET 被替代意味着 Marvell 直连 SIVE
所以 $POET 做的是封装那一层的事情。 如果 $MRVL 放弃了 Poet，意思就是 Marvell 认为自己可以把那一层垂直整合进 Celestial，并且直接自己买激光器（不只是 nda 纠纷那么简单）。 Marvell 还是得买激光器。我相信他们会准备多来源合同，但我不认为 $NVDA 会把分配额度分给 $MRVL。 这也是为什么 $SIVE 很可能仍然是直接供货给 Marvell 的激光供应商，因为它们已经符合 Celestial 的规格，这样就能直接去掉一个中间层玩家。
英文原文
So $POET does the packaging side of things. If $MRVL dropped Poet, it means Marvell felt they could vertically integrate that layer into Celestial and just buy lasers directly themselves (not just the nda dispute). Marvell would still need to buy lasers. I'm sure they're planning multi-source contracts but I don't think $NVDA would share allocation to $MRVL. Which is why $SIVE is likely still the laser supplier direct to Marvell since they fit celestial specs already, and that just cuts out a middleware player.
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别轻易跟单陌生人
@XtineFang 如果这事是真的那也太好笑了，但我觉得在 X 上随便 copy trade 一个陌生人并不是好主意！
英文原文
@XtineFang that's hilarious if true, i dont think it's a good idea to copy trade a random on x tho!
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日本散户持仓是好信号
我很高兴日本社区在研究之后开始建 $SIVE 仓位！ 更强的国际股东基础总是正面的。 至于我的一些看法，市场现在看起来像这样： 1. $NVDA 把 $LITE / $COHR 的分配额度买走了 2. $AMD 的 CPO 走的是 $GFS + $SIVE / Win，剩下的激光供应可能会给 $LITE，如果还有分配的话。 3. 还有……$MRVL 的 CPO 不管怎样都需要激光器。 $SIVE 看起来是最后几家纯 merchant laser 供应商之一。 所以 Marvell 大概率会直接用 $SIVE（本来就符合 Celestial 规格），后面再多来源（也许是 $MTSI）。之后他们再把进入 Celestial 的中介封装 IP 垂直整合掉。 支持这个判断的有一些有意思的点： -> Ayar 把 $MTSI 和 $LITE 从官网上删掉了，改用了 $SIVE 作为主要供应商。Ayar 和 AlChip/GUC 等都有连接。 -> 如果看 $GFS 的幻灯片，在 $AMD 把 CPO 项目交给 GlobalFoundries 之后，只剩下 $SIVE 和 $LITE 两家公众公司。 -> $SIVE 很可能从去年开始就和 Win 有激光产能爬坡协议。 $NVDA 很可能还没把这些激光产能完全分配完，所以像 $JBL、$AMD 以及其他公司会把溢出订单给 Sivers。 因为 $LITE 已经暗示 2028 年的产能基本满了。 我可能也有错，但基于公开信息来看，情况就是这样。 至于为什么我认为它是个好长线： -> Sivers 基本上过去没怎么暴露在 800G 或更早的代际里。 -> 欧洲市场按过去 12 个月营收定价……所以之前估值一直被压得很低。 -> 它们拿到了 $NVDA 造成的超额需求。 但它们也正好站在 CPO 和甚至下一代 1.6T（$JBL LRO）扩产的最前沿，明年就会开始。 然后到 2027 年下半年或 2028 年，还能扩到硅光等相邻领域，比如可能的 $AAPL 消费设备。 或者 FMCW 4D AI 公司，比如 $AEVA。 这么多年开发，终于在明年要开花结果了。 我个人觉得市场漏掉了一个大东西，公开信息会随着时间推移慢慢被大家通过供应链关系、网站挖掘或者演示材料发现。 超大规模云厂商供应商不会无缘无故选一家 10 亿美元市值的瑞典激光公司。 和 $JBL 的直接合同就是最大的信号。 这也是我为什么高 conviction 做多。
英文原文
I'm happy Japanese communities started positions in $SIVE after doing research! A stronger international shareholder base is always positive. As for some thoughts, my read on the market looks like: 1. $NVDA bought out allocation from $LITE / $COHR 2. $AMD CPO went with $GFS + $SIVE / Win for remaining laser supply maybe $LITE if there’s still allocation. 3. And… $MRVL CPO will need lasers regardless. $SIVE looks like one of the last remaining pure play merchant laser suppliers. So Marvell will go with $SIVE (fits Celestial specs already) directly with multi-source down the road (maybe $MTSI). After they vertically integrate away interposer packaging process IP that feeds into Celestial. Just some interesting things to back that up: -> Ayar removed $MTSI and $LITE from their website and went with $SIVE as primary. Ayar’s connected to AlChip/GUC and others. -> If look at the $GFS slide there's only two public players with $SIVE and $LITE after $AMD went with Globalfoundries for their CPO program. -> $SIVE likely has agreements with Win since last year for laser capacity scaling. $NVDA likely hasn't fully allocated that laser supply, so the remaining companies like $JBL, $AMD, and others go to Sivers for overflow. Since $LITE signaled they were already fully allocated for 2028. I could be wrong, but just based on public information that’s what it looks like. As for why I think it's a good long: -> Sivers also basically had no exposure to 800G or previous generations. -> European markets price in previous 12 months revenue... hence previous depressed valuations -> they get all the hyperscaler overflow created by market panic from $NVDA But they also happen to be in the bleeding edge of CPO and even for gen-2 1.6T ( $JBL LRO) scaling next year in 2027. Then for H2 2027 or 2028, they scale in adjacent areas like Silicon Photonics for likely $AAPL consumer devices. Or FMCW 4D AI companies like $AEVA. Many many years of development, finally coming to fruition next year. I personally think markets are missing something big here, that the public uncovers over time with mapping hyperscaler relationships, website digging, or presentation slides. Hyperscalers suppliers don't randomly choose a $1B Swedish laser company for no reason. The direct contract with $JBL was the biggest signal of that. And it’s my high conviction long moving forward.
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LITE 和 AAOI 的比喻
@offermemoneyXYZ $LITE 是龙虾和最后一道 surf and turf。 $AAOI 是那个也卖最后一道 surf and turf 的蒸汽锅厨师。 但他们又想回去养红龙虾。
英文原文
@offermemoneyXYZ $LITE is a lobster and the final surf and turf. $AAOI is the steamer who also sells the final surf and turf. But they want to go back to farming red lobsters as well.
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西语回复
@Bigmug286016 当然可以！我会说一点西班牙语。非常感谢你的评论。
英文原文
@Bigmug286016 por supuesto! puedo hablar un poco espanol. muchas gracias por tu comentario.
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韩语社区交流很开心
@PhotonCap 和韩国光子学社区交流也真的很有趣，哈哈。 非常感谢你帮助把这一切变成可能。 我非常期待接下来会发生什么！
英文原文
@PhotonCap 한국의 포토닉스 커뮤니티와 소통하는 것도 정말 재밌네요 ㅋㅋ. 이 모든 걸 가능하게 도와주셔서 감사합니다. 앞으로 어떤 일들이 펼쳐질지 너무 기대됩니다!
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感谢日本社区
@beauty_oe 谢谢！也特别感谢让这件事成真的日本社区各位。 把这些想法传播到世界其他地区真的很有意思。
英文原文
@beauty_oe ありがとうございます！そして、これを実現させてくれた日本のコミュニティの皆様に特別な感謝を申し上げます。 アイデアを世界の他の地域へ広めるのは楽しいですね。
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2 万订阅太夸张了
我猜……匿名网友终于听进去了？ 对 X 上一个普通人来说，2 万订阅真的很夸张。 https://t.co/0Wyq4WdZjl
英文原文
I guess... Anon finally listened? 20,000 subscribers is unreal for some random on X. https://t.co/0Wyq4WdZjl
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先做研究再公开
@tim_pscl 我会做一个完整名单然后公开，现在我还在研究所有东西。
英文原文
@tim_pscl I'll make a full list and release it to the public, just doing research into everything right now.
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10 分好评
@CMSinvestments 10/10
英文原文
@CMSinvestments 10/10
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想长仓 SM
@longwashere 我想做多 041510，SM。如果我买到足够多的股份，也许就能见到 Aespa。
英文原文
@longwashere I wanted to long 041510, SM. If I acquire enough shares, maybe I can meet Aespa.
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IBKR 意外帮我拉增长
@ZacSazerac999 我这是无意中在帮 $IBKR 拉零售增长，哈哈。 不过很高兴听到这个！Interactive Brokers 的执行最好，所以你长期来看确实会省下不少。 只是他们的 UI 真的还有很多要改。
英文原文
@ZacSazerac999 I’m inadvertently hard carrying $IBKR retail growth lol. But glad to hear that! interactive brokers has the best execution so you’ll actually save up long term. Their UI can use a lot of work though.
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IBKR 开始支持韩国股票
哇，不会吧。 $IBKR 现在已经有韩国股票了。 这会很有意思，我之前有很多想法都没法做多。
英文原文
Woah no way. $IBKR has Korean stocks now. This is going to be fun, I had a lot of ideas in mind I couldn’t long.
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所以我就直说了：市值 13.5 亿美元的 Towa（6315）…… 它是 HBM4（压缩成型）上很罕见、活生生的垄断定义。 虽然今年到现在几乎没怎么涨，但像 $MU、SK 海力士、三星这些存储厂商都是他们的客户。而且每一家存储厂商的财报都在指向大幅增加 capex。 就连从 $TSM 的财报也能看出来，所有主要半导体公司都在经历一轮巨额资本开支周期，以满足 AI 需求。 三大存储厂商也都从 HBM3E 和 NAND 里赚得很猛……所以下一轮 capex 周期大概不会像上一轮那样了（意思就是花得会更多）。 像 $ASML 一样，这种东西周期性极强，但我想在未来几个月的 HBM4 capex 爆发里拿到敞口。 我想把这个名字和 $LPK（玻璃核心基板）一起放到大家视野里，因为它们都是功能性垄断。 但我确实觉得现在这个时间点刚刚好，毕竟所有机器供应商都在大幅重估，而它相对还是平的。 这也不算什么新发现，因为之前还有别的分析师和一些随机关注者提过这个名字，但希望我这次把时点抓对了。 （免责声明：我确实持仓，这只是我自己想法的 TLDR，请不要跟单）
英文原文
So just putting it out there: Towa (6315), at $1.35B... Is a rare, living definition of monopoly over HBM4 (compression molding). It's been kinda flat YTD, but every memory company like $MU, Sk Hynix, Samsung are their customers. And each of the memory company earnings signaled massive capex increases. Even as seen with $TSM earnings, every major semi is going through a massive capex cycle to meet AI demand. And all three memory makers have printed from hbm3e and nand... so the next capex cycle is probably not like the last (meaning a lot more spend). Like $ASML, this is hyper-cyclical but I wanted exposure to the upcoming HBM4 capex ramp over these next few months. Thought I'd put this name on people's radar alongside $LPK (glass core substrates) as a functional monopoly. But I do feel like this timing is about right while every machine supplier is having a massive re-rating yet this was relatively flat. Not exactly a new find, since a few other analysts + random followers had this name but hope I get the timing right. (Disclaimer: I do hold positions, this just TLDR of my own thoughts, please don’t copy trade)
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回复确认自己持有仓位
@TedWilliams1930 是的，我有仓位
英文原文
@TedWilliams1930 Yep I have positions
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存储链条继续起飞
从 $MU 到 $EWY（SK 海力士、三星）再到 $SNDK，存储相关名字最近都在疯狂起飞。 除了三大厂之外，还有 NAND 或台湾的名字，比如南亚科。 现在也许是看看 Towa（6315）的好时机，用来捕捉 HBM4 上游垄断的 capex 周期？ https://t.co/VZPwzB0SFK
英文原文
Memory names from $MU to $EWY (SK Hynix, Samsung) and $SNDK are going brrrr lately. Aside from the big three, then your NAND or TW names like Nanya. Might be a good time to look at names like Towa (6315) to capture upstream monopoly capex cycles for hbm4? https://t.co/VZPwzB0SFK
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激光卡点的比喻
@platochi 我不知道大家是不是没理解激光卡点，所以我能给的最好类比就是龙虾。
英文原文
@platochi Idk people didn’t understand the laser chokepoint so best analogy I can give is lobsters
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所有餐厅都同源采购
@zoroinvests 那他们就换一家餐厅。 但所有餐厅其实都从同一家缅因州红蓝龙虾养殖户那里进货。
英文原文
@zoroinvests Then they switch restaurants. But all the restaurants source their lobsters from the same Maine Red and Blue lobster farmers.