全部推文
共 6399 条 · 第 51 / 214 页 · 滚到底自动加载更多
-
找到下跌原因
@_stockResearch 哈哈，找到下跌的原因了。
英文原文
@_stockResearch lol found the reason for the drop
-
龙虾类比
假设 $SIVE、$LITE 是做特制的蓝色和红色缅因龙虾。 这非常稀有，没多少人能做出来。 $POET 负责把龙虾蒸熟，并装进即食容器里。 $MRVL 把这些龙虾尾买来，和西兰花、牛排一起装盘。 然后以最高价格卖给高端客户。 Marvell 以供应蓝色龙虾尾而闻名。 但也能一直卖红色的，而且它更容易继续卖他们已经习惯的蓝色款。 红色龙虾农场主也可以花些功夫转产蓝色龙虾，但养出来需要时间。 但……碰巧 Marvell 的竞争对手 Nvidia 把所有红龙虾都买去给自己的餐厅用了。 最后，他们还是需要那些稀有的蓝色缅因龙虾。只不过决定自己来蒸。 这就是 $POET 和 $MRVL 的情况。他们大概率会直接自己去买龙虾，因为你没法凭空变出蓝龙虾。
英文原文
Pretend $SIVE, $LITE make specialized blue and red maine lobsters. Very rare, not many people can do. $POET steams the lobsters and prepares it in a ready-to-go container. $MRVL buys those lobster tails, puts it together on a plate with broccoli and steak. Then serves it at the highest price to high end customers. Marvell is famous for serving Blue lobster tails. But can always serve Red ones, and it’s easier to keep serving Blue that they’re used to. And it’s also possible for the Red lobster farmer to shift to Blue lobsters with some effort, but it takes time to raise those lobsters. But… it just so happens Marvell’s competitor Nvidia bought out all the Red Lobsters for their restaurant. In the end, they still need those rare blue Maine lobsters. But just decided to steam it themselves. That’s $POET and $MRVL situation. It’s likely they’ll just go buy lobsters directly since you can’t just spawn Blue lobsters.
-
serenity stock 这个说法不错
@notthreadguy 我喜欢 “serenity stock” 这个说法。
英文原文
@notthreadguy I like the term serenity stock
-
MTSI 不是短线股
@6m3k4z $MTSI 不是日内交易标的。
英文原文
@6m3k4z $MTSI is not a day trader.
-
MTSI 参股 IQE 怎么会看空
@JeremyMaine4 $MTSI 想买下 $IQE 的债务并成为战略投资者？这怎么可能是利空。
英文原文
@JeremyMaine4 $MTSI plans to buy $IQE out of debt and be a strategic investor? How could this be bearish.
-
供应链不同层级不能混为一谈
@soscoder 它们处在供应链的不同环节。就像问 $CMG 的墨西哥卷饼能不能当成 AI 领域的 $NVDA GPU 替代品一样。
英文原文
@soscoder They're different parts of the supply chain. It's like asking if $CMG burritos be an $NVDA GPU alternative to AI.
-
MTSI 接手 IQE 是大利好
@LNMDad $MTSI 接手 $IQE 的债务并成为战略投资者，这非常正面。
英文原文
@LNMDad This is incredibly positive having $MTSI take $IQE out of debt and be a strategic investor.
-
MTSI 拟投 IQE 4500 万美元
刚刚，$MTSI 计划向 $IQE 投资 4500 万美元，并进入董事会。 我说什么来着，匿名网友？？Landmark 早就产能过剩了…… + IQE 在光子供应链里本来就是结构性卡点，市值才 1 亿美元时就已经是这样了。 这笔交易也是为了锁定长期外延晶圆供应。 https://t.co/lS2TGFI6v6
英文原文
Just now, $MTSI looking to invest $45 Million into $IQE and sit on the board. What did I say anon??? Landmark was overcapacity... + IQE was a structural chokepoint in photonics the supply chain back at $100M MC. This deal is also to secure long term epiwafer supply. https://t.co/lS2TGFI6v6
-
AAOI 也可能是潜在客户
谢谢提醒。 $AAOI 也有可能是其中之一，因为他们在 OFC 上宣布了一个 ELSFP。 他们通常都是自家代工，然后卖成品光模块。他们有这种可选性。 但我不认为这和 $SIVE 设计进 Celestial 的架构是一样的？我得再研究一下。
英文原文
Thanks for reminding me. It's possible for $AAOI could to be one since they announced a ELSFP at OFC. They usually just do captive and sell the finished optical transceivers. They have the optionality to. But I don't think it matches the same architecture that $SIVE designed into Celestial? Will need to look into it more.
-
MRVL 可能直接向 SIVE 采购
@mpunaskar 这件事挺微妙的，不算完全正面，但也可能最终更正面。 我猜 $MRVL 很可能会直接向 $SIVE 采购。 直接对接超大规模云厂商，比如 Sivers + $JBL，要比中间再加一家公司正面得多。
英文原文
@mpunaskar It's nuanced, it's not positive but could end up more positive. It's very likely $MRVL just buys directly from $SIVE is my guess. Going direct to hyperscaler like Sivers + $JBL is much more positive than adding in another company in the middle.
-
材料和封装要分开看
它们都处在供应链的不同层级。$AXTI 生产的是光子相关一切所需的材料。我手里还是有 AXT 仓位。 如果超大规模云厂商垂直整合带来一些细节变化，封装层的玩家可能会受影响。 但直接卖掉任何激光或上游玩家都没什么道理，对一些人来说反而是不错的买点。
英文原文
They're all different parts of the supply chains. $AXTI makes the materials needed for anything to do with photonics. I still have my AXT positions. Packaging layer players might be impacted given nuances of hyperscaler vertical integration. But selling off any laser or upstream player doesn't make much sense and it's a good buying opportunity for some.
-
激光和封装是两码事
这显然不是一回事。激光和封装在光学供应链里是两个实质上不同的环节。 如果我的 thesis 失效了，我会像当初对 $XLU 和降息那样坦白说出来。 但我对 $SIVE 仍然非常看多，因为我还是认为 $MRVL 会为了 Celestial 直接从他们那里买，然后把 $POET 的封装流程垂直整合掉。
英文原文
It's clearly not. Laser and packaging are two materially different parts of optical supply chains. I would be transparent if the thesis breaks like I did with $XLU and rate cuts. But I'm incredibly bullish on $SIVE since I still think $MRVL just buys directly from them for Celestial and vertically integrates the $POET packaging process.
-
LITE/COHR 产能大概率已给 NVDA
$LITE 和 $COHR 可能已经把大部分甚至全部产能分配给了 $NVDA，正如 Nvidia 去年对 EML 做的那样。 由于 Win 是 merchant foundry，想对它这么做更难，所以 $MRVL 大概率会直接去找 $SIVE，因为他们本来就符合 Celestial 的规格。
英文原文
$LITE and $COHR are probably majority/fully allocated to $NVDA after their deals. Since Nvidia did the same thing with EML last year. It's harder to do that with Win since they're a merchant foundry, so it's likely $MRVL just goes directly to $SIVE since they already fit Celestial specifications.
-
MRVL 长期受益于垂直整合
@O_bhaina $MRVL 长期会从把封装流程垂直整合中受益。 我猜他们很可能只是达成一笔交易，然后直接从 $SIVE、$MTSI，也许还有 $LITE 那里买激光器。
英文原文
@O_bhaina $MRVL benefits long term by vertically integrating the packaging process. They will likely just make a deal and buy lasers directly from $SIVE, $MTSI, and maybe $LITE is my guess.
-
当时市值和现金的对比
@CryptoZ4 你知道我发那条的时候股价大概才 5 美元，市值也就 6 亿左右，而且账上还有 4.2 亿现金。 https://t.co/bQl5AbpzG7
英文原文
@CryptoZ4 You do realized I posted that at ~$5 when the marketcap was like ~$600m off $420m cash. https://t.co/bQl5AbpzG7
-
LITE 更可能供给 NVDA
@adrian_jega $LITE 的大部分产能大概率是分给了 $NVDA，而不是 $MRVL。 Ayar 把 $LITE 从官网上移除了，而且在这之前他们主要是在 $SIVE、$MTSI 和 $LITE 之间多来源采购，这其实就是一个提示。 所以他们会需要别的激光合作伙伴。
英文原文
@adrian_jega $LITE likely has majority capacity allocated to $NVDA, not $MRVL. Ayar removed $LITE from their website and before they primarily multi-sourced between $SIVE, $MTSI, and $LITE which was a hint to that. So they'll need to find other laser partners.
-
SIVE 逻辑仍然完整
不，$SIVE 的 thesis 仍然完全成立，我还是认为它被低估了。 其中很大一部分原本是建立在 $JBL 1.6T 作为连接 CPO 放量的桥梁上。 但 $AMD 的 CPO 最终去了 $GFS，这件事把公司的风险大幅降下来了。再加上 $AAPL 的硅光市场，市场还没意识到。 我现在其实预期 $MRVL 也会像 $JBL 那样直接从 Sivers 采购。不过他们会先多来源，然后在买激光器之后把封装 IP 那一层垂直整合掉。 这长期看甚至可能比通过一个封装合作伙伴多一跳更能提升估值——像 Jabil、Marvell 这种直接接 T1 客户的方式。
英文原文
Nope, $SIVE thesis is fully in-tact and I still think it's undervalued. Lot of it was based on $JBL 1.6T bridging the gap into CPO ramp. But having $AMD CPO go with $GFS de-risked the company quite a massive amount. Then there's $AAPL SiPH markets don't know about yet. I'm honestly expecting $MRVL to buy directly from Sivers now like what $JBL did. But just multi-source + vertically integrate the packaging IP side of thing after buying lasers. That actually might increase the valuations more long term (direct to T1 like Jabil, Marvell) than one-hop through a packaging partner.
-
LITE 的产能分配影响 AM D/MRVL
这不算好消息，但也没那么糟。 $LITE 的产能大概率已经分给了 $NVDA，这也是为什么 $AMD 的 CPO（大概率）会去用 $SIVE + $GFS，我是这么猜的。 $MRVL 大概会直接从 $SIVE 买货，然后多来源，可能再加上 $MTSI，并把封装层在内部设计掉。
英文原文
It's not good news. But it's not that bad either. $LITE likely has capacity allocated toward $NVDA, which is why $AMD CPO (likely) went with $SIVE + $GFS is my guess. $MRVL will probably just buy from $SIVE directly and multi-source, maybe $MTSI and design out the packaging side of things in-house.
-
MRVL 可能直接买激光器
很有可能现在 $MRVL 会直接从 $COHR、$SIVE 或 $LITE 采购激光器。 这只会让 Marvell 的 Celestial 路线图延后一些。 但我一直都预期封装这层最终会被垂直整合，只是没想到这么快。 激光 IP 要复杂得多。 激光公司为什么都值几十亿美元，是有原因的。
英文原文
Highly likely now $MRVL just buys the lasers directly from $COHR, $SIVE, or $LITE. It just causes delays to Marvell Celestial roadmap. But I've always had expectations on the packaging side of things to get vertically integrated down the road, just not this soon. Laser IP is much, much more complex. There's a reason why all the laser companies are worth tens of billions.
-
POET 很可能被设计掉
@AD14977 我一直说 $POET 是最有可能在后面被设计掉的那个。 他们只是买激光器然后封装……而 $MRVL 完全可以直接去激光源头买，虽然这会让他们的路线图有些延迟。
英文原文
@AD14977 I've always said $POET is the most likely to get designed out down the road. They just buy lasers and package them... and $MRVL can just go directly to the laser source and do the same with some delays to their roadmap.
-
POET 单一客户风险高
@satyadeva97 @PhotonCap 对 $POET 来说，这不算过度反应。Poet 之前很大程度上存在单一客户集中风险，虽然他们后来也开始接到一些更小的客户。
英文原文
@satyadeva97 @PhotonCap For $POET, not an overreaction. Poet was largely single source customer concentration risk, although they started getting other smaller customers.
-
MRVL 可能自研中介层封装
$MRVL 很可能会把那个 interposer 封装 IP 变成内部能力。我原本就预计他们会在后面把 $POET 设计出去，只是没想到这么早。 他们完全可以直接从 $LITE 或 $SIVE 这种公司买激光器，然后自己搭建整个流程。 激光设计比封装难得多。
英文原文
$MRVL will likely do that interposer packaging IP in-house. I did expect them to design out $POET down the road, just not this early. They can just buy lasers directly from someone like $LITE or $SIVE and build the process themselves. Laser design is much much harder than the packaging side of things.
-
POET 持有者受伤
@MomentumBull 对……CFO 这一下确实重伤了所有 $POET 持有者。
英文原文
@MomentumBull yeah... the CFO just harmed all $POET holders a lot.
-
MRVL 要把封装垂直整合
@BrokeBoyCap 哦，我猜 $MRVL 是在买了 $SIVE 或 $LITE 这类公司的激光器之后，把封装流程垂直整合掉。 我之前说的就是这个，后面那一层比上游激光容易多了。
英文原文
@BrokeBoyCap Oh, I'm guessing $MRVL is vertically integrating the packaging process after buying the lasers from someone like $SIVE or $LITE. That's what I said earlier it's a lot easier to do that layer than upstream lasers.
-
SIVE 业务很分散
哦，$SIVE 肯定没问题，因为它们已经高度多元化了。 它们大概基本上服务所有人： -> $AAPL 硅光 -> $JBL（可能最大） -> $AMD CPO 项目配合 $GFS， -> Ayar -> Alchip/GUC 和其他 ASIC 设计商 -> O-Net ELS 还有其他客户。虽然这会在实质上让 2028-2029 年后期的预测稍微往后推一些（比如 Q4 5 亿美元、2029 年 10 亿美元）。 但如果它们的光源最终以某种方式进了 Marvell，我也不会惊讶。
英文原文
Oh $SIVE is definitely fine, since they're vastly diversified. They likely basically serve everyone: -> $AAPL Silicon Photonics -> $JBL (probably largest) -> $AMD CPO program with $GFS, -> Ayar -> Alchip/GUC and other ASIC designers -> O-Net ELS amongst others. Though this does materially slow later 2028-2029 projections a bit (eg. $500m Q4 Celestial, $1B 2029). But wouldn't be surprised if their light source ends up in Marvell one way or another.
-
Towa 被市场忽略了
@reallldealll 我觉得市场忽略了 Towa，因为你们这些存储厂商都在创纪录地增加 capex。 https://t.co/iVmufEGXF8
英文原文
@reallldealll I think markets missed Towa given record capex spend from all your memory makers https://t.co/iVmufEGXF8
-
欧洲和日本的垄断都在起飞
像 $LPK 这种欧洲“垄断”（玻璃核心基板）最近也在一路起飞。 $ALRIB 技术上是双寡头，但也在这条线上……（量子 / MBE） 日本那边也有像 Towa 这种（HBM4 / 压缩成型）我持有的名字。 通常垄断会拿到更高倍数。 我之后会慢慢提到更多，只是得先把它们都找出来。
英文原文
European “monopolies” like $LPK (Glass Core Substrates) have also been going brrr lately. $ALRIB is technically a duopoly but it’s there too… (Quantum / MBE) Then there’s some over in Japan like Towa for (HBM4/compression molding) too that I own. Usually monopolies get higher multiples. I'll mention some more over time, just gotta find them all.
-
SIVE 估值与客户映射
我现在给 $SIVE 的估值是 20 亿美元以上，并且认为它们明年能到 100 亿美元以上……2028 年还会更多。 它们在量产爬坡前可能已经有的用户： - $AMD CPO | $GFS - $MRVL CPO | $POET - $JBL 1.6T 光模块 - $AAPL 硅光 - $POET - Ayar - AlChip | Ayar - GUC | Ayar - O-Net ELS 还不算其他未确认的名字。 对一家 11 亿美元估值的激光公司来说，这简直离谱。甚至还没算上 TAM 扩张，比如新的超大规模云厂商客户，或者 $GOOGL / 三星跟着苹果走。 而且……“执行不确定性”其实已经被转嫁给 Win Semi，也就是 $AVGO 的代工方，所以这件事很让人安心。
英文原文
I value $SIVE $2B+ today, and think they can hit $10B+ next year... and more in 2028. Their likely existing users before volume ramp: - $AMD CPO | $GFS - $MRVL CPO | $POET - $JBL 1.6T Optical Transcivers - $AAPL Silicon Photonics - $POET - Ayar - AlChip | Ayar - GUC | Ayar - O-Net ELS Not including other unconfirmed ones. This is unholy coming from a laser company at a $1.1B valuation. And not even considering TAM expansion like new hyperscaler customers or $GOOGL / Samsung following Apple. Also... "execution uncertainty" is literally just passed along to Win Semi, the foundry for $AVGO, so this is chilling.
-
SIVE 可能是苹果供应链关键
现在很明显，$SIVE 很可能就是 $AAPL 的硅光“圣杯”供应商…… 市场只是还不知道而已（这就叫 Alpha）。 如果你想知道怎么把 Apple 映射到 Sivers： > “美国财富 100 强”客户。 > 每年 5000 万台规模的 RFQ（报价请求）。 > Apple 2022 年大约卖了 5390 万块 Apple Watch，年销量通常在 3800 万到 5000 万台之间。 > $SIVE / Carnegie research 发布了 135 个波长架构，这和 Apple 的应用规格匹配。 真的……全世界还有哪个美国财富 100 强公司能这么轻松地一年做 5000 万台消费穿戴设备？就连三星也就是 1000 万到 1500 万台。 这刚好和激光架构和应用场景对应上。 $SIVE 在 X 上还暗示过来自开发时间线的量产爬坡，我猜那是苹果（H2 2027 爬坡或 H1 2028），但也可能是 Ayar 或 Jabil。
英文原文
It's pretty clear by now that $SIVE is the likely holy grail silicon photonics supplier for $AAPL... Markets just don't know about it (this is called Alpha). If you're curious how to map Apple to Sivers: > "US Fortune 100" customer. > RFQ (request for quote) for 50 MILLION units a year. > Apple sold roughly 53.9 million Apple Watches in 2022 and averages between 38m-50m units annually > $SIVE / Carnegie research released 135 Wavelength arechitectures, which matches Apple application specifications. literally... what other US Fortune 100 company in world can casually produce 50 million units of consumer wearables a year? Even Samsung does 10-15M units. That coincidentally matches with the laser architecture and applications. $SIVE on their X did tease volume ramp from development timelines, which I guessed was Apple (H2 2027 ramp or H1 2028), but could be Ayar or Jabil.
-
每涨 10% 就捐狗舍
@k_a_y_b_e_e_ 你太好了！每次 $SIVE 涨 10%，我就期待关注者给狗狗收容所捐 1000 美元！
英文原文
@k_a_y_b_e_e_ How nice of you! Every time $SIVE goes up 10%, I have an expectation that followers donate $1K to a dog shelter!